“Stock futures rose as investors opened the books on a new quarter by betting that the latest write-downs from UBS and Deutsche Bank have put most of the worst damage to banks and brokers from the credit crisis out in the open,” says the WSJ.

What does this burst of market optimism at the beginning of the new fiscal quarter mean for invetors?

“A prudent investor could very well decide to keep his powder dry until the next trend reveals itself,” says Bill Bonner. “But thus is the big question raised… what powder?”

An investor needs a baseline. He needs to be able to figure out whether he is making progress or backsliding. An American typically keeps score in dollars. But there’s the rub… the dollar is a baseline that keeps moving.”

During the previous nine years, the benchmark Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has essentially traded flat, says William Patalon III.

“By contrast, during the same time frame, treasuries have climbed 4.7% per year and commodities and real estate have fared even better still. The message here: Don’t let ‘buy-and-hold’ become ‘buy-and-forget.’