Banks that require funding will have 30 days to present a capital-raising strategy to regulators and then six months to implement it.

It is unlikely that any of the banks will require any additional taxpayer money.

J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), MetLife Inc. (NYSE: MET), American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP), Bank of New York Mellon Corp. (NYSE: BK), BB&T Corp. (NYSE: BBT), Capital One Financial Corp. (NYSE: COF), U.S. Bancorp (NYSE: USB), and State Street Corp. (NYSE: STT) are in the clear in terms of having adequate capital cushioning.

The following banks will be required to raise these assigned amounts of capital:

• Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC): $34 billion.
• Wells Fargo & Co. (NYSE: WFC): $13.7 billion.
• GMAC LLC (NYSE: GMA): $11.5 billion.
• Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C): $5.5 billion.
• Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS): $1.8 billion.
• Fifth Third Bancorp (NASDAQ: FITB): $1.1 billion.
• KeyCorp (NYSE: KEY): $1.8 billion.
• PNC Financial Services (NYSE: PNC): $600 million.
• Regions Financial Corp. (NYSE: RF): $2.5 billion.
• SunTrust Banks Inc.( NYSE: STI): $2.2 billion.

The banks will have until June 8 to develop a plan to raise the required capital and until Nov. 9 to implement it. They may choose to raise the money in a variety of ways. They may sell assets, court private investment or convert the government’s existing preferred shares into common stock.

Citigroup has already announced plans to convert a portion of the government’s $45 billion stake into common stock, a move that will give the federal government a 36% stake in the company. Other regional banks – such as Fifth Third Bank or Regions Financial – could be forced to take similar actions, but are loath to do so, as most of the moves would be dilutive to existing shareholders.

Citigroup has agreed to sell Nikko Cordial Securities to Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group (OTC: SMFJY) for about $5.5 billion. The deal, which is to be completed by Oct. 1, is expected to boost the bank’s Tier-1 capital ratio by approximately 27 basis points.

Morgan Stanley plans to close its capital gap by selling assets or stock to private investors, a person briefed on the plan told The New York Times. And Wells Fargo said late yesterday that it plans to sell $6 billion in new common stock in an effort to raise required capital.

While Bank of America has said it doesn’t agree with the Fed’s conclusions, the bank yesterday outlined its strategy to accommodate the government’s demands. BofA is exploring the sale of such business units as its First Republic private-banking unit and asset manager Columbia Management, The Wall Street Journal reported.

The sale of those businesses could raise a combined $4 billion, David Hendler of CreditSights Inc. told The Journal. BofA could also get about $8 billion for its partial stake in China Construction Bank Corp.

Beyond that BofA would have the options of converting the government’s existing $45 billion investment, or $33 billion in private preferred shares, into common stock.

The Fed wants bank-holding companies to achieve a Tier 1 risk-based ratio of at least 6%, and a Tier 1 Common risk-based ratio of at least 4% by the end of 2010. The goal is to get banks to the point where they are stable enough that they can borrow from private investors without a Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. (FDIC) guarantee, people familiar with the matter told Bloomberg News.

“Going forward, we just need banks to be able to issue debt without the FDIC backing – that’s the next stage for these bank names in terms of evaluating their health,” Mark Bronzo, a money manager at Security Global Investors LLC, which oversees $21 billion in Irvington, N.Y., told Bloomberg.

If the banks fail to meet capital requirements, the government will step in to provide the necessary funds. However, it’s unlikely that any more taxpayer money will be needed, as about $110 billion of the original $700 billion in Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) funding remains.

Wall Street’s Reaction

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 102.43 points, or 1.2%, yesterday, with the Dow Jones U.S. Financial Services Index down 3.78%. However, Wall Street’s reaction to the tests won’t be fully realized until the market opens later today (Friday).

“I think this will be a confidence-instilling announcement,” Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair told a Senate panel Wednesday. “There will be additional needs for capital buffers for some institutions, but I think there will be mechanisms to do that within the next six months.”

Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner said in an interview with PBS television’s “The Charlie Rose Show” that all of the institutions tested already have “significant cushions” of capital and that Americans have every reason to be confident going forward.

“The results will be, on balance, reassuring,” Geithner said.

But some analysts are skeptical about what the bank stress tests actually achieved, or if their standards of evaluation were even valid in the first place. After all, the tests have occupied resources from both the federal government and the private sector for months, and have increased stock market volatility.

“The banks are healing themselves, and it could have been done a lot faster if government had gotten out of the way instead of parking the emergency equipment in the middle of the road,” Gary B. Townsend, a former banking regulator who now runs his own investment firm, told The New York Times.

Also, many bank employees, and even Elizabeth Warren, who chairs the Congressional Oversight Panel for TARP, have expressed concern that the tests weren’t stringent enough.

Last month, Warren gave rise to speculation that another stress test might be needed by the end of the year, after she called the adverse economic scenario employed by the Fed “disturbingly close” to current economic conditions.

In the Fed’s most pessimistic economic forecast, for example, the government projects the unemployment rate will climb to 10.3% in 2010. But unemployment already hit 8.5% in March and many economists are predicting that it rose to 8.9% in April. If that’s the case, it’s not hard to imagine the national jobless rate reaching double digits by the end of the year.

“The stress tests will make a terrific contribution if they are tough and transparent,” Warren said. “If they are not, they will be useless.”

Still, despite the test’s alleged failings, there is a hope that with more transparency and a greater buffer of equity, investor confidence will be restored.

“This is sending a message that the banks need more capital, but their losses are manageable and the system itself is solvent,” Kevin Fitzsimmons, an analyst at Sandler O’Neill told The Times. “Whether it sticks is something else.”

Source: Bank Stress Tests: The Results Are in; Now What?

Back in 2001, the Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) – eager to push its clients toward emerging markets investment – created the acronym “BRIC” to stand for Brazil, Russia, India and China, the four emerging markets the investment bank’s strategists believed would become a dominant part of the world economy in the years ahead.

Such was the case until the global financial crisis happened. Now, Russia is falling out of investor sunlight and into the pits of recession.

Russia’s Economic Development Minister Elvira Nabiullina projects a 2.2% gross domestic product (GDP) decline for 2009, according to EurasiaNet. But the current global financial crisis is making previous estimates look foolish and impossibly rosy (U.S. GDP was originally estimated to fall 3.2% for the fourth quarter. In reality, GDP plunged 6.2%).

The culprits: A falling ruble, plummeting oil prices, war with Georgia and a gas-export dispute with the Ukraine.

Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on its oil reserves, making the effects of falling oil prices easy to measure. But the silent killer of the Russian economy has yet to be full measured – the money spent in a thus-far vain attempt to prop up its falling ruble.

The ruble recently fell to a level not seen since 1998, a scary statistic because that was the year Russia experienced a nationwide banking crisis – and it was also a period during which world markets were being roiled by the Asian Financial Crisis, also known as the “Asian contagion.”

In an effort to cushion the ruble’s fall, Russia has spent $245 billion since August, as policymakers sold more than a quarter of the country’s gold and foreign-currency reserves. Russia’s reserves, the world’s third-largest, stood at $426.5 billion on Jan. 9, according to BNP Paribas SA.

That has some economists calling for a “free-float” – or a big devaluation – to avoid depleting all of the reserves.

The tactic, and the accompanying effect on investors, is nearly identical to that of 1998, when the ruble fell 71% against the dollar before finally stabilizing after the government defaulted on $40 billion of debt. Investors are fleeing Russia because the government is tapping its reserves to defend the ruble, further eroding investor confidence and undermining the currency.

Brazil, India and China are currently faring far better than Russia currently, but are still dealing with their own unique struggles. That has led analysts to question the viability of the BRIC acronym.

Milton Ezrati, a senior economist and market strategist at Lord Abbett & Co. LLC, recently published a report titled, “Broken BRIC,” in which he questions the notion of lumping those economies together – especially in view of their wealth of differences.

“We, at Lord Abbett, were always skeptical of BRIC,” Ezrati said in an interview with MarketWatch.com, noting that investors should diversify beyond emerging markets. “The whole concept behind the BRIC, that these four countries were leaders, is no longer the case today.”

Ezrati no doubt has his share of dissenters, who can quickly point out that while the stock markets of China, India and Brazil are taking their lumps, they are the only major economies in the world with positive GDP growth.

Effect on Local Elections

Looking at Russia’s recent local election results, the country’s decline into the financial red is having little effect on the popularity of United Russia, the party of former President and current Prime Minister Vladimir Putin.

Elections were held yesterday and preliminary results show United Russia racking up commanding leads in local elections around the country, The Associated Press reported. Of course, allegations of election violations abound.

But the bottom line is that those in power are keeping it. Doing so engraves their names next to the economy’s decline; but it also gives them a chance to take credit for recovery if their policies work.

Source: Russia’s Economic Demise Could Turn “BRIC” to “BIC”

• FedEx Corp. (FDX) mixed bad news with good in its latest quarterly report. After posting a profit for its second fiscal quarter, the package delivery giant also said it’s suspending pension contributions, freezing new hires, cutting its CEO’s pay by 20% in order to cut $800 million by the end of its fiscal 2010, Reuters reported.

• Wal-Mart Inc. (WMT) store representatives told Bloomberg that the world’s largest retailer would begin selling Apple Inc.’s (APPL) iPhones by the end of the year. The move is seen as positive for both companies, as it gives Wal-Mart a hot new item and Apple a gigantic new sales outlook.

• General Motors Corp. (GM) denied a report yesterday (Thursday) that the company reopened merger talks with Chrysler LLC. The report first appeared in The Wall Street Journal. “We have had no talks with them since we announced during our third-quarter earnings call that the talks had been suspended,” GM spokesman Tony Cervone said, Reuters reported.

• Credit card firm Discovery Financial Services (DFS) added itself to the list of companies applying to become a bank holding company, thus making it eligible for federal TARP money. The company also reported a $432 million profit in its fiscal fourth-quarter, up from a $56 million loss the previous year, MarketWatch reported.

• The Labor Department said yesterday (Thursday) that the number of filings for initial jobless benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 554,000 from an upwardly revised figure of 575,000 the previous week. Still, claims remain near the highest level since 1982.

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) has agreed to share its 29% in Sanyo Electric Co. Ltd. (OTC: SANYY) to Panasonic Corp. (ADR: PC) for at least $6.4 billion, Reuters reported. The purchase will make Panasonic Japan’s No. 2 electronics manufacturer after Hitachi Ltd with $120 billion in annual sales. Goldman had previously rejected two other offers from Panasonic.

• The U.S. economy will begin to rebound late next year or early in 2010, IMF Managing Director Dominique Strauss-Kahn told Spanish newspaper Expansion. He based this view on the likelihood that the housing market will soon bottom and demand will follow the recent wave of fiscal stimuli. Though he added: “We recognize, however that the possibility of a recovery is plagued with uncertainty.”

• Carnival Corp. (CCL), the world’s largest cruise operator, reported a 4% rise in fourth-quarter earnings yesterday (Thursday), but lowered its 2009 outlook as consumers will likely cancel or delay vacations for the next year. The company’s quarterly revenue rose 6% to $3.3 billion.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Friday, December 19th, 2008

• Profit at electronics retailer Best Buy Co. (BBY) fell 77% during the company’s fiscal third quarter ended Nov. 29. The company said it would offer buyout packages to nearly all corporate employees to save on costs as it trudges through a dismal holiday shopping season, the Associated Press reported.

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) reported a $2.12 billion, or $4.97 a share, loss for its fiscal fourth quarter, Bloomberg reported. “Our results for the fourth quarter reflect extraordinarily difficult operating conditions, including a sharp decline in values across virtually every asset class,” Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein said in the statement.

• New building permits and new housing starts hit a record low in November. Permits plummeted 15.6% to 616,000 units from 730,000 in October. Housing starts fell 18.9% to 625,000 from 771,000 in October, Reuters reported.

• Retail sales in Brazil rose 10.1% in October, exceeding economists’ forecasts and showing promise that consumers in the Latin American titan are holding up in the global economic slowdown. Sales may slow in November and December, however. “Sectors that are dependent on credit, such as vehicles, will suffer more in the following months,” Luiz Goes, partner of Gouvea de Souza consultancy firm, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

• Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s (BRK.A, BRK.B) HomeServices of America yesterday (Tuesday) purchased a Raleigh, N.C.-based York Simpson Underwood, a residential real estate brokerage with 250 agents. York Simpson, which closed more than $717 million in real estate transactions last year, will be merged with an existing HomeServices brokerage, Prudential Carolinas Realty, and is being renamed Prudential York Simpson Underwood Realty, The Associated Press reported.

• Light, sweet crude for January delivery fell 91 cents to settle at $43.60 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange yesterday (Tuesday), despite indications that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries is gearing up to cut production. Prices fell below $44 just after Saudi oil minister Ali Naimi said production would likely be cut by about 2 billion barrels per day.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Wednesday, December 17th, 2008

• China’s exports fell 2.2% and imports plummeted by 17.9% in November, pushing its trade surplus to a record $40.09 billion, Bloomberg reported. “The figures are horrifying,” Lu Zhengwei, chief economist at Industrial Bank Co. in Shanghai, said. “Plunging imports show that on top of faltering global demand, domestic demand is also shrinking as the economy cools.”

• Global mining leading Rio Tinto PLC (ADR: RTP) announced it would slash 14,000 jobs (or 13% of its workforce), sell more assets and halve its capital spending. “Drastic times call for drastic measures… They’ve definitely gone into survival mode, which is appropriate given the market circumstances,” Tim Schroeders, portfolio manager at Pengana Capital in Melbourne, told Reuters.

• Despite ascending unemployment numbers, Wells Fargo & Co. (WFC) Chief Executive John Stumpf said Wednesday he is seeing signs of a bottom in the U.S. housing market. “My suspicion is there is some more to go. But we’re starting to see some early signs that maybe we’ve reached the bottom in housing or close to it,” Stumpf said at Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s (GS) U.S. Financial Services Conference, Reuters said.

• Egypt’s Orascom Telecom Holding landed a contract to provide mobile phone services in North Korea, a company source told Bloomberg. The deal marks the first foreign telecommunications deal on the recluse Communist country’s turf.

• Office Depot Inc. (ODP) will close about 9% of its North American stores and cut 2,200 jobs over the next three months, The Associated Press reported yesterday (Wednesday). The plan to close 112 stores will reduce the chain’s base to 1,163. Office Depot will close 45 stores in the Central United States, 40 in the Northeast and Canada, 19 in the West and eight in the South.

• Solar cell maker JA Solar Holdings Co. (ADR: JASO) yesterday (Wednesday) cut its fourth-quarter revenue and production outlooks as a result of declining demand. The China-based company lowered its revenue forecast to $124 million, from an earlier estimate $191 million to $220 million. The company also cut its estimates for 2008 production output to between 250 and 260 megawatts from 310 megawatts.

Source: Global Investing Roundups Thursday, December 11th, 2008

Non-farm payroll employment fell by 240,000 in October, and the unemployment rate jumped to 6.5%, up from 6.1% the month before, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported in early November.

October’s drop in payroll employment followed declines of 127,000 in August and 284,000 in September, according to revised BLS reports. Employment has fallen by 1.2 million in the first 10 months of 2008, with more than half of that decrease occurring in August, September and October. In October, job losses continued in manufacturing, construction and several service-providing industries. Conversely, the healthcare and mining sectors saw their job ranks grow.

And it’s going to get much worse before it gets better, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) has predicted. Goldman Sachs says the U.S. unemployment rate will spike to 9.0% by the fourth quarter of 2009, as corporate profits plunge an estimated 25% – and that’s after an estimated decline in profits of about 10% this year, Goldman analysts say. The U.S. economy – as measured by gross domestic product (GDP) – will decline by 5.0% in the current quarter, followed by declines of 3.0% in the first quarter of 2009 and 1.0% in the second quarter, Goldman analysts predict.

Those numbers are worse than Goldman originally predicted, and create an outlook similar to Money Morning’sprojections, which called for a credit-crisis-nurtured economic downturn that could last as long as 12-18 months.

The NBER yesterday (Monday) formally announced that the U.S. economy peaked and entered into a recession in December 2007. The U.S. Commerce Department estimated that the U.S. economy, as measured by GDP, rose 0.9% in the first quarter. In the second quarter, GDP advanced an estimated 2.8%. For the third quarter, GDP declined an estimated 0.3%.

Also this week, the U.S. Federal Reserve’s “We have marked down our forecasts for US real GDP in response to continuing signs of falling domestic and foreign demand, labor market deterioration, renewed tightening in financial conditions, and an apparent impasse in fiscal policy pending the transfer of power to the Obama administration in late January. As a result, we expect the unemployment rate to reach 9% by the fourth quarter of 2009, profits to fall 25% for 2009 as a whole following an estimated 10% drop this year, and the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to use nontraditional policy tools more aggressively, as detailed below – Beige Book – due out tomorrow (Wednesday) – offers a look into activity within the various regions of the country.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: November Unemployment Statistics to Highlight Economic Reports This Week

American Express won the Fed’s approval unanimously and without the application’s standard 30-day waiting period because of “the unusual and exigent circumstances affecting the financial markets,” according to a Fed statement.

High unemployment and a severe drought of credit are plaguing the consumer market, causing them to spend less. Worse, it’s caused many to be unable to pay existing debts such as credit cards.

October was the first month in 15 years that credit card companies weren’t able to sell bonds backed by customer payments, Bloomberg reported. And this upgrade to commercial bank status allows American Express – the fourth-largest U.S. credit card company – access to government funds.
American Express becomes the third major institution to switch over to a commercial bank in as many months, joining Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (GS) and Morgan Stanley (MS).

In the past year, American Express has lost nearly half its market value as it posted four consecutive quarters of declining profit.

Mixed Analyst Reactions

Oppenheimer Holdings, Inc. (OPY) analyst Meredith Whitney said that the approval will give American Express a more stable mix of funding and allow it to cut borrowing costs.

“Whether institutions like it or not, the only prudent thing to do is assume a protracted worst-case funding scenario,” Whitney said in a note to investors, Reuters reported.

While she maintained her “perform” rating on American Express’ stock, she said that “concerns for American Express and other consumer lending-related stocks continue to be worse-than-expected credit losses.”

Scott Valentin of Friedman, Billings, Ramsey Group, Inc. (FBR) wasn’t as generous, the Associated Press reported. While maintaining his “underperform” rating and $22 target price for American Express stock, Valentin said the company’s earnings and model “are under severe stress in the current environment.”

Source:American Express Now a Commercial Bank

• Microsoft Corp.’s (MSFT) quarterly profit rose 2% from a year ago, the company said yesterday (Thursday) in a statement. The world’s largest software maker earned $4.37 billion, or 48 cents per share, in the quarter ended Sept. 30. Sales rose 9% to $15.1 billion.

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) is cutting 3,200 jobs, or 10% of its work force, as the firm struggles with the credit crisis and transitions into a holding company. The cuts add to more than 130,000 jobs eliminated in the financial industry since mid-2007, topping the 83,000 lost after the Internet bubble burst in 2001, Bloomberg reported.

• The Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) yesterday (Thursday) reported a 6% rise in third-quarter profit. The company reported earnings of $428 million, or 46 cents per share, up from $403 million, or 42 cents per share, a year ago. Sales rose 13% to $15.4 billion.

• Sony Corp. (ADR: SNE), the Japanese consumer electronics giant, announced (Thursday) that profits would be markedly weaker for fiscal year 2008. Sony predicted earnings of $1.5 billion (150 billion yen), down from an earlier July forecast of $2.4 billion (240 billion yen), The Washington Post reported.

• An auction to set the value of Washington Mutual Inc. (OTC: WAMUQ) debt was held yesterday (Thursday). Markit and Creditex, auction administrators, set the debt cost of failed bank Washington Mutual at 57 cents on the dollar. Sellers of credit default swap protection must pay 43 cents to counterparties, MarketWatch reported.

• Crude oil gained $1.09, or 1.6%, to settle at $67.84 yesterday (Thursday) in anticipation of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) meeting today (Friday). “If OPEC makes a cut of 1 to 2 million barrels tomorrow, prices should firm up and move higher in the short term,” Gene McGillian, an analyst at Tradition Energy in Stamford, Conn., told Bloomberg News. “Unless there is something huge announced, the market will eventually start moving lower again because of the weak economy.”

Source: Global Investing Roundups Friday, October 24th, 2008

Approximately 3,000 tourists a day from 13 Chinese providences will be permitted into Taiwan, beginning July 18. There have been no regular flights from China to Taiwan since 1949, when just a few years after the end of World War II, the armies of Chinese revolutionary leader Mao Zedong moved into Shanghai and the existing Chinese government under Chiang Kai-shek decamped to Taiwan.

Under Zedong, China pursued hardline Communism for the next 30 years, with limited liberalization thereafter. Taiwan, on the other hand, opted for a free-market economy, and the country has been a haven of low-tax capitalism ever since. Having concluded their first meeting in nearly a decade, tensions are beginning to thaw.

“The significance is that it reflects a certain political reality,” Joseph Cheng, a politics professor at City University of Hong Kong said in an interview with Bloomberg News. “China has to show goodwill to the Taiwan people so as to prevent them from moving down the road to independence. China has come to appreciate the basic parameters in Taiwan – the improvement of economic ties and let’s forget reunification for the time being.”

Direct flights across the Strait of Taiwan could add about 60 to 80 basis points to Taiwan’s economic growth Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) analyst Enoch Fung said in a report Friday.

Goldman currently forecasts Taiwan’s gross domestic product growth will slow from 5.7% in 2007 to 4.5% in 2008.

Trade between China and Taiwan totaled 43.9 billion in the first four months of the year – a 22% improvement from 2007, Bloomberg reported. At the end of April, cumulative investments from Taiwan in China reached $46.4 billion.

[Editor’s Note: All this growth that China is experiencing from new business and tourism does carry a price-tag, including a major spike in pollution. Just cleaning up the country’s drinking water will force the government to shell out $80 billion between now and 2010. Investors who know about these opportunities stand to profit in a big way. And Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald - a longtime expert on Asian investing - can uncover those profit plays with his specialized investing service. Indeed, he just returned from an investment trip he headed to China, Hong Kong and Japan. To find out more, please click here.]

Source:  New Travel Arrangement with China Could Lead to Stronger Economic Growth in Taiwan

Retail gas hit its 22nd consecutive daily high yesterday (Thursday), according to AAA’s Daily Fuel Gauge Report.

The average nationwide cost for a gallon of regular unleaded was $3.952, while the average cost for a gallon of diesel was $4.787.

According to the AAA survey, gas prices have increased nearly 10% from a month ago and are up almost 24% from one year ago, CNNMoney.com reported.

Connecticut has the highest average by state at $4.223 for a gallon of regular, while Missouri has the lowest at $3.761.

The average cost of gas has crossed the $4 threshold in 11 states and Washington, D.C.

The cost of gas has climbed steadily higher, following in the wake of soaring oil prices. Oil reached a record high of just above $135 per barrel on May 22, but since then the price has dropped.

Crude oil for July delivery fell $4.31, or 3.3%, to $126.72 a barrel at the 2:30 p.m. close of floor trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, according to Bloomberg data, as the high cost of gas is finally acting to curb consumer demand.

“There’s a lot of demand destruction taking place,” Nauman Barakat, senior vice president of global energy futures at Macquarie Futures USA Inc. in New York, told Bloomberg News. “We are probably headed for $120 in the near term.”

But the slight reprieve we’re currently experiencing is likely to reverse itself just as quickly as we head into the summer driving season and speculators continue to push up the price of “black gold.”

Both Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) recently released reports that have oil soaring over $200 a barrel within the next two years.
Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald – one of the first investment gurus to predict triple-digit oil prices – has boosted his own target, suggesting that oil could go as high as $225 a barrel.

“The math is really simple here,” Fitz-Gerald said in a recent e-mail interview from China. “We are burning through supplies at a rate that’s four times to five times faster than we’re discovering new reserves. Throw in a few [surprises]… perhaps a terrorist event… and add in the accelerating use of oil and gasoline in Third World countries, and we have the recipe for far higher prices.”

Source: Gas Prices Roar to a New Record for the 22nd Straight Day