So I say, “I was just wondering, because it looks like the economic slowdown has shown up in the Dow Jones Transportation Average, which has made so little money in shuffling goods hither and thither that a share of all the companies in the index earned a total of 82 cents, which is down from the $170.63 they earned at this time last year.”

He looks at me and asks, “Who cares? And what in the hell is a hither and thither?”

So I grab him by the arm and say, “Well, as a self-employed person yourself, and as any self-employed person can tell you, there have always been times when earnings drop to 82 cents! Sometimes less! Like that time when ‘word of mouth’ got around about me and nobody would engage my professional services because everybody had heard that I was incompetent and pretty stupid, and there were long, long stretches where I did not make even 82 cents because I was, like they said, incompetent and stupid.”

Then he says, “You saying I’m stupid? You looking for trouble?”

Suddenly, being the professional that I am, I could see that we were not going anywhere with this conversation, probably because he was prejudiced against smelly, drunken old men coming up out of the smoky darkness of a low-class strip club and grabbing his arm, yammering about economics.

Thus forewarned, I cleverly I reply, “Do I think you are stupid? Is that what you are asking me? Well, answer me this… Do you think that it is Beyond Freaking Insane (BFI) that the Federal Reserve is creating so much money and credit so that the federal government can borrow and spend the money, plunging us even farther into debt so that the total national debt, now at a terrifying 80% of GDP, will rise to 100% of GDP and then so horribly, terribly much more? Is this, in your trucking opinion, the Totally Wrong Thing (TWT) to do, and that the only Smart Thing To Do (STTD) would be to buy gold, silver and oil as protection against the complete ruination of the buying power of the dollar thanks to such oversupply of dollars and crushing debt?”

I figured he was going to say “Huh?” so when he looks at me quizzically and says “Huh?” I shout, “Exactly! And normally I would not even remark upon it except to seize the opportunity to ridicule the morons who own the stocks in the transportation index because, as I write this, they have bid the index up to a closing price of $3,705.92, making the price-to-earnings ratio soar to an unheard-of, laughable, impossible, ludicrous 4,493! Hahahaha! A P/E of 4,493! Hahaha! The normal range of P/E ratios is from about 4 or 5 up to 21, with the average being about 12 to 14! But the Transports are at 4,493! Hahaha!”

Again, he looked at me and said, “Huh?”

Before I could tell him that after due consideration, yes, I think he is an idiot who should be buying gold, silver and oil, both our attentions were diverted as the beautiful Miss Angela Divine began taking the stage.

As she slithered her hip-grinding way to the pole, gyrating to the beat of pulsating rhythm of the primal music, I noticed that she was wearing a gold G-string bikini! That’s my girl!

Source: A Truckload of Bad Data

You can easily understand that, given the number of TV’s here… more than one per person. In times of economic turmoil, people tend to stay home and hunker down in front of the “tube” instead of going out shopping… for things like TV’s.

So it was a surprise to nearly everyone that February’s LCD TV sales were 39% higher than the same period last year. This accomplishment is even more dramatic given it occurred right in the middle of the nastiest economic slowdown since the Great Depression.

And the blistering sales rise wasn’t just in the U.S., according to consumer research NPD Group. Sales in Europe were up 49%, China sales more than doubled at 109%, and even recession-ravaged Japan had a gain of 30%.

It’s all a great reversal of fortune for Corning (NYSE:GLW), the world’s largest maker of glass panels for LCD screens. Its shares have nearly doubled since last November’s lows, and the company now expects to report a first quarter profit.

Corning’s fortunes are closely tied to the world’s appetite for new LCD screens, as it supplies the glass for over 50% of them. Fully 90% of its net income now comes from LCD glass sales.

Even though overall sales of TV’s are forecast to decline 4% this year, sales of LCD sets are expected to rise nearly 9%. The reason is major advances in manufacturing techniques have resulted in set prices dropping like a stone.

By some analyst’s measures, Corning is already too expensive, trading at roughly 16 times 2009’s earnings estimates and 13.7 times those for 2010.

But these guys are ignoring the China factor. You see, China has a new subsidy program that promotes a widespread adoption of consumer electronics, particularly in rural areas of the country. And LCD TV’s are first on the list of things every Chinese wants to own.

Two of the biggest LCD panel makers in Taiwan – both Corning customers – are rapidly expanding their manufacturing capacity to meet the new demand driven by the Chinese subsidy program.

In a move to diversify its revenue stream, Corning is eyeing the possible purchase of the half of the Dow Corning venture it doesn’t already own. That venture owns 63% of Hemlock Semiconductor, an important polysilicon supplier to the semiconductor and solar panel markets.

Investors who want increased exposure to China, consumer electronics, solar and semiconductors, might want to consider a few shares of Corning. It’s shares could easily experience another double over the next several years, especially as the Chinese join the ranks of the TV watching world.

Source: Corning (NYSE:GLW): Stock of the Day

The revised loss estimate, nearly double the previous forecast issued in December, reflects “the rapid deterioration of the global economic conditions,” Geneva-based IATA said in a statement.

The industry body had estimated in December the airlines would lose $2.5 billion in 2009. Airline capacity could shrink 6% as carriers shed jobs, eliminate routes and idle planes to survive shrinking passenger and cargo demand sparked by the global recession.

IATA based its revised estimates on a 1.9% contraction in global GDP, which is suffering the deepest recession in 70 years. The December forecast was based on a projected 0.9% drop.

“The state of the airline industry today is grim,” IATA Director General Giovanni Bisignani said in a press conference, Bloomberg News reported. “Demand has deteriorated much more rapidly with the economic slowdown than could have been anticipated even a few months ago. The industry is in intensive care.”
The deepening recession has pushed almost 40 airlines worldwide out of business and toppled previously profitable operators such as British Airways Plc (LON:BAY) and Cathay Pacific Airways Ltd. (ADR:CPCAY), into the loss column.

Losses in the fourth quarter of 2008 exceeded $4 billion, compared with the previous estimate of  $1 billion – even as oil prices dropped by more than 50% from their $147 peak in July.  Some airlines suffered from being locked-in to fuel hedging positions which kept them from fully taking advantage of cheaper crude, IATA said.

“The relief of lower fuel prices is overshadowed by falling demand and plummeting revenues,” Bisignani said.

And official numbers don’t really paint a clear picture of how bad things really are. Some airlines used hedging instruments that were marked to market because they’d have produced a cash loss if exercised, which would have jumped industry losses from an estimated $8.5 billion in 2008 to as much as $17 billion.
To make matters worse, IATA’s figures don’t include non-cash items such as a $6.9 billion goodwill write-off from the merger of Delta Air Lines Inc.(DAL) and Northwest Airlines Corp. Counting those items, the industry’s loss last year would have climbed to roughly $21 billion.

The numbers confirm the current downturn could be worse than the aftermath of the 2001 terrorist attacks, which put a major chill on air travel worldwide. Industry revenues fell about 7%, or $23 billion, from 2000 to 2002.

By comparison, revenues are expected to fall by $63 billion, or 12%, to $467 billion, the association said.  Passenger and cargo traffic are likely to drop by 5.7% and 13%, respectively in 2009.

On top of the global slowdown, the industry carries whopping debt loads of $170 billion, which puts further pressure on the balance sheet.

“Airlines are facing an unprecedented global crisis due to a deepening global recession,” the trade body said in its statement. “The sharp drop in passenger and cargo demand is reshaping the industry, with drastic change from capacity cuts, to consolidation talks and cost-reduction measures.”

Carriers in North America are expected to survive the downturn better than others because they have been able to reduce capacity fast enough to keep up with the drop in demand.

That should allow them to turn last year’s losses into a profit of about $100 million, IATA said. All other regions will operate in the red, including losses of $1.7 billion in the Asia-Pacific region and $1 billion in Europe.

The Swiss-based body said its latest forecast assumes the economy and air transport demand would hit bottom by mid-2009 and then start to recover, Reuters reported.

“We do expect better prospects toward the end of this year or the beginning of 2010,” Bisignani told a news conference at Geneva airport.

Source: Airline Losses Mount as Revenues Dive Below Post-911 Levels

The closest fellow they’ve got is Wen Jiabao – China’s prime minister and a man intent on spending his way out of the country’s economic problems. He might just succeed, too. More on him in a minute.

While millions of Irish revelers (and wannabe Irish) were no doubt nursing ugly hangovers this morning, China has one of its own: A record 25.7% plunge in exports during February.

With the Chinese New Year holiday having occurred in late January this year, economists expected February’s numbers to look better than January’s 17.5% drop from a year earlier – or to at least stabilize. But instead, it highlighted a country with a split personality.

Let’s look at China’s Jeckyll and Hyde economy…

February Flop

On the one hand, it’s evident that China having a very hard time selling its goods to the rest of the world, which (like China) is in the midst of a sharp economic slowdown. For example, deep recessions have hit major export consumers like the U.S. and U.K., plus widespread weakness across Europe.

For a country whose massive export growth has formed the foundation of its economic explosion, it’s no surprise that with this pivotal sector having steadily declined since November, so too has China’s economic growth.

A government forecast puts China’s first quarter GDP growth at 6.5%, compared with the 6.8% fourth quarter figure. And as exports tumble, the World Bank now estimates 6.5% growth for 2009 overall, the weakest since 1990 and a sharp cut from its earlier 7.5% projection.

But on the other hand, there are signs that China’s stimulus program is working, with internal investment rising.

China Hopes For Some Bang For Its Yuan

While its export market is flagging, China’s government is trying to boost its prospects in a way that it can directly control: Spending.

And with a $585 billion stimulus package rolling through its economy, China is adhering to the notion that if you want the best results, you have to spend a bit to get them. China’s banks have lent more money over the past three months than in the past year, according to the New York Times. The number of loans in February alone quadrupled to just over one trillion yuan ($157 billion).

A large portion of the money is going towards repairing and rebuilding China’s aging infrastructure. The National Bureau of Statistics said fixed-asset investment spending shot up by 26.5% to 1.03 trillion yuan over the first two months of 2009, compared with the January-February period in 2008. That thrashed estimates by 5%.

In turn, the improvements could give China a crucial competitive advantage. While others bail out their economies and slide into debt, China is using its strong cash position (ironically borne largely from its export growth) to now help offset export declines and its reliance on that area by improving prosperity from within.

Already, railroad spending tripled over the first two months of the year – much-needed investment for an industry that has struggled to cope with industrial production and demand. That’s in addition to increased spending on the country’s roadways. Construction equipment sales are projected to climb by 20% over the second half of 2009. Education, research and development, and social programs are also enjoying increased spending.

In some ways, the global downturn has forced China to stop relying on its exports and real estate market for growth and instead adopt a wider, more strategic focus.

And there could be more on the way…

Back Up The Stimulus Truck

China’s Prime Minister Wen Jiabao is certainly bullish when it comes to spending money.

Four months after announcing the $585 billion stimulus package, Jiabao pledged to “significantly increase” spending in a speech two weeks ago. He reiterated that more recently in saying that the government has “reserved adequate ammunition” to “introduce new stimulus at any time.”

He may need to, in order to meet his government’s 8% GDP growth target and stem the tide of rising unemployment. With 20 million migrant Chinese workers now jobless and blue-collar job wages falling, it puts additional pressure on China’s fragile pension and healthcare systems – and heightens the prospect of social unrest.

But with all the new money washing through its economy, China is still a viable investment…

In The Year Of The Ox, Should You Be A China Bull?

“As long as the government’s stimulus measures to boost domestic consumption are properly implemented, investment growth will continue to accelerate, making up for the loss of exports.”

So says Ma Jiantang, head of China’s National Statistics Bureau. And given the surprising speed with which many investors have jumped off the China bandwagon, that bodes well for those who still retain some perspective.

Despite cutting its forecast for China, the World Bank says China will fare better than most other economies, driven by its stimulus efforts. In addition to huge infrastructure spending and bank lending, retail sales were up 15.2% over the first two months of the year, with auto sales rocketing 25% higher. And the Shanghai stock market is up 22% this year, too.

Plus, firms like Intel (Nasdaq: INTC) and manufacturers Hon Tai (Taiwan) and IMI Plc. (Britain) are boosting their operations and employment in China.

What’s more, in the wake of the government loosening regulations on Chinese companies wishing to make foreign acquisitions, the commerce ministry is sending a delegation to Europe, specifically on the hunt for buyout targets in a range of industries.

It’s not all rosy in China, of course. The country is suffering at the hands of the global economic downturn like many others. But China is using the wealth and prosperity it’s built up over the past several years to deal from a position of strength.

So while some headlines may play up the doom and gloom, it’s also clear that the China bull is still alive and kicking in some areas.

Source: China’s New Bull Run

U.S. oil futures rose towards $36 a barrel on Friday, snapping a five-day losing streak ahead of the expected approval of a $789 billion stimulus package by the U.S. Congress to help dig the economy out of recession.

The Democratic-controlled House of Representatives and Senate were expected later on Friday to approve the emergency package to create or save 3.5 million jobs and hand President Barack Obama a big political victory.

The United States is the world’s biggest oil consumer and the economic slowdown that started in the U.S. housing market more than a year ago has undermined energy demand, sending shock waves through the oil market.

Oil prices have fallen more than 70 percent from their peak at almost $150 a barrel last year as economic downturn has spread to all regions of the world.

U.S. crude for March delivery rose $1.84 to $35.82 a barrel by 1611 GMT, after falling $1.96 in the previous session to settle at $33.98 a barrel, its lowest since Dec. 19.

London Brent crude for the new front-month of April fell 73 cents to $45.30 a barrel.

The Brent March contract expired on Thursday at $44.65, extending its premium to U.S. crude to more than $10, mainly due to a glut at the main U.S. storage hub in Oklahoma.

But the Brent premium for the April contract was less than $4, and some analysts expect inventories to ease eventually at Cushing, Oklahoma, the delivery point for the U.S. futures contract, based on West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude.

OIL DEMAND CONTRACTING

“It looks like a bounce on stimulus hopes, but only concentrated on the two front-months,” said Tom Bentz, analyst at BNP Paribas Commodity Futures.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said on Friday world oil demand would contract more sharply than expected this year due to the economic crisis.

Making a possible case for further supply cuts, OPEC said in its monthly report that global demand would fall by 580,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2009 to average 85.13 million bpd. Its previous forecast was for demand to contract by 180,000 bpd.

OPEC, which pumps more than a third of the world’s oil, has agreed at meetings since September to cut its oil output by 4.2 million bpd, equal to 5 percent of daily world demand, to combat the slump in prices and demand.

The report said OPEC still had more to do in delivering existing output promises, suggesting OPEC met 65 percent of its pledge to lower output, according to a Reuters calculation based on the OPEC data.

U.S. oil prices have lost about 14 percent this week and are languishing at a three-week low, pressured by persistent demand worries and doubts over the efficacy of the U.S. government’s banks rescue plan.

Oil’s losses on Thursday were exacerbated by news that the number of people staying on unemployment benefits in the United States rose by 11,000 to a record of 4.810 million in the last week of January.

In the short term, analysts believe the market’s direction would be influenced by movements in stock markets.

European stocks rose on Friday, supported by reports of the imminent passage of Washington’s stimulus package. U.S. stock futures also signalled that Wall Street would open higher, also buoyed by the plan.

LONDON, Feb 13 (Reuters)

• Heavy equipment maker Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) said it will offer voluntary early retirement packages to about 2,000 workers. Age and length of tenure will determine who gets the offer. “Our intent is to provide eligible employees the opportunity to retire early as we expect significant declines in all geographic regions,” Sid Banwart, vice president of human services, said in a release.

• Canada recorded its first monthly trade deficit in December, its first in more than 30 years. The C$458 million deficit ($366 million) stems from “collapsing commodity prices and the deep dive in U.S. spending, especially on autos,” Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, told Bloomberg. The country is the No. 1 exporter of oil and natural gas to the U.S., and overall exports fell 9.7% in December.

• Research in Motion Ltd. (RIMM) said its quarterly earnings would meet the low end of expectations. “You probably see big financial institutions cutting costs … and the consumer is just not getting a new handset,” James Cordwell, an analyst with Atlantic Equities in London, told Reuters. “It just shows they’re not immune to the economic slowdown like anybody else.”

• General Electric Co. (GE) said it signed a $1 billion contract to build 30 gas turbines in Saudi Arabia. Demand for power is growing in the Middle East, and GE said it has sold 188 gas turbines in 2008 and may sell about 185 in 2009, Bloomberg reported.

• Investors flocked to the U.S dollar yesterday, as it rose against the yen and euro in volatile trading. The dollar was bolstered by a flight to safety surrounding uncertainty about the final size and scope of the U.S. stimulus package. The general consensus was that the U.S. bank bailout plan unveiled on Tuesday covered the key areas needed to stem the hemorrhaging in the banking sector, Reuters reported.  In late afternoon trading, the dollar was up 0.3% against the yen at 90.53 yen. The euro was down 0.4% at $1.2848.

• General Motors Corp. (GM) is asking Sweden to guarantee $600 million in European Investment Bank loans to keep the Saab Automobile unit operating until it can be restructured for sale, Bloomberg reported, citing an anonymous source. The money, along with about $400 million (3.36 billion kronor) from GM, would allow Saab to introduce new models that would keep Saab competitive, and possibly prevent it from being put into administration or closed down. GM is trying to figure out what to do with Saab by Feb. 17, the due date for a progress report to the U.S. Treasury on how it will become viable so it can repay $13.4 billion in government loans by 2011.

• Gold soared to a 7-month high on Wednesday as investors bought gold and bullion-backed exchange-traded funds.  U.S. gold futures pushed through resistance levels just above $930 and rose $30.80 to $944.50 an ounce for April delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. Most analysts are projecting gold to rise above $1,000 this year, as safe-haven buying and demand for gold as a hedge against inflation are expected to continue, MarketWatchreported.

• China will make its biggest ever investment in a foreign company by injecting  $19.5 billion in cash into mining group Rio Tinto Group (ADR: RTP), the Financial Times reported.  Chinalco, a state-owned aluminum producer will increase its stake in Rio Tinto to 18%, grabbing a minority share in some of its best mining assets and an issue of convertible bonds.  The deal will come under intense scrutiny from Australian politicians, who had imposed a 15% limit on Chinalco’s holdings.

Source:  Global Investment News Briefs Thursday, February 12th, 2009

Well…they floated the whole world economy on a sea of debt… even making loans to people they knew were going to sink.

And they took bonuses on profits they hadn’t actually earned.

And they paid themselves the cash that their banks now desperately need.

And, they created trillion-dollar debt torpedoes – which are now exploding all over the planet, leading to $32 trillion in losses…so far.

And they set the stage for a cycle of mass unemployment, strikes, depression, protectionism, riots, revolutions, poverty and probably even starvation.

And, oh yes, they blew up their own banks too.

But aside from that, they are pretty decent fellows, no? More about bankers and CEOs…below…

Meanwhile, in Spain, unemployment grew 47 % in the last 12 months. 14% of the workforce is out of a job.

In Ireland, “public sector workers face pay cut,” says the Financial Times. The Irish government is running out of time and money.

In China, 20 million people have had to give up their city jobs and go back to the countryside in search of work.

IBM says it cut salaries by 15%. UPS said it froze its payroll.

U.S. property owners lost $3.3 trillion last year, says Bloomberg. Houses in Las Vegas fell 41%. In Phoenix, they went down 43%. Miami homeowners saw a 40% decline.

But yesterday, investors thought they saw a little light on the horizon…perhaps a rescue ship? The number of pending sales, of existing houses, actually went up in December. This was enough, according to the press reports, to bring them back into the stock market and raise the Dow 141 points.

Oil held steady at $40. And gold rose $14 to $892.

Our guess is that the little light investors thought they saw will turn out to be another torpedo blowing up. Millions of homeowners and stock market investors have gone down already…but there are many still afloat. And many torpedoes that still haven’t found their marks.

In Japan, for example, property prices began falling in 1991. They fell for the next 13 years…reaching a low in 2004 equal to where they had been in 1973!

If that pattern plays out in the United States, the housing market won’t hit bottom until 2020…when you’ll be able to sell your house for what you paid for it in 1989.

As for stocks…

“Despite the vicious bear market we experienced in 2008,” writes our old friend Marc Faber, “the Dow Jones in real terms is still higher than at its 1929 and 1966 peaks.”

Marc admits that the inflation adjustment figures – provided by the people who create the inflation – may not be perfectly accurate. But even if you adjust the numbers to much higher levels of inflation since ’29, “stocks in real terms would still be nowhere near their 1932 or 1982 lows.”

You can avoid the fuzziness caused by inflation by looking at the price of stocks in terms of gold. Over the very, very long term, gold holds its value. An ounce of gold buys about as much stuff now as it did during the reign of Julius Caesar. How could that be? The explanation is simple: mankind adds to the quantity of gold above ground at about the same rate that it adds other goods and services.

That doesn’t mean that gold’s price is stable – far from it. The price goes up and down – depending on what else is going on. Generally, the more confidence people have in the financial system, the less need they have for gold. But over the long run gold has been the world’s most reliable, most universal store of value.

The stock market low of the early ’80s coincided with a low-ebb of confidence in the dollar and in bonds. At one point, the price of gold rose over to $800 an ounce…while the Dow fell to 776. That one-to-one ratio marked a turning point. Thence, stocks soared and gold fell.

The next turning point came 17 years later – in 1999 – when gold was back to $260 and the Dow was over 10,000. At the peak, it took 43 ounces of gold to buy the Dow stocks.

Since then, gold has been in a bull market, while stocks have declined. But even now, it still takes about 10 ounces of gold to buy the Dow stocks. Which tells us that this correction still has a long way to go. Wait until the Dow and gold reach the same number…then, the light you see on the horizon may be daylight.

*** The Singularity is Near is a book by Ray Kurzweil. It refers to a time – in the not-too-distant future – when machines will be smarter than bankers. And now, the Financial Times tells us that the moment is not far off – only a few years. Then, machines “will solve problems including energy scarcity, climate change and hunger.”

Which makes us wonder; what’s in that pink ink? Something is addling brains at the FT. Machines can already think better than humans. That is, they can already do calculations faster than we can. And they can remember things better too. And, using Google, they can find things and make connections faster.

Machines can help build safer bridges. They can help cure diseases. They can play chess and tell you where you left your car keys. But they can’t solve social and political problems…at least not directly. A smart computer could help build a more energy efficient automobile, but it can’t solve the problem of energy scarcity.

Because there isn’t really an energy scarcity problem. Engineers, technicians and businessmen produce and sell energy – just like they produce and sell diamonds or custard pies. Stuff – including energy – is always ‘scarce.’ Even sand is scarce. The Sahara may be full of it; but when you want some for your backyard, it won’t be free. Machines – as smart as they are – can’t solve this ‘problem.’ Resources are allocated either by the invisible hand – the give and take of free people – or by the heavy hand of whoever is in power. Smart machines aren’t going to change that.

*** “The Great Repression” Niall Ferguson calls it. He’s referring to the fixers’ attempts to stop the correction. Ferguson favors treating the oversized debt with a mixture of boondogglization and liquidation. He thinks the state should take over banks…recapitalize them…and re-privatize them “say in 10 years.”

“Honor the rule of law…in the breach,” he continues, oxymoronically. He would simply force mortgage-holders to accept new terms and conditions – notably a much lower interest rate. This would lower homeowners’ payments, thus allowing more of them to hold onto their houses. In effect, he proposes a kind of pre-emptive default…like removing a man’s kidneys before he is dead…or having a cigarette before making love. By order of the government, a portion of the mortgage’s value would be liquidated…stiffing the lenders, but favoring the borrowers.

*** In the complaints about corporate pay comes a tedious refrain. Corporate jets are a “symbol of greed and excess,” says a Financial Times comment.

But this time, the FT comes to defend the CEOs: “The reality is that boards that lavish tens of millions on a top executive would be squandering resources by asking them to spend precious hours in security-obsessed airports…” continues the report.

Again, we wonder what has gone wrong at the FT. Have they ever spent any time with a “top CEO?” In our experience, a CEO’s time is taken up with countless meetings…countless conferences…luncheons…phone calls…briefings and reports. A corporate jet is a marvelous addition to his routine. It enables him to fly off to yet more meetings…while having a staff conference en route. Then, when he arrives at the airport, a limousine awaits him…with yet another person with whom he must meet …along with briefing papers and preparation documents for his next rendezvous.

If he is aggressive and acquisitive, one flight will take him to a meeting with lawyers, where he will discuss the strategy of a takeover. The next flight will take him to a meeting with the financiers, where he will discuss the terms of the options and other emoluments to be distributed. And yet another flight will take him to a meeting with investors…where he will recite the lines given him, with authority and confidence. His firm is not merely in pursuit of excellence, he will tell his audience; it IS excellence embodied. Just look at the last quarter’s results!

All of this makes him feel terribly important…and it describes the life of the typical Wall Street big shot during the bubble years.

Too bad corporate boards didn’t cancel the jets 10 years ago. Maybe…sitting in an airport without an Internet connection, the CEOs might have had a moment to think. About how little they really understood about their own businesses… About what mediocre clowns and connivers they really were. About how markets routinely turn geniuses into morons and heroes into schmucks. And maybe…maybe a bright light might have shone forth from their reflections…causing them to realize that they were on a flight to Hell.

Source: Wall Street Bankers: The World’s Most Privileged Outcasts

This from Today’s Financial News:

Even with the threat of a strike, crude prices managed to dip below the crucial $40 level, the unofficial delineator between cheap and moderately priced oil. What will happen through the rest of the week is up to the United Steelworkers.

If the union, which represents some 30,000 employees and about 70% of the nation’s refinery production, votes against the proposed contract, volatility is bound to rise. If a contracted is ratified over the next day or so, then volatility and prices are likely to drop even further.

The union and the nation’s oil companies are working on a day-by-day basis, but insiders say they are getting close to a compromise. In fact, some say it looks like a strike may even be unlikely. But unions have surprised us before and will certainly do it again.

Destroying what’s left

What makes a worker want to go on strike in this economic downturn, especially after they were promised a raise, remains out of my grasp. But then again, what makes unions tick in the first place has always been a mystery to me. They drove large manufacturers out of my hometown, took Detroit to its knees and now they are threatening to tear at the throat of the nation’s last great blue-collar profit maker.

If these workers get the guts to strike, as an investor, you have a few options. You can pick a major oil refiner, like Valero (NYSE:VLO), the nation’s largest, and short it. After all, even a short-term strike will pull down its quarterly profits.

Another option is to play the broader refining industry through an ETF like United States Gasoline Fund (NYSE:UGA). As production falls, gasoline prices will rise.

Finally, you can play the broader energy market through a fund like the Ultra Oil and Gas ProShares (NYSE:DIG). If shares go up, its price will jump at a two-to-one ratio, at least on a day-to-day basis. Be careful with these ETFs as they are calculated on a single day, not a long-term trend. With the right level of volatility, these shares can actually drop in value even as prices rise over the long-term.  They do it quite often.

But do not be certain crude prices will rise because of a refinery-level strike. Chances are, it could be just the opposite. We already have too much oil on the market. If refineries shut down, the supply glut will be even worse. In that case, take the Ultrashort Oil and Gas ProShares (NYSE:DIG).

No matter which slant you take or which way you choose to invest, one thing is certain. The nation’s largest companies are once again out of the predictable hands of a free market. They have been seized by unions and greedy politicians.

It makes the job of an investor even harder, but the profit opportunity is there just the same.

Source: Playing a potential refinery strike

Oil prices fell towards $45 a barrel on Tuesday as the market began to anticipate data showing rising fuel inventories that reflect economic slowdown.

Prices had earlier advanced more than a dollar, boosted partly by cold weather in top energy consumer the United States, plus signs OPEC oil supply cuts may have begun to bite.

U.S. light, sweet crude for March delivery fell 66 cents to $45.07 a barrel by 1259 GMT. It earlier touched a session high of $47.49 a barrel and a session low of $44.40.

U.S. crude has rebounded from below $33 a barrel in the past week.

London Brent crude fell 92 cents to $46.04 a barrel.

“The retreat toward the lower end of the trading range is suggests the market is anticipating stock builds in the API figures,” said Christopher Bellew of broker Bache Commodities Ltd.

The American Petroleum Institute (API), an industry body, has moved publication of its weekly inventory report to 2130 GMT on Tuesdays from Wednesdays, a day earlier than official government inventory data released on Wednesday.

The government data is forecast to show that U.S. crude oil stocks rose a further 2.7 million barrels last week, the fifth straight week of gains.

Colder weather is expected to help draw down distillate stocks by 800,000 barrels, according to a Reuters poll. Gasoline stocks are likely to have risen by 1.3 million barrels.

ABOVE LOWS

The U.S. cold snap has helped prices move up from lows earlier in January of $32.7 a barrel, but analysts say the recovery may be temporary.

“Unless OPEC production cuts in January were substantially greater than what we have assumed, it is still too early to be calling an end to this current bear market,” Goldman Sachs said in a research note.

Oil’s supply/demand picture remains weak, Goldman said, pointing to a large counter-seasonal stock build in the United States and extremely weak demand in China, the world’s second largest energy consumer.

Oil has dropped more than $100 from a record peak above $147 a barrel in July last year, depressed by falls in demand as the credit crisis has pushed the global economy towards recession.

Goldman said retail investors were moving into oil, attracted by its low price, so that speculative positions or “length” in the oil market is now larger at $45 a barrel than it was at $147.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries has agreed to reduce supply by 4.2 million barrels per day since September to try to support prices. The producer group is due to meet next in March.

A cyclone off western Australia has shut down nearly half of the country’s oil output, but some operators said production was likely to resume by Wednesday as the storm weakens.

Later on Tuesday, U.S. President Barack Obama goes to Capitol Hill to campaign for an $825 billion economic stimulus package to be put to a House vote within days.

LONDON, Jan 27 (Reuters)

U.S. stocks fell on Thursday with the major indexes down more than 2 percent after a surprisingly grim earnings report from Microsoft Corp and economic data that showed further deterioration in the labor and housing markets.

Microsoft, raising worries over how it would fare in the economic slowdown, said it would cut up to 5,000 jobs over the next 18 months and that it could no longer offer profit forecasts for the rest of the fiscal year. The stock was among the Dow’s biggest drags, falling 8 percent.

“It is a negative surprise for the market, certainly from a bellwether technology company. For Microsoft to miss its guidance, it brings home the pervasive fallout from the credit crisis,” said Richard Sparks, senior equities analyst at Schaeffer’s Investment Research in Cincinnati, Ohio.

“On Wednesday, we had been able to bounce from the 8,000 level on the Dow. This (Microsoft news) makes it inevitable to retest the November lows for the market.”

The results, which had been expected to be released later in the day, added to the already negative tone after data showing the number of workers filing new claims for jobless benefits rose by more than expected last week, while housing starts and permits fell to a record low in December, data showed.

The Dow Jones industrial average fell 195.30 points, or 2.37 percent, to 8,032.80. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index was down 21.20 points, or 2.52 percent, at 819.04. The Nasdaq Composite Index gave up 48.55 points, or 3.22 percent, to 1,458.52.

Investors were watching for a vote by the U.S. Senate Finance Committee on the nomination of Timothy Geithner to be Treasury secretary.

Geithner faced tough questioning at his confirmation hearing before the committee on Wednesday. Wall Street had originally cheered Geithner’s nomination but the choice has since come under controversy over Geithner’s failure to pay some taxes.

NEW YORK, Jan 22 (Reuters)