As such, last week’s report showing that consumer credit grew by $15 billion was widely heralded as proof of America’s economic strength and resilience.

The reality is very different, however: We’re already suffering from the after-effects of too much debt, meaning that our salvation cannot be found in more of the same.

Death by a Thousand Charge Slips

Credit card debt, which now stands at whopping $957 billion nationally (approximately $3,000 for every U.S. citizen) has, in recent years, taken on a different role in the life of American consumers.

In the past, credit cards were used primarily to purchase big-ticket items, enabling consumers to spread the costs out over many months, making goods a bit more affordable.

Now, however, charge cards are increasingly being used to bridge the gap between cost of living and the diminishing purchasing power of Americans who have been taxed mercilessly by inflation. By buying with available credit instead of unavailable cash, consumers are not simply postponing the pain of higher prices, but compounding it by packing interest expenses into the costs of everyday purchases. In addition, as home equity credit is now unavailable to fund large purchases, many consumers are turning to non-deductible, higher-cost credit card debt as their last remaining lifeline. As such, credit card debt compounds steadily, and for many borrowers, becomes increasingly impossible to pay down.

The statistics tell the tale. According to Equifax Inc. (EFX) a credit card analysis firm, people have been buying more with their credit cards but paying down less. As a result, average balances jumped nearly 9% in 2007 and delinquency rates recently hit a four-year high of 4.5%.

Also, the reliance on credit cards is preventing some of the market’s salutary forces from working. With credit always an option, domestic demand remains strong – despite rising prices. Absent the option of putting more costly gasoline on their credit cards, Americans might have actually been forced to cut back on their fuel consumption, taking some of the upward pressure off gas prices.

It should be painfully obvious that expanded consumer credit is actually evidence of deterioration – not improvement. Unfortunately, when it comes to understanding the economy, there is little common sense on display. By going even deeper into debt just to make ends meet, American consumers are digging themselves, and our entire economy, into an ever-deeper economic hole and laying the foundation for the next major credit debacle. It’s fitting that just as both U.S. Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson and JP Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Chief Executive Officer Jamie Dimon declared that the worst of the crisis has past, we are on the verge of kicking this credit mess into a much-higher gear.

My guess is that many Americans continue to run up massive credit card debt because they have little intention of ever paying it off. Since many who are underwater on their home loans, and behind on their auto and student loans, too, see bankruptcy as a foregone conclusion, they see no reason not to just go ahead and pile on as much debt as possible while the taps remain open.

Those choking on credit-card debt may also be taking cheer from the gathering government campaign to bail out over-leveraged homeowners. The sheer numbers of consumers who are afflicted with spiraling monthly payments will make credit card relief a potent political issue for crusading congressional and presidential candidates. After all, there are few fundamental differences between those who borrowed too much to buy houses and those who made the same mistake with consumer goods.

If the government bails out the former, then why not the latter, as well? In fact, one reason some homeowners have such large mortgages is that they consolidated their credit card debts into their mortgages each time they refinanced. Why should renters be forced to pay off their credit card debts while homeowners get to have their debts forgiven?

It’s certainly a fair question.

But it may also be moot. Soon, as credit-card delinquencies rise – and losses on pools of securitized credit card debt mount – those supplying the credit will finally get wise to the fact they will never get their money back. As a result, the market for such debt will dry up even more quickly than did the market for subprime mortgages. Credit cards will therefore be much harder to come by and will have much lower limits then they do today. Limited to only the cash in their wallets, Americans finally will be forced to dramatically curtail their spending, and the recession will finally gather serious momentum.

[Editor’s Note: For a more-detailed analysis of the nation’s financial problems, and the inherent dangers they pose for both the U.S. economy and for dollar-denominated investments, click here to download Schiff’s new financial-research report, "The Collapsing Dollar: The Powerful Case for Investing in Foreign Securities." The report is free of charge].

Source: That Ticking Noise You Hear in Your Wallet is a Credit Card Time Bomb

The largest independent auto-finance company lost $300 million last year on its $25 billion auto loan portfolio as defaults rose higher than 7%. What will be next? Credit cards.

Even though interest rates on credit-card debt are sky high, the minimum payments are small, which is allowing people to keep borrowing. At least for now.

Equifax (a leading credit bureau) reports total credit-card balances increased 8.1% in the first quarter of this year – more than double the previous average rate of growth. Naturally, the steepest increases in credit-card borrowing occurred in the same states where the mortgage crisis is the worst. Credit-card balances rose nearly 15% in the first quarter in California and Florida and more than 20% in Nevada.

Like drug addicts, consumers cannot survive without more and more credit, and they’re now turning to the most expensive and unreliable source. They will soon hit bottom.

In the latest issue of my newsletter, PSIA, I tell my subscribers how to profit from the coming collapse of U.S. credit-card debt, which now stands at $1 trillion. If you never read another issue of my letter, make sure you read this one. Click here to learn about a risk-free subscription.

Interested in trend following? Ed Seykota, the system-trading pioneer, composed a bluegrass song outlining the basics of his strategy. Check out The Whipsaw Song here.

Oil prices hit an intraday record above $115 a barrel this week, and Jeff Clark is perfectly positioned to profit from the move. In Advanced Income, Jeff found the one undervalued oil sector: refiners. While every other oil stock is trading at all-time highs, refiners are at 10-year lows.

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Energy costs rose 2.9% last month, while food prices rose 1.2%. The Fed cuts interest rates 100 basis points and injects more than $100 billion to prop up the liars and cheats on Wall Street, and I’m paying $5 for a box of cereal and nearly $4 for a gallon of gas. But maybe I’ll soon be paying a little less for gasoline…

It says right here in the Wall Street Journal Republican presidential candidate John McCain wants Congress to put a temporary halt on the 18.4-cent federal gas tax and 24.4-cent diesel tax from Memorial Day to Labor Day.

Tax cuts are the only true economic stimulus the government can offer. Everything else it does is merely a redistribution of seized wealth or a manipulation of the money supply.

China’s sovereign wealth fund recently invested $2 billion in oil major BP. A Chinese investment could soon become the ultimate contrary indicator…

In the past year, Chinese government-controlled entities invested $5 billion in Morgan Stanley, bought 9.9% of Bear Stearns (at around $150 per share), and invested $3 billion in Blackstone Group at the top in private equity.

Our favorite commodities bull, Jim Rogers, had a front-page Barron’s interview recently. Rogers told the same story (long agriculture/China, short banks), but gave some specific stocks this time.

He’s still short investment banks through the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD). He’s short Citigroup (C) and Fannie Mae (FNM). He’s also short some U.S. homebuilders, including Lennar (LEN). Meanwhile, he’s a big fan of international airlines like Lufthansa, Austrian Airlines, and Japan Airlines. He’s bullish on the renminbi, and his only exposure to emerging markets is through China and Taiwan.

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Regards,

Porter Stansberry and Dan Ferris