Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks » European Governments

The Coming Global Blackout

Andrew Gordon — Tue, 07 Jul 2009 15:55:15 +0000

Leave it to the government. It’s proposing a “tax and cap” regime for energy producers which will require fossil-fuel generating plants to pay extra.  The idea is to encourage clean fuels and discourage dirty ones. That’s fine in theory. But instead of helping our future energy situation, it’s going to make it a lot worse.The price of oil has already doubled in the past six months to over $60 per barrel. But it’s just the beginning of oil’s next gigantic price surge. If you thought that oil was ridiculously expensive last summer, you haven’t seen anything yet.

It doesn’t matter whether you believe in “Peak Oil” because this isn’t about Peak Oil coming to fruition. Peak Oil believes that oil discoveries have peaked leading to oil production’s inevitable decline.

This crisis will be strictly man-made. Governments and oil companies have already planted the seeds of the next great energy crisis. And there’s nothing anybody can do to prevent those seeds from sprouting.

The U.S. government got its religion late. But it’s now following the lead of European governments in limiting the use of fossil fuels through taxes and restrictive regulations.

That’s bad enough in itself. But then there’s the roller-coaster ride which oil prices have taken. The price of oil fell more than $100 from over $140 to under $40 (before going back up again). Oil companies everywhere had the same response. They all cut back on oil spending and production…

•    OPEC has cut back production by 2.2 billion barrels a day.
•    UAE has put off plans to expand oil production by 1 million barrels a day.
•    Saudi Arabia has delayed two $10-$20 billion refining projects (and may cancel them altogether).
•    Russia’s biggest oil company, Gazprom, has slashed production spending by 24 percent.
•    Venezuela, Nigeria, Malaysia and other national oil companies have cut back on their capital spending.
•    Statoil, EnCana, Petro-Canada, Suncor, Imperial Oil, and Royal Dutch Shell have all delayed or cancelled major projects in Canada’s vast but expensive-to-produce oil sands.

How bad are these cutbacks? Just ask the widely respected oil consulting agency, the International Energy Agency. It recently warned of a “second capacity crunch” causing widespread underinvestment in the oil industry.

Oil’s recent price rise could have loosened up oil producers’ purse strings. But oil companies are facing increasing disincentives from a government trying to replace fossil fuels with renewables.

If you want to know how the CEOs of Big Oil feel about the Obama administration’s energy policy, just ask Jim Mulva, head of ConocoPhillips.
This global oil company has operations in more than 30 countries. Mulva said last week that government intervention in the energy market “has an impact on the willingness of companies to pour billions into the development of new projects.”

In the meantime, the Obama administration is spending hundreds of millions of dollars on renewables, like the $467 million to encourage the development of geothermal and solar energy.|

The result? Geothermal and solar energy will have slightly bigger pieces of the energy pie. But oil priced at over $150 per barrel will kill the U.S. and global economic recovery in its infancy.

The cost of plastics and resins will go way up. Gas prices will surge over $5/ gallon. New highs in jet fuel will crash several airline companies. Actually, practically everything will cost more. I don’t think that’s what these governments have in mind.

And even with ample government support you shouldn’t invest in geothermal or solar companies. They will still depend on government subsidies to compete with the price of electricity generated by – take a guess – fossil fuels.

Instead you should invest in oil producers but not just any oil producer. Thanks to vast underinvestment and government policies, the price of oil will sky rocket. The only thing keeping the price of oil from going higher right now is that we’re still in the middle of the worst recession in seven decades.

But once demand returns, watch out.

Total’s CEO Christophe de Margerie says that a rise in demand while supply is constrained will unleash oil prices again.
And Mitsubishi warns that spare capacity will quickly disappear when oil demand picks back up.

But, as I said, most oil companies have cut back production and spending. That’s going to prevent them from getting windfall profits from soaring oil prices.

But four of the world’s major oil companies haven’t cut back on spending. Three of them are Exxon Mobil, Chevron and Thailand’s PTT Exploration & Production. But by far the best oil investment you could make is in a fourth big oil company.

Last year it spent 34 percent more on drilling for oil. And this year it’s spending 19 percent more. While the other oil majors are cutting back on spending and facing stagnant output, this company plans on raising production by 7-11 percent a year. I’m predicting its shares will go up at least 80 percent over the next three years, and the gains could be much bigger than that.

I’m sorry but I can’t give you the name of the company because it’s my latest recommendation to readers of my INCOME service. They deserve first crack at this company, especially since its price is so cheap at the moment. But if you’re interested in this company, just click here for more information, including how to sign up in order to get this company as your first recommendation.

Source: The Coming Global Blackout

Inflationary Tortillas

Richard Daughty — Tue, 27 May 2008 13:06:42 +0000

Consumers are suffering because the stupid European governments boosted spending for a decade or more, the money financed by debt, and it is all of this spending that has made the purchasing power of the euro to fall. How do we fix this? The Mogambo has an answer.

The biggest laugh I had all week was from Bloomberg.com reporting that “European consumers are ‘suffering as surging food and energy prices erode the value of their wages’, finance officials said” which is not itself funny, but the article immediately goes on that this is “urging governments to boost spending to help the poorest deal with the fastest inflation in 16 years.” Hahahaha!

But it’s okay, these guys are saying, because it’s “to help the poorest deal with the fastest inflation in 16 years.” Hahahaha! Idiots! As Strother Martin said of Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid in the movie of the same name as they went down the mountain to La Paz, “Idiots! I’ve got idiots on my team!”

For example, Jean-Claude Juncker of Luxembourg is quoted as saying, “The least well off in our societies are very seriously exposed to a loss of purchasing power due to the increase of oil prices, of commodity prices and food prices”, which is true.

Then, bizarrely, he says that this inflation-from-too-much-spending makes it imperative that “It’s up to public budgets to react to this loss in purchasing power by helping out the least well off”! Hahahaha!

And how does he suggest we do that? Naturally, anybody with an ounce of brains or education knows that the first thing you do is stop creating more money and credit, which is what causes a “loss in purchasing power” in the first damned place.

Naturally, I figure that since the solution is so simple that it was time to go out for something tasty to eat and something wet to drink, and then maybe take in a couple of XXX-rated movies, but I was wrong, as here comes European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet saying that inflation will remain “high’’ for quite some time to come, and European Union Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquin Almunia saying “We need to do more,’’ because “Inflation is a socially negative tax on the poorest’’ people, which it is, and that is why it is so imperative to stop creating more money and credit nowm not create more, you idiots!

Participating in this Gang of Morons Idiocy (GOMI) is U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling, who “cut the tax bills of Britain’s poorest families by 2.7 billion pounds ($5.25 billion) in a bid to cushion the blow from higher prices”, which is a nice thing to do, especially if you don’t want to overlook the fact that they were taxing Britain’s poorest families to start with, which tells you all you need to know about the good intentions of the British government.

But the horror is that they are NOT proposing to stop creating more money and credit! They were proposing to create MORE money and credit, making everything worse, as we learn to our horror when Darling said he will “raise government borrowing to finance the decision as slower economic growth curbs tax revenue.”

John Stepek, writing in the Money Morning newsletter from MoneyWeek.com, writes “Gordon Brown’s response to the end of his economic ‘miracle’ is to rattle off yet another succession of bills. You’d think he’d realise that the British consumer is sick of bills by now. But no. The man once laughably described as the Iron Chancellor has thrown off all pretence of fiscal competence and is now flinging money he doesn’t have at problems he can’t solve.”

And speaking of inflationary things that people can’t solve, Christopher Laird of PrudentSquirrel.com writes that “There is a report that 25% of the world wheat crop is at serious risk of a new virulent wheat rust that chokes the wheat before it comes to head. The US has its own concerns over a wheat rust spreading through the Mid West. So, what are the chances of a record grain harvest in 08?”

Naturally, I have no idea about the chances of anything since I figure that neither my marriage nor my career will last until the weekend, and so Mr. Laird gives us a hint. “Just to give an idea of the concern about food,” he writes, “China just spent a $400 a ton premium on fertilizer that used to cost $170 a ton Jan 08. It was a huge order. Reason? They are afraid that if they don’t have great harvests this year, tens of millions may starve in 09.”

And in case you don’t care about Europeans but are concerned about the other hemisphere because that is where you live, SteveQuayle.com posted a news.bbc.so.uk story that “The price of tortillas, a staple food in Mexico, are set to rise 18% in the next few weeks, an industry group says”.

This is bad news because “Thousands of people protested against tortilla price rises in Mexico last year” when tortilla prices rose “by more than 10%.”

So, Mexicans rioted at 10% inflation, and now everyone is wondering what they will do about 18% inflation in tortillas? Hahahaha! Welcome to inflationary hell! Ugh.

The Mogambo Sez: Ahh, commodities! Verily I say unto thee; thy gold, thy silver and thy oil sustain me when all others wouldst betray me, as they now betray all those who were tempted by the charms and promises of “invest in the stock market, invest in the bond market, invest in the housing market, and invest in a larger government for the long-term!”

Until next time,

The Mogambo Guru
for The Daily Reckoning

Editor’s Note: Richard Daughty is general partner and COO for Smith Consultant Group, serving the financial and medical communities, and the editor of The Mogambo Guru economic newsletter – an avocational exercise to heap disrespect on those who desperately deserve it.

The Mogambo Guru is quoted frequently in Barron’s, The Daily Reckoning and other fine publications.

Source: Inflationary Tortillas