David Galland (Casey Research):

After a relaxing Thanksgiving break, I anticipated to return to work in a lighter frame of mind. However, the following item from FOX News crushed that hope right away:

Lawmakers Propose ‘War Surtax’ to Pay for Troop Increase in Afghanistan

Two top Democrats say they want to impose a new tax on the wealthy to finance any increase in U.S. troops for the Afghanistan war. 

Rep. David Obey, D-Wis., chairman of the purse string-controlling House Appropriations Committee, is calling the idea a “war surtax.” He said that just as the federal government is expected to pay for its proposed intervention in the health care sector with new taxes, any escalated involvement in Afghanistan should come with a payment plan. 

“If we have to pay for the health care bill, we should pay for the war as well … by having a war surtax,” Obey told ABC News in an interview that aired Monday. “The problem in this country with this issue is that the only people that has to sacrifice are military families and they’ve had to go to the well again and again and again and again, and everybody else is blithely unaffected by the war.” 

Readers of my free missive, Casey’s Daily Dispatch, know I’m vehemently opposed to the doomed adventure in Afghanistan. On that front alone, the idea of a war tax is like a shard of glass in my eye.

But it’s even worse than that. It shows just how degraded this country has become – picking the pockets of the productive is now pretty much the only remaining source of funding the administration and its allies can imagine. 

Just to be sure we keep this in perspective: At this moment, if you earn more than $250,000 a year (which isn’t what it used to be, given the steady erosion of inflation over the last 30 years), you will pay federal income taxes of about 35%, no estate taxes, and a 15% capital gains tax should the money you put at risk in the market return a profit.  

As soon as next year – if the government moves up the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, as I very much expect them to – the top tax bracket will go to 39%. On top of that, the current healthcare legislation will add a 5.4% surcharge. Then, add in the Democrats’ proposed 5% war tax. So straight up we’re talking 49%.

Then there’s a near doubling of capital gains taxes, from 15% to as high as 28%. And, of course, the return of the estate tax.

But that’s just for starters, because everywhere you look states and municipalities are raising taxes and fees, and attorney generals, taking a page out of Caligula’s playbook, are casting about for their next deep-pocketed victim.

At the end of the day, the top tax rate in the U.S., starting as early as next year, will soar way over 50% of income. While further number crunching is required, it is a very safe assumption that top income earners will soon be paying over 65% of their income in taxes.

Which is to say, if you are in a top tax bracket, every penny you earn between January 1 and August 25 will go straight into the coffers of one layer of government or another.  

And this while more than 40% of Americans pay no income taxes at all.

This is just another symptom of the single biggest problem now facing the U.S. (and for that matter, the world): the ballooning size and cost of government. And there are no speed bumps in sight.

Even so, endless complaining won’t really do anything other than raise the blood pressure. So, what can we actually do about it? Some ideas:

1. Buy gold. Unless and until there is an angry upwelling of popular discontent at the growing size of government – and it has to be far more substantive than just a few vocal talk radio jocks, or even 100,000 or so people peacefully gathering on the Mall in Washington DC – the government will continue to grow, or even just keep running at current levels, which means the destruction of the dollar. Many tangible assets will do well, but their intrinsic value as money means gold (and silver) will do best.

As I write, gold has again broken to a new, non-inflation-adjusted high. As with all markets, it will fall back now and again, but the trend is very much up.

2. Buy gold shares. The leverage in the high-quality gold shares can boost your returns by a factor of 2X to 10X, and more. Again, there will be setbacks, but shares in the right companies with the right projects will trend higher and higher until the Mania phase kicks in, and then things will get really interesting.

3. Be smart about taxes. Keep an eye on Pelosi’s tax trap – if you have appreciated assets that qualify for long-term capital gains, consider selling them before year-end to lock in the lower capital gains tax. Likewise, if you run a business and you can pull any income into this year, versus next, consider doing so.

4. Diversify globally. Why do it? The short version is that it’s a big world out there, and there are a lot of places that are incredibly beautiful, safe, and unbelievably inexpensive. For many non-U.S. citizens, expatriating means you’ll pay no income tax, but even if you are a U.S. citizen, there are substantial tax benefits in moving offshore. And what you can save in cheaper everyday living allows you to live like royalty, for a fraction of the cost. Which means you can save more.

Personally, I favor Argentina. Some years ago I went on a three-year quest to find paradise on earth, and Argentina was ultimately the hands-down winner.

5. Recognize the bureaucracy for what it is. These are not “public servants” but rather an entrenched interest group that is actively engaged in a systematic effort to look after itself, with no regard for the damage it’s doing to your family finances and to the country.

Now, there are two schools of thought as to how you deal with the bureaucrats. My dear friend and partner, Doug Casey, would tell you to take every opportunity to let the bureaucrats know you hold them in low esteem. For example, by asking airport security personnel how old they were before they realized they wanted to make a career out of pawing through people’s underwear.

The second approach is to accept that the bureaucrats, backed by the voting masses, hold most of the cards at this point. Poking at them with a stick risks unnecessary aggravation and worse. So, keeping a low profile and going about your business is certainly a rational choice.

Of course, there’s no better way of maintaining a low profile than moving to another country where you’ll be welcomed as a visitor and not viewed as a serf.

Is there no hope? One obvious scenario is for the Democrats to lose control of either the House or the Senate come next November’s elections, thereby returning the nation to some form of political gridlock. The best of all worlds, in my view. And the way things are heading, this is now a certainty.

But before you get overly excited about the prospects of a political solution, don’t forget the role the Republicrats have played in bringing the nation to this sorry state over the past several decades. If you’re holding out for an outbreak of capitalism or other signs of fiscal sanity once Republicans regain some modicum of political power, you are delusional. They may package their programs in different-colored paper, but when you rip away the wrappings, you’ll find the same statism and the same promises of a chicken in every pot.

Look after yourself – no one else is going to do it for you.

Gold has just hit a new record-high… and the small-cap Canadian explorers with good-sized deposits are sure to be dragged along into the stratosphere. In the current issue of Casey’s International Speculator, Editor Louis James names eight junior gold miners that – due to their top-quality assets – are destined to become takeover targets for the big players in the gold industry.

Get in today and watch your investment double or triple tomorrow, completely risk-free with our 3-month, 100% money-back guarantee. Learn more here.

In a report to be released this week, the Obama administration will boost its 10-year projection for the federal budget deficit to about $9 trillion – an increase of roughly $2 trillion, or 29%, from its prior projection, Fox News reported over the weekend, citing a source from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB).

The new cumulative deficit projection – for 2010-2019 – replaces the administration’s previous estimate of $7.108 trillion. Changes in budget projections – whether they result in a surplus or a deficit – are often refined as economic conditions change. This new projection was necessary because the recession has gone on for so long, causing federal tax receipts to plunge – and because the economic rebound will be prolonged and weak, resulting in lower forecasts for future federal revenue.

Although most of the news media focuses on the Obama administration’s $787 stimulus measure, the fact is that the federal government was pushing forward with nearly $12 trillion in rebound-related financing commitments, Money Morning reported this spring.

The administration earlier this year predicted that unemployment would peak at about 9% without the financial-jump-starting initiatives and 8% with them. But U.S. joblessness zoomed skyward anyway, and stood at 9.4% last month, although many economists now say that a double-digit unemployment rate – one of 10% or more – is easily possible.

The nation’s debt now stands at $11.7 trillion. In the scheme of things, that’s more important than talking about the deficit, which only looks at a one-year slice of bookkeeping and ignores previous debt that is still outstanding.

Back in June, the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office (CBO) predicted that the federal deficit would reach $1.825 trillion this year. The CBO and the Obama administration will tomorrow (Tuesday) separately release new budget-deficit predictions. Last Wednesday, a senior White House official, speaking on the condition of anonymity, told The Associated Press that the administration estimate would reach $1.58 trillion – or triple last year’s deficit.

The report for the budget year that ends Sept. 30 also will predict Washington to spend $3.653 trillion this year, although revenue will reach only $2.074 trillion, the unnamed senior official told The AP.

“Whether it’s $1.6 trillion or $1.8 trillion, it’s pretty bad,” said Robert Bixby, executive director of the bipartisan fiscal watchdog The Concord Coalition, told Fox News. “I hope no one tries to spin that as good news.”

Total U.S. debt has soared to $11.7 trillion (the budget deficit is the “shortfall” in the annual deficit, while the debt is cumulative), having balloned to that level as a result of the multiple annual deficits that have become the norm, it seems.

Market Matters

Just who is the world’s great economic superpower these days?  At times, it seems, “as China goes, so go the world equity markets.”  Early in the week, the Shanghai Composite Index (SSE) suffered its largest percentage decline since late 2008, with the index plunging more than 20% for the month on concerns about the sustainability of China’s recovery.

The global markets watched as the Japan, Europe, and the U.S. indexes followed the SSE downward.  By mid-week, however, all eyes were back on the domestic market as another sell-off in China was overshadowed by signs of growing U.S. economic strength and reports of enhanced energy demand.

The global bailout plans moved into a new stage as the Swiss government relinquished its control over banking giant UBS AG (NYSE: UBS) by selling off its investment for a $1.13 billion profit, or a 30% annualized return.  While the U.S. government has yet to reap similar benefits, several major banks have paid off their Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loans and the CEO for one of the poster children for financial distress, American International Group Inc. (NYSE: AIG), announced that his firm should be able to pay back the government and may even be able to “do something for shareholders as well.”

While many auto dealers complained about the rebate process on the “Cash for Clunkers” program, General Motors Corp. (NYSE:GRM) stepped forward and will begin providing advances to participants who continue to wait for the government to move through its traditional red-tape.

The healthcare debate (and political infighting) raged on (complete with widespread town hall civil disobedience).  Rumors that the government would remove its public-health-plan option sent related health-care stocks soaring early in the week, though the jury remains out as to how this will really play after U.S. President Barack Obama guaranteed approval of an overhaul and then bashed congressional Republicans for their efforts in blocking any plan whatsoever.

On the earnings front, the housing sector received mixed signals as Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) bested expectations, while rival Lowe Companies Inc. (NYSE: LOW) fell short and reduced its outlook. Cost-cutting was widespread among retailers as The TJX Cos. Inc. (NYSE: TJX), The Gap Inc. (NYSE: GPS), and even Target Corp. (NYSE: TGT) benefited from increased margins, though sales remained lackluster at best.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) struggled in its PC and printer-business segments, though management expects a healthy rebound in its fiscal fourth quarter.

Fixed income benefited from some early “flight-to-quality” trades and a report that showed strong foreign demand for U.S. Treasuries in June (despite ongoing rumors to the contrary).  Stocks fell sharply in sympathy with the China sell-off, though buyers reemerged in a big way on positive signs from the earnings and economic reports.

Likewise, oil prices shook off some early week negativity and surged to 2009 highs, as a surprising plunge in inventory levels revealed growing demand – perhaps to coincide with the beginning of a global economic rebound?  On that note, U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke’s comments about the prospects for recovery (though slow at first) were extremely well-received as investors seemed to all but forget about following Shanghai and the U.S. markets assumed the leadership role once again.  The major domestic indexes shrugged off the weak start and pushed to new highs for the year.

Market/ Index	Year Close (2008)	Qtr Close (06/30/09)	Previous Week (08/14/09)	Current Week (08/21/09)	YTD Change
Dow Jones Industrial	8,776.39	8,447.00	9,321.40	9,505.96	+8.31%
NASDAQ	1,577.03	1,835.04	1,985.52	2,020.90	+28.15%
S&P 500	903.25	919.32	1,004.09	1,026.13	+13.60%
Russell 2000	499.45	508.28	563.90	581.51	+16.43%
Global Dow	1526.21	1,629.31	1,803.83	1,819.50	+19.22%
Fed Funds	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0 bps
10 yr Treasury (Yield)	2.24%	3.52%	3.56%	3.56%	+132 bps

Economically Speaking

In addition to the Home Depot and Lowe’s earnings reports, housing news was prevalent during the week and the results were somewhat confusing.  The National Association of Home Builders reported that its Housing Market Index climbed for the second month in a row and reached its highest level in over a year.  Likewise, applications for mortgages increased for the third straight month on declining interest rates.

However, foreclosure rates remain on the rise and, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, 13.2% of mortgages are delinquent or worse (in foreclosure); in fact, subprime mortgages are no longer the only area of concern as the unsettled labor picture has prompted homeowners with strong credit to fall behind on their prime mortgages as well.

Though housing starts fell in July, the decline was entirely attributable to apartment activity and construction of single-family homes actually rose for the fifth straight month.  Additionally, existing home sales in July surged by more than 7% as buyers took advantage of the misfortunes of others (in foreclosure), though prices continue to fall because of transactions related to these distressed properties.

In non-housing news, separate regional reports from the New York and Philadelphia Feds boosted the outlook for the domestic manufacturing sector and the overall economy.  Wholesale inflation remained benign as the producer price index (PPI) fell by a wider-than-expected 0.9% in July and prices have plummeted over the past 12 months by the largest percentage (6.8%) since records have been kept, dating back to 1947.

Be forewarned: Oil just hit a 2009-high.

U.S. Federal Reserve policymakers met for their annual conference and Fed Chair Bernanke shared a favorable assessment about the recovery process from “the most severe financial crisis since the Great Depression.”  Of course, Bernanke tempered some of his remarks and reiterated that, while the recession seems to be coming to an end, the rebound would likely be slow, with unemployment remaining a concern.

Bernanke also spoke of the need for financial regulatory reform in order to ensure the current financial debacle isn’t repeated.  The Fed also extended its Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) lending program in order to help stem the potential “challenges” that remain among commercial mortgage-backed securities.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: In the Race for a U.S. Economic Rebound, Growing Debt and Budget Deficits Remain the Biggest Possible Roadblock