Yesterday, we spent the best part of the day studying James’s latest dispatch to members of his Strategic Investment research service. Frankly, what we read shocked us. Because it made us realize just how flimsy the case for a quick recovery is.
Upbeat headlines have been everywhere in recent weeks, and they all seem to point to a single conclusion: The U.S. economy is in the early stages of a very rapid recovery.
I wouldn’t read a lot into the action in the gold market on Friday. It was just another day off the calendar…as Ted Butler would say. The only comment I would make is that the action in the gold price feels more like a top than a bottom.
Gold added about five bucks to its price from the time that trading began in the Far East Thursday…and the London a.m. gold fix. Then from there, it gave back seven dollars going into the p.m. gold fix…and after that, it gained over eight dollars until half past lunchtime in New York. Then a really serious seller showed up taking nine bucks off the price between then and the close of electronic trading in New York. It was pretty choppy trading all around…and it was obvious that every rally ran into serious resistance. The same could be said for silver.
It was a nothing kind of day yesterday. Both gold and silver got sold off at bit in the Hong Kong market late in their afternoon. This lasted until shortly after London opened. Then the prices just sat there until shortly before the London p.m. gold fix, when a N.Y. rally of sorts commenced in both, with neither metal going too far. Ted Butler pointed out to me that neither silver or gold got above their Monday highs…and that was probably the intent.
Gold got off to a slow start in Hong Kong and trended down through London but shot up around 11 a.m. in New York, hitting its intraday high near $955 two hours later. From 1 p.m. through the Globex close, the yellow metal retreated somewhat, finishing at $951.10/oz., up $2.10. Overnight, gold is trending higher.
Gold declined gently throughout Far East and early European trading on Tuesday…and by shortly after lunchtime in London…had given up around four bucks. From there, a smallish rally developed that made an attempt to continue rallying on the Comex, but got cut off at the knees [at its high of the day] shortly after 9:10 a.m. Eastern time. This decline lasted until 1:15 p.m. in New York…and by the time electronic trading ended at 5:15 p.m. yesterday afternoon…gold was back to virtually unchanged from Monday’s close.
Gold traded sideways through Hong Kong and most of London then surged up to an intraday high of $953 at around 9 a.m. in New York only to completely erase the gains less than an hour later. From 10 a.m. through the Comex close gold showed a steep downward trend but reversed course and made up most of the day’s losses on the Globex, finishing at $949.00/oz., down $0.10. Overnight, gold has moved lower.
Gold held just under $950 an ounce today, Wednesday, as the dollar steadied against a basket of currencies with weakness in the euro underpinning prices, but gains were capped by lack of physical demand for the metal.
All was calm in Far East trading on Friday morning. Both metals began to slip a little starting at 3:00 p.m. on Friday afternoon in Hong Kong. This lasted through London trading as well…and by the time the Comex opened, gold was down $10 and silver had slid about 23 cents.