Bill Bonner (The Daily Reckoning, UK):

We are high over the African veld… at least, we think it is called veld. That’s ‘field’ to you and us. And we’re so high above it we can’t see it anyway.

After a few days in Johannesburg, we’re on our way to Dakar. Why would Bill want to go to Dakar? We asked the same question. But Dakar is just a stopover on the way to Washington.

Meanwhile, there are things to be reckoned with.

When we left the ground, it appeared that we were finally getting the shakeout in gold that we’ve expected… and maybe the beginnings of a shakeout in stocks too.

(Whoa… we just landed in Dakar… got an internet signal. Seems gold is down another $22. The Dow, however, rose 51 points yesterday.)

On Friday, the London gold market saw the highest volume traded in history.

London gold expert, Dominic Frisby, sent this commentary:

“After peaking last Wednesday at about $1,220 an ounce, the price has fallen almost $100 in just four trading days. Friday’s capitulation – some $60 – was particularly ugly. It shows just how much speculative, hot money there is in the sector.

“So what now?

“In the week to last Wednesday 7 December, almost $300m of call options (options betting the market will rise) were traded in the largest gold exchange-traded fund (ETF), GLD.

“That is more than the entire call volume of the second and third quarters of this year – in just five trading days. On Wednesday alone, trading volume in GLD calls amounted to almost 50% of what the market traded in the entire second quarter.

“That is a sign of extreme speculative excess. It is not the time for short-term investors to buy. At such extremes, you have to ask: where are the next buyers going to come from?

“As we head into year end, there are a lot of fund managers who will want to lock in their profits for the year.

“I’m afraid that means they will sell their gold – and anything else they own that has done well – at the slightest hint of a turn in the markets, because they will want to secure their gains (and their bonuses) on what will have been an excellent year. That’s what we saw on Friday and why the market fell so hard, so fast.

“In the short term, this does not bode well for any market – except one. “It may be that we are finally seeing the end of the ‘Great Reflation Trade’, this astonishing rally out of the crash.”

Click here for the rest of Mr. Bonner’s article at The Daily Reckoning, UK Edition.

This issue is entirely in the contrarian spirit of playing devil’s advocate. So put your pitchforks down. Take a deep breath. There is plenty of space to poke holes in (or rant) about our thesis by writing to notes@todaysfinancialnews.com

So here it goes. The four reasons you shouldn’t buy gold today…

Reason 1: Did you know that the seventh largest holder of gold in the world is not a country, but an exchange traded fund? Yes, gold ETF SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) has amassed the seventh largest gold reserve in the world. This fund holds more gold than China, Switzerland, Japan, the United Kingdom or the European Central Bank.

So why does this matter? Because should big investors (hedge funds, pension funds) who hold this fund (and many due), decide to dump their shares or are forced to liquidate their holdings because of investor redemptions, who will buy up the excess slack? This excess supply would surely drive the price of gold down making for some unhappy gold bugs.

Reason 2: Gold is overbought at today’s price level. When anything becomes overbought quickly, as gold has in recent months, it has a habit of correcting just as quickly. According to Bob Prechter, CEO of Elliot Wave International, the precious metals are “heavily overbought” and the “path of least resistance” will be to the downside for many months. “[Gold's] going to go much further [down] than people think.”

While gold stocks have recently pushed their 200 and 50 day moving averages higher, which is a bullish indicator, the threat that speculators are leading the way is ever present. And if the current recession takes a double dip, which we think is highly possibly (and so does Nouriel Roubini), investors around the world will flee to the dollar again. When the dollar gets propped up, gold falls. And when it starts to fall, you can bet these speculators will be abandoning ship just as fast as they boarded. This could leave you, dear reader, with a sinking boatload of gold in the middle of the vast and hopeless ocean.

Reason 3: More inflation hedges are available today. In the past, gold served as the best inflation hedge out there. In the 1970s when inflation started taking off, so did gold. People piled into the precious metal at rates never before seen, driving the price up to historic highs.

Fast forward to today, and you have a much different investing environment. Gold’s monopoly as the only inflation hedge is over. Now, investors have a wealth of options such as currency ETFs, TIPS, short US Treasury ETFs, other baskets of commodities, and stock in companies that can raise prices on pace with inflation. While none of these vehicles is the perfect inflation hedge, each attracts money away from gold. And the less demand for gold, the less upward price pressure there will be.

Reason 4: The run up in gold is based on fear, not on increased demand. Right now, owning gold is a “fear trade.” The price of gold is not up because people are buying more jewelry or Indian saris. It’s up because people are scared of hyperinflation taking over, the mountain of debt crushing the US, and the fiat money system collapsing. But what if Chairman Ben, and all his merry henchmen, are actually doing the right thing? While it is hard to say this with a straight face, what if everything returns to normal and we experience a nice V-shaped recovery? Or, more plausibly, what if deflation wins the day? Both these scenarios will have serious downward consequences on the price of gold.

So, dear readers, what do you think? Are any of these scenarios possible? Write to us at info@contrarianprofits.com

You need to have a portion of your wealth in something tangible—something you can hold in your hand, like a hard asset.  I’m talking about oil, grains, livestock, sugar, copper, aluminum, gold, silver, platinum and even forest products like lumber.

The price of oil will never go to zero!  Someone will always be in the market to buy gasoline.  Gold has never been worth $0.  Silver could always buy you a meal–even in ancient times.

But can the value of a stock or a paper currency go to zero?  Yes, indeed.  One good way to invest in hard assets is to buy the Market Vectors RVE Hard Assets Exchange Traded Fund (HAP).  This ETF closely tracks the Hard Assets Producers index which consists of over 250 companies engaged in the production and distribution of hard assets and related products and services.

The Hard Assets Producers index was developed by the legendary international investor Jim Rogers.  It includes water and renewable energy sources like wind and solar which are ever more important natural resources.  Some of the big holdings of the index are Monsanto, Exxon Mobil, Potash, Syngenta, BHP Billiton, Archer-Daniels-Midland and Gazprom.

Protect your wealth and invest in hard assets.

Source: Invest in Hard Assets!

After all, this could easily just be a bear market rally. And bull markets rarely begin with a bear market rally and head straight higher.

Beware The Bear Market Trap

It makes sense to hedge against a renewed decline. Here’s why smart investors are doing so using inverse ETFs. Read on to find out what they are, how they work, and why you should consider adding one or two to your portfolio in order to protect it…

ETFs: A Safer, More Effective Way To Short The Market

Just a few years ago, investors who wanted to profit from a market/stock downturn had to borrow shares from their broker to short the asset in question. But today, betting against banks, small-cap stocks, or even entire market averages, is just one convenient ticker symbol away.

You can short the market by using an inverse exchange-traded fund (ETF).

And while I’m generally an investor who subscribes to the fact that stocks ultimately rise and produce solid, long-term gains, there are certain times when using inverse ETFs can be very appealing – particularly in the current market environment.

Exchange Traded Funds: A Brief Overview

Before we talk about the hedging advantages of inverse ETFs, let’s quickly review what ETFs are, and how they work…

• Exchange-traded funds are securities that closely resemble index funds, but are more flexible because you can buy and sell them during the day, just like common stocks.
• ETFs give investors a convenient way to purchase a broad basket of securities in a single transaction, offering the convenience of a stock along with the diversification of a mutual fund.
• From a humble start in the early 1990s, the ETF industry has exploded, particularly over the past several years. There are now over 700 ETFs, with $450 billion in assets.

And the advantages? ETFs boast several major ones over mutual funds and common stocks…

• Better diversification
• More flexibility
• Lower costs
• More liquidity
• Tax efficiency

Going Short The Smart Way With Inverse ETFs

Inverse ETFs (or short ETFs) are designed to move in the opposite direction of an underlying index. That means you profit when the benchmark tanks. The lower the underlying asset goes, the higher these funds advance.

Perfect for a bear market like this one.

Think of inverse ETFs as a type of insurance policy for your portfolio. Investing a modest amount in one of them can be a useful way to hedge against market declines, or protect your profits in certain asset classes.

And when an index or stock heads south (as we’ve seen many do with a vengeance recently), an inverse fund can help soften the blow – and in some cases, even generate enormous profits.

For example, on September 30, 2008, four days before the Dow went below 10,000, I sent a special newsflash to my ETF Authority readers identifying 14 securities that could skyrocket as the market heads south.

*Source: Bloomberg. Total returns from 9/30/08 – 3/5/09

As you can see, most of the inverse ETF have done exactly what they were designed to do in this rough market. And it doesn’t stop there…

Double Your Money with Inverse ETFs

Some ETFs can even return double the inverse of the underlying security. For example, if you buy shares of the ProShares UltraShort S&P 500 (NYSE: SDS) and the S&P 500 declines by 5%, SDS gains 10%. (Keep in mind that these funds compound daily, so if you invest for longer, the returns won’t line up exactly).

So how are these ultra-short funds able to double the inverse performance of indexes? Simple… by using leverage. The math doesn’t always work out exactly, but you can usually expect it to return double the inverse within a reasonable range.

The trade-off, however, is that these funds can be incredibly volatile – and if you’re wrong, you lose twice as much. So only consider going ultra-short if you have the stomach for it.

Why You Haven’t Missed Out on Short ETFs…

You may think you’ve missed the boat on short ETFs… but think again.

With the market coming off depressing lows, the current rally may simply be a “dead cat bounce” (which have been known to soar), as the market attempts to form a new bottom.

With this in mind, you may want to consider adding an inverse fund or two to help smooth out some of this unprecedented market volatility.

Good Investing!

Nathan Slaughter

Source: Inverse ETFs: How To Profit From The Bear Market Trap