Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks » Economic Reports

Inflation May Show It’s Ugly Head, Big Week for Bank Earnings

Christian Hill — Mon, 13 Jul 2009 15:00:33 +0000

Monday

Earnings Announcements: Novellus (NVLS)

Tuesday
Economic Reports: Core PPI, PPI, Retail Sales

Will this be the month that we finally see inflation take hold? If expectations come true, it very well could be. PPI is anticipated to show an increase of nearly 1%. Core PPI (which excludes food and energy costs) is expected to show an increase of 0.10%. Retail Sales are expected to post a surprising increase. Most reports I have seen show that retailers are still struggling. I don’t expect this report to beat expectations.

Earnings Announcements: Goldman Sachs (GS), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), Yum Brands (YUM)

Wednesday
Economic Reports: Core CPI, CPI

The CPI is expected to show an increase of 0.60%, and Core CPI an increase of 0.10%. If both CPI and PPI meet expectations, we could be in for the start of a long bout of inflation.

Earnings Announcement: Abbott Labs (ABT)

Thursday
Economic Report: Philadelphia Fed

If we meet expectations this month with the Philadelphia Fed report, it will mark 19 out of the last 20 months showing a negative reading. Last month we almost saw a positive reading, but this month we slipped back a little bit. The good news is the decline is slowing and has bounced back considerably in the past few months.

Earnings Announcement: Baxter Int’l (BAX), Harley-Davidson (HOG), JPMorgan Chase (JPM), Google (GOOG), IBM (IBM)

Friday
Economic Calendar: Building Permits, Housing Starts

Housing this week is a mixed bag. Permits are expected to increase and starts are expected to decrease. I would expect both reports to miss estimates. While we are in the midst of the traditional building season in the northern states, I just can’t see the housing industry adding more inventory.

Earnings Announcements: Bank of America (BAC), Citigroup (C), General Electric (GE)

Source: Inflation May Show It’s Ugly Head, Big Week for Bank Earnings

A Big Week for Retailers, Will Inflation Be Held In Check?

Christian Hill — Mon, 11 May 2009 14:15:41 +0000

This is the first major report coming out this week, and could have a real impact on the markets. Expectations are for a decline in sales since last month, albeit at a slower rate than previous months.

Tuesday

Earnings Announcements: AMAT

Wednesday

Economic Reports: Retail Sales

I’ve mentioned it before, but until Americans feel confident about the future of the economy, they won’t spend money. A slowing decline could show some hope that things are bottoming out. Tied into this report, and worth noting, is the large number of clothing retailers that are reporting this week (Macy’s, Nordstrom’s, JC Penney, Abercrombie and Fitch, Kohl’s, and American Apparel), and Wal-Mart’s earnings are announced on Thursday.

Earnings Announcements: FRE

Thursday

Economic Calendar: PPI, Core PPI

It looks as if inflation has been kept under control for at least another month. Both the PPI and Core PPI readings that are announced on Thursday are expected to show only the slightest increases since last month. We know inflation will start creeping in soon; it’s just a matter of when.

Earnings Announcements: WMT

Friday

Economic Reports: CPI, Core CPI, Industrial Production, Michigan Sentiment

As mentioned above, inflation has been held in check, and the CPI and Core CPI announcements that come out on Friday are expected to show little to no change since last month.

The Industrial Production report (and Capacity Utilization) for April are expected to show more sobering numbers. The manufacturing sector is going nowhere fast. Until these readings turn positive, any economic rally will be short lived.

Finally, the preliminary Michigan Sentiment report for May is released on Friday. Expectations are for a very small drop since last month. With the market moving up over the last few months, and the Fed stating that they see and end to the economic downturn by the end of the year, I think this report will surprise to the positive side. Nothing major, just a slight improvement.

Source: A Big Week for Retailers, Will Inflation Be Held In Check?

Employment Numbers Are About To Get Historically Bad

Christian Hill — Mon, 04 May 2009 17:46:45 +0000

This could get ugly. Another month, another 600k+ jobs expected to be lost. This would mark the 16th straight month of job losses, just one month short of the longest streak in history.

Needless to say, when the number of jobs lost every month is in excess of 600k, we aren’t going to see an abrupt stop. We will unfortunately set the record for consecutive months of job losses in the next few months.

Monday

Economic Reports: Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales report for March comes out this morning at 10:00 am, and I am a little surprised by the expectations (flat). With all the foreclosures continuing, and prices still sliding, I think this report will show a modest increase in Pending Home Sales.

Earnings Announcements: S

Tuesday

Economic Reports: ISM Services

This could be another month of contraction in the services sector if expectations are accurate. One thing to note when the report is released is if any sectors are expanding versus contracting. Last month the only sector to display expansion was in real estate rental and leasing. In any event, until more sectors are expanding than contracting the economy will continue to languish.

Earnings Announcements: KFT, UBS

Wednesday

Earnings Announcements: CSCO

Thursday

Earnings Announcements: GM, VRSN

Friday

Economic Reports: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Earnings Announcements: TM

Source:Employment Numbers Are About To Get Historically Bad

Inflation, Retail, and Housing Reports; Earnings Go Full Bore

Christian Hill — Mon, 13 Apr 2009 15:45:14 +0000

This promises to be a very busy week with a full calendar of economic reports and earnings announcements, so let’s dive right in and highlight some of the more important ones.

Tuesday:
Economic Reports: PPI, Core PPI, Retail Sales.

Are we beginning to see inflation creep in? Those were my thoughts after the January and February reports showed increases in the PPI. But this month’s reports are expected to stay flat. The Core PPI report which excludes food and energy costs is expected to post a slight increase. The figure has been increasing every month since January, but the increase is slowing every month. So with both these reports remaining relatively the same, inflation seems to be held in check at least for now.

Retail Sales for March are announced at 8:30 am, and somehow, someway, they are expected to show an increase versus February. I’m not sure where this jump is coming from, so I will be curious to see the data when it is released.

Earnings Announcements: CSX, GS, INTC, JNJ

Wednesday:
Economic Reports: CPI, Core CPI, Industrial Production, Fed Beige Book

Much of what I said above about the PPI reports applies to the CPI and Core CPI reports released today. Both are expected to show increases, but a smaller increase than the last few months. Inflation is still being held in check.

Industrial Production is unfortunately expected to show further declines. While this pace is also slowing, it is still not encouraging that we are still seeing a decline at all. Until factories get back to increased production, the economy is going to struggle.

While it does not come with an expected number, the Fed Beige Book still garners attention when it is released. It gathers insight from the twelve Fed regions relating to their individual outlooks on their region. This is combined to give an overall national outlook. Hopefully at least a few regions will begin to show some positive economic signs.

Earnings Announcements: ABT

Thursday:

Economic Reports: Building Permits, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed

Housing is back in the news on Thursday. March Building Permits are expected to show a slight increase, while Housing Starts in March are expected to show a much larger decline. After a few months of the market expecting increases and being disappointed for the most part, this month seems a lot more realistic. I expect both these reports to be in line with expectations.

The Philly Fed report also comes out Thursday, and it looks like the manufacturing sector is facing continued slowdowns. As I mentioned with the Industrial Production report, manufacturing needs to get going to help bolster the economy. It looks like that’s not happening anytime soon, based on how far down this reading has slipped.

Earnings Announcements: BAX, GOOG, HOG, JPM

Friday:

Economic Reports: Michigan Sentiment

It looks like consumers are at least starting to feel better. While this reading would be encouraging if it holds true (consumers need to feel positive about things in order to spend money), we could still be a long way from a real turnaround.

Earnings Announcement: C, GE

Source: Inflation, Retail, and Housing Reports; Earnings Go Full Bore

Jobs Were Added?

Charles Delvalle — Wed, 02 Apr 2008 18:36:23 +0000

It struck me as particularly strange that ADP payroll numbers showed a small 9,000 job gain in March. Really, a gain? Now I’m really interested to see what the next job report says. I don’t like the fact that we’re adding jobs. It makes me feel like we’re towards the end of the slowdown. And if that’s the case, then this was one of the shortest recessions on record. A whopping couple months.

Although the thing is that it’s been about seven to eight months since the Fed first cut interest rates. So we should start feeling the effect of those cuts right about now. If things start shaping up better now, then in three months they should be much better.

My task in the next few days is to start looking for some beaten down companies with a chart I can trade on. I will also continue soaking up all these economic reports to see if we really are close to a floor.

While i’m not calling an end to this recession, I do think we need to start paying attention to the upside risks of shorting in this market.