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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Energy Sector</title>
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		<title>Buy, Sell or Hold: Why NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is the Energy Sector’s “Triple-Threat” Profit Play</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-sell-or-hold-why-nrg-energy-inc-nyse-nrg-is-the-energy-sector%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9ctriple-threat%e2%80%9d-profit-play/20238</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/buy-sell-or-hold-why-nrg-energy-inc-nyse-nrg-is-the-energy-sector%e2%80%99s-%e2%80%9ctriple-threat%e2%80%9d-profit-play/20238#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Aug 2009 15:00:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Horacio Marquez</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Investment & Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EXC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Horacio Marquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[NRG]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Retail Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RRI]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>If <strong>NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=nrg" target="_blank">NRG</a>)</strong> were an athletic prospect, scouts would rate it as a “triple threat.” That’s because the Princeton-based wholesale power generator is involved in all three of the key energy sources of the future: Solar, wind and nuclear.</p>
<p>And that’s only part of the reason I like this stock.</p>
<p>Growing profit margins and earnings momentum add to the energy company’s appeal – and a rebound in U.S. economic activity hasn’t even begun in full.</p>
<p>When NRG announced its second-quarter results a few weeks ago, the company said that its profits tripled from a year ago – eclipsing Wall Street estimates and setting a new record. It also <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?symbol=NRG.N&#38;pn=2" target="_blank">boosted its earnings guidance for all of 2009</a>, and increased its stock-buyback target from its previous&#8230;</p></div>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>If <strong>NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=nrg" target="_blank">NRG</a>)</strong> were an athletic prospect, scouts would rate it as a “triple threat.” That’s because the Princeton-based wholesale power generator is involved in all three of the key energy sources of the future: Solar, wind and nuclear.</p>
<p>And that’s only part of the reason I like this stock.</p>
<p>Growing profit margins and earnings momentum add to the energy company’s appeal – and a rebound in U.S. economic activity hasn’t even begun in full.</p>
<p>When NRG announced its second-quarter results a few weeks ago, the company said that its profits tripled from a year ago – eclipsing Wall Street estimates and setting a new record. It also <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/keyDevelopments?symbol=NRG.N&amp;pn=2" target="_blank">boosted its earnings guidance for all of 2009</a>, and increased its stock-buyback target from its previous $330 million worth of its shares to $500 million.</p>
<p>Income from continuing operations was $432 million – a marked improvement over last year’s $41 million loss.  And its recent acquisition of the Texas retail-energy business of <strong>Reliant Energy Inc. </strong>[now <strong>RRI Energy Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=rri" target="_blank">RRI</a>)</strong>] is starting to pay off.</p>
<p>In two months the tie-up has already delivered $200 million of the planned $400 million in adjusted earnings before income taxes, depreciation and amortization (essentially a cash-flow metric that professional investors refer to as “<a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/e/ebitda.asp" target="_blank">EBITDA</a>”) gains for the year.  With disciplined management this acquisition should outperform its estimated gains.  This analysis is being recognized as we speak by the market, with unusual January call option activity in RRI stock last Friday.</p>
<p>NRG has interest in 44 power plants with 24,005 megawatts (MW) net ownership, most of which is in the United States. Plants in Texas and the Northeast account for almost 18,000 MW, giving the company positioning in fairly strong markets where environmental, but NRG also has operations in Australia and Germany.</p>
<p>The company distinguishes itself by having operating margins that are roughly double that of its peers – the product of its efficient fleet composition and prudent active energy price hedging policies. The hedges NRG currently has in place are likely to outperform analysts’ estimates, as well. That’s because no analyst wants to be caught over-estimating upside, especially in volatile markets like energy futures. So, Wall Street consistently undervalues the expected value of these hedges, which the firm carries on a mark-to-market basis. That was the case in the second quarter.</p>
<p>With respect to the economy, industrial sector inventories are very low, meaning they will need to be replenished in the third quarter.  The government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (<a href="http://www.cars.gov/" target="_blank">CARS</a>), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers,” gave a nice boost to industrial production, and some signs of stability and even some gains – let’s cross our fingers –<a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/30/housing-market-bottom/" target="_blank">can be seen in some areas of the housing market</a>.</p>
<p>We’re by no means out of the woods, yet, but U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) did better than expected in the last quarter – shrinking by just 1% – and is likely to beat analysts’ expectations in the third quarter as well. That’s good news for NRG because the third quarter is traditionally the most profitable quarter of the year for utilities. Prices should firm up, benefiting this company’s already stellar return on investment (ROI).</p>
<p>And in addition to being well positioned to profit in the short-term, NRG is an outstanding long-term play because it’s ready to capitalize on the next stage of “green” energy development: low carbon emissions. After all, green is the color of money.</p>
<p>The company’s natural-gas, new and existing commercial nuclear, and new and very large wind-and-solar-power projects are sure to benefit longer term from the move towards environmentally-friendly forms of energy generation.</p>
<p>With total liquidity of $4 billion, NRG is in an impeccable position to develop its planned projects and take advantage of small opportunistic acquisitions, should they appear.  The company has a very prudently managed balance sheet and a shrewd growth management discipline, which is an invaluable attribute in adverse economic conditions where cash is king.</p>
<p>And let’s say that all of these advantages that we have outlined here have not gone unnoticed by the competition:  Two companies in the last three years have attempted to acquire NRG.  Most recently, <strong>Exelon Corp. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AEXC" target="_blank">EXC</a>)</strong> attempted to buy NRG outright. And even when the takeover attempt was rebuffed, NRG stock did not suffer. Exelon has since backed off from its acquisition attempt.  That stock-price stability reflects strong investor confidence in management’s execution.</p>
<p>At Friday’s closing price of $27.50, NRG’s stock was still down about 30% from its 52-week high of $39.09 – just one of several reasons it still has room to rise, even after a scorching 91% run from its 52-week low of $14.39.</p>
<p>The stock is trading at a low 10 times forward earnings, has been consistently above its 200-day moving average since mid-July and is oversold by many proprietary measures.  This stock could be ripe for a strong upward move as we approach the end of the year.  What’s more important is that the intrinsic long-term value of the company is undervalued at these prices.</p>
<p><strong>Recommendation:  Buy</strong> <strong>NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=nrg" target="_blank">NRG</a>)</strong> <strong>at market (**).</strong></p>
<p><strong>(**) – Special Note of Disclosure</strong>: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in <strong>NRG Energy Inc.</strong></p>
<p><strong>Source:<a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/08/31/nrg-energy/">Buy, Sell or Hold: Why NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is the Energy Sector’s “Triple-Threat” Profit Play</a></strong></div>
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		<title>The iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund is a Good Way to Brace for Imminent Inflation</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-ishares-barclays-tips-bond-fund-is-a-good-way-to-brace-for-imminent-inflation/18728</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Jul 2009 17:30:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Horacio Marquez</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bond Fund]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Carbon Emissions]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy costs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Horacio Marquez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TIP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TIPS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Unemployment Rate]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/?p=18728</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>It is high time for our political leaders to make some key decisions.  And that translates into large uncertainties for investors that have held the market in a range and with low volume. We do not know whether “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cap_and_trade" target="_blank">Cap and Trade</a>” legislation will pass the Senate and we do not know whether and any healthcare bill will pass through Congress, or what that bill might entail.  And these two issues are paramount for the future of America.  </p>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/06/29/tsw-claymore-tax-advantaged-balanced-fund/" target="_blank">As we discussed earlier</a>, cap and trade could cause incremental costs in energy for all of the United States, particularly in all carbon-based generation of electricity.  Increasing these costs will make carbon-based energy less competitive with alternative sources, like solar and nuclear.  The benefits&#8230;</p></div>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>It is high time for our political leaders to make some key decisions.  And that translates into large uncertainties for investors that have held the market in a range and with low volume. We do not know whether “<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cap_and_trade" target="_blank">Cap and Trade</a>” legislation will pass the Senate and we do not know whether and any healthcare bill will pass through Congress, or what that bill might entail.  And these two issues are paramount for the future of America.  </p>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/06/29/tsw-claymore-tax-advantaged-balanced-fund/" target="_blank">As we discussed earlier</a>, cap and trade could cause incremental costs in energy for all of the United States, particularly in all carbon-based generation of electricity.  Increasing these costs will make carbon-based energy less competitive with alternative sources, like solar and nuclear.  The benefits of this legislation will be less carbon emissions, cleaner air, less dependence on imported oil and the <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/06/29/jobless-recovery-3/" target="_blank">creation of new jobs in the alternative energy sector</a>.</p>
<p>However, this all comes at the expense of jobs in the traditional energy sector, which is currently the backbone of our energy policy. It also means higher job losses in the rest of the economy due to higher energy costs.  Remember that the United States is the “Saudi Arabia of coal,” given its abundance here.</p>
<p>All of these uncertainties are huge, as are the stakes for a multitude of sectors.  I have been surprised by the unpredictable decisions of our legislators many times.  In addition, legislative add-ons that tack hundreds of pages onto a bill right before it comes to a vote make prior analysis nearly impossible.  Therefore, unless the outcome is almost a foregone conclusion and the details are clearly spelled out well beforehand, making strong bets on their legislative outcomes is just plain gambling.</p>
<p>The unemployment rate rose to 9.5% in June as the economy shed 467,00 jobs. That’s up from 322,000 in May.  Jobs are a lagging indicator and tend to peak well after the economy has peaked.  But they are the best coincident indicator of economic activity.</p>
<p>Warren Buffet recently said that he has not yet seen any green shoots in the economy.  Conversely, <strong>General Electric Co. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ge" target="_blank">GE</a>)</strong> Chief Executive Officer <a href="http://www.reuters.com/finance/stocks/officerProfile?symbol=GE.N&amp;officerId=28187" target="_blank">Jeffery Immelt</a> said that all the pieces are in place for a recovery in the United States.  Yet the only areas of strength he mentioned were abroad:  China, some areas of the Middle East and other emerging economies.</p>
<p>But what we can all agree on right now is that there is no inflation in sight, despite the massive amounts of quantitative easing from the U.S. Federal Reserve.  But it won’t be long before inflation does rear its ugly head.</p>
<p>Like the people in Germany who were deeply affected by hyperinflation, I remember living and analyzing companies in Argentina in the 80s with inflation rising at a rate of 1% a day.  It was not fun, and the distortions to economic activity and financial statements were amazing.</p>
<p>Although the Fed has repeatedly indicated that it is ready to remove the monetary stimuli at the appropriate moment in an aggressive-enough fashion so as to preclude an inflationary spike, neither we can be sure that the central bank’s actions will meet with immediate success.</p>
<p>Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke is very capable and his resolve gives me comfort, but as former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan told us when he was running the central bank, there are important variables in monetary policy that the Fed cannot know for sure: Among them are the lags between the Fed’s actions and the response in the economy and the precise sensitivity of the economy’s response to the Fed’s actions.  It is like steering a large transatlantic ship while watching in the rearview mirror.  By the time you <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Titanic" target="_blank">see an iceberg</a>, the ability to reverse or alter the course is very limited.</p>
<p>If we observe that the level of both monetary and fiscal intervention in the economy is at historic highs, then we have to understand that applying the just doses of intervention and reducing those doses as the economy gains a “self-sustaining” pace is a very tricky exercise.  Even allowing for the best of intentions and the immaculate professional abilities of the Fed, this will be a very difficult task to pull off.  And what is self-sustaining growth, anyhow?</p>
<p>We also need to understand that the current reflationary policy, which was employed to prevent the country from falling into a deflationary spiral, is actually seeking to create a little inflation.  And it would be unpardonable to see the country fall back into a double-dip recession after all this intervention, should the Fed pull on the reins too soon.</p>
<p>In fact, the Fed and the Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner have repeatedly led us to believe that they intend to see the recovery ingrained before withdrawing significant amounts of stimuli.  It makes all the sense in the world.  The logical implication is that they would rather see an unpleasant reading or two on the inflation front than see an unpleasant reading on the growth side.  It is a very difficult situation to manage and they are not perfect.</p>
<p>So right now, when inflation expectations are well subdued, it is a good idea to add a position in Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS).  The easy way of doing this is by buying the <strong>iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=TIP" target="_blank">TIP</a>)</strong>.</p>
<p>All of these pending uncertainties that I mentioned are adding to the traditional summer doldrums and we are seeing very low stock trading volumes.  So we are going to take advantage of the situation to get a good valuation on these bonds well before inflation expectations pick up.</p>
<p>Also, adding bonds to the portfolio has a stabilizing effect.  And the two traditional worries with bonds: A drop in the value of the U.S. Dollar and an increase in inflation are actually hedged, at least in part, with TIPS.  Because inflation is fully hedged as the principal is indexed by the consumer price index (CPI) index.</p>
<p><strong>Recommendation:</strong> <strong>iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=TIP" target="_blank">TIP</a>)</strong><strong>at market<strong> (**)</strong>.</strong><br />
<strong>(**) - Special Note of Disclosure</strong>: Horacio Marquez holds no interest in the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund.</div>
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		<title>Clean, Rhymes with Green</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/clean-rhymes-with-green/16361</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/clean-rhymes-with-green/16361#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 May 2009 16:04:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Byron King</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Investment & Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Byron King]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Clean Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Renewable Energy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">There’s lots of money to be made in the “clean energy” sector…Maybe more so now than ever before. My confidence in the investment potential of renewable energy gained some interesting corroboration the other day.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">
</p><p class="MsoNormal">I had lunch with a “brain trust,” of sorts. Participants included a retired executive from an aerospace company. This guy helped design and build many of the reconnaissance satellites that the U.S. has launched. There was a senior executive from a large steel company. There was a venture capitalist who made his first $500 million in the software industry, and who now has much of that wealth spread around in biotech and nanotech startups. And then there was me.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you’re into lunches where you’d rather listen than&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p class="MsoNormal">There’s lots of money to be made in the “clean energy” sector…Maybe more so now than ever before. My confidence in the investment potential of renewable energy gained some interesting corroboration the other day.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">
<p class="MsoNormal">I had lunch with a “brain trust,” of sorts. Participants included a retired executive from an aerospace company. This guy helped design and build many of the reconnaissance satellites that the U.S. has launched. There was a senior executive from a large steel company. There was a venture capitalist who made his first $500 million in the software industry, and who now has much of that wealth spread around in biotech and nanotech startups. And then there was me.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">If you’re into lunches where you’d rather listen than eat, then this was the lunch for you.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to the satellite builder, the dominant elements of the political and media culture are “completely in the tank” when it comes to believing in the dangers of “climate change.” It’s not as if climate change is demonstrably true, he pointed out. There are valid scientific data from both sides of the climate change issue, and many valid data points in between. But according to the satellite builder &#8211; some of whose satellites were built to track climate change — “For at least ten years, if you have not been promoting the dangers of climate change then you have not been receiving government grants. So the research community is following the money.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Thus, the research literature is coming out strongly in favor of “doing something” about climate change. And policy-makers are using this research literature to justify doing something about climate change, even if the something that they are doing does not make any scientific or economic sense.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to the steel executive, the climate change issue has spurred what amounts to “a pathological hatred” of carbon-based energy systems. “It doesn’t have to make practical sense,” says this source. “It doesn’t even have to work with economics. It just has to support a policy to utterly transform the nation’s energy system. The people making policy now have a crusader’s mentality. So the new policy makers want to promote radical change in energy policy. They’re going to jam it down the throat of the economy.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">According to the steel executive, the steel industry expects to see inflation-adjusted, baseline energy prices triple or quadruple within ten years. “Whether the government taxes carbon-based energy at the source, or whether they pass ‘cap-and-trade’ legislation, it’s going to cost us. So we’ll pay. Of course, we’ll pass along the new costs to the steel buyers. If demand goes down, we’ll close facilities. Then the TV cameras will show up at the plant gates to watch us shut the doors and click the padlocks. And we’ll get called bad names by the people who never much liked us in the first place.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">The venture capitalist chimed in with some thoughts. “If the feds are going to spend billions on stimulus, then they ought to direct some of that money to help fund promising research. How about some money to pay for every fossil-fuel power plant in the country to siphon off some of its CO2? Then run the CO2 through a facility to grow algae to make biofuels.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">“We’d be killing about four birds with one stone,” explained the venture capitalist. “We’d be taking down CO2 emissions. Not much, maybe, but some. We’d be helping an embryonic industry that can be competitive in coming years. Heck, turning algae into fuel is easy. The basic part is just high school chemistry. So we’d be creating a new supply source for the liquid fuels industry. And we’d be able to point to at least one success story where people can agree that we all did something right.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Then the venture capitalist added that one of his startups is “working on coal-eating bugs.” He explained that “There’s a lot of coal buried so deep, or under other conditions that we can’t mine it. That coal will never get out. So why not put bugs down in the deep seams, and let them eat the coal? Then we can harvest the gases that come out the back end of the bugs, and use that as feedstock for other things.”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">At one point, one of the lunch participants turned to the silent person at the table, who was busy taking it all in and making a few discrete notes. Then came the dreaded question, “Well Byron, what do YOU think?”</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I focused my comments on geothermal development. I pointed out that for all the anti-carbon sentiment out there, the most under-appreciated, “clean and green” energy source is geothermal. There appears to be strong support for geothermal development via tax incentives and other, policy-based standards. Combine this with the growing social focus on clean, renewable energy sources.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Right now, 24 states have renewable portfolio standards (RPS) for electricity production. And Congress is leaning towards setting a national standard of 20% to 25% RPS power production by 2025. We’re at the point where a utility like California’s Pacific Gas and Electric is so desperate for “clean” energy that they’re contracting with a privately-owned company to build a satellite to harvest solar energy from space, and “beam” it back to earth.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">Many of the geothermal companies that are out there now are in relatively advanced stages of development. But the problem during the past year or so has been lack of access to capital. In other words, lack of capital is the strongest headwind to progress.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">I’ve recommended five geothermal companies to the subscribers of Energy and Scarcity…and I still like all five of these companies. They are all finding steam. They all have power purchase agreements in place. And they are all about to become players within the “clean green” energy space.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal">No matter what problems might still befall the U.S. economy, I would expect many geothermal companies to thrive. They are simply in the right place at right time.</p>
<p class="MsoNormal"><a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude/2009/05/07/clean-rhymes-with-green/">Source: Clean, Rhymes with Green </a></p>
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		<title>The Coming Takeover Boom: 3 Sectors Ripe for Mergers &amp; Acquisitions</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-coming-takeover-boom-3-sectors-ripe-for-mergers-acquisitions/15854</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-coming-takeover-boom-3-sectors-ripe-for-mergers-acquisitions/15854#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Apr 2009 17:00:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Louis Basenese</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Top Story]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bear market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Health Care Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Louis Basenese]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Private Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[tech stocks]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>On Monday, $24.8 billion worth of takeovers were announced. It was the third busiest Merger Monday on record in 2009. Yet most investors remain unimpressed…. They’re convinced it’s nothing more than a short-lived Darwinian event. Weak and unfit companies, exposed by a nasty recession, are simply being forced into the arms of the strong.</p>
<p>Or as Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Harris Private Bank puts it, “A lot of these deals are motivated by self-defense.”</p>
<p>But they’re wrong.</p>
<p>Even though this Monday wouldn’t even make the cut for the top 20 deal days during the last takeover boom (in 2007), it’s more than just a function of survival or some freak bear market anomaly.</p>
<p>Another takeover boom is brewing. Here’s how I can&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Monday, $24.8 billion worth of takeovers were announced. It was the third busiest Merger Monday on record in 2009. Yet most investors remain unimpressed…. They’re convinced it’s nothing more than a short-lived Darwinian event. Weak and unfit companies, exposed by a nasty recession, are simply being forced into the arms of the strong.</p>
<p>Or as Jack Ablin, Chief Investment Officer at Harris Private Bank puts it, “A lot of these deals are motivated by self-defense.”</p>
<p>But they’re wrong.</p>
<p>Even though this Monday wouldn’t even make the cut for the top 20 deal days during the last takeover boom (in 2007), it’s more than just a function of survival or some freak bear market anomaly.</p>
<p>Another takeover boom is brewing. Here’s how I can be so sure…</p>
<p><strong>Takeover Boom Catalyst &#8211; Private Equity </strong></p>
<p>We all know the catalyst behind any serious takeover boom is <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/research/private-equity-history.html" target="_blank">private equity</a>. Because when they’re flush with cash, competition for targets heats up and bidding wars ensure.</p>
<ul>
<li>We also know such activity sputtered along in the first quarter.</li>
<li>Only $8.7 billion worth of private-equity-led deals were completed, compared to the $57.6 billion in the first quarter of 2008, according to Dealogic.</li>
<li>Moreover, private equity fundraising &#8211; the fuel for future activity &#8211; also fell off the cliff, dropping 81%, to its lowest level in over five years.</li>
</ul>
<p>But those are only the headlines. And sadly, most investors stop there. Digging deeper, though, reveals a new trend is unfolding.</p>
<p>The number of firms hitting the pavement to raise new funds is on the rise. In January, there were 1,624 funds trying to raise $889 billion, a 25% increase from last year… and a 43% increase from 2007.</p>
<p>And they’re enjoying success.</p>
<p>Morgan Stanley raised a record-setting $1.14 billion for its Private Markets Fund IV. Abbott Capital Management also raised more than $1 billion for their latest fund.</p>
<p>In other words, the next takeover boom is incubating. And it makes perfect sense. Despite such a challenging environment, the smart money knows it’s time to make a deal…</p>
<p>Stock valuations rest at historically low levels. Financing, although hard to come by, is similarly cheap. And thanks to the bear market, every manager is amenable to a deal. In many cases, it’s their only hope at quickly restoring shareholder value.</p>
<p>So if you’re not preparing for the imminent takeover boom by investing in potential <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/research/index/profit-from-takeover-targets.html" target="_blank">takeover targets</a> now, you should be. After all, the institutional money is getting ready. And history proves the premiums will be rich and the opportunities plentiful.</p>
<p>Of course, half the battle is being prepared, like a Boy Scout. The other half is knowing where to look, a la G.I. Joe.</p>
<p><strong>An Imminent Takeover Boom In These 3 Sectors </strong></p>
<p>In my opinion, you should focus on the following three sectors because they will attract both private equity suitors and publicly traded competitors. Thus, bidding wars will erupt and premiums paid to shareholders will be the greatest.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong>Health care (specifically drug makers) &#8211; </strong>All major pharmaceutical companies are scrambling to replenish pipelines. Sure $150 billion worth of deals have already been announced this year. But the largest drug makers are still sitting on a $100 billion in cash and need to replace $84 billion in annual sales.</li>
<li><strong>Energy &#8211; </strong>As famous oilman T. Boone Pickens famously acknowledged, it’s much cheaper to drill for oil on Wall Street than in the ground. The pullback in oil and natural gas prices should entice cash-rich international giants to try to replenish reserves on the cheap.</li>
<li><strong>Technology &#8211; </strong>This is another cash-rich sector with cheap valuations and technologies becoming more essential to everyday life. At the same time, the industry heavyweights are struggling to grow organically. Acquisitions are the only quick fix. Yet private equity shops are equally eager to pounce on the high margin, high penetration products in this sector.</li>
</ul>
<p>Next week, I’ll show you how to do identify the most attractive <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/January/takeover-trader.html" target="_blank">takeover targets</a> in each sector. I’ll even include three companies at the top of my list. So stay tuned.</p>
<p>Source: <a class="post_title" href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/April/takeover-boom.html">The Coming Takeover Boom: 3 Sectors Ripe for Mergers &amp; Acquisitions </a></p>
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		<title>U.S. Nuclear Power Sector to Rebound; Will Create New Profit Plays for Energy Investors</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/us-nuclear-power-sector-to-rebound-will-create-new-profit-plays-for-energy-investors/15400</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Mar 2009 14:00:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Money Morning Staff</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nuclear Power Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peak oil]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>It’s been 30 years since the accident at Three Mile Island effectively killed the commercial nuclear power industry in the United States. But strongly escalating concerns about global warming, growing worries about so-called “Peak Oil,&#8221; and greatly improved nuclear-power technology are combining to make nuclear power an increasingly alluring option in the United States, <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> has been reporting.</p>
<p>The 30-year anniversary of the Three Mile Island accident – which occurred near Harrisburg, Pa., in the in the predawn hours of March 28, 1979 – has obviously resurrected some of these discussions. But thanks to these deep-seated and growing concerns – virtually every one of them sparked by globalization – <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123820275563962721.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" target="_blank">the  nuclear power industry is moving ahead with plans to build a&#8230;</a></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s been 30 years since the accident at Three Mile Island effectively killed the commercial nuclear power industry in the United States. But strongly escalating concerns about global warming, growing worries about so-called “Peak Oil,&#8221; and greatly improved nuclear-power technology are combining to make nuclear power an increasingly alluring option in the United States, <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> has been reporting.</p>
<p>The 30-year anniversary of the Three Mile Island accident – which occurred near Harrisburg, Pa., in the in the predawn hours of March 28, 1979 – has obviously resurrected some of these discussions. But thanks to these deep-seated and growing concerns – virtually every one of them sparked by globalization – <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123820275563962721.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" target="_blank">the  nuclear power industry is moving ahead with plans to build a string of new  reactors in the U.S. market</a>, <strong><em>The Washington Post</em></strong> reported this  weekend…</p>
<p>The revival faces many uncertainties, but will also re-open a vista of  investment opportunities for energy-sector investors.</p>
<p>The crisis that grew out of the TMI accident, in which worker error and equipment malfunctions triggered a partial meltdown in the core of one of two reactors at the Pennsylvania power plant along the Susquehanna River, was long believed to have forever ended any chance that new commercial nuclear plants would be built in the United States.</p>
<p>But nuclear power is now making a comeback – largely out of necessity.</p>
<p>The United States generates about one-fifth of its electricity from the 104 reactors now in operation – all built before the TMI accident. Utilities have applied to build 26 new reactors, many of them expansions of existing nuclear facilities, and the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), which has to approve the plans, says the first approvals could come by 2011.</p>
<p>It could take nearly a decade before any of these  approvals leads to a finished, operational nuclear plant.</p>
<p>But the revival faces tough barriers – including the multi-billion-dollar price tags of a nuclear plan today. Jone-Lin Wang, managing director of the global power group at <a href="http://www.cera.com/" target="_blank">Cambridge Energy Research  Associates</a>, a consulting firm, told <strong><em>The Post</em></strong> that plant estimates  &#8220;have gone up substantially, compared to just a few years ago.&#8221;</p>
<p>A 1,000 megawatt unit could cost $6 billion to $8 billion; since many plans call for building twin units as part of a single project, that could push the total cost up to $16 billion.</p>
<p>&#8220;For some of the companies going through the licensing process, that’s the same size as their entire market cap,&#8221; she told newspaper. And in today’s ultra-tight credit market, that could be a deal breaker.</p>
<p>Despite these uncertainties, the industry is growing again, particularly in Western Pennsylvania – a region long associated with nuclear businesses because it was the headquarters of one-time commercial-nuclear-power heavyweight Westinghouse Electric Corp., now part of Japan’s <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=TYO%3A6502" target="_blank">Toshiba Corp</a>.<br />
The Pittsburgh-based Westinghouse unit still builds and maintains reactors  [as does the United States’ General Electric Co. (<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=ge" target="_blank">GE</a>)], added 1,400 workers last year to handle the influx of business, and says it will keep adding 650 a year for the next half a decade.</p>
<p>&#8220;The recession is something everyone is paying attention to, but it doesn’t seem to be having a significant impact on us,&#8221; company spokesman Vaughn Gilbert told <strong><em>The Post.</em></strong></p>
<p>Gilbert<strong> </strong>said that Westinghouse now  has contracts to build six reactors in the United States, including a deal it  signed in January.</p>
<p>Source: <a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/03/30/investing-in-nuclear-power/">U.S. Nuclear  Power Sector to Rebound; Will Create New Profit Plays for Energy Investors</a></p>
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		<title>Alternative Energy: Why You Can’t Ignore “Green” Investing</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/alternative-energy-why-you-can%e2%80%99t-ignore-%e2%80%9cgreen%e2%80%9d-investing/14813</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 12 Mar 2009 14:00:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>David Fessler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oil Investment & Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Alternative Energy Development]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Fessler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ethanol Production]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fossil Fuel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Geothermal]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Green Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Solar Wind]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Louis Basenese is one of the smartest investment analysts I know, and a good friend of mine to boot. And most of the time I agree with his research &#8211; and his conclusions. Just not this time.</p>
<p>You see, this past Tuesday, his <em><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/"  class="alinks_links">Investment U</a></em> article caught my attention. In case you missed it, it was written about <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/green-energy.html" target="_blank">green energy</a>. In it, Louis makes an argument for a “green energy super-bubble” that could burst in as little as two or three years, leaving unwary alternative energy investors in the lurch.</p>
<p>In his article, he cites four conditions that exist that make alternative energy ripe for a bubble. Those conditions may indeed be forming, but in and of themselves won’t cause a “speculative bubble.”&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Louis Basenese is one of the smartest investment analysts I know, and a good friend of mine to boot. And most of the time I agree with his research &#8211; and his conclusions. Just not this time.</p>
<p>You see, this past Tuesday, his <em><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/"  class="alinks_links">Investment U</a></em> article caught my attention. In case you missed it, it was written about <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/green-energy.html" target="_blank">green energy</a>. In it, Louis makes an argument for a “green energy super-bubble” that could burst in as little as two or three years, leaving unwary alternative energy investors in the lurch.</p>
<p>In his article, he cites four conditions that exist that make alternative energy ripe for a bubble. Those conditions may indeed be forming, but in and of themselves won’t cause a “speculative bubble.” In this case, there’s definitely more to the story.</p>
<p><strong>The Defense of Alternative Energy &amp; Green Investing </strong></p>
<p><strong>Louis: </strong><em>“The legislation is in place, and more is on the way.”</em><strong> </strong></p>
<p>You’ll get no argument from me that Bush’s foray into increased ethanol production was misguided at best. But unlike ethanol, solar, wind and geothermal tax credits have been the catalysts that have energized those respective industries.</p>
<p>Improvements in technology have resulted in generation costs on par with &#8211; and in some cases, below &#8211; conventional fossil fuel sources. And with regard to solar in particular, costs per watt are on track to drop another 50% in the next few years. And in spite of the lower costs, industry margins will be in the 35% to 50% range, three times what they are today. That’s a recipe for increased earnings if I ever saw one.</p>
<p><strong>Louis: </strong><em>“Money is already pouring into the sector.”</em></p>
<p>The $200 billion that Louis said flowed into the sector in the last two years is about right for a capital-intensive business like <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/September/alternative-energy-the-best-investment-opportunities-of-the-century.html" target="_blank">alternative energy</a>. If it weren’t flowing into alternative energy development and deployment, where else in the energy sector would it go?</p>
<p>To pay for higher oil, for one, but perhaps it’s easier to describe where it won’t be going:</p>
<ul>
<li>No one wants a fossil fuel plant in their backyard (few are even planned, let alone being built), and you can forget about any new nuclear power plants here in the United States.</li>
<li>Only a few are even in the permit stage (a 10-year process in and of itself), construction can take 10 to 15 years, and cost $15 to $20 billion. In June 2008, <em>Moody’s</em> estimated that the cost of power produced by a nuclear plant might possibly exceed $7 per watt, <em>10 times</em> that of solar’s $0.70 per watt. And then there’s the spent fuel issue, decommissioning, etc.</li>
</ul>
<p><strong>Plenty of Room to Up Spending on Alternative Energy </strong></p>
<p>Given that the United States alone spends over $500 billion every year on foreign oil, there’s plenty of room to up the spending on alternative energies like <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/September/wind-power-why-this-renewable-energy-could-solve-the-u.s.-oil-addiction.html" target="_blank">wind power</a>.</p>
<p>Besides, we don’t really have a choice; cheap energy’s the key ingredient for economic growth. The problem with coal, oil and natural gas is that they are all finite resources, and we’ve already used all the best deposits (those with the highest energy content). Combine that with oil prices that will likely be closer to $100 a barrel by the end of the year, reigniting interest in alternatives.</p>
<p><strong>Louis: </strong><em>“Tough credit conditions actually encourage more speculation.”</em></p>
<p>I’d argue that it’s really investment we’re talking about, not speculation. Because of the tax credits mentioned earlier, many start-ups already exist &#8211; particularly in the solar sector &#8211; where no less than 143 companies are currently playing in the thin-film segment of the industry.</p>
<p>There’s no question that they won’t all survive. But those that do will have viable, long-term business supplying the world with much-needed alternatives to fossil fuels.</p>
<p><strong>Louis: </strong><em>“Green is the new black.”</em><strong> </strong></p>
<p>Here I whole-heartedly agree, but for a different reason…</p>
<p><strong>A Paradigm Shift Is Underway In Alternative Energy </strong></p>
<p>There’s a paradigm shift underway in the alternative energy sector. Fossil fuels are on their way out and green is on the way in. It’s going to be a 20- to -30-year process, and that’s why it’s destined to be such a great opportunity for investors.</p>
<p>It’s not just a “U.S. social responsibility” thing, either. In fact, it’s just the opposite. Our alternative energy roadmap is far behind those of many other nations. Take Portugal, for instance, where over 60% of their energy comes from renewable sources. Their goal? 100%. China and Germany also have aggressive alternative energy generation plans underway.</p>
<p>And because of all the government tax incentives dangled in front of the myriad companies, cost-effective solar panels and wind generators are already in use, generating power that produces no greenhouse gas, and more importantly, don’t use a drop of oil when running.</p>
<p>Here’s the bottom-line: The global need for cheap energy is so monumental, <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2008/September/alternative-energy-investments-finally-getting-the-green-light-in-2008.html" target="_blank">alternative energy</a> is destined to remain a target-rich environment for many years to come. Will some companies be better investments than others? Of course… just like they are in any other sector.</p>
<p>But a bursting bubble in two to three years? I don’t believe it. Actually, a mini one burst last year when oil dropped from $147 a barrel to where it is today, driving many solar, wind and geothermal stocks down as much as 80%. The valuations that these companies are sporting now are, in many cases, as low as they’ve ever been.</p>
<p>And that has helped to set up what could be one of the best sectors to invest in moving forward… for decades to come.</p>
<p>One thing you can be sure of: Both Louis and I will be watching it all unfold with an eye (or two, in this case) towards providing you with some great ideas for investing… and maybe for a few bragging rights.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/alternative-energy.html">Source: Alternative Energy: Why You Can’t Ignore “Green” Investing</a></p>
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		<title>Tesoro Corporation (TSO), Expand Your Portfolio with this Energy Sector Stock</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/tesoro-corporation-tso-expand-your-portfolio-with-this-energy-sector-stock/14430</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 03 Mar 2009 14:15:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Katharine Schildt</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Katharine Schildt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Petroleum Products]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TSO]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Despite lower industry profits in the quarter, this leading petroleum product refiners&#8217; margin increased 51%. Katherine Schildt of <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/"  class="alinks_links">Investment U</a> says that, &#8220;Tesoro represents a great way to keep your portfolio diversified with exposure to the energy sector.&#8221;</p>
<p>This from Katherine:</p>
<blockquote><p>While most oil companies continue to report less than desirable earnings results, one refiner recently reported improved refining margins, announcing a 51% increase from one year ago.</p>
<p>Based in San Antonio, <strong><a title="Tesero Corp. Bio" href="http://www.tsocorp.com/TSOCorp/AboutUs/PRIMARYPAGE" target="_blank">Tesero Corp</a>.</strong> (NYSE: <a title="Google Stock Page" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&#38;q=NYSE:TSO" target="_blank">TSO</a>), one of the leading independent refiners and marketers of petroleum products, reported quarterly profit of $97 million, compared with a loss of $40 million just a year earlier.</p>
<p>Yes, that’s in spite the precipitous fall in oil prices.</p>
<p>Other areas of the company’s operations saw an increase as well, including its&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Despite lower industry profits in the quarter, this leading petroleum product refiners&#8217; margin increased 51%. Katherine Schildt of <a href="http://www.investmentu.com/"  class="alinks_links">Investment U</a> says that, &#8220;Tesoro represents a great way to keep your portfolio diversified with exposure to the energy sector.&#8221;</p>
<p>This from Katherine:</p>
<blockquote><p>While most oil companies continue to report less than desirable earnings results, one refiner recently reported improved refining margins, announcing a 51% increase from one year ago.</p>
<p>Based in San Antonio, <strong><a title="Tesero Corp. Bio" href="http://www.tsocorp.com/TSOCorp/AboutUs/PRIMARYPAGE" target="_blank">Tesero Corp</a>.</strong> (NYSE: <a title="Google Stock Page" href="http://www.google.com/finance?client=ob&amp;q=NYSE:TSO" target="_blank">TSO</a>), one of the leading independent refiners and marketers of petroleum products, reported quarterly profit of $97 million, compared with a loss of $40 million just a year earlier.</p>
<p>Yes, that’s in spite the precipitous fall in oil prices.</p>
<p>Other areas of the company’s operations saw an increase as well, including its operating income, which was $196 million higher than the fourth quarter of 2007. This was in part due to success in its Hawaii and California regions, as well as improved results in retail.</p>
<p>Increased crude recipients in Los Angeles were partly responsible for the success in Tesoro’s California region. And a 10% increase in heavy crude helped its Hawaiian region report favorable earnings.</p>
<p>“The actions we’ve been taking since late in 2007 have positioned the company to succeed even in this weak market environment,” said <a title="Bio" href="http://www.answers.com/topic/bruce-a-smith" target="_blank">Bruce Smith</a>, Tesoro’s Chairman, President and CEO.</p>
<p>“While falling commodity prices did benefit our wholesale and retail marketing channels, the capital and non-capital initiatives we implemented beginning in early 2008 have enhanced our ability to deliver substantial and sustainable improvements in our capture of the available margin, and I am pleased to see these successful efforts reflected in our fourth quarter results.”</p>
<p>Tesoro was able to increase crude flexibility and distillate production, which helped its margin realization. It took great pains to take full advantage of production, which led to a 4% increase in diesel and jet fuel compared to 2007’s fourth quarter.</p>
<p>Another important aspect of Tesoro’s accomplishments in such an otherwise dreary market was its ability to decrease costs. Direct manufacturing costs were $248 million in the fourth quarter compared to $300 million in the third quarter.</p>
<p>Capital spending for the entire year was $724 million, down significantly from the $932 million it spent in 2007. It says it expects its expenses for 2009 to be around $600 million, an even better improvement than it already reported.</p>
<p>“While the strength in first quarter West Coast margins has been a pleasant surprise, we plan to continue to follow our 2009 business plan which is based on industry benchmark margins that are lower than 2008, and our expectation that we will realize continued improvement in margin capture. Our program of non-capital objectives and benefits of our 2008 income capital spending is resilient and continues to provide the platform for our organic growth opportunities,” said Smith.</p>
<p>The company has obvious investment merit. To endure the fall in oil prices from $147 a barrel to under $40 – yet still improve margins, is significant. If anything, Tesoro represents a great way to keep your portfolio diversified with exposure to the energy sector.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.investmentu.com/IUEL/2009/March/tesoro-corporation.html">Source: Tesoro Corporation (NYSE: TSO): Stock of the Day</a></p></blockquote>
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		<title>Investment Guru Jim Rogers Says Commodities are the ‘Place to Be’ Despite Their Decline</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/investment-guru-jim-rogers-says-commodities-are-the-%e2%80%98place-to-be%e2%80%99-despite-their-decline/9698</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Dec 2008 13:17:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aramco]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[black gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crb Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Global Recession]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gold Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Nymex]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Saudi Arabia]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Commodity prices have plunged from the record highs they hit  earlier this year, but in a recent interview with <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong>, investing guru Jim Rogers said he is still bullish on commodities, which he expects to take off as soon as the clouds of the global recession lift. </p>
<p>The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has fallen more than 54% from its July peak and is now at its lowest level in six years. Oil spearheaded the decline, with light, sweet crude for January delivery dropping $2.36, or 5.4%, to settle at $41.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Black gold has tumbled 71% since peaking at a record high of $147 a barrel in July.</p>
<p>Actual gold is&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Commodity prices have plunged from the record highs they hit  earlier this year, but in a recent interview with <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong>, investing guru Jim Rogers said he is still bullish on commodities, which he expects to take off as soon as the clouds of the global recession lift. </p>
<p>The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index of 19 commodities has fallen more than 54% from its July peak and is now at its lowest level in six years. Oil spearheaded the decline, with light, sweet crude for January delivery dropping $2.36, or 5.4%, to settle at $41.31 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange Friday. Black gold has tumbled 71% since peaking at a record high of $147 a barrel in July.</p>
<p>Actual gold is down 27% from its record high of $1,032 an ounce, reached in March. Prices for other commodities such as copper, zinc, platinum and corn have shared in the decline as well.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=a_Szftxn_oQk" target="_blank">Everybody  is just trying to get out of the markets</a>,” Michael Aronstein, president of  Marketfield Asset Management, told <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong>. “People are exiting  as fast as they can.” Everybody except Jim Rogers, that is.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&amp;sid=adVtKx5tyEnA" target="_blank">Commodities  will be the place to be if and when we come out of</a>” the recession, Rogers  said an interview with <strong><em>Bloomberg</em></strong>. “The only thing where  fundamentals are unimpaired are commodities.”</p>
<p>Rogers reasons that underinvestment will lead to a supply  crunch in commodities that will send prices soaring.</p>
<p>“Farmers cannot get loans for fertilizer now. Nobody can get a loan to open a zinc mine,” he said. “So we are going to have some serious, serious supply problems before too much longer.”</p>
<p>In an interview with <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links">Money Morning</a></em></strong> earlier this year, Rogers pointed to a lack of investment and production in the energy sector as a main reason for oil’s run-up in price.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/04/15/jim-rogers-chinas-economic-advance-is-all-but-unstoppable/" target="_blank">Every  oil country in the world has declining reserves except Saudi Arabia</a>,” Rogers said. “And I know that every oil company has declining reserves.  So unless somebody discovers a lot of oil very quickly in very accessible areas, the surprise is going to be how high the price stays, and how high it goes.”</p>
<p>Now that the global recession has stomped down crude prices, oil companies no longer have the incentive or the funding to develop new sources. Earlier this year, for instance, ConocoPhilips (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACOP" target="_blank">COP</a>) and <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=11549529" target="_blank">Saudi Arabian Investment  Co.</a> (ARAMCO) were forced to postpone bidding on the construction of a 400,000-barrels-per-day (bpd) export refinery at the Yanbu Industrial City.</p>
<p>&#8220;<a href="http://www.financialpost.com/analysis/story.html?id=4ed6ac2d-559f-4224-989a-5b3fdd1eb445" target="_blank">We  see and hear about energy investments being delayed</a>… This is a major worry and could lead to a supply crunch and much higher oil prices than we’ve seen before,&#8221; Fatih Birol, the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) chief economist, told journalists in London last month.</p>
<p>The IEA says oil demand will rise 1.6% a year on average between 2006 and 2030. That means demand will rise from the current level of 85 million bpd to 106 million bpd.</p>
<p>To meet that demand, the agency estimates the world needs $26.3 trillion in supply-side investment over the next 21 years. About 7 million bpd of additional capacity needs to added to the market by 2015, the agency said.</p>
<p>Gold is another commodity that could make another  record-breaking run.</p>
<p>Demand for the yellow metal <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/11/21/gold-prices-3/" target="_blank">actually increased  by a record 45%</a> from the second quarter to the third this year.</p>
<p>“I own some gold,” Rogers told Bloomberg. “And if gold goes down I’ll buy some more and if gold goes up I’ll buy some more. Gold during the course of the bull market, which has several more years to go, will go much higher.”</p>
<p><a class="titleref" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/12/08/jim-rogers-3/">Investment Guru Jim Rogers Says Commodities are the ‘Place  to Be’ Despite Their Decline</a></p>
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		<title>Oil Stocks May Never Be This Cheap Again</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-stocks-may-never-be-this-cheap-again/8445</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/oil-stocks-may-never-be-this-cheap-again/8445#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Nov 2008 13:32:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Greg Gunner Guenthner</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Oil Investment & Alternative Energy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Big Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[COP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[energy news]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Greg Guenthner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Major Oil Companies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oil Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PXD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[XOM]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Oil is still one of the best bets for long-term gains says <strong>Greg Guenthner</strong>. In the midst of blind market panic, investors are forgetting that crude is a finite resource facing unquenchable demand. It will rise to record highs again. And when it does, oil stocks will soar.</p>
<p>This from The <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude/"  class="alinks_links">Rude Awakening</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>During times like these, it’s all too easy to become caught up in the moment. Fear is a powerful emotion. As the markets continue to crumble, many investors lose sight of their goals. They sell positions indiscriminately; they become irrational.</p>
<p>The sell-off we’re experiencing right now is global. And no stock or commodity has escaped the devastation. That’s why we’re looking at a scarce and valuable resource for steady long-term&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oil is still one of the best bets for long-term gains says <strong>Greg Guenthner</strong>. In the midst of blind market panic, investors are forgetting that crude is a finite resource facing unquenchable demand. It will rise to record highs again. And when it does, oil stocks will soar.</p>
<p>This from The <a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude/"  class="alinks_links">Rude Awakening</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p>During times like these, it’s all too easy to become caught up in the moment. Fear is a powerful emotion. As the markets continue to crumble, many investors lose sight of their goals. They sell positions indiscriminately; they become irrational.</p>
<p>The sell-off we’re experiencing right now is global. And no stock or commodity has escaped the devastation. That’s why we’re looking at a scarce and valuable resource for steady long-term gains: oil.</p>
<p>One energy guru recently made a big bet on oil. He repurchased shares of <strong>Exxon</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=XOM">XOM</a>), <strong>ConocoPhillips </strong>(NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ConocoPhillips">COP</a>), <strong>Pioneer Natural Resources</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Pioneer+Natural+Resources">PXD</a>), <strong>BP</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bp">BP</a>) and <strong>Statoil</strong> (NYSE:<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:STO">STO</a>) — all at rock-bottom prices. We say he RE-purchased these shares because, in a prescient move, this sage sold off every oil stock he owned in May…back when oil was sitting atop $129 per barrel.</p>
<p>Richard Rainwater knew he would be leaving the party a bit early to the party — and probably miss the top — when he sold his oil investments back in spring. But he also knew that the gains from his $300 million invested in oil stocks and futures were in jeopardy.</p>
<p>“I just felt that America was not ready for $4 gas and we would see a pause here,” he told Time magazine in June.</p>
<p>Rainwater cashed in his profits just before oil’s peak in July. Now, he’s ready to do it all over again, spreading his millions across Exxon, ConocoPhillips and other big-name petroleum pushers.</p>
<p>Rainwater’s outlook is simple: Increased worldwide demand will continue to push the oil price up in the long term. Rainwater’s not alone, either. Analysts and industry experts — like oil tycoon T. Boone Pickens and OPEC President Chakib Khelil — have been making it perfectly clear…oil won’t be down too long.<br />
On July 11, 2008, oil made a record ascent to $147.27 — a 123% jump in only 12 months. Since that momentous event, however, it has been all downhill for the energy sector. As the nearby chart illustrates, oil stocks (yellow line) have been closely tracking the downward trajectory of crude oil (blue line).</p>
<p><img src="http://www.ezimages.net/upload/RUDESUBS/oilRian.gif" alt="" /></p>
<p>With oil sitting below $60 right now, oil aficionados like Pickens are bracing for the run-up to come. “The Saudis claim they have more oil; they don’t. The president wasted his time to go to Saudi Arabia, to say, ‘Give us more oil.’ They can’t give any more oil…they’re stacking up the money as fast as they can stack it up,” warned Pickens in an interview with CNBC.</p>
<p>The allure of oil is hard to refute. With finite supplies and unquenchable demand, it’s clear why many investment houses put oil above $200 in the near future. According to Pickens, it’s just a case of an oil-hungry economy overwhelming producers: “Eighty-five million barrels of oil a day is all the world can produce, and the demand is 87 million. It’s just that simple. It doesn’t have anything to do with the value of the dollar.”</p>
<p>Now is the time to buy oil. The second quarter of 2008 saw the largest drop in oil prices in 17 years. Now with OPEC slashing its production outlook for the rest of 2008 and 2009, it’s unclear just how long prices will be able to stay under $100…much less under $57.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.agorafinancial.com/afrude/2008/11/13/surviving-the-selloff/">Source: Surviving the Selloff</a></p>
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		<title>How To Profit From Political Games In Eastern Europe</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/how-to-profit-from-political-games-in-eastern-europe/7966</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Nov 2008 18:22:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Andrew Snyder</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[International Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew Snyder]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Eastern Europe]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ECB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Energy Sector]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[European Stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[International Investment]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investing in Russia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russia energy]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p><strong>Andrew Snyder</strong> says Democrat-fearing investors are now looking overseas for profits. Andrew says Eastern Europe is a hotbed of political conflict. But that could end up creating great money-making opportunities in the energy sector.</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>What impact will rising taxes, stronger labor unions and increased regulations have on the country’s publicly traded corporations? Well, if today’s trading activity is any indication of what the future holds, we are in for a long road to recovery.</p>
<p>Some investors are taking this as an opportunity to look overseas.</p>
<p>India and the fairly limited impact the global economic crisis has played on the country has been a safe haven for some savvy investors. Even Australia is getting plenty of American investment dollars now that&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><strong>Andrew Snyder</strong> says Democrat-fearing investors are now looking overseas for profits. Andrew says Eastern Europe is a hotbed of political conflict. But that could end up creating great money-making opportunities in the energy sector.</p>
<p>This from Today&#8217;s Financial News:</p>
<blockquote><p>What impact will rising taxes, stronger labor unions and increased regulations have on the country’s publicly traded corporations? Well, if today’s trading activity is any indication of what the future holds, we are in for a long road to recovery.</p>
<p>Some investors are taking this as an opportunity to look overseas.</p>
<p>India and the fairly limited impact the global economic crisis has played on the country has been a safe haven for some savvy investors. Even Australia is getting plenty of American investment dollars now that many of its mining stocks are dirt cheap.</p>
<p>While all of these investing notions are solid, international investors can do better. One region you should keep your eye on is Eastern Europe. There is a lot of political activity heating up in the area and smart investors will be able to take advantage of the action.</p>
<p><strong>The fighting never stops</strong></p>
<p>We all know Russia and Georgia are far from good friends right now. They are battling over many issues, but one undeniable fighting point is energy. Russia’s financial stability depends on selling oil and natural gas to its western neighbors at a premium.</p>
<p>But just like you and I do not like paying absurd amounts for our fuel, neither do countries like Georgia. That is why they are hurriedly trying to build out their own supplies. Countries like Turkey, Hungary, Georgia, and Kazakhstan are quickly realizing they are sitting on some very valuable energy reserves.</p>
<p>This does not make Russia happy.</p>
<p>But as investors, we need to look at this situation, not as a political mess, but as a great investing opportunity. Tiny, government-backed companies are about to be sitting on huge windfalls. The kind our new administration would love to tax… but can’t.</p>
<p>America may be getting a new administration that is not too happy with Wall Street, but that does not mean our days of successful investing our over. In fact, I believe there are more profit opportunities today than there were yesterday. You just have to know where to look.</p>
<p>My colleagues and I are currently researching and examining the situation in Eastern Europe. Look for our conclusions very soon.</p></blockquote>
<p><a href="http://www.todaysfinancialnews.com/international-investing/obama-presidency-investors-head-overseas-5270.html">Source: Obama Presidency: Investors flee overseas</a></p>
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