Our memory of the recent rally was on kicked-off by a bogus memo from Citigroup CEO Vikram Pandit about profitability, followed by a load of baloney from stress test regulators about banks’ health.

“People also are beginning to question whether the economic fundamentals are strong enough to justify continued gains,” continues the WSJ. This has got to be one of the most naïve sentences ever written. The 40% rise in stocks since early March never had anything to do with a 40% increase in economic fundamentals. The economy is collapsing (albeit at a slightly slower pace than before).

Stocks rose because the same “irrational exuberance” that got us into trouble in the first place caused investors to ignore economic fundamentals and pile into equities on the basis that the government wouldn’t let any more failed companies go bust. At no point during this rally did economic fundamentals improve. Economic news was simply less bad than before.

The following three indicators should make it patently clear to investors that stocks are in trouble.

1. There has been a consistent drop in trading volume going back to April. Average daily volume for all NYSE stocks hit a record of 7.21 billion shares in March (much of which was thanks to program trading by Goldman Sachs on the bank’s principle account). That fell to 6.42 billion in April… and 5.14 billion in May. This is below the average of 6.15 billion shares traded a day in 2009. In a true bull market, trading volumes tend to rise as more and more investors pour into stocks.

2. New stock issuance hit a record in May. This has dramatically increased supply at the same time that demand (as measured by trading volume) is falling off.

3. Senior corporate officers are net sellers, not buyers. This inside selling is inconsistent with a real bull run.

Here at Notes we have repeatedly stated that there has been money to be made in the recent upswing but that investors better be nimble to avoid the inevitable bull trap. We repeat this warning again today. If you are investing in equities, keep a close eye on events. Right now, you’re money is sitting in dangerous quicksand.

The beginning of the end for the stock market rally is finally here, says Payout Trader editor and technical analyst Charles Delvalle. Charles has been predicting a sell-off for quite some time. Here’s what he has to say on the subject:

After staying above the 20-day moving average since March 12, the Dow finally broke under it on June 16. Four days later, the Dow is trying desperately to stay above its 50-day moving average.

This signals an end to the shocking display of strength the market has shown in recent months.

Typically market bottoms are not V-shaped. They are usually W-shaped or form a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern. For example, after the last bear market the Dow formed a reverse head-and-shoulders pattern before signaling the start of the following multi-year bull run.

Let’s be clear. The “green shoots” hysteria in the mainstream media was designed to boost consumer and investor optimism and to send stocks higher. (Remember, the mainstream media needs large corporations – their advertisers – to succeed as much as Washington does.) The “green shoots” rarely indicated that the economy was improving. More often than not, they simply signaled that things were getting worse more slowly.

For readers taken in by the “green shoots” meme, it may surprise you that the Fed’s recent Flow of Funds report – which tracks the country’s financial flows – shows that credit conditions actually got worse in the first quarter of 2009.

As underground investor Dr Martin Weiss points out, “This directly contradicts Washington’s thesis that the government’s TARP program and the Fed’s massive rescue efforts began to have an impact early in the year.”

Weiss, of MoneyAndMarkets.com, says, “ The credit market shutdown actually gained tremendous momentum in the first quarter. And although it’s natural to expect some temporary stabilization from the government’s massive interventions, the first quarter was SO bad, it’s impossible for me to imagine any scenario in which the crisis could be declared ‘over.’”

Here are the facts Weiss has compiled about credit conditions in Q1 2009:

1. We witnessed one of the biggest collapses of all time in “open market paper” – mostly short-term credit provided to finance mortgages, auto loans, and other businesses. Instead of growing as it had in almost every prior quarter in history, it collapsed at the annual rate of $662.5 billion.

2. Bank lending went into the toilet. Even in the fourth quarter, when the meltdown struck, banks were still growing their loan portfolios at an annual pace of $839.7 billion. But in the first quarter, they did far more than just cut back on new lending. They actually took in loan repayments (or called in existing loans at a much faster pace than they extended new ones! They literally pulled out of the credit markets at the astonishing pace of $856.4 billion per year, their biggest cutback of all time.

3. Meanwhile, nonbank lenders pulled out at the annual rate of $468 billion, also the worst on record.

4. Mortgage lenders  pulled out for a third straight month. (Their worst on record was in the prior quarter.)

5. And consumers  were shoved out of the market for credit at the annual pace of $90.7 billion, the worst on record.

6. The ONLY major player still borrowing money in big amounts was the United States Treasury Department , sopping up $1,442.8 billion of the credit available – and leaving LESS than nothing for the private sector as a whole.

This is all very bad news indeed for the economy. And if it’s been reported in the mainstream media, we have yet to see it.

Here she recommends to buy gold, invest in stocks with discrimination and keep your money liquid in treasuries.

This from Sandy:

The stock market did not react well to the government’s $787 billion economic stimulus plan.

On Feb. 23, 2009, the Dow tumbled to 7,114 – hitting an eleven-year low. The other major indices, including the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq, fell as well.

The latest economic numbers aren’t any better. The price of single-family homes plunged 18% and the Consumer Confidence Index, which was down slightly in January, plummeted more than 12 points in February to 25.

The combination of bad economic news and a tanking market means this recession will take longer to recover than most analysts expect.

Bombarded by bad news, average investors are on the verge of dumping all their shares entirely. But is that best thing to do with your money now?

The answer is no. Here are a few investing strategies that make sense given the current market conditions…

(1) Buy gold. The surge in gold prices means investors are anxious to protect their capital against inflation, currency depreciation and bank failures. The rise in gold (which is sitting near $1,000 an ounce) is consistent with other indications that the market is bracing for a delayed upturn in inflation between 2010 and 2012.

There would have to be “growing positive sentiment” towards the banking sector before gold prices fell. But that isn’t likely to happen anytime soon. Morgan Stanley came out with a report saying that gold would go up over the next three years. The reasons: a falling dollar, higher inflation and a flight to safety.

Morgan Stanley predicts gold will average $1,000 in 2010 … $1,050 in 2011 … and $1,075 in 2012, up as much as 34% from previous estimates.

Adam Lass, senior editor of WaveStrength Options Weekly, suggests buying shares of the SPDR Gold Trust. Adam writes, “I expect the dollar to resume its habitual relationship to the euro, yen and gold shortly, and recommend that investors continue to buy shares of the SPDR Gold Shares Trust (GLD:NYSE), which has gained some 25% over the past four months.”

(2) Buy stocks, but do so discriminately. This week the Dow fell to levels not seen since 1998. One year ago, the Dow was sitting at 12,694. As I write, it’s at 7,365. But you don’t need me to tell you this. You see the damage to your portfolio every time you look at your 401(k) statements.

As prices decline, this also means there are companies you can buy for less than the cash they have on hand. In fact, in an academic study done by Berardino Palazzo of New York University’s economic department, he found that companies with highcash-to-assets carry a positive premium for investors. Palazzo explains, “Firms that are sensitive to economic shocks tend to use cash holdings as a hedge against future cash flow shortfall, and this conservative management approach pays off.”

There are certainly plenty of companies with cash on hand to choose from. In a study done by Jason DeSena Trennert, managing partner and chief investment strategist at Strategas Research Partners in New York, he found corporate balance sheets showed that cash as a percentage of total assets is as high as it’s been since the 1960s.

Chris DeHaemer of BreakAway Investor offers these companies for consideration:

**AuthenTech (AUTH:NASDAQ) is a technology company that provides fingerprint authentication sensors. Its fingerprint sensors allow users to access and control multiple functions on an electronic device by touching or sliding their finger across the sensor. The sensors are used in various applications related to security, password replacement, financial transaction authentication and personalization applications.

Its sensor-related products are used in GPS navigation systems, cell phones, memory keys, laptops… even desktops.

The company has zero debt and roughly a cash equivalent of $2.21 per share. It currently trades around $1.37 per share.

**Exxon Mobil (XOM:NYSE). If you prefer a non-technology-related company, there’s always Exxon Mobil with $39 billion in cash, which is equal to $7.72 total cash per share. Exxon reported a profit of $45.2 billion for 2008. This amount breaks the record for an American company.

Zachary Scheidt of Taipan’s New Growth Investor suggest buying companies in sectors that will continue to thrive during this economic crisis.

One such sector is healthcare. There are basically four individual factors that combine to make this quite an exciting opportunity:

• Stability and growth: Healthcare stocks offer plenty of stability, but the growth is potentially astronomical;
• Demand has little do with economics: A person’s health sits right at the top of just about everyone’s priority list;
• Demographic trends point to more demand: The current population (domestically and internationally) is aging and in need of more care than ever seen in the past;
• Political agenda favors healthcare: One of Obama’s campaign promises was to re-work the healthcare system and to make sure affordable care was available to all.

(3) Another way to protect your money is to keep it liquid in treasuries or certificates of deposit.

Because of the scandal that broke loose with the SEC charging Allen Stanford in an $8 billion fraud case (using certificates of deposit), you’d think that all CDs are time bombs.

But that’s not the case. The dead give-away in the Stanford case is that his “certificate of deposit” promised double-digit returns. Stop right there. Certificates of deposit don’t yield high returns. They’re low risk, which means low yield.

A CD has a specific, fixed term – often three months, six months, or one to five years – and carries a fixed interest rate. They are also insured by the FDIC (up to $250,000). The longer you are willing to have your CD investment locked up, the higher the CD interest rate your bank will offer you.

CDs are best used for cash that you want to stay liquid. As the market continues to implode, you might want to consider putting a portion of your money into a CD. As the market begins to bottom out, you’ll have access to that cash to buy stocks at reduced prices.

While most major banks offer CDs, we recommend the Ultra Resource Index CD offered through EverBank. EverBank asked our group’s opinion on creating a CD that would allow investors to take advantage of global markets.

We suggested a CD made up of six countries with strong resources and strong cash reserves, including Australia, New Zealand, Singapore, Hong Kong, Canada and Norway. You can lock in terms for three to six months with no account fees.

EverBank is a healthy and stable company. It enjoyed strong growth during the first three quarters of 2008, posting a 129% increase in earnings compared to the first three quarters of 2007, or $50.1 million. The company also has assets worth $6.5 billion and serves 440,000 customers worldwide.

I do have to tell you that we have a business relationship with EverBank, and we receive a financial benefit from the sales of this product. But we firmly stand behind EverBank and their products and think they are a solid way to grow your wealth.

If you’d like to learn more about the Ultra Resource Index CD – to get in on an once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to profit from today’s currency boom before the masses – you should check out this Special Report we’ve put together for you. Download this FREE Report now.
Source: What to Do With Your Money Now

“Psst…we’re breaking out of this joint…Saturday night…pass it on….”

Yes, dear reader…we’re breaking out… We’re not going to let these prison bars stop us. A whole generation of American investors is being fattened for slaughter…we’re not going to be among them.

Let’s look at yesterday’s headlines just to see what is going on.

The Dow rose 62 points yesterday. Oil held steady at $48. Gold went up $8. Yields are rising…but you still get paid nothing when you lend money to the U.S. government.

The economic news tells us that things are getting worse. Alcoa said it will lay off 13,500 workers. But all across the country, businesses are either laying off old workers or not hiring new ones. Most of the joblessness never makes the news – until it is already painful to the fellows without jobs. Small businesses don’t announce layoffs. Nor do they send out a press release when they decide not to hire a new kid at the carwash.

After the worst car sales in half a century, Toyota says it is shutting down its plant for 11 days.

And a figure out yesterday tells us that consumer bankruptcies rose 33% last year. But the crash came late in 2008; job cuts didn’t really begin until the last quarter. People didn’t have a chance to get their paperwork together. This year, the bankruptcy numbers should really soar.

Most likely, Americans are still in the dark about what is going on. Heck…their leaders are driving without headlights…why shouldn’t the lumpen too? People don’t seem too sore about what happened to them in ‘08. They’re still hopeful that a new administration will find a way to fix things. Yes, they’re planning on cutting back spending and saving money…but they have no idea how their attempts at thrift – magnified by millions of other citizens – will affect the economy.

Levy Forecasts, which was generally right about the financial crash, now says the “damage to the economy will rapidly accelerate the financial crisis.” In other words, the financial crash is causing an economic crash…which will cause a worse financial crash.

Profits are made at the margin. Most sales merely cover costs. It’s the marginal extra buyer – preferably the one who spends his savings, rather his salary – that provides business with profits. On a macro level, salaries are a cost to business. When a man spends his salary, business is merely getting back the money it paid out in labor costs. But when a man spends savings, the money falls to the bottom line as profit.

Who is going to spend savings in ‘09? Who is going to spend at all? That’s why business profits are going to fall harder than most people suspect. Unemployment is going up more than most people expect. And stocks are going down more than most people expect.

Barron’s survey of Wall Street’s “top strategists” tells us that the consensus among these fellows is that stock prices will go up 18% in 2009. But these are the same strategists who thought stock prices were going up in 2008 too – instead of crashing 35% – 40%.

Here at The Daily Reckoning, we’re with the Levy bros. Our guess is that stocks will rally…and then crash again, ending the year below where they began it.

There is no doubt that the U.S. economy has entered a major downturn…probably a generational slump, in which the errors of an entire generation will be corrected.

What do we mean by that? Well, since the early days of the first Reagan Administration Americans have been building fences, to keep themselves confined, and forging chains, to wrap around their own ankles. They built cars and houses that demanded more energy – when energy was becoming more expensive. They became accustomed to lifestyles that cost about 10% more than they earned. They began to think that houses and stocks would go up every year…and that foreigners would lend them money forever. Well…you know what happened. Every link was heated white hot in the furnace of mass delusion and hammered on the anvil of wishful thinking – while public officials urged them on!

Now, the whole country drags around these heavy chains of debt…private debt in all its forms – mortgages, student loans, credit cards, home equity lines, commercial loans, private equity finance, bridge loans, road loans, ditch loans. Last year, all of a sudden, this debt got so heavy, the poor debtors started to pitch over. Lenders looked around and worried, not about the return on their money, but the return OF their money. In many cases, it didn’t look like they’d get it back. That is what caused the ‘credit crisis’ – lenders closed their wallets to all borrowers – save one, the only borrower who was 100% sure to pay you back the money when you needed it, the U.S. government. As a result, bonds and gold were the only two major asset classes to go up last year. People bought government bonds to protect against the implosion of private debt. And they bought gold to protect against government bonds.

We recall Nassim Taleb’s turkeys. Until Thanksgiving, he says, the turkey lives well. Everyday, the food arrives. Everyday, he gets bigger and fatter. Then, one day, just before the third Thursday in November, when Americans celebrate their traditional Thanksgiving dinner…with no warning, comes the knife…the crash…the collapse…the discontinuity…the 7 sigma event in the turkey’s life that changes everything.

“That’s why we need to study history,” says Elizabeth, who is working on a master’s degree in 18th century French history at the Sorbonne. “If the turkeys had studied history, they might been warned. In early November, they might have started whispering to each other in the yard: ‘it’s a set-up…we’re all going to be sent to the ovens…break-out planned for tomorrow at dinner…pass it on.’ Then, while a few birds got into a squawk to provide a diversion, the others might have rushed the gate. Instead, they didn’t know what was coming and took it in the neck.”

There are plenty of histories of finance – oral and written. But investors pay no attention. One generation of turkeys learns. The next forgets. One makes money; the next loses it. Every generation has to get its own neck chopped in its own way.

*** With so many citizens groaning and collapsing under the weight of so much debt, it is entirely foreseeable that the feds should pretend to come to their aid. Today’s news tells us that Barack Obama’s rescue mission will bring about $770 billion of cash with it. This comes on top of other rescue missions mounted by the Bush Administration and the Federal Reserve. Altogether, the total cost of these mercy efforts is into the trillions.

In fact, this morning, the Congressional Budget Office has reported that the U.S. government will run a budget deficit of $1.2 trillion in 2009…and that’s not taking into account the stimulus programs.

We have explained why bailouts don’t work. You can’t solve a problem caused by too much debt by adding more debt. The ‘hair of the dog’ technique won’t work – not even if you throw in the whole pooch. But it will have an effect – it will increase the weight of debt to the whole society. The forges are hot again…the hammers are clanging…the smithies are sweaty; now they’re building new chains of debt – public debt. They’re putting up a chain-link fence around the entire United States…and shackling every citizen to a monumental ball. Next year alone, the U.S. federal deficit will go to $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion – or about $20,000 for every family in the country. Over the course of the slump, the total could run to $100,000 per family. This extra public debt is the only sure outcome of the bailout projects.

How will Americans possibly carry so much public debt – along with their already bone-crushing private debt – without collapsing? Who would lend these sub-prime borrowers so much money in the first place?

Give us 24 hours and we’ll have answers to those questions…and give you our break-out plan too. The rest of the turkeys may get the axe…but we’re headed over the fence. We’ve got wings, remember….

*** A dear reader writes: “I respectfully disagree with your assumption regarding the ‘bounce.’ One of the goals of the Bush Administration is to have significant government ‘equity’ presence in Wall Street. This is called ‘Privatization’ when it applies to Social Security – but whatever the Government ‘privatizes’ but retains a hand in, it really ’socializes.’

“Sufficient ‘equity’ has been poured into NYSE stocks, that the Government can manipulate the Dow (DJIA) much more than it could five years ago.

“As most people find the DJIA and the American economy synonymous, a slow and gentle rise in the Dow is cheering to many. So it is done.

“The Hunts attempted the same thing, with vastly different purpose, with the silver market some 30 years ago. They tried to corner it – and lost. The price went up – but they couldn’t get enough of a controlling share to ‘own’ the market, so they were left with vast holdings of massively overpriced silver.

“(I suspect that the fluctuations in oil prices may have been something similar, just from the pattern – but that’s sheer speculation.)

“We (the taxpayer) are gathering a massive market portfolio of overpriced equities. Like dime stocks, we can drive the price up; but it is so volatile, we cannot sell it all at the higher price – and that would crash the market soundly.

“Our acceleration into Market Socialism is another version of what Governments habitually do – play shell games with values, in order to reap profits. I’m sure that the Soviet Union allowed a little stock market to run here or there, eh? The NYSE is Uncle’s pet now, and it is on strings. Never mind that it is dead. It can still dance.”

*** England isn’t so merry these days. First, it is cold – temperatures fell to minus 10 centigrade, according to that reliable source of meteorological intelligence – the Sun. We knew it was cold because the Sun girl on page 3 had goose bumps all over her naked body. But at least she wasn’t sick with the flu. A record 2.4 million workers called in sick yesterday in England – one out of 12 staff was out. Another two million stayed at home because they don’t have jobs to go to. The financial storm that hit Britain last year continues to send waves over the island’s gunwhales. Big retailer Marks & Spencer said it is cutting 1,700 jobs today. And the firm founded by Josiah Wedgewood 250 years ago went bust. UK stocks are down about 40%. Houses are going down fast too. Unemployment is going up. And Britain’s most profitable industry – finance has gone into a slump. Apparently, half the country is either out of work, down with the flu, recovering from the flu, or pretending to have it so they don’t have to go to work.

Source: It’s the Economy, Stupid

This from Marketwatch:

Sales were quite weak across a broad swath of the retail sector in October, an indication that the fourth quarter could be worse than the just completed third quarter, when inflation-adjusted consumer spending fell at the fastest pace in 28 years. Retail sales account for about half of consumer spending and about one-third of domestic demand. Retail sales are down 4.1% in the past year. Sales fell a downwardly revised 1.3% in September. Sales in August were also revised lower to a 0.7% decline. The dismal report confirms what the business sector has been saying: Consumer spending is falling rapidly.