And remember… This is the Federal Reserve! This is a lousy private bank operating irresponsibly, at the behest of the Congress, and whose shadowy owners include, to one degree or another, foreigners and foreign central banks that are operating by the grace of their own governments which are just as corrupt and desperate as our own, but it was the Fed that created enough money to buy a trillion dollar’s worth of US government bonds for itself! A trillion!

It’s called “monetizing the debt”, which Ben Bernanke said, in response to a direct question about it recently, that the Fed would “never” do! “Never” has now been re-defined to mean “continually?” Hahaha! Too much!

As an astute observer, you figure this must be pretty bad, gauging by the way I make a Very Loud Mogambo Fuss (VLMF) about it and droplets of spittle are flying from my flapping lips at supersonic speed as a throbbing vein is bulging out on my forehead.

And since a lot of this money was spent to buy government debt, how big was the federal budget deficit? You will be sorry you asked, and if you want to know the actual size of the actual federal deficit for the actual last year because you are pretty sure that the government is lying to you about the real size of their deficit-spending, then you have also come to the right place, because Treasury Public Debt is, as of last Friday, $11.797 trillion, whereas 12 lousy months ago it was $9.667 trillion, meaning that even if you are not sober enough to get this damned calculator to work or see those tiny little numbers, you can do the subtraction in your head!

The actual, in-your-face federal deficit was $2.130 trillion in the last 12 months! The deficit-spending by Congress is a whopping 15.2% of GDP, for crying out loud!

And if you are collecting unemployment, then you will be interested to know that the federal contribution to your check could have been painlessly almost doubled, as, according to Wikipedia, the 2009 federal budget had $360 billion for “Unemployment/Welfare/Other”, while the budget also had another $260 billion that could be used to help you out, but had to be spent for “Interest on National Debt.”

In short, if the damned government did not borrow and spend us into the poorhouse, causing your unemployment and impoverishment, the government would have had another $260 billion to help you and the other unemployed instead of only being able to budget $350 billion!

And this brings up the interesting point that since the national debt is $11,790 billion and this “interest on the national debt” is $260 billion, this means that the government is paying an average of 2.2% interest! Wow!

And remember that this $2.130 trillion increase in the national debt is just the deficit in Congressional spending, which doesn’t even include the $2.6 trillion in the budget that was “paid for” by offsetting revenues!

So, being the cantankerous sort that I am, suspecting treachery at every turn and disaster at the hands of the corrupt, the ignorant and the stupid that we lovingly call “Congress”, let me note that the morons of Congress have spent $2.6 trillion, plus $2.1 trillion equals $4.7 trillion, which they spent in a $14 trillion economy! The government is spending the equivalent of 34% of GDP! Gaaahh!

And it is going to get worse and worse because the Fed is doing the more and more of the same thing that created the economic problem in the first place! Gaaahhh! We’re freaking doomed!

But this time, instead of over-reacting, I sigh in relief – aaaaaahhhhhh! – as I remember the last 4,500 years of history when governments acted monetarily and fiscally irresponsible, and how owners of gold, silver and energy did very, very well, which is the whole point of this investing stuff!

And the fact that it is so easy makes you say, “Whee!”

Source: Never Say Never to Monetization

At this level, gold isn’t overly dramatic. We haven’t seen any really big moves one way or the other. The big moves will happen, eventually, I believe. We just have to be patient.

Why do I believe that gold will soar? Well, we’re still in the early chapters of the overall “gold story.” The plot is still forming, although I believe that all of the main characters are on stage.

We have excessive U.S. government spending. It’s out of control, to all intents and purposes. We have the deepening federal deficit, and associated exploding national debt. We have significant monetary players overseas, like Japan and China and Middle Eastern nations, holding trillions of dollars worth of U.S. bonds and other paper — and getting nervous about it. We have a hollowed-out North American economy that’s turned into what historian Charles Maier calls an “empire of consumption.”

Then we also have the utter incompetence and hubris of upper-level U.S. politicians and policymakers. They’re collectively so out of touch that they don’t even know that they’re out of touch. We have the parallel incompetence of the Big Media, with their overall “infotainment” approach to presenting vital news to the American people.

Where’s the tragic theme? There’s this sense of denial that anything really bad can possibly happen. It’s the monetary equivalent of a Dec. 6 or Sept. 10 kind of thinking. It’s a failure of imagination at the highest levels.

And whatever does happen, there’s this attitude that the U.S. can add complexity to the system and “spend its way” out of anything. Big government? Sure, and let’s make it bigger. (Hey, let’s have the government take over health care while we’re at it.) Stimulus? Go for it. Bail out Wall Street? Of course — aren’t they too big to fail? Cap and trade, and thus cripple the U.S. energy economy? Yep, we’ll just “conserve” more energy and build lots of windmills. Right?

It’s just spend, spend, spend, spend, spend. Or control, control, control, control, control. And bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize, bureaucratize. Modern governance is all about spending money we don’t have on complexity that we, as a society, cannot afford in any sense of the word. And few of the power brokers at the top seem to think that there’s anything wrong with it. They’ll just pass another law, spend some more money.

The tragic part of this drama is that the high and mighty are setting themselves — and the U.S. economy — up for a terrible fall. Sooner or later, with all the spending and new bureaucracy, we’re going to have an implosion and see a collapse in the level of complexity. Those green “notes” that the Federal Reserve prints — with the nice pictures of dead presidents on them — will not be worth nearly what most people believe.

Neither you nor I can do anything to prevent it. (OK, write to your congressman, for all the good it’ll do. Or go to a town hall meeting, for all the good it’ll do.)

The answer, of course, is to protect yourself and your family, and save what you can. When the mighty tumble, be sure not to be standing there in the crash zone.

Source: My Favorite “Mistake”

In a report to be released this week, the Obama administration will boost its 10-year projection for the federal budget deficit to about $9 trillion – an increase of roughly $2 trillion, or 29%, from its prior projection, Fox News reported over the weekend, citing a source from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

The new cumulative deficit projection – for 2010-2019 – replaces the administration’s previous estimate of $7.108 trillion. Changes in budget projections – whether they result in a surplus or a deficit – are often refined as economic conditions change. This new projection was necessary because the recession has gone on for so long, causing federal tax receipts to plunge – and because the economic rebound will be prolonged and weak, resulting in lower forecasts for future federal revenue.

Although most of the news media focuses on the Obama administration’s $787 stimulus measure, the fact is that the federal government was pushing forward with nearly $12 trillion in rebound-related financing commitments, Money Morning reported this spring.

The administration earlier this year predicted that unemployment would peak at about 9% without the financial-jump-starting initiatives and 8% with them. But U.S. joblessness zoomed skyward anyway, and stood at 9.4% last month, although many economists now say that a double-digit unemployment rate – one of 10% or more – is easily possible.

The nation’s debt now stands at $11.7 trillion. In the scheme of things, that’s more important than talking about the deficit, which only looks at a one-year slice of bookkeeping and ignores previous debt that is still outstanding.

Back in June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the federal deficit would reach $1.825 trillion this year. The CBO and the Obama administration will tomorrow (Tuesday) separately release new budget-deficit predictions. Last Wednesday, a senior White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that the administration estimate would reach $1.58 trillion – or triple last year’s deficit.

The report for the budget year that ends Sept. 30 also will predict Washington to spend $3.653 trillion this year, although revenue will reach only $2.074 trillion, the unnamed senior official told The AP.

“Whether it’s $1.6 trillion or $1.8 trillion, it’s pretty bad,” said Robert Bixby, executive director of the bipartisan fiscal watchdog The Concord Coalition, told Fox News. “I hope no one tries to spin that as good news.”

Total U.S. debt has soared to $11.7 trillion (the budget deficit is the “shortfall” in the annual deficit, while the debt is cumulative), having balloned to that level as a result of the multiple annual deficits that have become the norm, it seems.

Market Matters

Just who is the world’s great economic superpower these days?  At times, it seems, “as China goes, so go the world equity markets.”  Early in the week, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) suffered its largest percentage decline since late 2008, with the index plunging more than 20% for the month on concerns about the sustainability of China’s recovery.

The global markets watched as the Japan, Europe, and the U.S. indexes followed the SSE downward.  By mid-week, however, all eyes were back on the domestic market as another sell-off in China was overshadowed by signs of growing U.S. economic strength and reports of enhanced energy demand.

The global bailout plans moved into a new stage as the Swiss government relinquished its control over banking giant UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) by selling off its investment for a $1.13 billion profit, or a 30% annualized return.  While the U.S. government has yet to reap similar benefits, several major banks have paid off their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans and the CEO for one of the poster children for financial distress, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), announced that his firm should be able to pay back the government and may even be able to “do something for shareholders as well.”

While many auto dealers complained about the rebate process on the “Cash for Clunkers” program, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GRM) stepped forward and will begin providing advances to participants who continue to wait for the government to move through its traditional red-tape.

The healthcare debate (and political infighting) raged on (complete with widespread town hall civil disobedience).  Rumors that the government would remove its public-health-plan option sent related health-care stocks soaring early in the week, though the jury remains out as to how this will really play after U.S. President Barack Obama guaranteed approval of an overhaul and then bashed congressional Republicans for their efforts in blocking any plan whatsoever.

On the earnings front, the housing sector received mixed signals as Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) bested expectations, while rival Lowe Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) fell short and reduced its outlook. Cost-cutting was widespread among retailers as The TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TJX), The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), and even Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) benefited from increased margins, though sales remained lackluster at best.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) struggled in its PC and printer-business segments, though management expects a healthy rebound in its fiscal fourth quarter.

Fixed income benefited from some early “flight-to-quality” trades and a report that showed strong foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries in June (despite ongoing rumors to the contrary).  Stocks fell sharply in sympathy with the China sell-off, though buyers reemerged in a big way on positive signs from the earnings and economic reports.

Likewise, oil prices shook off some early week negativity and surged to 2009 highs, as a surprising plunge in inventory levels revealed growing demand – perhaps to coincide with the beginning of a global economic rebound?  On that note, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments about the prospects for recovery (though slow at first) were extremely well-received as investors seemed to all but forget about following Shanghai and the U.S. markets assumed the leadership role once again.  The major domestic indexes shrugged off the weak start and pushed to new highs for the year.

Market/ Index	Year Close (2008)	Qtr Close (06/30/09)	Previous Week (08/14/09)	Current Week (08/21/09)	YTD Change
Dow Jones Industrial	8,776.39	8,447.00	9,321.40	9,505.96	+8.31%
NASDAQ	1,577.03	1,835.04	1,985.52	2,020.90	+28.15%
S&P 500	903.25	919.32	1,004.09	1,026.13	+13.60%
Russell 2000	499.45	508.28	563.90	581.51	+16.43%
Global Dow	1526.21	1,629.31	1,803.83	1,819.50	+19.22%
Fed Funds	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0 bps
10 yr Treasury (Yield)	2.24%	3.52%	3.56%	3.56%	+132 bps

Economically Speaking

In addition to the Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings reports, housing news was prevalent during the week and the results were somewhat confusing.  The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index climbed for the second month in a row and reached its highest level in over a year.  Likewise, applications for mortgages increased for the third straight month on declining interest rates.

However, foreclosure rates remain on the rise and, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 13.2% of mortgages are delinquent or worse (in foreclosure); in fact, subprime mortgages are no longer the only area of concern as the unsettled labor picture has prompted homeowners with strong credit to fall behind on their prime mortgages as well.

Though housing starts fell in July, the decline was entirely attributable to apartment activity and construction of single-family homes actually rose for the fifth straight month.  Additionally, existing home sales in July surged by more than 7% as buyers took advantage of the misfortunes of others (in foreclosure), though prices continue to fall because of transactions related to these distressed properties.

In non-housing news, separate regional reports from the New York and Philadelphia Feds boosted the outlook for the domestic manufacturing sector and the overall economy.  Wholesale inflation remained benign as the producer price index (PPI) fell by a wider-than-expected 0.9% in July and prices have plummeted over the past 12 months by the largest percentage (6.8%) since records have been kept, dating back to 1947.

Be forewarned: Oil just hit a 2009-high.

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers met for their annual conference and Fed Chair Bernanke shared a favorable assessment about the recovery process from “the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression.”  Of course, Bernanke tempered some of his remarks and reiterated that, while the recession seems to be coming to an end, the rebound would likely be slow, with unemployment remaining a concern.

Bernanke also spoke of the need for financial regulatory reform in order to ensure the current financial debacle isn’t repeated.  The Fed also extended its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) lending program in order to help stem the potential “challenges” that remain among commercial mortgage-backed securities.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: In the Race for a U.S. Economic Rebound, Growing Debt and Budget Deficits Remain the Biggest Possible Roadblock

Why would you pay 40 times earnings for a homebuilder? It’s a fairly easy business to enter. No barriers to entry that a little money… a few connections… and a circular saw can’t overcome. With no barriers to entry, profit margins are always squeezed by competition. And growth is limited too… other builders are always starting up. If the investor paid 40 times earnings, he can only get 2.5% on his money — if the company pays out 100% in dividends! So, why pay so much?

The answer has two parts. First, China is providing stimulus to its economy on a mammoth scale. It gave the signal to its banks. The banks responded by opening the flood gates. Loans in the first half of the year measured three times those of the same period a year before. Naturally, this liquidity had an effect. The economy is booming. Everything credit can buy is being bought. But… as we at the Daily Reckoning know… you can’t buy real prosperity on credit.

The other reason for the bubble in builders’ shares is that investors – especially investors in China – have learned nothing from the crash of ’07-’08.

These are our little secrets, aren’t they, Dear Reader? The rest of the world seems unaware of how the investment markets work… and they think credit is Miracle Grow for the economy.

But markets are not mathematical, nor mechanical; they’re moral. Their purpose is not to make people wealthy, but to make them wise. And then… only for a while.

It they were mathematical you might make people richer by adding zeros. But it’s not that simple. Zimbabwe tried it; it doesn’t work. A Dear Reader gave us a $10 TRILLION dollar bill – real money printed by the Zimbabwean Treasury. That – and about $5 US dollars – will buy you a cup of coffee in Harare… if they have any.

If they were purely mathematical, you might be able to anticipate price movements with computers and Ph.Ds. in math… Many have tried it. As far as we know, none has ever really succeeded.

It’s not a mechanical system either. When prices go down, there are no screws you can tighten… no levers you can pull… Nor can you add more fuel or slather on more grease. It’s not that simple.

Instead, markets are complex natural systems… Like mistresses, they can be jiggled and jived… but they can never really be controlled or predicted. That’s what makes them so interesting, of course.

The markets are always teaching us… always correcting us… always giving us a kick in the pants. These are moral lessons… in the broad sense. That is, if you do the wrong thing you get punished for it. Step on a rake; it hits you in the face.

The purpose of a bear market is to correct the errors of the preceding boom. Most prominent among those errors is to think you can make money by speculating in the stock market. What this idea takes hold, good sense goes out the window. People will buy dot.coms with no business plans… and house builders at 40 times earnings!

But that’s how we’ll know when the correction is over – when people give up on the stock market… .when they want nothing more to do with it. Judging by today’s news… we’re still a long way from there.

Get ready for another crash… the next leg down of this historic correction… the next kick in the pants… the next moral lesson.

More thoughts…

*** If investors have learned nothing so far… neither have the feds. All over the world they’re trying to solve a problem caused by too much credit by providing more credit. Trillions’ worth…
We see the result of it in China… a country where the feds have money to spend… and the power to tell bankers what to do. The markets have gone wild…

In the US and Britain, they’ve been less successful. But they haven’t given up. On the contrary… they’ve put at risk an amount equal to nearly twice the GDP of the entire US economy… and now they’re talking about stimulus II… which will probably be followed by Stimulus III and Stimulus IV… until the whole thing finally explodes in a blaze of glory…

Consumers have wised up. They seem to have learned their lesson. Savings rates have gone from zero to 7% in the past 12 months – a remarkable turnaround. Frugality is back in fashion. Thrift has been put back in the dictionary. Consumers are tired of carrying huge debt loads. They’re eager to get rid of them as soon as they can.

But neither Wall Street, nor Washington, nor investors seemed to have learned much. Wall Street is still handing out billions in bonuses – leaving its firms short of capital reserves. Investors still seem ready to jump onto whatever wagon has the most other people on it. And while the private sector ran up trillions in debt in the bubble years; now, it’s the public sector’s turn.

In 1991, borrowing by government and the private sector put together was less than 5% of GDP. But by 1998, the private sector was on a binge. Every year for the following decade, households and businesses borrowed between 10% and 15% of GDP, while government continued to borrow modest amounts… less than 5% of GDP.

In 2008, the positions reversed dramatically. Private sector borrowing collapsed to below zero – meaning, the private sector was is paying off debt, not accumulating more of it. The public sector, on the other hand, has come to the rescue with borrowings between 10% and 15% of GDP.

Of course, this is classic counter-cyclical stimulus. What the private sector giveth up on… the public sector taketh up like an unexploded hand grenade. The politicians are now pulling the pin…

Yes, dear reader, there are still lessons to be learned.

But wait… isn’t counter-cyclical stimulus a good thing? Everyone says so. Without it, said Ben Bernanke, we might have entered a Second Great Depression. And we don’t know… maybe he’s right. The private sector is no longer borrowing and spending like it used to; now, the feds have to do it, right?

Where have you been, dear reader? That’s not the way it works. The credit explosion in the bubble years didn’t really make households richer – it made them poorer. That’s why they’re struggling to pay their bills now. And the credit explosion in the public sector now isn’t going to make people richer either; it’s going to make them poorer too. Soon, the US will be struggling to pay its debts too.

That’s the moral lesson: borrowing makes you poorer. Unless you’re using the money to increase output, there’s no economic health it in. In other words, if a factory sees an opportunity, it might borrow to expand. The extra output should produce enough profit to allow it to repay the loan… and come out ahead. But if you borrow to consume, at the end of the day you’re poorer.

That’s the lesson of the Bubble Years. That’s the lesson consumers need to learn every couple of generations. And now, they seem to have learned it. They remember that the economy ran hot in the bubble époque, but it didn’t do them any good. The stimulus of the era stimulated consumption, not genuine wealth-building.

And now cometh the feds. They’re borrowing and spending on a scale never before seen. The federal deficit is expected to come to $2 trillion this year. Trillion-dollar deficits are foreseen for the next 10 years. There seems to be no way out.

What the private sector took away – about $1.4 trillion of debt-induced spending – the public sector puts back. But will this spending produce any more real wealth than the private sector binge? Let’s see… the news reports tell us they are using it to fix toilets in national parks… cut down pine trees in rural Tennessee… and bail out the bankers on Wall Street.

Is this consumption or investment? If it is investment, is it wise investment? It’s not enough to invest; you have to put money into projects that pay off… that pay dividends… projects that give you the cashflow to pay back the debt! Will federal spending for the stimulus/bailout projects do that?

Don’t even wait for the answer, dear reader; you already know what it is.

Tomorrow… the vigilantes are back… the real showdown…

Source: Get Ready for Another Crash

Here it comes, slowly but surely: “We sincerely hope the U.S. fiscal deficit will be reduced, year after year,” China’s Assistant Finance Minister Zhu Guangyao said overnight after talks with Treasury Secretary Geithner. Could he lay it out any more clearly than this? “The Chinese government is a responsible government, and first and foremost our responsibility is the Chinese people, so of course we are concerned about the security of the Chinese assets.”

The Chinese now own over $801 billion in U.S. debt, nearly double their holdings at the start of 2007 and by far the world’s largest stash of American paper.
“We are committed,” responded Tim Geithner, “to taking measures to maintaining greater personal saving and to reducing the federal deficit to a sustainable level by 2013.” We have no idea what he might mean by that… the CBO still projects a $1.8 trillion budget deficit this year, $1.4 trillion next year, $984 billion in 2011 and $633 billion by the end of 2012. That makes the Bush administration look like penny pinchers, and is certainly not even in the realm of “sustainable.”
The U.S. government issued another $42 billion in 2-year notes today, the first of this week’s record $115 billion debt issuance.
“Debt is the story of today’s economy,” says Chris Mayer, echoing a theme of this year’s Investment Symposium. “There is still too much of it. Yet the mainstream view seems to be that more of same is the elixir to see us out of this bust. In fact, debt issuances by governments are hitting new records.

“The U.S. government is spending money hand over fist. That’s not new. The U.S. is hoping more foolish foreign central banks will line up and absorb the deluge for pitiful interest rates. The 2-year note sells for a yield of 1.1%.

“Maybe Washington will pull it off. But one day, people are going to demand a better rate to take the government’s paper. At some point, the market’s appetite for puny yields will go away. When that happens, interest rates will rise significantly and debt prices will crash. It’s not a matter of if, only when. To continue at this pace is clearly unsustainable.

“The crazy thing is that the U.S. government is not alone. Emerging markets are also issuing record levels of bonds. The Financial Times reports this morning that ‘the surge in issuance this year [hit] its highest point since records began in 1962.’ The biggest issuers include China, Brazil, Russia, South Korea and some of the Gulf states.

“Incredibly, most seem to look at these debt issuances as positives for the global economy. The FT, for instance, opined (in the middle of its news story) that the debt sales were ‘an encouraging sign for the world economy.’

“It’s a weird paradigm that thinks growing debt levels are a good thing for the global economy, but it is a mainstream view. Economists, lost in their models and abstract curves, preach the benefits of stimulus — printing money and spending and borrowing. And people seem to eat this up.”
Quick perspective: China’s Internet population grew 13.4% in the first half, to 338 million, says government-run China Internet Network Information Center. That’s more than the whole population of the U.S. Yet penetration rates there are just over 25%, compared with 75% in the U.S.
Here’s a headline we can’t resist: “Home Prices Rose in May,” trumpets The New York Times this morning. We understand… they’ve got papers to sell and a hell of a mortgage. But in reality, the U.S. housing market is only decaying at a slower pace. Today’s S&P/Case-Shiller home price index reading is par for the course for the last quarter… home prices and sales are still falling, just no longer accelerating into the abyss.

May registered a 16.8% annual decline in S&P’s 10-City Composite, with its 20-City just a bit worse. Even though that’s still a far cry from home price appreciation, May marks the fourth month in a row in annual return improvement. So raise your glass for a toast… here’s to four months of, ummm, home prices not registering record annual declines. (Better make it a double.)

“To put it in perspective,” says David Blitzer, steward of the index, “this is the first time we have seen broad increases in home prices in 34 months. This could be an indication that home price declines are finally stabilizing.

“While many indicators are showing signs of life in the U.S. housing market, we should remember that on a year-over-year basis, home prices are still down about 17% on average across all metro areas, so we likely do have a way to go before we see sustained home price appreciation.”
Stocks managed to eke out a small gain yesterday, even though blue chip earnings were a bust. Traders clung to the new home sales jump and shrugged off bad numbers from Honeywell, Aetna and Verizon. The S&P 500 inched up 0.3%.
“The stock market has abandoned rationality,” declares Dan Amoss. “Sure, it usually rallies ahead of evidence of measurable progress in the economy, but the rally from March to May had already priced in a strong ‘V-shaped’ recovery, which will, obviously, not happen. At best, we’re in for years of stagnation and lower living standards as society inflates away, pays down or writes off bad debts.

“The recent rally, starting on July 13, has raised the bar for corporate earnings over the next few quarters even higher, setting market participants up for another round of disappointment.

“In the financial, REIT and consumer discretionary sectors, the market completely detached from reality. Part of this can be explained by the growth of program trading based on backward-looking statistical inputs, part by the triumph of technical analysis over critical analysis, and part by the herd behavior of fund managers.

“Regarding the triumph of technical analysis over critical analysis, ridiculous notions like the following are clearly driving the market higher: ‘We just broke through ‘resistance’ at 950 on the S&P 500, so therefore, it’s a mathematical certainty that we’ll go to 1,050 or 1,100.’ This kind of ‘analysis’ is dangerous. When we all start watching and reacting to charts and stop thinking critically about what stocks are intrinsically worth based on reasonable assumptions about the future, the adjustment process back to reality can be violent and painful. The 1987 crash is a case in point.”

We’re putting the final touches on a new special report from Dan on the next big-name company to blow up. We’ve got to keep the details under our hat for a little while longer, but for now, let’s just say it’s a very significant and influential bank. More to come…
The SEC added more restrictions to short selling today.The process of naked shorting — selling stocks short without locating shares to borrow — is now officially illegal. It’s a reasonable rule, but we doubt it will make much of a difference… remember that the SEC has enforced a temporary ban on naked short selling since September 2008. Ironically, the worst of the credit crisis sell-offs came right after the ban.

But here’s one that gets us a little nervous: The SEC said it is “increasing transparency around short sales.” Essentially, the commission is going to require institutional-size shorters to provide daily trading reports, which it will make public one month in arrears (without the names of the investors or institutions). From a reporter’s perspective, it’ll certainly be interesting. But why are we keeping tabs on something that’s supposed to be legal? Will rabid buyers get the same treatment?
Speaking of short plays, the U.S. dollar is still in hot water.The dollar index briefly made a new 2009 low this morning of 78.3. Having found support there in the past, the index was quick to bounce back to a still-low 78.7.
The dollar’s spring back put the hurt on gold. After holding steady for the last week or so around $955 an ounce, the spot price is down to $944 as we write.
Crude oil is declining too. The light sweet variety is down a buck and change today, to $66 a barrel.
Sugar is the commodity du jour. At 18.45 cents a pound, sugar’s up 56% in 2009, to a three-year high. There’s a shortfall of the stuff in India, interestingly the world’s largest sugar consumer. And recent dollar weakness/energy price appreciation has added fuel to the fire.
Finally, the truth comes out: “I was not going to be the Federal Reserve chairman who presided over the second Great Depression,” Ben Bernanke told PBS at a recent town hall-style interview. We imagine the appearance was designed to boost his public image and cement his coming reappointment… looks like that might have backfired.

“Did he really think that comment through?” asks Byron King. “It’s so reminiscent of President Nixon, many years past… ‘I’m not going to be the first American president to lose a war,’ said Milhous of the police action in Vietnam. Goes to show you… just wait awhile and these public officials will give you grist for the mill.”

A few more quotes from the interview that we’ll be keeping on file:

“I have a lot of confidence that within a few years that we will be not only back on track but that we will be growing strongly again.

For the next couple of years, “inflation will be quite low.

And just for the mental image: “I had to hold my nose and stop those firms from failing.”
In the mailbox today, the sarcasm floweth:
“C’mon, admit it, you’re wrong,” writes a reader responding to yesterday’s 5. “Just ask Cramer: The bottom was in March. The housing bottom was hit a month ago… green shoots poppin’ up everywhere… Look at all them positive bottom lines. Soon we will be living in a carbon-free world with inexpensive health care for all, while maidens paid for by the government with our grandchildren’s bucks slowly drop grapes into our mouths.

“We can live in housing paid for by the government on land owned by the government. I wonder if we get a choice of color for our tents. Will they furnish chemical toilets or will we even have a pot to piss in? The recession is over… cause the depression starts and the Chinese take possession of Amerika in lieu of payment for what is owed.”
“You guys are so far off base!” claims another. “The ‘cash for clunkers’ program is another cash cow for Goldman Sachs: Securitize buying up thousands of ‘85 Chevys from Grandma, who has never heard about the program; sell them to Uncle Sam (aka GM/Chrysler); and give away the purchased upgrades for a charitable deduction. Everybody wins.”

Source:  China Warns (Again), The Housing Faux-Recovery, Three Sectors to Short and More!

“The Chinese government is a responsible government, and first and foremost our responsibility is the Chinese people, so of course we are concerned about the security of the Chinese assets.”

The Chinese now own over $801 billion in U.S. debt, nearly double their holdings at the start of 2007 and by far the world’s largest stash of American paper.

“We are committed,” responded Tim Geithner, “to taking measures to maintaining greater personal saving and to reducing the federal deficit to a sustainable level by 2013.” We have no idea what he might mean by that… the CBO still projects a $1.8 trillion budget deficit this year, $1.4 trillion next year, $984 billion in 2011 and $633 billion by the end of 2012. That makes the Bush administration look like penny pinchers, and is certainly not even in the realm of “sustainable.”

The U.S. government issued another $42 billion in 2-year notes today, the first of this week’s record $115 billion debt issuance.

“Debt is the story of today’s economy,” says Chris Mayer, echoing a theme of this year’s Investment Symposium. “There is still too much of it. Yet the mainstream view seems to be that more of same is the elixir to see us out of this bust. In fact, debt issuances by governments are hitting new records.

“The U.S. government is spending money hand over fist. That’s not new. The U.S. is hoping more foolish foreign central banks will line up and absorb the deluge for pitiful interest rates. The 2-year note sells for a yield of 1.1%.

“Maybe Washington will pull it off. But one day, people are going to demand a better rate to take the government’s paper. At some point, the market’s appetite for puny yields will go away. When that happens, interest rates will rise significantly and debt prices will crash. It’s not a matter of if, only when. To continue at this pace is clearly unsustainable.

“The crazy thing is that the U.S. government is not alone. Emerging markets are also issuing record levels of bonds. The Financial Times reports this morning that ‘the surge in issuance this year [hit] its highest point since records began in 1962.’ The biggest issuers include China, Brazil, Russia, South Korea and some of the Gulf states.

“Incredibly, most seem to look at these debt issuances as positives for the global economy. The FT, for instance, opined (in the middle of its news story) that the debt sales were ‘an encouraging sign for the world economy.’

“It’s a weird paradigm that thinks growing debt levels are a good thing for the global economy, but it is a mainstream view. Economists, lost in their models and abstract curves, preach the benefits of stimulus — printing money and spending and borrowing. And people seem to eat this up.”

Source:  China Turns it Up Another Notch

Last weekend, we journeyed to Boston to attend a college graduation. Thousands of callow scholars were on display. Each was handed his papers…and then marched out of the hockey stadium. To the tune of ‘Pomp & Circumstance,’ wearing a long, red robe, he entered the outside world solemnly…like a patsy joining a poker game.

So far, not a single major university has asked us to make the commencement address. Nor a minor college. Not even a school of cosmetology or taxidermy. But here on the back page, protected by a broad ocean and a narrow reading of the First Amendment, we will give them – and UK graduates too — advice no one asked for:

“Plastics,” was the advice given to college graduates in Mike Nichols’ ’67 film. But that was when there was still hope for America’s manufacturing sector. Even then, it was too late. The percentage of GDP from the manufacturing sector fell for the next 4 decades, from over 20% in the last ‘60s to barely 12% last year. Better advice would have been ‘derivatives.’ They stank just as bad, but they were on the upswing. While only 8% of GDP, finance accounted for 40% of corporate profits in 2007. And derivatives grew from nothing to a face value of 16 times the GDP of the entire planet.

But your elders are always giving you bum advice.

“You cannot decline the burdens of empire and still expect to share its honors,” said Pericles to the class of 430BC. He lived during a time not unlike your parents in the USA – when Athens was on top of the world. But vanity got the better of him. He launched an attack on Sparta, which backfired badly. He soon died of plague and Athens was not only ruined, but enslaved. Athens’ ‘golden age’ turned to lead. Young Athenians should have shrugged off the burden rather than accept it. You should do the same.

When you were born 20-some years ago, the nation’s total debt per person was less than $90,000 – adjusted to ’09 dollars, of course. While that was a lot of money, it was nothing compared to what was coming. Now it’s $186,717 per person – more than twice as much, in real terms. Fortunately, private debt is not inheritable. But it comes to you as a lien against property. Instead of paying off their mortgages and leaving you a house, free and clear, the baby boomer generation spent the ‘equity’ in their houses even faster than they got it. House prices rose. But mortgage debt rose faster. While your grandparents owned 80% of their houses, by 2007, the typical homeowner only really owned 4 rooms of an 8-room house. And then, when house prices fell, so did his remaining equity…to the point where one out of six homeowners in America is now underwater. You could still eventually inherit a house, but you may to scrape the barnacles off the front porch.

But that’s not even the half of it. While your parents had control of the US government they allowed themselves a little larceny. Add the unfunded retirement and healthcare benefits they voted themselves to the official national debt and together they are scheduled to cost your generation 4 times the total annual output of the US. This is over and above the private debt they accumulated.

Some of this debt can be carried. Some will have to paid down. But as it stands, as much as $77 trillion of post-’09 earnings must be stolen from the future in order to pay for the liquor your parents drank…the bombs they dropped on god-forsaken foreigners…and the interest on their debts. So, forget about saving for a European vacation or a house of your own. Even if every penny of your savings – and every other American’s savings — are put to the task you will still be paying for your parents’ expenses all your life.

But wait, there’s more! The burden is getting heavier. Federal budget projections show an additional $7 trillion in deficits over the next 10 years. Described as the cost of fighting recession, the present generation buries its own mistakes under cash that the next generation hasn’t even earned yet. Today’s bankers, businessmen and speculators are being bankrolled by you – tomorrow’s bankers, businessmen and speculators. Today’s homeowners get a helping hand…from whom? Tomorrow’s homeowners – you. Today’s employees get a boost too. Same story. Where do you think the money came from to pay Wall Street bonuses this year? How do you think GM stays in business…and Fannie Mae..and AIG… Who pays those salaries? Who pays to keep troops all over the world and keep old people supplied with new drugs? Who pays for hundreds of billions’ worth of ‘shovel ready’ boondoggles? You will. At least, that’s the plan.

Like Pericles, your lucky parents inherited a dollar; they leave you a peso. They took over the strongest, richest, most competitive nation in the world. And like Pericles they minded everyone’s business but their own. Now, not only does the US owe money all over town, its government puts out trillions more in IOUs every year – each one with your name on it. You’re not even out in the real world yet, and you’re getting the bill for 50 cents of every dollar the feds spend – almost none of it earmarked for you. But that is the thing about the real world your teachers probably forgot to tell you about. It is more unreal and fantastical than anything you studied.

Here’s what’s real: You’ve been dealt a bad hand. From the bottom of the deck….your parents have slipped you some nasty cards. My advice? Fold ‘em. Get up from the table before they clean you out.

The U.S. recession is now in its 15th month, and many economists now expect the downturn to last until 2010 – if not longer. In fact, some economists now say the U.S. malaise could easily evolve into the virulent “L-shaped” downturn that Hutchinson predicted – a development that would guarantee both the maximum pain and the slowest recovery, experts say.

“I said in December that the recession could be ‘bloody-L shaped.’ With the huge deficits, that now looks the most likely outcome – and believe me when I say that it will be very bloody,” Hutchinson said this week. “The economy will bottom quite soon, but every time it tries to emerge the drags of the federal deficit, the huge bank bailouts and the huge money creation will drag it back.”

Noted Hutchinson: “It won’t get all that much deeper – it’s not 1929-33 – but my estimated emergence date is about 2013. The economy will remain essentially flat till then, although wobbles may make [it look like a “W-shaped” recovery] –until you realize there are more than two bends in the ‘W’.”

Nouriel Roubini, the professor with York University’s Stern School of Business who predicted the current financial and economic crises, wrote in the March 1 edition of The New York Times that the recession could last a total of 36 months. The U.S. slump – instead of following a typical “U” shaped rebound – “may turn into a more virulent L-shaped near depression,” he wrote.

Reports Keep Getting Worse

U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 6.2% annual pace in the fourth quarter of 2008, the U.S. Commerce Department reported Feb. 27. That’s the biggest drop since 1982, and was far more than analysts had anticipated, Money Morning reported.

The government had earlier estimated the drop in fourth-quarter GDP at 3.8%.  The subsequent revision of 2.4 percentage points was almost five times as large as the average adjustment. Global trade, which contributed a 0.1% gain in the advance report, actually subtracted half a percentage point from growth last quarter, indicative of the truly worldwide nature of the current financial crisis.

“Most of the major components contributed to the much larger decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter than in the third,” the Commerce Department said. “The largest contributors were a downturn in exports and a much larger decrease in equipment and software.”

The U.S. economy lost 651,000 jobs in February, the fourth month in a row where job losses were right around the 600,000 mark. The unemployment rate rocketed to 8.1%, its highest level in more than 25 years. The U.S. economy has now shed 4.4 million jobs since the recession began in December 2007, with more than half coming in the last four months.

Thanks to a seemingly unending stream of bad news or disappointing economic reports, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has sold off sharply and trades at or near 12-year lows.

“This is what falling off a cliff looks like,” Lawrence Mishel, president of the Economic Policy Institute, told MarketWatch.com. [For a complete analysis of the February employment report, check out this story, which appears elsewhere in today’s issue of Money Morning].

Optimism in Short Supply

Because the U.S. economic landscape is so dour right now, economists say there could easily be another two to four years of malaise.

“I find it quite easy to imagine two consecutive years of contraction,” Harvard University financial historian Niall Ferguson, a financial historian at Harvard University, said in one of 11 assessments by economists that appeared in The Times. “I don’t rule out two more lean years after that,” he said. Bloomberg News summarized the assessments in an article last week.

Although the burst of the housing bubble, the U.S. financial system morass, global trade problems and soaring joblessness are all key contributors, the drop-off in consumer spending is the key culprit, since it accounts for 70% of the country’s economic activity.

Because U.S. consumers are in such bad shape financially – and are obviously both angry and scared – any “whiffs of growth [this year] are likely to herald a false dawn,” Morgan Stanley Asia (MS) Chairman Stephen Roach told The Times, noting that he doesn’t expect to see the economy begin to actually expand again until late 2010 or early 2011.

And when the recovery does begin, it will likely be weak – if not downright anemic.

For one thing, history shows that – after a severe banking crises – an economic system typically takes as long as four years to return to its prior personal income peak, says University of Maryland Economist Carmen Reinhart, an economist at the University of Maryland.

George Cooper, author of “The Origin of Financial Crises: Central Banks, Credit Bubbles and the Efficient Market Fallacy,” said that while the recession – as technically defined – could be over by the end of 2010, “the broader credit cycle will likely remain a significant drag on economic activity well into the next decade.”

Some Bright Spots?

There are some optimists – including former U.S. Federal Reserve insiders Alan Blinder and William Poole. Both Blinder, the former central bank vice chairman, and Poole, the former president of the St. Louis Fed, are both on record predicting an upturn in the economy late this year.

Blinder, a Princeton University economics professor, said that “housing must hit bottom at some point,” Bloomberg reported.
When that happens, house-hunters could come out in droves, said Eric E. Schmidt, the chairman and chief executive officer of search giant Google Inc. (GOOG).

“Americans love a bargain,” so the economy will get a boost from consumers jumping in to take advantage of once-in-a-lifetime buying opportunities, Schmidt said.

James Grant, editor of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, agrees that falling housing prices will jump-start growth. But he’s just not willing to predict when that will happen.

“Today’s low prices, painful though they may be, are the market’s own shovel-ready stimulus,” Grant wrote in his Times Op-Ed piece. “Before you know it, the stock market, and the residential real-estate market, too, will be on their way back up again — just don’t ask when.”

Source: As Economic Reports Worsen, Experts Predict a Longer Downturn

Martin Denholm of the Smart Profits Report shows us where to find the profits in the wreckage.

This from Martin:

Hey… wake up, Larry. The coffee is ready.

If you were as amazed as I was at the sight of President Obama’s chief economic advisor, Larry Summers, snoozing through Obama’s Fiscal Responsibility Summit on Monday (on the podium, no less), hopefully these numbers will shake him out of his slumber…

The latest S&P/Case-Shiller index shows that home prices in 20 U.S. cities plummeted by 18.5% in December, compared with December 2007. On the back of an 18.2% slide in November, it was the fastest decline on record and extends a decline that began in 2005. The 10-city index fared even worse, sinking by an annual 19.2%.

From its high in 2006, the 20-city index has tanked by 27%, with Phoenix, Las Vegas, and San Francisco leading the way down during December. On a national scale, the Case-Shiller index showed an 18.2% drop compared with Q4 2007.

Let’s take a look at the real estate market and see how investors could play this news…

Homebuyers Should Have Adopted The PAYGO Plan

The housing numbers came just a day after Obama proposed a PAYGO approach to government spending at the Fiscal Responsibility Summit. Simply put, it’s based on the “You don’t spend what you don’t have” concept, making cuts to fund spending plans.

Forcing the government to balance its books and pay more attention to the national debt sounds great in theory. It’s an approach that helped turn America’s federal deficit into a surplus over the 1990s and the early part of the 2000s.

But of course, the country wasn’t mired in two prolonged military conflicts, nor did it face the worst economic climate in a generation – issues that don’t discriminate when it comes to book-balancing efforts or debt levels.

And at the current rate the government is going, it’s going to have to find a lot of extra pennies buried in the couch – or make some significant cuts – because Obama is clearly determined to spend his way back into prosperity.

There’s No Place Like Home For $275 Billion

With housing however, this fiscally responsible PAYGO approach would have worked wonders for many homebuyers who now find themselves clutching for the last bit of rope. Record foreclosures (up 83% to 2.3 million in 2008, according to RealtyTrac) and slumping property prices (down a record 8.2% in 2008, according to the Federal Housing Finance Board) have eaten into Americans’ wealth and eroded consumer spending, which makes up about two-thirds of the economy.

To combat it, Obama wants to pump $275 billion into the real estate market in order to flatten out its freefall. And as I wrote last week, $75 billion of that housing aid package will go towards allowing homeowners to refinance and lower their monthly mortgage payments in a bid to slow the foreclosure rate.

Whether these efforts will work… time will tell. But check out this interesting nugget from Minyanville:

“While pundits and politicians debate the various aspects of President Obama’s $275 billion housing bailout, one piece of data proves just how misguided federal efforts to revitalize the housing market are: $275 billion could buy more than half of all American homes already in foreclosure.

“Such an undertaking would remove distressed homes from the market and spur community revitalization efforts throughout areas desperately in need of the hope they were promised in November.”

The housing recovery isn’t going to happen anytime soon. With the foreclosure rate still rising (up 18% in January), it’s still squashing prices. And with home demand very weak, there’s a big supply of excess homes on the market.

And that’s crippling this industry…

Trouble For Toll

“The past five months have been among the most difficult in U.S. economic history.”

And the award for “Most Obvious Statement” goes to…

Robert Toll, CEO of fallen homebuilder giant Toll Brothers (NYSE: TOL).

Toll was speaking on the back of a 51% plunge in his company’s first quarter revenues – a trend symptomatic among the nation’s homebuilders.

Prospective buyers aren’t buying, amid job security fears. And sellers can’t sell their homes, due to the depressed economy and market. And with the glut of unsold homes on the market and prices falling, homebuilders have no reason (and no money) to build any more. Toll says new home construction is at its lowest level in 50 years.

And profits are tanking. Analysts project a $0.30 per share first quarter loss for the company – but Toll is so concerned about the economy and uncertain about the market that it hasn’t even bothered to issue any guidance itself.

Others aren’t hanging around to participate in the carnage any more…

Insiders Are Bailing On This Builder

Recent SEC filings show that Dwight Schar, founder of NVR Inc. (NYSE: NVR) recently cashed in his housing chips, dumping 339,059 shares worth $139 million.

Smart move. He sold at an average price of $409.90 each. The stock’s current price is around $348.

He’s not the only one either. Four other company directors and the CEO have also been busily selling their holdings this month.

One razor sharp analyst called this spate of so-called “cluster selling” (which occurs during particularly weak periods) “a pretty bad signal” for investors (okay, so I’m giving that “Most Obvious Statement” award to him now).

Profit From The Housing Pain

With the National Association of Realtors announcing this morning that existing U.S. home sales defied projections for a rise and dropped by an annual 5.3% in January from December – the lowest since July 1997 – homebuilder stocks are getting knocked around again.

The median home price: Down 14.8% to $170,300 in January – the lowest price since March 2003. And 9.6 months worth of unsold housing inventory.

Whether this marks anything approaching a bottom or not remains to be seen. But in any event, homebuilders that have struggled to turn a profit over the past few years are now closer to going bust instead.

To combat the slide, homebuilders have dumped as much land as they can and trying to load up on cash instead. But in this market, that’s obviously coming at a loss. And when the assets run out… what then in a still-depressed market? Not to mention the debt that many companies have accumulated, due to excess leveraging during the boom times.

On a broad scale, you could take a look at playing the downside of sector ETFs like the SPDR S&P Homebuilders (NYSE: XHB) – already down 55% over the past year.

But if you want to look for downside in individual stocks, focus on ones whose debt-to-equity level is high and/or who are running low on cash. And when insiders are selling, that’s usually a good indication that you should do the same.

Source: How To Send Your Profits Up As America’s Homebuilders Go Down

However dire you think U.S. government’s fiscal condition has become… today we learn it’s even worse. For starters, would you invest in this business?

2008 fiscal year net operating cost: $1 trillion. Triple that of 2007. And those aren’t funky alternative accounting methods… today’s charts and numbers come directly from the 2008 Financial Report of the U.S. Government, issued yesterday.

What is “net cost”? It is “computed by subtracting earned revenue from gross cost,” the GAO explains on Page 29 of the government’s 194-page release. A layman might even call it a deficit. A layman who reads The 5 might notice it’s more than double the “official” 2008 federal deficit of $454.8 billion.

And how about this balance sheet?

God bless America!

And here… we saved the best for last … this chart, exactly as it appears in the Treasury’s report:

Our balance sheet shows a $10.7 trillion mountain of debt. In the same report, the Treasury suggested unfunded liabilities like Social Security and Medicare now exceed $43 billion. Put the two together, as we did for I.O.U.S.A., and the U.S. is in the hole for at least $53 trillion.

Late yesterday, John Williams estimated it was closer to $66 trillion. Still want to buy those 10-year notes?

By the way, “The federal government did not maintain effective internal control,” noted the GAO in the same report, “over financial reporting (including safeguarding assets) and compliance with significant laws and regulations as of Sept. 30, 2008.”

Not to worry, just some “serious financial management problems at the Dept. of Defense” and other unlawful accounting happening in Washington. But we can still trust them, right?

Oy. We encourage you to read the report yourself, which you can find here.

Fear of deflation is what has brought the Fed balance sheet so low. Unfortunately, today, U.S. officials got more ammo for defense of their spending plan:

The Labor Dept.’s consumer price index (CPI) fell 1.7% in November, the government reported today. That’s the biggest seasonally adjusted monthly fall since the department started those adjustments in 1947. Filter out adjustments, and CPI dropped 1.9%, the greatest fall since 1932.

As you’d guess, energy and gasoline prices led the way, falling 17% and 29%, respectively. On an annual basis, the government says consumer prices are up just 1.1%.

New housing starts crashed 18% last month, the Commerce Dept. said today. Now at an annual rate of 625,000, starts have slumped to their slowest pace since at least 1959, when the government started keeping track.

And yesterday, the National Association of Home Builders’ gauge of builder sentiment stayed at its record low score of 9… as in 9 points above the worst sentiment possible.

What a mess.

At least the stock market is breathing a sigh of relief this morning. The intricacies of Goldman Sachs’ balance sheet interests it far more than the government’s.

Goldman lost $2.1 billion in their fiscal fourth quarter ending Nov. 28… a notable departure from the $3.2 billion profit they pulled off this time last year.

Despite being worse than expected, Wall Street seems relieved by the news. Goldman earnings per share came in $1.24 below the Street’s expected $3.73 a share loss… but traders are buying GS anyway.

The stock popped 4% on the news and helped push major indexes up this morning. The Dow opened 75 points higher than yesterday’s loss of nearly 1%.

“No banks could ever be high quality” investments, Jeremy Grantham recently told Forbes. Grantham, if you recall, predicted early last year a “global bubble” in essentially every asset class.

Grantham was an “alarmist perma-bear” then… but the “smartest money” today.

“The most difficult decision we’ve had to make in a long time was when we started our quality fund four years ago — the question was whether banks could ever be considered high quality. All the quants in the shop were saying, ‘What do you mean? They’ve got high, stable returns.’

“But all the historians were saying, ‘Yeah, but every 15 or 20 years, the market takes half of them out and shoots them. That doesn’t happen to the Coca-Colas.’”

Today, Grantham says the big blue chips are “the cheapest part of the market.” His fund’s top holdings are Coca-Cola, Procter & Gamble, Microsoft, Wal-Mart and Johnson & Johnson.

“When stocks have managed a small rally, it doesn’t amount to much,” notes our John Wayne Burritt. “In fact, any move higher is quickly zapped by tough resistance. That’s why the S&P 500 has had little success moving outside its 12-day moving average — the red line on the chart (below) — for months.

“The downward pressure on the U.S. equity markets is still intense. It’s so intense, so deep, that it’s tough to find any real reason to even think about buying call options on stocks.

“Frankly, I wish it weren’t so. I’d like nothing more than to tell you, ‘The bottom is in,’ and that the colossal downdraft we’ve had to suffer through is finally over. But the facts simply don’t bear that out.”

“Now, there’s a chance the markets will meander around until the holidays are over. That’s usually the case, since traders and investors alike are busy with other things. And while I think that bias will certainly be to the downside, don’t expect a huge downdraft until the beginning of the new year.”

Mr. Burritt’s Easy Money Options traders are well positioned to take advantage of the pressure piling up on the broader market — the retail sector in particular. To get his advice, learn about Easy Money Options here.

Don’t forget, as a Reserve member, you get his service for free.

The U.S. dollar got shelled yesterday in anticipation of today’s super-sized rate cut by the Fed. Traders rushed out of the dollar the moment U.S. markets opened, selling the dollar index down over a point and a half, to 82.

The euro is now at a two-month high of $1.37. The yen is still strong at 90, just off a 13-year high.

“We saw a massive move in both the sterling and euro yesterday,” writes our currency trader Bill Jenkins. “The sterling was carried higher on a sympathy move as the euro began its takeoff. Both were aided by stunning Treasury info (as if the above charts above weren’t bad enough, ugh), which was released at 9:00 a.m. EST.

“October showed a dismal drop in the foreign purchases of U.S. securities. October numbers came in at $1.5 billion purchased… down from $65.4 billion in September!
Foreign investors were not interested in buying our paper in October.

“At the same time, U.S. investors pulled back on their purchases of foreign paper as well. In times of crises, everyone wants their money close to their wallet.”

A barrel of oil is up a buck, to $45, this morning. But that’s not high enough, says our oilman Byron King:

“The recent drop in oil prices to the $40s is the worst of both worlds. Consumers lose that price incentive to save, economize, be efficient, drive smarter, reorder their energy priorities. And the political will to ‘do something’ about energy declines.

“Plus, the fact that at $40-or-so per barrel, the energy industry is faced with a bunch of uneconomic investments in next-generation energy projects. Canadian tar sands development, for example, is decelerating fast. E.g., Petro-Canada’s decision last month to defer $17 billion in new investment in just one tar upgrading project. And that’s just one example out of about $30 billion total of announced cancellations and deferrals.

“You see the deceleration in offshore projects as well. There are numerous deep-water projects — from the Gulf of Mexico to Nigeria — that are getting scaled back, slid to the right on the calendar, deferred, placed in abeyance, etc.

“In many respects, we are set back a decade. If projects were marginally economic at $40-or-so oil 10 years ago, they are marginally economic today at $40-or-so oil. It’s just that we’ve spent 10 years draining out the other, older reserves that were discovered in the 1950s and 1960s (North Sea, Alaska, western Siberia, Mexico, even the OPEC fields.) The projects that got built in the last decade are now operating at break-even, or even at a loss. That’s not how you capitalize the next phases of development, now, is it?”

Gold got a $20 kick from yesterday’s dollar sell-off, and sells for around $835 today … a critical point of resistance, according to Ed Bugos.

We were on a call-in radio program in Toronto this morning. The callers were all freaking out that the Canadian government is learning bad habits from the U.S. brand of federal finance… and that eventually the U.S. would go bankrupt and take the Western world down with it.

“If the entire world is going broke,” one guy wanted to know, “where is the U.S. getting all that money?”

One of the places the U.S. borrows its money is from the oil-exporting nations. From their behavior, one could argue, we could do worse than spend their money. For example, here’s one way petrodollars are being employed on the other side of the planet: Refrigerated beaches.

Despite the biggest global slowdown of our lifetimes, “smart money” in Dubai has chosen to invest their petrodollars in heat–absorbent pipes and wind blowers that will cool the beaches of the Palazzo Versace Hotel.

“We will suck the heat out of the sand to keep it cool enough to lie on,” explained Soheil Abedian, president of Palazzo Versace. This is the kind of luxury that top people want.”

“I was rather amused,” writes a reader, “by the reader yesterday who stated that they would place a stick of the good stuff in the cord wood.

“A neighbor in England had his firewood raided quite often. His remedy was to drill a hole in a particularly knotty log, which would not be chopped into kindling, put a friendly gesture in and patch over the hole and cover it with mud and then place it on the pile of logs so that it would be one of the first to be lifted.

“We waited, and sure enough, the culprit was identified when the chimney inside the house disintegrated. He knew where he got the wood, and we knew who had taken what wasn’t his!

“Really appreciate your writings and books.”

“Whatever happened,” writes another, “to all those yoiks that used to write in accusing you of being anti-American? I never knew ignorance and bile ever stopping anyone’s mouth (or e-mail) before. Where’d they go? Or have you simply (as I advised you years ago) stopped responding to them?”

The 5: Not at all, in fact: We’ve been noticing, too… your hate mail has been remarkably supportive. Except maybe this one:

“I am a loyal reader of The 5,” the reader wrote, “and enjoy your snarky commentary on macroeconomics. However, I was appalled at the sexism displayed in Friday’s 5 in reference to the White House press secretary. If she were a good-looking man, would you have called her a ‘resident hottie’? Readers of your newsletters are not only men, and even if they were, I would hope a forward-thinking company like Agora would refrain from perpetuating the inequality of professional women in our society.

”Thanks for listening.”

The 5: You’re right. Of course, it’s a total coincidence that Bush chose Ms. Perino — an attractive, articulate young woman — as his press secretary during the depths of his unpopularity. Shame on us.

All apologies,

Addison Wiggin
The 5 Min. Forecast

Source: Redefining Deficits, Inflation Plummets, Market and Oil Forecasts, The Dububble and More!