There are a lot of uncertainties permeating the market right now, not the least of which is healthcare reform. Will that reform entail a public option that could add $1 trillion to the deficit?  How is reform going to be financed?  And is it going to mean higher costs for employers across the board, or just the healthcare insurers?

Investing is made infinitely more difficult when 18% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is hanging in the balance.

And you still have to consider:

• That unemployment is likely to keep rising, perhaps over 10%.
• That the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing is slowing down.
• That there is almost certainly a second wave of home foreclosures on top of the current commercial real estate epidemic.
• And that retail sales are still a long way from recovery.

There is also reason to believe that the U.S. dollar will continue to be weak, though it probably won’t sell off precipitously.

The U.S. dollar has weekend against the Euro lately, having fallen 0.8% Friday.  Technically speaking the chart shows a traditional “cup and handle” formation that could lead to an acceleration of the dollar’s downward trend.  Gold prices, up about 13% Friday, confirm this trend and could soon break through the $1000/oz resistance.

Fundamentally, if the economy – encumbered by high unemployment and a relapse of the housing market – does not pick up the dollar could be further imperiled.

Weakness in the dollar will also be affected by the Fed’s withdrawal of liquidity, which is likely to proceed at a gradual pace.

Finally, diversification away from the dollar among the world’s central banks is taking place, albeit at a slower pace than many analysts have suggested, and that too, is weakening the dollar.

Let’s concede that there is no currency that could supplant the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. So, it’s unlikely that the world’s central banks will simply abandon the dollar anytime soon. However, we must also acknowledge that a reduction in the weightings of the U.S. dollar within central bank reserves is already underway.

An Aug. 14 article by BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard in Euromoney recently described this gradual shift in currency reserves.  The article noted that only 62.5% of global currency reserves are in U.S. dollars, down from about 66% in 2005.

So I do not anticipate a sudden shift in central bank reserves, but rather a continuation of the measured restructuring we’ve seen so far. Thus, the slow weakening trend in the U.S. dollar is likely to continue.

So, in this very uncertain investment scenario, I prefer to go for more secure returns in bonds.  And we can achieve great diversification at a cheap cost with the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD).

For starters, its weighted average coupon of 6.26% offers a current yield slightly north of 6% at today’s prices.  Investors are assuming interest rate risk, which means that if interest rates climb, the value of the bond has to come down.  But in the short term, there is no immediate threat of inflation.

Looking at the major holdings of the fund – which has no single position that accounts for more than 1.26% of its total holdings – I see some names that have demonstrated continued stability and others that have shown recent signs of improvement, such as American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP).  So I do not expect any major credit spread hiccup here.  I certainly do not see any hiccup that a 6.26% coupon would not compensate for.

For an additional hedge against dollar weakness, I suggest you revisit my June 8 recommendation of the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). You may also consider buying a bit of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN) fund.  Do not go overboard. Err on being light, rather than heavy on hedging, since timing currency moves is very difficult.

Recommendation: buy iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD) at market.  Consider hedging part of the US dollar risk by buying the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). Both funds should account for a fraction of your position.  Have a 5% stop loss on UDN (**).

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund

He goes on to say, “But this talk will shift soon to the ‘now what’ questions of what to buy when we do reach that magical point.” Here Scott discusses the Mutual Fund’s cousin, the ETF, and how to take advantage of investing in one.

Many will shun individual stocks for the safety of mutual funds. And with the explosion of index funds, we’ve never had a larger variety of options to help us diversify. These index funds are designed to yield a return equal to that of a particular index. They allow you to purchase a variety of assets as a low-cost, passive-investment strategy. And there are a number of indexes that specify sectors, stock indexes and international markets.

It’s a powerful strategy that allows you to slice and dice the global economy in a risk-managed approach. But we don’t like to stop simply at reducing risk and diversification.

There’s another cousin to the mutual fund and index fund families that many investors have heard of but haven’t taken advantage of. If you own mutual funds, indexed or otherwise, you need to know if using exchange-traded funds (ETFs) makes more sense for you. Here’s what you need to know about ETFs, the close relative to your mutual funds…

Exchange-Traded Funds – Index Mutual Funds on Steroids

Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) were first introduced in 1993, and are based on index mutual funds. They use similar principles, but have fewer management and transaction costs associated with them.

Unlike mutual funds, which can be bought or sold only at the end of the day when NAV is calculated, you can trade ETFs throughout the day, just like a share of stock.

• Exchange-Traded Funds are a portfolio of shares that can be bought of sold as a single unit.
• You own a proportionate amount of the shares held, with some ETFs even allowing transfers-in-kind.
• They can range from portfolios that track broad global market indexes all the way down to very narrow industry indexes.
• Exchange-Traded Funds are becoming a preferred way for investors to get all of a mutual fund’s benefits, with none of the downsides.

Think of ETFs as mutual funds on steroids.

Exchange-Traded Funds Becoming More Popular

While exchange-traded funds are becoming more popular by the day, they weren’t always so highly regarded. In fact, the creator of The Vanguard 500 Index Fund was against them and vigorously attacked the possibility of their success. In the end, John Bogle ended up adding a whole series of ETFs to the Vanguard family.

ETF investments quickly competed against indexed mutual funds. By early 2007, over $400 billion was invested in over 300 ETFs in three general classes:

• Broad U.S. market indexes,
• Narrow industry or “sector” portfolios,
• And international indexes.

The first ETF, like the first indexed mutual fund, matched the S&P 500 index and was given the symbol SPDR for Standard and Poor’s Depository Receipt. Many know it by its nickname, the “spider.”

Spiders spawned many new exchange-traded fund products like “Diamonds” that are based on the Dow Jones Industrial Index DJIA, Qubes based on the Nasdaq 100 index, and WEBS based on the World Equity Benchmark Shares of a portfolio of foreign stock market indexes.

The Advantages of Exchange-Traded Funds Over Indexed Funds

A big advantage of an exchange-traded funds over a conventional index fund is that they trade continuously throughout the day. You can buy and sell ETF shares just like a share of stock, while with an indexed mutual fund – where the net asset value is quoted – you have to place an order to buy or sell but that doesn’t transact until after the market.

This can be frustrating if your technical analysis indicates a buy or sell trigger at some point during a trading session but the market moves too far for you to take advantage of it by the end of the trading day.

And unlike mutual funds, exchange traded funds can be sold short of purchased on margin like a share of stock.

When you analyze these factors in light of the fact that options also trade on exchange-traded funds you can place positions in the general market, global market, or industry sectors, where you can:

• Employ protective hedges with puts or calls on your long or short ETF portfolio.
• Use combined buy-write options strategies where you collect premium from the short sell of an option to compensate for the cost the long options – bull and bear spreads, calendar spreads, diagonal spreads, butterflies, iron condors and so on, are all available to you trading ETFs but NOT with indexed mutual funds.

Exchange-traded funds also have tax advantages over mutual funds:

• When large numbers of mutual fund investors redeeming their shares – but you don’t – the fund has to sell securities to meet the redemptions. This creates a capital gains tax that is passed on to the remaining shareholders.
• Which means you end up paying the other guy’s tax obligation!
• In an exchange-traded fund, when somebody else sells, they have to pay the tax, not you.
• And when very large trades redeem their positions in the ETF, the transactions is settled with shares of stock in the underlying portfolio – not triggering a stock sale by the fund sponsor and no bogus tax bill to you.

Using Exchange-Traded Funds: How to Put Your Index Mutual Fund on Steroids