Table of Contents:

• Oil Production: Why OPEC’s Keeping a Lid on Production
• Oil Prices: Why Crude Thrives on the Diving Dollar
• Oil Outlook: The Coming Oil Price Shock
• Investing in Oil: The Best Companies, Stocks and ETFs

Oil has staged an impressive rally since dropping below $35 a barrel in mid-February.
And while there remains a risk that prices will retreat further due to sluggish demand, there are also three very compelling reasons why oil is still a safe long-term bet:

• OPEC has made substantial progress in reducing the amount of oil on the market.
• The dollar has been made vulnerable by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy of quantitative easing.
• And low oil prices and tight credit have reduced global energy investment, putting future supply at risk.

There’s no question that downside risk remains. On April 13, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand forecast by 1 million barrels a day, and now expects the world will use about 83.4 million barrels per day in 2009. That would be 2.4 million barrels a day, or 2.8% less than last year.

But so far dwindling demand has failed to contain oil prices.

As Money Morning predicted in its annual outlook series, the first quarter was a volatile one, in which oil prices tested the low $30s before surging over $50 in recent market rally.

And analysts are almost completely united in the view that, despite its short-term volatility, declines in production, exploration and development, and the value of the dollar will drive oil prices substantially higher in the years ahead.

Oil Production: Why OPEC’s Keeping a Lid on Production

The members of OPEC generated tremendous revenue from oil prices that soared over $147 a barrel last year. However, just as the world’s top oil producers began looking for ways to spend their massive stockpiles of cash, prices began a plunge that would see crude lose more than three-quarters of its value.

In a desperate effort to put a floor under oil prices, OPEC – supplier of 40% of the world’s oil – has issued three production cuts totaling 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd), or nearly 12% of its capacity, since September.

While the cuts have not yet been able to return oil prices to the group’s desired price range of $60-$70 a barrel, the cartel abstained from making any further reductions at its latest meeting in March and even voiced optimism that crude would reach $60 a barrel by the end of the year.

“That suggests to us that not only does OPEC have the firepower to support this oil price, but there’s enough internal agreement between OPEC members that they can actually achieve it,” Tom Nelson, an analyst for the Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund told BusinessWeek.

Many analysts had speculated that OPEC members would ignore the quotas and continue to produce oil to generate income, thereby rendering the cuts ineffective. But OPEC’s discipline has proven many critics wrong.

Despite foot-dragging from Iran and Venezuela – two countries that rely heavily on oil revenue to fund massive social programs – OPEC has gotten about 80% compliance on the 4.2 million bpd production cut. Historically, the cartel only gets about 60% compliance on such cuts.

As of February, Saudi Arabia accounted for about 46% of the 3.4 million bpd decline in production, according to PFC Energy. And the United Arab Emirates have fully complied with their share of the cuts. Iran’s compliance by that time was only 33% and Venezuela had only adhered to half of its commitments.

Still, Abdallah El Badri, OPEC’s Secretary General, estimates the production cuts will take about 800,000 bpd of supply off the market, significantly reducing the overhang in global markets, BusinessWeek reported.

OPEC officials from Libya, Algeria, and Iraq have all said that oil prices will reach $60 a barrel by the end of the year.

“One of the reasons why OPEC felt able to roll over quotas was that they do appear to have set a floor for prices,” Mike Wittner, an analyst at Societe Generale SA (ADR: SCGLY), told Reuters. “According to a lot of the balances, including ours, if you have OPEC holding steady or cutting a bit more, you get a big, counter-seasonal stock draw in the third quarter.”

Oil Prices: Why Crude Thrives on the Diving Dollar

Crude futures doubled from July 2007 to July 2008, soaring from about $74 a barrel to a record-high $147 a barrel. Much of that rise can be attributed to supply and demand, but there was another catalyst for the soaring prices that few investors recognized: The rapid decline of the dollar.

From July 2007 to July 2008 the dollar plunged 16% against the euro. And as the dollar became less valuable the cost of commodities around the world skyrocketed.

At the time, inflation – not deflation – was the predominant concern among the world’s leading economists, as a decade of low interest rates and unconstrained lending in the United States sucked the life out of the dollar. And while inflation is nowhere near the levels it reached last year, it’s important to recognize that the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve are no less inflationary.

The Fed has cut its benchmark lending rate to a range of 0%-0.25%, and soon after, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank would purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities and $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities as it pursues a policy of quantitative easing.

This announcement by the Fed, along with a corresponding rise in equities, has been the driving force behind oil’s recent rally.

Ultimately, the same fear of inflation that typically drives investors into the gold market is similarly buoying oil prices. And even though the dollar has yet to be seriously affected, there’s no ignoring the fact that the more than $1 trillion worth of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities injected into the market will imperil the dollar’s value.

Oil Outlook: The Coming Oil Price Shock

Now that a weak dollar and reduced production have bolstered oil prices, there is a growing concern about how much higher crude will climb once demand returns. Tighter lending conditions and a trough in oil prices have badly crimped investment and jeopardized future supplies.

More expensive energy projects such as oil sands have been put on hold and the number of drilling rigs at marginal shallow-water fields around the world has been scaled back to a three-year low.

Oil drilling activity dropped 43% in the 12 months through March, with year-over-year oil exploration in the United States alone down 38%. High bids for offshore drilling rights in the central Gulf of Mexico fell by more than 80% compared with last year.

OPEC has said that with oil generating substantially less revenue as many as 35 new projects could be delayed past 2013.

“I have often described unsustainably low oil prices as carrying the seeds of future spikes and volatility. In a low-price environment, the trend is often to focus on survival instead of expansion,” said Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister. “If we place a low priority on preparing for the future, that lack of action can come back to haunt us through supply shortages and another round of high prices.”

The current economic crisis could reduce future oil supply growth by 8 million bpd, according to a recent study by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).

CERA now says that production will grow by just 7.5 million bpd over the next five years, down from the 14.5 million bpd increase it predicted last summer. According to the research group, as demand recovers throughout that span, production will struggle to keep up and a new commodities bull market, similar to the one seen in 2008 will begin.

“Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices – unprecedented in the history of the oil industry – have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic,” said the report.

CERA isn’t the only organization worried about the lack of investment in new oil projects, either. The International Energy Agency (IEA) – energy advisor to 28 industrialized nations – has also issued warnings about a coming supply crunch.

The IEA estimates daily oil demand will rise from the current level of 86 million barrels to 106 million barrels by 2030. To meet that demand, the agency estimates that the world needs $26.3 trillion in supply-side investments over the next 21 years.

China, India and other developing countries, alone, will need investments of $360 billion a year through 2030, the agency said.  About 7 million bpd of additional capacity needs to be added to the market by 2015.

“Unless sufficient companies have the will and financial ability to invest through the down cycle, there is a real risk that supply growth may lag the eventual rebound of demand, leading to substantial price increases – possibly as early as this year,” Richard Jones, the IEA’s executive director said at a recent conference in London.

Jones estimates that as much as 2 million bpd of expected new oil production has already been deferred.

The IEA predicts that, by 2015, a lack of investment and rising demand will create a “supply crunch” – that will once again send oil prices up into the triple digits.

“There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch in that time frame,” the IEA said in an executive summary of its “2008 World Energy Outlook.” “The gap between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.”
The agency predicts that crude will average more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015 and rise above $200 a barrel by 2030, as demand far outpaces supply.

“Every bull market in oil is really born in the zenith of a bear market,” said Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. “The cutbacks we see today are going to lead to a spike somewhere in the future. The big question is when it’s going to happen.”

Investing in Oil: The Best Companies, Stocks and ETFs

When it comes to investing, the oil sector poses some very clear risks, especially given the murky near-term outlook. However, there are a number of large-cap integrated oil companies that may offer some truly compelling values at current prices.

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and Chevron Corp. (CVX) are currently trading at multi-year lows, making them exceptionally cheap in both relative and absolute terms. These companies also have strong balance sheets (Exxon is “AAA”- rated and has more cash on its balance sheet than debt), generate strong cash flows, and have traditionally increased their dividends on a regular basis.

”Chevron is the kind of company that is capable of continuing to post large profits – propelling its share higher from current levels – even if oil-and-gas prices were to drop from current levels over the next three years,” Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez said. “That’s because Chevron’s business is well cushioned, since refining, marketing and chemicals margins would expand dramatically if market ’spot’ prices were to decline. Also, the company’s production is poised to expand strongly and Chevron uses some selective hedging that works very well in downside oil markets.”USO

Offshore drillers, particularly those capable of drilling in the deepest waters, also offer value at current levels. Petroleo Brasileiro (PBR), also known as Petrobras, is particularly appealing, as it recently discovered one of the largest offshore oil fields on earth off the coast of Rio de Janeiro. Known as Carioca, the field could hold 33 billion barrels of oil and gas, making the world’s largest discovery in at least 32 years.

Keith Fitz-Gerald, Money Morning’s Investment Director, suggests investors look at China National Offshore Oil Corporation, or CNOOC Ltd. (ADR: CEO). The Hong Kong-based company recently got approval for a $29 billion exploration project in the South China Sea. The company expects to produce 50 million tons of oil equivalent per year from that region during the next 10-20 years. That would equal the production of China’s biggest project, the Daqing Oil Field.

Petrobras and CNOOC are also attractive because, as foreign companies, they will also get a boost from any devaluation in the U.S. dollar.

All of these companies have been hit hard by the combination of commodity-price weakness and credit market turmoil. But these operators do not require peak-cycle commodity prices to generate stellar results and have little or no credit-market exposure.

For a more direct play on oil prices, you might also try an exchange-traded fund (ETF), such as the United States Oil Fund LP (USO), the iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return Fund (OIL), or the United States Gasoline Fund LP (UGA).

Source: Three Big Reasons Oil Prices Will Rally Back Big Time

And while there remains a risk that prices will retreat further due to sluggish demand, there are also three very compelling reasons why oil is still a safe long-term bet:

• OPEC has made substantial progress in reducing the amount of oil on the market.
• The dollar has been made vulnerable by the U.S. Federal Reserve’s aggressive policy of quantitative easing.
• And low oil prices and tight credit have reduced global energy investment, putting future supply at risk.

There’s no question that downside risk remains. On April 13, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) lowered its demand forecast by 1 million barrels a day, and now expects the world will use about 83.4 million barrels per day in 2009. That would be 2.4 million barrels a day, or 2.8% less than last year.

But so far dwindling demand has failed to contain oil prices.

The futures contract for benchmark crude settled at $49.66 a barrel on March 31, up 11.3% from where it ended 2008. As Money Morning predicted in its annual outlook series, the first quarter was a volatile one, in which oil prices tested the low $30s before surging over $50 in recent market rally.

And analysts are almost completely united in the view that, despite its short-term volatility, declines in production, exploration and development, and the value of the dollar will drive oil prices substantially higher in the years ahead.

OPEC Keeps a Lid on Production

The members of OPEC generated tremendous revenue from oil prices that soared over $147 a barrel last year. However, just as the world’s top oil producers began looking for ways to spend their massive stockpiles of cash, prices began a plunge that would see crude lose more than three-quarters of its value.

In a desperate effort to put a floor under oil prices, OPEC – supplier of 40% of the world’s oil – has issued three production cuts totaling 4.2 million barrels per day (bpd), or nearly 12% of its capacity, since September.

While the cuts have not yet been able to return oil prices to the group’s desired price range of $60-$70 a barrel, the cartel abstained from making any further reductions at its latest meeting in March and even voiced optimism that crude would reach $60 a barrel by the end of the year.

“That suggests to us that not only does OPEC have the firepower to support this oil price but there’s enough internal agreement between OPEC members that they can actually achieve it,” Tom Nelson, an analyst for the Guinness Atkinson Global Energy Fund told BusinessWeek.

Many analysts had speculated that OPEC members would ignore the quotas and continue to produce oil to generate income, thereby rendering the cuts ineffective. But OPEC’s discipline has proven many critics wrong.

Despite foot-dragging from Iran and Venezuela – two countries that rely heavily on oil revenue to fund massive social programs – OPEC has gotten about 80% compliance on the 4.2 million bpd production cut. Historically, the cartel only gets about 60% compliance on such cuts.

As of February, Saudi Arabia accounted for about 46% of the 3.4 million bpd decline in production, according to PFC Energy. And the United Arab Emirates have fully complied with their share of the cuts. Iran’s compliance by that time was only 33% and Venezuela had only adhered to half of its commitments.

Still, Abdallah El Badri, OPEC’s Secretary General, estimates the production cuts will take about 800,000 bpd of supply off the market, significantly reducing the overhang in global markets, BusinessWeek reported.

OPEC officials from Libya, Algeria, and Iraq have all said that oil prices will reach $60 a barrel by the end of the year.

“One of the reasons why OPEC felt able to roll over quotas was that they do appear to have set a floor for prices,” Mike Wittner, an analyst at Societe Generale SA (ADR: SCGLY), told Reuters. “According to a lot of the balances, including ours, if you have OPEC holding steady or cutting a bit more, you get a big, counter-seasonal stock draw in the third quarter.”

Crude Thrives on the Diving Dollar

Crude futures doubled from July 2007 to July 2008, soaring from about $74 a barrel to a record-high $147 a barrel. Much of that rise can be attributed to supply and demand, but there was another catalyst for the soaring prices that few investors recognized: The rapid decline of the dollar.

From July 2007 to July 2008 the dollar plunged 16% against the euro. And as the dollar became less valuable the cost of commodities around the world skyrocketed.

At the time, inflation – not deflation – was the predominant concern among the world’s leading economists, as a decade of low interest rates and unconstrained lending in the United States sucked the life out of the dollar. And while inflation is nowhere near the levels it reached last year, it’s important to recognize that the policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve are no less inflationary.

The Fed has cut its benchmark lending rate to a range of 0%-0.25%, and last month, Fed Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank would purchase up to $300 billion of longer-term Treasury securities and $750 billion of mortgage-backed securities as it pursues a policy of quantitative easing.

This announcement by the Fed, along with a corresponding rise in equities, has been the driving force behind oil’s recent rally.

“[Oil prices] are being possessed by the dollar and the stock market,” Phil Flynn, an analyst at Alaron Trading Corp. told The Associated Press. “It’s not an oil market anymore. It’s a stock-currency market because that’s what we’re reacting to right now.”

Ultimately, the same fear of inflation that typically drives investors into the gold market is similarly buoying oil prices. And even though the dollar has yet to be seriously affected, there’s no ignoring the fact that its value has been imperiled.

“The recent announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve of its intention to purchase over $1 trillion worth of government bonds and mortgage-backed securities has served to put additional pressure on the value of the dollar as this is viewed by the market as creating a lower yield and fanning the flames of inflation,” Wall Street Strategies’ senior research analyst Conley Turner told Xinhua.

The Coming Oil Price Shock

Now that a weak dollar and reduced production have bolstered oil prices, there is a growing concern about how much higher crude will climb once demand returns. Tighter lending conditions and a trough in oil prices have badly crimped investment and jeopardized future supplies.

More expensive energy projects such as oil sands have been put on hold and the number of drilling rigs at marginal shallow-water fields around the world has been scaled back to a three-year low.

Oil drilling activity dropped 43% in the 12 months through March, with year-over-year oil exploration in the United States alone down 38%. High bids for offshore drilling rights in the central Gulf of Mexico fell by more than 80% compared with last year.

OPEC has said that with oil generating substantially less revenue as many as 35 new projects could be delayed past 2013.

“I have often described unsustainably low oil prices as carrying the seeds of future spikes and volatility. In a low-price environment, the trend is often to focus on survival instead of expansion,” said Ali al-Naimi, the Saudi oil minister. “If we place a low priority on preparing for the future, that lack of action can come back to haunt us through supply shortages and another round of high prices.”

The current economic crisis could reduce future oil supply growth by 8 million bpd, according to a recent study by the Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA).

CERA now says that production will grow by just 7.5 million bpd over the next five years, down from the 14.5 million bpd increase it predicted last summer. According to the research group, as demand recovers throughout that span, production will struggle to keep up and a new commodities bull market, similar to the one seen in 2008 will begin.

“Seven consecutive years of rising oil prices – unprecedented in the history of the oil industry – have come crashing down, thus burying the notion that the commodity price cycle was a historical relic,” said the report.

CERA isn’t the only organization worried about the lack of investment in new oil projects, either. The International Energy Agency (IEA) – energy advisor to 28 industrialized nations – has also issued warnings about a coming supply crunch.

The IEA estimates daily oil demand will rise from the current level of 86 million barrels to 106 million barrels by 2030. To meet that demand, the agency estimates that the world needs $26.3 trillion in supply-side investments over the next 21 years.

China, India and other developing countries, alone, will need investments of $360 billion a year through 2030, the agency said.

About 7 million bpd of additional capacity needs to be added to the market by 2015.

“Unless sufficient companies have the will and financial ability to invest through the downcycle, there is a real risk that supply growth may lag the eventual rebound of demand, leading to substantial price increases – possibly as early as this year,” Richard Jones, the IEA’s executive director said at a recent conference in London.

Jones estimates that as much as 2 million bpd of expected new oil production has already been deferred.

The IEA predicts that, by 2015, a lack of investment and rising demand will create a “supply crunch” – that will once again send oil prices up into the triple digits.

“There remains a real risk that under-investment will cause an oil supply crunch in that time frame,” the IEA said in an executive summary of its “2008 World Energy Outlook.” “The gap between what is currently being built and what will be needed to keep pace with demand is set to widen sharply after 2010.”

The agency predicts that crude will average more than $100 a barrel from 2008 to 2015 and rise above $200 a barrel by 2030, as demand far outpaces supply.

“Every bull market in oil is really born in the zenith of a bear market,” said Alaron Trading Corp.’s Flynn. “The cutbacks we see today are going to lead to a spike somewhere in the future. The big question is when it’s going to happen.”

Source: Three Big Reasons Oil Prices Will Resume Their Rally

This from David:

A few weeks ago, during a particularly bad cold snap, we had a pipe freeze underneath our 200-year-old farmhouse, causing us to go without water for a few days. I eventually managed to unfreeze the pipe, but there was no question it was disruptive for a busy household of four.

Here in the United States, we don’t realize how much we take our fresh water supply for granted, until it’s suddenly cut off. We’re used to turning on the faucet and there it is.

But for the folks in California, 2009 is shaping up to be a big fresh water disaster in the making. Last Thursday, state water officials reported that the snow pack in the Sierra Nevada Mountains is only 61% of what is considered normal for this time of year.

An with only eight weeks left in the rainy season, significant rain and snow is needed for the next two months in order to divert a disaster.

That’s on top of back-to-back dry years in 2007 and 2008. The situation is so bleak, officials may be forced to ration water on a statewide basis for the first time since the 1990s.

Lester Snow, the Director of California’s Department of Water Resources, put the situation in perspective: “We may be at the start of the worst California drought in modern history. It’s imperative for Californians to conserve water immediately – at home and in their businesses.”

The fallout has already hurt the wild salmon population, and if the drought continues, it will get even worse. Farmers, who use 80% of California’s water for irrigation, will have to cutback on the number of acres they plant. That will have a devastating impact, as agriculture is one of the most important sectors of California’s economy.

Fresh Water: The New Oil

Fresh water has been talked about as the “new oil,” but it’s far more important. The human race can survive without crude oil, but not without water. We can’t live more than a week without it.

And for that reason – unlike oil – it is completely immune to demand destruction. We need a pint a day, on average, to maintain a healthy existence. If you include the amount used to produce our food, the number jumps to nearly 1,000 gallons per day per person, and even more in countries whose citizens eat a lot of meat.

The main problem with oil is finding more of it. With water, it’s the distribution system that’s the issue, as it primarily flows through pipes. Many were installed when Edison was fooling around with electricity.

While California has its own set of special problems when it comes to water and its distribution, the problem is monumental nationwide:

• 650,000 miles of antique water pipes are in need of repair or replacement.
• Nearly 30% of the water infrastructure in New York City – and most other big metropolitan areas in the east – dates back to when Lincoln was president.
• Many of the nation’s water purification facilities are more than 50 years old, and completely outdated.

But don’t think the United States is alone in this dilemma. China has lots of water, but much of it is polluted or untreated. Roughly 300 million of its 1.3 billion people don’t have access to clean drinking water out of the tap.

China is spending tens of billions of dollars annually to try to fix the problem.

2 Ways to Play the Coming Water Boom

While the recession has consumers hunkering down – and cutting back their purchases of computers, cell phones, toys and other discretionary items – it hasn’t decreased their demand for clean, fresh water.

And one of the biggest companies in the world that’s able to provide the infrastructure to deliver it is Veolia Environment (NYSE: VE). It provides bumper-to-bumper environmental management services for both water and wastewater.

Whether it’s supplying clean water, recycling wastewater, or developing waste conservation systems, Veolia has a solution.

In China, it’s operating freshwater plants, wastewater decontamination and recycling plants and sewerage treatment facilities.

And now you can add some shares to your portfolio at more than a 75% discount to what they were trading a year ago. Veolia currently trades with a P/E of 8.8 and sports an 8.1% dividend yield.

A different, but no less lucrative, way to invest in water stocks is the Calgon Carbon Corporation (NYSE: CCC). Calgon is a manufacturer of activated carbon granules, a material that’s essential in many of the world’s water purification systems and over 700 other liquid purification and odor control applications.

Carbon granules remove impurities from water, air and many industrial processes.

And business is booming for Calgon:

• The company’s shares are up over 200% since September 2006, and worldwide demand is continually increasing for its products.
• Sales in 2008 were $351 million, with roughly 62% of that coming from the Americas, and only 7% coming from Asia.

Clearly the opportunities for the company are enormous. This past year, the company signed a contract with the Jiaxing Jiayuan Water Company to provide 1.1 million pounds of carbon granules for water purification.

James Fishburn, Calgon Senior Vice President, commented on the significance of the order: “Over the last 40 years, Calgon Carbon has supplied millions of pounds of activated carbon to municipalities all over the world, and we are committed to serving the rapidly growing markets in China.”

In summary, both companies mentioned above are addressing a market that will be rapidly expanding for the foreseeable future. Fresh water is clearly the new oil. And now’s a great time to make it part of your infrastructure and energy portfolio.

Source: Fresh Water: California Drought Reveals the “New Oil”

This from Today’s Financial News:

When Americans want something, we want it now. We want our big house with a white picket fence, and we want it now. We do not want to have to wait until we have a sizeable down payment or a job that pays well enough that we can afford it.

When we want a new car, we want it now. We will not wait until we can buy it with cash.

And most importantly, when we want our economy to get back on its feet, we want it now. That is why we are constantly bombarded with terms like bailouts, TARP, life preservers, and rescue packages. Americans are willing to risk everything as long as it will provide positive short-term results.

Short-termism is a deadly disease that could kill an investor’s shot at success.

****** Oil at $70 a Barrel — Gold at $500 by Christmas? ******

With stocks as volatile as nitroglycerin, gold should be trading above $2,000 an ounce! But the dollar insurrection has shaken up the commodities markets. Some experts now put gold’s downside at $500… even $400.

What if they’re right?

TFN’s options strategist Andrew Snyder has developed a gold hedge strategy that could make you money on your gold position either way. Find his Special Report on the Members Only Reports section of HotStockConfidential.com. To become an instant member, click here…
———–

Fortunately, the short-termism pandemic has not affected everybody in this country. There are still plenty of investors and companies looking for strong, long-term returns.

One of them, surprisingly, is Archer Daniels Midland (NYSE:ADM), the company known for its huge stance in the heart of the bubble of all bubbles, the ethanol industry.

As you probably know, the nation’s ethanol industry has all but dried up. The hype we saw 24-months ago is gone. The profit potential is nearly nothing. And, because they focused solely on short-term profits, many of the industry’s largest players are in bankruptcy or darn close to it.

But ADM is different. In fact, it is doing surprisingly well and is even increasing its stake in the world’s ethanol industry.

Why is it running into an industry when everybody else is running out?

ADM is one of the industry’s only companies that focus on long-term profitability. It is using the recent ethanol bust as an opportunity to strengthen its stance, increase its competitive moat, and buy its competitor’s assets at rock-bottom prices.

Life after tomorrow

Investors once debilitated by short-termism are finally starting to see the logic behind ADM’s maneuvering. A blow-out earnings report, which showed the company more than doubled its first-quarter profits, helped prove to many investors ADM is a long-term leader. Since the report, share price has risen by about 20%.

Of course, ADM is involved in a lot more than ethanol, it is a global commodities powerhouse, but the biofuel sector is getting a lot of the company’s attention. In fact, just yesterday [Thursday] executives announced the company is investing $370 million in Brazil’s ethanol market.

When one industry is sagging, good companies look for opportunities elsewhere. Instead of begging the government for bailout assistance or closing shop, ADM’s superb management team put on its long-term glasses and searched for better opportunities.

The company has a great shot at success throughout the world as alternative energy grows from short-term hype to a long-term power industry.

Even if Obama makes good on all of his immense promises, the nation is not going to be “green” by 2010 or even 2020. But you can bet, in the long run ADM will be competing with the likes of Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM) in a drastically greener America.

If you want to get rich and stay rich, you have to treat short-termism like an evil enemy. The mental flaw will do you no good.

Source: Patience is a virtue