Yesterday, we had a couple of Fed Heads talking, but the Big Kahuna stood out and moved the markets with his statements… Here’s the skinny…

Big Ben was giving a speech, and said, “The Fed will monitor closely the currencies, and the Fed’s policies will ensure that the dollar is strong.” Now, when he first uttered those words, the dollar got bought and the non-dollar currencies were sold… But then, a few of us had this feeling… It was a feeling that we had heard all this before… And there – in the archives, circa June 2008 – Bernanke said, “In collaboration with our colleagues at the Treasury, we continue to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets.” Wait! We won’t get fooled again!

In June 2008, his statements spooked the markets into believing the Fed was really going to do something to bolster the dollar… But when nothing came along, the dollar REALLY got sold until the financial meltdown of August 2008… I mean… What has the Fed done in the past 1 1/2 years to “bolster the dollar”? Near zero interest rates that will remain in place for longer than they should… Quantitative easing… A bloated balance sheet of toxic bonds.

You could see the V-8 moments on traders’ faces when they realized, yesterday, that all this had been said before, and nothing came of it, so… We won’t get fooled again!

So, then traders reversed their buying of the dollar and sent the dollar to the woodshed. You should have seen the reversal… It was amazing…

Click here to read the rest of Mr. Butler’s article.

Traders are awaiting fresh direction from the foreign exchange markets after a meeting of G8 leaders later this week.

Spot gold was bid at $922.65 an ounce at 1544 GMT, against $924.00 an ounce late in New York on Monday, having earlier touched a high of $931.55.

U.S. gold futures for August delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange eased $1.20 to $923.10 an ounce.

With physical demand sluggish despite a price dip, the gold market is largely being driven by currency moves, traders said.

The precious metal edged lower on Tuesday as the dollar  recovered earlier losses against a basket of currencies. The euro, which was earlier lifted by better-than-expected German factory orders, retreated to turn lower.

“The pick-up in the dollar has put some pressure on gold values today,” said David Wilson, metals analyst at Societe Generale. “All commodities are a little weaker, with oil off as well (and) base metals prices still slipping too.”

“Investment demand for gold has stalled, and that has been the key support for gold for much of the first half,” he added.

A stronger dollar reduces interest in gold as a currency hedge, and makes the metal more expensive for holders of other currencies.

The market is looking for any comments on the dollar’s role as the global reserve currency at the Group of Eight leaders’ meeting starting on Wednesday, which could impact on the foreign exchange markets and consequently on gold.

“We have the G8 this week where there is potential for some discussion about the reserve currency… which could have an impact on the currency markets and indirectly on the (gold) price,” said Simon Weeks, director of precious metals at the Bank of Nova Scotia.

WEAKER

Technically, the picture is looking weaker, with gold’s trade down through the 100-day moving average opening up the potential for a move down to $915, Weeks added.

Investment demand remained relatively soft, with holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , falling 0.36 tonnes on Monday.

Switzerland’s Zurich Cantonal Bank, however, reported modest inflows into its gold and silver ETFs last week.

Physical demand for bullion bars has improved slightly in the last week or so, dealers say, but is far from its peak.

Among other precious metals, silver was at $13.13 an ounce against $13.24. Platinum was at $1,131.50 an ounce against $1,143, while palladium stood at $238.50 against $239.

Both platinum group metals have suffered from the downturn in the car industry, their main consumer. Any sign of a recovery in the sector could trigger a turnaround, analysts said.

LONDON, July 7 (Reuters)

Speaking via satellite at the International Monetary Conference in Barcelona, Spain, Bernanke said the Fed is working with the Treasury to “carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets.” The Fed Chair said he was aware the effect of the dollar’s decline on inflation and price expectations, Bloomberg News reported.

Also, interest rates are currently “well positioned” to promote both growth and stable prices, he added.

“I can’t recall such a strong defense of the dollar from a Fed chairman,” Sophia Drossos, a currency strategist at Morgan Stanley (MS) who used to work at the New York Fed, where she helped manage the central bank’s foreign-exchange holdings, told Bloomberg. “The Fed is putting its marker down in letting the market know that a weaker dollar would be detrimental.”

Ordinarily, the state of the greenback would fall under the Treasury’s watchful eye, but Bernanke’s comments show the Fed chief is aware of the effect the aggressive rate-slashing campaign of the past several months has had on global currencies. The dollar has dropped 16% against the euro, driving up the cost of dollar-denominated commodities such as oil.

“The challenges that our economy has faced over the past year or so have generated some downward pressures on the foreign exchange value of the dollar, which have contributed to the unwelcome rise in import prices and consumer price inflation,” Bernanke said.

He went on to acknowledge the Fed’s commitment to “ensuring that the dollar remains a strong and stable currency.”

The comments from the Fed chairman gave an immediate boost to the dollar, as it climbed to $1.545 against the euro and commanded 105.3 against the yen in mid-afternoon trading.

Analysts, as well as Fed futures, are pointing to a Fed on pause at the June meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC). It is expected the FOMC will vote to hold rates steady, especially in light of the minutes of the April meeting, which revealed the last vote to reduce the Fed Funds rate 25 basis points was a close call for many.

At least one Fed member has gone on record as being against further cuts. Dallas Fed President Richard W. Fisher is the only FOMC policymaker to “dissent” three times on prior votes to lower the central bank’s key interest rate. Fisher has gone so far as to suggest holding rates steady may not be enough to fight current price pressures.

“If inflationary developments and, more important, inflation expectations continue to worsen, I would expect a change of course in monetary policy to occur sooner rather than later, even in the face of an anemic” U.S. economy, Fisher said during a speech in San Francisco last week.

Source: Fed Chair Comments Boost Greenback