Each year, generally in May, the Energy Information Administration publishes a less-than-eagerly-anticipated tome called the International Energy Outlook, 250+ pages of mind-numbing text, charts, graphs, and tables.
Check out this “megatrend”: 97% of global population growth over the next 40 years will occur in Asia, Africa, Latin America and the Caribbean, says the shiny new 2009 World Population Data Sheet. The headline data point was the total growth projection for the world population: 7 billion by 2011. That’s a 200 million extra people on this Earth in just two years.
Rice rationing redux? Chris Mayer on the return of rising food prices… Dan Amoss on what the Fed says versus what the Fed does… Russia sings dollar’s praises, dollar bulls stampede… Chuck Butler looks past the rhetoric… China’s latest resource grab… Iraqi oil… America’s best-selling car… with an MSRP of $60…
The Dow crashed 1.4 points yesterday, wiping out Monday’s 1.3 point moonshot. Desperate for something beyond these 0.014% “swings,” the market’s putting China in the driver’s seat today… and these guys still have quite a lead foot: Chinese auto sales soared 34% in May, year over year. According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, the Red Nation scooped up 1.12 million vehicles last month, outpacing any nation in the world.
Euphoria managed to out-run swine flu last week as the epidemic-du-jour, with “consumer” confidence jumping and the big bank stocks nudging up. The H1N1 virus fizzled for now, at least in terms of kill ratio, though we’re warned it might boomerang in the fall with a vengeance. No one was surprised to see Chrysler roll over like a possum on a county highway, but the memory of their muscle cars will linger on like a California surfing song. Here in the northeast, where Sundays are not spent at the NASCAR oval, the spring foliage reached the tenderly explosive stage and it was hard to feel bad about anything.
The Fed’s first credit crisis lawsuit… who’s suing and why, AmEx, Fannie Mae unload more financial follies… government “fixes” problem with more taxpayer dollars, Chris Mayer with a credit crisis byproduct (and opportunity) that could affect the entire world, China announces big stimulus plan… so why did commodities fall? A hefty chink in Dubai’s armor, Plus, Dan Amoss with a once-favored investment theme due to be back in the spotlight soon
Tighter credit for farmers could worsen a global food crisis as smaller crop sizes cause prices to soar. Many farmers have traditionally bought pre-season supplies such as seeds and fertilizer on credit and then paid off the debt with the proceeds from the year’s harvest. But with a growing number of farmers unable to obtain the credit they need, crop yields will suffer.
Crude oil’s masive one-day climb yesterday resurrected fears over the impact of soaring fuel costs on farming and food prices.
Other factors are at play in the volatile agricultural industry. According to Chris Mayer, “Fertile soil – good dirt – may become more important to land values than oil or minerals in the ground.”
Chris says fertile farmland has been in decline since the 1980s due to urban sprawl and soil erosion. This makes it a lucrative asset. And it makes companies like Cresud (NASDAQ:CRESY), which owns large swathes of farmland in Argentina, a great stock play.
The biggest rap about investing in emerging markets has been that they suffer from out-of-control inflation. The high prices of food and fuel undermined otherwise strong economic progress in emerging nations. On a conservative estimate, food-price rises may reduce the spending power of the urban poor and country people who buy their own food by 20%, according to the Economist.
Russia has generated considerable political ill will throughout the former Soviet Union and even in Europe by renationalizing its energy sector – ultimately using such state-run ventures as OAO Gazprom and its resource-rich position as weapons of economic diplomacy.