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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Dollar Demand</title>
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		<title>What to Buy as the Dollar Stumbles</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-to-buy-as-the-dollar-stumbles/10314</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/what-to-buy-as-the-dollar-stumbles/10314#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Dec 2008 14:25:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[American Banks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CAT]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dollar Demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Federal Reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing advice]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SWHC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T Bills]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TADR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Treasury Bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Udn]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=10314</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Here are three things you can buy now to capitalize on spiking unemployment, crashing banks and the tumbling dollar. Earlier this week, Chairman Bernanke  and his cronies on the U.S. Federal Reserve did the unthinkable, indeed the  unimaginable. </p>
<p>In an effort to demonstrate how serious they are about this whole  “recession thing,” they stated that their new interbank  loan rate target was zero. Zip. Nada.</p>
<p>When asked if this meant they had run out of bullets, Bernanke implied they could always simply inject money  directly into the system by buying billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds.</p>
<p>This is actually a peculiar thought, because Treasury bonds  are the one asset that is actually in demand these days (whereas dollar demand  is actually&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are three things you can buy now to capitalize on spiking unemployment, crashing banks and the tumbling dollar. Earlier this week, Chairman Bernanke  and his cronies on the U.S. Federal Reserve did the unthinkable, indeed the  unimaginable. </p>
<p>In an effort to demonstrate how serious they are about this whole  “recession thing,” they stated that their new interbank  loan rate target was zero. Zip. Nada.</p>
<p>When asked if this meant they had run out of bullets, Bernanke implied they could always simply inject money  directly into the system by buying billions of dollars worth of Treasury bonds.</p>
<p>This is actually a peculiar thought, because Treasury bonds  are the one asset that is actually in demand these days (whereas dollar demand  is actually rather tepid).</p>
<p>In fact, Chairman Bernanke’s rather alarming statement  caused the U.S. dollar to fall against the euro by the biggest amount in the  latter currency’s history. The dollar also notched up a 13-year low against the  yen.</p>
<p><strong>Why Are They So Scared of American Banks?</strong></p>
<p>But let’s go back to T-Bills for a moment. Right now, there  is so much desire out there for the darn things, the Treasury Department can  actually offer interest rates of zero, and even less than zero, and they just  keep on selling.</p>
<p>To explain this, I’ve heard a dozen or so terms bandying  about: words like inflation, deflation and stagflation. What I want to know is  this: why would somebody want to buy T-Bills at zero percent, when they could  park them at most any American bank for 2% or 3%? And that’s just for  short-term notes – commit to a longer time spread and you can crank that up to  nearly 5%.</p>
<p>The only reason I can think of is that despite all the  efforts to secure the banks – all the billions and indeed trillions of dollars  we have poured into their coffers, and all the various deposit insurance  promises Washington has made – whoever is buying all those T-Bills has reason  to think America’s banks are <em>still </em>not  good risks right now.</p>
<p>And that’s a scary thought indeed.</p>
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<p><strong>No More Failures (Please?)</strong></p>
<p>In a press conference on Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of the  Treasury Henry Paulson assured us to the contrary. Paulson is so sure that the  banks are completely secure, he might not even ask for the second half of his  “TARP” money. <em>“I don’t </em><em>expect  any more major financial institutions to fail during the current credit crisis,”</em> he said.</p>
<p>Shortly after Paulson made this categorical statement, <strong>Morgan  Stanley (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=MS%3A+NYSE" target="_blank">MS: NYSE</a>)</strong> announced that it had lost another $2.2 billion in the  three months ending on Nov. 30.</p>
<p>They were kind enough to point out that while this loss was  some 558% higher than they had led folks to expect, it was actually a 39%  improvement over the same time period last year.</p>
<p>Another scary thought.</p>
<p><strong>The Wrong Kind of Record Gain</strong></p>
<p>Meanwhile, things are still tough down in the trenches  (where success or failure is measured by whether you still get a paycheck).  Last week saw new applications for unemployment surge to a 26-year high.</p>
<p>The only good news to come out of all that was analyst  expectations that unemployment had peaked. Unfortunately, we are now being told  to look out for another record-breaker.</p>
<p>Indeed, Nobel prize-winning “Neo-Keynesian” Professor Paul Krugman has warned that if Washington does not continue to  dump billions (if not trillions) into the economy, unemployment could climb as  high as 10%.</p>
<p>Krugman shouldn’t worry but so  much: The incoming Obama administration has pledged an immediate flow of  additional billions aimed directly at unemployment – not to mention a highway  and bridge program as big as anything we’ve seen since Eisenhower in the 1950s.</p>
<p><strong>The Perfect Accessories For Troubled Times</strong></p>
<p>So, given all that, here are a few things you might care to  invest in during these troubled times.</p>
<p>Back in the days of FDR, they used to call idle hands the  tools of the devil. Certainly unemployed folks are occasionally driven by  desperation to seek out cash by removing it from other folks’ wallets. Usually  by threat of force.</p>
<p>I don’t think that but so many middle-class working stiffs  are going to start carrying serious heat. In fact, <strong>Smith and Wesson (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Smith+and+Wesson" target="_blank">SWHC:  NASDAQ</a>)</strong> are in a bit of a pickle this quarter, as only their lower-margin  Saturday night specials seem to be selling well right now.</p>
<p>But I do think sales for those nifty little shock guns <strong>TASER  (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=TASER" target="_blank">TASR: NasdaqGS</a>)</strong> sells could be just the thing in 2009.</p>
<p style="text-align: center;" align="center"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/images/web/taipandaily/20081218tdimg.jpg" alt="UDN (PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund)" width="443" height="383" /></p>
<p>And if Obama is bound and determined to spend trillions  building roads, I suppose a few shares of <strong>Caterpillar (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=CAT%3A+NYSE" target="_blank">CAT: NYSE</a>)</strong> would do well as a stocking  stuffer.</p>
<p>Finally, I suspect that all these trillions and trillions of  loose dollars that Washington seems intent on forcing on us will quickly  reverse the minor deflation we have seen over the past few weeks. So I would  strongly suggest adding shares of <strong>PowerShares Bearish Dollar ETF (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=PowerShares+Bearish+Dollar" target="_blank">UDN</a>)</strong> as a hedge against the return of inflation.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/Taipan-Daily-121808.html">Source: What to Buy as the Dollar Stumbles</a></p>
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		<title>Gold Buyers Smash Records</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/gold-buyers-smash-records/9582</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/gold-buyers-smash-records/9582#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Dec 2008 17:18:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Doug Hornig</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dollar Demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dollar Value]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Doug Hornig]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Buyers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Demand]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Etfs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Spot Price Of Gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=9582</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>The spot price of gold has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high, reached in March of 2008. But if you think that means demand has declined, think again.</p>
<p>Gold demand has in fact exploded, and not just here and there. Everywhere. Around the world, customers have been queuing up to strip coin shops’ shelves bare. Mints have been running 24/7 and still have been forced to ration coin shipments to their dealers. ETF vaults are bulging.</p>
<p>Now, the World Gold Council has confirmed the trend with hard numbers for the third quarter of this year. In a page-and-a-half press release summarizing 3Q2008 activity, the WGC had to use the word “record” ten times. Some highlights:</p>
<ul style="padding-left: 20px;">
<li style="list-style-type: disc;">Dollar demand for gold in Q3&#8230;</li></ul>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The spot price of gold has fallen more than 20% from its all-time high, reached in March of 2008. But if you think that means demand has declined, think again.</p>
<p>Gold demand has in fact exploded, and not just here and there. Everywhere. Around the world, customers have been queuing up to strip coin shops’ shelves bare. Mints have been running 24/7 and still have been forced to ration coin shipments to their dealers. ETF vaults are bulging.</p>
<p>Now, the World Gold Council has confirmed the trend with hard numbers for the third quarter of this year. In a page-and-a-half press release summarizing 3Q2008 activity, the WGC had to use the word “record” ten times. Some highlights:</p>
<ul style="padding-left: 20px;">
<li style="list-style-type: disc;">Dollar demand for gold in Q3 was a record US$32 billion, 45% higher than the previous record, set in 2Q2008.</li>
<li style="list-style-type: disc;">Identifiable investment demand, which incorporates demand for gold through exchange-traded funds (ETFs), bars and coins, rose to $10.7 billion (12.3 million ounces), double year-earlier levels.</li>
<li style="list-style-type: disc;">Retail investment demand rose 121% to 7.5 million ounces, with strong bar and coin buying in the Swiss, German, and U.S. markets. Europe as a whole saw an all-time record 1.64 million ounces of bar and coin buying. France became a net investor in gold for the first time since the early 1980s.</li>
<li style="list-style-type: disc;">Gold ETFs posted a record quarterly inflow of 4.8 million ounces in Q3. After the collapse of Lehman Brothers in late September, ETF inflows shot higher by an unprecedented 3.6 million ounces in only five days.</li>
<li style="list-style-type: disc;">Demand for gold jewelry hit a record $18 billion. Leading the way was India, which witnessed a rise of 65% in dollar value (1.3 million ounces) compared with 3Q2007. The Middle East, Indonesia, and China all experienced increases of more than 40% in value or 10% in weight, year over year.</li>
</ul>
<p>At the same time that demand is setting records, supply has been unable to keep pace, falling 9.7% from year-earlier levels, the WGC reported. The drop was largely due to inaction on the part of central banks, which have increasingly shut their vault doors.</p>
<p>Heavy demand, declining supply… small wonder that gold prices have remained near record highs in most of the world’s currencies; that dealers have been marking up coins by 10% or even 15% (when they can get them); and that one-ounce coins still fetch bids close to $1,000 on eBay.</p>
<p>When will the spot price in U.S. dollars, which is set by the futures market, catch up? No one knows. But it will.</p>
<p>The world’s hunger for gold will only grow into a future awash in fiat currency. Gold is the ultimate and, at day’s end, the only safe haven from the kind of currency destruction that is being visited upon the dollar, the euro, even the renminbi, as governments everywhere desperately try to stave off a deflationary depression the only way they know how: by turning on the printing press.</p>
<p>We are in a period of intense monetary inflation. It will be followed, inevitably, by a long period of price inflation. People will be desperate to preserve the buying power of their dollars, euros, etc., and they will turn to the one thing capable of doing just that. Gold.</p>
<p>As gold rises, it will lift the shares of selected mining companies with it. The ones that prosper the most will be those that have positioned themselves to survive the credit crisis &#8212; by stockpiling cash, keeping production costs down, and locking up borrowed money on favorable terms.</p>
<p>Companies that have failed to do this will go under, unable to get credit in a frozen market. That will both diminish competition and further curb supply, and those that properly planned ahead will rake in enormous profits as gold goes through the roof. Or more likely, as Casey Research founder <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com"  class="alinks_links">Doug Casey</a> puts it, gold “heads to the moon.”</p>
<p>But which are the companies poised to profit the most? The ones we cover in our monthly newsletter for conservative investors, <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=122&amp;ppref=KCR123ED1208A" target="_blank">BIG GOLD</a>.</p>
<p>We are dedicated to bringing you the information that will allow you profitably to pick your way through the present economic minefield. We search the world of producing gold miners, to find the best of the best. We pinpoint the investments that will not only hold on through a market downturn, but will rebound spectacularly as the commodities market recovers, which it must.</p>
<p>In addition, we bring subscribers the best ways to invest in physical gold, including where to find coins and bars at affordable prices in times of extreme scarcity &#8212; like right now, when mints are not minting, most dealers are out of stock, and those still taking orders are charging exorbitant premiums.</p>
<p>While we specialize in producing companies, we also cover such alternative gold investments as ETFs, mutual funds, royalty companies, and closed-end funds. We strive to find what’s best for you. And we answer your specific questions, each month in our <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=122&amp;ppref=KCR123ED1208A" target="_blank">BIG GOLD</a> <em>Responds</em> section.</p>
<p>The elaborate world financial structure that has been erected over the past two decades created a humongous bubble that has now popped. What will come in the aftermath of this cataclysm cannot be foreseen, but it will be different. One thing is for certain, though, gold has been money, in all times and places, for thousands of years. The people of the world are already returning to it as the sole store of value, and that’s a trend that will accelerate in the coming years. You can count on it.</p>
<p>Learn how to make the trend your friend with a 3-month, no-risk subscription to BIG GOLD… and as an added bonus, receive our hot-off-the-press special report “The Crisis in Pictures” absolutely FREE of charge. <a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/crpmkt/crpSolo.php?id=122&amp;ppref=KCR123ED1208A" target="_blank">Click here to continue</a>…</p>
<p><a href="http://www.caseyresearch.com/library/articles/2422/gold-buyers-smash-records-12/3/08/">Source: Gold Buyers Smash Records</a></p>
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