Yesterday, we had a couple of Fed Heads talking, but the Big Kahuna stood out and moved the markets with his statements… Here’s the skinny…

Big Ben was giving a speech, and said, “The Fed will monitor closely the currencies, and the Fed’s policies will ensure that the dollar is strong.” Now, when he first uttered those words, the dollar got bought and the non-dollar currencies were sold… But then, a few of us had this feeling… It was a feeling that we had heard all this before… And there – in the archives, circa June 2008 – Bernanke said, “In collaboration with our colleagues at the Treasury, we continue to carefully monitor developments in foreign exchange markets.” Wait! We won’t get fooled again!

In June 2008, his statements spooked the markets into believing the Fed was really going to do something to bolster the dollar… But when nothing came along, the dollar REALLY got sold until the financial meltdown of August 2008… I mean… What has the Fed done in the past 1 1/2 years to “bolster the dollar”? Near zero interest rates that will remain in place for longer than they should… Quantitative easing… A bloated balance sheet of toxic bonds.

You could see the V-8 moments on traders’ faces when they realized, yesterday, that all this had been said before, and nothing came of it, so… We won’t get fooled again!

So, then traders reversed their buying of the dollar and sent the dollar to the woodshed. You should have seen the reversal… It was amazing…

Click here to read the rest of Mr. Butler’s article.

I hear it a lot from inexperienced Wall Street analysts, bloggers, and money managers who spend little time living in the “real world”.

Here’s what they’re saying: “Gold is way too popular now… It’s near the end of its bull market.” The recommended “action to take” is to cash in your gold profits and move on to something different.

I can tell you that taking this advice is a big mistake. Anyone who believes gold is too popular with the mainstream public simply doesn’t know who the mainstream public is… and they don’t understand how bull markets end.

Sure… gold is up big since it broke out to a new high in September. In just over two months, it has climbed from $950 an ounce to $1,100 an ounce.

Click here to read the rest of Brian Hunt’s analysis of the state of gold, published online at Fleet Street Invest.

It’s easy to make money…if there are no surprises. You just put your money in something that is going up and let it go.

But surprises sink ships, marriages, military campaigns and investment portfolios. Things happen that you’re not prepared for…

A friend told of what happened to a mutual friend:

“I guess it was the embarrassment that bothered him most. I don’t know. He was happily married…or he thought he was. They had three children. They must have been married 10 years. And then, she announced she was a lesbian…and moved in with a woman.

“I imagine he was devastated. He didn’t seem to have any idea. But just think how you’d feel. You’d think that you were so awful you’d turned her off on the whole male sex. She wanted nothing more to do with any of them…”

Yes, dear reader, you have to watch out for the surprises…

Stocks have been rising since March 9th. Yesterday, the Dow went up another 15 points… The Dow now looks toppy…like it will go down again soon. But the rally may have further to go – maybe all the way to 10,000, as we originally guessed.

And yesterday’s rain of news brought forth another green shoot. New houses are selling again – with sales up 11% in June. Maybe it’s time to buy a house. Better yet…buy a huge house with a huge, fixed-rate mortgage! Sometime between now and the next 30 years a fixed-rate mortgage is bound to lose its bite. What are the odds that inflation won’t rise in the next three decades?

Last week, in Vancouver, we left listeners confused.

“Should I buy gold or not?” was the question one posed.

It’s a good question… we’ll turn to it in a moment.

First, the background…

Everyone knows that stimulus leads to inflation. And everyone knows that this is the most daring use of stimulus ever attempted. Ergo, it seems likely that we will soon see the most inflation we’ve ever seen.

But it’s not that simple. The story is too easy to tell. It’s too obvious. Too logical. Too easy to explain and too easy to understand. Under these circumstances, inflation would be no surprise!

At least…that’s been our worry. That too many people understand the inflation threat and are positioning themselves to avoid it. Everybody can’t be right. As they say on Wall Street, when everyone is thinking the same thing no one is thinking.

But is it true? Is it true that people fear inflation and that they are taking investment positions to counteract it? Alas, we don’t know…but perhaps not. Neither the yield on Treasuries nor the price of gold signals a panic about inflation. Just the contrary; they seem to be telling us that investors are complacent…that they’re aware of the inflation threat. They may be even sure that inflation is coming. But they seem to think that they can take action later – after inflation actually shows up. Seems reasonable, doesn’t it?

The inflation rate is currently MINUS 1.4%. That is, we’re experiencing deflation, not inflation. Why try to protect yourself against something that is such a distant threat?

Our guess is that this is what most investors are thinking: that inflation is coming, but that it isn’t here yet. They’re watching…they’re holding their fire…but they won’t be surprised by it.

But what if they’re facing the wrong way? While they’re keeping an eye on inflation, what could be sneaking up behind them?

Ah…keep reading…

Practically everyone anticipates rising rates of inflation. The adjusted monetary base of the United States has more than doubled in the past year. Deficits are staggering. The price of oil – at $68 – is telling us that inflationary pressures haven’t gone away. Gold, too, at $953, seems to be whispering – not shouting – a warning: watch out…

So, what’s the prudent thing to do? Shouldn’t you keep an eye on inflation, like everyone else…and participate in the stock market rally at least until it shows up? If you failed to join the rally, you missed an opportunity for a gain of 20% to 40%. Though a correction in the rally is probably at hand, wouldn’t it make sense to buy stocks…hold them until the rally ends or until inflation appears…and then jump into gold?

Yes…that seems sensible.

But where’s the surprise? Here’s one possibility: a much deeper and more persistent depression/deflation than people expect. Ben Bernanke told Congress that he had sought to avoid “a second Great Depression.” Well…what if he failed?

Roger Lowenstein in The New York Times:

“The US economy is not only shedding jobs at a record rate; it is shedding more jobs than it is supposed to. It’s bad enough that the unemployment rate has doubled in only a year and a half and one out of six construction workers is out of work…

“The Federal Reserve now expects unemployment to surpass 10 percent (the postwar high was 10.8 percent in 1982). By almost every other measure, ours is already the worst job environment since the Great Depression…

“In terms of its impact on society, a dearth of hiring is far more troubling than an excess of layoffs. Job losses have to end sooner or later. Even if they persist (as, say, in the auto industry), the government can intervene. But the government cannot force firms to hire.”

Job losses result in fewer purchases…which result in fewer sales and earnings…and that leads to more job losses and falling prices. That’s what a depression is all about.

Currently, we look at that -1.4% inflation rate as a fluke…an aberration. And most people are sure the feds will stir up the inflation rate soon. But what if the feds are more incompetent than we realize? What if they can’t cause inflation? The Japanese couldn’t. And they never had deleveraging consumers to contend with. In other words, theirhouseholds were never so deep in debt that they had to cut back spending in order to pay down debt. But they cut back anyway…and Japanese prices fell.

Nor did the Japanese have an entire world economy that was deleveraging. Instead, they were able to continue supplying goods to eager consumers in the United States…and making profits.

America’s economic situation is much more dangerous…and potentially much more deflationary. We could be entering a period of falling prices that will last for many years.

So, should you buy gold or not?

Ten years ago, we suggested a simple Trade of the Decade. Buy gold on dips; sell stocks on rallies.

This was not the best trade you could have done. There were huge run-ups in stocks and in oil, for example. Many investments would have paid off more. Google was probably the biggest hit of the period.

But the Trade of the Decade looked to us like the safest, surest thing you could do with your money at the turn of the century. Gold was at a record low; stocks were at a record high. What could have been easier?

And it turned out to be a decent trade.

The decade is not finished. So, we’ll stick with our trade a bit longer. Our guess is that we’ll see some additional profit when the stock market turns down again. But gold’s big day still may be a long way in the future.

So, if you are looking for quick profits, gold is probably not a good buy. It’s a monetary metal. It is fundamentally a protection against paper money and financial distress, not a real investment…or even a speculation.

Since we rate the risk of financial distress very high, we buy gold – as insurance. But we do not expect a major bull market in gold soon. Later, after deflation and depression have surprised investors and squeezed inflationary expectations out of them, we will buy gold as a speculation. Then, investors will be surprised by how fast inflation comes back.

Source: Inflationary Surprises

When I was a child I could never sit still on a long road journey. I was always asking, “Are we there yet? Are we there yet? ARE WE THERE YET???” My father would always reply “Nearly, son… Nearly,” even though we were still miles from our destination.

This is exactly how the financial markets seem to me right now. It’s been more than two years since the credit crisis kicked off, and I’m getting itchy in my seat: I want to be back out there playing with the other financial (whizz) kids. But it feels like the end of this current rocky road is still on the distant horizon.

Wall Street wants you to believe things improving… that we are on the road to recovery… and that “green shoots” are starting to appear in the economy. Call me a cynic, but I’m just not convinced.

Wednesday’s central bank actions on both sides of the pond signal that we are NOT there yet. In the US, the Fed left its interest rates on hold… and dangerously close to the zero bound. And it announced that it expected economic activity to remain weak for “some time.” The Fed is also continuing with the $300 billion Treasury repurchase plan (its massive and highly experimental money printing operation).

Meanwhile, the European Central Bank launched its first ever 12-month loan auction (at the 1% benchmark rate). This will pump a whopping €442 billion into the banking system.

With the credit markets still broken, the European banks snapped up the funds. Over 1,000 banks took part. It’s no wonder. Who would say no to a 12-month loan at just 1% when you can lend to Joe Public at over 10%? There’s an arbitrage trade I’d like a piece of… in any market.

To be a true contrarian there has to be a consensus view. And at the moment, market participants are all pulling in different directions. The ‘experts’ are busy trying to call the end to the slowdown. And they’re hoping it sticks. Meanwhile, the the Fed and the Treasury continue to hose the economy down with extra liquidity. This is a brave new world. And an extremely dangerous one for rookie investors or investors reaching retirement or who are already retired – one false move in this type of market could prove fatal.

The Fed’s recent policy message should have resulted in a stock market rally. Bernanke & Co hinted at the much anticipated return to inflation (“the prices of energy and commodities have risen of late”) but then washed all the momentum out of this trade by saying “the Committee expects that inflation will remain subdued for some time”.

Markets hate nothing more than uncertainty. And until we have a more harmonious voice either direction from governments and policymakers this turmoil is going to continue. So I’m burying that impatient kid in me for now and sticking to the safe stuff. And so should you: stick to cash, gold and investment grade fixed income for now.

While I’ve always doubted that the “money on the sidelines” argument is really all it’s cracked up to be, one can hardly argue with a recently released report from Harris Private Bank of Chicago [part of the U.S. arm of the Bank of Montreal (NYSE: BMO) that notes that stocks have rallied for the next two years whenever money market assets have exceeded 25% of the capitalization of the Standard & Poor's 500 Index. According to the Los Angeles Times, that figure is now 43%, down from 58% after having peaked in December - and that's even after the 30%-plus run-up in the S&P 500 since March.

What's interesting is that many investors holding large cash positions view their money as an asset, when, ironically, it's really more of a liability at this stage of the game.
Some might take issue with that statement. After all, even we at Money Morning have counseled readers that cash - correctly deployed - can allow an investor to sidestep the worst stretches of a financial crisis, like the one from which we're currently attempting to extricate ourselves.

But when the markets are as beat up as they as they have been, history suggests there's probably more upside than downside - even if we haven't bottomed out yet.
And there's a broad body of research to support that contention - including our own newly created "LSV (LIBOR/Sentiment/Value) Index" (published as a part of The Money Map Report, the monthly investment newsletter that's affiliated with Money Morning).

There's also data sets widely published by others, such as Yale Economics Professor Robert J. Shiller. Shiller has found that when you look at 10-year periods of Price/Earnings (P/E) data dating all the way back to 1871, the markets tend to rise when the average P/E is low, as it is right now. Conversely, when the average Price/Earnings values are high - as they were in late 1999, and again in 2007 - a decline in stock prices is much more likely.

There are obviously no guarantees that history will repeat itself. But if it does, the same data implies we could see real returns of 10% a year or more "for years to come," as Shiller noted in a recent interview with Kiplinger's Personal Finance.

My own research seconds the general-market-increase theory, but I'm much more conservative in my expectations of returns and think that returns of 7% are more likely.

Perhaps what's more important right now is that inflation typically accompanies growth - and with a vengeance. And that means that investors who are sitting on cash "until the time is right" may have their hearts in the right place but are relying on the wrong protection strategy.

My recommendation is a four-part plan that can help lock in the expected returns you want, while also protecting your cash from the ravages of inflation. Let's take a close look at each of the four elements of this strategy:

• First, protect your cash with Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPs). Even though the trillions of dollars the Fed has injected into the system seem to be having some effect on the critically ill patient the U.S. central bank is trying to fix, we're likely to pay a terrible price in the future. Forget the hyperinflation scenario so many people are hyping at the moment. While that's certainly possible, it's not probable. However, what is likely is a dramatic realignment of the dollar and a general increase in worldwide living expenses.

If you're based in the United States and have mostly U.S. assets, you may want to consider something as simple as the iShares Barclays TIPS Bond Fund (NYSE: TIP) to offset this risk. The TIP portfolio is chocked full of inflation-indexed securities, but it also offers a healthy 7.46% yield. If you've got international exposure, you may also want to consider the SPDR DB International Government Inflation Protected Bond ETF (NYSE: WIP). It's a collection of internationally diversified government inflation indexed bonds that provides similar protection. Make sure you talk with your tax advisor about both, though. Depending on your tax situation, you may find that because of the tax liability on inflation-related accretion, these are generally best held in tax-exempt accounts.

• Own some gold but don't go crazy. Despite widespread belief to the contrary, gold has never been statistically proven as an inflation hedge. But the yellow metal has proven to be a great crisis hedge because of the 10:1 relationship between gold prices and bond coupon rates - which obviously are directly related to inflation. Over time, the two move in such a way that having $1 for every $9 in bond principal can help immunize the value of your bond portfolio.

So to the extent that you own gold, do so not because you expect it to rise sharply, but because it will offset the inflationary damage to your bonds. A good place to start is the SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) because it's tied directly to the underlying asset without the hassles or risks of direct personal storage associated with bullion.

• Consider commodities. It's too early to tell if the so-called "green shoots" that everybody is so excited about are little more than weeds. Therefore, it makes sense to concentrate on picking up resource-based investments. History shows that these things are less susceptible to downturns, but more importantly, rise at rates that far exceed inflation when a recovery begins in earnest.

I prefer companies like Kinder Morgan Energy Partners LP (NYSE: KMP) that are less dependent on the underlying cost of energy than they are on actual growth in demand. That way, if energy prices don't take off immediately for reasons related to deflation or stagflation, those still will benefit from demand growth. It's a fine point, but one that merits attention for serious investors. KMP, incidentally, yields an appealing 8.68% at the moment.

• Short the dollar to hedge your bets still further. Not only is the government going to borrow nearly four times more than it did last year, but when you add the complete federal fiscal obligations into the picture, our government owes nearly $14 trillion. This makes the dollar, as legendary investor Jim Rogers put it, "a terribly flawed currency" that could fail at any time.

To ensure you're at least partially protected, consider the PowerShares DB U.S. Dollar Index Bearish Fund (NYSE: UDN), which will rise as the dollar falls. It's essentially one big dollar short against the European euro, the Japanese yen, the British pound sterling and the Norwegian kroner, among other currencies.
In closing, there is one additional point to consider. You rarely get a second chance to do anything, especially when it comes to investing. So act now before the markets make it cost-prohibitive to protect yourself. When the economic recovery gets here, you'll be glad you did.

Source: Four Ways to Immunize Your Cash Against the Ravages of Inflation

[Editor's Note: Fourteen trades. All profitable. Since launching his Geiger Index trading service late last year, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald is a perfect 14 for 14, meaning he's closed every single one of his trades at a profit. And he did this in the face of one of the most-volatile periods since the Great Depression. Fitz-Gerald says the ongoing financial crisis has changed the investing game forever, and has created a completely new set of rules that investors must understand to survive and profit in this new era. Check out our latest insights on these new rules, this new market environment, and this new service, the Geiger Index.]

Before you tell me I’m wrong, let me ask it this way…

• If inflation returns, or even hyperinflation…
• If the economic crisis persists and gets worse…
• If uncertainty and fear continue, and chaos and rioting begin…
• If stock markets languish or suffer another meltdown…
• If the recovery spending of the world’s governments proves futile…
• If government interference in the economy continues to increase…
• If the value of the U.S. dollar takes a major fall…
• If world recovery from the current recession/depression takes years…
• If you’re still wondering whether you have enough “safe” money…

…would you feel you own enough gold?

If all those things come to pass, I suspect many of us, including myself, would wish we had a few extra gold coins or bars stashed away.

So let’s assume you answered “No” to my question and need to add some ounces to your collection… is now a good time to buy?

The Best Time to Buy Gold?

Before glancing at the chart below, if you had to pick the month with the weakest average gold price, which would you select?

In our current 8-year bull market, June has seen the lowest return for gold. In other words, it’s been, on average, one of the best times to buy.

How does this compare to the bull market of the 1970s?

In the last great bull market, summer also was a good time to buy gold (although April was even better.)

What about gold stocks?

Since 2001, July and October have been the weakest months for gold stocks, as measured by the AMEX Gold Bugs Index, and the best times to buy.

However, keep in mind that these are price tendencies and not certainties. There were Junes when gold was up, and some Julys when gold stocks were up. Meaning, avoid using this chart for trading purposes or in anticipation of an immediate gain. Instead, use it to prepare for possible gold price weakness ahead. And if the weakness shows up, treat it as a buying opportunity and add to your holdings to position yourself for the next leg up in the bull market. Consider that this summer could be the last chance to buy gold for three figures.

Don’t lose sight of where we are at this point in the recession – in an intermission in the bad economic news. When it becomes apparent that the good ole days aren’t coming back, sentiment – and markets – could move rapidly. And gold is one of the best forms of capital that can protect you in a financial Armageddon. That gold was up in 2008 is a reminder of its protective power.

How much gold should you have? Continue to accumulate physical gold until you can honestly say you don’t care how many dollars Ben Bernanke prints.

Having physical gold in your possession is always a good idea in times of economic turmoil – there is no “uncertainty hedge” like it. But to actually make money, you should also look at premium gold stocks. Our current favorite has been so consistently successful that we call it “48 Karat Gold.” Click here to learn more.

Underground investor Christian DeHaemer says junior gold stocks are the ones to watch. In fact, he says this asset class will be “the number one asset class over the next two years.” This means that junior miners could make you more money than any other asset class in the near future. According to DeHaemer, there are several factors contributing to this play (most of which will be familiar to Notes readers).

For one thing, the US is creating more money than at any time in history in an effort to inflate the next bubble, save the banks, and extend the hand of government. Bloomberg has put the total bailout bill at $12.8 trillion, which is roughly this year’s annual GDP. The profligate spending by current and past administrations is well documented and ultimately must lead to inflation. What we are seeing now is the de facto definition of an inflation-generating machine. […]We have seen from the 1970s that hard assets perform better in a high inflation environment. Add to this a falling dollar, which is the other side of the same coin, and a flight away from paper currencies into gold, and you get a powerful long-term trend in real assets like oil and gold.

*** Christian says junior miners are a great way to play this scenario because they offer low risk and high reward…

Junior gold stocks didn’t fully participate in the rally that drove gold from $250 to $1,000 per ounce over the last seven years. But they absolutely got hammered in the commodity/credit bust of 2008. Many fell by 75% or more. And these are the top-tier, small companies with little or no debt and plenty of proven reserves. These are companies that were trading at market caps from $500 million to $1 billion a few years ago, that you can now buy in the $100 million range… in December I was able to pick up some of these small-cap gold companies for little more than the cash they had in the bank.

This kind of trade is for gutsy investors only. But here at Notes we reckon this could pay off big time.

P.S: James Davidson’s Crisis Strategy Alert portfolio continues to soar to new heights, without the risks of conventional investments. James has a nose for what he calls “investment outliers” — assets mispriced by crisis conditions. One “income outlier” he recently discovered allows ordinary citizens to pick up “tax rebate” (up to $781.33 a month). These monthly payouts are easy to set up. But you must act fast. The next check could arrive as soon as 4.00 EDT, Friday, June 12.

This kiloton of Chinese gold makes the Middle Kingdom the world’s sixth largest holder of the yellow metal. The U.S. — courtesy of President Roosevelt’s gold confiscation in 1933 – tops this list of the world’s largest gold holders, followed by Germany, the IMF, France and Italy.

How did the Chinese accumulate so much gold? China purchased it over the past six years through its State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE). SAFE is quite distinct from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC). The SAFE purchases meant that the gold did not appear as part of China’s officially reported monetary reserve figures.

The Chinese gold purchases, evidently, were part of a slow and steady buying program between 2003 and the present. It makes you wonder what the Chinese were thinking back in 2003. I happen to know, courtesy of an acquaintance at the Naval War College, that the Chinese were quietly forecasting that the U.S. would destroy its dollar by going to war in Iraq.

At any rate, SAFE bought all of the gold from domestic Chinese suppliers, so the overall impact was minimal on the international gold markets. Now the Chinese gold holdings have been transferred from the SAFE books to the PBOC. Hence, the official announcement. And here’s what REALLY matters. China is monetizing its gold!

This SAFE-to-PBOC transfer marks a profound decision by Chinese government leaders. Obviously, the Chinese government has bought gold over the past six years. But the Chinese have been engaged in an internal debate over whether to add the gold holdings to the official Chinese monetary reserves. That is, if the gold was not “monetary,” then it was just another non-monetary investment commodity like iron ore or copper or petroleum.

But now, with the announcement by the Chinese Central Bank, it appears that the debate is resolved. The gold has been added to Chinese monetary reserves. This action by China is part and parcel of an under-the-radar global effort to rehabilitate gold as a monetary reserve asset.

Gold has not been a factor in global trade and currency exchange since the late 1960s. But there’s a powerful movement afoot in the world to reestablish gold as part of an international monetary system. It’s because the U.S. dollar has been so badly mismanaged over the decades. No, you won’t read about it in your local newspaper, or even in the standard, mainstream business media. But that movement is out there. It’s happening.

At the same time, for many decades, the U.S. establishment has pooh-poohed the “gold effort.” U.S. policymakers, politicians, bankers and academics were collectively smug in their empirical certainty that, as Lord Keynes once noted, “Gold is a barbarous relic.” Apparently, the Chinese don’t agree. Not anymore. Indeed, the Chinese may well be thinking that the U.S. dollar is the real “barbarous relic.”

So now the Chinese are primed to begin using gold as a monetary asset. What’s the practical impact? I expect to see central banks worldwide start to add gold to their monetary reserves. The floodgates are opening. The PBOC and other central banks from here to Timbuktu are going to become net purchasers of gold in the years ahead. And people who own physical gold, as well as shares in well-managed mining companies, will benefit greatly.

One important commentator on gold prices is Peter Munk, founder of Barrick Gold, the world’s largest gold-producing firm. Recently from Switzerland, Munk remarked, “I have to think [gold prices] are going to be significantly higher than last year, just like last year was higher than the year before.”

According to Munk, the recent injection by the Federal Reserve of new currency into the money supply is an “enormous, enormous inflationary factor” for the dollar. This will make gold and silver “more and more desirable.” In addition, “Gold has got a very strong and stable support right now as long as we have this enormous uncertainty out there. And I think this uncertainty will probably last for a while, because I don’t see any major catalyst that can turn this around.”

Finally, Munk said, “Every year in the last three years, as the world becomes less and less secure in terms of normal investments and people lose faith and confidence in bonds, stocks, secured debt instruments, people turn to gold. It automatically attracts people in direct proportion to their fear, and that is fear of losing their money.”

Founded by Munk in 1983, Barrick Gold is among the world’s largest gold miners. Barrick has pursued growth through judicious expansion and a continuing process of acquisitions. “Barrick has grown,” said Munk, “primarily through an aggressive acquisition program in the last 25 years. So of course, we’d be on the lookout all the time for strategic acquisitions or mergers…The major gold deposits throughout the world in the main have already been found, so it’s getting more and more difficult, and that’s why you see global gold production heading downward, despite higher prices and increased spending on production.”

The bottom line in all of this is that you should be sure to pad your portfolio with gold and silver, both the physical metals and shares in quality mining companies. America’s political leaders have promised to fight recession by debasing the dollar. That may be the one and only political promise you can ever really trust.

Source: Why is China Buying Gold?

James emailed Notes with his thoughts on gold and stocks yesterday. We think he’s bang on the money with his forecast.

I had expected a sucker’s rally into May. In the last two epic credit cycle deleveraging events – in 1873 and 1929 – both experienced a reflex rally after the autumn crash that lasted through the 20th month after the peak, which is to say, through May. If you check the calendar, we could be following the same pattern.
The question, of course, is whether we continue to follow past patterns, or whether the massive intervention (quantitative easing) orchestrated by the US and British governments will break the pattern.

Here I assume that if the intervention proves successful it will trigger a lot of inflation in a hurry. Once ignited, it would seem likely to stay with us (rather than merely push gold to a spike only to then peter out to the $700 region). On the other hand, if the intervention proves futile, as I expect, this should be equally or more bullish for gold, which has always rallied in real terms in post-bubble contractions.

My guess is that we’re pretty close to seeing whether “this time is different.” Both silver and gold are overbought, and I think they are likely to correct over the next few weeks. I also suspect that the stock market in general is going to disappoint as well. All the CNBC types who are now pounding the drums over the green shoots are soon going to be back on their hands and knees with magnifying glasses.

If the pattern holds, after a near-term pullback in stocks and metals, stocks will head south for a long dormant period, and gold and gold stocks will experience epic rallies that will last longer than Gordon Brown’s government and Obama’s popularity.

I see the market here as behaving as if it were motivated to cause the maximum possible losses for both bulls and bears. It rotates from convincing investors that their world is unraveling to reassuring them that nothing has changed. Then it turns around and saws the legs off of everyone who takes its most recent lesson to heart. You can’t safely hold long or stay short.

History may be ultimately unknowable. But research convinces me that a pattern recurs in post-bubble contractions. Time and again, gold has been the asset of choice. I can only project that it will be more so than ever this time, as history’s greatest deleveraging unfolds.

Follow this link to learn more about Crisis Strategy Alert

Investors believe they’ve seen enough evidence that the U.S. economy may be bottoming out to ignite one of the strongest stock-market rallies in years. After closing at a 12-year low on March 9, the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index has soared 32%. The  Dow Jones Industrial Average has zoomed more than 27%, and the tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index has rocketed 34%.

In a March 15 interview on the CBS show, “60 Minutes,” U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the United States escaped a repeat of the 1930s Great Depression. The economic downturn would hit bottom this year, with an actual recovery starting in 2010.

“And I think as those green shoots begin to appear in different markets, and as some confidence begins to come back, that will begin the positive dynamic that brings our economy back,” Bernanke told viewers.

But now those “different markets” appear to be sending some troubling signals.

Green Shoots Yield to Red Ink

Last week, Mexico reported that its economy contracted at an annualized rate of 21.5% in the first quarter. The report followed equally dismal reports from Japan, Germany and the United States. Japan – the world’s second largest economy – said its gross domestic product (GDP) contracted at a 15.2% clip, its worst performance since 1955. Germany’s economy shrank at a 14.4% annualized pace, its worst showing since 1970.

In fact, Europe as a whole stumbled in the first quarter, as economic activity in the 16-nation Eurozone fell the most in 13 years. The Eurozone’s economy contracted by 2.5% in the three months that ended March 31.

At home, the U.S. economy contracted by a 6.3% annual rate, with the U.S. Federal Reserve predicting “a gradual recovery” that starts in the second half of this year.

If uncertainty continues to be the watchword, how should investors position themselves?

Staying on the sideline may appear safe, but it’s actually been proven through research to be a risky strategy. For instance, after looking at S&P 500 returns between 1993 and 2007, Davis Advisors Funds found that investors who remained invested and didn’t try and “time” the market ended up being much better off than investors who moved in and out of the market – often missing strong days in the market, as a result, says Wellcap Partners Managing Partner Alan Schram.

Investors who remained invested received an average annualized return of 10.5%. But investors who missed just the best 30 trading days over this stretch saw that return drop all the way down to 2.2%. And the more strong days an investor missed, the worse the returns got, Schram says.

Here’s a summary of the results of that study, looking at the investor’s action and the average annual returns that resulted:

• Stayed the course: 10.5%.
• Missed the 10 best days: 7.1%.
• Missed the 30 best days: 2.2%.
• Missed the best 60 days: (-3.2%).
• Missed the best 90 days: (-7.4%).

Nevertheless, there’s still about $8 trillion sitting on the sidelines – enough to create a sustainable market really should the “green shoots” grow into a full-fledged recovery.

Are Income Stocks the Antidote in a Sick Economy?

OK, so it pays to stay invested – but invested in what? And what if the hoped-for recovery ends up getting blunted? After all, those “green shoots” could easily wither on the vine.

According to Money Morning Contributing Editor Martin Hutchinson, seeking out stocks with high – but sustainable – dividend yields is the perfect strategy for an imperfect market.

Stocks with high-dividend yields are one part of a two-element investing strategy that Hutchinson says can create “permanent wealth” for investors who are willing to follow it through. Gold is the other key part.

Income From Dividends: One Pathway to Permanent Wealth

Dividend payouts are a way that a company’s leadership can signal its confidence in the future, Hutchinson says. A company has to have profits and – just as important – cash flow to finance the quarterly payouts, so a company that is maintaining a high yield is basically letting its investors know that it’s upbeat about its future.

Management is “basically saying to you that we’ll be able to keep paying this going forward,” which is a bullish sign, Hutchinson says.

Income is a key component of any investment strategy.

“Dividends create wealth in two ways. First, they provide cash flow that you can either use for living expenses or to reinvest: That means there’s no more having to sell shares, often at a depressed price, to meet your monthly bills, or to finance a vacation or home remodeling,” Hutchinson says. “Second, if you buy shares with high dividend yields, there’s a good chance that the market will eventually notice the superior [dividend] payouts, and revalue the shares so that their dividend yield is back down around the market’s average. For a dividend yield to go down in this manner, the stock price has to go up. Once that happens, you have received dividends and capital gains.”

While dividends provide income stability, gold provides a hedge against the inflationary pressures that are virtually certain to emanate from the massive amounts of money that the federal bailout and stimulus plans are injecting into the U.S. economy.

The recent surge in the prices of both gold and oil are proof that the markets expect inflation to escalate.

“Gold and gold-based investment – such as gold-mining companies – are an important part of a permanent-wealth-investment strategy because of gold’s historic function as a store of value that is impervious to inflation. At the moment, when inflation is low but there is a big danger of it rising, gold investments are an essential protection for permanent wealth investors,” Hutchinson says.

Source: As Key Global Markets Stumble, Gold and Dividend Stocks May Keep Investors on Course