“I don’t know if I will live to see it,” said Brazil’s president Luiz (Lula) da Silva a couple weeks ago. “But Brazil has to transform itself into a big power in the 21st century. We have everything to make it happen. We are not talking about a little country here.”

No, indeed. Brazil is not “a little country” anymore. Any prudent investor has to consider how to hitch a ride on the Brazil growth story. Brazil is transforming into one of the world’s great powers in this century. It’s important to follow the news from Brazil. At the same time, you have to know where to look, and how to read between the lines.

By official count — what the Brazilian government will confirm — the rocks of Brazil hold nearly 20 billion barrels of proven reserves. That number is on par with the total for U.S. oil reserves, including Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.

It’s an impressive number, but then there’s also the unofficial Brazilian reserve count. How much oil is “really” down there under Brazilian jurisdiction? It depends with whom you talk. Some Brazilian officials will smile and say the country has 50 billion barrels of resources. If the Brazilians can tap into this treasure, it adds up to more than twice the total reserves of the U.S., including Alaska.

Other knowledgeable — VERY knowledgeable — Brazilians give much larger estimates. I’ve seen estimates that place the resource number at “over 100 billion barrels.” This puts Brazil in with the largest of the large oil nations, such as Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

These massive oil resources offshore Brazil lie beneath deep water and thick layers of salt. And since it’s all within Brazilian waters, the government of Brazil is increasing its control over offshore development. This way, Brazil will have its own oilmen keeping an eye out for the overall national interest — and making big money for the Brazilian treasury.

The new level of Brazil’s state control over oil development is a strategic decision. Brazil is counting on the hydrocarbon resources to help propel it forward as one of the world’s major powers. And the development in Brazil will control the destiny of a good number of players in the OI portfolio.

Many companies whose fate is tied to the wheel of the Brazilian ship of state are in that portfolio. All of them have operations that span the globe. They’re not a pure play on Brazilian energy development. Just the same, it’s nice to know that they’ll be pulling down a big chunk of business in one booming region over the next couple of decades. As I see it, these firms are long-term core holdings for any diversified energy portfolio.

Gold on the Move

This week, the price of gold touched $1,040 per ounce. Silver also took the elevator to higher floors, to now over $17 per ounce. It’s been good news for all of the gold and silver miners in the OI portfolio.

We’re way up on many of the miners I’ve added this year to the OI portfolio. Some of the beaten-down guys are also showing us their inner Lazarus as precious metals prices soar.

What’s with the Rising Tide?

I just love it when the stocks in the OI portfolio are going up. It beats the heck out of what we experienced last October with the meltdown, that’s for sure. And it makes it easier to be the editor of a financial newsletter that focuses on precious metals, energy and other natural resources.

What’s going on? What’s with the rising tide? I believe we’re seeing some short covering in the precious metals arena. It has always amazed me in the past couple of years that there were people out there shorting gold. Huh? It’s like that scene from the movie The Deer Hunter in which Robert De Niro is playing Russian roulette with a pistol holding bullets in the chambers. You don’t have to be crazy to short gold, but it helps.

I may not have the same eyesight today as back when I flew Navy jets. But how close do you have to look to see that the U.S. dollar is in trouble? Yet people still want to bet on the dollar and against gold? Hey, it’s a free country. And I’ve spent the past few years feeling pretty lonely at times as I described my vision of monetary gloom and doom.

So now the dollar is dropping due to bad news on many fronts. The U.S. economy is NOT “recovering,” contrary to the propaganda from Washington. Unemployment is up, and it’ll stay up for a long time. There’s a structural readjustment going on within the U.S. economy, and it’ll take years (maybe decades) to play out. Meanwhile, U.S. tax policy, energy policy and the overall political process are a train wreck in living color. Can anyone explain to me how this has a happy ending?

The world, of course, is noticing. Now we read about a group of nations (the usual suspects, but add in modern allies Japan and France) trying to figure out how to ditch the dollar and use some other medium of exchange to trade oil. It’s not exactly a new rumor, but now it’s getting traction. And like people smelling smoke in a crowded theater, dollar holders are looking for the exit signs.

Is anyone surprised at this? How much fiscal and monetary abuse can the greenback stand? Hence, the precious metals prices are levitating.

We’ll probably see a pullback in precious metals prices, but that’s just going to be profit taking and the market working its magic. Long term, the metals are still going up.

It’s part of the long-term thesis of Outstanding Investments. Go with precious metals. Go with energy plays. Go with solid resource plays.

Until we meet again,
Byron King

Source: Energy, Brazil, Gold: What More Could You Want?

“The issue is a disputed border between the two. They fought a 32-day war over it in 1962. China emerged victorious, but the whole thing settled nothing. The border between the two remains hotly contested. It is nearly 2,500 miles long and winds its way across difficult mountainous terrain. There is a northeastern state in India called Arunachal Pradesh, which China calls “Southern Tibet” and claims as Chinese territory.

“India claims last year there were nearly 300 border violations by Chinese troops and over 2,000 instances of ‘aggressive border patrolling.’ In the Indian media, it’s become a kind of sport to guess when China will attack India. And a recent essay by a Chinese analyst added fuel to the fire when it claimed China could ‘dismember the so-called “Indian Union” with one little move.’

“What would the effects be? It’s hard to say. But if the world’s two largest and fastest- growing emerging markets go to war, the results can’t be good for the global economy. China is even India’s largest trading partner. It all depends on how it unfolds.”

Chris will be getting a frontlines view of this flash point over the next few weeks. He and our executive publisher Addison Wiggin will be scouting potential joint ventures in the UAE and India from this weekend until mid-October. For highlights, be sure to check your daily 5 Min. Forecast. But for the nitty-gritty — and actionable advice — keep your eyes open for our new BRIC report… it’ll be ready very soon.

Source: Think China vs. India

China has used depressed commodities prices to stock up on long-term supplies of raw materials such as oil, copper, and iron.  And it’s used structural weakness in the U.S. financial system as justification for replacing the dollar as the world’s main reserve currency.

Now, the Red Dragon is looking to make headway on the highway by winning global market share in the automotive market while U.S. heavyweights spin out.

“We aren’t afraid of the financial crisis,” Zhou Fuquan, vice president of Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (PINK: GELYF), told Bloomberg News. “On the contrary, we hope it will penetrate even further as it has provided us with some opportunities.”

Geely is China’s biggest private automaker, but that isn’t exactly saying much. The company’s annual output is just 300,000 units, and its market share in China is a meager 3%. Still, Hangzhou- based Geely is determined to become a global player in the auto industry. It has ambitions to sell 2 million cars a year, including 1.3 million overseas – even though right now the company generates just 5% of its sales from abroad.

Of course, that’s why the financial crisis has been more of a financial opportunity for Geely. In March, Geely bought key assets from bankrupt Australian gearbox maker Drivetrain Systems International – the world’s second-largest maker of automatic transmissions.

“The economic downturn provides us with very good overseas acquisition opportunities,” Daniel Dai, vice president for international business at Geely, told China Daily. “We get the best technology with the best price.”

Geely has also set up a joint venture with Manganese Bronze Holdings PLC (MBH) to produce the TX4 London Taxi in Shanghai. MBH supplies taxis to Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Spain as well, boosting Geely’s global presence.

For months, analysts have speculated that Geely will continue to its overseas expansion by launching a bid for Ford Motor Co.’s (NYSE: F) Volvo unit. Ford, which is the only “Big Three” auto company to not receive government aid, last December started looking to offload the Swedish car brand in an effort to pay off the debt it accrued when the company borrowed $23.5 billion in 2006.

Geely said on Sept. 9 that it might partner with a state-owned investment company to bid for Volvo. And earlier this week, the company announced that it would raise $334 million in funds from Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) through a convertible bond offering to “fund the capital expenditures of the group, potential acquisitions by the group and for general corporate purposes of the group.”

However, some analysts have pointed out that the Goldman capital falls well short of the roughly $2 billion Ford is asking for Volvo. They believe Geely instead will use the money to increase capacity and market the models it already has to buyers outside of its home market.

“The management is planning to expand its distribution channel to foreign countries,” Richard Li, research director at Celestial Asia Securities Holdings, told Forbes magazine. “This deal can provide this company enough funds so that the cash flow will be upgraded long term.”

And if nothing else, Goldman’s investment could be enough to instill investor confidence in the small Chinese carmaker.

Almost a year ago to the day Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (NYSE: BRK.A, BRK.B) subsidiary MidAmerican Energy Holdings Co. agreed to pay roughly $230 million for a 9.89% stake in Chinese car and battery producer BYD Co. Ltd. Since then, BYD’s shares have jumped more than fivefold in that time.

“A big name investor certainly helps boost stock prices and brand recognition,” Li Lixi, a Northeast Securities Co. analyst in Shanghai, told Bloomberg. “Goldman’s investment in Geely may repeat the impact that [Warren] Buffett had on BYD.”

Geely’s Hong Kong shares yesterday (Wednesday) surged to their highest in more than nine years on the news of Goldman’s investment.

The Race to Build a Competitive Chinese Brand

Geely isn’t the only Chinese companies looking to use the financial crisis as an opportunity to broaden its global reach either. Other Chinese companies, including Beijing Automotive Industry Holdings Co. (BAIC), SAIC Motor Corp. Ltd., and Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery Co., are determined take the lead in what has become a race to be the first world-renowned Chinese automotive company.

“It takes decades to establish a recognized, renowned brand,” Jim Hossack, an industry analyst at researcher AutoPacific Inc., told Bloomberg. “China wants to do it much faster, perhaps within as little as five years.”

BAIC on Sept. 9 joined Koenigsegg Group in its bid for GM’s Saab division. Koenigsegg – backed by U.S. and Norwegian investors – in June agreed to buy Saab from GM, but struggled with financing the deal.

SAIC group, the parent of China’s largest automaker, had also considered coming to Koenigsegg’s aid in the Saab bid. But ultimately it was BAIC that came through with the $420 billion in financing needed to close the deal.

“This is a great opportunity for us to partner up with a brand like Saab that we believe has a great future with a new business plan and new ownership,” Wang Dazong, general manager of Beijing Auto, said in a statement posted on its Web site.

Koenigsegg and BAIC will form a joint venture to market Saab cars in China, where the brand has little-to-no presence. BAIC will also gain valuable technology from the Swedish car company.

“Chinese manufacturers are hoping to buy up technology that will help them catch up to world standards on both the product and the development side more quickly than they would on their own,” Christoph Stuermer, automotive analyst at IHS Global Insight Inc., told the Financial Times.

However, not every Chinese endeavor has been greeted with success. Shanghai-based SAIC in 2004 paid $500 million for 49% of Ssangyong Motor Co. just to watch the South Korean carmaker go into receivership in February. And Sichuan Tengzhong Heavy Industrial Machinery’s attempted takeover of GM’s Hummer brand is still being stalled by China’s central government.

“It’s not in coordination with our nation’s industrial policy,” Vice Minister of Commerce Chen Jian said after sending back Sichuan’s application to acquire the Hummer brand for $100 million.

Still, Chinese auto companies won’t be satisfied until they race ahead of their Western counterparts.

“I’m fighting for what’s in overseas automakers’ rice bowls,” Geely founder Li Shufu told Bloomberg. “I want to build Geely into a global first-tier automaker.”

Source: Financial Crisis Gives Chinese Car Companies a Chance to Get Up to Speed

Back in the 1960s and 1970s, a few major companies took out oil exploration concessions there from the government of South Africa. In 1974, Shell (NYSE: RDS.A / RDS.B) discovered a gas field off the southwest coast with the Kudu project. Early estimates were 1 trillion cubic feet of reserves, but current estimates range up to 10 trillion. Kudu was big, but nobody much cared about natural gas back then. Gas was too cheap, and southern Africa was too far away.

There was hardly any development around Kudu for the next 20 years. South Africa was under international sanctions due to its apartheid regime, so oil companies and other outside investment stayed away. Almost nothing happened with energy development until Namibia became independent in 1990.

By the early 1990s, the gas field at Kudu intrigued foreign oil companies. Kudu showed a large hydrocarbon resource. Clearly, there was significant potential. But nobody really understood the offshore geology. Plus, back then, it was tough to drill in water more than about 1,500 feet deep. Namibia didn’t make for an investment magnet.

But with the recent success of offshore Brazil, the energy exploration expectations of the world have been fundamentally altered. The same brilliant researchers and scientists that discovered the potential of Brazil’s Tupi field are now doing extensive research in offshore West Africa, in particular offshore Namibia. One researcher I’ve been following very closely believes the offshore areas of Namibia are ‘geologic analogues’ to Brazil.

Source: The Next Great Oil Frontier

But while many analysts are focusing on threat of inflation – which could be a byproduct of the U.S. Federal Reserve’s reluctance to withdraw monetary stimulus – investors should really be watching China.

“In the post-financial crisis global economy, China is quickly becoming the proverbial ‘800-pound gorilla’ – the player that has to be courted, but that can’t be tamed,” said Money Morning Contributing Editor Peter Krauth.

In a recent article for Money Morning, Krauth said that he believes the stage has been set for gold to make a lasting run above $1,000 an ounce, in no small part because of China.

For the past six years China has quietly been stocking up on gold, boosting its holdings of the yellow metal to 1,054 metric tons from 400 metric tons in 2003.

What’s more is that earlier this year, the government finally made it legal for Chinese citizens to make their own purchases of the yellow metal.

As recently as 2002, the private ownership of gold was prohibited in China, with jail as the penalty for possession.  But now the government executed a stunning about face and removed all such restrictions. In fact, Beijing is actually encouraging its citizens to purchase the precious metal through state-run media.

China’s Central Television, the nation’s main state-owned television company, is now running news programs, which strongly resemble infomercials, explaining just how easy it is to purchase gold and silver as an investment.

“Simply put, the Chinese government is trying to trigger a national gold craze…and it’s working. The Chinese public now has gold trading platforms on steroids,” Paul Atherly, managing director at Leyshon Resources Ltd. (OTC ADR: LYRSY), said in an investor presentation in London.

Physical gold demand from private Chinese households rose 9% in the first half of this year, due to an “unprecedented” sales push across rural China, according to Gerry Chen, the World Gold Council’s local business development manager.

Most banks in China already offer customers gold and silver bullion bars in four different sizes ranging from one to five kilograms.

A Golden Opportunity?

Of course, it’s not just the Chinese public that is interested in stepping up its gold purchases. Even though China has nearly tripled the size its gold reserves in the past six years, the declining value of the dollar has given the Red Dragon even more incentive to stock up.

China has about $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves. The vast majority those holdings are in dollar-denominated securities, and therefore are susceptible to the declines in the value of the greenback.

The dollar was been in a precipitous freefall for years before the financial crisis hit in full, sending droves of investors flocking to shelter of the U.S. currency. But now that the global downturn is being to abate, many investors have regained their appetite for risk, and the dollar has resumed its decline.

The dollar has lost 2.5% to a basket of six currencies this month and nearly 5% since early July.

China’s Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, recently told Great Britain’s Telegraph newspaper that “If [the Fed] keep[s] printing money to buy bonds, it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two, the dollar will fall hard. Most of our [Chinese] foreign reserves are in U.S. bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen and other currencies.”

Gold provides China with an excellent opportunity to diversify away from the dollar. Many of the nation’s top policymakers agree, but there’s a question of timing.

“When we buy, the price goes up,” Siwei noted. “We have to do it carefully so as not to stimulate the markets.”

From 2003 to 2009, China spread out its gold purchases over a long period of time and relied heavily on Chinese producers.

But this time around there may be a shortcut, because the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has formally endorsed a plan on Friday to sell 403.3 tons of gold – equal to about one eighth of its holdings – to central banks or in the gold market. Gold demand was 3,880 tons last year, according to the World Gold Council.

That presents China with a tremendous opportunity, because if it decided to buy the gold, China would be able to seek a discount from spot prices, since a market sale would put downward pressure on bullion prices.

“China only has about 1,000 [metric tons] of gold reserves and the investments in other assets are performing not very well,” one official, who declined to be named, told Reuters. “I think we should build up more gold with foreign reserves, but when to buy is the key. It’s a good idea if China can buy the gold from IMF at prices well below market level.”

The Chinese are currently being converted from being the lowest per capita gold consumers in the world to a nation of small precious metals investors. By next year, Chinese gold consumption will likely overtake India, which has been for years the world’s biggest gold market.

With global gold production at best flat and probably in decline, even a small increase in Chinese buying could have a substantial impact on gold prices.

“The lesson here is clear: China’s growing appetite for gold is a powerful trend that will benefit gold investors for years – even decades – to come,” said Money Morning’s Krauth.

According to Krauth, “the biggest bang-for-buck still lies with the junior gold sector. The best proxy for this is the S&P/TSX Venture Composite Index (CDNX),” otherwise known as the Toronto Venture Exchange. It consists of about 75% resource stocks.

The CDNX has been steadily carving new highs almost uninterrupted since March, now posting a whopping 80% gain since its December 2008 low. That’s an impressive performance.

The players in this sector promising the best returns are the junior gold-and-silver companies either already producing, or with near-term production.

“With gold breaking and sustaining the $1,000 barrier, junior gold and silver miners are the place to be for explosive returns,” said Krauth. “Just hold onto your hat.”

Source: How China became the ‘800-Pound’ Gorilla in the Gold Market

After slashing its forecast for the region in March, the ADB reversed course in its updated Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2009. The bank said developing economies in Asia would grow by 3.9% this year, up from its previous forecast of 3.4%.

“Despite worsening conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown,” said ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee.

However, the growth will not be evenly distributed. Economic growth in East Asia will be driven largely by China’s dynamic economy. But economic growth in Southeast Asia will be sluggish, because the recoveries of Vietnam and Indonesia will not be enough to offset weakness in Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia.

ADB boosted its outlook for annual economic growth in China to 8.2% from 7% earlier this year, and the bank believes China’s economic expansion will accelerate to 8.9% next year. That will help push economic growth in East Asia to an annual rate of 4.4%, compared to 0.1% growth in Southeast Asia.

ADB had underestimated China’s resilience in March when it predicted just 3.6% growth for East Asia.

“In the People’s Republic of China, aggressive monetary easing and the massive fiscal stimulus package rolled out by the government bolstered the region’s largest economy, which is now expected to grow by 8.2% in 2009 and 8.9% in 2010, up from the March forecast of 7% and 8% respectively,” said ADB.

Indeed, the potency of China’s $587 billion (4 trillion yuan) stimulus plan caught many analysts off guard.  Two of the world’s key global institutions – the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – and a large swath of investment banks were forced to raise their 2009 and 2010 growth estimates for China’s economy after the country announced second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.9%.

The OECD said it now expects China’s economy to grow by 7.7% this year and the World Bank boosted its projection to 7.2% growth.  GDP will expand by 9.3% in 2010, according to OECD estimates.

BNP Paribas SA (OTC: BNPQY), Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Standard Chartered Bank, and RBC Capital Markets all raised their forecasts for China’s economy as well.

China’s stimulus package gave the economy a big kick in the first half of the year, spurring bank lending and driving fixed asset investment. It even stimulated the oft-maligned Chinese consumer, boosting domestic demand while the market for exports remained dormant.

Chinese banks lent about $1.08 trillion (7.37 trillion yuan) in the first half of the year, nearly double the total loans extended throughout all of 2008.

Fixed-asset investment rose 33.5% in the first half year to $1.34 trillion (9.132 trillion yuan), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Investment in infrastructure rose 57.4% year-over-year, with spending on railways up 126.5% and highway spending up 54.7%. Property sales were up 53% in the first six months from a year earlier.

Of course, fixed-asset investment has been consistently strong in China for the past decade. The real turnaround in the past six months has been that the frugal Chinese consumer has begun to spend more liberally.

China’s retail sales in the first half of the year rose 15% to $859.6 billion (5.87 trillion yuan).

Still, the ADB did warn Asian countries that their strong recovery is still uncertain and said they should continue to carry out stimulus measures until Western countries catch up.

“The improved regional outlook should not make developing Asian economies complacent,” said Lee. “A protracted global slowdown or the hasty withdrawal of stimulus packages can degrade the region’s ongoing recovery.”

Source: Asian Economies to ‘Lead the Recovery,’ Says ADB

You see, the massive fiscal stimuli and ultra-easy money from the Fed does indeed have real effects on the economy.  Whether you want to call them artificial or real, the stimuli have moved and will continue to move profits, until it is withdrawn.  And the timing of the deployment of the fiscal and monetary stimuli, the timing of its positive effects and the timing of its eventual removal are uncertain.

In addition, we have many short-term uncertainties. The upcoming Group of 20 (G20) meeting has potentially important ramifications for the global financial system and for global currencies. We also will get more data about foreclosures, existing and new home sales and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.’s (FDIC) funding needs.  Finally, we have Damocles’ sword hanging over the market with the potential for additional deficit from President Obama’s healthcare reform.

So we are going to go for a safe play that enjoys a nice dividend and presents a compelling value proposition right now: Kimberly Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB).

When in doubt, go for consumer staples.  And a superbly run Kimberly Clark will do the trick.  The stock has overcorrected recently, and the headwinds of soft consumer demand and volatile commodity costs are abating.  What’s more is that KMB’s major source of growth will continue to be emerging economies.

U.S. consumer activity is not as dead as it looks.  While unemployment is still climbing, the rate at which people are losing jobs is declining on a consistent basis.  Additionally, the pick-up in home sales and in the stock market is helping slowly reverse the negative wealth effect suffered from last year’s crash.  Programs like “Cash for Clunkers” and tax incentives for purchases of new homes are having a positive effect on those sectors and are generating increased incomes in the industries that benefit from them.

With respect to emerging markets, the situation is even more positive. Advanced economies are surely going to commit their support to emerging market growth at the G20 meeting in Pittsburgh this week.

This is good for KMB, because supportive trade and capital flows will help propel the main source of KMB’s growth.   Emerging markets have been giving KMB more than three times the growth than advanced economies have.  And the trend will continue.

It is easy to understand why.  For starters, it helps a lot to have much higher population growth.  Also, income growth is higher as the currencies appreciate, and people leave poverty to join the middle class at a much higher rate than in the advanced economies.

The expected rate of growth for next year in emerging markets will continue to accelerate and dwarf the rate of growth of the United States, Europe and Japan for years to come.

Growth rates in emerging economies are catching its self-sustaining levels, which should lead to further acceleration next year.  This has been my thesis since last October, when I called the turn on Brazil with my recommendation of the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE: EWZ), which has since doubled in value.

Then we have the issue of volatile commodity prices, which have led KMB to raise prices, hurting some demand.  KMB is taking further restructuring measures to address costs in short order.  This will improve profitability short term, and it will give the company a lasting competitive advantage.

What is critical for KMB’s success is their established brand leadership.  The company’s brand enjoys superior recognition and acceptance and creates sustainable competitive advantage in an industry that is little affected by economic mishaps.  This cements the defensive nature of our call.

Meanwhile, KMB’s price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio on estimated earnings is only about 11 times.  That makes the stock a gift for investors that could easily pay about 15 times for a name like this.  Adding to the allure of the value proposition is KMB’s generous dividend yield of more than 4%.  This dividend is supported by a mammoth cashflow that ensures that it is safe.  In fact, the dividend payout ratio is only 60%.

Rather than investing in U.S. Treasuries, why not own a stock of a company that will surely appreciate strongly over several years?

And there is yet another reason to buy KMB.  There is short interest that in this market is likely to get squeezed out of their positions.  By many measures, KMB is an attractive short-squeeze play.  Shorts typically increase their positions in defensive stocks in bullish markets in order to go long against highly cyclical stocks.  Now, close to year end, as we are right now, it is highly probable that they will be reversing their position in order to close their books for the year.

And for those lovers of technical analysis, this stock is a gem:

• Its 50-day exponential moving average crossed to the upside violently in mid-July and has been consolidating at these levels.
• The stock is sitting at the precise lower-end of the Bollinger bands.
• And, very importantly, it is way oversold by many key indicators.

So, this is a defensive stock that pays a generous 4.2% dividend yield, and enjoys an earnings surprise upside as it deals with headwinds.

Recommendation: Buy Kimberly Clark Corp. (NYSE: KMB) at market(**). I suggest you buy anywhere between one third to half of your position initially, and dollar cost average into a full position over the next four weeks.

(**) – Special Note of Disclosure: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in Kimberly Clark Corp.

Source: Kimberly Clark Corp. Offers a Strong Defensive Position and a Generous Dividend Yield

No, this rally had another factor pushing it: our friends in the Far East. The Chinese have been quite vocal with their concern over the US dollar and have increased their official gold reserve holdings by 75% in the spring. Smart move.

In the Weekend Edition’s Highlight of the Week, Bill Bonner looks closely at where the recent rise in gold prices puts our “Trade of the Decade.” Read on…

Gold took off [Wednesday]…closing at $1020. Here at The Daily Reckoning, we’re impressed. But we’re not that impressed. Gold, of course, is half of our Trade of the Decade, which we announced almost 10 years ago. We’re bullish on the metal…have been for a very long time. But recent comments in this space have made readers wonder what the Hell is going on…so we will spend a few minutes clarifying.

First, we hope you bought gold many years ago. That would make it simpler. Then, we could say: hold! Gold is an antidote to paper. There is so much paper…and so much more apparently on the way…that the gold play seems like a winner. It’s a bet that the money system that has been around since August ‘71 is going to fall apart.

We still think that is a good bet. Our Trade of the Decade remains. Buy gold on dips; sell stocks on rallies. We’ve done well with this trade; we’ll stick with it a bit longer.

But what if you don’t own gold? The yellow stuff is now over $1,000. In fact, it looks like $1,000 could be a new support level for the metal – with most of the support coming from the Chinese. China has relatively little gold in its central bank. It must see what we see – the weakness of the dollar and of the dollar-reserve monetary system. It must worry about the value of the $2 trillion or so it has in dollars. It must also wonder how it is going to run its economy if the dollar falls apart. American buyers were its consumers of first and last resort. To whom will China sell if its most important customers’ money becomes worthless?

Recent comments by a group of Chinese officials make it clear that they are thinking of these things…and that they have decided to add more gold to their reserves. In fact, all the central banks have become net buyers. No more selling off gold reserves. That is seen as a mug’s game – which it is. Replacing gold with paper? C’mon, what were they thinking?

So China is a buyer. Trouble is, it has to be a discreet buyer. It has too much money. It could cause the price to skyrocket overnight. Then, it would be paying too much. So, perhaps it does what we do – China buys on dips! For example, the order may have gone out: buy gold whenever the price goes below $1,000.

We don’t know what their buying strategy is…but the Chinese are probably going to be big buyers over the next few years.

Should you buy along with the Chinese? Should you compete with the Chinese for each ounce of gold that comes on the market?

Good question. Unfortunately, we don’t have a good answer. So let’s try a different question: Is gold going up or down?

The answer to that is simpler: gold is going up…then down…then up again. It is going up because the feds – including the feds in China – are encouraging speculation. Then, it is going down when the next phase of the bear market reasserts itself and the speculators run for cover. Then, it is going back up…much farther and faster…when the Fed becomes desperate and finally throw caution – and dollars – to the wind. We’re confident this last stage will arrive. Our hesitation is that it will take much longer than we expect. Gold may rise in a deflation…but it soars in a period of inflation. That period could be a long way off.

The above is just an excerpt from Bill’s standout essay from this week. You can read it in its entirety here.

Well, that does it for us…enjoy the rest of your weekend,

Kate Incontrera

Source: China Gets in on the Trade of the Decade

Brazil had clearly become the new “must-play” market for investors.

And then they had to go and spoil it all.

As promising a market as Brazil had become, it was the discovery of the massive Tupi oil field off of the country’s east coast – that really transformed Brazil into an investor’s dream. The oil and natural-gas reserves are located beneath heavy salt beds in deep offshore water. These reserves are 23,000 feet to 26,000 feet down, a depth that wasn’t even accessible until recently.

These Tupi reserves appear to contain at least 60 billion barrels of oil, worth $4 trillion at today’s prices. Tupi oil is expected to start hitting the market in 2011 or 2012. When that happens, it will revolutionize Brazil’s economy and its shift its balance of payments.

The exploration of the Tupi oil fields had been carried out by the Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE ADR: PBR) – more commonly referred to as Petrobras – in partnership with some of the international majors. The contracts call for the Brazilian government to receive royalties on any oil found.

Brazil is now one of only three top oil-producing countries to not assert state ownership of its oil reserves. Canada and the United States are the others.

This was very reassuring for the international oil majors. They’re used to dealing with fruitcake kleptocratic regimes in Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria and most of the Middle East. As a result, the Tupi deposits generated real excitement both among oil companies and among international investors in general. The feeling was that Brazil was about to end its two centuries of failed economic hopes. Fueled by oil revenue and additional economic activity, Brazil appeared ready to claim its true destiny as a wealthy country.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be.

Although there are several reasons for this, a key culprit is the election scheduled for next year. Incumbent Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva can’t run again. But he’d very much like to choose his successor. The most likely candidate: current Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff.

Rousseff was put in charge of devising a scheme to capture more of the Tupi oil revenues for the Brazilian government and, nominally, the Brazilian people. Tales were spun of how the new revenue would finally eliminate Brazilian inequality, and bring its poorest citizens up to Western living standards.

The new system announced this month reflects this aspiration. A new state oil company, Petrosal, would be created to manage the reserves. Petrobras – aided by outside investor capital – would carry out production. And Petrosal and the outside investors would share the output.

This plan will imbue Petrosal with a lot of power. The company would control half the votes on the operating consortium. And it would have veto rights over production and capital expenditures.

The revenue would be managed by a new state fund. The fund would devote this new cash to poverty relief, education and infrastructure.

In the meantime, the existing royalty system would remain in place. Under this system, outside investors would pay both royalties and a production share. In one acknowledgement of marketplace realities, concessions already granted would not be torn up.

There are two major problems with this system. First, it makes life much more difficult and less profitable for oil companies wanting to invest in the Tupi oil field. Had Brazil torn up existing contracts, I believe the oil majors would have left. In the past two years, the world’s Big Oil firms already saw existing agreements torn up in Nigeria and Venezuela. There’s just no point investing large amounts of money under such risky conditions.

As it is, the new Brazil agreement applies only to new contracts. So I believe the oil companies will probably put up with this new system – at least as long as oil prices remain high. It’s not as if these firms have a lot of alternatives right now.

However, given how expensive it will be to extract this oil, if market prices drop, it may end up being difficult to attract Big Oil players.

The more dangerous problem is this fund, which is little more than a huge pool of money that politicians can play with.

As I mentioned, Brazil’s economy has been one of the world’s best performers. This year, in the face of a worldwide recession, Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline only 1%, according to the forecasting panel of The Economist magazine.

Inflation is 5% and the budget deficit is only 2.8% of GDP – both excellent figures in this difficult year. Brazil’s monetary policy is an example to the world, with short-term interest rates still at 8.65%, well above the inflation rate.

But this money pool plan puts that performance at risk.

Brazilian public spending is already 35% of GDP, very high for such a poor country. State bureaucrats have feather-bedded contracts guaranteed to them under the 1988 constitution. So this “slush fund” will just fuel Brazilian corruption, diverting still more of that country’s economy into the pockets of politicians, their friends and favoured interest groups.

It’s no use for Brazilian spin-doctors to point out that Norway and Alaska have funds of this nature. Norway and Alaska have small populations and relatively un-corrupt political cultures. This fund must inevitably represent at least 3%-5% of Brazilian GDP. And it will be mostly wasted, spent without the market having any say as to its use or destination.

I’ve been watching Brazil for more than 30 years; since I began travelling there for the merchant bank Hill Samuel [now part of Lloyd's Banking Group PLC (NYSE ADR: LYG)] in the late 1970s. It’s a maddening country: Just when you think the Brazilian authorities have finally got their act together, and that the country is ready to achieve the enormous economic growth predicted for it since at least 1900, something unexpected and foolish goes wrong.

This appears to have happened again. And that’s a real pity – for Brazil’s citizens, and for global investors.

Source: The World’s Most Exciting Market – Until They Spoiled it

That’s if you believe a Nobel economist, of course. His crude “experiment” was the start of “modern portfolio theory” decades ago. The downside, however, was that with a reduction of risk came a dampening of profits. So scratch that idea.

How about this? A startling study in the late 1970s showed that owning a portfolio of large U.S. companies with international divisions drops your risk 10% below a domestic stock portfolio. Much better. But that wasn’t the eye-popper…

The study also found that owning stocks in international companies cuts your risk in half…

Take that, “efficiency” theorists! Yet the stuffy professors still tried to refute these results. It was a losing battle, though, as more studies emerged, laden with more evidence that international stocks reduce risk.

But the most startling thing? The studies indicate that adding international stocks to your domestic portfolio may even increase your average profits.

But how do you buy stocks in foreign companies trading in London, Hong Kong, or São Paulo? By investing in ADRs… let me explain.

How to Go Overseas Without Even Getting On a Plane

Let’s say you want to buy shares of an English company, trading on the FTSE-100 index. You’d have to convert your cash to pounds, buy the stock, wait to sell it at a profit, then convert it all back to U.S. dollars.

If the greenback weakened, you’d make a profit on the stock but lose on the conversion!

In a word: Ugh.

This is why the vast majority of investors buy a managed international mutual fund. This allows the “experts” to run overseas with your bag of cash and make the investments for you.

But is this really smart?

As early as the 1960s, some economists confirmed that fund managers can’t forecast stock prices well enough to cover their own expenses, let alone make you a profit. In the end, all economists – regardless of their background – agreed that the performance of a managed mutual fund is worse than throwing darts at a list.

Here’s a better way…

Investing in ADRs: Harness JP Morgan’s Secret Weapon

In 1927, a chain of retail stores wanted to list on the NYSE.

Problem was, all the stores were in England!

Even for JP Morgan (NYSE:JPM) – the greatest investment banker of all time – this one was tricky. But he came up with a solution: He bought a big block of the retailer’s shares on the London Stock Exchange and put them in a trust.

Then he sold shares of the trust on the NYSE. These shares were called American Depository Receipts – or ADRs for short.

The company was Selfridges. And with Americans able to invest in a well-managed foreign company with far less risk, the shares sold like hotcakes. And thanks in no small part to this early access to American money, Selfridges is renowned and still thriving today.

So if you want to toss darts around, you could randomly add 3-7 ADRs to your portfolio – a move that will cut your portfolio risk in half, while increasing your profits.

For example, you can go to www.adr.com and throw darts at companies like Holland’s Aegon NV (NYSE: AEG), China’s Acorn International Inc (NYSE: ATV), or Brazil’s Aracruz Celulose SA (NYSE: ARA).

But randomly picking foreign companies is pretty reckless. Here’s how to invest in international stocks properly…

The Four Advantages of Investing in ADRs

What if you knew which international companies were primed to explode in share price? That’s exactly the kind of profitable information that New Frontier Trader readers get all the time.

So here’s my four-point guide for selecting the best foreign ADRs and how they can roll back your risk, even as they ramp up your returns.

• ADR Advantage #1: International Markets Don’t Move Together:

One of the main advantages that ADRs offer is that stocks in two different countries don’t move together.

When you hit the ground in most foreign countries, it’s a whole new economic, political and cultural landscape.

So even if your U.S. stocks are going down, your ADRs might be rising. Take Argentina’s Banco Macro (NYSE: BMA), for example. You could have bought it on July 6 for $16.34. It’s currently trading around $22.85. That’s a 40% return in just two months.

The New Frontier Tip: Buy at least three different high potential ADR stocks, operating in at least three different international countries.

• ADR Advantage #2: Hardship Breeds Managerial Excellence:

Okay, so what about countries that are chaotic – either economically, politically, or in terms of corruption? Places where managers tread in fear day by day.

Check out Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index. It’s a good measure of social disarray. The United States has a relatively low corruption score of 18, while Somalia has the highest at 180.

Managers become slothful when business is easy. But imagine trying to do honest trade in a pirate haven like Somalia?!

And how about the BRIC economies – Brazil, Russia, India, and China? The corruption score is 96. In fact, Russia alone scores a whopping 147 on the global “Dewey, Cheatem & Howe” scale. Not even Superman’s x-ray vision would help an economist’s macro analysis.

But intense social disarray breeds the toughest managers, and the companies that rise to the top, despite the chaos, are often the pick of the bunch.

One such firm is Ecopetrol (NYSE: EC). It’s the largest integrated oil company in Colombia. You could have bought it on May 18 for $19.31 per share. By Labor Day weekend, it was trading at $26.41 for a tidy return of 37%!

The New Frontier Tip: Look for outstanding management where Wall Street doesn’t expect to find any.

• ADR Advantage #3: Muddy Waters Hide Big Fish:

Studies have proven that Wall Street analysts are incapable of honestly reporting opportunities in their home market. And they’re even more misleading if you try to follow them overseas.

The analyst’s real job is directing traffic where Wall Street’s CEOs and their boards want order flow to go. If executives need to cash out their options, the analyst’s opinion is suddenly upgraded to a green light.

Frankly, Wall Street doesn’t make a dime helping you find a potential fortune in developing countries.

But there are a few outstanding individuals like Warren Buffett, who are skilled at spotting hidden jewels. So you could just buy Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.B).

But we have a better way: Go direct!

Take China, for instance. Getting solid information from this murky, mass-demand economy is like pulling teeth from a shark!

But if you had the edge, you could have bought shares in the massive Chinese Holiday Inn, with more than 500 budget hotels in more than 90 Chinese cities. Had you bought Home Inns & Hotel Management (Nasdaq: HMIN) at $15.19 on May 12, you’d be sitting on an 88.1% gain in just four months.

The New Frontier Tip: Target markets that Wall Street doesn’t want you to understand.

• ADR Advantage #4: Hunt Down Profits That American Conglomerates Can’t Touch:

Foreign companies located in faraway lands that rise to the top of their regional markets are special. By the time the world’s biggest investment banks invite them to become an ADR, they’re pumping out profits like one of J. Paul Getty’s oil rigs.

South America has hidden Copa Airlines (NYSE: CPA) from American investors until just recently. You could have bought the stock for $32.22 on May 27. Today, it’s trading for $43 – a fast return of 33.4%. In addition, the firm’s operating margin is 20.3%. Compare that to margins at Southwest (2.1%), Jet Blue (6.5%), or American (-3.4%).

The Single Best Way for Investing in ADRs…

Each of the returns I’ve mentioned above were recommendations in Alex Green’s New Frontier Trader newsletter. This service gives you an edge over the crowd in grabbing the best gains from investing in ADRs.

And the rest of the track record speaks for itself. This year, the service has closed out nine double-digit winners on international stock positions and six triple-digit winners by playing foreign stock options.

Time after time, history has shown that the best way to combine reduced risk with explosive returns is to invest in overseas markets, where Wall Street doesn’t want you to look.

If you’d like to start enjoying the kind of profits that the New Frontier Trader has kicked out to subscribers, simply check out this report.

It all starts with education,

Dr. Scott Brown

Source: Investing in ADRs: The Most Powerful Way to Reduce Market Risk