Rogers and Soros are snapping up farmland right now. These two old hands are betting that demand for food will soar, pushing up the price of arable land. This from MoneyNews.com:

Falling commodity prices aren’t bringing prices for farmland down with them. Even as the price of grain goes down, the cost of the land it’s grown on keeps going up, leading George Soros and other guru investors to bet big on agricultural land.

The fundamentals are easy to understand: Over the next 40 years the population of the world is projected to grow from 6 billion to 9 billion, hugely increasing the strain on arable farmland worldwide.

The spiking grain prices that caused food shortages and rioting in dozens of countries in spring of 2008 fell some 50 percent by December. Yet even after the correction, grain prices remain above their 20-year average, and food stocks around the world are still near 40-year lows.

“Land is scarce and will become scarcer as the world has to double food output to satisfy increased demand by 2050,” Joachim von Braun, director general at the International Food Policy Research Institute, told Fortune Magazine.

“With limited land and water resources, this will automatically lead to increased valuations of productive land. And it goes hand in hand with water. Water scarcity will probably increase even more than land.”

“I’m convinced that farmland is going to be one of the best investments of our time,” says commodities guru Jim Rogers.

Long-suffering readers will know that we’re bullish on the PowerShares DB Agriculture Fund (NYSE:DBA). But there are a number of other ways to invest in the ag sector.

These include agricultural chemical companies such as PotashCorp (NYSE: POT) , Mosaic (NYSE: MOS) , Agrium (NYSE: AGU) and Terra Industries (NYSE: TRA). Also worth considering is farm machinery outfit Deere (NYSE: DE) and farm products company Archer-Daniels-Midland (NYSE: ADM).

• Live Nation Inc. (LYV), the world’s largest concert promoter, said it is buying Ticketmaster Entertainment Inc. (TKTM), the world’s largest ticketing company, for $2.5 billion including debt, Reuters reported. The merger will create a music powerhouse, already unpopular with fans and likely to receive intense scrutiny from government antitrust investigators.

• China inflation continued slowing in January, rising 1%, the slowest pace in nearly seven years. “Inflation could have been close to zero or worse if not for the Chinese New Year, because vegetable prices and grain prices went up,” Wang Tao, China economist at UBS AG in Beijing, told Bloomberg.

• MillerCoors, the U.S.-targeting joint venture between Molson Coors Brewing Co. (TAP) and SABMiller plc (ADR:SBMRY), said fourth-quarter profit slid 40%. The fall is mainly due to the costs to integrate the brands and impairment charges to its Sparks brand, the Associated Press reported.

• Switzerland’s largest bank, UBS AG (UBS), said it plans to cut another 2,000 jobs, this time at its security unit. Chief Executive Officer Marcel Rohner said the bank will return to profit in 2009, aided by help from the Swiss government to split off toxic assets, Bloomberg reported.

• Prices of call options to buy gold have almost doubled since Jan 15, as financial turmoil boosts demand for the precious metal, Bloomberg reported. Options contracts that allow holders to buy 100 ounces of gold for $1,000 each by April  traded as high as $17.50 yesterday on the New York Mercantile Exchange, as compared with $7.70 on Jan. 15. In that same period, options contracts that allow traders to sell gold at $800 by April plunged 82 percent.
• Oil prices fell below $39 a barrel on Tuesday after the U.S. Energy Information Administration revised downward its 2009 global oil demand forecast by 400,000 barrels per day predicting demand will fall by 1.17 million bpd from 2008, Reuters reported. The agency said it revised its demand forecasts on concerns the U.S. stimulus plan unveiled by the Obama administration will not stem the recession.  U.S. crude fell 63 cents to $38.93 a barrel. London Brent traded down 1 cent to $46.01 a barrel.
• Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (WMT) is cutting 700 to 800 jobs at its home office in Arkansas, as the world’s largest retailer looks to realign its corporate structure and reduce costs, Reuters reported. The discount retailer, which has roughly 14,000 employees at its headquarters, is eliminating jobs in merchandising, real estate and marketing in its Wal-Mart U.S. division, while cutting merchandising positions at its Sam’s Club division.
• Cisco Systems Inc. (CSCO) the giant network equipment maker, launched a surprisingly large $4 billion debt sale on Monday, raising speculation that was poised to make an acquisition, Reuters reported.  The offering came on the same day Cisco said it would offer senior notes to help pay back $500 million of debt due this month. The company said it would also use the proceeds of the offering to bolster its domestic cash position of $3 billion to $4 billion.

Source: Global Investment News Briefs Wednesday, February 11th, 2009

This from Rude Awakening:

Welcome to “The Great Suppression.” The government keeps trying everything it can to suppress the unfolding economic bust. Whether the Great Suppression succeeds or not is beside the point. What concerns us is that its actions will have consequences in the marketplace. And as investors and speculators, we have to think about what those might be.

It’s sometimes uncanny how history repeats itself. Historian Frederick Lewis Allen writes about the New Deal of the 1930s in his book The Big Change: “It rewrote a good many of the rules of the economic game as played in America.” The steps the government took resemble what’s happening now an awful lot.

“The New Deal,” Allen continues, “continued to prop up ailing corporations through Hoover’s RFC; made arrangements to prevent near-bankrupt firms from going broke; aided farm owners and homeowners in meeting their mortgage payments; underwrote the financing of new housing enterprises; insured bank deposits…” And on and on.

It also went into the business of stimulating the economy directly by “building dams, bridges, parkways and playgrounds on a grand scale.” If FDR walked the Earth again, Obama’s stimulus would look familiar.

Over the weekend, we got more details of Obama’s stimulus plan, which comes with a price tag of at least $820 billion (and climbing). Some of the projects of interest to us include:

• Renovate 10,000 schools
• Build more than 3,000 miles of new or modernized transmission lines and install 40 million “smart meters” in homes
• Weatherize at least 2 million homes and 75% of office buildings
• Launch 1,300 wastewater projects, 380 drinking water projects and 1,000 rural water and sewer system projects
• Repair and modernize thousands of miles of roadways.

“Shovel ready” is the hot new phrase in Washington these days. It means a project is all set to go as soon as the money arrives. The list of projects for Obama’s plan are shovel ready — so they say. As soon as Congress approves the deal, the money goes right to work, like a needle sticking into a vein.

Our infrastructure stocks have been among our best performers over the past year.

Insituform Technologies (Nasdaq:INSU), for instance, continues to announce new contract wins. (See Rude Awakening from July 23, 2007 – Pipe Down!) The company repairs water and sewer pipes with a trenchless technology that does not require you to dig up the pipes. We’re up about 37% on that, a welcome spot of green in what has otherwise been a tough row.

Ameron Intl. (NYSE:AMN) is another infrastructure play. It has a water pipe business, which ought to benefit from the slew of water projects. Scott Black, of Barron’s Roundtable, had Ameron as one of his stock picks for the year. “In Arizona, Nevada and California, a lot of shovel-ready water projects are waiting for a go-ahead,” Black said.

“Ameron makes wind towers, too, and infrastructure products. It owns 50% of Tamco, which makes steel rebar for highways, bridges and overpasses.”

He also pointed out Ameron’s good backlog. “For each $100 million incremental increase in revenue under an infrastructure bill, based on 22% margins, they’d make $15.3 million after taxes,” he says. “Ameron… is cheap based on both tangible book value and expected earnings. It’s an interesting way to play a pickup in infrastructure in California and the West.”

Others in our portfolio that may see some increase in business thanks to the swell of money from Obama’s bill include Gorman-Rupp (AMEX:GRC). I updated this one in your last issue. GRC makes a variety of pumps. It has exposure to a number of markets affected by the stimulus plan, including municipal water and wastewater systems.

I like Gorman-Rupp for a lot of reasons, as I outlined in the issue. Chief among them is a rock-solid balance sheet — excess cash and no debt — and a good long-term track record. While not stone-cold cheap at 16 times earnings, it’s not a bad price to pay for an unlevered business earning a steady (and resilient) 16% return on capital with good growth opportunities in front of it.

Viterra (TSE:VT), as I mentioned in this column last week (”Investing in Food“), is another very compelling investment. The company, which operates in various aspects of the Canadian grain handling and agribusiness, posted very impressive numbers in the fourth quarter.

In a year which most would rather forget, Viterra’s business shined. For the year, it booked $1.31 in earnings, up 56% from a year ago, thanks to closing the (brilliant) acquisition of Agricore. At today’s price of $9.25, Viterra trades for only 7 times earnings. You’re not going to find many companies putting up those numbers available at 7 times earnings — and Viterra is financially strong.

Viterra generated $400 million in free cash flow in 2008. That on a market cap of just over $2 billion, for a 20% free cash flow yield. There is a lot of room for error when you buy stocks at those kinds of valuations. And the outlook here is still bright if you believe agriculture markets will be strong, as I do.

In today’s Financial Times, there was a story on a new report from the London-based think tank Chatham House. As the FT reports: “The world faces ‘the real risk of a food crunch’ if government does not take immediate action to address the agricultural impact of climate change and water scarcity… ‘Food prices are poised to rise again.’”

This is something I’ve been writing about here and in C&C. I think we’re looking at a strong back half of the year for grain prices as global grain stocks fall. That will be good for a lot of our ag-related names, including Viterra, but also for our irrigation play Lindsay Corp. (NYSE:LNN). (See Rude Awakening from July 4, 2007, “The Most Dangerous Religion.”) The latter is another nice pickup here, with no net debt and trading for less than 10 times earnings.

Irrigation and fertilizers play a big role in boosting yields and producing more food. Viterra, a sort of toll road on grain traffic, also benefits. For now, these stocks look cheap. But the market won’t be able to ignore the numbers as we roll through 2009. Good results and rising grain prices will attract attention.

Already, wheat, corn and soybeans are up 15%, 17% and 22%, respectively, since December. As the FT notes: “In contrast with other raw materials such as oil or aluminum, which have plunged back to the levels of 2002-2005, agricultural commodities are trading higher than they were 12-18 months ago.”

As I write, the S&P 500 is down about 8% in the month of January. Barring a rally, we’re on pace for the worst January on record for the S&P 500 since 1970, when the S&P fell 7.7%. I pass this onto you so you appreciate the historic nature of this market we are in. It’s been difficult to show any gains investing on the long side.

But when you invest in good names with valuable assets and quality businesses, their stock prices will – eventually – reflect the good things going on under the hood.

Source: The Great Suppression

China’s higher food costs would result from a regulatory change, while Brazil’s food supply is feeling the pinch of tighter credit. In both cases, grain supplies will be affected.

In China, the government scrapped its 11-month interim price control measures on grain and some food products starting from this month after inflation began to drop.

Inflation had taken its toll on Chinese consumers, with food the biggest contributor to lower consumer spending.

For example, in January of this year food prices in China bolted a staggering 18.2% over the previous year as consumer prices rose 7.1%. By April, food prices were up 22.1% over the same period in 2007 as inflation hit 8.5%. By November, China’s pricing controls had curbed inflation to 4% as food prices rose 8.5% percent in October – down dramatically from the beginning of the year.

Now that market forces are back in play, it’s expected that grain prices in particular will begin to rise again. With the government controls lifted, farmers and traders can resume to set market-driven prices without permission from the government.

In Brazil, farmers are struggling to keep up with demand in the face of tighter credit.

A global cash shortage inflames a tough market for Brazilian food producers, already reeling from slumping crop prices and higher costs of farming supplies such as fertilizer.

Soy beans is a major cash crop for Brazil and it looks like production will drop this year — indicating that soy prices could rise on the open markets. Hurting for cash, Brazilian farmers are forced to cut the size of their crops under these hostile conditions.

As grain prices soared during the first half of 2008, Brazilian farmers accrued large debts in anticipation of ongoing increases. But now that the prices of grain and other commodities are dropping, Brazilian farmers are saddled with huge debts that further inhibit their borrowing power.

The problems are expected to contribute to a 2% drop in Brazilian soybean production for the 2008-2009 crop year, according to the U.S. Agriculture Department.

Meanwhile, the world’s population continued to grow, from 4.4 billion in 1980 to 6.7 billion in 2007. The United Nations is projecting an additional 40% increase by 2050, when the population is expected to reach 9.2 billion.

As China and Brazil contribute to higher food prices, this could be a good time for investors to enter the beginning of a longer term cycle.

The first comes from Karl N. and he says…

Charles, First you have to buy into the assumption that fuel prices are realistic and will continue to increase! In reality, there is no reason for them to be where they are.

Second, Ethanol requires no more energy to produce than gasoline. Producers must pump, refine, and transport gasoline. Global hunger increased before ethanol because the American farmers cannot cost effectively operate. Fertilizer, fuel, seed, transport costs, living expenses, land and machinery have all increased substantially since the 1960’s without a significant increase in grain prices. The market will have more grain with the increased production of Ethanol than without it.

Please do not buy into propaganda that Ethanol is not efficient to produce, will contribute to world hunger or will drive food prices up (a loaf of bread uses 4-5 cents of wheat in it).
The truth is that unless grain prices increase more farmers will be forced to quit and food supplies will decrease.

I have to say Karl, that fuel prices are realistic even at today’s price. Granted, a lot of speculation has helped take prices higher. But the truth is that according to the Energy Information Administration, the world’s oil production peaked in 2005.

Sure, more oil is being found. But it’s not being found in easy-to-reach places. It’s all offshore, sands, and shale. Production from these areas should come online in time to replace lost production from older wells. The net result? Flat to slightly higher production in the next five to ten years.

Even with US consumption falling, consumption in China, Brazil and India is skyrocketing. The truth is, if these countries keep buying more and more, then oil isn’t too expensive.

Second, you have to admit that corn-based ethanol isn’t the most efficient way to make energy, right? The US Department of Energy says that corn-based ethanol produces a whopping (note the sarcasm) 26 percent more energy than required for production.

That’s god-awful.

Cellulosic ethanol, on the other hand, could produce up to 80 percent more energy than is required to produce it. That’s much better. But mass-scale production is also far off. (There are a few companies setting up pilot plants. But that’s all)

Now, I agree that global hunger isn’t all ethanol’s fault. I’d place the blame on the emerging economies like Brazil, Russia, India and China. But you have to admit, using farmland for fuel means there’s less farmland available for food. And if there’s less food being made, prices move higher.

In addition, corn-based ethanol was a big reason why corn jumped well over 100% after President Bush first announced the ethanol initiative. The effect is obvious – the ethanol hype is helping prices move higher. And this has been a boon to farmers.

Better yet, farmers are poised to make even more money in the years to come, mainly because of growing global demand for food.

I also received an e-mail from Sam L. that said…

As a seasoned investor I wouldn’t put one penny in green stocks, not now or for the near future. It is all hype and no action.

All hype and no action, Sam? How about geothermal producers that are taking off? Or solar producers which are making profits? Wind producers are doing well, and many high-tech battery manufacturers are on the cusp of inking huge, multi-million dollar revenue generating deals.

If you think investing in clean energy is a bad idea, just take a look at the Market Vectors Global Alternative Energy Fund (GEX) and you’ll see that the sector’s been clearly moving higher. And the PowerShares Global Clean Energy Portfolio (PBD) has been doing the same.

It seems to me that investing in green stocks is a great thing to do. What you want to do is avoid the companies that have no profits… the ones that are using very experimental technologies that haven’t been proven yet. These companies may do well in the future, but you take a huge risk by putting your money on them now.

MarketWatch reports that corn stocks are set to suffer because US farmers are cutting back corn acreage this spring to grow more soybeans.

Corn futures for July delivery today closed down 1 cent at $6.2925 a bushel. The contract had ended Thursday’s session at $6.3025 a bushel, an all-time high.

Meanwhile, the price of hogs has barely inched its way higher in the last two years — it’s risen by a measly 17% since the beginning of 2006. When you adjust for inflation, hogs are only up 9.9%. So it’s not difficult to see how spiraling corn prices will play havoc with livestock prices — particular hogs and cattle.

“The prices of all commodities – and corn in particular – have soared, but hogs remain as cheap as ever,” says Ian Davis in The Growth Stock wire.

“Hogs, like most commodities, went nowhere for 30 years. In 1977, hogs sold for about 55.5 cents per pound. Today hogs sell for only about 79 cents per pound. That’s a rise of 42% in 31 years, or an annualized return of 1.1%… well below the inflation rate.

“But now, the brutal combination of pricey corn, increased energy costs (for processing and shipping), and cheap hogs is wreaking havoc on hog farmers worldwide.

“This trend cannot continue. Hog farmers are not running charities. When the input costs for hog producers soar, the price of hogs must also rise. By buying hogs, we are piggybacking (excuse the pun) on the uptrend in agriculture and crude oil.”

Read on here to find out what livestock ETF Ian recommends to his readers to profit from corn’s upswing.

Tom Dyson also thinkswe’re approaching a major bull move in hogs and cattle.

“When the gold price rises jewelry gets more expensive,” says Tom in DailyWealth. “It’s the same way with farm animals. When the corn price rises, livestock must get more expensive. Corn has doubled in the past 18 months, but livestock prices are still in the same range they were six years ago. They will catch up with corn.

“Here’s how you play it: Buy a livestock ETF. Two trade in London under the symbols CATL.L and HOGS.L. They track the Dow Jones AIG sub-indexes for live cattle and hogs.

The freezer belongs to Wells’ Dairy. Wells’ Dairy is America’s largest private producer of ice cream. It owns the Blue Bunny brand, but it also produces ice cream for Haagen-Dazs, Weight Watchers, and Walt Disney.

No other town in the world produces as much ice cream as they produce in Le Mars. Le Mars is the ice cream capital of the world.

Last week, I went to Iowa to research agriculture. While I was there, I passed through Le Mars and saw the Wells’ dairy plant. One of the locals I talked to knows someone who works in the freezer. He says the ice cream freezer is full of frozen pork. I asked the local why. “The Wells brothers must be speculating on a rise in pork prices,” he answered.

The Wells are making a smart move. I think we’re approaching a major bull move in hogs and cattle (although there is probably a little more liquidation to come first).

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You see, livestock farmers go broke when grain prices are high and meat prices are low. That’s the way it is right now. Take a look at this chart my colleague Ian Davis put together…

Two large hog farming concerns went bankrupt last week in Le Mars. Eric, a hog farmer I met, says hog producers are losing $40 on every pig they raise. I heard stories of farmers killing their cows and pigs at birth… They use females for breeding. They use the males for meat. Right now, it’s cheaper to kill the males than it is to fatten them up and sell them as meat.

Smithfield Foods, the largest hog producer in the nation, is cutting its herd. Earlier this year, Smithfield announced it would reduce its output of hogs by 800,000 to 1 million heads.

Eric said he knew trouble was coming and sold his hogs last year. Now he uses his hog farm as a “hog hotel.” He receives rent for taking care of another person’s hogs, but takes no risk (except the credit risk of his customer). He has an option to buy a piece of these hogs later in the year if he wishes. He says he’ll wait about six months to buy hogs… when the herd reductions start to bite.

When the gold price rises, jewelry gets more expensive. It’s the same way with farm animals. When the corn price rises, livestock must get more expensive. Corn has doubled in the past 18 months, but livestock prices are still in the same range they were six years ago. They will catch up with corn.

Here’s how you play it: Buy a livestock ETF. Two trade in London under the symbols CATL.L and HOGS.L. They track the Dow Jones AIG sub-indexes for live cattle and hogs.

Good investing,

Tom

Source: Largest Freezer in the World

AP reports that grain prices ended mixed last week on the Chicago Board of Trade. However, livestock prices rose, with beef and pork futures climbing on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange — a strong indicator that a livestock ETF may be a great way to cash in on the ongoing surge in food prices.

“Two years ago,” explains quant expert Ian Davis in The Growth Stock Wire, “making money was simple…You just grabbed a newspaper, closed your eyes, and randomly pointed to a commodity… any commodity.

“But a few commodities are being left behind…

“The price of hogs has barely inched its way higher in the last two years. In fact, it’s risen by a measly 17% since the beginning of 2006. When you adjust for inflation, hogs are only up 9.9%.

“But now, the brutal combination of pricey corn, increased energy costs (for processing and shipping), and cheap hogs is wreaking havoc on hog farmers worldwide.

“This trend cannot continue. Hog farmers are not running charities. When the input costs for hog producers soar, the price of hogs must also rise. By buying hogs, we are piggybacking (excuse the pun) on the uptrend in agriculture and crude oil.

Read on to find out what livestock ETF Ian recommends to profit from this uptrend.

Gary lives in one of Iowa’s most productive farming counties. He helps local farmers sell their harvest using the futures and options markets in Chicago. He also makes million-dollar speculations of his own.

Gary really knows the “ag” markets. He used to be the head stock buyer in a cattle yard, he’s traded ag commodities every day for the past 40 years, and he spends all day talking with farmers.

The last time I met Gary – in November 2006 – he told me this:

“Corn is going to $5 a bushel, up from its current price of $3.33. Soybeans are going to $9, from their current $6.45. And Iowa farmland is a bargain at $5,000 an acre.”

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Today, corn is $6 a bushel, soybeans are $13, and prime Iowa farmland is $10,000 an acre.

Back then, it was obvious grain prices had to rise. They were too cheap, and with the ethanol boom in full swing, it was plain to see corn and soybean prices would rise. Now it’s not so clear…

Gary says a bad crop could send corn to $10. But that’s not likely. The farmers are planting their fields right now, and Gary thinks there’s going to be a big crop this year. That could push grain prices down.

Gary wouldn’t predict a fall or a rise in the grain markets. He can’t know the future. But he did tell me he had sold all the grain production from his own farm, locking in corn prices at $5.80 and soybean prices at $12.80.

While it isn’t clear what’s going to happen to the grains… Gary said hog and cattle prices have to rise. Here’s why:

A knife is made out of steel. The knifemaker simply turns a raw material into a more expensive “value added” product. The hog and cattle farmer does the same thing. Corn is the raw material. Hogs and cows are a value-added corn product. Think of livestock as corn bins with four legs.

When steel prices rise, the knifemaker has to raise his knife prices or he’ll go out of business. Farmers haven’t been able to raise hog and cattle prices. Years of cheap corn have built up large inventories of meat.

Now the hog and cattle farmers are going out of business. Soon there’s going to be a shortage and prices will rise. “There’s going to be drastically higher meat prices when all this washes out,” Gary said.

To invest directly in hog and cattle prices, you have three choices: You could make friends with a farmer and ask him to buy livestock for you. You could open a futures trading account and buy live hog or feeder cattle futures. (Prices are volatile. Make sure you use plenty of margin and retain a broker who knows the agriculture markets well.)

Finally, you can buy a publicly traded meatpacker like Tyson, Hormel, or Smithfield. But be careful… other “corporate” variables may influence the prices of these stocks and ruin the trade, even if livestock prices rise.

Good investing,

Tom Dyson

There was a food crisis too. In 1972, grain prices doubled and remained high until 1975. And Henry Kissinger attended a hastily arranged World Food Conference in 1974 to tackle it. He emerged from it asserting boldly no child would go to bed hungry within a decade.

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Then in ‘73 the oil crisis broke. Arab OPEC members were outraged at the West’s support for Israel in the Yom Kippur war against Egypt and Syria. It stopped shipments of oil to the US and Western Europe. At the same time all of OPEC decided to up its prices following earlier failed negotiations with the “seven sisters” – the seven biggest Western oil companies at the time.The impact of this action was a dagger to the heart of the oil-dependent industrialised world.

The price of crude went up fourfold (to $12!) and sent Britain’s already troubled economy into a tailspin. Growth stalled and inflation as measured by the old-style Retail Prices Index rose from 5% at the start of the decade to a high of almost 27% by August 1975. From a low of 5% in 1971, interest rates soon rose into double digits and hit 15% by 1976.

Spot any pattern here? History may not exactly repeat itself, but some say it has a tendency to rhyme. Today oil’s high, food prices have been shooting up and workers are industrial action is once again making the news.

Following a one day teacher’s strike yesterday, we find oil workers at the Grangemouth oil refinery in Scotland are going on a two day strike starting on Sunday. The dispute is not about pay so much as pensions. The Wall Street Journal reports:

“ Britain’s Labour government faces the biggest wave of industrial action since it came to power 11 years ago.”

Tony Blair may regret being forced out as Prime Minister, but he can have few complaints about the timing.

Why is some obscure refinery in Scotland making the news anyway? Well it’s far from obscure to those in the oil business. It is the receiving end of the major artery in the North Sea oil pipeline network. An artery that stretches from Grangemouth, south of Edinburgh, at one end to the Forties oil field some 235 miles away out in the North Sea at the other.

The pipeline transports the accumulated crude from around 70 oil fields in the North Sea, amounting to over 40% of the UK’s entire crude production (1.6m barrels/day). So it matters. It means BP may have to close the pipe, with the potential cost estimated at £50m a day. And the strike may only be for two days but it will take a week to boot up the refinery again afterwards. So twenty-four hour news is busy telling us all about it on the one hand, and telling us not to panic and flock to the nearest petrol station on the other.

So here we are after more than three decades, oil prices are high, food prices are going up and now, strikes are back. In the ‘70s the food/fuel double whammy led to stagflation – stalled growth with inflation. And this could be where we’re heading now. Deflation in the housing market forces consumers to tighten their belts and their resultant lower spending crimps growth.

The latest figure for annualised UK growth is 2.5% having hit economists’ central expectation in the first quarter at 0.4%. Its lowest since 2005 but forecast to go a good deal lower yet. Meantime those food and fuel prices keep upping the inflation gauge. CPI is 2.5% and will likely go over 3% by summer. As Bill has repeatedly said this is where the forces of asset deflation meet those of commodity “cost-push” inflation.

And on the subject of commodity inflation, this is a growing bubble that’s not getting a whole lot of attention while everyone’s busy rubbernecking the spectacular car smash that is the credit crunch. Inflation and Chinese demand make the bull case strong, but one day it too will go pop. One investment banker tells the FT his biggest worry right now is not the credit crunch; it’s the counter party risk attaching to commodity trading.

The FT notes that the Goldman Sachs Commodity index has now risen 238% in the past three years, and the mood amongst investors is that commodities can only go up. Some of the younger traders have never known oil below $50/barrel and some commodity trading firms are pretty thinly capitalised. Someday soon the commodities bust will hit the headlines too.

Meanwhile over in Japan, high food and fuel prices look to have finally called time on a decade of deflation. Japanese bonds got crushed following a headline core CPI rate that “leapt” to 1.2% for the year – its fastest pace in a decade.

Regards,

Rob Mackrill
The Daily Reckoning

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