Fortunately for us, the report wasn’t as bad as expected. However, the job losses are still significant and still approaching historical levels.

Before I get to the historical aspects of the job losses, there’s something else to consider when looking at the job losses: where the losses are occurring.

The losses aren’t simply blue-collar workers. They are also white-collar. And the hard part for many of the individuals who have lost their jobs recently is that their jobs may never come back. So it isn’t a matter of waiting around until a new job opens up when the economy turns around. The jobs will simply never be there again. For example, last month the economy lost approximately 149,000 jobs in the manufacturing sector. Many of the plants that closed will never open again. The same goes for some of the 110,000 construction jobs that were lost last month. Even white-collar employees are facing grim prospects. Last month, professional and business services lost 122,000 jobs. Whether the company went out of business, consolidated with another one, or simply trimmed ranks, these jobs are gone for a long time, perhaps forever.

Adding to the problem, many of these workers are not easily transitioned to ‘burgeoning’ job fields. For example, an autoworker who has worked for years in plants can’t simply transition over to the healthcare sector to find employment. They need time to take classes, learn, and become proficient in their new fields. Never mind older workers who have no desire to switch jobs at such a late stage in their careers.

So how historically bad have the job losses been? It depends on the comparison.

In terms of the shear number of jobs lost, the last 16 months have been staggering. We have doubled the previous number of jobs lost in consecutive months.

However, there are simply more workers today than ever before, so for an ‘apples to apples’ comparison, let’s look at the number of jobs lost in relation to workers. To do this, I pulled up the historical data, and looked at the number of workers the month before the losses started. For example, the number of non-farm workers in November 2007 was just over 139 million. The number of jobs lost so far is 5.73 million, so the economy has shed nearly 4.13% of the workforce during the last 16 months. As you can see, we are nearly identical to the percentage of jobs lost during the 1957-1958 time period. We would only need to lose 30,500 jobs in May to eclipse the 1957-1958 period, and become the worst percentage loss ever. Unfortunately, it would take a miracle for that not to happen.

So how do the huge monthly losses we have seen stack up? Surprisingly, not too bad. To determine this number, I took the number of jobs lost and compared that to the previous months payroll figures. For example, in April, the economy lost 539,000 jobs out of the roughly 132 million jobs that were on the payrolls in March. That’s 0.55% of the jobs that were available the month before. Historically, despite the huge numbers of jobs lost recently, only January ranks in the top 10 in terms of overall percentages.

Hopefully this gives you a good frame of reference to compare the mounting job losses we are seeing right now. In terms of shear numbers and percentages we are looking at the worst or almost the worst period in history. There have been much worse monthly losses, but not extended periods.

Another record we will set very soon is the number of consecutive months of jobs lost. We currently stand at 16 months, one shy of the record. It will take divine intervention to not set the record in June.

Source: A Look At The Recent Employment Figures And How They Match Up Against Other Recessions

Needless to say, when the number of jobs lost every month is in excess of 600k, we aren’t going to see an abrupt stop. We will unfortunately set the record for consecutive months of job losses in the next few months.

Monday

Economic Reports: Pending Home Sales

The Pending Home Sales report for March comes out this morning at 10:00 am, and I am a little surprised by the expectations (flat). With all the foreclosures continuing, and prices still sliding, I think this report will show a modest increase in Pending Home Sales.

Earnings Announcements: S

Tuesday

Economic Reports: ISM Services

This could be another month of contraction in the services sector if expectations are accurate. One thing to note when the report is released is if any sectors are expanding versus contracting. Last month the only sector to display expansion was in real estate rental and leasing. In any event, until more sectors are expanding than contracting the economy will continue to languish.

Earnings Announcements: KFT, UBS

Wednesday

Earnings Announcements: CSCO

Thursday

Earnings Announcements: GM, VRSN

Friday

Economic Reports: Non-Farm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate

Earnings Announcements: TM

Source:Employment Numbers Are About To Get Historically Bad

Employment will make or break this depression. Today, it’s not looking so good. 12.5 million Americans are out of work, and counting. Here’s the quick and dirty on the rest of the employment numbers this morning:

• The economy shed 651,000 jobs in February, right in line with Wall Street’s expectations. That’s the 14th month in a row of net job losses
• January and December jobs losses were revised down heavily. January was bumped down another 57,000 jobs, to a 655,000 loss. And the BLS altered Decembers by more than 100,000, to a 59-year high of 681,000 lost jobs. (Proof that these guys either put the numbers wherever they want, or that they aren’t very good at keeping track)
• Thus, over 4.4 million jobs have been lost since the official beginning of the downturn in late 2007.

The “official” unemployment rate is up to 8.1%, thanks to those revisions — a 25-year high. And you know that if the government is willing to cop to that number… it’s really much worse.

At the same time, over 7.8% of all U.S. mortgages are now delinquent, the Mortgage Bankers Association reports today. That’s the highest since at least 1972, when the MBA started keeping track. 3.3% of U.S. mortgages are in foreclosure, also a record.

The stock market is taking the news in stride… so far. Dow futures perked up about 50 points after the jobs number, and managed to open this morning up by nearly the same amount.

Then again, traders might just be taking a break from relentless selling. Major indexes were slammed yesterday. Most fell over 4%. There was the usual gloom, but traders got particularly depressed after China failed to go the way of I.O.U.S.A. and pump an extra trillion bucks into its struggling economy.

“The whole world now turns its weary eyes,” recounts Bill Bonner, “not to that bastion of free-market leadership, the United States of America, but to a country that has only had a quasi-free market in goods and services for less than a quarter century… a country still run by Maoists. It is to them that we supposedly look to save the world economy!”

The Dow’s 4% yesterday brings this year’s losses to 25%, just a bear’s hot breath away from the 33% slump the Dow suffered through all of 2008. The old lady finished closed the day at 6,594, a fresh 12-year low… and right in line with our initial forecast.

From its peak, that’s a 53% decline. As much as the media have worn out the phrase “The worst since the Great Depression” now it’s true:

Even before yesterday’s close, we were looking at the worst 41-day open in over 100 years.

In the Dow’s history, the closest to our own downer year was 1920, which registered a 14% decline. We’re in uncharted territory.

“In 1933,” Chris Mayer comments, “the Dow finished up 66% for the year! With all the similarities between now and the 1930s, let’s hope we see that kind of rally. It would be our last chance to sell down to some core positions that we’d be willing to hang onto through the march through the desert — should we follow form with the rest of the 1930s with a Great Depression 2.0.”

SPECIAL ANNOUNCEMENT: As you can see, we’ve been digging deep looking for what’s worked in other eras. Mr. Mayer does such a fine job with that kind of key research, we’re gearing up to launch a brand-new weekly service with him at the helm. It’s tentatively called the Crisis Recovery Report and yes, we’re thinking about sending it out… free… for as long as this unraveling crisis demands. That is, until we’ve reached the other side of this mess — if there is indeed another side.

We’ll let you know the details as they come. We haven’t even set up an official web presence for the report yet… but if you want to get on the early list for the announcement, send your request to: crisisrecovery@gmail.com

There’s was only one new high on the entire NYSE today: Sturm, Ruger… they make guns. The stock is up 71% so far this year and is at a 52-week high. Smith & Wesson is up 75% this year, too.

As confidence left the market yesterday, traders turned to gold. The spot price jumped about $30 from Thursday’s low, now at around $940 an ounce.

Oil managed to avoid the madness yesterday, too. The front-month contract took a brief dive during the session, but quickly returned to credit crisis highs just below $45 a barrel.

Even the mighty dollar couldn’t withstand the swell of selling pressure yesterday. After hitting three-year highs of nearly 90 this week, the dollar index has backed down to 88.3.

“A strange thing is happening in the currencies,” notes Chuck Butler. “While currency investors have had to live with this trading theme that rewards the dollar with every deep, dark, dangerous data report, this time it appears to be different. The dollar is getting sold on all corners overnight… traders looked at the size of the forecast for job losses and ran for the hills.

“The euro is leading the way higher, with a huge gain overnight… As I walked out the door yesterday afternoon, the euro was barely holding onto the 1.25 handle… When I woke up this morning with a wine glass in my hand — what wine, whose wine, where the hell did I dine? The euro was 1.2675! And we all know what happens when the BIG DOG gets off the porch to chase the dollar down the street… all the little dogs get to chase the dollar too!

“And Japanese yen was one of the best performers, which tells me that the risk takers were back!

“So… Is this a change in the trading theme? Well, one overnight rally doesn’t lend itself to a convincing argument of such. But it certainly points out that the dollar is vulnerable at the margins, and once we get back to fundamentals… watch out!”

In Washington, a whole new $500 billion legislation is in the works. Congresspeople are pushing through legislation this week that would allow the FDIC to borrow up to $500 from Uncle Sam’s coffer over the next two years. The FDIC’s war chest to rescue failed banks shrank from $52 billion to $19 billion in 2008. Chairwoman Sheila Bair recently said that fund “could become insolvent this year.” Thus — naturally — the House is moving to increase the FDIC’s fund more than 10-fold.

“Within six years,” Chris Mayer also writes, ending today’s issue with a megatrend worth your attention, “New York will no longer be among the world’s five largest cities. The new top five? Tokyo is No. 1, with a population (35 million) greater than all of Canada. Then follows Mumbai, Sao Paulo, Delhi… and Dhaka. Dhaka? Yes, Dhaka. It’s the capital of Bangladesh.

“‘All cities are cities of the moment,’ says Richard Wurman, the celebrated American architect. He is right. No city stays on top for long. In the year 1000, the most populous city in the world was Cordova, Spain. Beijing was tops in 1500 and 1800. London was the biggest in 1900, New York the biggest in 1950. Today, Tokyo.

“The pace of urbanization is particularly swift in China and India. More than 25 million people move to cities each year (see the chart below).

“Some of the numbers are hard to fathom. As U.S. Global Investors points out in a recent presentation, China will add more people in 15 years than the entire population of the United States. ‘There will be up to 50,000 new skyscrapers,’ the company notes, ‘the equivalent of building 10 New Yorks. There could be up to 170 new mass transit systems. There are only about 70 in Europe today.’

“This massive population shift has enormous effects on infrastructure spending. Trillions of dollars will have to go toward building power systems, roads, water and wastewater systems, ports and more. It’s like what the U.S. went through in the early 20th century — only on a much more massive scale… these changes will create enormous opportunities for investors that a previous generation could barely imagine.”

“Are you really as simple-minded as your slanted editorializing infers?” asks a reader. “In slamming Sen. Harry Reid for his opposition to the nuclear waste dump at Yucca Mountain and suggesting he’s only interested in spending ‘trillions’ for energy independence, you overlook the most basic requirement for gaining, then retaining, elected office: Make your constituents’ best interests your own. As a citizen of Nevada, specifically Summerlin, I can assure you that most of us who live within 100 miles of Yucca Mountain have made it crystal clear to the senator that we oppose this location as a depository for the nation’s nuclear waste.”

“Personally, I would favor a location about halfway between Baltimore and D.C. Would that be all right with you? We could save those trillions you believe the Democrats want to spend on ‘energy independence.’ (I assume you put the term in quotes so readers would understand that you sneer at the very concept of such self-reliance.)

“Your condescending right-wing babbling may find a ready audience among many readers of The 5, but certainly not all. I wouldn’t find your bias so objectionable if you had even a modicum of Bill Bonner’s charm and wit. Alas, if you haven’t found a way to express yourself as winningly as Mr. Bonner does by this point in your career, I’m certain it will never happen.

“Oh, by the way, I’m sure you find Sen. John Ensign — the current holder of the most conservative voting record in Congress — much more to your liking. Surely, he must get how important it is to dump the country’s radioactive waste on a deserted place like Nevada.

“Sorry to be the one to shatter your dream — Ensign can also read a poll, apparently. He, too, is opposed to opening Yucca Mountain to the nation’s nuclear poison. Heh.”

The 5: Wow… we give in. You caught us.

You did a masterful job at seeing right through our attempt to inform you about a coming investment opportunity in thorium and related companies. Alas, it was just a thinly veiled shot at Sen. Reid and the truly ridiculous concept of “energy independence.” Why on Earth would we want to be self-reliant? In fact, the only purpose of The 5 — hell, all of Agora Financial — is to undermine confidence in legislation, prop up foreign oil companies and promote right-wing agendas.

Phew, it feels great to get that of our chests. What a heavy burden it’s been… all these years. We had to write three books and make a full-length documentary on what a disaster Republican control of Congress and the White House was just to provide adequate cover. But now… you’ve exposed us. We thank you…we can finally end this ridiculous charade. Bring back the neocons! Get Rush on the phone!

We love your idea, by the way, about dumping nuclear refuse between Baltimore and DC. A little toxic waste would actually improve the place.

The national debt might hit the $11 trillion mark over the weekend. Hope you can still enjoy it.

Source:Jobs Rundown, Market Records, Coming Megatrend, a Special Announcement and More!