Now, I don’t care who makes what. That’s between bosses and their worker bees. But I do get a little peeved when Uncle Sam tries to tell some worker he can’t get paid per his contract.

Before you go shouting about how Washington saved Wall Street and therefore we, as taxpayers, get a say over pay, let me ask you this. Does your mortgage company tell you what color to paint little Johnnie’s room? Does your car loan provider tell you how fast to drive? Does your health insurance provider tell control your diet?

Didn’t think so.

If some congressman came barging in this office right now, demanding I slash my pay, his goons would have to hold me back as I try to kick the lunatic’s shins. But if the owner of the company came with the same request, I’d have no choice but to open my wallet (and possibly refresh my resume).

But that’s the way business works. The guys that own the joint make the decisions, not the banks and certainly not government. If the workers don’t like it, they leave. It’s supply and demand and nothing else.

As taxpayers, if we want to be angry about anything, we should be angry that our government used our money to cover somebody else’s dangerous bets.

But now that Goldman shareholders are asking the company’s top brass to reduce the size of the corporate bonus pool and pass the money onto shareholders, the company had better act. If not, the free markets are going to take charge.

Shareholders are going to hit the sell button. Prices will drop. Capital will be reduced. And Goldman executives will be in pinch once again.

That’s the way the business world really works, no matter what Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank want.

When Obama was knocking on the door, Goldman said go away. But now that Mr. Common Shareholder is on the line, next Friday’s paychecks will have a few less zeroes.

Doesn’t that make you feel good? Capitalism is still alive.

***I have my eye on China and its quickly growing, yet fragile, economy.

Earlier today, I wrote a piece for TodaysFinancialNews.com that helps illustrate the potential of the Chinese markets. Instead of nervously awaiting every bit of economic data to hit the Street, savvy international investors are racking up big gains.

Here’s a bit of what I wrote:

You could say it is the tale of two economies. The best of times in Asia, the worst of times here in the States.

While domestic investors wonder when some rogue piece of data will kick out the wobbly legs supporting the top-heavy equities market, savvy Chinese investors are raking in gains from an economy soaring ahead a 7% per year clip.

Where would you rather have your money?

A look at two of today’s winning stocks will help you decide.

Zumiez is a sports-related retailer based in Everett, Washington. With 343 stores in over 30 states, its operations are as exposed to the nation’s economy as it gets. A look at the company’s third-quarter results prove how low our expectations have gotten.

Over the past three months, the $375 million company racked up profits of $5.1 million, down from last year’s corresponding figure of $6.8 million. The earnings-per-share figure of $0.17 beat expectations of $0.15, which helps explain why shares are up by over 10% so far today.

But that’s the only reason investors have to celebrate.

The company’s fourth-quarter expectations leave little room for joy. After booking revenues of $113 million last quarter, the company expects sales of just $122 million to $126 million over the next three months, which include the critical holiday shopping period. Last year’s Q4 was worth sales of $125.

Analysts, which were expecting a figure closer to $131 million, have plenty of reasons to feel disappointed with the news.

Of course, Zumiez is not the only retailer worried about a slower-than-expected fourth quarter. Keep reading here.

*** Finally, I cannot help but smile when I see the Associated Press reporting that gas prices have fallen by more than 15% so far this month. Here’s a hot tip for their reporters: It ain’t over yet!

As you probably know, over at TFN Strategic Trader, we’ve been all over this story. In fact, just yesterday we took profits on one of our four gas-related plays. But we didn’t dump it all. Instead, we sold half of our position, locking in gains of 400%.

Now we’re playing with the house’s money.

Want to know the move that led to these massive gains? Easy… read all about it here.

Well, it turns out my ultra-liberal, straight-ticket voting, French-guy marrying sister has a verifiable case of the pig flu. And guess who I had dinner with on Thursday night? You betcha, big sis.

There we have it: cause and effect.

Fortunately, my head case was short-lived. By the time my venison sausage and eggs were off the front burner on Saturday morning, I was back to my old self, almost knocking my O.J. off the table stomping my fist over a local political battle.

In Friday’s edition of notes, I quoted the following paragraph from Callum Robert’s book The Unnatural History of the Sea:

If any trawling ground be over-fished, the trawlers themselves will be the first persons to feel the evil effect of their own acts. Fish will become scarcer, and the produce of a day’s work will diminish until it is no longer remunerative. When this takes place (and it will take place long before the extinction of the fish) trawling in this locality will cease, and the fish will be undisturbed…

I used it to show that unregulated free markets often fail to self-police until it is too late.

More importantly, I promised to discuss how regulations are equal failures when it comes to the subject of protection from ignorant and greedy market forces.

I can list dozens of examples, but I will stick to the aquatic motif.

Recently, the federal government enacted an emergency ban on sea bass fishing here on the East Coast. From Cape Hatteras to all points north, the staple of the recreational fishing industry is off limits.

“Big whoop,” you say. “There’s other fish in the sea.”

That’s the problem. There are other fish in the sea, like tautog.

You see, NOAA tried to remedy the effect, not the cause.

The cause of the problem is there are too many greedy fishermen. But no government entity would ever want to anger somebody by telling them to put their $50k boat on blocks, so they simply close a specific fishery.

Meanwhile, the fleet, with its limitless supply of greed, moves a couple of miles and targets another species. Along the mid-Atlantic, the next species is tautog, a slow-growing habitat sensitive species.

Thanks to NOAA’s short-sightedness and must-act-now mentality, tautog are witnessing fishing pressure like never before. It is unsustainable, no matter how you measure it.

I have already given up hope on catching the species next year. Like I said on Friday, given the chance, fisherman will catch the very last of a species and then start asking, “now what?”

If you paid attention to last fall’s meltdown, you know much of the problem stemmed from the derivatives market.

The market for credit default swaps, mortgage-backed securities and a host of other credit-based derivatives went largely unregulated without notice until the weight of massive credit collapsed the shoulders of the market.

Now that hundreds of billions of dollars in wealth have disappeared, folks like Nancy Pelosi and Barney Frank want to regulate the market.

I say don’t bother wasting the ink.

The markets have already caught the last fish and will simply move onto something else. It always does.

Unless Congress bans all investing or the amounts we can stick in the market, bubbles are going to inflate and bubbles are going to pop.

The more the government tries to regulate the natural forces of the market, fear and greed, the bigger the bubbles will get and the harder they will fall.

Get used to it. It’s the way things work.

*** In Friday’s edition, I asked for comments on the notion of regulations. Wow. Ask and you shall receive!

Oddly enough, except for the guy that called me a commie (jokingly, of course), the response was quite bi-partisan. Overall, as was expected, the tone was overly anti-regulation.

By now, those of us that have paid any attention have learned regulations just won’t cut it. Now, if somebody would let Congress now.

Here’s a few of the most telling emails I received. Keep them coming.

“The problem is deeper than regulation as you know. Structurally it has been skewed and morphed into a large horse racing parlor where we place bets on the horses. Marx postulated that ‘man had become disassociated with his work’ and I believe the investors no longer invest, but  place bets on companies. They are no longer ‘investing in the company’. This was not what was intended when the word was ‘investing’.

“Another issue is the legal system we use has shifted from a ‘Constitutional’ based law to a ‘case’ based law. This helps make the system overly complex and contingent on the specific words and phrases used, and judges interpretation of this wording.

“Complexity leads to failure and we have ‘vested’ interests in keeping complex.  More regulation will not help.” –  Dave E.

“Get the wolves out of the sheep pen!

“Those who caused the meltdown should be fired or jailed, not running the institutions, agencies, and departments responsible for what we are facing for the next decade (or more). Legislators should not be permitted to legislate this problem away, they should be empowered only to assemble a committee of real experts to debate and recommend a course of action.

“Maybe in this way our representatives will be unable to do things like repeal Glass Steagall, enable Barney Frank to overextend loaning money to home buyers who can’t afford to pay rent, etc., etc.,etc.” — Bill S.

“The key to the dilemma is this.  Stop trying to find an ‘ism’ to subscribe to.  Life is a lot less crazy-making if a person isn’t trying to make sense of a situation by looking to ideologies such as liberalism or conservatism for explanation or guidance.” Kirk W.

“Unfettered free markets always devolve into feudalism. Excessive regulation always leads to collectivism. These are the two extremes in distribution of wealth. History has demonstrated that every society is on a watershed which tends to move slowly toward one or the other.” – Peter A.

More on the subject tomorrow. For now, keep the comments coming.

During a credit deflation, things get cheaper. Without lines of credit, people can’t bid things up and prices fall to their “cash on hand” level. Given a long enough time, things settle out and prices relative to wages actually become attractive. But it’s a long and bumpy ride from here to there. The trick is to maintain roughly the same level of income as others take wage cuts or lose their jobs entirely. Add this to the general lack of credit and you find that the cost of living drops dramatically. You might have felt poor a couple of years ago when you earned $50,000 per year, but if you can hold onto that income, why, in the next couple of years you could feel positively wealthy!

The holding on part is where it gets a little tricky.

It’s tricky because when credit evaporates, less goods and services can be bought. A lot of jobs providing those goods and services become unnecessary. Layoffs become all the rage. You wind up with a lot of formerly employed people with no jobs and no money and no attractive prospects. Doesn’t seem fair, but that’s what happens when hopes and livelihoods get propped up on the shifting sand of credit expansion.

When credit vanishes, actual cash becomes king. Promises to pay take a back seat to actual ability to pay. Exactly what are we calling “cash”, though? God and the free markets like gold and silver because they’re relatively rare, easily divisible, and it’s very difficult to control their supply, and hence innately honest. Governments prefer colorful bits of paper that they issue precisely because they can print up as many as they need.

While credit isn’t wealth, neither is money. Money is just a commodity we use to represent and exchange wealth. It’s rather vital to have a measuring tool that resists stretching and deformation or else you get into all sorts of trouble. Gold and silver tend to resist stretching; paper money begs for it.

During the last really big credit bust in this country cash was very strictly tied to gold and silver. The exchange rates were fixed; you got one ounce of gold for a twenty-dollar bill (plus 67 pennies). Fifty-four cents got you an ounce of silver. So when the credit bubble popped and prices slumped, they did so in terms of a dollar that was a reliable proxy for gold and silver. How things have changed!

First FDR devalued the dollar and a little later Nixon killed it. The currency we have today is a hoax wrapped in a lie. It isn’t tied to anything. The old dollar was a certificate that could be exchanged for a very specific amount of gold. The one we’ve had since 1971 is a promise from the U.S. government…and little paper promises from governments have a dismal history.

You may have noticed that during our recent gargantuan credit bust people again ran to the dollar. They expressed a very strong preference for greenbacks over…well, just about everything else in the wide world. But running to the dollar for shelter these days is like seeking protection from the man who is shooting at you…or running from the doorway of a burning building to the second floor.

During the last depression, the dollar’s tie to gold limited the ability of our communist dictator to goose the money supply. Roosevelt had to coerce the citizenry to give him their gold under pain of imprisonment so he could allow for some easing of the dollar’s value. This time around, FDR II can just have central banks conjure more up as much cash as deemed necessary out of nothingness because the dollar isn’t tied to gold anymore.

Inflation is a slow burn on its default setting, which governments enjoy so much. It’s why they insist on monopolizing currency in the first place. But let inflation go on long enough and the currency becomes worthless. Sometimes events conspire to accelerate the race to worthlessness. Wars, laughably unpayable national debt, financial panics…that sort of thing.

The government would prefer an endless boom, even though such a thing—like individual biological immortality or perpetual motion — just isn’t possible. The central bank gets things started by expanding credit. Good times ensue. Everyone is employed and everyone lives beyond their means and bids up the prices of assets with money they don’t really have. This can’t go on forever (and never does!), but governments hate to see the ravages of the inevitable contraction after their artificially-induced boom. States love for their citizens to be blissfully distracted with fantasy, especially the really unsustainable sort.

So what is a government to do when it wants people to spend and they just refuse? When the rubes refuse to play ball and insist on hanging on to their savings, all you have to do is make saving less attractive than spending. Increase the money supply…make the money people hold less valuable…encourage them to get rid of it. Set the currency ablaze and ferret the consumers out.

Around these parts, we subscribe to the view that savings are essential for capital investment, but politicians side with Keynes on this and believe savings are for suckers; debt is where it’s at. And if private debt has brought the population to its knees, then the obvious answer is a dollop of public debt to kill their currency and finish them off!

It’s not just the amount of dollars that the central bank produces, however; it’s the amount that actually gets circulated and the speed at which it moves through the economy. When the general populace senses that the dollars they’re holding are losing value (because the central bank is accelerating the increase in supply), they try very hard to get rid of them as quickly as possible. They trade them for things that will hold their value.

The real trouble with hyperinflation isn’t that it devalues the currency, however; it’s that it devalues souls. It leads people astray. It removes the moral stops. It changes all sense of proportion. Like a sadistic, juvenile prankster, government spikes the punch with a little quantitative easing and before you know it all bets are off. People drunkenly succumb to the baser instincts they normally keep in check. The thin layer of restraint provided by the neo-cortex is broken and all sorts of reptilian longings are indulged…and consequences be damned.

Trying to invest and plan for the future under a fiat currency regime is like trying to be witty and convincing while drunk. Inevitably the wrong things are said and done because perception and judgment are hopelessly warped.

During a hyperinflation, the majority of the population who counted on the scrip they were forced to deal with and save can only feel angry desperation as all their savings turn to ashes practically overnight. The reward for personal thrift coupled with trust in the largest institution around—the state—is loss and future uncertainty. Under such conditions, societies tend to come apart fairly rapidly. Crime rises as savings and incomes disappear. Ethnic tensions may mount. There is a bull market in internal strife and personal misery.

People generally rather consume than produce or delay gratification. This is why the masses can be lied to with paper. But the universe is a weighing machine, not a voting booth. Wishes don’t trump reality. And disaster must befall those who expect something for nothing. We here in the Whiskey Room like to point the finger at governments, but we also have to acknowledge that thing in human nature that allows governments to exist in the first place and to flourish.

For the past decade in the U.S. easy credit — pretend money — led people to put their houses up as collateral on debts that could only be paid back if real estate prices kept getting propped up by more easy credit. Then they used this debt to finance vacations and trips to big retails chains to buy things that would not be used to produce or store wealth. And this was just an expansion of credit!

When the actual money supply expands in order to ease debt repayments…well, all sorts of screwy things happen. That’s what generally spurs the vulgar expansion of the money supply: the political desire to ease massive debt repayment, both public and private…that and war. When you see a nation living beyond its means, watch out; its currency will be thrown under the bus when the bill comes due.

Destroying the currency, however, means that the debts really weren’t repaid…because they were paid back with dollars that aren’t worth the value of those that were initially borrowed. It’s a big swindle and everyone involved knows it. But it goes on anyway with all the nasty consequences you’d expect from such massive debauchery, delusion and theft.

The list of countries that have suffered the ravages of paper money hyperinflation is pretty darned long…and ironically it starts with the very first country to give paper money a try, long, long ago. China’s Yuan Dynasty’s little experiment with paper money ended badly. In fact, it helped end the Yuan Dynasty.

For the first time in history, currencies everywhere are merely paper…including the world’s reserve currency. The potential…the inevitability…of a worldwide bonfire of these little paper vanities staggers the imagination. The conflagration will be mesmerizing in its size and intensity. You may even find yourself enjoying the view…if you make it a point to be standing far enough away not to be consumed.

Source:  The Joys of Hyperinflation

On January 20, millions of Americans uttered the words, “I thought I would never see the day.” They were proud to see a new leader sworn in and were optimistic, expecting change and full of hope for the nation’s future.

Now it is my turn to utter the cliché phrase.  I never thought I would see the day when the American government seized control of the free market, but it is here and it has happened. I expected lots and lots of restrictions on the nation’s businesses with a Democratic Congress and an ultra-liberal president, but I never thought I would witness our nation’s top official limit an American’s pay.

When President Obama officially limited the pay for scores of American executives to $500,000 he officially opened the gates to hell. Forget our leaking borders and illegal immigrants. Now we have socialist demons crashing the gates.

Since its creation, this country has functioned on the belief a man must be paid what he is worth. It was up to the free markets to determine what a worker received in compensation each week. If he felt he deserved more than he was offered, he moved on.

The last time the government interfered with wages in such a drastic way, we entered a nasty civil war that destroyed countless lives and nearly destroyed a great nation.

Washington secedes from reality

Now, I am not saying a $500,000 yearly salary is remotely close to the horrific nature of slavery, but I am saying the government’s interference in the free market is just as dangerous and works to destroy what so many Americans have died trying to protect.

With just one swipe of his pen, one politically motivated man has changed this nation’s business world forever.

The mainstream media is focused on companies like Bank of America (NYSE:BAC) and Citigroup (NYSE:C). The way these companies have bled cash over the past year have tricked many ill-informed Americans into believing it is alright for the government to dictate executive pay.

But what so many of this nation’s headline readers are overlooking is the dozens of smaller banks that were quietly forced into agreeing to the TARP terms. Remember when Paulson corralled leaders into a Washington boardroom, closed the doors and shouted, “Okay, listen up. Sign these papers and you can go home.”

I bet those CEOs that essentially signed away their salaries are puking in their office garbage cans today. They were never told they were slashing their pay. Now the successful bosses have to apply to the government to get their contractually obligated salaries back where they belong.

Yes, the top-level execs at the nation’s few successful banks will get their full wages, but guess who gets to determine the definition of success.  One hint: it isn’t the free market.

Uncle Sam forced his way into preferred shares of the nation’s banking system. Now the old man is forcing his way into the payroll department.

Not only should you be pissed about this, you should be downright scared.

Once the gates of hell are opened, they are impossible to close. These demons will haunt this country for a long, long time.

Source: Executive order #6: Opening the gates of hell

Too many investment myths have gone unchallenged lately. Today I plan to refute them – and explain why financial markets are likely to perform much better than most investors believe in the year ahead.

Let’s begin by examining the four biggest investment myths circulating right now…

Investment Myth #1: The Era of Free Markets is Over

It’s true that many of the apostles of free-market economics have begged Congress for government intervention during the current credit crisis. But nobody is seriously arguing that Uncle Sam should nationalize the economy, set wages and prices, or establish production quotas.

The free market still constitutes the best means of securing prosperity over the long term. (Just ask the Chinese. Three hundred million people there have been lifted out of poverty over the past three decades.) We will find ways to make free markets work better – not abolish them.

Investment Myth #2: The United States Has Lost its Competitive Edge

The reality is the United States continues to lead the world in innovation, technology, higher education, worker training and the ability of the labor force to move from one job to another.

Three months ago, the Swiss-based World Economic Forum released its global competitiveness report and, once again, the United States topped the list. The study further noted that our strong productivity will help us “ride out business-cycle shifts and economic shocks” better than most countries.

Investment Myth #3: The United States is No Longer an Attractive Market for Investment

Yes, the Fed’s move to take interest rates near zero has predictably knocked the dollar for a loop again. But that isn’t deterring foreign investors. Perhaps they know that the biggest bargain of all is inexpensive assets in a cheap currency.

According to the World Bank, the United States attracted more than $2 trillion worth of foreign direct investment last year. Britain, Hong Kong and France – the next three top finishers – each registered less than half as much. The United States remains the economic engine of the world – and smart capital will continue to seek a home here.

Investment Myth #4: U.S. Financial Markets Will Take Decades to Recover

In the more than 200-year history of equity investing in the United States, stocks have never taken decades to recover. Those who argue they have always omit dividends. Dr. Jeremy Siegel of the Wharton School points out that even if you invested a regular amount in the Dow every month beginning at the market peak in 1929, within four years you would still have outperformed someone who invested the same amount each month in T-bills. (The key is regular investment and reinvested stock dividends.)

The Nikkei 225 in Japan, of course, is still down more than 70% from its peak in 1989. Could the United States be headed for the same long, deflationary spiral? That’s extremely unlikely. The Japanese real estate and equity bubble was much bigger, government action there was clumsy and ineffective, and the banks were not cleaned up quickly or efficiently. Congress and the Federal Reserve are being much more proactive here.

It’s true that the economy is in for a few rough quarters. Understandably, the media is focused on the bad news. We all know that hundreds of thousands of jobs have been lost. Venerable names in banking and finance are no more. American automobile manufacturers are begging Congress for a lifeline. Residential real estate and the stock and corporate bond markets have all taken it on the chin.

But there are reasons for optimism, too. Oil has plunged from $147 a barrel to less than $40. Low interest rates will ultimately make it cheaper for businesses and consumers to borrow. A cheap greenback boosts exports and makes U.S. assets inexpensive to foreign buyers. And fundamental valuations on stocks are the cheapest they’ve been in 17 years.

Make no mistake, 2009 is going to be a tough year for the economy. But the financial markets – always looking forward – have already discounted this and could surprise you in the year ahead.

So don’t get waylaid by the gloom-and-doomers. There are always attractive investment opportunities out there and right now is no exception.

We’ll be highlighting dozens of new ideas – here and in our Oxford Club Communiqué – in the weeks just ahead.

Let’s buck the trend together – and look forward to a happy, healthy and prosperous New Year!

Source:The 4 Biggest Investment Myths of 2008

For half an hour or so after that, silver refused to follow suit and continued to rise, so it too had to be convinced that it should go down…and then it got creamed too. Give ‘da boyz’ a 9/10 on that pretty waterfall decline on the Kitco chart. This time, platinum and palladium followed suit. Once the bullion bank(s) got the avalanche started, sell stops got hit all the way down…and Bob’s your uncle!

It’s been a few weeks since the boys had to intervene this violently, but the 20-day moving average in gold was only a handful of dollars away…and silver’s 20-day m.a. had been broken once on Monday, and again yesterday morning just before the take-down. This is when some of the black box tech funds start getting interested in laying on some longs, but those moving averages are safely above the current gold and silver prices for the moment. Make no mistake, there was nothing free market about anything in the precious metals yesterday. As GATA’s secretary treasurer, Chris Powell, has said on many occasions…”There are no free markets anymore, only interventions.”

On Monday’s substantial price rise in silver, the open interest was only up a scant 469 contracts, and gold o.i. rose a substantial 6,929 contracts. The open interest numbers for Tuesday should be interesting when they’re released later this morning.

Yesterday was the cut-off for the COT report on Friday. Will all of Monday’s and Tuesday’s ‘action’ be in it? Knowing these crooks the way I do, I wouldn’t bet on it. It always seems like we have to wait until the following Friday before everything is reported…and by that time the market will have probably changed substantially and there will be no way of telling.

As per usual, I’ve got a couple of stories today, the first one being silver analyst Ted Butler’s latest commentary which is less than 24 hours old…completed shortly after the brutal take-down in both the gold and silver price yesterday. Needless to say, it’s my opinion that anything that he writes is more than worth reading. This commentary is entitled “A Critical Point?” and is linked here.

As if more proof were needed that the whole financial world is an overwhelming fraud, here’s a Bloomberg story about the credibility of the LIBOR (London Inter-Bank Offered Rate). “The LIBOR numbers that banks reported to the BBA were a lie,” said Tim Bond, head of global asset allocation at Barclays Capital in London. The story is linked here.

While markets have improved, they remain far from normal….we stand ready to increase the size of the (term) auctions if further warranted by financial developments. – Ben Bernanke, 13 May 2008 (Bloomberg)

Gee whiz…and I seem to remember Paulson at the Treasury Department, and the CEO of Citigroup saying on the weekend that the “worst of the credit crisis is over.” As Bill Murphy over at lemetropolecafe.com said today…”We are entering the Twilight Zone!” From Alice in Wonderland to the Twilight Zone…from the sublime to the ridiculous! It was ever thus.

I hope your Wednesday goes well, and I’ll see you here tomorrow.

Casey Research correspondent-at-large Ed Steer is a keen observer of the financial scene and a board member of GATA.org.

Source: And then there’s This…Wednesday, May 14th, 2008