The price of oil is a function of many things, but as with all economic issues its prime mover is demand. Demand for the past 18 months has been dropping due to the economic meltdown worldwide. This has made for great energy prices, but it’s like a warm day in January in Canada.  It’s not real and anyone who has ever lived through a northern winter knows it will not last.

Why?

First, the world is coming out of this recession and oil demand is about to explode and we, the USA, the biggest energy pig in the world, have done nothing to prepare for it. We have less of an ability to provide for our energy needs now than we did 35 years ago.

Second, Asia and the rest of the developing world are coming out of this worldwide slow down, too. Consider how much more oil will be going to Asia and the developing world as they rebound and start to suck up what’s left of the world’s capacity to produce black gold. The demand picture really begins to come into focus.

Third, the current effort of the Obama administration to avoid a depression by pumping trillions into the economy has worked. We are soaring out of the hole faster than anyone could have imagined a year ago. At the same time we are doing so with no way to fuel it, literally fuel it.

We are completely unprotected from the threats to our economy and future well being that comes from importing 75% of our oil.

Fourth, there has been zero new development of oil reserves partly because of a very admirable effort by the Obama administration to shift to clean renewable energy. Clean and renewable is great, but we have about a ten year gap that has to be filled with oil before we can make that a reality.

Fifth, a dysfunctional congress whose priorities are their careers, their party, their district and whatever is left over goes to the well being of this country, in that order. Congress is all but incapable of working toward a long term solution to the problem.

Add them up and we have all of the necessary elements for the biggest rise in oil prices in our history over the next three to five years. Here’s how we can make money on this mess.

DXO, Power Shares Deutsche Bank Crude, or DIG, Ultra Oil and gas Pro Shares, both are designed to give you twice the percentage return of any increase in the price of oil. In the past month or so DXO bottomed at about $1.90 per share and ran to about $3.20 on just a $12 dollar move up in the price of crude. That’s a 68% move. DIG has had a similar neck snapping rebound.

If oil only goes to the $75 range, which is a given at this point, the DXO and DIG stand to move another 130%. The money we can make here is mind boggling.

The best part of this play is that it is inevitable. The chances of oil not moving up in price are almost zero.

You will only get a few opportunities like this in your investing life. Think of all the times you looked back at the market and thought how great it would have been if you had put money in at the bottom. This is the bottom!

As always time is the key to the success of this recommendation. A move to $75 a barrel is very likely by the end of this year, but the big money could be several years out. Give this time to work and you won’t be disappointed.

100% plus this year is just the beginning of this move.

Source: Retire Early Compliments of OPEC

Earlier today I received an email from a concerned member of the Sovereign Society:

“I just read a rumor that a bill is working its way through the U.S. Congress, that if becomes law, would authorize the federal government to seize all 401k’s and IRA assets. These assets would then be placed in a federally administered plan to provide ‘equal and adequate protection’ of assets for all retirees. This sounds like what recently occurred in Argentina. Have you heard anything about this and is such a scenario possible? If so, then would being offshore prevent a potential seizure?”

I certainly am aware of the situation in Argentina where, last October, President Cristina Kirchner confiscated US$29 billion worth in the country’s ten privately managed pension funds. This was presented as an emergency measure to meet her faltering government’s financing costs that had soared as Argentina’s commodity prices on exports had tumbled and thousands of farmers were on strike.

Double Defaults

This grab of private property was nothing new for Peronista Argentina. In 2001, Argentina defaulted on US$95 billion worth of government debt after a three-year economic meltdown that left Buenos Aires in bankruptcy.

At the time, that was the biggest government debt default in world history; but since then that number looks like chicken feed compared with the trillions in government bailouts of banks and private businesses in the U.S., U.K. Germany, France and elsewhere. This radical government expropriation of private funds only worsened Argentina’s situation and they are once again on the verge of national bankruptcy.

In a breathtaking piece of bravado, President Cristina Kirchner brazenly claimed the grab would “protect” retirees from the global financial crisis, while denying she was trying to “grab the cash” to pay off debt or to finance new programs or projects.

Expert Viewpoint

I turned to Larry C. Grossman, CFP, CIMA, Managing Director, Sovereign International Pension Services (no relation) and a member of our Sovereign Society Council of Experts. Larry specializes in converting American pension plans to offshore venues, which current U.S. law allows.

Here’s Larry’s opinion: “There have been several different academic papers published over the last few months, which have given rise to rumors such as these. At this point in time I am unaware of any such pending legislation.

“It is difficult to sort out fact from fiction and to decide what format it would take if something like this occurred in the U.S. Many of us believe if it does happen, your best way to conserve your assets would be to already have them placed offshore. There is an old saying that ‘bank robbers go to banks because that’s where the money is.’

“I have clients who own non-U.S. real estate in their IRAs and have done so for many many years. I think it would be difficult (although not impossible) for the government to force assets such as these to be repatriated to the U.S. Instead they would probably focus their efforts on grabbing ‘the low hanging fruit.’”

And obviously, that could be billions in existing private pension funds located and administered within the U.S.

History Repeats Itself

Beyond belief? Read American history.

* Within days of taking over the presidency in Mach 1933, President-elect Barack Obama’s hero, President Franklin D. Roosevelt, ordered all Americans to surrender to the government all their gold and gold-backed currency, allowing only small amounts for personal jewelry and dental fillings. In return Americans got devalued paper currency.

* In the last 25 years federal and state police and prosecutors, under the guise of the failed “war on drugs,” have seized billions of dollars worth of real and personal property under the civil forfeiture program. Only 20% of the property owners were ever charged with any crimes, but very few got their cash or property returned.

“The G7 states are already acquiring an unhealthy taste for the arbitrary seizure of private property“,says the London Telegraph columnist, Ambrose Evans-Pritchard,

“It’s a foretaste of what may happen across the world”.

World Recession An Excuse

It started with subprime mortgage borrowers, moved on to banks and has now progressed to whole countries. Iceland has already thrown in the towel, and Argentina stole its citizens’ pensions. Socialized bailouts and government controls are now the watchword in Washington as well.

Already governments in the U.S., Britain, and Europe are mightily meddling in the markets under the guise of “saving the system”, by taking ownership stakes in banks that rank above the rights of existing bank owners, then telling these banks how much to lend and what they must do with the cash. Ditto for auto and insurance companies.

Anything Can Happen

In response to that email from our Sovereign Society member, I replied that it is possible that some brainless members of the U.S. Congress may have introduced a bill that seeks to nationalize pensions, but I hope that it will not be given serious consideration, even by the liberal Democrat majority now in control.

For one thing, adopting such a law would be a major psychological blow to Americans’ confidence, possibly to the value of the dollar, and to the worldwide credibility of the new Obama government, at a crucial time when financial confidence is low and going lower.

But I served in the U.S. Congress when Democrats were in control and I’ve seen what happens when the Republicans are in charge. Meaning simply; anything can happen!

Source: Will Obama Nationalize U.S. Private Pensions?