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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Eastern Europe</title>
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		<title>Contrarian Companies Expanding During Gloomy Economy</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/contrarian-companies-expanding-during-gloomy-economy/14696</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Mar 2009 14:57:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Adam Lass</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lass]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ANN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BBY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CCI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Poll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[DIS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Great Depression]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[JWN]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luxury goods]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Massive Unemployment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[retail sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SKS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SSL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[WMT]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Massive unemployment? No problem! Adam Lass of the <a href="http://www.taipanpublishing.com"  class="alinks_links">Taipan</a> Publishing Group says that no one is buying luxury goods right now but he gives us two puts in the retail sector that are playing out well during the crisis.  </p>
<p>He also shares a British health care conglomerate that provides aid for troubled times and “sells even better when folks are broke.”</p>
<p>This from Adam:</p>
<blockquote><p>Buy into Eastern Europe&#8217;s depression or just make 114% on  ours: It&#8217;s your shot to call.</p>
<p>In case you hadn&#8217;t noticed, retail is in a bit of a pickle  these days. The Conference Board&#8217;s latest consumer poll puts their Confidence  Index down another 12.4 points, to yet another all-time low at 25.</p>
<p>Keeping in mind that anything below 50 is considered&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Massive unemployment? No problem! Adam Lass of the <a href="http://www.taipanpublishing.com"  class="alinks_links">Taipan</a> Publishing Group says that no one is buying luxury goods right now but he gives us two puts in the retail sector that are playing out well during the crisis.  </p>
<p>He also shares a British health care conglomerate that provides aid for troubled times and “sells even better when folks are broke.”</p>
<p>This from Adam:</p>
<blockquote><p>Buy into Eastern Europe&#8217;s depression or just make 114% on  ours: It&#8217;s your shot to call.</p>
<p>In case you hadn&#8217;t noticed, retail is in a bit of a pickle  these days. The Conference Board&#8217;s latest consumer poll puts their Confidence  Index down another 12.4 points, to yet another all-time low at 25.</p>
<p>Keeping in mind that anything below 50 is considered bad,  I&#8217;d have to say that a score of half that ought to be considered really bad.</p>
<p>No shock there, I suppose, since we are looking at massive  unemployment right about now. As of late last week, the official figure had us  at 8.1%, a 25-year high water mark for folks who are slowly sinking under  water.</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s only looking at it percentage-wise. Our  population has grown roughly 45% since 1985, and 140% since 1930, so it&#8217;s safe  to say that there are probably more folks hanging around the corner wasting  time then ever before in the history of the country, including the dark days of  the Great Depression.</p>
<p>Depressing indeed, but before you start thinking this is  another one of Lass&#8217; loads of unalloyed dreck, I actually have found another  one of those oddball companies looking to expand during this dismal episode.</p>
<p><strong>But First&#8230; More Dreck!</strong></p>
<p>There is an odd thing about the current wreckage. Back in  2000, the majority of American households were involved in the stock market in  one way or another. This was the dawn of online investing, when most any shmoe  who could type their name with two fingers could get a trading account. Inside  the biz, many still refer to the tech boom and ensuing crash as the &#8220;March of  the Morons.&#8221;</p>
<p>Not very nice, but there it is. But don&#8217;t fret too much,  because this most recent crash was in many ways the exact opposite. This time  around, it was the wise guys themselves who sank trillions into unfathomable, unvaluable, and in the end, valueless debt arbitrage. The  very folks who should have known better fell deepest into the briar patch.</p>
<p>As a result, mega-discounters like <strong>Wal-Mart (<a title="Google Finance: (WMT:NYSE)" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=WMT%3ANYSE" target="_blank">WMT:NYSE</a>)</strong> are  actually reporting modest but significant increases in sales, while high-end  outfits <strong>Saks (<a title="Google Finance: (SKS:NYSE)" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=SKS%3ANYSE" target="_blank">SKS:NYSE</a>)</strong>, <strong>Nordstrom (<a title="Google Finance: (JWN:NYSE)" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=JWN%3ANYSE" target="_blank">JWN:NYSE</a>)</strong>, and <strong>Ann Taylor (<a title="Google Finance: (ANN:NYSE)" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ANN%3ANYSE" target="_blank">ANN:NYSE</a>)</strong> are  reporting withering sales declines.</p>
<p>The folks in the Ann Taylor corner suite at 7 Times Square  (one wonders how long they will be able to afford THAT address eh?) are  specifically blaming the 20% plunge in Q4 on the fact that a remarkable number  of women no longer require the &#8220;business attire&#8221; that is ANN&#8217;s stock in trade.  The future is so &#8220;volatile&#8221; right now (that&#8217;s biz slang for &#8220;god-awful&#8221;) the  team at ANN won&#8217;t even put out a forecast for next quarter.</p>
<div>
<div style="border: 1px solid #debe7c; padding: 4px; background: #f2ead7 none repeat scroll 0% 0%; width: 500px; text-align: left;">
<p>If you didn&#8217;t turn <strong>every $1000 you invested last year into 113 GRAND</strong>, you really need to give me the next five minutes of your time&#8230;</p>
<p>As the Dow lost 40% of its value in 2008, one unorthodox analyst steered his readers to optimized one-year gains of 6,635%, 10,838%, and 11,359%.</p>
<p><a title="Get eight months worth of his biggest gainers for 2009 FREE" href="https://www.web-purchases.com/WOW/NWOWK308/landing.html" target="_blank">Here&#8217;s how to get eight months worth of his biggest gainers for 2009 FREE&#8230;</a></div>
</div>
<p><strong>The Two Fashion Items That Sell Even Better When Folks Are Broke</strong></p>
<p>But there is one &#8220;wearable&#8221; shop that is not pulling in its  horns. In fact, it is looking to expand its offerings into Eastern Europe. And  yes, they know that the once-and-future Eastern Bloc is melting down as fast as  (if not faster than) we are here in the States. In fact, they are counting on  it.</p>
<p>I am referring to <strong>SSL International  PLC (<a title="Bloombery (SSL:LN)" href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/quote?ticker=SSL%3ALN" target="_blank">SSL:LN</a>)</strong>. This Brit healthcare conglomerate has the rights to  distribute Dr. Scholl&#8217;s foot aids overseas. Just imagine all those sore, tired  guys pounding the pavement looking for jobs! But SSL&#8217;s  real winner in these troubled times is their Durex condoms line.</p>
<p>As per Chief Executive Officer Garry Watts, SSL intends on  using the downturn to bump its stake 50% in a unit that distributes  contraceptives to Russia and nine other eastern European countries. And that&#8217;s  just the first kiss, as it were: By 2010 they hope to buy up the entire  operation.</p>
<p><strong>Blunt and to the Point</strong></p>
<p>In a recent interview with Bloomberg&#8217;s Kari Lundgren and  Howard Mustoe, Watts put it rather succinctly: <em>&#8220;Russian people aren&#8217;t going  to stop having sex any more than British people are. We&#8217;re not immune from the  downturn, but it&#8217;s a bit like Pizza Hut: If you&#8217;re not going out, then you  might be willing to drop a five-pound vibrator ring into your trolley.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Hey, he said it, not me, folks. Okay, stinky feet and  Russian condoms are slightly unsettling thoughts (especially around lunchtime).  But Watt&#8217;s got a point and he&#8217;s grinning when he makes it, which makes him  different than 95% of the CEOs I speak with these days, who can barely manage a  forced rictus smile.</p>
<p>If this is just too much for you to wrap your mind around,  and you still want to grab a piece of the action in the &#8220;Retail Space,&#8221; you can  always pick up some of the puts we are recommending in my own <em>WaveStrength</em><em> Options Weekly </em>column.</p>
<p>Like I mentioned earlier, no one is buying luxury goods.  Thus, our <strong>Best Buy (<a title="Google Finance: (BBY:NYSE)" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=BBY%3ANYSE" target="_blank">BBY:NYSE</a>)</strong> play is up some 40% as I sit to write, while our <strong>Disney (<a title="Google Finance: (DIS:NYSE)" href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=DIS%3ANYSE" target="_blank">DIS:NYSE</a>)</strong> play is up  114%.</p>
<p><strong>Source: <a href="http://www.taipanpublishinggroup.com/taipan-daily-030909.html">Pick Me Up a Three-Pack When You Go Out, Dear</a></strong></p></blockquote>
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		<title>A Bottom in Sight? Buffett Wisdom, Energy Crisis, Eastern Europe and More!</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-bottom-in-sight-buffett-wisdom-energy-crisis-eastern-europe-and-more/14416</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-bottom-in-sight-buffett-wisdom-energy-crisis-eastern-europe-and-more/14416#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Mar 2009 11:42:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Addison Wiggin</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Addison Wiggin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AIG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Asset Backed Securities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Citigroup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Exchange Shares]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[HSBC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Backed Securities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mortgage Loans]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[stock rally]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TALF]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Citi sets a record… how it could signal a market bottom by June&#8230;Dan Amoss on a &#8220;rescue&#8221; program that might work as advertised — and even touch off a stock rally&#8230; Buffett dispenses more pearls of wisdom… highlights of his annual letter to shareholders&#8230; Byron King on the energy crisis the government must solve… soon&#8230; U.S. still doesn’t have it that bad… the new Iron Curtain forming in the EU</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"> <strong>1.87 billion shares of Citigroup exchanged hands on Friday.</strong> That’s easily a record, not just for Citi, but for any stock in the history of the New York Stock Exchange. Shares in the company dropped almost 40%, to $1.40.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="center">
<div>
<div></div>
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</p><p class="BodyCopy" align="left">The former record holder WorldCom traded 1.5 billion shares on July 1, 2002. The&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Citi sets a record… how it could signal a market bottom by June&#8230;Dan Amoss on a &#8220;rescue&#8221; program that might work as advertised — and even touch off a stock rally&#8230; Buffett dispenses more pearls of wisdom… highlights of his annual letter to shareholders&#8230; Byron King on the energy crisis the government must solve… soon&#8230; U.S. still doesn’t have it that bad… the new Iron Curtain forming in the EU</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_00.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>1.87 billion shares of Citigroup exchanged hands on Friday.</strong> That’s easily a record, not just for Citi, but for any stock in the history of the New York Stock Exchange. Shares in the company dropped almost 40%, to $1.40.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="center">
<div>
<div><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/CouldItBe.gif" alt="" width="470" height="302" /></div>
</div>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">The former record holder WorldCom traded 1.5 billion shares on July 1, 2002. The S&amp;P 500 set a bottom three months later. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_21.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> But on this snowy Monday, during the winter of our discontent, <strong>a bottom seems unlikely anytime soon.</strong> The Dow opened down 100 points today, breaching the 7,000 level for the first time since 1996. On this leg down, if the Dow goes back to Greenspan’s original proclamation of “irrational exuberance,” it will hit 6,500. He first said those words on Dec. 5, 1996. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">If the Dow continues to follow the Japanese example, a 27-year low would bring it all the way back to 1,000 during the life of this bear market.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z00_31.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>“I don’t think the market appreciates,”</strong> says Dan Amoss, <strong>“how much the </strong> <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/banking-record-washington-spends-psychological-shift-major-cds-event-data-disaster-and-more/"><strong>TALF</strong> </a> <strong> could help restart lending.</strong> </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Last fall’s screeching halt in bank lending was greatly exacerbated by the crisis of confidence in securitization. Prior to the crisis, many of the consumer, business and mortgage loans originated by banks were sold into asset-backed securities and mortgage-backed securities.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Securitization was abused to the point that it exacerbated the lending bubble; banks quickly reopened the lending capacity of their balance sheets as soon as they securitized loans and sold them to investors. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Securitization lies at the root of the collapse in lending standards, but that’s another story for another time. Longtime Strategic Investment readers will recall my view, starting over two years ago, that reckless securitization would lead to major problems once investors noticed the toxicity of the asset-backed securities they were buying. It was the primary reason I recommended the UltraShort Financials ETF in July 2007. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“The comparison is not perfect, but depending on its success, the TALF could provide stability to the securitization market, or “shadow banking system,” much in the way that the FDIC guarantees stabilized the banking system during the Great Depression. This could lead to a rally in economically sensitive stocks that have been sold down to distressed levels.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_13.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>Considering Friday’s debacle for Citigroup, we’re not surprised to hear Abu Dhabi is “carefully assessing” its $7.5 billion investment in the bank.</strong> </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">The wealthiest of the UAE’s emirates, Abu Dhabi’s got a bit of a dilemma on its hands: Its billions in convertible bonds will convert to shares this time next year. Once the date comes, the bonds will convert between $31-37 a share… just a bit higher than Citi’s current $1.50 bid. That’s assuming, of course, that the U.S. government won’t wipe out all the shares by then via sudden nationalization. Either way, should add an interesting twist for the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund… and fifth largest petroleum exporter.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z01_30.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> The mood in the market is as grim as our most famous investor. When he participated in the panel following the premiere of <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/iousa.html">I.O.U.S.A., </a> Warren Buffett shocked many of the film’s makers by playing the token Pollyanna. He all but dismissed the possibility that the U.S. faces a crisis of any kind.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">Today, a scant six months later, Mr. Pollyanna is singing a different tune:</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><strong>“The economy will be in shambles throughout 2009,”</strong> Buffett wrote in his annual letter to shareholders over the weekend, “and, for that matter, probably well beyond.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">The above is certainly the most headline worthy quote of his latest missive, and the one that’s got most Buffett disciples running for cover. But of course, there were plenty of little nuggets of wisdom in his yearly letter. Here are a few:</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">– “In poker terms, the Treasury and the Fed have gone ‘all in.’ Economic medicine that was previously meted out by the cupful has recently been dispensed by the barrel. These once-unthinkable dosages will almost certainly bring on unwelcome aftereffects. Their precise nature is anyone’s guess, though one likely consequence is an onslaught of inflation.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">– “Our long-avowed goal is to be the ‘buyer of choice’ for businesses –  particularly those built and owned by families. The way to achieve this goal is to deserve it. That means we must keep our promises; avoid leveraging up acquired businesses; grant unusual autonomy to our managers; and hold the purchased companies through thick and thin (though we prefer thick and thicker).”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">– “Home purchases should involve an honest-to-God down payment of at least 10% and monthly payments that can be comfortably handled by the borrower’s income. That income should be carefully verified.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Putting people into homes, though a desirable goal, shouldn’t be our country’s primary objective. Keeping them in their homes should be the ambition.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">– “The investment world has gone from underpricing risk to overpricing it. This change has not been minor; the pendulum has covered an extraordinary arc. A few years ago, it would have seemed unthinkable that yields like today’s could have been obtained on good-grade municipal or corporate bonds even while risk-free governments offered near-zero returns on short-term bonds and no better than a pittance on long-terms.” </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">– “When the financial history of this decade is written, it will surely speak of the Internet bubble of the late 1990s and the housing bubble of the early 2000s. But the U.S. Treasury bond bubble of late 2008 may be regarded as almost equally extraordinary.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Clinging to cash equivalents or long-term government bonds at present yields is almost certainly a terrible policy if continued for long.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z02_46.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>Yet the U.S. government pumped $30 billion more taxpayer dollars into AIG this morning.</strong> The injection came as the doomed insurer announced a $61.7 billion quarterly loss. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">That’s a record for any publicly traded American company and even bigger than the group anticipated a few weeks ago. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">Last year, AIG lost just under $100 billion. That’s around $3,200 for every second of the year. We’re impressed. Losing that much money that fast takes talent. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">Today’s injection brings Uncle Sam’s AIG tab up to $180 billion. In exchange, you own almost 80% of the company… that you’ll never see. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_14.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>Two more banks failed over the weekend.</strong> The 15th and 16th failure of 2009 will nick another $100 million notch in the FDIC’s belt.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_22.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>Consumer spending in the U.S. registered a surprise gain in January,</strong> the Commerce Dept. said today. After falling a record six months in a row, spending popped up 0.6% during the month. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">At the same time, personal savings in the U.S. has shot up to 5%. That’s the highest level since 1995. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">Hmmn…. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_38.jpg" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> The climbing savings rate explains this phenomenon too. <strong>The dollar index, still the ultimate flight to “safety” (sic) is just below 89 — its highest level since April 2006.</strong> </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_45.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>Investors are showing commodities no mercy during today’s sell-off.</strong> Oil is down $4 a barrel, now just clinging to $40. Even gold can’t withstand the pressure… it’s down almost $30, to $933. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z03_50.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>“The U.S. had better start looking for someplace else to store its high-level nuclear waste,”</strong> declares Byron King, with today’s energy opportunity. “Because they won’t be storing the waste at Yucca Mountain, Nev. This week, the Obama administration announced that it will not support the 20-year-long, $10 billion project to store waste at Yucca Mountain, located about 100 miles northwest of Las Vegas.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“The new administration had better start an alternative soon, and move fast. Almost every one of 104 operating U.S. nuclear power plants are either out of room for on-site storage or nearly so. And then we have to deal with the many forms of nuclear waste generated in government labs and everyday nongovernment industry. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“This ranges from the U.S. nuclear weapons complex to the medical arena and things like metallurgical testing and oil well logging. The nuclear waste that comes from these activities presents a serious problem, with no solution in sight. Lack of storage is a key roadblock to the expanded use of nuclear power in the U.S. Every nuclear-related project needs to show how it will handle nuclear waste from cradle to grave. So what happens when there’s no grave?</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Canceling the Yucca Mountain project may feel good to longtime critics. Indeed, canceling Yucca Mountain may even be the right thing to do. We’ll find out over the next century or so. But right now, we have a problem. Where else to store large volumes of high-level nuclear waste? Any volunteers? No, I didn’t think so. All the wise heads at DOE and in the U.S. nuclear industry had better get their thinking caps on. And whoever figures it out will probably make some serious money.” </p>
<p> For more from Byron, be sure to check out his latest special report: <a href="https://www.web-purchases.com/OST_Penny/EOSTK300/landing.html">How to Buy Gold for a Penny per Ounce. </a></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_20.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>“Your reader <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/government-mega-budget-big-gdp-revision-gold-advice-water-crisis-and-more/">complains</a> ,”</strong> writes a reader, “that letting the big banks fail will be more than ugly, that it will be Armageddon. I have spent hours a day online reading about this crisis, and have found not a single article explaining in any significant detail how this conclusion is reached. The Fed and Treasury refuse to disclose the extent of the problem for two reasons: 1) fear of spreading panic, and 2) fear of disclosing the banks’ ‘trade secrets.’ We’re even denied the knowledge of how our money has already been spent. Bloomberg and Fox News have both filed FOIA lawsuits that the Fed is fighting. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“It’s not enough to describe the situation as a ‘house of cards.’ Let’s open the process to daylight, bring in outside persons who are likely to question our existing authorities (I’d nominate Buffett, Roubini, Taleb and Santelli to start). Have this group perform the ‘stress test,’ not the idiots who couldn’t and didn’t see this coming. An audit by the people who are to blame for the problem is NOT going to restore public confidence, any more than would a urine test by Barry Bonds’ trainer.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“Indeed, when I saw the stress test parameters issued yesterday by the Fed, I concluded that Geithner has already peed in Citigroup’s cup.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><strong>The 5:</strong> Charming. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_40.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>At least we’re not in Europe, eh?</strong> This miniature Hooverville is parked outside the capital in Kiev.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="center"><img style="width: 470px; height: 369px;" src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/kiev.bmp" alt="" width="470" height="369" /></p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">We saw what happened to the rest of Europe last month when Russia and Ukraine had their little pipeline tiff… hard to imagine the energy crisis that would result from total economic failure. </p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z04_47.jpg" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> <strong>“Central Europe’s refinancing needs in 2009 could total 300 billion euro, 30% of the region’s GDP,”</strong> declared Hungarian Prime Minister Ferenc Gyurcsany. He said over the weekend that the richer EU members should set up a $200 billion fund to help keep union alive. Germany has already rejected the bailout… France and Italy will likely follow.</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“A significant crisis in Eastern Europe would trigger political tensions and immigration pressures. With a Central and Eastern European population of 350 million, of which 100 million are in the EU, a 10% increase in unemployment would lead to at least 5 million unemployed people within the EU…</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left">“We should not allow that a new Iron Curtain should be set up and divide Europe.”</p>
<p class="BodyCopy" align="left"><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/5MIN/z05_00.gif" border="0" alt="" hspace="0" align="baseline" /> Across the English Channel, Europe’s biggest bank is in dire straits too. <strong>HSBC was forced to raise over $17 billion today after announcing its 2008 income crashed 68%. </strong> The bank will issue over 5 billion new shares, Britain’s biggest ever rights issue. The mega bank also announced a 29% dividend cut. </p>
<p>Source: <a rel="bookmark" href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/5min/a-bottom-in-sight-buffett-wisdom-energy-crisis-eastern-europe-and-more/">A Bottom in Sight? Buffett Wisdom, Energy Crisis, Eastern Europe and More!</a></p>
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		<title>Saying &#8220;NO&#8221; To Eastern Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/saying-no-to-eastern-europe/14373</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/saying-no-to-eastern-europe/14373#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Mar 2009 14:15:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US Dollar & Forex Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AIG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canadian Dollar]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Chuck Butler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Currencies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Currencies]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Dollar continues to rally&#8230;  John Taylor buys dollars&#8230;  Canada sees a deficit!  More bailout funding&#8230;                                             And Now&#8230; Today&#8217;s Pfennig!<br />
Good day&#8230; And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to March too! Here and a lot of the country saw March come in like a lion, which means it should go out like a lamb, right? Let&#8217;s hope it begins turning in that direction before month-end! 9 days before I leave for Florida, the countdown begins!</p>
<p>Well&#8230; The currencies continue to trade heavy under the pressure of the dollar, and the &#8220;flight to safety&#8221; in Treasuries&#8230; The euro has lost the 1.26 handle and continues to look weaker and weaker all the time. The latest move down came as a result of new&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Dollar continues to rally&#8230;  John Taylor buys dollars&#8230;  Canada sees a deficit!  More bailout funding&#8230;                                             And Now&#8230; Today&#8217;s Pfennig!<br />
Good day&#8230; And a Marvelous Monday to you! Welcome to March too! Here and a lot of the country saw March come in like a lion, which means it should go out like a lamb, right? Let&#8217;s hope it begins turning in that direction before month-end! 9 days before I leave for Florida, the countdown begins!</p>
<p>Well&#8230; The currencies continue to trade heavy under the pressure of the dollar, and the &#8220;flight to safety&#8221; in Treasuries&#8230; The euro has lost the 1.26 handle and continues to look weaker and weaker all the time. The latest move down came as a result of new that Eurozone leaders rejected a request for Eastern Europe aid&#8230; Here&#8217;s the skinny on that&#8230;</p>
<p>Hungary had proposed that Eastern European countries like themselves, Poland and the Czech Republic, receive loans totaling 180 Billion euros ($227 Billion dollars worth) from the Eurozone&#8230; Shot down&#8230;.. I don&#8217;t want to be&#8230; Shot down! Ahhh, a little April Wine this morning&#8230; But getting back to this latest development, this news of a rejection, leaves the Eastern European countries hanging, and trading this week, or until something changes, outside the euro&#8230; In other words, the Eastern European Countries, like Hungary, and the other two mentioned above, normally trade partially on their own, and partially with the backing of the euro, since these three particularly were once considered to be on the &#8220;fast track&#8221; to euro conversion.</p>
<p>So&#8230; Not only do the Eastern European currencies get taken to the woodshed, in today&#8217;s environment with bailouts being the norm, the euro gets taken to the woodshed too for not &#8220;bailing out&#8221; their brothers&#8230;</p>
<p>This is what we&#8217;ve come to folks&#8230; If you&#8217;re not going deeper in debt, and bailing everyone and their brother, nobody likes you any more! I read one person&#8217;s thought on the Eurozone rejection, and they immediately stuck a knife in the Eurozone, saying &#8220;this shows European countries are behind the curve. They are acting against a global crisis with national measures.&#8221; Hmmm&#8230; Ward&#8230; You were a little hard on the Beaver last night, weren&#8217;t you?</p>
<p>The other BIG NEWS this morning was a report that John Taylor, who manages $11.4 Billion as chairman of New York-based FX Concepts, Inc. Let&#8217;s listen in&#8230; &#8220;Whenever a banking system realizes it&#8217;s in big trouble, it says, I have to take care of my next door neighbors and the businesses down the block. Then the currency of that country, it its banks are big in international lending like the U.S., will strengthen.&#8221;</p>
<p>Needless to say, but, it certainly sounds like Mr. Taylor, has drunk the kool-aid, and is buying dollars along with the others seeking a &#8220;safe haven&#8221;&#8230;</p>
<p>I tell you this, because, someone wrote me recently, and said that I only print commentaries that agree with my stance&#8230; So there! This guy is HUGE, and he&#8217;s buying dollars!</p>
<p>Well, the revision to 4th QTR GDP printed much worse than forecast on Friday&#8230; Let&#8217;s see what the Wall Street Journal had to say about it&#8230; &#8220;Gross domestic product decreased at a seasonally adjusted 6.2% annual rate October through December, the Commerce Department reported in a new, revised estimate of fourth-quarter GDP. The sharply lower revision reflected adjustments downward of inventory investment, exports and consumer spending.</p>
<p>The 6.2% decline meant the worst quarterly showing for GDP since a 6.4% decrease in first-quarter 1982 GDP.</p>
<p>But&#8230; With like all &#8220;bad data&#8221; in recent times, the traders flocked to the dollar and U.S. Treasuries&#8230; Makes no sense to me, but then, I think logically&#8230; Not like some Ivy leaguer that never spent time in the mail room, learning the business from the bottom up&#8230; Wait! How did that thought go into my feelings about one of the reasons this mess is so bad? I was saving those thoughts for a &#8220;rainy day&#8221;&#8230; Oh well, there&#8217;s a hint as to where that discussion might go, when I decide to really &#8220;let loose&#8221;!</p>
<p>Obviously, a decline of 6.2% is pretty dis-heartening for those that believe the recession will be V-shaped&#8230; Buzzzzzzzz! Thank you for playing, there&#8217;s a nice parting gift for you at the door!</p>
<p>The data cupboard is stocked and ready to yield a plethora of data this week! We start today with Personal Income and Spending, and end the week with the Jobs Jamboree, in between we&#8217;ll see the ISM Index (manufacturing), Pending Homes Sales, the Fed&#8217;s Beige Book, and more! So, we won&#8217;t be void of data to talk about this week.</p>
<p>It looks like January will be the month that sees jobs losses greater than 600K, as the &#8220;experts&#8221; have forecast the total job loss for January at 650K! Aye, Yay, Yay&#8230; That&#8217;s just awful! The unemployment rate is expected to hit 7.9%, but don&#8217;t be surprised if it prints a snowman&#8230; That&#8217;s an 8 for you non-golfers, bad golfers I should say! I still believe that the unemployment rate will reach 8.5% before this is all over, and that&#8217;s even taking into consideration that Obama&#8217;s Stimulus is a smashing success! (here&#8217;s the kicker though, that no one&#8217;s talking about regarding these jobs that will be created by the Obama stimulus&#8230; For the most part, they will all be &#8220;short-term jobs&#8221;. What happens when those &#8220;short-term jobs&#8221; end?)</p>
<p>OK&#8230; Enough! The data will print when it prints, so I&#8217;ll just leave it there&#8230;</p>
<p>Back to Treasuries for a minute&#8230; A reader sent me a note that the 5-year Treasury auction priced at 1.92% yield&#8230; So, why the attraction to Treasuries? 1.92% for a 5-year Treasury? That&#8217;s pitiful! And if the continued buying at that level doesn&#8217;t represent an &#8220;overbought&#8221; situation than I&#8217;m not bald, overweight and short!</p>
<p>The Canadian dollar / loonie had a rough go of it on Friday after their Current Account printed as a deficit for the first time since 1999! So&#8230; After 9 years of surpluses, Canada is dealing with a deficit&#8230; The Current Account deficit totaled a seasonally adjusted C$ 7.486 Billion in the fourth quarter, bigger than the consensus forecast for a C$ 5.1 Billion shortfall. A slump in the goods trade account combined with a widening investment income deficit resulted in the largest Current Account deficit since 1993.</p>
<p>Japanese yen continues to weaken from it&#8217;s lofty levels of just a couple of weeks ago&#8230; I tried to point this out to everyone when I said that the Unwinding of the Carry Trade looked as though it had come to an end&#8230; If the unwinding involved buying yen, then the end of the unwinding would involve not buying yen&#8230; Then when it stops getting stronger, profit taking begins, and&#8230; Well, that&#8217;s where we are today with yen&#8230;</p>
<p>Remember last week when I mentioned that AIG could post the largest loss in U.S. Corporate history at $60 Billion? Well, they bettered that number posting a loss of $61.66 Billion! So&#8230; Guess who stepped in again to make sure they didn&#8217;t fail? That&#8217;s right! The U.S. Gov&#8217;t&#8230; Here&#8217;s the skinny as reported by the Wall Street Journal&#8230; &#8220;The federal government has revamped its rescue package to American International Group and will provide the troubled company another $30 billion, with the Treasury saying AIG continues &#8220;to face significant challenges.&#8221; The announcement comes as the insurance giant posted a $61.66 billion net loss for the fourth quarter.</p>
<p>The new package comes as the company has burned through cash and has been unable to find buyers for pieces of its company that it hoped to sells to repay the government on its existing loan package, which totals some $150 billion.</p>
<p>&gt;&gt;&gt;&gt; back to me&#8230; I tell you this folks&#8230; I truly believe that the Gov&#8217;t might as well find a big black hole and throw the $30 Billion into it, because now AIG is at $150 Billion in total loans, and still burning through cash&#8230; I hope I&#8217;m wrong, because as a taxpayer, I would hate to see this, but&#8230; I think we&#8217;ll hear about more Tens of Billions being put into this company in the future&#8230;</p>
<p>Speaking of taxes&#8230; I met my guy on Friday to begin the tax accounting process&#8230; The time is slipping by pretty quickly folks, and April 15th will be here before we know it!</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve talked about how much I enjoy reading Caroline Baum&#8217;s articles on Bloomberg before&#8230; And she has one now that really strikes a nerve with me, in that for once I have someone agreeing with me that the latest stimulus isn&#8217;t addressing the problem with the banks&#8230; Here&#8217;s a snippet&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said in congressional testimony last week that key to stabilizing the economy is stabilizing the financial system.</p>
<p>If that’s the case &#8212; and policy makers of all stripes seem to agree that it is &#8212; why a $787 billion fiscal stimulus bill filled with political priorities and a budget that increases domestic spending by 8 percent?</p>
<p>As an economist friend of mine says, you can’t force-feed someone who’s in the middle of coronary thrombosis.</p>
<p>Better to make the treatment fit the disease. Revamping the health-care system won’t fix the banks. Raising the price of carbon-based fuels and force feeding the nation alternative sources of energy won’t loosen up lending. And higher taxes on the wealthy, and inevitably the not-so-wealthy, won’t enhance bank solvency.</p>
<p>Doing so many things at once means a reduced focus on the root of the problem. There’s a reason the tortoise beats the hare in Aesop’s fable.&#8221;</p>
<p>The entire story can be read here, and I highly recommend that you do&#8230; http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid 601039&amp;sid aoKaIpGop7No&amp;refer columnist_baum</p>
<p>Currencies today 3/2/09: A$ .6325, kiwi .4935, C$ .7785, euro 1.2580, sterling 1.4150, Swiss .85, rand 10.3685, krone 7.20, SEK 9.22, forint 243.50, zloty 3.78, koruna 22.62, yen 97.10, sing 1.5540, HKD 7.7565, INR 51.94, China 6.8450, pesos 15.40, BRL 2.4120, Dollar index 88.72, Oil $42.38, Silver $13.10, and Gold&#8230; $946.55</p>
<p><a href="http://dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx?date=3/2/2009">Source: </a><a href="http://dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx?date=3/2/2009">Saying &#8220;NO&#8221; To Eastern Europe</a><br />
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		<title>How To Profit From Political Games In Eastern Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/how-to-profit-from-political-games-in-eastern-europe/7966</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:22:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Snyder</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Snyder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Crisis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[investing in Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia energy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Andrew Snyder</strong> says Democrat-fearing investors are now looking overseas for profits. Andrew says Eastern Europe is a hotbed of political conflict. But that could end up creating great money-making opportunities in the energy sector.</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>What impact will rising taxes, stronger labor unions and increased regulations have on the country’s publicly traded corporations? Well, if today’s trading activity is any indication of what the future holds, we are in for a long road to recovery.</p>
<p>Some investors are taking this as an opportunity to look overseas.</p>
<p>India and the fairly limited impact the global economic crisis has played on the country has been a safe haven for some savvy investors. Even Australia is getting plenty of American investment dollars now that&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Andrew Snyder</strong> says Democrat-fearing investors are now looking overseas for profits. Andrew says Eastern Europe is a hotbed of political conflict. But that could end up creating great money-making opportunities in the energy sector.</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>What impact will rising taxes, stronger labor unions and increased regulations have on the country’s publicly traded corporations? Well, if today’s trading activity is any indication of what the future holds, we are in for a long road to recovery.</p>
<p>Some investors are taking this as an opportunity to look overseas.</p>
<p>India and the fairly limited impact the global economic crisis has played on the country has been a safe haven for some savvy investors. Even Australia is getting plenty of American investment dollars now that many of its mining stocks are dirt cheap.</p>
<p>While all of these investing notions are solid, international investors can do better. One region you should keep your eye on is Eastern Europe. There is a lot of political activity heating up in the area and smart investors will be able to take advantage of the action.</p>
<p><strong>The fighting never stops</strong></p>
<p>We all know Russia and Georgia are far from good friends right now. They are battling over many issues, but one undeniable fighting point is energy. Russia’s financial stability depends on selling oil and natural gas to its western neighbors at a premium.</p>
<p>But just like you and I do not like paying absurd amounts for our fuel, neither do countries like Georgia. That is why they are hurriedly trying to build out their own supplies. Countries like Turkey, Hungary, Georgia, and Kazakhstan are quickly realizing they are sitting on some very valuable energy reserves.</p>
<p>This does not make Russia happy.</p>
<p>But as investors, we need to look at this situation, not as a political mess, but as a great investing opportunity. Tiny, government-backed companies are about to be sitting on huge windfalls. The kind our new administration would love to tax… but can’t.</p>
<p>America may be getting a new administration that is not too happy with Wall Street, but that does not mean our days of successful investing our over. In fact, I believe there are more profit opportunities today than there were yesterday. You just have to know where to look.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I are currently researching and examining the situation in Eastern Europe. Look for our conclusions very soon.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/international-investing/obama-presidency-investors-head-overseas-5270.html">Source: Obama Presidency: Investors flee overseas</a></p>
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		<title>Eastern Europe Attracts Fast Food Giants</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/eastern-europe-attracts-fast-food-giants/7407</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 29 Oct 2008 18:48:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Sara Nunnally</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BKC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[European Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fast food stocks]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>A fun little bit of news out of the beautiful city of Prague today…</p>
<p>The first <strong>Burger King</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bkc" target="_blank">BKC)</a> will open in Prague in the next few months. And it’s not only targeting the Czech Repbulic. It wants to become <a href="http://www.praguemonitor.com/drupal/node/422" target="_blank">number one in European markets</a>. To do that, it’s already got operations in Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary, and it planning joints in Slovakia and Slovenia.</p>
<p>But it’s got tough competition from <strong>McDonald’s</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=MCD" target="_blank">MCD)</a>, who is top dog right now with 70 restaurants serving 53 million customers. It’s spent more than $172.2 million on restaurants in the Czech Republic.</p>
<p>When I was in Budapest, I grabbed a Whopper for a quick lunch before meeting my guide back at the hotel, <a href="http://www.buropanzio.hu/eng/index2.php?page=bemutatkozo" target="_blank">Buro Panzio</a>. It cost me 750 Forint,&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A fun little bit of news out of the beautiful city of Prague today…</p>
<p>The first <strong>Burger King</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bkc" target="_blank">BKC)</a> will open in Prague in the next few months. And it’s not only targeting the Czech Repbulic. It wants to become <a href="http://www.praguemonitor.com/drupal/node/422" target="_blank">number one in European markets</a>. To do that, it’s already got operations in Poland, Bulgaria and Hungary, and it planning joints in Slovakia and Slovenia.</p>
<p>But it’s got tough competition from <strong>McDonald’s</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=MCD" target="_blank">MCD)</a>, who is top dog right now with 70 restaurants serving 53 million customers. It’s spent more than $172.2 million on restaurants in the Czech Republic.</p>
<p>When I was in Budapest, I grabbed a Whopper for a quick lunch before meeting my guide back at the hotel, <a href="http://www.buropanzio.hu/eng/index2.php?page=bemutatkozo" target="_blank">Buro Panzio</a>. It cost me 750 Forint, which is about $3.75 or so, and the place was packed. My last night in Budapest, I hit the town with some new friends, and ended up back at BK for a late-night snack. It was still packed, and one young, drunk, teenager was thrown out for misbehaving and bothering the customers.</p>
<p>It’s not your traditional Hungarian restaurant, of course. BK doesn’t have goulash on the menu… But I’d had goulash in nearly every country I’d been to on that trip, including the absolutely stunning Hungarian goulash at a nice little pub on the pedestrian Vaci utca.</p>
<p>Simply, the best.</p>
<p>So what’s my opinion of international fast-food joints in gorgeous old towns?</p>
<p>I don’t have a problem with it, so long as it blends… I mean, seriously, you don’t really want to go to the Astronomical Clock in Prague and see those nuclear-yellow glowing golden arches in the background, do you? It would spoil the picture.</p>
<p><strong>Starbucks</strong> (NYSE:<a title="Open a new browser window to find out more" href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=sbux" target="_blank">SBUX</a>) has a place right off the Old Town Square. You wouldn’t know it but for the sign in the window. Blends right in. (By the way, I slipped in to use their bathroom, and it was really dirty. But it was free…)</p>
<p>So with demand on the rise &#8211; the Czech Republic is estimated to have about 13,000 food stalls and restaurants in the country &#8211; people will have to make room at the table for fast-food companies.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://blog.taipanpublishinggroup.com/2008/10/29/foreign-direct-investment-prague-has-it-her-own-way/#more-169">Foreign Direct Investment: Prague Has It Her Own Way</a></p>
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