I received an article from Kevin Kerr the other day on our current US agriculture supply.

Here is the link:
http://biz.yahoo.com/rb/080609/markets_grains.html?.v=4

I like this…

“Worries about tight fundamentals, such as low stocks and high demand, was likely to continue feeding the rally in corn, market participants said.”

Gee, do ya think so?

Hey, over the weekend, parts of Indiana got hit with 10 inches of rain. Not exactly corn-weather, if you get my drift. Can’t do much planting in those conditions.

Stand by for an ag disaster this fall….

Also over the weekend, I was listening to a speech by Obama… He said that we’d solve our energy problems over time, “by switching to getting our energy from windmills, solar and biofuels.” No crap. That’s what he said. I almost wrecked the car against a bridge abutment as I listened to that comment.

On the other side, McCain doesn’t want to drill in ANWR because “ANWR is a national treasure like the Grand Canyon.” No crap, that’s what he said. Huh? I’ve been to ANWR and ANWR is no Grand Canyon.

We be doomed…

Really, could the Demos & Repubs have nominated two more energy-illiterate candidates?

Problem is that Big Politics treats energy like “just another issue.” As in, Are you for abortion or against it? For gun control or against it? For estate taxes or against them?

From the “energy” standpoint, you have the faux-environmental movement that says we are doing “the earth” a favor by not developing resources. It’s an issue, and on that issue they vote for Demos or not. (Never vote for a Repub, which makes McCain’s position all the more curious.) It’s just an article of faith within the enviro movement to oppose development. Oppose Uber Alles.

And whenever someone does propose development, that’s called a “fund raising opportunity” for enviros. They put out “oil spill & dying seal” brochures that make a lot of advertisements look tame by comparison.

But the no-grow thinking is premised on the assumption that the US dollar is still supreme. As a nation, we need something with which to “buy it” if we don’t produce it at home. That is, if there are still people who want to sell it to us.

I’d like to put it in terms the enviros can understand. Indeed, I’ve often wondered how the most ardent environmentalists think that without oil & refineries, the airlines can somehow buy the jet fuel it takes to fly from LAX to JFK for the weekend trip to the Big Apple. Really, flight requires jet fuel… Do the enviros really get that?

Until we meet again,

Byron King

Note: Byron King is a frequent contributor to the free e-letter Whiskey & Gunpowder. To receive daily insights into energy, oil, commodities and other natural resources sign up here!

Source: US Agriculture Supply and the Coming Election

The Automotive Energy Revolution

EVERY AUTOMOBILE ON THE ROADS of the world reflects a long and complex chain of industrial production and energy usage. Yet we live in a world where many of the highest quality resources and energy supplies have already been exploited. And lower quality resources are more expensive to extract and exploit, if they are even available. So the world’s automobile industry is in the midst of a revolution in both resource availability and energy consumption.

Thinking about Basic Materials and Energy

Today the automobile business is vast. It is a global industry that has evolved by leaps and bounds in the 100 years since Henry Ford made his famous remark in 1908 about building “a car for the great multitude.” The worldwide customer base includes at least a billion people — spread over six continents — who have income sufficient to buy a car or small truck. According to figures assembled at the MIT Sloan Automotive Laboratory, there are about 700 million automobiles and light trucks in the world. About 30 percent of those vehicles are in North America.

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Every car requires steel, aluminum, copper and lead. Each car requires rubber, plastic, and myriad of other petroleum and natural gas by-products. And there is much else in the long industrial ladder of automobile production. Just think in terms of the energy that goes into processing materials, fabricating parts, building components, assembling a finished product, and all the transportation along the way. In addition to the basic energy and material resources that go into manufacturing an automobile, the sheer number of vehicles reflects a lot of fuel tanks to fill with gasoline and diesel. And this does not even touch on the energy and resources that go into building road systems.

Automobiles and Energy

The oil shocks of the 1970s — in both price and availability — spurred improvements in auto energy efficiency within the U.S. as well as worldwide. In the U.S., the increase in fuel efficiency was related to rising costs for gasoline, as well as government mandates for higher fuel efficiency dating from the late 1970s. On average over the past 25 years, the typical power train of gasoline-fueled automobiles in the U.S. has improved in efficiency by about one percent per year according to data gathered by MIT. While discrete, one percent improvements may not appear to be much, the compound improvement in the typical U.S. automotive engine over 25 years has been about 30 percent.

There has been even more progress in the fuel efficiency of diesel engines over the past 25 years. Diesel power trains are no longer the sooty, “knock-knock” devices that they were back in the days of disco. Most cars sold today in the European Union (EU), for example, are powered with clean-burning, fuel efficient, smoothly running diesel engines. In fact, the demand for diesel fuel in Europe is such that EU refineries routinely ship surplus gasoline to sell into the North American market. And in North America the relatively low prices for gasoline throughout the 1980s and 1990s discouraged the use of diesel engines.

So there have been significant improvements in automobile power train efficiencies over the past couple of decades. But have these improvements translated into any overall reduction in demand for fuel? No. In 2007 motor fuel consumption in the U.S. was high as it has ever been. (Although according to the American Petroleum Institute, demand for motor fuel may be at a plateau due to price increases at the pump in 2006 and 2007.) In the past 25 years we’ve seen more people driving more cars for more miles. But compounding the fuel issue, the cars that people are buying and driving tend to weigh more and offer higher performance.

The Future of the Automobile

As I’ve said over and over again in Whiskey and Gunpowder, we live in a world of peaking oil output, and of energy and resource scarcity. So the trend lines for fuel usage by automobiles simply cannot continue for much longer. The first, most obvious sign is the rising price for oil and by extension for fuel at the pump. Something has got to give, and the energy markets are sending signals of long-term high prices for motor fuel. Where do we go from here?

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