The U.S. stock market has enjoyed a strong rally since the early spring, but while the economy has shown improvement, it still faces major headwinds. So it may be best to hedge against the U.S. dollar, which is likely to experience a significant decline over the next few months.
Two years into our “Great Recession” (or “Greater Depression,” depending on who you talk to) gold is selling for $944 an ounce. But back in 1980 – against the backdrop of double-digit inflation in America and a prolonged economic stagnation – gold reached a peak of $850. That’s the equivalent to about $1,900 in today’s money.
Yesterday, we spent the best part of the day studying James’s latest dispatch to members of his Strategic Investment research service. Frankly, what we read shocked us. Because it made us realize just how flimsy the case for a quick recovery is.
Upbeat headlines have been everywhere in recent weeks, and they all seem to point to a single conclusion: The U.S. economy is in the early stages of a very rapid recovery.
Gold rose on Thursday as the dollar fell versus a basket of currencies, with rebounding stock markets and U.S. jobless figures showing a decline in continuing claims boosting appetite for assets seen as higher risk.
As you review your investment portfolio to size up your current exposure to gold, keep one key point in mind: When it comes to profits, there’s no rush like a speculative gold rush.
I wouldn’t read a lot into the action in the gold market on Friday. It was just another day off the calendar…as Ted Butler would say. The only comment I would make is that the action in the gold price feels more like a top than a bottom.
Gold added about five bucks to its price from the time that trading began in the Far East Thursday…and the London a.m. gold fix. Then from there, it gave back seven dollars going into the p.m. gold fix…and after that, it gained over eight dollars until half past lunchtime in New York. Then a really serious seller showed up taking nine bucks off the price between then and the close of electronic trading in New York. It was pretty choppy trading all around…and it was obvious that every rally ran into serious resistance. The same could be said for silver.
It was a nothing kind of day yesterday. Both gold and silver got sold off at bit in the Hong Kong market late in their afternoon. This lasted until shortly after London opened. Then the prices just sat there until shortly before the London p.m. gold fix, when a N.Y. rally of sorts commenced in both, with neither metal going too far. Ted Butler pointed out to me that neither silver or gold got above their Monday highs…and that was probably the intent.
Gold got off to a slow start in Hong Kong and trended down through London but shot up around 11 a.m. in New York, hitting its intraday high near $955 two hours later. From 1 p.m. through the Globex close, the yellow metal retreated somewhat, finishing at $951.10/oz., up $2.10. Overnight, gold is trending higher.
