A quick glance at the scoreboard proves my criticism was spot-on…

While the S&P 500 Index slumped 38.5% in 2008, 30 countries witnessed drops of 50% or more. Even more telling, the poster children for the decoupling trade: Brazil (-41.2%), Russia (-72.4%), India (-52.45%) and China (-65.39%) didn’t escape punishment either, despite wild predictions they would…

Clearly, the old adage still applies, “When the United States sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold.” (Or in some cases, like Russia, they get pneumonia.)

So why resurrect the past? Because decoupling diehards won’t let this junk science die. And sadly, another warning is in order…

Decoupling 2.0 – Redefining The Theory

On the back of an impressive rebound in emerging markets this year, the decoupling chatter is back. Only this time, followers are calling it “Decoupling 2.0.” And they’ve redefined their theory…

As The Economist reveals, “Decoupling 2.0 is a narrower phenomenon, confined to a few of the biggest, and least indebted, emerging economies.” Ones with “strong domestic markets and prudent macroeconomic policies.”

Funny. I read that “redefinition” and think how badly some pundits want decoupling to work out.

It’s still the same farce, however.

• You see, globalization – an undeniable, decades-old, economic force – created one quantum entanglement.
• World markets are inextricably tied together in knots, whether we want them to be or not.
• And if they can ever be untangled, it will take years (likely decades), not a few quarters.

So, as the Decoupling 2.0 banter picks up, let me offer up a dissenting voice – and warn you.

First, don’t be mislead by the headlines…

• Yes, Chinese stocks are up 44.6% in 2009.
• Yes, Brazil rebounded 39.7%.
• Yes, India staged a 51.6% comeback.
• Yes, Russia came roaring back 72.1%.
• And yes, the United States only mustered a pathetic 0.22% gain.
• But nothing’s really changed.

The United States remains the engine of economic growth. How else do you explain the fact that the equity markets continue to move in lockstep?

As you can see in the chart below, some of the BRIC nations started to rebound sooner, but they sold off in February, just like the United States. And they didn’t really gain momentum until after signs that the U.S. economy would fight another day materialized.

Chart Source: Bespoke Investment Group

Decoupling Advocates: Countering The Obvious With Nonsense…

Decoupling adherents will counter this evidence, saying the equity markets might still be coupled, but the underlying economies most certainly are not. Nonsense.

If an economy is doing well that means businesses are doing well. And if businesses are doing well – and most are publicly traded – stock markets will be doing well. You can’t separate the two.

That leads me to the second part of my warning. Whatever you do, don’t abandon your U.S. investments or significantly overweight your portfolios to these “decoupled” international markets.

If you did so the last time, your portfolio got hammered. In fact, if you moved all your investments into China or Russia at the start of 2008, like some investors I know, you’re still worse off than the patriotic fellow that invested in nothing but U.S. stocks.

A hypothetical $100,000 portfolio of U.S. stocks is now worth $61,655, compared to $50,046 had you held all China stocks, and $47,500 had you had nothing but exposure to Russian stocks.

While Decoupling May Be A Farce – Don’t Ignore Emerging Markets

Let me be clear, although decoupling is a farce, that doesn’t mean we should ignore international and emerging markets altogether. That would be foolish. These markets lay claim to stronger domestic growth and more options (higher interest rates and billions in foreign reserves) to stimulate further growth.

What I am recommending, instead, is that you capitalize on these strengths in a more intelligent manner. Instead of going “all-in” so to speak, place a more reasonable wager. Specifically, stick to the tried principles of asset allocation. After all, the theory behind it won a Nobel Prize. Meanwhile, Decoupling 2.0 isn’t even legitimate enough to garner a nomination.

So instead of plowing all your money into international stocks, only allocate a portion. At The Oxford Club we recommend a 30% allocation to international stocks. That’s just the right amount of exposure to profit, without taking unnecessary risk.

In terms of specific investments, I recommend the low-cost, no-hassle, diversified, indexing approach.

• Either the iShares MSCI EAFE Index (AMEX: EFA), which holds positions in 838 companies.
• Or the iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (AMEX: EEM), which holds positions in 340 companies.
• If you want a more concentrated, high profit potential pick, hire a professional. Specifically Mark Mobius and the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE: EMF). No one can touch his 40-year track record in emerging markets, even recently. Since the March 9 bottom, his closed-end fund is up 65%.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Source: Decoupling Is Still Dead And Here’s The Proof

This

I’ll be the first to concede the going’s tough. That almost every “time-tested” strategy that worked well in bull markets is sputtering and collapsing.

But is it so bad we’ve given up on turning a profit? And just resigned ourselves to preserving our principal, right?

WRONG.

This week the Treasury sold $32 billion in 4-week bills at a yield of ZERO percent.

That’s not a typo. Investors actually clamored for the opportunity to lend the government their money in return for absolutely no return. In fact, investors bid $126 billion at the auction, more than four times the amount available.

As Michael Franzese, the head of government bond trading at Standard Chartered explains, “I have never seen this before… It’s all about capital preservation for the turn of the year, not capital appreciation.”

Forget unbelievable. It’s idiotic. What investors are essentially saying is that absolutely no better opportunity exists in the market right now – that survival is their paramount goal of investing, not profiting. But ignore what the lemmings are doing. Their folly is creating endless (and historic) opportunities for us to increase our wealth. Of course, simply telling you that will not suffice…

6 Market Investment Opportunities Right Now

Let me share with you a short-list of market investment opportunities I’m researching and taking advantage of on a daily basis. If nothing else, it should make you think twice before you follow the $32 billion worth of stupid money…

• International Stocks: Forget decoupling. It was a farce. The United States caught a cold… and international markets caught pneumonia. The offshoot? International markets are the cheapest on the planet – despite much stronger growth prospects than in the United States. For instance, the average Russian stock trades for just three times earnings! South Africa and Brazil are the next cheapest at six and seven times, respectively. An easy way to capture upside here is to rebalance your portfolio by adding money to your diversified international funds or investments. One of my favorite options here is the Templeton Emerging Markets Fund (NYSE:EMF), run by the best international manager around, Mark Mobius.
• “Free” Stocks: Hundreds of stocks trade below their cash balances, making them essentially free. Some will of course, burn through that cash faster than my wife on a shopping spree. So we can’t buy blindly. But that’s not the case for all of these stocks. One compelling opportunity I recently presented to my subscribers is Immersion Corp. (Nasdaq:IMMR) – a leader in haptic technology. Forget cash on hand, its patent portfolio is worth more than the current stock price.
• Income: Dividend yields rest at 15-year highs. Of course, not all dividend-paying stocks are created equal. Many will slash or suspend payments just to survive the downturn. But others won’t. The master limited partnership (MLP) space is rife with opportunity. Investors seem to forget these companies aren’t impacted by the price of oil and gas. They just get paid to transport it. The price of oil might be off 70%, but demand is not. My favorite play here is Kinder Morgan Energy (NYSE:KMP). It just increased its dividend and currently offers investors an attractive 8.7% yield.
• Munis: We all know there are NO guarantees in investing. But I can guarantee taxes are going up. How else will the government fund the billions upon billions in new spending? Especially, at a time when tax receipts will plummet. Thanks to a drop in corporate profits and the loss of 1.2 million taxpayers to unemployment. No surprise, the herd is piling out of munis ($7.4 billion so far this quarter) at exactly the wrong time. Their folly is creating attractive tax-free income yields and upside for us. For instance, the Vanguard Intermediate Tax Exempt Fund (VWITX) currently sports a 4.25% yield. That’s tax free and equivalent to earning 6.5% (based on a 35% tax bracket).
• Real Estate: Pricing remains completely irrational for real estate investment trusts (REITs). Some closed-end funds are off as much as 90%. Dirt is cheap – but it isn’t that cheap. This is a once-in-a-lifetime rebound opportunity. If nothing else, capitalize on the unstoppable trend of homeowners converting into renters by considering an apartment like Equity Residential Properties (NYSE:EQR).
• Short selling: An economic recovery won’t save every company. Plenty will remain in the tank, or worse, end up on the courthouse steps. Yet, most investors overlook the simple strategy to profit from these collapses – selling short. But they shouldn’t. In these markets it’s one of the few strategies consistently booking winners. That’s why I’ve been using it for my subscribers. Just last week, we booked a 50% winner in The New York Times Company (NYSE:NYT), for example.

Remember this is just my short-list. The key takeaway is simple – investment opportunities abound.

Granted, we might have to work harder than normal to unearth them. But we certainly don’t have to resign ourselves to handing over our hard earned capital to the government for nothing in return. After all, that privilege is reserved for our tax dollars.

Source: 32 Billion Reasons The Average Investor Will Fail