In my column last week, I showed you some of the spectacular moves that the four most actively traded commodities (oil, natural gas, gold and silver) have made over the past couple of years.

And when you see the wide trading ranges, it also gives you an idea of just how lucrative they can be.

But you don’t need to be an expert to take advantage. You just need to know how to play them intelligently, using strategies that minimize your risk and maximize your profit potential.

Easier said than done, right? Nope. That’s what I’m here for. And today, I’m going to show you how to add commodities to your portfolio in a much easier way than through futures or futures options, and a much better way than by just buying commodity stocks outright.

Two Reasons Why You Should Use A Put Option Strategy

Perhaps the best way to play commodities is through the options market.

But if you think “commodities and options” in the same sentence sounds scary, think again! Let me explain to you how you can do so, using one of my favorite strategies when you want to take a bullish stance.

It’s called “put-option selling.”

Let’s run through the basics first…

In the options market, a buyer of put options has a bearish stance on the underlying asset (be it the overall market, or stock). Alternatively, a seller of put options is adopting a neutral or bullish stance on the underlying asset.

And the flexibility of the options market allows you to sell options as an opening transaction instead of having to buy them.

In this case, we’re the put-option sellers – a technique that has a superb double benefit.

• You receive income upfront – yours to keep, no matter what happens with the rest of the trade.
• You have a chance to buy the underlying asset at the price you want – and at a large discount to the current price.

Here’s how it works…

Create Your Own “Discount Store”

Whenever you sell an option contract (either a call or put option), the option buyer pays you for it. This money is yours to keep and it gets immediately placed into your trading account.

When you sell a put option contract in particular, not only do you get the immediate cash payment, but you are also giving yourself the chance to buy the underlying asset at the (strike) price you select.

In short, someone is paying you cash so that you can buy the asset at the price you want. How great is that?

Let’s run through a hypothetical example – using the commodities market – to show how put-option selling is as simple as it seems…

Say you’re bullish on a gold stock, but the price has run up too much for your liking. You want to wait for a pullback to the 200-day moving average area before you buy.

Now that commodities exchange traded funds are an extremely popular and easy way to trade commodities, you decide that you’re going to use the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD). Here’s how…

How to Buy Gold At the Price You Want

GLD tracks the price movement of physical gold and is roughly one-tenth the size of the front-month gold futures contract.

And because it’s an ETF, it trades just like a stock, so you can buy and sell it through a regular stock brokerage account.

However, with it currently trading around $97, you want to wait for a pullback to the $91 area before buying, as that’s the price at which you feel comfortable owning the shares.

So what’s the best way to take advantage? Regular investors may put in a stock buy order at $91 and hope GLD comes down to that level. But if it doesn’t, you’ve wasted your time.

Here’s where the put-selling strategy comes into play.

• Instead of placing a buy order, you could opt to sell a GLD December 2009 $91 strike put option contract (GLD-XM) for $1.40 per contract.
• What does this do for us? Well, for every put option contract you sell, the option buyer will immediately pay you $140 (because there are 100 shares in each options contract – $1.40 multiplied by 100 = $140).
• If you sell 10 of these put option contracts, you’ll receive $1,400 into your trading account.

That’s right… instant cash just for placing a trade. So what’s the catch? Only that you’re obligating yourself to buy those GLD shares at $91 – which is the price you want!

However, you must ensure that you only sell as many contracts as corresponds to the number of shares you want to buy. For example, if you sell just one contract, you’re obligated to buy 100 shares of GLD for $91 by options expiration. And if you sell 10 contracts, you’d be on the hook for 1,000 shares at that $91 price.

Get Proactive Through Put Option Selling & Get Cash

So instead of just sitting and waiting to see if GLD gets back down to $91 before you buy it, at least when you sell put option contracts, you pocket $1,400 in cash (on 10 contracts) while you wait.

It’s a win-win situation: not only do you get paid money while you wait, you still gain the opportunity to buy GLD shares at the price you want ($91) if it trades back down there by options expiration.

Speaking of options expiration, let’s cover that scenario…

Your Two Scenarios At Options Expiration

Only two scenarios will occur when the December options expiration rolls around…

• If GLD is still trading above your strike price of $91, then the put options will expire worthless and you just keep the $1400 free and clear. The trade is now over.
• If GLD is trading below your strike price of $91, then you’ll be “assigned” the shares on your put options and will become a regular shareholder of GLD at $91 per share. At this point, you’ll have to pay cash in full for the shares. But remember, you get to buy GLD at your chosen price.

A few points to remember:

• You’re selling the put option contract as the opening transaction, not buying it.
• You can buy the option back any time you wish. You don’t need to wait for option expiration to take action.
• You must be approved to trade option contracts through your stockbroker. The broker will also require you to keep a portion of the money it would cost for the shares in your account during the trade (a “margin requirement”) – but not the full amount.
• If you’re assigned the shares, you simply take the same risk management actions you would for any other bullish stock position you own.

The Bottom Line on Selling Puts

If you’re bullish on a stock, but find the price is too high, why just hang around and wait for it to decline? You can earn some cash while you wait through the put-selling strategy.

If the stock ends up below your strike price (the price you want to buy the shares) at option expiration, then you succeeded in your quest. You’ll be able to buy the shares at your comfort level, while still retaining the cash paid to you on day one of the transaction. A no-brainer in my book.

Good investing,

Lee Lowell

Source: How to Buy Gold… At the Price You Want & Get Paid for It

According to the U.S. Census Bureau, there are 6.783 billion earthlings. Meanwhile, CPM Group, a highly respected industry organization, estimates there are 4.8 billion ounces of above-ground gold in the world. And this includes jewelry, electronics, and dental. So, even if everyone around the world volunteered to have their chain, cross, or tooth melted into a coin, we’re already short. Those towards the end of the line are out of luck.

However, it’s worse than that. Of all the physical metal ever mined…

• 2.1 billion ounces, or 43%, is found in jewelry, decorative, and religious items.
• Private stock – gold already held by various private parties – accounts for 1.1 billion ounces.
• Official reserves (central banks, IMF, etc.) stand at 1 billion ounces.
• Industrial use accounts for 530 million ounces.

Very little of this is likely to come available for purchase in coin form. After all, you’re not selling any of your gold, and neither are many banks or institutions. Most everyone is buying.

So for those who don’t yet have a gold coin (or you greedy investors who want more than one), this pretty much leaves us with mine production and scrap sources.

CPM forecasts that total new supply in 2009 will be around 122 million ounces. Only a small percentage of this is made into gold coins and bars, but if all of it were, it would amount to less than two one-hundredths of an ounce, or about half a gram, for every man, woman, and child on earth this year. A product of this dimension is about half the size of that small button on your shirt collar.

Since this supply is only available annually, it means 0.018% of the global population – one in every 55 people – could buy a one-ounce gold coin this year. Or, said differently, it would take 55 years before everybody had one, assuming the population never increased (it is) and supply never decreased (it is).

But it’s worse than that. Actual 2009 coin production will be around 5 million ounces (excluding medallions or “rounds”), leaving two one-hundredths of a gram of gold (or 0.3 of a grain) available this year for each of the planet’s inhabitants. This is about half the size of the sesame seed that fell off your hamburger bun at dinner last night. It means that only 0.0007% of earth’s citizens – or one in 1,356 – can buy a one-ounce gold coin this year, and it would take 1,356 years for everyone to get one.

How’s that for a supply squeeze?

But it’s worse than that. Demand continues rising. Gold is more frequently in the news, attracting more customers every day. Hedge funds, which never before considered gold, are now buying physical metal (Greenlight Capital actually sold $500 million of GLD and bought physical gold). Central banks are net buyers of gold for the first time in 22 years. China is running TV ads encouraging its citizens to buy gold and silver. Last month Russia bought more gold than they actually produced. In a recent survey, 20 out of 22 fund managers bought physical gold for their personal investments. In other words, some investors are already scrambling to get it… and in big quantities.

But it’s worse than that. Most of the ramifications of the money printing and dollar debasement haven’t even surfaced yet. How will the general public react when the dollar is crashing and standards of living are threatened? What will they do when milk and gas prices surge to twice what they are now? How will the greater collective respond when they lose faith in government interventions? Where will they invest when they see gold and silver prices screaming upward and don’t want to be left behind?

The panic into gold by the general public hasn’t begun yet. Available supply is scarce and will get smaller. There won’t be enough.

Better get your speck while you can.

Regards,
Jeff Clark

Source: What if Everyone in the World Wanted a One-Ounce Gold Coin?

It’s true; gold has become noticeably less unpopular during the last few months. It is still not as popular an investment as, say, AIG or the shares of almost any other incompetent financial institution. But some investors have actually begun to admit that they’ve purchased some gold.

A couple of the most conspicuous gold-buyers – the Chinese government and hedge fund manager, John Paulson – represent quintessential examples of the “new” gold buyer. This new type of buyer does not also buy ammunition, bottled water and Lynyrd Skynyrd tank tops. Nor does this new gold buyer spend Saturday nights sipping Gallo Hearty Burgundy in his La-Z-Boy, while flipping through binders full of Walking Liberty gold coins.

These new gold buyers do not LOVE gold nearly as much as they FEAR paper. But they are buying aggressively nonetheless…and leaving their tracks everywhere.

Earlier this year, for example, Paulson & Co., the hedge-fund firm run by billionaire John Paulson, became the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an ETF that buys gold bullion. The New York-based firm owned 8.7 percent of the fund, as of March 31. Paulson has also taken very large stakes in several gold mining companies – in particular Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE:GFI), Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE:KGC) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU)

Paulson has lots of company among mom and pop investors who are allocating some of their capital to gold. As the nearby chart illustrates quite clearly, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF has been accumulating ever-rising quantities of gold bullion – all in response to investor demand.

Although this chart is a bit dated, the trend it illustrates remains firmly entrenched. As of September 21, this ETF controlled 1,563 tonnes of gold, making it the world’s fifth individual holder of gold. The Swiss central bank, by comparison, holds only a little more than 1,000 tonnes of gold.

Meanwhile, the Chinese doubled their official gold holdings last year, and have been making a lot of headlines with some very public gripes about the dollar. A couple weeks ago, Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, complained, “If [the Fed] keeps printing money to buy bonds, it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two, the dollar will fall hard. Most of our [Chinese] foreign reserves are in U.S. bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen and other currencies…Gold is definitely an alternative.”

No wonder rumors were running rampant last week that the 403 tonnes of gold the IMF is selling will land in a Chinese vault.

Interestingly, while investment demand for gold inexorably rises, mined production of gold inexorably declines. Apparently, the folks who coax this precious metal from the earth can’t coax as much of it as they might like.

According to Grant’s Interest Rate Observer (citing statistics from the World Gold Council), worldwide gold production has dipped over the last seven years. Gold production since 2002 has declined from 2,590 metric tons to 2,486 metric tons through June 30.

These divergent trends – demand up and supply down – do not guarantee a rising gold price, but they do suggest that a rising gold price may become the path of least resistance.

Obviously, substantial above-ground supplies of gold – in bank vaults, around fingers, in belly buttons, etc. – will find its way into the gold market if/as/when prices rise. Nevertheless, a powerful inflationary trend would produce enough investment demand for gold to easily absorb all sources of supply…and ALSO push the gold price higher.

“There is a growing distrust of paper currencies amid a deluge of massive government deficits since late 2008,” Roseman concludes. “The dollar might be the biggest drunk at the bar, but the euro and other currencies are also drinking their way to devaluation against gold.”

Source: The New Gold Buyer

It’s a world shrouded in deep myths and folklore that include stories of people losing their homes, or having 5,000 bushels of soybeans dumped on their front lawn.

I’m talking about the commodities world, of course.

But despite these tall tales, commodities aren’t necessarily dangerous investments. Not if you know what you’re doing and take adequate precautions. Rather, the “secret society” stuff comes from the belief that the sector is a murky one that many investors simply don’t understand. Just the mere sound of “commodity futures and futures options contracts” was enough to send people running for cover…

However, nothing could be further from the truth when dealing with commodities. And over the past few years, we’ve seen great changes in the financial world that have opened the doors to this “secret society.”

Step Out of Your Comfort Zone… Don’t Be Afraid of Futures & Futures Options

I’ll tell you what I’ve told my friends and acquaintances over the years: Don’t be scared of commodity futures and futures options, they’re essentially little different than stock and stock options. If you know how to trade stocks and stock options, then there’s no difference from futures and futures options.

For example, if you can buy and sell IBM (NYSE: IBM) shares and IBM options, then why can’t you buy and sell sugar futures and sugar options? There is no difference. As long as you have an idea of where an investment (be it IBM or sugar) might move to and its underlying fundamentals, then what is there to be scared about?

Here’s the problem as I see it (based on my 18 years of experience in the commodities sector): Most people just don’t know enough about the underlying fundamentals of commodities – how/why soybeans, cocoa, cotton, or live cattle trade in a certain way. The majority of people know stocks and that’s that. They don’t like change and are fearful to step out of their comfort zone.

But all commodities that are available to trade on various U.S. exchanges are highly regulated. They have strict rules, which are efficient and assure the integrity and safety of your capital.

So if you’re looking to add some great potential gains to your portfolio, then consider what commodities can do for you…

Four Commodities… Four Explosive Moves

Want some examples of how explosive the world of commodities can be? Just look at these moves for oil, natural gas, gold and silver over the past year…

How would you have liked to hop aboard some of those moves?

Oil: When it started rising in 2007 and topped in 2008, it encompassed a staggering $90,000 move if you’d held just one contract. And the freefall that ended last March brought in an unheard of $110,000 for anyone being bearish.

If you’d held 10 contracts during those moves, you could have seen gains of over $1 million! And that’s just one direction. Double it if you went both ways.

Natural Gas: The move up in the summer of 2007 to the top in 2008 encompassed an $85,000 move, while the drop back down to the lows hit just two weeks ago and saw an even larger haul of $110,000. And this was for holding just one measly little contract. Imagine if you had 100 contracts.

Gold: From the gold chart below, you can see the trend higher from 2002. But even if you got onboard as late as 2006, the move could still have netted you $45,000.

Silver: A bullish position taken in 2006 would have scored $60,000 on just one contract. And if you’d hopped on the bear train near the highs in the spring of 2008, you could have pocketed another $65,000 just six months later.

This is some serious money folks.

And the great thing about commodities is that it’s normal for them to cycle from highs to lows and then back again. This gives you opportunities to profit on the way up and the way down. Moreover, it’s in contrast to the stock market, where most moves are biased to the upside.

Now, if you want to profit today…

Three Reasons Why You Should Trade These Four ETFs

Due to the changes that have taken place in the commodities world, regular investors have a chance to take part in the sector without leaving the comfort of a stockbroker.

We’re talking about commodity-related exchange-traded-funds (ETFs), which mimic the moves of the underlying asset. So you can use them to play some of the most popular and active commodity markets.

For example, if you’d like to go for oil, natural gas, gold, and silver, consider these ETFs:

• Oil: United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO)
• Natural Gas: United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: UNG)
• Gold: SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
• Silver: iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)

If you want to gain exposure to the often lucrative commodities world, here’s why you should trade these ETFs…

1. Simple: ETFs trade like stocks, so you can buy and sell them as you would with shares of any other company from a regular stock brokerage account. So you don’t even need to get involved with commodity brokers, futures, or futures options contracts.
2. Options: The ETFs also have options available, which offers you more leverage and can reduce your risk.
3. Liquidity: Because all four of these ETFs are the largest ones available for their respective commodities, there is enough volume to be able to get in and out quickly and safely.

Next time, I’ll show you one of my favorite ways to use an options strategy to execute a bullish commodity trade. But in the meantime, check out those ETFs above.

Good trading,

Lee Lowell

Source: Four Easy Ways to Trade the World’s Top Commodities

It’s true; gold has become noticeably less unpopular during the last few months. It is still not as popular an investment as, say, AIG or the shares of almost any other incompetent financial institution. But some investors have actually begun to admit that they’ve purchased some gold.

A couple of the most conspicuous gold-buyers – the Chinese government and hedge fund manager, John Paulson – represent quintessential examples of the “new” gold buyer. This new type of buyer does not also buy ammunition, bottled water and Lynyrd Skynyrd tank tops. Nor does this new gold buyer spend Saturday nights sipping Gallo Hearty Burgundy in his La-Z-Boy, while flipping through binders full of Walking Liberty gold coins.

These new gold buyers do not LOVE gold nearly as much as they FEAR paper. But they are buying aggressively nonetheless…and leaving their tracks everywhere.

Earlier this year, for example, Paulson & Co., the hedge-fund firm run by billionaire John Paulson, became the largest holder of the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD), an ETF that buys gold bullion. The New York-based firm owned 8.7 percent of the fund, as of March 31. Paulson has also taken very large stakes in several gold mining companies – in particular Gold Fields Ltd. (NYSE:GFI), Kinross Gold Corp. (NYSE:KGC) and AngloGold Ashanti Ltd. (NYSE:AU)

Paulson has lots of company among mom and pop investors who are allocating some of their capital to gold. As the nearby chart illustrates quite clearly, the SPDR Gold Trust ETF has been accumulating ever-rising quantities of gold bullion – all in response to investor demand.

Although this chart is a bit dated, the trend it illustrates remains firmly entrenched. As of September 21, this ETF controlled 1,563 tonnes of gold, making it the world’s fifth individual holder of gold. The Swiss central bank, by comparison, holds only a little more than 1,000 tonnes of gold.

Meanwhile, the Chinese doubled their official gold holdings last year, and have been making a lot of headlines with some very public gripes about the dollar. A couple weeks ago, Cheng Siwei, former vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, complained, “If [the Fed] keeps printing money to buy bonds, it will lead to inflation, and after a year or two, the dollar will fall hard. Most of our [Chinese] foreign reserves are in U.S. bonds and this is very difficult to change, so we will diversify incremental reserves into euros, yen and other currencies…Gold is definitely an alternative.”

No wonder rumors were running rampant last week that the 403 tonnes of gold the IMF is selling will land in a Chinese vault.

Interestingly, while investment demand for gold inexorably rises, mined production of gold inexorably declines. Apparently, the folks who coax this precious metal from the earth can’t coax as much of it as they might like.

According to Grant’s Interest Rate Observer (citing statistics from the World Gold Council), worldwide gold production has dipped over the last seven years. Gold production since 2002 has declined from 2,590 metric tons to 2,486 metric tons through June 30.

These divergent trends – demand up and supply down – do not guarantee a rising gold price, but they do suggest that a rising gold price may become the path of least resistance.

Obviously, substantial above-ground supplies of gold – in bank vaults, around fingers, in belly buttons, etc. – will find its way into the gold market if/as/when prices rise. Nevertheless, a powerful inflationary trend would produce enough investment demand for gold to easily absorb all sources of supply…and ALSO push the gold price higher.

“There is a growing distrust of paper currencies amid a deluge of massive government deficits since late 2008,” Roseman concludes. “The dollar might be the biggest drunk at the bar, but the euro and other currencies are also drinking their way to devaluation against gold.”

Source: The New Gold Buyer

So speculative betting on gold going higher now equals a record-busting 752-tonne position in Comex futures and options, yet this is not a bubble according to Michael Pento of Deltaga.

Let’s say otherwise. Let’s say that gold prices, surging by almost $100-per-ounce in barely a month, are very much in a bubble…blown up by near-zero interest rates worldwide and a sharply negative cost of borrowing after inflation. Were that the case, the question before potential and existing investors would be simple:

Is this “irrational exuberance” or a “permanently high plateau”?

Alan Greenspan applied the former to US price/earnings in Dec. 1996; Irving Fisher said the latter of US equities in Oct. 1929. Both were looking at what history would decide were clearly bubbles in hindsight. But Greenspan was three years and 105% early.

Fisher spoke less than 72 hours before the Great Crash began…

Buying gold always looks “irrational” to most financial advisors and commentators, because it doesn’t pay an income or yield.

No matter that gold has beaten all other asset classes bar none since the start of the decade. People looking to buy gold (the blue line of Google searches above) have been underwhelmed with content and analysis online, despite outstripping the volume of “buy stocks” searches (in red) for nearly five years.

Gold buyers have also averaged 20% gains year-on-year since this point in 2004. That compares with -0.6% on average from shares, but so what? Check the spike in “buy stocks” stories highlighted by Google Trends’ lower chart during October last year. Just when gold turned sharply higher – and stocks still had another 40% to fall – the news-flow focused on bottom-fishing in equities.

Gold’s productive value is also judged to be nil next to foodstuffs, energy or base metals – materials that vanish in use and thus display a clear supply/demand dynamic. Whereas all the gold mined in history—being indestructible—is still with us today…some 165,000 or so tonnes. That makes a fundamental case for gold built on tight supply, rising demand absurd. Nor can TV or newspaper journalists get used to applying “exuberance” to gold, the ultimate in gloom-and-doom insurance outside your local gun-store.

But while permanent plateaus are harder to find in finance than geology, gold’s peg-legged clambering of the last nine years most certainly puts it higher than it started.

What’s powering the Stannah Stair-Lift today? In a word, leverage.

Liquidity (meaning “leverage”, as 2008 proved) has flooded back into the big investment houses, thanks to tax-funded injections, quantitative easing, and central-bank asset guarantees.

Near-zero interest rates sure help as well. And that, in turn, has enabled what we used to call investment banks to revive their prime broking services, offering to deal whatever leverage-hungry clients want most, and financing the trade with that ultra-cheap money.

The most leverage-hungry clients, outside of the banks’ own proprietary trading desks, remain hedge funds – hedge funds which doubled in number from 2003 to end-2007 (Hedge Fund Review), growing their assets under management from $600bn (Goldman Sachs’ estimate) to $2.9 trillion (HedgeFund.net) before hitting the credit crunch precisely as Bear Stearns blew up.

Just as the long-run bull market in gold threatened to keel over on this sudden withdrawal of derivatives leverage, however, the physical appeal of owning gold – or a near proxy, at least – came into its own.

Physical gold investment surged in the back-half of 2008 and early 2009, rising 150% from July-to-Dec. 2007 before adding two-thirds of that fresh record between Jan-and-March this year alone. (Data courtesy of the World Gold Council.) And now that deflation seems to be tipping ever-so-smartly into inflation – and the surge in ETF, coin and bar demand has eased off – leverage is back just in time for gold’s typical autumn move higher, a pattern seen 20 years in the last 40 and delivering some 15% gains on average this decade between Sept. and Feb. even for cautious investors buying on cash, rather than margin.

Inflation, deflation, who cares? Whether it’s exuberant hedgies or panicked private investors with something to lose, this “bubble” in gold – if that’s what you choose to call it after a decade of beating everything else, and four years after it broke sharply higher versus all currencies, not just the Dollar – just keeps expanding.

Sub-zero real rates of interest sure help. Media hype, to date, is missing. When those two factors reverse, buying gold may well become irrational – and whatever plateau it’s reached might well give way.

Regards,
Adrian Ash

Source: Gold: A Permanently Exuberant Plateau

Fortunately for us, we foresaw this scenario a while ago. On April 20, I recommended that investors diversify their portfolios by adding the SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD).  The fund is up about 14% since that recommendation, but it’s not yet time to sell, as there are still a number of factors working in gold’s favor.

For starters, there is more and more talk of the U.S. dollar losing some of its luster as a reserve currency.  But this debate is moot for the moment.  The reality is that it will take a long time to reduce the preeminent role of the dollar as the store of value of choice for central banks around the world.

Earlier in March and later in June, Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the People’s Bank of China made a pitch for the creation of an international global currency delinked from sovereign currencies.  This increased speculation about the probability of China deemphasizing the dollar within their extraordinary high foreign reserves of almost $2 trillion.

Some 64% of global reserves are in U.S. dollars, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). So if China and other holders of U.S. debt were to reduce their holdings, it would have a substantial impact on the greenback’s value, as well as on U.S. interest rates, given that those countries would be selling U.S. Treasuries.

Zhou suggested the use of the IMF’s Special Drawing Rights (SDRs) as an alternative. The SDR is a currency linked to a basket of four major international currencies in the following approximate weightings: U.S. dollar (44%), euro (34%), Japanese yen (11%) and British pound (11%).

But the reality is that this would be highly impractical. To begin with, there are almost no instruments denominated in SDRs that China and other countries could invest their reserves.  And if the IMF issues the instruments, then it would be taking the other side of the trade, which means it would have to start lending in SDRs, too.  This is very unlikely.

Furthermore, no other currency on the planet is large enough to serve as the world’s main reserve currency.  The sole exception, in terms of having a comparable size of the economy, is the euro.  The euro serves 16 members countries of the European Union (EU) and a few others peg their currency to it.  But the problem with the euro is that even though the entire EU is comparable in size to the United States, it is comprised of many countries with very different fundamental strengths and weaknesses.

Therefore, each of these countries issues bonds and each of these, by themselves, are too small and offer too little liquidity for central banks to accumulate as reserves.

But right now – given the large size of the current and projected U.S. deficits and the easy monetary policy – the incentives for holding dollars have diminished.  The risk that inflationary pressures will build up next year, and in turn lead to higher interest rates, are not negligible, even though the U.S. Federal Reserve keeps assuring the markets that it will stifle these pressures before they materialize.

Last Friday, John Taylor, a renowned economist and an expert in monetary policy, opined that the Fed would need to start raising interest rates in early 2010 in order to stem price pressures.

In the meantime, emerging markets such as China and Russia complain about the vulnerabilities of the U.S. dollar.  But these visible complaints have to be construed merely as verbal intervention.  These countries are acting in their own self-interest, because they have very large holdings of U.S. Treasury bonds.  They are trying to “encourage” both the Fed and the U.S. government to act very prudently and conservatively with monetary and fiscal policy.

The United States has offered plenty of assurances to China that it will remain vigilant about inflation. But the trick is being able to identify these inflationary pressures and to take action way before the actual inflationary pressures become entrenched in the economy.  And the Fed will need to rely on its projections to do that.

In this uncertain environment, making economic projections is much easier said than done.  And one would rather err on the side of being a bit late in raising interest rates and reducing quantitative easing. If the Fed is slower than needed, and some inflationary pressures build, it they can resort to raising rates a bit faster and resolve the problem. But if the central bank raises rates – and reduces the quantitative easing policy too soon – it could send the economy into another recession.

This could be problematic since it would increase the risk of the U.S. economy falling into a deflationary spiral and put additional pressure on the U.S. financial system.  Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that the Fed has greater incentive to err on the lenient side than on the hawkish side.

Remember that we are not out of the woods by any means.  Unemployment, which is a lagging indicator, is still increasing and there are many other large problems to resolve in the economy. Without even considering the impact that healthcare reform will have on the U.S. budget deficit, we see the following important headwinds:

• Consumers are very weak.  It’s not just the jobless that have been affected.  The uncertainty about continued employment for those who still have jobs led to an increase savings rates as would be consumers postpone spending.
• The huge drop in home prices has put about one in four homes in an “upside down” mortgage situation. That means consumers cannot sell their houses without taking a loss, and cannot borrow against their homes to make other expenditures.
• The drop in home values has had another effect:  It has increased the need for consumers to save.  This need has been reinforced by the large hit to 401(k) savings and other retirement plans.  As a result, savings rates have zoomed to 7% of personal income. The savings rate could even hit 10% as consumers strive to rebuild their nest eggs.  Additionally, the “Baby Boom” generation has saved too little and retirement is just around the corner.  Consumers make some two thirds of the U.S. economy, so this new predisposition to saving will be a drag on consumption for a long time.
• Capacity utilization is still low, which greatly reduces producer pricing power.  This, along with very high unemployment, gives the Fed time for now.  Low capacity utilization also keeps investments in factory expansion low.
• Recent banking data revealed that many smaller U.S. banks will be closing their doors, taxing the already overstretched resources of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC), which will have to be recapitalized, adding to the U.S. fiscal deficit.
• We have not yet seen the fallout from the commercial real estate drop, which Money Morning has warned will be severe.  Since the U.S. consumer is not buying as much, many properties will not be able to keep up with their payments and will default on their loans.  Commercial real estate generally follows the trends in residential real estate with one or two years of lag.
• Last, but not least, we are going to see an economic acceleration in the United States in the third quarter, but that acceleration might be driven to a large extent by inventory rebuilding.  The U.S. economy will probably surprise to the upside in the third quarter with growth.  Among other things, the government’s Car Allowance Rebate System (CARS), popularly known as “Cash for Clunkers,” should show up positively in the numbers.  But once the levels of inventories are brought up to their necessary levels, that extra growth will not be present in the following quarter.  And the demand from Cash for Clunkers will cease to be a factor.

All of these reasons warrant caution for the Fed.  Some economists, including Nobel Prize winner and former World Bank Chief Economist Joseph Stiglitz, have highlighted the risk of a “W-shaped” recession/recovery scenario, and have even suggested the need for another stimulus package.  While that might do more harm than good, this position highlights the dovish bias that the Fed is likely to maintain.

What About the Rest of the World?

China enjoys many degrees of freedom to move its economy forward and has had resounding success in doing so.  It has no debt and more than $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.  Its banking system is small in relation to the size of its economy, which gives the country a lot of room to expand credit, and the savings rate of its consumers is sky-high.  This leaves China with the capital resources to deploy growth strategies.  Since the largest companies are all government-owned, when the government decides to deploy capital, it gets done swiftly and powerfully throughout the economy, with great effect on growth.

As a result, China’s economy grew at the breakneck annualized pace of 14% in the second quarter.

Other emerging markets, like Brazil and India, are in similar, though not as potent, positions to move their economies forward. And they are doing so aggressively. India is expected to post on average 7% plus of annual gross domestic product (GDP) growth.

Emerging economies – those that did not splurge the bonanza of the prior five years of strong growth in commodity prices and other exports — are now in the position of stimulating their economies with easy monetary and fiscal policies.

Massive stimulus packages, the scorching demand growth from capital investments, and reborn consumers in emerging Asia, have combined to rekindle global growth.

Resurgent Growth in Europe

Both Europe and Japan are emerging from their recessions – even though Japan may post a negative growth number in the fourth quarter – and Britain and Italy are lagging behind in the recovery.  But the most important European economies, led by Germany and France, are pulling ahead.

It is understandable that European Central Bank (ECB) President Jean Claude Trichet, recently mentioned that the recovery was uneven in Europe.  Most market pundits took this as a sign that Europe would not be raising rates as fast as previously anticipated.

However, keeping interest rates low is much harder to do than it is to say.  Unlike the Fed, which has symmetric objectives – promoting economic growth and controlling inflation – the ECB’s only mandate is to control inflation.  The reason for this notable difference in objectives is that the European economy is much less flexible than the American economy, mainly due to its very rigid labor laws and other regulations.

Thus, the Europeans start running into inflationary problems when their economy grows above 2.5%.

The ECB just raised its own growth forecasts.  Similarly, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), which comprises the 30 most influential free-market representative democracies, indicated that the global recession is coming to an end much faster then they previously thought, but said that the recovery will rely on massive spending and low interest rates for some time.  The OECD cited the strong rebound in Asian economies as having jumpstarted this global reacceleration.

Because the Federal Reserve will have to err on the cautious side, and because of the institutions’ differing mandates, the ECB will probably tighten monetary policy before the U.S. central bank does. That means the euro and emerging market currencies will keep appreciating against the U.S. dollar and the price of gold will soar.

The protests that will come from time to time from Chin and Russia will be just that: verbal intervention.  They will not resort to sudden changes in the composition of their foreign reserves, at the risk of doing further damage to the dollar.

In fact, China and other countries generate some 90% of their large current account surpluses in U.S. dollars.  But their holdings of dollar-denominated assets are only about 64% of their total reserves.  That means they already consistently sell the difference, and this selling so far has not decimated the dollar.

So do not expect a sudden devaluation of the greenback, nor fear China currency reallocations.

But we can and do expect a gradual weakening of the U.S. dollar to occur next year.

And as much as we all hate it, we will be able to take comfort in the fact that we avoided a much worse evil: Deflation.

So we are going to remain playing it with gold.  Also, this “currency” play gives us added diversification to the portfolio.

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: The SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) Continues to Offer Investors a Hedge Against Inflation

Gold broke through the psychologically important $1,000-an-ounce level for the first time in 18 months yesterday (Tuesday) as the U.S. dollar slumped against key foreign currencies, exacerbating investor fears that loose fiscal and monetary policies will spur inflation as the U.S. economy recovers.

The thinly traded September futures contract for gold traded as $1,006.90 an ounce on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, or NYMEX (Nasdaq: CME), the highest level for a short-term futures contract since March 18, 2008, MarketWatch.com reported. The contract closed the day yesterday at $997.90, up $3, or 0.3% for the trading session.

The London gold fixing – a global benchmark – traded as high as $1,000.75 an ounce yesterday. Its previous high was also on March 18, 2008.

Now that gold has pierced that technical barrier, some analysts are looking for the yellow metal to return to its all-time-record high of $1,033.90 an ounce – a record set last March.

“The higher the price, the higher the volatility, but this market is so concerned with inflation possibilities and dollar weakness that momentum is bringing more investors to the ‘Buy’ side,” George Gero, a precious-metals trader for RBC Capital Markets (NYSE: RY), told MarketWatch.com.

Gold struggled to breach the $1,000 price level last week. Yesterday’s surge corresponded with a drop in the value of the U.S. dollar, which fell to its lowest point versus the euro this year.

“We had a good technical break higher last week and now the weaker dollar is helping gold progress higher,” Saxo Bank senior manager Ole Hansen told Reuters. “We are finally taking out some levels we haven’t seen for a while, especially in the currencies. On that basis, I would assume we will go up to test the highs from last year.”

The dollar fell as low as $1.45 per euro in morning trading yesterday, its weakest level since Dec 18, 2008, according to Bloomberg News. The euro has risen by about 15% against the dollar in the past six months.

Analysts have warned for months that the combination of a soaring budget deficit and expansive monetary policy could weaken the dollar and spur inflation.

The federal budget deficit for 2009 will reach a record $1.6 trillion, more than three times 2008’s record deficit of $455 billion, the White House’s Office of Management and Budget (OMB) and the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) said last month.

From 2010 to 2019, the deficit will balloon to $7.14 trillion, the CBO says, while the White House paints an even uglier, $9 trillion picture for the same period.

Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve has injected more than $2 trillion into the U.S. financial system and its benchmark lending rate remains at a record low range of 0.00%- 0.25%.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke has provided few clues about exactly what his so-called “exit strategy” will involve, or when it will be implemented. However, the Fed chairman has said that the Federal Funds rate will remain “exceptionally low” for “an extended period” of time, as the U.S. economy trudges toward recovery.

Few analysts believe Bernanke will even start to rein in the Fed’s fiscal stimulus before he’s absolutely certain an economic recovery is underway. Now, with the belief that inflation is hiding around the corner, investors are piling back into gold to hedge against the dollar’s decline.

“In the last year alone, the U.S. Federal Reserve has actually doubled the U.S. monetary base,” said Peter Krauth, a Money Morning contributing editor who is also the editor of the Global Resource Alert trading service. “That can only lead to serious inflation, perhaps even hyperinflation.  This will cause the value of the U.S. dollar – which has been eroding since 2001 – to decline at an even-more-frenetic pace.”

Krauth expects that gold prices will shoot even higher in the months and years to come, not just because of the dollar’s devaluation, but because demand is on the rise and global mining output is in decline. Global mine output has decreased at an annual compound rate of 0.8% from 1999 through 2008, according to GFMS Ltd.

In the meantime, demand for the yellow metal has skyrocketed. During the fourth quarter of 2008, for instance, North American and European purchases of gold coins and gold bars rose 811% over the same period the year before. And while demand for jewelry has flattened, new investment vehicles have made purchasing gold much easier for the average investor.

“Exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been a tremendous catalyst for swelling gold demand,” said Krauth, noting that the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) – the largest physically backed ETF on the planet – is now the sixth-biggest holder of gold bullion in the world.

The SPDR Gold Trust fund held 1,077.63 metric tons of gold totaling more than $34 billion in value as of yesterday, according to its Web site.

“Indeed, the fund’s influence on the market is such that it actually seems as if every year or so it moves up past year another nation in the global rankings of gold-bullion holders,” said Krauth.

Buying the SPDR Gold Shares is one way to get in on the gold rush. The fund’s price fluctuates in concert with the price of gold and it’s more convenient than buying gold bars directly.

For investors who are looking to hedge against the enormous inflationary pressures that are believed to be filtering through the U.S. economy, buying stakes in gold miners is another potential strategy to follow.

In this case, the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (NYSE: GDX) – composed chiefly of major gold miners – offers both company and geographic diversification, while including substantial leverage to the price of gold.  Market Vectors is based on the AMEX Gold BUGS Index (HUI), which represents a portfolio of 15 major gold mining companies that do not hedge their gold production beyond a year and a half.

Source: Gold Aims to Retest Record Highs After Breaking Through the $1,000 Mark

But prices remained rangebound as traders awaited clearer direction from the currency markets.

Spot gold was bid at $941.80 an ounce at 1523 GMT, against $943.55 an ounce late in New York on Tuesday. Earlier it rose as high as $949.85.

U.S. gold futures for December delivery on the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange were down $1.8 at $944.20 an ounce.

“We are probably going to stay fairly rangebound,” said Standard Bank analyst Walter de Wet. “We would have to see some decent dollar weakness for gold to move above $956-960.”

The dollar rose versus the euro and a currency basket, reversing early losses, after durable goods numbers from the United States.

The data showed June orders for durable goods, excluding transportation, rose less than forecast despite overall orders posting their largest advance since July 2007.

The report, however, was tempered by data showing a jump in U.S. new home sales last month that fuelled some selling in the dollar versus the euro.

U.S. stocks advanced after they July new home sales data, while European stocks gave up early gains to fall by early afternoon.

Demand from buyers of physical bullion remained sluggish as buyers awaited further price falls.

“Physical demand has dried up, but we are expecting more buying around $930-925,” said Commerzbank senior trader Michael Kempinski.

The world’s largest exchange-traded fund, the SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings fell another 4.58 tonnes on Tuesday, bringing its total outflow to 21.4 tonnes in the last four weeks.

LONDON ETF HOLDINGS RISE

But London-based ETF Securities said it saw the biggest ever one-day inflow into its ETF Physical Gold product on Aug. 25. Its holdings rose 211,500 ounces to 3.190 million ounces on Tuesday.

On the supply side, the Russian Gold Industrialists’ Union reported a 21 percent rise in gold output from Russia, the world’s fifth largest producer of the yellow metal, in the first seven months of the year.

Platinum received an early fillip from a strike at Impala Platinum’s Rustenberg mine in South Africa, where workers rejected the company’s latest pay offer on Wednesday.

Prices rose as high as $1,249.50, but later eased to $1,233 an ounce from $1,239 as investors took profits. “The price of platinum reacted only marginally to the news,” said Commerzbank in a note.

An Implats spokesman said more than 20,000 workers were involved in the strike, ignoring a weekend call from the National Union of Mineworkers to suspend the action.

Separately, Aquarius Platinum said contract workers at its Kroondal and Marikana operations in South Africa had launched a strike.

Palladium was at $283 against $286. Silver was at $14.24 an ounce against $14.24.

Aug 26 (Reuters)

There are a lot of uncertainties permeating the market right now, not the least of which is healthcare reform. Will that reform entail a public option that could add $1 trillion to the deficit?  How is reform going to be financed?  And is it going to mean higher costs for employers across the board, or just the healthcare insurers?

Investing is made infinitely more difficult when 18% of U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) is hanging in the balance.

And you still have to consider:

• That unemployment is likely to keep rising, perhaps over 10%.
• That the U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of quantitative easing is slowing down.
• That there is almost certainly a second wave of home foreclosures on top of the current commercial real estate epidemic.
• And that retail sales are still a long way from recovery.

There is also reason to believe that the U.S. dollar will continue to be weak, though it probably won’t sell off precipitously.

The U.S. dollar has weekend against the Euro lately, having fallen 0.8% Friday.  Technically speaking the chart shows a traditional “cup and handle” formation that could lead to an acceleration of the dollar’s downward trend.  Gold prices, up about 13% Friday, confirm this trend and could soon break through the $1000/oz resistance.

Fundamentally, if the economy – encumbered by high unemployment and a relapse of the housing market – does not pick up the dollar could be further imperiled.

Weakness in the dollar will also be affected by the Fed’s withdrawal of liquidity, which is likely to proceed at a gradual pace.

Finally, diversification away from the dollar among the world’s central banks is taking place, albeit at a slower pace than many analysts have suggested, and that too, is weakening the dollar.

Let’s concede that there is no currency that could supplant the dollar as the world’s major reserve currency. So, it’s unlikely that the world’s central banks will simply abandon the dollar anytime soon. However, we must also acknowledge that a reduction in the weightings of the U.S. dollar within central bank reserves is already underway.

An Aug. 14 article by BNP Paribas currency strategist Ian Stannard in Euromoney recently described this gradual shift in currency reserves.  The article noted that only 62.5% of global currency reserves are in U.S. dollars, down from about 66% in 2005.

So I do not anticipate a sudden shift in central bank reserves, but rather a continuation of the measured restructuring we’ve seen so far. Thus, the slow weakening trend in the U.S. dollar is likely to continue.

So, in this very uncertain investment scenario, I prefer to go for more secure returns in bonds.  And we can achieve great diversification at a cheap cost with the iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD).

For starters, its weighted average coupon of 6.26% offers a current yield slightly north of 6% at today’s prices.  Investors are assuming interest rate risk, which means that if interest rates climb, the value of the bond has to come down.  But in the short term, there is no immediate threat of inflation.

Looking at the major holdings of the fund – which has no single position that accounts for more than 1.26% of its total holdings – I see some names that have demonstrated continued stability and others that have shown recent signs of improvement, such as American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP).  So I do not expect any major credit spread hiccup here.  I certainly do not see any hiccup that a 6.26% coupon would not compensate for.

For an additional hedge against dollar weakness, I suggest you revisit my June 8 recommendation of the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD). You may also consider buying a bit of the PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN) fund.  Do not go overboard. Err on being light, rather than heavy on hedging, since timing currency moves is very difficult.

Recommendation: buy iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund (NYSE: LQD) at market.  Consider hedging part of the US dollar risk by buying the iShares SPDR Gold Trust ETF (NYSE: GLD) and PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bearish (NYSE: UDN). Both funds should account for a fraction of your position.  Have a 5% stop loss on UDN (**).

Source: Buy, Sell or Hold: The iShares iBoxx $ Investment Grade Corporate Bond Fund