In a report to be released this week, the Obama administration will boost its 10-year projection for the federal budget deficit to about $9 trillion – an increase of roughly $2 trillion, or 29%, from its prior projection, Fox News reported over the weekend, citing a source from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

The new cumulative deficit projection – for 2010-2019 – replaces the administration’s previous estimate of $7.108 trillion. Changes in budget projections – whether they result in a surplus or a deficit – are often refined as economic conditions change. This new projection was necessary because the recession has gone on for so long, causing federal tax receipts to plunge – and because the economic rebound will be prolonged and weak, resulting in lower forecasts for future federal revenue.

Although most of the news media focuses on the Obama administration’s $787 stimulus measure, the fact is that the federal government was pushing forward with nearly $12 trillion in rebound-related financing commitments, Money Morning reported this spring.

The administration earlier this year predicted that unemployment would peak at about 9% without the financial-jump-starting initiatives and 8% with them. But U.S. joblessness zoomed skyward anyway, and stood at 9.4% last month, although many economists now say that a double-digit unemployment rate – one of 10% or more – is easily possible.

The nation’s debt now stands at $11.7 trillion. In the scheme of things, that’s more important than talking about the deficit, which only looks at a one-year slice of bookkeeping and ignores previous debt that is still outstanding.

Back in June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the federal deficit would reach $1.825 trillion this year. The CBO and the Obama administration will tomorrow (Tuesday) separately release new budget-deficit predictions. Last Wednesday, a senior White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that the administration estimate would reach $1.58 trillion – or triple last year’s deficit.

The report for the budget year that ends Sept. 30 also will predict Washington to spend $3.653 trillion this year, although revenue will reach only $2.074 trillion, the unnamed senior official told The AP.

“Whether it’s $1.6 trillion or $1.8 trillion, it’s pretty bad,” said Robert Bixby, executive director of the bipartisan fiscal watchdog The Concord Coalition, told Fox News. “I hope no one tries to spin that as good news.”

Total U.S. debt has soared to $11.7 trillion (the budget deficit is the “shortfall” in the annual deficit, while the debt is cumulative), having balloned to that level as a result of the multiple annual deficits that have become the norm, it seems.

Market Matters

Just who is the world’s great economic superpower these days?  At times, it seems, “as China goes, so go the world equity markets.”  Early in the week, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) suffered its largest percentage decline since late 2008, with the index plunging more than 20% for the month on concerns about the sustainability of China’s recovery.

The global markets watched as the Japan, Europe, and the U.S. indexes followed the SSE downward.  By mid-week, however, all eyes were back on the domestic market as another sell-off in China was overshadowed by signs of growing U.S. economic strength and reports of enhanced energy demand.

The global bailout plans moved into a new stage as the Swiss government relinquished its control over banking giant UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) by selling off its investment for a $1.13 billion profit, or a 30% annualized return.  While the U.S. government has yet to reap similar benefits, several major banks have paid off their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans and the CEO for one of the poster children for financial distress, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), announced that his firm should be able to pay back the government and may even be able to “do something for shareholders as well.”

While many auto dealers complained about the rebate process on the “Cash for Clunkers” program, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GRM) stepped forward and will begin providing advances to participants who continue to wait for the government to move through its traditional red-tape.

The healthcare debate (and political infighting) raged on (complete with widespread town hall civil disobedience).  Rumors that the government would remove its public-health-plan option sent related health-care stocks soaring early in the week, though the jury remains out as to how this will really play after U.S. President Barack Obama guaranteed approval of an overhaul and then bashed congressional Republicans for their efforts in blocking any plan whatsoever.

On the earnings front, the housing sector received mixed signals as Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) bested expectations, while rival Lowe Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) fell short and reduced its outlook. Cost-cutting was widespread among retailers as The TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TJX), The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), and even Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) benefited from increased margins, though sales remained lackluster at best.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) struggled in its PC and printer-business segments, though management expects a healthy rebound in its fiscal fourth quarter.

Fixed income benefited from some early “flight-to-quality” trades and a report that showed strong foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries in June (despite ongoing rumors to the contrary).  Stocks fell sharply in sympathy with the China sell-off, though buyers reemerged in a big way on positive signs from the earnings and economic reports.

Likewise, oil prices shook off some early week negativity and surged to 2009 highs, as a surprising plunge in inventory levels revealed growing demand – perhaps to coincide with the beginning of a global economic rebound?  On that note, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments about the prospects for recovery (though slow at first) were extremely well-received as investors seemed to all but forget about following Shanghai and the U.S. markets assumed the leadership role once again.  The major domestic indexes shrugged off the weak start and pushed to new highs for the year.

Market/ Index	Year Close (2008)	Qtr Close (06/30/09)	Previous Week (08/14/09)	Current Week (08/21/09)	YTD Change
Dow Jones Industrial	8,776.39	8,447.00	9,321.40	9,505.96	+8.31%
NASDAQ	1,577.03	1,835.04	1,985.52	2,020.90	+28.15%
S&P 500	903.25	919.32	1,004.09	1,026.13	+13.60%
Russell 2000	499.45	508.28	563.90	581.51	+16.43%
Global Dow	1526.21	1,629.31	1,803.83	1,819.50	+19.22%
Fed Funds	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0 bps
10 yr Treasury (Yield)	2.24%	3.52%	3.56%	3.56%	+132 bps

Economically Speaking

In addition to the Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings reports, housing news was prevalent during the week and the results were somewhat confusing.  The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index climbed for the second month in a row and reached its highest level in over a year.  Likewise, applications for mortgages increased for the third straight month on declining interest rates.

However, foreclosure rates remain on the rise and, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 13.2% of mortgages are delinquent or worse (in foreclosure); in fact, subprime mortgages are no longer the only area of concern as the unsettled labor picture has prompted homeowners with strong credit to fall behind on their prime mortgages as well.

Though housing starts fell in July, the decline was entirely attributable to apartment activity and construction of single-family homes actually rose for the fifth straight month.  Additionally, existing home sales in July surged by more than 7% as buyers took advantage of the misfortunes of others (in foreclosure), though prices continue to fall because of transactions related to these distressed properties.

In non-housing news, separate regional reports from the New York and Philadelphia Feds boosted the outlook for the domestic manufacturing sector and the overall economy.  Wholesale inflation remained benign as the producer price index (PPI) fell by a wider-than-expected 0.9% in July and prices have plummeted over the past 12 months by the largest percentage (6.8%) since records have been kept, dating back to 1947.

Be forewarned: Oil just hit a 2009-high.

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers met for their annual conference and Fed Chair Bernanke shared a favorable assessment about the recovery process from “the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression.”  Of course, Bernanke tempered some of his remarks and reiterated that, while the recession seems to be coming to an end, the rebound would likely be slow, with unemployment remaining a concern.

Bernanke also spoke of the need for financial regulatory reform in order to ensure the current financial debacle isn’t repeated.  The Fed also extended its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) lending program in order to help stem the potential “challenges” that remain among commercial mortgage-backed securities.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: In the Race for a U.S. Economic Rebound, Growing Debt and Budget Deficits Remain the Biggest Possible Roadblock

In February 1995, the U.S. economy was in great shape. The 1990-92 recession had been over for a couple of years, the Federal Reserve was beginning to ease interest rates, the Clinton administration was beginning to make progress on sorting out the United States’ modest long-term budget problem and there was this new thing called the Internet that looked as though it might bring some exciting new possibilities.

The stock market, too, was strong, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average broke through the 4,000-point level on Feb. 23, 1995, putting it almost 50% above the bull-market high of September 1987.

That level of 4,000 is equivalent to about 7,800 today, when you inflate it by the growth in nominal gross domestic product (GDP) in the intervening 14 years. In other words, if things were looking as good as they were in February 1995, and the market was moderately bullish as it was then, you’d expect the Dow to be around 7,800.

The Dow surged 2.85% yesterday (Monday), to close at 8,504. But the economic conditions we’re looking at today are nowhere near as strong as they were back in the spring of 1995. And that paints a somewhat bleak picture of where the U.S. stock market may be headed.

To get the ultimate doom-laden view, I talked last week with Robert Prechter, who for 30 years has run an investment company based on the Elliott Wave Theory, propounded in 1948 by Ralph Nelson Elliott. I’d wanted to meet Prechter ever since I had seen ads he ran in Barron’s back in the bear market days of 1981-82. The Dow was around 800 at that time, and he forecasted that the U.S. stock market was about to enter a huge uptrend, which might last as long as 20 years, and for which 3,000 on the Dow was only the first stage.

“Boy, he’s bullish,” I remember thinking – it was considered bold at that stage to forecast a Dow of 1,200, which would have been 15% above the index’s all-time peak set in 1972.

But Prechter was right.

He was also right in 1987, when he predicted the sharp bull market of that year would end, but that the pullback would be only a temporary problem before the market went on to greater things.

In the late 1990s, Prechter turned bearish, explaining that the “fifth wave” of an Elliott Wave cycle – and therefore the bull market – was coming to an end. He was a few years early, but by following his advice after about 1998 you would have avoided a decade in which your money made an all-in return of approximately zero.

He was still bearish in 2003 – as was I. In cash terms, we were both wrong and went on being wrong for the next four years, as the Dow zoomed from 8,000 to around 14,000. Of course, as he pointed out to me last week, if you accounted in gold, stocks had in fact declined somewhat between 2003 and 2007. It’s not the Elliott Wave system’s fault that the denominator in the equation – the U.S. dollar – fell out of bed through excessive money printing.

Prechter even managed to call this year’s March bottom, expecting a substantial bear market rally at around 6,300 on the Dow, close to the bottom. However, he expects the market to resume its downward trend shortly, ending with a decline similar to the 86% in real terms of 1929-32 as we are in a long Elliott Wave downswing. That would take the Dow down to around 2,000.

Personally, I would not go that far. This does not look like a reprise of the Great Depression, although it could still turn into one with enough policy mistakes – another “stimulus plan,” or a big dose of protectionism, for example. However, the downward macroeconomic momentum looks bigger than in either 1974 or 1982, bear markets that both brought real-term drops of slightly more than 50% from previous highs.

The current crisis more closely resembles the British crisis of 1972-75, which caused a drop of 72% from the high, or the Japanese crisis after 1990, which brought a drop of 70% within three years, and led to a long-term bear market that has left that market in its current doldrums, about 80% below its peak. For us to see a similar 70% decline from the Dow high, we’d have to be looking at an index that had fallen all the way down to about 4,400. At that point, it would about as cheap as after the 1987 crash, though still not as cheap as it was in 1982, before the great bull market began.

Bulls will respond that corporate earnings are still above the levels appropriate for a 4,400 Dow, to which I would respond that profits might have further to fall. So far, we have seen only a collapse of financial sector earnings, while non-financial earnings remain close to their 2007 highs, when GDP was also at record highs. A period of higher corporate taxes and slow growth – coupled with consumer spending that’s low because U.S. consumers need to save, rebuild their asset base, and pay down their debts – could well cause a further period of earnings deflation, which would return corporate profits to their historical average percentage of GDP – if not to an even lower point.

Where Prechter and I differ is on inflation. He sees a further collapse of asset prices and debt values, with consumer debt and commercial real estate wreaking more havoc on bank balance sheets. That could cause massive price deflation, and a decline – rather than an increase – in the price of gold.

Personally, I look at the over-expansive monetary policy pursued by the Fed for a decade now, and its continuance, and see inflation ahead. Inflation would also help Uncle Sam finance those deficits, so it seems more likely than not.

That difference in opinion aside, Prechter was both charming and fascinating. Maybe we can combine our views, and agree that the deflation will be of the dollar’s value, so that prices will inflate in dollar terms, but deflate in such other hard currencies as the euro, the renminbi (China’s yuan), or the Brazilian real. We shall see.

The bottom line: While the market could go up a little further in the short term, it’s not the time to get aggressive.

[Editor's Note: When Slate magazine recently set out to identify the stock-market guru who most correctly predicted the stock-market decline that accompanied the current financial crisis, the respected online publication concluded it was Martin Hutchinson, a veteran international investment banker who is one of Money Morning's top forecasters.

It was no surprise to our readers: After all, Hutchinson warned investors about the evils of credit default swaps six months before the complex derivatives did in insurer American International Group Inc. Then, last fall, Hutchinson "called" the market bottom.

Now Hutchinson has developed a strategy for investors to invest their way to "Permanent Wealth" using high-yielding dividend stocks. This strategy is tailor-made for an unpredictable stock market that's backdropped by an uncertain economy. Just click here to find out about this strategy - or Hutchinson's new service, The Permeanent Wealth Invesor.]

Source: Elliott Wave Disciple Robert Prechter Sees a Possible 2,000 Dow