Tuesday morning starts off with the final GDP report for the third quarter, and it looks like there won’t be any changes to the figure since the last report. As it stands, the report will likely show a contraction of a half-percent for the quarter. In my opinion, with everything that has transpired in the market, that isn’t so bad. If you think about all the job losses, failed businesses, etc. it seems like it could have been much worse.

The other big reports on Tuesday are the Existing Home Sales and New Home Sales reports for November. The Existing Home Sales report is expected to show a drop of 50k units, and the New Home Sales is likely to report a drop of 13k units. Without being able to see the breakdown per region, it is tough to say if this shows the further decline of the housing market, or if it is simply a seasonal slowdown in the Midwest and Northeast. I would tend to believe it is the latter.

Wednesday sees all three reports announced simultaneously at 8:30 am. The Durable Goods report for November is likely to show another dip of over three percent. Without sounding like a broken record, this shouldn’t surprise anyone. No one has money to purchase big-ticket items, Christmas discounts or not.

The other two announcements on Wednesday are the Personal Income and Personal Spending reports for November. Personal Income is expected to hold steady from last month, while the Spending report is likely to show another decline. Since the holiday shopping season really kicked off at the very tail end of last month, it probably didn’t boost the Spending report last month, but I definitely expect it to boost the December report.

Have a safe holiday break.

Source: GDP and Home Sales Highlight A Short, But Very Busy Week

There are plenty of reports this week, but not one that could be considered ‘encouraging’. Both ISM reports this week are expected to show further contraction. The ISM Index is anticipated to show a slight decline down to a reading of 38, while the ISM Service report will likely show a very slight decline to 42.6. Both of these reports need to show a reading above 50 to indicate expansion, so they have a long way to go to reach that threshold.

The Factory Orders report for October is anticipated to show a nearly three percent slowdown, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this report be worse than expected. Last Wednesday the Durable Goods report showed the biggest drop since October 2006, and I think that this will also carry over to Factory Orders. A slowdown of over three percent won’t be shocking, and could push four to five percent.

The employment reports continue to be the darkest cloud over the market. The Non-Farm Payrolls report for November is announced Friday, and it looks like the economy will shed another 300,000 jobs. When this report is announced, I wouldn’t be blown away if they revise Octobers report to show a greater loss of jobs than initially thought.  The rate of job loss is accelerating, not slowing. At this rate, the country will shed a staggering 1.75 million jobs this year.

Source: Factory Orders and Employment Reports Continue to Drag Down The Market