Brazil had clearly become the new “must-play” market for investors.

And then they had to go and spoil it all.

As promising a market as Brazil had become, it was the discovery of the massive Tupi oil field off of the country’s east coast – that really transformed Brazil into an investor’s dream. The oil and natural-gas reserves are located beneath heavy salt beds in deep offshore water. These reserves are 23,000 feet to 26,000 feet down, a depth that wasn’t even accessible until recently.

These Tupi reserves appear to contain at least 60 billion barrels of oil, worth $4 trillion at today’s prices. Tupi oil is expected to start hitting the market in 2011 or 2012. When that happens, it will revolutionize Brazil’s economy and its shift its balance of payments.

The exploration of the Tupi oil fields had been carried out by the Brazilian oil company Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE ADR: PBR) – more commonly referred to as Petrobras – in partnership with some of the international majors. The contracts call for the Brazilian government to receive royalties on any oil found.

Brazil is now one of only three top oil-producing countries to not assert state ownership of its oil reserves. Canada and the United States are the others.

This was very reassuring for the international oil majors. They’re used to dealing with fruitcake kleptocratic regimes in Venezuela, Angola, Nigeria and most of the Middle East. As a result, the Tupi deposits generated real excitement both among oil companies and among international investors in general. The feeling was that Brazil was about to end its two centuries of failed economic hopes. Fueled by oil revenue and additional economic activity, Brazil appeared ready to claim its true destiny as a wealthy country.

Unfortunately, it wasn’t to be.

Although there are several reasons for this, a key culprit is the election scheduled for next year. Incumbent Brazilian President Luis Inacio “Lula” da Silva can’t run again. But he’d very much like to choose his successor. The most likely candidate: current Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff.

Rousseff was put in charge of devising a scheme to capture more of the Tupi oil revenues for the Brazilian government and, nominally, the Brazilian people. Tales were spun of how the new revenue would finally eliminate Brazilian inequality, and bring its poorest citizens up to Western living standards.

The new system announced this month reflects this aspiration. A new state oil company, Petrosal, would be created to manage the reserves. Petrobras – aided by outside investor capital – would carry out production. And Petrosal and the outside investors would share the output.

This plan will imbue Petrosal with a lot of power. The company would control half the votes on the operating consortium. And it would have veto rights over production and capital expenditures.

The revenue would be managed by a new state fund. The fund would devote this new cash to poverty relief, education and infrastructure.

In the meantime, the existing royalty system would remain in place. Under this system, outside investors would pay both royalties and a production share. In one acknowledgement of marketplace realities, concessions already granted would not be torn up.

There are two major problems with this system. First, it makes life much more difficult and less profitable for oil companies wanting to invest in the Tupi oil field. Had Brazil torn up existing contracts, I believe the oil majors would have left. In the past two years, the world’s Big Oil firms already saw existing agreements torn up in Nigeria and Venezuela. There’s just no point investing large amounts of money under such risky conditions.

As it is, the new Brazil agreement applies only to new contracts. So I believe the oil companies will probably put up with this new system – at least as long as oil prices remain high. It’s not as if these firms have a lot of alternatives right now.

However, given how expensive it will be to extract this oil, if market prices drop, it may end up being difficult to attract Big Oil players.

The more dangerous problem is this fund, which is little more than a huge pool of money that politicians can play with.

As I mentioned, Brazil’s economy has been one of the world’s best performers. This year, in the face of a worldwide recession, Brazil’s gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline only 1%, according to the forecasting panel of The Economist magazine.

Inflation is 5% and the budget deficit is only 2.8% of GDP – both excellent figures in this difficult year. Brazil’s monetary policy is an example to the world, with short-term interest rates still at 8.65%, well above the inflation rate.

But this money pool plan puts that performance at risk.

Brazilian public spending is already 35% of GDP, very high for such a poor country. State bureaucrats have feather-bedded contracts guaranteed to them under the 1988 constitution. So this “slush fund” will just fuel Brazilian corruption, diverting still more of that country’s economy into the pockets of politicians, their friends and favoured interest groups.

It’s no use for Brazilian spin-doctors to point out that Norway and Alaska have funds of this nature. Norway and Alaska have small populations and relatively un-corrupt political cultures. This fund must inevitably represent at least 3%-5% of Brazilian GDP. And it will be mostly wasted, spent without the market having any say as to its use or destination.

I’ve been watching Brazil for more than 30 years; since I began travelling there for the merchant bank Hill Samuel [now part of Lloyd's Banking Group PLC (NYSE ADR: LYG)] in the late 1970s. It’s a maddening country: Just when you think the Brazilian authorities have finally got their act together, and that the country is ready to achieve the enormous economic growth predicted for it since at least 1900, something unexpected and foolish goes wrong.

This appears to have happened again. And that’s a real pity – for Brazil’s citizens, and for global investors.

Source: The World’s Most Exciting Market – Until They Spoiled it

Source: Investment News Briefs Friday, September 4, 2009

Energy shares led the decline after the sharp drop in China’s main stock index increased worries about a potential rebound in global energy demand and oil slipped below $70 a barrel.

Shares of Chevron Corp tumbled 1.2 percent to $69.81 and Exxon Mobil dropped 0.8 percent to $69.56. The S&P Energy index <.GSPE> was down 1.8 percent.

The Shanghai Composite index <.SSEC> fell nearly 7 percent to a three-month low on fears that China’s government is trying to moderate economic growth and choke off some speculation in its stock market by tightening bank lending.

“China’s decline is just scaring people,” said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Asset Management in Bedford Hills, New York.

“The world is partially relying on China’s economic growth to bring us out of this recession, and given the decline in China, there have to be concerns.”

Stocks in China have risen steadily, up 91 percent for the year at one point, despite the global recession. Commodity prices often got a boost from an increased demand from China.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.DJI> was down 68.17 points, or 0.71 percent, at 9,476.03. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index <.SPX> fell 9.81 points, or 0.95 percent, to 1,019.12. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.IXIC> dropped 23.54 points, or 1.16 percent, to 2,005.23.

The Bank of New York Mellon index of leading Asian ADRs <.BKAS> fell 1.5 percent to 119.98 while U.S.-listed shares of China Finance Online sank 2.1 percent to $9.40.

Financial stocks, which enjoyed a strong rally last week, changed their course after a number of bearish notes from analysts.

Rochdale Securities analyst Richard Bove wrote that in the short term, “a reaction to the recent move up in the stocks may develop.”

In addition, Barron’s recommended profit-taking in Citigroup and said American International Group shares were overpriced after gaining more than 50 percent last week.

Citi was down 3.8 percent at $5.03 while AIG dropped 10.7 percent to $44.88.

The weakness in energy and financial stocks overshadowed the news of two large mergers on Monday.

Walt Disney Co agreed to buy Marvel Entertainment for $4 billion, while Baker Hughes Inc said it would buy BJ Services Co for $5.5 billion.

Marvel shares soared 25.4 percent to $48.46, while BJ Services’ stock was up 4.6 percent at $16.15.

Also on Monday, the Institute for Supply Management-Chicago’s business barometer rose to 50.0 in August. The level was higher than expected, and was on the dividing line between growth and contraction in the sector.

Aug 31 (Reuters)

According to the US Department of Energy, liquid fuel demand in the developed nations peaked in August 2005 at 41.89 million barrels per day. Since then, it has plunged by 3.6 million barrels per day to 38.27 million barrels per day. However, you may want to note that despite these tough economic conditions, consumption has been extremely resilient in the emerging world. For instance, demand in the developing countries peaked in October 2008 at 46.33 million barrels per day and it is down by only 0.36 million barrels per day! I am amazed that the worst global recession in decades has barely managed to shrink energy demand in the developing world. Whilst this is wonderful news for the energy investor, it is a terrible sign for society.

At present, our world is using up roughly 84 million barrels of liquid fuels per day and for the moment at least, there is sufficient supply to meet demand (Figure 1). However, when economic activity picks up, it won’t take much for demand to zip right past supply. Remember, it is much easier to increase usage, but it takes a long time to ramp up production. So, unless this is a permanent global recession (which I doubt), it is inevitable that the price of oil will go up significantly over the medium to long-term.

Figure 1: Supply and demand – balanced for now

Source: www.yardeni.com

On the supply side of the equation, let me be clear. If I was asked to pick the biggest threat to a sustainable economic recovery, Peak Oil would top that list. Remember, Peak Oil doesn’t mean that we are running out of oil reserves, crude will be around for decades. However, ‘Peak Oil’ does imply that we are dangerously close to peak global oil production. ‘Peak Oil’ also means that rather than experiencing a burst in oil supplies as many expect, from here onwards, we will witness sharp declines in global flow rates. In a nutshell, the era of cheap energy is over and the price of crude oil will rocket higher over the coming decade.

Now, many skeptics will argue that if Peak Oil was real, the price of oil wouldn’t have dropped to roughly US$30 per barrel in last autumn’s stunning crash. Valid point; but let us not forget that the spectacular plunge occurred at a time when global economic activity virtually came to a standstill. Let us also keep in mind that last autumn’s crash in asset prices was caused by a total freeze in credit and the associated asset liquidation. Whilst I agree that the final action in crude oil’s parabolic blow-off last July smacked of speculation, I can assure you that speculation alone couldn’t have created a multi-year boom whereby the price of crude oil went up by almost 1500%! As you can see from Figure 1 above, supply clearly fell short of demand between 2005 and 2008, and this is why we had a magnificent bull-market in crude oil.

Make no mistake, global demand for liquid fuels will rise again – and if my homework is correct, supply won’t be able to keep up. If you ignore the noise and review hard data, you will observe that the vast majority of the world’s most prolific oil provinces are now past peak production and in a state of permanent depletion. According to the BP Statistical Review of World Energy, out of the 54 oil producing nations and regions in the world, only 14 are still increasing production. Alarmingly, 30 oil producing nations and regions are definitely past their peak output and the remaining 10 appear to have modestly declining production rates. Put another way, when weighted by production, Peak Oil is already a grim reality in 61% of the oil producing world!

Still not convinced about Peak Oil? Then review Figure 2, which charts the expected combined flow rates for crude oil, lease condensates and Canadian Oil Sands. As you can see from the grey shaded area, production is about to decline by roughly 5 million barrels per day by 2012.

Figure 2: Has crude oil production peaked?

Source: The Oil Drum

Ironically, Figure 2 also plots the optimistic (almost laughable) forecast made by the International Energy Agency (IEA) in its “World Energy Outlook 2008”. Interestingly, in last year’s “World Energy Outlook”, the IEA stated that in order to fulfill its optimistic projections, the world had to install 64 million barrels per day of new supply by 2030 or the equivalent of six times the Saudi Arabian output! Furthermore, the IEA declared that the energy industry had to invest hundreds of billions of dollars every year to achieve this favorable outcome.

Now, I can understand that the IEA is a government-funded agency so it has to paint a rosy picture, but it is ominous that the energy watchdog failed to mention where this surplus oil would come from!

Well, I guess you get the idea. Global crude oil production has probably peaked, new discoveries have dried up and there is a shortage of capital for investment purposes. Apart from these factors, if you believe the energy optimists, all is well in the energy industry and the price of oil is about to drop to zero!

After years of extensive research, I have no doubt in my mind that unless global demand stays weak forever, we will see supply shortages in the not too distant future. And before that occurs, the price of crude oil will stage an explosive rally. Accordingly, I suggest that all my readers allocate a large proportion of their investment portfolio to upstream energy companies and to businesses in the energy services sector.

Finally, in the energy complex, the price of natural gas is still scraping along its recent crash low and this is a fantastic long-term investment opportunity. As we approach winter in the Northern Hemisphere and heating demand picks up, we are likely to see a big rally in the price of natural gas. So, investors may want to allocate capital to this unbelievably inexpensive commodity.

Regards,

Puru Saxena

Source: Peak Oil: Supply Data Doesn’t Lie

Frankly, I’ve written so much about the UBS mess over the last year that I am sick of it…and I’m sick of the greedy, crooked UBS bankers and staff that stupidly thought they could use Swiss bank secrecy laws to cover their illegal tax evasion advice, while running up fat fees for themselves and billions in deposits for UBS.

This thoughtless criminal activity not only added to the instability of UBS – already $50 billion in the hole because of bad investments exposed by the global recession – but their conduct needlessly called into question the admirable privacy policies and bank secrecy laws of the Swiss government.

Asking for it

UBS tarnished not only its own reputation, but also that of a major nation and its people.

But worst of all, what UBS did allowed the tax bullies at the IRS to:

1) smear thousands of honest Americans who bank offshore;
2) attempt to scare away thousands more who could benefit by doing so;
3) pretend to extend U.S. tax law jurisdiction to the entire world;
4) use blatant economic blackmail against not only an errant bank, but against a friendly country that has long been a faithful ally and against its 7.6 million people.

The agreement lifts the threat of U.S. criminal prosecution against UBS, the world’s number two wealth manager by assets.

The IRS was not only willing to risk endangering the bank’s existence, but it could have dealt a major blow to the Swiss and U.S. economies. (UBS has 20,000 American employees).

The Anti-Offshore PR Campaign Rages On

You can expect that the left wing, anti-tax haven crowd will play this as the death, not only of Swiss bank secrecy, but the beginning of the end for all offshore financial centers.

Don’t they Wish!

IRS Commissioner Doug Shulman (left) crowed, “It’s a real sense that the world of bank secrecy is eroding.” According to The Times, “The agreement is likely to unnerve American customers of UBS who do not know if their names will be divulged, and could deter others from opening Swiss accounts in the future.”

On that second point, we hope not. There are still plenty of opportunities to open an offshore account with a sound financial institution…which is – sadly – is not necessarily the case in the United States.

And on the first point, I can speak for the whole of the Sovereign Society when I say that we don’t really care if illegal tax evaders are nervous. They should be.

But we certainly hope that honest, tax paying Americans (and others) who desire real financial privacy, true asset protection and expert investment advice will realize the fact that they still have the right to employ Swiss banks, investment advisors, insurance and annuity specialists – and not be scared away from the very real benefits offered by the world’s leading offshore financial center.

Swiss Banks Still Available

Whether all this will change the Swiss banking industry’s culture of secrecy based on law is doubtful in my opinion. But the IRS has made clear that their pursuit of tax evaders will not stop at UBS.

Some smaller, centuries-old private Swiss banks, however, are stepping up their efforts to attract American money, given the importance of foreign clients to the nation’s financial institutions.

Understand that the Sovereign Society does not condone tax evasion in any form, a point we have made repeatedly in our publications throughout our entire existence.

Of course there is a simple way for you to avoid personal tax troubles – file the proper IRS reports on time and pay your taxes when they’re due, as we have often explained.

We Are Prepared

To tell the truth, we at the Sovereign Society saw this coming a long time ago…

We meet regularly with Swiss and other offshore bankers, and we have agreements with reputable Swiss banks willing to accept new accounts from those who identify themselves as Sovereign Society members.

These arrangements are in full compliance with IRS and SEC rules and other U.S. laws. U.S. clients must sign an IRS Form W-9 that allows an offshore bank to report required information to the IRS.

As it has been since our founding 11 years ago, our staff is available to assist in opening a Swiss or other offshore account. Take advantage of these special Swiss banking arrangements and the advice of our Swiss advisors by visiting our member’s only website today.

We at the Sovereign Society believe that personal and financial privacy is an inherent human right, a requirement for maintaining the human condition with dignity and respect.

In all this ruckus about UBS and the IRS, the basic issues are preservation of our personal freedom and liberty versus complete government control of our lives and our fortunes.

Yours Truly,

Bob Bauman

According to a July survey conducted by the European Commission (EC), expectations that prices will fall reached their highest level since the commission began tracking comparable data in 1985.

The same survey also showed that excess manufacturing capacity is at its highest point since at least 1990 – another indication that the 16-nation Eurozone region is flirting with a prolonged period of deflation where consumers are reluctant to spend and retailers are forced to keep cutting prices.

Prices in the Eurozone fell 0.1% year-over-year in June. Six Eurozone nations reported negative inflation for the month – Ireland, Portugal, Belgium, Spain, Luxembourg, and Austria. Prices in Ireland fell the furthest, sinking 2.2%, followed by Portugal, where prices fell 1.6%. Belgium, Spain, and Luxembourg all saw price declines of 1%.

Data set to be released tomorrow (Friday) is expected to show that prices slid a further 0.4% in July from a year ago, according to a survey conducted by Reuters.

However, weaker-than-expected price data from Germany released Wednesday could mean an even steeper drop in prices for the region. Consumer prices in the Eurozone’s largest economy fell 0.6% in July from a year earlier.  It’s the first time German inflation turned negative since comparable data was compiled in 1995.

Economists at BNP Paribas said in a research note that they expect Eurozone inflation will fall to –0.6% in July. But the bank also said that it expects the Eurozone’s deflationary period to be short-lived, as the price decline will be exacerbated by low oil prices and seasonal retail discounts.

“The drag on inflation will reach its peak this month, given the favorable comparison with July last year, when oil prices reached their highs,” BNP said.

Still, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has urged Eurozone policymakers to maintain fiscal stimulus next year and keep interest rates low, as an economic recovery is “highly uncertain.”

“It will be essential to maintain this stance as long as disinflationary pressures persist,” the IMF said.

The European Central Bank’s (ECB) main interest rate currently stands at a record low 1%, but analysts have criticized the bank for not loosening monetary policy quickly enough.

Other central banks “have their own responsibility and decisions and I have already said that as far as we are concerned, we would be very, very keen to avoid to be put in a situation which for us would not be appropriate, namely a liquidity trap,” ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet said last year after the U.S. Federal Reserve announced its decision to cut its benchmark rate to a range of 0%-0.25%.

Source: Eurozone Deflation Becoming a Bigger Concern

Companies posting solid results before the bell included AON Corp and industrial conglomerate Tyco International Ltd .

Goldman Sachs raised its recommendation on GE to “buy,” saying comments made by the chairman of a key congressional committee suggests a decreased chance of a break up of the finance arm of the diversified industrial manufacturer.

U.S. House Financial Services Committee Chairman Barney Frank in an interview with Bloomberg late on Wednesday suggested there was broadening support for regulatory reform that would not mandate the separation of GE Capital, Goldman analysts said.

GE shares rose 5.5 percent to $12.94 before the bell.

“A lot of this is a follow up of the resilience we’ve seen in the market over a couple of weeks. The clear sentiment is to be buying on any dips,” said Matt McCall, president of Penn Financial Group in Ridgewood, New Jersey.

“We get buying into the close on a consistent basis. The trend right now is higher. We have earnings improving, and that’s giving people the reason buy.”

S&P 500 futures rose 6.6 points and were above fair value, a formula that evaluates pricing by taking into account interest rates, dividends and time to expiration on the contract. Dow Jones industrial average futures climbed 53 points, and Nasdaq 100 futures were 8.5 points higher.

Investor sentiment was also buoyed by signs that the global recession is abating following upbeat economic reports from Europe.

European stocks were up more than 1 percent after data showed July euro zone economic sentiment rose to its highest level in eight months, while German unemployment unexpectedly fell for the first time in July.

International Paper Co posted a 40 percent drop in second-quarter profit but said the worst of the economic downturn had passed, and it was seeing improvements in some markets. . IP shares rose 3.3 percent to $19 in premarket trading.

Motorola Inc shares rose 3.5 percent to $6.80 before the bell after the mobile phone maker swung to a quarterly profit.

Exxon Mobil Corp shares fell 1 percent after it reported second-quarter earnings.

The U.S. economic calendar includes the weekly report on initial jobless claims at 8:30 a.m. (1230 GMT). A Reuters survey of economists forecast claims to have risen to 570,000 from 554,000 the previous week.

Also on the calendar is a record $28 billion 7-year note auction from the U.S. Treasury, which could make investors cautious on the heels of poor demand for two government auctions this week.

NEW YORK, July 30 (Reuters)

Investors saw PX climb up almost 25% before pulling back. Since our recommendation, it’s up almost 10% – and we think it can run even more.

With 27,000 employees in 30 countries, Praxair produces, sells, and distributes atmospheric, process and specialty gases to a wide array of customers around the globe.

It’s also a manufacturer of high-performance surface coatings for metals. The company’s advanced manufacturing segment designs and manufactures cryogenic and non-cryogenic gas supply systems for various manufacturing processes.

In February, the company beat analysts’ earnings estimates. In May, it beat them again. In fact, it’s beaten estimates for the last 15 quarters in a row. It’s no wonder it consistently has one of the best analyst ratings in the S&P 500.

It’s one of the most profitable companies in the industrial gases sector. How does it do it? Good management, expense control, and downsizing when necessary.

Praxair’s CEO, Stephen F. Angel, is unloading 1,600 employees to shore up the balance sheet. “Demand appears to have stabilized, but at a lower level, with overall volumes down 12% versus the prior year.”

The company tightened its estimates for the full year, but only by a few percent. It’s using this slower period to make strategic acquisitions, recently acquiring Sermatech International, a global supplier of protective coatings. In the last year, Praxair has made 15 acquisitions, mostly to strengthen its distribution network.

The real growth story, however is in China and how it’s providing a significant buffer to the effects of the global recession being felt here in the United States.

The company’s Chinese subsidiary – Praxair China Investment Co, Ltd. – is the largest industrial gas supplier in China with over 18 locations and 1,200 employees.

Praxair China is supplying liquid argon gas to the Nanjing Puzhen Rolling Stock Works, a subsidiary of China South Locomotive & Rolling Stock Corporation Ltd.

Nanjing Puzhen is the premier state-owned manufacturer of rail cars and urban metro trains in the country with the fastest growing rail system in the world. The argon gas will be used at various welding stations in its railcar manufacturing lines.

The China rail system is the fastest growing in the world, with annual track increases of over 700 miles.

The company also announced a contract with Changhong Electric Company – one of China’s largest manufacturers of consumer electronics – to supply xenon gas mixtures used in the production of plasma display panels.

There are a number of other Chinese agreements as well, but the bottom line here is that Praxair continues to buck the recession with good old fashioned growth in what is turning out to be the largest market in the world for its products.

On July 29^th, the company will announce earnings for it’s second fiscal quarter. Given its amazing track record, and an increasing growth story in China, there’s a good chance it will beat estimates again.

Farther out on the horizon, the economic stimulus plan will spur many industrial and construction projects in the second half of 2009 and 2010, further increasing the demand for the company’s products.

If you’re looking for a great company in the industrial materials sector, you need look no further than Praxair.

Source: Praxair (NYSE: PX): Stock of the Day

The yen and pound also sagged. “Fear, trepidation, use any term you like to describe the market bias today, but one thing is for sure, the term ’safe haven’ is back en vogue,” said Dan Cook, of IG Markets..

Traders were keeping a close eye on the G-8 summit that opened yesterday in Italy. But most analysts believe that the policy makers of the biggest economies will focus on ending the global recession, and improving credit and trade, instead of debating the status of the buck.

“Any discussion about the U.S. dollar’s reserve status being challenged has been heavily played down in recent days and draft communiqués that have been leaked indicate no reference to this issue,” said Christian Lawrence, rates and foreign-exchange strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

That could affirm the resignation on the part of Chinese officials and others who may have concluded, albeit reluctantly, that a fall in the dollar would be too self-defeating for those holding large dollar reserves.

“There seems to be a recognition among a growing number of administrations that it would be better to avoid a fresh slide in the U.S. dollar from here,” wrote Simon Derrick, chief currency strategist at Bank of New York Mellon.

Source:Buck Advances vs. Most Currencies