A month ago, I asked my colleagues at TFN to think about the year ahead… the events that will shape the year both politically and financially. In short, to come up with realistic “Predictions for 2009″. As history is fast-forwarding, some of these events have already taken place. Others look increasingly probable… and not half as far out as they appeared just a month ago.

Here they are, in no particular order

*** Dollar hits parity against euro by June 2009.

*** Oil bottoms at $12 per barrel by April 2009.

*** Gold falls to $500 as Indian economy crashes and Dubai abandons spending spree.

*** Russian troops wearing Gazprom uniforms invade Ukraine to “protect” natural gas pipeline. The Russian stock market collapses. Three European energy stocks soar. (Yes, there’s still time to buy!)

*** US inflation dips to zero; interest rates too.

*** US unemployment hits 10% by January, 15% by April

*** Despite $25 billion in loans, GM files for bankruptcy

*** Abu Dhabi, Dubai and Bahrain abandon building projects for lack of credit and crashing oil revs. “Tower of Babel Syndrome”

*** China hit by bad loan scandal, excessive government spending, faltering exports, rampant inflation, civil unrest

*** China turns aggressive toward Taiwan, buoyed by pacifist White House

*** Australia and Canada have credit rating slashed, economies hit hard; currencies plummet

*** Junior mining companies, green energy tech, and marginal oil exploration (shale, sands, deep sea) go bankrupt by the hundreds

*** France jockeys for superpower position within EU

*** Major terrorist attack on US soil; Obama declares national emergency, establishes National Security Force

*** MRSA epidemic turns deadly

*** The healthcare industry will be burdened by increasing costs and regulations. But this news has been discounted for several months. Instead of trying to pick the winners and the losers in the industry, play a sector-wide ETF likes VHT and XLV. Short Big Pharma as companies are hit by government-backed liability suits and new influence of the trial lawyer lobby; watch anti-business courts penalize companies for research and development.

*** Obama will raise the cap gains rate to 30%, knocking out new capital inflows into market, triggering stampede of asset sales as investors rush to avoid Obama’s doubling of the tax rates next year.

***US Economy turns European: Unemployment extends towards double-digit territory. Wages drop and Washington creates massive infrastructure spending initiatives and corporate incentives to bring manufacturing back within American borders. Efforts fail because no company would want to do major capital investments in a country w/ 60+% income taxes, unfirable workers, compulsory health insurance even for temps. Despite showcase infrastructure projects, lack of community tax base and dying private initiatibve, American cities start looking like East Baltimore.

***  Tata Motors aready bought Jaguar & Range Rover: Maybe now it will buy Ford or GM? Detroit gets its bailout, but it is not enough to keep GM from asking for more. The core assets of the company are bought by a better-positioned rival like Volkswagen and its pension burden is dumped on the federal government. Car dealerships, at least the ones still around, are empty. You have to blow the dust off the windshield to see the sticker price. Major dealers like AN go bankrupt as they are too big to hide from the storm.

***US Auto parts industry goes bankrupt as its main customers wither. Foreign manufactures  like Wonder Auto thrive as used cars require increased maintenance.

*** Churches will see greatly increased attendance. Alcoholism and drug abuse will rise. Crime will be out of control in many suburban neighborhoods (racial tensions). Buy a gun and invest in VICEX. Casinos go broke for lack of travel, penny-ante online gambling runs rampant.

*** The value of the American dollar continues to gain strength. Boeing sees large forex bonus as it gets back in business. U.S. exporters are reeling from the double hit of global recession and increased cost to overseas customers.

*** No action is  taken against Iran, even during a military attack on Israel. The withdrawal from Iraq will be rapid, followed by withdrawal from Afghanistan and abandonment of the region to Taliban, Russia & China. Millions of dead in subsequent Iraqi civil war. Nobel Prize for Peace 2010 goes to Obama & Ahmadinejad as Shiites commit genocide in Iraq.

Source: Major Financial Events and Developments of 2009

This from Money Morning:

There clearly are countries – such as the United States and much of the European Union – that are going to collapse into recession, even if only unofficially. But this doesn’t necessarily have to evolve into a global recession – a position that most of the traditional Wall Street establishment disagrees with, by the way.

Let’s take a look at several of Wall Street’s current misconceptions – and see why I’m selectively bullish:

• The Red Dragon (China) is ready to hibernate: Wall Street is worried that a U.S.-induced recession will slay the Red Dragon. There’s no way. If a country can fall into a recession when its economy (as measured by gross domestic product, or GDP) is advancing at a 9.6% clip – at a time when its U.S. counterpart will be lucky to eke out a 1.0% growth rate – well, I’ll eat my hat. The Armani Army, in its infinite wisdom, is worried about a recession in China even though its $1.9 trillion in foreign reserves are more than 32.10% of GDP and external debt is a miniscule 7.6% of GDP (external debt is defined as the amount of debt that China owes external creditors, including consumers, central governments and commercial institutions, according to the CIA Fact Book). By contrast, the U.S. reserves are 4.84% of GDP, while external debt is 84%. The United Kingdom and Switzerland are in even worse shape, with external debt of 382.2% and 279.1%, respectively.
• China won’t be able to survive a drop-off in exports to the United States: Then there’s the myth of China’s export economy. The last time China took a header and export business dropped by 35%, its GDP dropped by less than 1%. I’m betting it will be an even smaller bump this time around, especially since China’s middle class now is increasingly responsible for internal growth – independent of what China exports to the rest of the world.
• The Asian economies are an economic train wreck just waiting to happen: This was true a decade ago, when the United States and Western Europe held all the cash. But no longer. Today, nations such as Singapore, Thailand and Malaysia are running trade surpluses. So is Canada. That suggests that the currencies of these countries are significantly undervalued at a time when their economies are increasingly tied to that of China. What does that tell us? Today, China is the growth engine of Asia; tomorrow, it will be the growth engine of the world.
• The U.S. economy remains the financial center of the world: Today, an estimated 78% of global economic activity takes place outside U.S. borders, which means that even in a recession, an increasing amount of capital circulates beyond the U.S. shores. Indeed, the U.S. stock market now represents less than 30% of total world market capitalization, down from roughly 45% as recently as 2004. Don’t be surprised to see the United States continue to decline in economic relevance. One day, the lion’s share of the financial trades will take place beyond U.S.  borders.
• Because it’s a developed market, the United States remains the world’s safest and most promising place to profit: In the 1980s, the United States accounted for one-third of the global economy; by 2030, that ratio will be cut in half. The reality is that U.S. investors who want to be successful in the years to come will have to learn all they can about markets whose names they can’t yet pronounce.

Wall Street may not agree, but the real adage to embrace and remember is this one: It’s easier to become No. 1 than it is to stay there.

There’s no doubt that the “experts” who are projecting that the world markets will decline further and perhaps even collapse will take issue with my analysis. But it’s important to note that I agree with you – at least in the near-term. Barring a governmentally induced Hail Mary, I think there’s no question that the worst remains ahead of us.

But longer term – I’m talking three, five to 10 years – I am intrigued by the fact that so many emerging markets have collapsed in the chaos, even though the underlying economies haven’t really changed. Everything we know about financial markets history and changes in market behavior suggests that countries backed by high cash reserves tend to emerge from periods of market chaos faster – and stronger – than the economies that had been at the top of the heap when the crisis first struck. [For some insight into which countries have the biggest reserves as a percentage of GDP, take a close look at the accompanying chart].

Where does that leave us? Well, in spite of what Wall Street would have us believe about the Red Dragon, this cash-reserves indicator suggests that China – and countries that have close economic ties with that country – may actually be getting more attractively valued (and not less) by the minute. That’s especially true for longer-term investors.

As for the types of investments that seem most promising, given the troubled times we live in, keep focused on the simple ones. As I’ve long suggested, such simple profit plays have always played well during periods of similar market turmoil. So there’s no reason to believe it will be any different this time around.

After all, the financial history books are filled with notable examples of real earnings and real products enjoying success over long periods of time. Particularly when those profits are being generated by companies focusing on such basic societal needs as energy or infrastructure. Barring a complete collapse in the oil business (or any perfect substitute that’s eventually developed), energy, commodities and infrastructure companies will continue to offer solid upsides.

Source: How to be “Selectively Bullish” – Even in the Face of Financial Crisis

This from The Sovereign Society:

Last week, tax-hungry officials from the increasingly socialist countries of Germany and France declared another round in their long running war on Switzerland.

Their aim once again was against traditional Swiss bank secrecy, which the Franco-German politicians claim is little more than a cover for massive tax evasion. As usual, they didn’t offer any proof for this claim.

Over several centuries and during two World Wars, peaceful Switzerland always has maintained its traditional neutrality. It’s kept out of numerous wars involving both France and Germany, usually with the latter attacking the former.

The last time a war of sorts was declared against Switzerland was in George and Ira Geshwin’s 1930 Broadway musical hit, Strike Up the Band. In the musical, the plot centered on a Babbitt-like American cheese tycoon who tries to maintain his monopoly on the U.S. market by convincing the United States government to declare war on Switzerland.

I suspect that the current effort by France and Germany will be just about as successful, (but much less entertaining), as Gershwin’s spirited musical militarism.

Another Skirmish – Another Show!

Reacting to these renewed pressure from European Union officials, the Swiss government vehemently defended its tax system and its financial privacy.

This may look just like another episode in the decade-old, anti-Swiss political road show, but there’s one new tactic. This time, EU cronies are using the current world economic disruptions as bogus proof that tax havens cause recessions! Please.

Tax-hungry politicians have repeatedly criticized Switzerland for its low taxation and banking secrecy laws. Biased critics claim that these laws provide European citizens with loopholes for evading taxes in their own countries.

Naturally, these anti-Swiss demagogues ignore the fact that Switzerland participates fully in the EU tax directive program. This means Swiss officials already collect taxes from foreign account holders and pay it to their home EU governments.

The most recent criticism coincides with a rapidly spreading global financial crisis that has prompted governments worldwide to spend billions of dollars to bailout ailing banks. With a recession looming in the U.S. and Europe, governments are grasping at any straw to stop a sharp fall in tax income.

Swiss Banks Don’t Know the Meaning of the Word “Surrender”

Economists doubt, however, Switzerland will give up its banking secrecy or radically adjust its tax laws. They’re saying the country is strong enough to defend itself against the EU’s complaints. They note that Switzerland, as a member of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), can effectively veto any decision by the OECD to blacklist it.

According to EU estimates, the world’s tax havens, not including Switzerland, have attracted around US$5 trillion to US$7 trillion in assets because of low or nonexistent taxation. Swiss banks manage around US$4 trillion in assets, about 50% from foreign individuals and institutions.

At present, only three European countries (God bless them!) – Liechtenstein, Monaco and Andorra – are on the OECD’s tax haven blacklist.

Source: Life Imitates Art: War Declared on Switzerland

The $140bn BHP Billiton move on Rio Tinto first appeared on the boards back in February. “Await documents” has been flashing ever since. There is absolutely no hope of BHP’s offer for Rio even reaching official posting stage for months.

Like any frustrated traveller, investors need some idea of what is happening. Actually there is more hope here than with BAA. At last there has been one decisive step. Being loudly broadcast is the fact that a vital regulatory stage has been reached. Permission is being applied to remove a major block from the wheels.

BHP Billiton, the world’s biggest mining group, has at last formally filed with the European Commission for clearance to take over rival Rio Tinto. This showed up in a Commission list of M&A cases last Friday.

The Commission, the European Union’s executive arm and also its antitrust regulator, set a deadline of July 4 for consideration of the deal. By that date the Commission must either approve the deal on competition grounds, open an in-depth investigation, or permit a short extension.

All sorts of points could give the Commission problems. Combining a number of BHP and Rio’s businesses would bring market dominance. So, Competition Commissioner Neelie Kroes is expected to be brought in.

Rio Tinto spurned BHP’s all-share offer very shortly after BHP announced it. The Rio line has consistently been that the bid is “ballparks” away from a fair offer.

The two companies have sparred over who had the better growth rate. Rio maintained that it expected to grow at a compound annual growth rate of 8.6% for the next seven years. BHP countered that it did not believe those numbers. In its view Rio would growth by 6% a year for the next five years. BHP, on the other hand, says it will grow at 6.9%.

Lots of people are unhappy – mainly customers

This, for sure, is no friendly takeover – the atmosphere is strongly hostile. And not just from Rio. All sorts of interested parties are doing their best to block the bid, too.

Major objectors are customers. The fear is that without competition, BHP will be able to charge whatever prices it likes. It would become a super mining major with sway over the global supply of a large number of minerals and metals.

The Chinese have taken their concern as far as buying a chunk of Rio to protect it. Earlier this year Chinalco and the US aluminium giant Alcoa bought 9 per cent of Rio in a $14bn raid. This is the largest single shareholding.

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Things had gone quiet for weeks before the EU story broke. Having started the bid with some pretty public rows, both companies went behind the scenes for the various talks that have been going on non-stop.

Informal talks have been held with regulators, and these had begun to leak out. The EU, for instance, is said to believe that the market strength of the combined company would inevitably lead to price hikes. This would slow economic growth even further. The Wall Street Journal put the cat among the pigeons by saying that the EU was really unhappy.

Both companies have also been going the round of shareholders, putting their cases directly. Some shareholders had been thinking the offer would be increased before now. No sign of any hike yet, however.

A case for asset upgrades here?

The battle moved back into the open last week. Rio held a marathon seminar in London. The aim was to show BHP’s bid as far, far too cheap. Rio wants the market to revalue its assets too, in the light of a forecast that world demand for its metals will double by 2022. Chinese growth is major factor in its new predictions.

Managing director Tom Albanese said that with each passing year “people have been taking what we believe is a more realistic view of the total China story”.

“In that environment, greenfield projects are becoming more valuable. And I think they will continue to be more valuable in the future,” he said.

Rio has been trading at a discount to the bid

His comments come as Rio’s share price traded at a discount of over 8% discount to the implied value of BHP’s offer. Mr Albanese blamed this on uncertainty about when the bid would proceed. But he stopped well short of saying that BHP’s 3.4-for-1 offer was nearing the ballpark in terms of value.

“We’ve said in the past that the board has reviewed the BHP Billiton pre-conditional takeover offer,” he said. “We took it seriously. We rejected it. We rejected it on the basis of value. Rio Tinto as a stand-alone company is worth much, much more than anything that we’ve seen presented to us.”

But he did not succeed last week in propelling the Rio share price to above the bid level.

BHP will probably wait until the regulatory processes are all finished before adding any sweeteners. Anyway, the current view is, it won’t put up its offer until posting formal offer document.

Timing? Probably late 2008 at best!

Keep mining.

Erin and Isabel

Source: Rio Investors Should Continue Waiting in the Hall