Anyone who has ever flown on most any commercial airline is familiar with this scenario: Your plane is supposed to depart in the next few minutes. The big board says the flight is on time. The lady behind the counter is all smiles.

But you haven’t actually boarded or anything. In fact, as you squint out the window, you can see that there is no plane available to board, a fact that the oblivious clerk seems unable or unwilling to acknowledge.

Thirty minutes after your takeoff slot has come and gone, the ubiquitous screens that decorate the departure lounge’s walls suddenly blur, flicker and light up with the announcement that some flights may be delayed… by 10 minutes.

Airlines Crash and Burn

I’ve always wondered: Is this just wishful thinking? “Maybe pixies will make a plane appear!” Or more probably, “Maybe if we say nothing, no one will complain.”

When does arrogance and stupidity become plain and simple fraud?

This unwillingness to admit to the obvious appears to be endemic to the entire air biz. Note the recent behavior of aircraft manufacturer Boeing (BA: NYSE).

Let’s be frank – things really stink these days for the airlines. Bookings are way off, and fuel costs are rising again. As a group, shares are off some 59% over the past 12 months. I have a report on my desk noting that various U.S. and international airlines are looking to mothball some 2,302 planes this year.

Does Boeing care? Does it even deign to notice?

Naaah!

Delays? What Delays? Of Course We’ll Board on Time!

For months now, management has stood firm on previous forecasts for 2009 profits, despite Boeing’s commercial division receiving as many current “contract deferments” as there are fresh future sales. FedEx alone is talking about canceling between 15 and 30 planes. On the military side of the house, the Pentagon is canceling the LMT/BA F-22 Raptor program (at roughly $137.5 million per plane) and cutting off a good chunk of BA’s missile biz.

Faced with (as CEO Jim McNerney put it back in April) “economic times that are more difficult than many of us have ever seen,” BA dramatically hauled back on production, halving Q1 profits along the away. They have completely abandoned even the pretense of a prediction regarding 2010.

And yet they still insist the original projections for 2009 are intact. “Your flight is still on time – honest!” And you know what the most amazing part of it all is? Investors believed every word of it… for a while anyway.

Dreamliner Nightmare

In fact, it wasn’t until BA’s much ballyhooed 787 “Dreamliner” failed to fly in time for the annual Paris Air Show that folks began to wonder about the company’s veracity.

BA’s plane-of-the-future was already about two years behind schedule when top exec Scott Carson stood at the Paris podium on June 16 and promised – Scout’s honor – that the beast would see its maiden flight June 30. Over the course of that two-year delay, BA’s share price lost some 70%.

Now to be fair, that loss parallels the general demise of the American – and global – stock market. But word of the Dreamliner’s launch had managed to prop things up a bit, with BA shares recovering 82% between March and early June.

Failure to Launch

Problem is, Scott Carson’s performance in Paris was BA’s fifth such promise. And just one short week later, BA engineers have revealed that the plane’s ultra-light hybrid plastic/metal wing attachment points would require substantial modifications. They are calling this a minor problem to be expected in the development of a new plane.

I somehow think that keeping the wings on is a tad more than minor.

And now investors are (finally!) noticing that there are no planes loading – indeed, not even any planes at the gate. BA shares are off 20% since word of the 787 debacle began to break, including a 6% single day loss last Tuesday. And there is every technical indication that this downside trend is just getting started. I anticipate BA hitting the low $30s, if not high $20s shortly.

Source: Boeing’s Flight Delayed – or Canceled?

But, now I think oil has bottomed and will head higher. My fundamental and technical indicators are pointing to higher oil prices.

It’s disappointing that Americans seem to forget about our dependence on foreign oil as oil prices drop. In the 1970’s we got a wakeup call when people experienced gas shortages and rising fuel costs. Then it happened again, when oil spiked up to $147 a barrel last July. You heard lots of talk of switching to electric cars and cutting off our addiction to foreign oil. It’s disheartening that you don’t hear much about this anymore because now we have our cheap gas again.

We need to wake up and focus on finding alternatives to gasoline as the power source in our automobiles. It is time to get off this quickly depleting natural resource. Now that oil is cheap again we see people going right back to their old ways. Americans are starting to buy gas-guzzling SUVs again and the carpooling trend is tapering off. Oil demand will return and oil will go higher again.

We might as well profit on the next surge in oil prices. I think we are looking at a spring rally. The bottom in crude back in December was at $32.48 per barrel. This will likely serve as the low in this cycle. I circled crude oil’s highs and lows on the 5-year chart below to give you a perspective.

Here are just a few reasons why I think oil will run higher:

• There are many potential geopolitical flash points around the world that can flare up at any moment which could disrupt oil supply
• OPEC plans to meet Sunday in Vienna, and a few of the cartel’s leaders have said more production cuts are to be expected
• Crude oil prices held up in the face of new 12-year lows in the stock market last week; this is very bullish for oil
• Oil exploration companies increasingly drilling for oil in harder to reach places, and this adds to the cost of exploration and results in higher oil prices
• Most of the world’s cheap oil has already been discovered, and many experts think the world is running out of oil
• Soon we could see demand increase to a level that will start to exceed supply. Demand will grow in the years ahead as India and China continue to modernize.

While oil inventories are high right now, they may start to decline towards the end of the year. I suggest you start looking at investing in oil over the next few months and use big down days as buying opportunities.

If you invest in oil, keep an eye on the economy. If the current slowdown gets worse and last longer than expected, it could have negative effects on oil prices. Currently my indicators are pointing to higher oil prices in the near term.

The world’s utter dependence on oil remains unchanged. I believe the upside for oil prices is now much greater than the downside in the near term. I think the worst of the great oil bubble burst is behind us.

My esteemed colleagues wrote some great articles on oil recently. Dr. Russell McDougal wrote a great article on oil titled “Don’t Get Comfortable With Cheap Oil. And, Steve McDonald wrote an excellent piece titled “$75 Oil This Year and it Can Put a Lot of Money in Your Pocket”. I suggest you read their articles; they give some great ways to profit as oil prices rise.

Source: It’s Time to Invest in Oil Again!

Inflation is up significantly from the 1.7% increase reported in April, Statistics Canada reported yesterday (Thursday). And high gas prices are to blame as fuel costs rose 15.0% in May compared with the same month last year – that’s considerably faster than the 12-month change of 11.6% posted in April.

Excluding gasoline prices, 12-month inflation grew 1.6% in May.

Last week, the central bank voted to keep its overnight interest rate at 3%, warning that inflation risks have “shifted slightly to the upside.” But the bank quickly followed that up by saying global demand for Canadian goods and services remains strong despite a U.S. slowdown.

“This report will not push the bank to raise rates in 2008, but we do see 100 basis points of hikes coming in 2009 as Canada’s inflation problem heats up,” Meny Grauman, an economist with CIBC World Markets Inc. in Toronto, said in a note to clients, Bloomberg News reported.

With an end to the rate cuts, the Canadian dollar is on the rise. The loonie has gained 1% since the June 10 decision to hold rates steady, Bloomberg reported.

Recession Protection?

Earlier this month, Canada announced its gross domestic product (GDP) shrank 0.1% in the first quarter, marking the country’s first decline since the second quarter of 2003.

But this is where inflation could actually be a friend.

In today’s world, where interest rates are low and commodity prices are high, Canada’s in a very strong position for two reasons:

• It has oil reserves – somewhat larger than the Middle East – in the form of the Athabasca oil sands.

• And it’s the world’s largest producer of uranium, with 25% of the world market. (Australia is a close second, with about 23%.)

Since Canada is a chief oil exporter, its oil companies are on the receiving end of soaring prices. And in turn, that helps pad the economy’s pocket, becoming an unlikely protective barrier to another quarter of negative GDP growth.

Also working in the economy’s favor, month-to-month wholesale sales jumped 1.4% in April, more than doubling forecasts of 0.6%, Reuters reported. This suggests that domestic demand is able to wade through inflationary waters and lends credence to justifying a future interest rate hike.

The Bank of Canada’s next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is July 15.

Source: Can Inflation Save Canada from Recession?

“What’s different?” asked colleague Manraaj Singh at this morning’s conference.

Early every morning, while most Americans are still in their beds, your editor joins a group of analysts and financial journalists to discuss the day’s news.

“What happened to the price of copper? Why are Asian stocks going down? Are they really going to cut rates today?” The answers are not always satisfying, but the questions keep coming.

And the question this morning was: what has really changed?

U.S. stocks held steady yesterday, but they’re down 5% so far this year. The dollar held steady yesterday too, but it is down for the year too – about 6% against the euro and the yen. The Europe- or Japan-based stock market investor has lost more than 10% of his money.

Meanwhile, the fall of the dollar has increased prices for imports. While the United States used to “import deflation” from Asia and elsewhere, now it imports inflation. Prices are rising all over the world.

Yesterday, European producer prices were reported rising at 6.1% per year. High prices have caused the biggest drop in retail sales on record. And yesterday, they had to call out the riot squad in Brussels, to battle fishermen who were kvetching about high fuel costs.

In China, retail prices are rising at an 8.5% rate – the fastest in 12 years.

In Russia, prices are going up at a 14.39% rate.

In Vietnam, the consumer price inflation rate is running at 25%.

In Venezuela, the inflation rate is 29%.

And in Zimbabwe…well, Zimbabwe is another story altogether, with inflation going up so fast they can’t even measure it. Prices are said to be increasing at 160,000% to 200,000% per year. But who can tell? There’s nothing to buy.

Back in Asia…the region’s central banks had hoped that Milton Friedman was wrong. They had hoped that a worldwide economic slowdown would reduce domestic inflation rates. So, they left their lending rates low – considerably lower than the CPI – in order to keep their economies turning over. In Thailand, for example, the central bank lends at 3.25%, while consumer prices rise at more than 6%.

Sound familiar? The United States also keeps its key-lending rate well below the inflation rate – and for the same reason. The Fed lends at 2%. Inflation was last clocked running twice as fast.

We pause here in honest admiration for our fellow investors – the kind of admiration we feel for members of a bomb disposal unit, or a knife-thrower’s assistant. What are we to think? They are lending money to world’s biggest debtor – the U.S. government – for 10 years at 3.94%. That’s yesterday’s yield on the 10-year T-note. If nothing changes, they will get nothing for their trouble. If inflation rates rise (or just happen to be understated), or the dollar falls, the speculation will blow up in their faces.

But along comes Ben Bernanke, with an apparent change of brain. Now, says the captain of the Fed’s rapid response recession-fighting team, further inflation is unwelcome in the United States of America. Supposedly, these words alone took $5 off the global oil price.

But what really has changed? Can the U.S. central bank really begin fighting inflation in a serious way?

The feds have discovered the same two things that their Asian central banker colleagues have found out: that the globalization street goes both ways…and that Milton Friedman was right. Inflation is a monetary phenomenon, observed Friedman. When you increase the amount of money in circulation, ceteris paribus, prices are going to go up. That they didn’t go up much in the last 15 years is merely because there were important other trends going on – notably, globalization, which was driving down prices. But now, traffic on the Avenida de Globalization is going in the other direction. And just as it was very difficult to cause inflation while globalized markets were cutting prices, so is it very difficult to stop inflation when globalized markets are increasing them.

*** Can the Fed really begin fighting inflation? Ah, dear reader…do you see the cruel twist to the story?

While the Fed couldn’t seem to create inflation in those wonderful years of the Great Moderation…now, it probably can’t do much to stop it. The U.S. imports an Everest of stuff from overseas. And stuff made overseas is becoming more expensive. The Fed can raise rates to try to cool the U.S. economy and reduce the amount of stuff Americans buy. But those darned Asians and Europeans can still buy more, and prices can still go up.

Besides, any further ‘cooling’ of the U.S. economy is risky. It could freeze up.

The crisis is said to be over on Wall Street. But the Financial Times says new IPOs are being taken off the schedule…short action on Lehman Bros. is at a record level (speculators are betting that the company is going down) and Moody’s says it might downgrade credit ratings for MBIA and Ambac.

The money just isn’t flowing as fluidly in Manhattan as it used to. An AP story tells us that apartment sales were off 21% in the first quarter. And over on Long Island, where the Wall Streeters have their weekend homes, lenders are said to cutting off home equity lines.

In the center of the country, bankruptcy filings are up 27% in Illinois. And out in Las Vegas, the mortgage fraud capital of the world, a $5 billion casino project has just been cancelled.

And this just in – California is officially suffering a drought.

Under these conditions, we’d expect Ben Bernanke to make some gestures toward protecting the dollar and reducing inflation. But we’d also expect that most of the air coming from the Fed will be hot, not cold.

“The Fed seems to be trying to create a situation whereby they are seen to be fighting inflation, simply by not lowering rates any further,” says MoneyMorning. “This is because, while the Fed may have no interest in fighting inflation, they have a big interest in fighting what they call ‘inflationary expectations’. In other words, they are more interested in fighting people’s perception of the problem, rather than the problem itself.

The moment diesel fuel crested $3/gallon trucking simply could not compete. This trend will only accelerate now that diesel prices have passed the $4 mark.

It’s no shock that mega-investors like Buffett and Soros are reinventing themselves as modern-day rail barons. You should, too:

• Buy CSX (CSX: NYSE)
• Sell Con-Way Frt. (CNW: NYSE)

Adam Lass

Senior Editor, WaveStrength Options Weekly

***Black’s $15 Million “Magic Number” Could Hand Early Investors 135%

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Click here for enrollment information.

Source: Trucking Dies & Railroads Fly When Diesel Fuel Crests $3.00

The Indian government subsidizes most fuel costs, meaning state oil firms are forced to sell fuel at hugely discounted rates to shield consumers from inflation. But with the price of oil soaring to a recent high of $135 a barrel, refineries have been unable to cover costs and pressed to the point of bankruptcy.

The inability to pass high prices onto consumers cost state-run refiners about $43 billion for the year ended March 31, Serangulam V. Narasimhan, finance director at Indian Oil Corp. Ltd., said last month. The companies lost roughly $18 billion the year prior.

The Indian government had tried to cope with the matter by scrapping a 5% import tax on crude oil and cutting the import tax on gasoline and diesel to 2.5% from 7.5%, but the measures proved ineffective. So, yesterday (Wednesday), the government attempted to ease the burden on the refiners by boosting its subsidized fuel prices for the first time since February.

The price of gasoline will rise 11% in the Indian capital of New Delhi to $1.17 (50.6 rupees) per liter. Indian drivers will pay 9% more for diesel, and families will be charged an additional 17% per cylinder of cooking gas, India’s Oil Minister Murli Deora told reporters.

Still, as Deora also pointed out, even with the price hike, India’s state-owned oil companies are projected to lose a total of $58.4 billion this fiscal year, which runs from April through March 2009.

“The prices should have been raised higher for a real impact,” Ballabh Modani an analyst with Mumbai-based Enam Securities Pvt. told Bloomberg News. “There’s no point in an ad hoc increase.”

While the companies still stand to lose a significant amount of money, the Indian government must tread carefully when raising prices, as wholesale prices are already at a three-and-a-half-year peak of 8.1%.

The hike in fuel prices was India’s biggest in 12 years, and is expected to add another between 0.5% and 0.6% to wholesale prices. If the government had pushed prices any higher, it would have been risking social unrest among the nation’s poor who are already coping with high food prices.

“Already milk, vegetables, wheat – the price of everything has gone up so much,” Balaram, an office driver earning a little over $100 a month, told Reuters. “And now gas and petrol. With my salary, after paying my rent and my expenses, what will I send home? How will I feed my family and what will I save?”

Together, food and fuel account for about 75% of household spending for poor families in Asia. And India, despite its growing reputation for economic success, currently has the largest number of people living in abject poverty: more than 350 million, or about a third of the population.

Source: India Fuels Inflation by Bailing Out Refineries

Of course, once explained the answers are obvious. The planes we see flying above us, whether military or commercial, are pretty old and inefficient. New fuel-efficient and eco-friendly ones are badly needed. And that is why we’ve noted this in our diary, because new planes use a lot of titanium… and this commodity is becoming increasingly more valuable.

US giant Boeing is pretty optimistic in its current market outlook. It sees new planes making up 80 percent of the 36,400 airplanes that will be in service in 2026.

Both Boeing and Europe’s giant, Airbus, see huge demand for planes coming from Asia-Pacific. The market is described as dividing up on the lines of 31% Asia-Pacific, 27% North America and 24% Europe. Then by 2026 the emerging countries of Argentina, Brazil, South Africa, with around 3bn people, will also want more planes.

Titanium is magic for aircraft manufacturers. It is corrosion resistant and has the highest strength to weight ratio of any metal. It is as strong as steel but 45% lighter. It occurs in the earth with a number of mineral deposits, principally rutile and ilmenite.

It was discovered in Cornwall in 1791 by amateur geologist and pastor William Gregor, then vicar of Creed parish. Uses have been found for it at a slowly increasing rate. Now it is more fully appreciated, supply is forecast to stay steady (or fall) but demand is expected to rise sharply.

As usual China’s position is key

The titanium minerals market was in deficit last year. As usual with metals and minerals, China’s position is key. It is no longer an exporter. Plus energy shortages in South Africa, producer of 27% of the market, are cutting supplies from there.

While the US has been using less, China has been using more. And whilst titanium’s toughness makes it such a popular alloy for metals, it also goes into paints, coatings and plastics – where its anti-corrosive properties are a winner.

Asia is the fastest growing market with projections of future growth rates of 6-7% a year. China, which has a demand of 650,000 tonnes per year, is seeing growth rates of 10% a year and above – according to producers. The largest amount of titanium consumption is in paints and coatings, followed by plastics. Analysts forecast that China will represent 17% of global consumption by 2010-2011.

India is the next power house with growth rates of 8-10% per year while demand in southeast Asia is growing at a healthy 4-6% per year. Vietnam also has strong growth but from a small base.

Prices of Chinese imports of ilmenite, the main feedstock for titanium, have risen by around 50% so far this year. With global demand for titanium minerals expected to rise by 3.6% this year on average, more price rises seem on the cards. Apparently, a lift of 1% in Chinese GDP results in a 2.2% lift in titanium consumption.

A little Irish one to watch

A little producer that we’ve been watching, although it is still very early days, is actually an Irish company, quoted in Dublin and on AIM. This is Kenmare Resources. Last year it produced 86,000 tonnes of ilmenite, but this is forecast by broker Canaccord to leap to 541,000 tonnes this year and 747,000 next.

So that means, says Canaccord, that it should soon be making reasonable profits — from losses of nearly US$10m last year – to break even this year, and then on to profits of US$19m in 2009, with US$79m in 2010.

By Erin Hamilton and Isabel Turner

Source: Titanium Is Flying High

“Tough talk and empty promises from Congress one day, and supply information from the Saudis another, can get a day’s relief here or there from the continued escalation of prices,” wrote Neal Ryan, of Ryan Oil & Gas Partners.

“But ultimately, prices are going to be a reflection of the supply/demand data at hand,” Ryan said.
And people are not happy about it. “The expressions of protest demonstrate how difficult social dislocation, resulting from higher fuel costs, will be,” wrote Michael Fitzpatrick of MF Global. “For the moment, though, we still feel prices look vulnerable to $120.”

Fitzpatrick argued that, on the other hand, “it has taken five years to get here; conditions will not and did not change overnight.”

Traders are looking toward the Energy Information Administration’s weekly inventory report, delayed until today by the Memorial Day holiday.

The consensus is for crude stocks to have climbed by 750,000 barrels for the week ended May 23. But as always, surprises to the up or downside could shake the market.

Source: Crude Back on the Upswing

I managed to pack in four barbecues (or “cookouts” to put it in American lingo) over the weekend – all pretty close to home – so not too much damage done. And with soaring gasoline and food prices contributing to a projected 3.6% rise in consumer prices this year, it might be the best way to go.

Gas prices obviously remain front-and-center of the news, so let’s check in and see how it’s affecting consumers on both sides of the Atlantic, plus an industry that is arguably getting hammered even harder.

National Average Gas Price

Following a daily march higher over the past three weeks, the current national average gas price per gallon sits at an ugly $3.93. But with gas in 11 US states already over $4 a gallon, this number is now more for headlines than anything else. Bottom line: It’s expensive!

Little wonder that AAA projected a drop in Memorial Day travelers this year – the first decline since 2002. Many have also scaled back their plans, due to rising gas prices. And MasterCard reported a 7% drop in gas sales in the week leading up to the holiday.

But it wasn’t just Americans feeling the pressure at the pump this weekend…

Truck JamLike in the US, Monday was also a holiday in Britain, with the long weekend giving Brits a similar chance to hit the road for a short break.

Trouble is, UK gas prices are 17% higher than this time last year, with diesel prices almost 30% higher. The national average is currently $1.14 a liter and $1.26 a liter respectively. In US terms, that’s about $10.16 and $11.23 per gallon.

You can see why 16% of respondents to an Automobile Association survey said they plan to use their cars less.

What bothers many Brits, though, is that about 60% of fuel costs go into the government’s coffers in taxes. And today, the nation’s truckers took their protest to the streets.

In a mass demonstration against high prices and the government’s planned 2 pence per liter fuel tax rise (set to come into effect in October, having been postponed from April), hundreds of truckers set off from various parts around the UK and conducted a “go-slow” along the motorways.

One convoy ended at London, where the truckers handed a petition to the government at Downing Street. The other convoy, starting from further afield, handed its petition to the Welsh Assembly in Cardiff because (ironically), the trip to London would have cost too much.

The underlying problem that the trucking industry faces today is certainly not exclusive to Britain, though. High fuel prices are hammering both British and American truckers. So could America see a similar backlash?

America’s Big Rigs Have Big ProblemsActually, it already has. You may remember some truckers driving their rigs to the Capitol in Washington, D.C. in early April to protest against high fuel prices and imploring Congress to provide some relief measures.

You can see why. While diesel prices are up 30% in Britain over the past year, the price has blasted 80% higher in the US – from $2.50 a gallon this time last year to $4.50 today, according to the New York Times.

When it costs $1,125 to fill up a 250-gallon fuel tank, that clearly crushes any kind of profit margin that trucking companies hope to generate.

In fact, the American Trucking Association says times are so tough today that during the first quarter, 935 companies with fleets of five trucks or more went out of business. That’s up an astonishing 143% from the 385 in Q1 2007 – and is the worst quarterly “bust rate” since 2001.

In total, 45,000 trucking vehicles have permanently pulled off America’s highways since early 2007, according to America’s Commercial Transportation Research.

The domino effect of this is far-reaching. Reduced profits can erode employee wages, decrease supplies of goods, and create more potential for failing companies. In turn, that can cause bankruptcy and dents GDP growth.

So is there a way to play these developments?

Hit The Road (The Railroad, That Is)In a desperate attempt to offset some of the costs, some trucking firms are turning to rail companies.

While trucks can only haul so much and are directly impacted by rising gasoline costs, rail companies can absorb soaring oil prices more easily, as they can haul more goods. A few of the biggest names in this area include:

Burlington Northern Sante Fe (NYSE: BNI) – a firm that Warren Buffett has invested heavily in… Union Pacific Corp (NYSE: UNP)… and CSX Corp (NYSE: CSX).

All three are also members of the Dow Jones Transportation Average (^DJT), which is a remarkable story itself…

Transports Bust The TrendRemarkably, despite the march in oil prices to over $130 a barrel, that hasn’t stopped the Dow Transports from surging, too.

This is a major reversal in the historical trend. Oil prices and the Dow Transports usually move in opposite directions – and you’d think that with fuel being the biggest expense for Transportation Index companies and high oil prices pressuring so many areas of the transportation sector, the index that represents these firms would also be under severe pressure.

Not so. The DJT is actually up 15% in 2008, and as my colleague Jim Stanton reported in his bi-weekly “Sector Watch” column last Monday (May 19), the index raced to an all-time high of 5,550.17 on the same day. Jim applied some technical analysis to the index – and how to play the next move profitably through the index’s ETF – so take a look.

With the index made up of airlines like American (NYSE: AMR), Continental (NYSE: CAL), JetBlue (Nasdaq: JBLU) and Southwest (NYSE: LUV), plus shipping companies FedEx (NYSE: FDX) and UPS (NYSE: UPS) – all of which are buckling under the weight of high oil and gas prices – economists are now hotly debating whether it’s throwing the market a curveball.

Traditionally seen as a sign of US economic strength and turnarounds, the fact that the index is soaring while consumers and the economy are struggling is a source of confusion.

The fact is that ever-rising energy costs will alter American driving and dietary habits with no government intervention at all. $7 gasoline (or $12, now that Robert Hirsch of Hirsch Report fame has repeated Charlie Maxwell’s $12 forecast on CNBC) will make the 40-mile one-way commute unsustainable. And to some degree, we already see this reflected on a nationwide map of foreclosures, county-by-county, as put out by RealtyTrac.

In the places where foreclosures are highest, writes Wall Street Journal columnist Holman Jenkins (yes, I know I excoriated him a few weeks ago, but this most recent column isn’t half-bad)…

…Many of these homebuyers are underwater not just
because they bought more house than their incomes could support, and
not just because prices are falling. They were also betting on commute
patterns and demographic expectations that are proving invalid.

These were bets on location, location, location –
premised on the idea that people would be willing to live hours from
anywhere for a chance to own a single-family home they could actually
afford. No federally sponsored haircut can put these housing bets back
in the money, or stop these houses from coming back on the market at
distress prices.

And the reason for that, although Jenkins doesn’t say so, is that rising fuel costs are making the exurban lifestyle increasingly unsustainable.

So let’s examine the map as Jenkins did. The worst of the bleeding is in an arc reaching from Sacramento to Vegas to Phoenix, plus a goodly chunk of South and Southwest Florida, plus the tier of counties just east of I-25 in Colorado.

Now Florida’s a peculiar case; so much of the malinvestment there went into second/vacation homes. But that big Western arc sure looks like an unconscious bet that car culture would last forever. And it’s especially true of those Colorado counties — cheap land on the plains east of the Front Range, where housing was more affordable than in Denver or Aurora or even Fort Collins. It was a wonderful thing — as long as gas stayed under $2.50 a gallon.

Looking at the lighter shade of bleeding reveals more problem exurban areas — like the region 40-50 miles southwest of Chicago, including Kendall County, home to 77% population growth between 2000 and 2007, highest in the nation. Much of the state of Ohio is in the pink as well, including the I-71 corridor where new arrivals made long-distance commutes to Cincinnati and Columbus de rigeur during this decade. The parts of Florida that aren’t in the red are mostly in the pink, including the I-4 corridor that would likewise be unsustainable without cheap gas. (Can’t afford Tampa or Orlando? Move to Lakeland or Winter Haven and commute. Seemed like a good idea at the time…)

I don’t necessarily buy into all of James Howard Kunstler’s near-apocalyptic predictions about what’s in store during the Peak Oil era. But the map tells one part of the story that’s undoubtedly true: there’s a whole lot of fairly new housing stock out there, 40 or 50 miles from major cities, that’s being steadily abandoned… and may never be occupied again.

Source: An Ominous Map