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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; EOC</title>
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		<title>Chilean Businessmen, More Pessimistic than Ever</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/chilean-businessmen-more-pessimistic-than-ever/2889</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/chilean-businessmen-more-pessimistic-than-ever/2889#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 05 Jun 2008 21:42:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Horacio Pozzo</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Argentina]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Central Bank Of Chile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chile]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chilean Economy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chilean Monetary Policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chilean Peso]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Depreciation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ENDESA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EOC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[IMCE]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[investment idea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Month Of April]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Of Copper]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rate Of Inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[SIC]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Siemens]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/chilean-businessmen-more-pessimistic-than-ever/2889</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday I wrote to you about the pessimism within the Argentine business community. However, Argentine businessmen are not the only ones in a bad mood… The Chilean businessmen are also more than a little bit worried about the situation the Chilean economy is going through.</p>
<p>Buenos Aires, Argentina  June 5, 2008</p>
<p>In 2007, the strong appreciation of the Chilean peso had been the central preoccupation of the Chilean businessmen.  In the last few months, active policies initiated by the Central Bank of Chile, coupled with a fall in the international price of copper and a strengthening in the worldwide value of the dollar have noticeably depreciated the value of the Chilean peso.   In fact, the Chilean peso is the currency that depreciated&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday I wrote to you about the pessimism within the Argentine business community. However, Argentine businessmen are not the only ones in a bad mood… The Chilean businessmen are also more than a little bit worried about the situation the Chilean economy is going through.<span id="more-2889"></span></p>
<p>Buenos Aires, Argentina  June 5, 2008</p>
<p>In 2007, the strong appreciation of the Chilean peso had been the central preoccupation of the Chilean businessmen.  In the last few months, active policies initiated by the Central Bank of Chile, coupled with a fall in the international price of copper and a strengthening in the worldwide value of the dollar have noticeably depreciated the value of the Chilean peso.   In fact, the Chilean peso is the currency that depreciated the most against the dollar in the month of May.</p>
<p>This depreciation in the rate of exchange must have created a certain level of calm for Chilean businessmen. But while the exchange rate adjusted to the situation, other negative factors attacked the way in which businesses operate.  For this reason, businessmen were unable to take full advantage of the improvement in the rate of exchange.</p>
<p>Inflation is perhaps having the worst effect on the Chilean economy at the present time, with a year-on-year rise of 8.3% for the month of April.  Meanwhile, the Central Bank of Chile has as its goal an increase of only 3%, with a margin of 1% either direction.  While the rate of inflation has been harming the Chilean economy, it has been partially offset by an improvement in the overall competitiveness of the economy.</p>
<p>The issue of inflation is causing Chilean monetary policy to move in a more restrictive direction for the next few months.  This is why on May 8, during the last meeting of the Council of the Central Bank of Chile, it was discussed whether to maintain or raise the interest rate from its current level of 6.25%.</p>
<p>Even worse, the price of fuel has continued to rise and it is effecting the costs of production.  The price of fuel is continuing to rise, and has already reached its highest level since 2001.  Yesterday 120,000 trucks were lined up on a highway in a show of protest over this increase in the price of fuels.  The government of Chile had injected $1 billion to create a Stabilization Fund for Fuels. However this has not persuaded the truck drivers to halt their protests.</p>
<p>Chilean businessmen are pessimistic, and with good cause, for they are finding themselves in a time of inflation while at the same time the Central Bank is insinuating that an increase in interest rates would adversely affect internal demand.   And to make matters worse, Chile’s problems regarding power have been aggravated in the last few days by the cancellation of gas shipments from Argentina.</p>
<p>It is for that reason that business confidence finds itself at a historical low point in Chile.  In fact, according to the Monthly Indicator of Business Confidence (IMCE), the perspective for commerce, construction, industry and mining fell to 53.4 points in May, the lowest level for that month since this registry was created. Logically, the most pessimistic area is the industrial sector for which indicator IMCE showed a value of 47.2.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, in spite of the general pessimism of businessmen, one can still find companies with good prospects for growth.  Such is the case with the Empresa Nacional de Electricidad SA, (NYSE: EOC).  During the first quarter of this year, ENDESA Chile reported earnings of  $77,649 million (U$S 160 million) which represents a year-on-year variation of 44.5% (although principally due to increases that were not the result of operating costs).</p>
<p>Although the operating costs of ENDESA Chile have been affected by the low water levels and the high amount of fuel purchased in Chile, adequate commercial policies and the emergence of highly efficient stock portfolios have created a situation offsetting the effects of those factors somewhat. And all of this allows ENDESA Chile to be in a suitable position not only to face its next challenges, but also to transform them into opportunities for growth.</p>
<p>ENDESA is initiating diverse projects of investment that are mainly in Chile, Colombia and Peru. Also it has planned investment projects in Argentina.</p>
<p>In the middle of January of 2008, ENDESA Chile’s San Isidro II power station closed its combined cycle with a total power load of 353 MW.  In 2009, once liquefied natural gas (LNG) is available in Chile, the plant will reach a total production level of 377 MW. The projected figures for the early portion of 2008 serve as an endorsement of Chile’s local electrical production ability.  Another important contribution made by ENDESA to Chile’s power supply for the next few years is the installation, this past March, of the N°1 unit of the Taltal power station.  This station has a capacity of producing 120 MW of power, using a diesel engine. Additionally, ENDESA is participating in the initiative of the Government to diversify the electrical grid through a project entitled GNL Quintero.</p>
<p>In January of this year, ENDESA signed a contract in Peru with Siemens Power Generation, to install a turbine that produces 183 MW of power in Santa Rosa plant.  This project required an investment of approximately U$S 90 million.  In Colombia, ENDESA is considering bidding for a public contract for energy and power programs for this year in that market by means of the development of a hydroelectric power station, capable of producing 400 MW, in Quimbo located upstream from the Betania Station.  In Argentina, through its branches, Endesa Costanera S.A. and Hidroeléctrica El Chocón S.A., the company has realized an  investment of U$S 160 million, that includes a U$S 42 million loan.   This means ENDESA has a participation level of 21% of the thermoelectric societies of José de San Martín S.A. and Termoeléctrica Manuel Belgrano S.A. (with each of them producing combined cycles of 800 MW each).</p>
<p>Additionally, ENDESA Chile is a company that has a strong commitment regarding the environment through its development of projects using non-conventional renewable energies (ERNC) through its ENDESA branch Echo. It has a wind power-generating park named Canela that has been in commercial operation since December of 2007 that contributes 18.15 MW to the Central Interconnected System (SIC), Chile’s national energy grid.   Also, ENDESA is committed to the acquisition of adjacent lands for the development of an immediate extension of around 60 additional MW to the park.</p>
<p>ENDESA Chile is a good company to bet on as an investment as a medium to long-term addition to one’s investment portfolio.</p>
<p>We will meet again tomorrow,</p>
<p>Horacio Pozzo</p>
<p>Editor’s Note: in Chile, businessmen seem to have been infected by the same mood as their Argentine colleagues. Although the reasons that affect the growth of both countries are almost the same, the origin of the problems and the search for solutions vary.  The recommendation of the week. You can send your comments to me at:  <a href="paola@latinforme.com">paola@latinforme.com</a></p>
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