U.S. crude for October delivery fell $1.39 to $68.57 a barrel by 1:32 p.m. EDT (1732 GMT).

London Brent crude dropped $1.38 to $68.27.

U.S. stocks dropped as investors’ confidence in the economic recovery wavered.

“The dollar is strengthening and equities are coming off hard so (oil futures) did the same,” said Tom Knight, trader at Truman Arnold in Texarkana, Texas.

Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar rose as the slide in the U.S. stocks boosted the currency’s safe-haven appeal.

Oil futures had risen earlier in the day as the market focused on a report showing a jump in U.S. manufacturing and pending home sales.

“It looks like the whole complex is failing to sustain the gains … basically, the market’s not done yet on the downside,” said Tom Bentz, senior commodity analyst, BNP Paribas Commodity Futures Inc in New York.

Oil has risen from a low of $32.40 in December, helped by economic recovery optimism that lifted global stocks <.MIWD00000PUS> to 10-month highs last month.

U.S. DATA

Oil traders will look for fresh direction from U.S. weekly crude stockpiles data.

Analysts expect the data to show a 600,000-barrel fall in U.S. crude stocks following an increase in refinery utilization, a preliminary Reuters poll of analysts showed.

The American Petroleum Institute (API) will release its weekly inventory report at 4:30 p.m. EDT (2030 GMT) on Tuesday. The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) will release its data on Wednesday at 10:30 a.m. EDT.

Adding to already high inventories, OPEC has reduced its compliance with agreed production curbs, a Reuters survey on Tuesday found.

OPEC supply in August rose for a fourth consecutive month as Saudi Arabia, Nigeria and Venezuela increased their production, taking overall output discipline to 68 percent from a revised 70 percent in July.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries meets on Sept. 9 in Vienna to reconsider its output policy.

Sept 1 (Reuters)

Oil prices had surged nearly 9 percent in the previous session due to a surprise drop in U.S. crude stocks, which may indicate a recovery in demand in the top energy consumer.

But data showing euro zone gross domestic product (GDP) fell by a record 1.5 percent in the last quarter of 2008, as exports and household demand collapsed, forced traders to refocus on falling global consumption.

“The economic outlook is still pretty grim and I don’t think these bits of bullish data are enough to counteract this in the short-term,” Christopher Bellew at Bache Commodities said.

U.S. crude slipped $1.51 to $43.87 a barrel by 1224 GMT, after earlier hitting a month high of $45.70, while London Brent crude fell $1.63 to $44.49.

Oil prices gained some support from remarks by China’s Premier Wen Jiabao on Thursday that the No. 2 oil consumer would achieve 8 percent growth this year — a level considered key to maintain employment growth — despite the deepening global recession.

China’s gauge of the health of its manufacturing sector, the purchasing managers’ index (PMI), gained for the third month in a row in February, suggesting the domestic economy, and oil demand, could be recovering.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration said crude stocks declined by 700,000 barrels last week, while gasoline demand rose 2.2 percent from a year ago, as lower prices boosted consumption.

Traders were also eyeing the release of a raft of economic data in the U.S., including jobless benefit claims and January factory orders, for clues on the health of the world’s largest economy.

TO CUT OR NOT TO CUT?

Oil prices have traded in a narrow band near $40 since mid-December, caught between slumping demand and the possibilty of further OPEC output cuts when the group meets on March 15.

“The market is still rangebound as any bullish news has been kept in check by the global economic meltdown,” Bank of Ireland analyst Paul Harris said.

“But the next OPEC meeting is coming into focus, and they will probably have to act to convince the market they are really serious about continuing to restrict production.”

OPEC planned to lower oil output by 4.2 million barrels per day from production levels in September, in a bid to boost falling prices, and a Reuters survey found OPEC members had already met at least 81 percent of their target.

Angola, which currently holds the presidency of the 12-member group, will not advocate further production cuts when the group meets on March 15 in Vienna, OPEC sources said on Wednesday.

But Venezuela, Algeria and Libya have raised the possibility of a further cut.

March 5 (Reuters)

• The world’s biggest nuclear utility company, Electricité de France SA will offer as much as $6.5 billion for assets of Constellation Energy Group, Inc (CEG), source familiar with the matter told The Wall Street Journal. A previous offer by EDF was turned down, with Constellation opting for a $4.7 billion bid from Warren Buffett’s MidAmerican unit of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (BRK.A,BRK.B).

• Research In Motion Ltd.’s (RIMM) third-quarter subscriptions and profit fell short of forecasts, as it simultaneously faces increased competition and recession in its largest market. Profit for the Blackberry maker rose no more than 83 cents a share in the quarter ended Nov. 29, well short of its goal of 97 cents, Bloomberg reported.

• Legg Mason fund manager Bill Miller said yesterday (Wednesday) that the “bottom has been made” in U.S. equities and that the Federal Reserve should purchase stocks and junk bonds to pull the United States out of the financial crisis Reuters reported. Miller said that all long-term investors believe that stocks today are cheap after acknowledging that his funds “performed far worse than I would’ve predicted we would” this year.

• Online retail spending rose 15% on “Cyber Monday,” the Monday immediately after Thanksgiving, from a year earlier, according to tracking firm comScore Inc. Consumers spent $846 million shopping online Monday, comScore said.

• Declining imports led to a surprise drop in U.S. crude oil stocks last week, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) said yesterday (Wednesday). Supplies of crude oil fell by 400,000 barrels to 320.4 million barrels in the week to November 28. Crude imports fell 1.46 million barrels per day (bpd), the IEA said.

• New Zealand’s central bank yesterday (Wednesday) cut its key interest rate by 1.5 percentage points to 5%, hoping to break the worst recession its faced in nearly two decades, Bloomberg reported. “Today’s decision takes monetary policy to an expansionary position,” Reserve Bank Governor Alan Bollard said in a statement in Wellington today. “Policy is working together with the depreciation of the New Zealand dollar and fiscal stimulus to create the conditions for some rebound in growth.”

Source: Global Investing Roundups Thursday, December 4th, 2008

“The stock market has firmed up, which is giving the energy market some strength,” said Phil Flynn, of Alaron Trading. “It’s clear that an awful lot of bearish news has already been priced in.”

The Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report, delayed a day by the Veteran’s Day holiday, did little to move the market. Crude stocks were near-flat, rising by only 22,000 barrels, far below the forecast for a 1 million barrel gain.

But gasoline supplies rose by 2 million barrels, more than double the 850,000 barrel estimate.

The Organization of Arab Petroleum Exporting Countries, a subset of OPEC, is scheduled to meet in Cairo on November 29. However, non-Arab members of the cartel, such as Venezuela, Iran and Angola, will be invited to take part in talks about the oil market afterwards, OPEC President Chakib Khelil said.

And Brazil’s Petrobras has thrown open the newly-discovered fields off its coast to foreign Big Oil companies. Chevron and Shell expect to begin pumping in 2010, while Exxon, Mobil, Hess and Devon are engaged in exploration. It’s estimated that 50-70 billion barrels of oil could lie beneath Brazilian waters

Source: Crude Edges Higher, Brazil Welcomes Big Oil

“The move in oil prices reflect an overly optimist[ic] view that rate cuts will spur increased economic demand for oil,” wrote Mark T. Williams, of Boston University, a former Fed examiner. “Unfortunately, if the looming global recession happens, further rate cuts will be needed to prop up the economy and oil.”

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said that crude stocks were up a half-million barrels for the week ending October 24. Gasoline supplies surprised by unexpected falling for the first time in five weeks, down 1.5 million barrels.

Rounding out the data, distillates were up 2.3 million barrels, and refineries were operating at 85.3% of capacity, vs. 84.8% a week earlier.

Source: Oil races higher -  Cut seen as possible spur to economy

* Oil prices rallied off a 17-month low yesterday (Wednesday), soaring $5.12, or 8.16% to settle at $67.85 a barrel. Earlier in the day, crude jumped 9% to a session high $68.91 a barrel. Part of the reason for the oil’s rebound was the Energy Information Administration’s weekly report, which showed inventories rose 500,000 barrels last week, less than many analysts expected. Oil prices have fallen by 55% since peaking at $147 a barrel in mid-July.

* Hungary yesterday (Wednesday) secured a $25 billion aid package from the International Monetary Fund, the European Union and the World Bank, The Associated Press reported. According to the terms of the deal The IMF will provide a 17-month standby loan of $15.7 billion, the European Union will make $8.1 billion available, and World Bank will give $1.3 billion in an effort to keep Hungary’s economy from collapsing under the weight of the global financial crisis.

* Procter & Gamble Co. (PG) yesterday (Wednesday) announced a 9% increase in its fiscal first quarter sales. Net income rose to $3.3 billion, or $1.03 per share, up from $3.1 billion, or 92 cents a share, a year earlier, after double digit growth in emerging markets boosted total revenue to $22 billion.

* Qwest Communications International Inc. (Q) yesterday (Wednesday) that it would cut 1,200 jobs or 3% of its work force after third-quarter revenue fell 2% to $3.38 billion. The cuts will come before the end of the year and leave the company with 33,500 employees. Qwest earned $151 million, or 9 cents per share, in the quarter, down 93% from $2.06 billion, or $1.08 per share, a year ago. Though, the 2007 results were bolstered by a $2.1 billion tax benefit.

* The merger between Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL) and Northwest Airlines Corp. (NWA) received antitrust clearance yesterday (Wednesday) from the U.S. Department of Justice. The approval paves the way for the merger, which will create the largest airline based on traffic, The Wall Street Journal reported.

* Average airfare for U.S. domestic flights increased 8.1% in the second quarter, the Bureau of Transportation Statistics announced yesterday (Wednesday). The average fare price of $352 is the highest in the 13-years the agency has been tracking the data, surpassing the previous record of $348 set in the first quarter of 2001, Bloomberg News reported.

* Shares of Comcast Corp. (CMCSA) slumped almost 9% yesterday (Wednesday) as the company announced it lost 147,000 cable subscribers in the third quarter due to weak economic conditions, Reuters reported. Comcast shares lost $1.68 each to close at $15.28.

* Shares of biotech firm Biogen Idec Inc. (BIIB) plunged more than 11% in after hours trading yesterday (Wednesday) after the company announced a participant in a drug trial for its multiple sclerosis drug Tysabri had been diagnosed with a life-threatening brain illness. The patient had received 14 infusions of the MS drug and was diagnosed with progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy, or PML, Biogen said today in a regulatory filing, Bloomberg News reported.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Thursday, October 30th, 2008

Supplies fell further than expected, with a 4.56 million decline to 302.2 million barrels last week, the U.S. Energy Information Administration announced. At the same time, refineries operated at just 88.6% capacity, a decline of 1.1% from the week prior. Most analysts had expected a mean capacity increase of 0.3%, according to a
Bloomberg News survey.

“This move was sparked by the very bullish crude inventory number,” Daniel Flynn, a broker with Alaron Trading Corp. in Chicago, told Bloomberg. “Falling inventories make us vulnerable to disruptions. The cheap dollar is only adding fuel to the fire.”

The high cost of oil is dampening demand of already overstretched U.S. consumers. U.S. demand declined 1.3% in the four week ended June 6, the energy department said.

However, demand is rapidly increasing in emerging markets such as China, where oil imports shot up 25% last month from the same period a year ago. Imports to the Asian nation increased to 16.2 million metric tons in May, which is about 3.8 million barrels a day, the Beijing-based Customs General Administration of China announced on its Web site yesterday.

“The big crude draw is obviously bullish, but more importantly for the oil markets, the dollar is falling and that could send us back to near $140 a barrel,” Mark Waggoner, president of Excel Futures in Huntington Beach, Calif., told Reuters.

Other factors contributed to the price jump, as well. Nigeria continues to experience production problems due to attacks from the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND), which has made life particularly difficult for oil majors such as Royal Dutch Shell PLC (ADR: RDS.A, RDS.B) by bombing pipelines and kidnapping workers.

Russia, the world’s second-largest oil supplier, is also experiencing problems. At a presentation in London yesterday, BP PLC (ADR: BP) Chief Executive Officer Tony Hayward said Russian output would continue to fall without changes to the current tax policy of the Russian government.

“Russian authorities are responding” with fiscal regime changes, though it may take “a couple of years to reverse the current trend,” Hayward said.

High Oil, High Gas, Weak Economy

If oil stays near $140 per barrel, gas prices could easily top $4.75 a gallon by the Fourth of July holiday, Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Economy.com (MCO), said in a recent research note.

And while the thought of gas at almost $5 per gallon is distressing enough, Money Morning’s Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald thinks gas prices could go even higher. In fact, U.S. motorists could easily be looking at $7 a gallon gasoline within just two years. And that could have a disastrous impact on the U.S. economy.

“The bottom line is that the effect on the economy is going to be a lot worse than anyone’s talking about right now,” said Fitz-Gerald, a longtime energy bull who recently boosted his oil-price projection to $225 a barrel. “The bottom line is this: Until someone develops a truly [interchangeable] alternative for oil and gasoline – something that works the same, costs the same and is just as effective – Americans are just going to have to face the fact that over time they’re going to pay more.”

By fixating on near-term prices, and near-term fallout, Fitz-Gerald says that investors and economists alike are missing the bigger point: Long-term – or at least until a true replacement for oil is found – the U.S. economy is going to be badly stung, and U.S. consumers who don’t take steps to protect themselves are looking at a markedly reduced standard of living.

Moody’s Economy.com’s Mark Zandi agrees.

“Unless oil prices soon recede and Washington changes its views and acts to shore up the housing market and broader economy, the outlook for 2009 will weaken further in coming months,” Zandi said.

Zandi added that the U.S. Federal Reserve “will sacrifice near-term growth for the sake of stable prices and the economy’s longer-term prospects” and that the high cost of oil will prevent any further interest rate cuts.

But don’t look for gas prices to move up in a straight line to $5, $6 and $7 a gallon, Fitz-Gerald says. Prices will continue to fluctuate. There will be rallies, and retrenchments, as is the case with the price of any commodity.

But prices will rise, as there is still no truly “fungible” – interchangeable – replacement for petroleum. That’s what’s needed, Fitz-Gerald says.

In the interim, investors should: be “long” on oil and other commodities; have alternative-energy-related investments; and look for profit plays in ancillary sectors, Fitz-Gerald says.

Source: Oil Price Soars $5 on Reduced Supply, Gas Could Head Much Higher

The first comes from Karl N. and he says…

Charles, First you have to buy into the assumption that fuel prices are realistic and will continue to increase! In reality, there is no reason for them to be where they are.

Second, Ethanol requires no more energy to produce than gasoline. Producers must pump, refine, and transport gasoline. Global hunger increased before ethanol because the American farmers cannot cost effectively operate. Fertilizer, fuel, seed, transport costs, living expenses, land and machinery have all increased substantially since the 1960’s without a significant increase in grain prices. The market will have more grain with the increased production of Ethanol than without it.

Please do not buy into propaganda that Ethanol is not efficient to produce, will contribute to world hunger or will drive food prices up (a loaf of bread uses 4-5 cents of wheat in it).
The truth is that unless grain prices increase more farmers will be forced to quit and food supplies will decrease.

I have to say Karl, that fuel prices are realistic even at today’s price. Granted, a lot of speculation has helped take prices higher. But the truth is that according to the Energy Information Administration, the world’s oil production peaked in 2005.

Sure, more oil is being found. But it’s not being found in easy-to-reach places. It’s all offshore, sands, and shale. Production from these areas should come online in time to replace lost production from older wells. The net result? Flat to slightly higher production in the next five to ten years.

Even with US consumption falling, consumption in China, Brazil and India is skyrocketing. The truth is, if these countries keep buying more and more, then oil isn’t too expensive.

Second, you have to admit that corn-based ethanol isn’t the most efficient way to make energy, right? The US Department of Energy says that corn-based ethanol produces a whopping (note the sarcasm) 26 percent more energy than required for production.

That’s god-awful.

Cellulosic ethanol, on the other hand, could produce up to 80 percent more energy than is required to produce it. That’s much better. But mass-scale production is also far off. (There are a few companies setting up pilot plants. But that’s all)

Now, I agree that global hunger isn’t all ethanol’s fault. I’d place the blame on the emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China. But you have to admit, using farmland for fuel means there’s less farmland available for food. And if there’s less food being made, prices move higher.

In addition, corn-based ethanol was a big reason why corn jumped well over 100% after President Bush first announced the ethanol initiative. The effect is obvious – the ethanol hype is helping prices move higher. And this has been a boon to farmers.

Better yet, farmers are poised to make even more money in the years to come, mainly because of growing global demand for food.

I also received an e-mail from Sam L. that said…

As a seasoned investor I wouldn’t put one penny in green stocks, not now or for the near future. It is all hype and no action.

All hype and no action, Sam? How about geothermal producers that are taking off? Or solar producers which are making profits? Wind producers are doing well, and many high-tech battery manufacturers are on the cusp of inking huge, multi-million dollar revenue generating deals.

If you think investing in clean energy is a bad idea, just take a look at the Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy Fund (GEX) and you’ll see that the sector’s been clearly moving higher. And the PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD) has been doing the same.

It seems to me that investing in green stocks is a great thing to do. What you want to do is avoid the companies that have no profits… the ones that are using very experimental technologies that haven’t been proven yet. These companies may do well in the future, but you take a huge risk by putting your money on them now.

In its weekly inventory report, the Energy Information Administration said that crude stocks fell by 4.8 million barrels for the week ended May 30.

However, refinery utilization was up 1.8%, at 89.7% of capacity, compared with 87.9 % a week earlier, and that led to gains in gasoline, up 2.9 million barrels, and distillates, up 2.3 million.

“Today’s report of a drawdown in crude stocks and builds in distillates and gasoline could show that refiners are beginning to increase production of products in response to higher profit margins,” wrote Thomas Hartmann, of Altavest Worldwide Trading.

But “coupled with slowing consumer demand for gasoline and a strengthening dollar, it’s of little surprise to see crude prices back off,” he added.

Source: Oil Moves Lower

This weekend saw the official start of the North Atlantic hurricane season… a vitally important factor to the oil price in the coming months.

And, as everyone knows, predicting the weather can be a losers’ game.

Back in 2005, Hurricane Rita had a disastrous effect on oil production in the Gulf of Mexico.

At one point just after the landfall of the storm, 93% of Gulf platforms were evacuated. As much as 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil (100% of normal output) and 8.8 billion cubic feet (bcf) per day of natural gas (88% of normal output) were shut in.

The cumulative impacts of Hurricanes Katrina and Rita were massive. The total disruption was estimated at 109 million barrels bbls of crude oil (about 20% of annual Gulf production) and 561 bcf of natural gas (15.3% of annual production).

According to the US Energy Information Administration, the US Gulf Coast is the source of about 40% of the gasoline produced in the US and the starting point for most major gasoline pipelines.

With supply constraints dominating the industry, a repeat of 2005 would send the oil price into the stratosphere. Indeed, if we have a repeat of the 2005 season this year, Goldman Sachs prediction of $200 oil may actually be met.

However, as I said earlier, predicting the weather is a losers’ game… and even the forecasters themselves appear to accept this.

Past performance is not a guide…

In fact, long-range hurricane forecasts are so unreliable that many forecaster issue disclaimers with their work, similar to the warnings you see on financial products.

Famous forecaster William Gray has always issued disclaimers with his forecasts. An expel goes like this: “[the forecast] can only predict about 50% of the total variability in Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity.”

North Carolina’s state forecaster Lian Xie added the following to his 2008 forecast – in bold: “Results presented herein are for scientific information exchange only… Users are at their own risk for using the forecasts in any decision making.”

The season has started bang on time this year. Already one named Tropical Storm has formed: Arthur. The storm weakened to a tropical depression on Sunday, after soaking the Yucatan Peninsula, but still threatened to cause dangerous flooding and mudslides in Mexico, Belize and Guatemala.

Last year the forecasters got it wrong. They were predicting a more-active-than-normal season which failed to materialise. This year, who knows, but it is of interest to see what these meteorologists are saying.

The forecast from the US government’s Climate Prediction Center says it’s likely that 2008 will be an active year for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. It has indicated a 65% probability that we’ll see an above-average storm season… a 25% chance it will be average… and just a 10% chance that it will be below average. So, we are looking at 12 -16 named storms, with 6 – 9 hurricanes and 2 – 5 major hurricanes. (A major hurricane is a Category 3, 4 or 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale).

On average, there are 11 named storms, with 6 of them becoming hurricanes.

The experts are predicting an above-average season, but we should take that fact with a pinch of salt. What we need to remember is that every year between 1 June and 30 November a new risk factor moves into the oil market… it is impossible to predict and impossible to quantify… but it’s yet another bull fact for the oil price.

At Smart Commodities we’ve got two great oil plays specifically targeted to earn you profits in this bull market. More than that… it doesn’t matter if the oil price goes up or down… these plays are set to make you money either way.

Find out about these and all my other recommendations right now…

Regards,

Garry White
Editor
Smart Commodities UK

Source: Hurricane Season Hits USA, Prepare For The Resulting UK Petrol Panic Now