Long-suffering readers will be aware of our low opinion here at Notes of government economic statistics. The truth of the matter is that many of them are fudged. Don’t just take our word for it. According to Kevin Philips, former Republican Party strategist and author of Bad Money, “Ever since the 1960s, Washington has gulled its citizens and creditors by debasing official statistics, the vital instruments with which the muscle and vitality of the American economy are measured.”

For those of us who predict stuff for a living, this is one of those lovely moments in economics when we know for a fact that only one of two things will happen in the near future. We now know one thing for a fact… that in the first third of the second quarter of 2009, American retailers paid more and sold less, both by price and by unit. Simple arithmetic tells you that this means lower profits.

Stocks edged up in early morning trading today (Thursday) as an uptick in producer prices and steady earnings from Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) outweighed a surge in jobless claims last week.

Retail sales and inflation took a step backward in March, as dour consumer demand hurt the former and suppressed energy prices stalled the latter.

Live Nation Buys Ticketmaster; China Inflation Trudging Slowly; MillerCoors Profit Falls 40%; UBS Cuts Jobs, Announces Profitability; Traders Bid up Gold Options; Oil Falls Below $39;WalMart Cuts Jobs at Home Office; Cisco Raises $4 Billion

Fertilizer producers have been whacked by falling prices. But Matt Weinschenk says long-term food production will have to increase rapidly to keep pace with demand in the coming decades. And that means big business for companies like CF Industries’ (NYSE:CF).

Prices for food in U.S. grocery stores jumped 6.6% last year – the biggest spike since 1980 – underscoring yet again that inflation is a much bigger problem than government officials, or most economists, say it will be.

If you only looked at Saskatchewan, you wouldn’t know there was a global recession going on says Chris Mayer. The Canadian province is rich in relatively cheap arable farmland. And this means the region could be at the start of a multi-year boom as global demand for grains soars in the coming years.

Gold hit two historic milestones in 2008. First, in early March, the “yellow metal” hit its all-time high of $1,030 an ounce. Just three months later, the price of gold for December delivery had plummeted to $681 an ounce, a 21-month low and 33.9% drop from its record high. Most gold bugs were equal parts puzzled and broken-hearted.

Some commodities are due a strong rebound, says Manraaj Singh. The underlying fundamentals are largely unchanged from July, when many resources were posting record highs. Manraaj says crude oil prices could double by the end of 2009, while agricultural prices will also soar.