You see, this past Tuesday, his Investment U article caught my attention. In case you missed it, it was written about green energy. In it, Louis makes an argument for a “green energy super-bubble” that could burst in as little as two or three years, leaving unwary alternative energy investors in the lurch.

In his article, he cites four conditions that exist that make alternative energy ripe for a bubble. Those conditions may indeed be forming, but in and of themselves won’t cause a “speculative bubble.” In this case, there’s definitely more to the story.

The Defense of Alternative Energy & Green Investing

Louis: “The legislation is in place, and more is on the way.”

You’ll get no argument from me that Bush’s foray into increased ethanol production was misguided at best. But unlike ethanol, solar, wind and geothermal tax credits have been the catalysts that have energized those respective industries.

Improvements in technology have resulted in generation costs on par with – and in some cases, below – conventional fossil fuel sources. And with regard to solar in particular, costs per watt are on track to drop another 50% in the next few years. And in spite of the lower costs, industry margins will be in the 35% to 50% range, three times what they are today. That’s a recipe for increased earnings if I ever saw one.

Louis: “Money is already pouring into the sector.”

The $200 billion that Louis said flowed into the sector in the last two years is about right for a capital-intensive business like alternative energy. If it weren’t flowing into alternative energy development and deployment, where else in the energy sector would it go?

To pay for higher oil, for one, but perhaps it’s easier to describe where it won’t be going:

• No one wants a fossil fuel plant in their backyard (few are even planned, let alone being built), and you can forget about any new nuclear power plants here in the United States.
• Only a few are even in the permit stage (a 10-year process in and of itself), construction can take 10 to 15 years, and cost $15 to $20 billion. In June 2008, Moody’s estimated that the cost of power produced by a nuclear plant might possibly exceed $7 per watt, 10 times that of solar’s $0.70 per watt. And then there’s the spent fuel issue, decommissioning, etc.

Plenty of Room to Up Spending on Alternative Energy

Given that the United States alone spends over $500 billion every year on foreign oil, there’s plenty of room to up the spending on alternative energies like wind power.

Besides, we don’t really have a choice; cheap energy’s the key ingredient for economic growth. The problem with coal, oil and natural gas is that they are all finite resources, and we’ve already used all the best deposits (those with the highest energy content). Combine that with oil prices that will likely be closer to $100 a barrel by the end of the year, reigniting interest in alternatives.

Louis: “Tough credit conditions actually encourage more speculation.”

I’d argue that it’s really investment we’re talking about, not speculation. Because of the tax credits mentioned earlier, many start-ups already exist – particularly in the solar sector – where no less than 143 companies are currently playing in the thin-film segment of the industry.

There’s no question that they won’t all survive. But those that do will have viable, long-term business supplying the world with much-needed alternatives to fossil fuels.

Louis: “Green is the new black.”

Here I whole-heartedly agree, but for a different reason…

A Paradigm Shift Is Underway In Alternative Energy

There’s a paradigm shift underway in the alternative energy sector. Fossil fuels are on their way out and green is on the way in. It’s going to be a 20- to -30-year process, and that’s why it’s destined to be such a great opportunity for investors.

It’s not just a “U.S. social responsibility” thing, either. In fact, it’s just the opposite. Our alternative energy roadmap is far behind those of many other nations. Take Portugal, for instance, where over 60% of their energy comes from renewable sources. Their goal? 100%. China and Germany also have aggressive alternative energy generation plans underway.

And because of all the government tax incentives dangled in front of the myriad companies, cost-effective solar panels and wind generators are already in use, generating power that produces no greenhouse gas, and more importantly, don’t use a drop of oil when running.

Here’s the bottom-line: The global need for cheap energy is so monumental, alternative energy is destined to remain a target-rich environment for many years to come. Will some companies be better investments than others? Of course… just like they are in any other sector.

But a bursting bubble in two to three years? I don’t believe it. Actually, a mini one burst last year when oil dropped from $147 a barrel to where it is today, driving many solar, wind and geothermal stocks down as much as 80%. The valuations that these companies are sporting now are, in many cases, as low as they’ve ever been.

And that has helped to set up what could be one of the best sectors to invest in moving forward… for decades to come.

One thing you can be sure of: Both Louis and I will be watching it all unfold with an eye (or two, in this case) towards providing you with some great ideas for investing… and maybe for a few bragging rights.

Source: Alternative Energy: Why You Can’t Ignore “Green” Investing

I am not sure this country should follow the advice of a man that has lost over $2 billion so far this year. But then again, some of the nation’s most powerful men have lost far more than that in just the past few weeks.

If you spend any time watching your living room television set, you have seen T. Boone Pickens discussing his proposed energy plan. The 80-year old has spent over $58 million of his own money to tell the nation it must lose its dependence on foreign oil.

What the white-haired oil barren does not tell you is that his money is not where his mouth his. While Pickens was telling you and I to fund his $100-billion idea, the fund he manages, BP Capital, was invested heavily in crude. And thanks to Pickens’ investing decisions, the fund has dropped in value by over 60% so far this year.

It is no wonder the investing firm’s phones are ringing off their hooks with folks looking to pull their money out of the fund. About half of BP Capital’s investors want out of their positions. Their capital withdraw has taken the fund’s size down to just $400 million.

It is a strong blow to the oil maverick’s ego.

Pickens promises to make the $2 billion back, but it is going to be much, much harder now that he has less funding to work with.

Should have known better

Investing in the energy business is a hard racket. After all, it is one of the most cyclical industries out there. But with decades of experience and several boom-to-bust cycles under his belt, one would expect Pickens to be able to avoid his current situation.

With so much negativity surrounding the investor and his picks, it will be hard for folks to get onboard with his newly proposed plans. As oil prices drop with the slowing economy, expensive prospects like wind, geothermal, and solar power are going to look far less attractive than they did when Pickens started his campaign.

While Pickens is pushing his alternative-energy agenda on the mainstream networks, his philanthropy is much more indicative of the investor’s true thoughts.

Instead of adding more money to his energy investments, Pickens is donating it to his beloved Oklahoma State and its football team. He just wrote a $65 million check earmarked to help finish the school’s football stadium.

Plus, Pickens said he would be returning the $125 million he managed in a hedge fund for the school. When he started the investment, it was worth $165 million.

Oh well, it is the thought that counts.

Source: T. Boone Pickens shows his cards

I live in Pittsburgh, and grew up here as well. Both figuratively and literally, Pittsburgh is built on coal. Coal is the remains of ancient plant life, buried within the rock record.

For example, one of the most extensive and valuable mineral resources in the U.S. is called the Pittsburgh Coal Seam. The Pittsburgh Coal Seam shows up in outcrops all over town, if you know where to look and what you are seeing. But there is a lot more to this hunk of rock.

The Pittsburgh Seam extends underground all over western Pennsylvania. The Pittsburgh Seam is high-grade coal and can be as much as 6-8 feet thick. That’s a lot of energy stored up in one place.

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A century or more ago, coal from the Pittsburgh Seam was abundant and cheap. People heated their houses with coal, cooked with coal, powered simple engines with coal. And all over western Pennsylvania, people like Henry Frick and Andrew Carnegie pulled a heck of a lot of money out of that Pittsburgh Seam.

They built mines, powered mills and created immense industries based on burning coal. More fundamentally — if not philosophically — they profited from harnessing and releasing the stored-up energy from ancient sunshine.

Energy and Capital

Let’s think about that for a moment. It was not that capital was cheap back in the last century. Gold was gold. Money was money. When they borrowed funds, Frick and Carnegie paid the same interest rates as anyone else anywhere else. But they succeeded, and did so in great fashion. What was their advantage?

Well, it gets back to that Pittsburgh Coal Seam. In the last century, western Pennsylvania had rich seams of coal located near the surface. Pittsburgh had proximity to some of the best energy reserves in North America. So coal became the foundation of industry. Energy powered industry, and industry created wealth.

The rivers of western Pennsylvania made it easy to transport that coal. That is, using barges to float things down the rivers required relatively less energy per ton-mile to move the coal to Pittsburgh’s mills. And using the rivers meant that it required less energy per ton-mile to move the value-added products out to the interior of the country, and to the world. (For example, the steel locks on the Panama Canal were built at Pittsburgh and floated down the Ohio and Mississippi rivers, across the Gulf of Mexico and to Panama.) Yes, it took capital to gain access to the energy sources. But the energy sources also leveraged the capital.

In its own way, energy is a form of capital, isn’t it? And it is a major competitive advantage to control a source of low-cost energy.

In fact, control over reliable sources of low-cost energy may be even better than access to cheap capital, especially in years to come. There are so many dollars in this world that almost any darn fool can borrow them, or how else to explain what has been happening on Wall Street lately? But ample and low-cost energy can certainly multiply the effectiveness of capital. Ask Frick or Carnegie.

The Price and Consequences of Using Coal

Have you seen the price of coal lately? In 2008, thermal coal prices are set to double, from about $55 to $125 per ton. That’s based on a recent agreement between Japan’s Chubu Electric Power and the giant mining firm Xstrata, and it should become the benchmark for 2000-09 contract prices worldwide.

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Spot prices for thermal coal have tripled in the past 12 months. And spot prices for coking coal (used to make steel) have quadrupled in the last 12 months. Just in the last two months, those prices have doubled. Do you notice any patterns?

Let’s boil it down to a few key points. The cost of the world’s “traditional” energy source — coal — is skyrocketing. And about 40 percent of the world’s electricity is currently generated using coal. Many other industries use even more coal, from steel makers to cement kilns.

So if coal prices are going up, what will that mean for electricity prices, or steel, or cement or whatever? They are headed up, as well. I would say grab your oxygen mask. But that’s a bad joke, because of the carbon dioxide (CO2 ) issues that people blame on coal.

The Time for Geothermal Arrived

So where can we in North America get significant amounts of “clean” electricity with minimal CO2 emissions? Not from coal. How about windmills? Yes, when the wind blows. How about solar? Yes, when the sun shines. And how about geothermal? Yes, all the time. 24/7/365.

Really, the stars of economics and politics are aligning on this one. The time for geothermal has arrived. Welcome aboard.

Until we meet again…
Byron W. King

P.S.: As long as we’re talking about energy, did you happen to see oil prices yesterday? Somehow oil almost touched $120 and things are still looking grim. As OPEC continues to squabble and Peak Oil reaches the front pages, could $150 or even $200 oil be that far off? Click here to decide for yourself…