The World Bank downgrades its world economic forecast, A few lessons from the school of German-style hyperinflation, Will we be seeing you in Vancouver this year? And plenty more…

Overnight markets ambush risk assets…  Germany’s IFO Business Confidence gains again…  A$’s get pounded by opposite thought story…  More supply to auction off for the U.S…. 

The problem is that the federal debt is rising – and will continue to rise – much faster than gross domestic product, which represents America’s ability to service it.

In February 1995, the U.S. economy was in great shape. The 1990-92 recession had been over for a couple of years, the Federal Reserve was beginning to ease interest rates, the Clinton administration was beginning to make progress on sorting out the United States’ modest long-term budget problem and there was this new thing called the Internet that looked as though it might bring some exciting new possibilities.

One of the problems with orthodox economics is it misses the point on human behavior. Orthodox economists build their models around the assumption of rational behavior of large groups of people. There is therefore always a gulf between this type of economic theory and the real world.

Foreclosures rise…  Green Shoots, no so green!  Getting on a bus…  Losing a triple A rating? And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

The BLS adds jobs…  Growing Deficits again… Jim Rogers….  A Trade Surplus for Canada… And Now… Today’s Pfennig!

When Ronald Reagan moved into the White House, total U.S. debt equaled 168% of GDP. The next 27 years took the total to 370%; it was heralded as a triumph of the Anglo-Saxon free enterprise system, but it left people with an additional $27 trillion of debt. And now, the economic system that created so many heavy balls and such long chains is in the recovery room – looked after by quacks and prayed for by most of the world.

It’s time to roll up our sleeves, put on our waders and plunge into the inflation-deflation question once again. It’s going to get messy. But it’s probably the most important question to answer for investors right now. That’s because the price direction of almost every asset on the planet depends on these monetary forces.

Despite the worry of a flu pandemic, a unexpectedly large contraction in US GDP and a recent prediction by the IMF that US banks’ loan losses would top $2.7 trillion, the world, as Justice Litle puts it in Taipan Daily, “is pounding the table for a V-shaped recovery.”