The EIA report says that increases in fuel-efficiency standards, use of renewable fuels and advances in technology will translate into less dependence on imported oil. At the same time, the reports projects that hybrid vehicles will comprise 38% of total sales by 2030 – a hefty share if any investor is willing to wait 21 years for that kind of growth.

While some form of battery-powered vehicle will emerge in the coming decades, the U.S. market will also see a diversification in fuel consumption flex-fuel, hybrid, and diesel vehicles, according to the report.

While this growing adoption of new fuels is bound to impact the sales of hybrid and electric vehicles, Detroit is ramping up production of small fuel-sipping cars that could meet or exceed the mileage of any kind of car with a battery.

It’s going to be a zero-sum game when it comes to oil imports versus gasoline consumption. The EIA reports that overall liquid fuel demand will increase by 1 million barrels per day between 2007 and 2030, during which we’ll see a dramatic increase in miles per gallon among different types of fuels.

During this historic transition, hybrid vehicle sales will rise from 2% in 2007 to 38% in 2030 (sales are tracking at around 2.4% for 2008), with full and mild hybrid systems accounting for most of that. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) are expected to grow to 90,000 vehicles annually by 2014, supported by recently enacted tax credits. By 2030, PHEVs account for 2% of new light vehicle sales.

These numbers clearly show that hybrids will be the green vehicle of choice over PHEVs — or will they?

Ford CEO Alan Mulally said earlier this month that it will stay the course of bringing small, fuel-sipping cars to the marketplace.

Mulallay believes is betting that fuel prices will stay relatively high, and that consumers will continue to adopt small cars. This is certainly true, but the questions looms if Americans are willing to pay more for a hybrid than a cheap, high-mileage gas car.

These sub-compacts and microcars produce profit margins of $2,500 to $3,500 compared with $8,000 or more in profit for SUVs and pick-up trucks. So while Ford will manufacture and import these tiny cars, the other question that needs to be asked is where Ford will put its marketing dollars? Into microcars or SUVs?

The other consideration is safety. It’s hard to believe that SUV-driving soccer moms will be real eager to shuttle around their kids in something like a Chevy Aveo.

Bottom line is that hybrids could be the vehicles of the future — 21 years from now. Are you willing to wait that long?

As of 2007, when gas prices were on the rise, the price premium for a hybrid (a gas-electric vehicle) was about $5,000 versus a conventional gas-burning vehicle. Even at those higher gas prices, the break even for a hybrid compared with gas was six to 10 years. Today, with gas down 2005-2006 levels, we can only estimate that the break even for a hybrid would be extended to 10-15 years.

These numbers don’t compute for a country in the throes of recession. Since the start of the recession in December 2007, as recently announced by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the number of unemployed people surged by 2.7 million, and the unemployment rate rose by 1.7 percentage points.

With people out of work, the argument that higher prices at the pump would translate into more sales of hybrid and electric cars is on the verge of crumbling. We can see it today. Gas prices at their lowest in years, but no one is spending money on anything — simply because they don’t have it. And it will likely take consumers years to get back on their feet.

The brilliant Dr. Chu, director of the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, has flogged the notion that it takes a combination of regulation and higher prices to rein in energy consumption. He advocates that the U.S. tax gas to the levels of Europe and Japan, forcing American consumers and the auto industry into a green lifestyle.

But the underlying assumption here is that consumers have money to spend, and that they’re willing to spend it on the green-car premium.

While the Big 3 surrender, waving the green flag in the halls of Congress, Detroit still hasn’t proven that it can make a red cent on small cars. And even if they can pad in a modest margin, they still find themselves in the quality battles they have consistently lost to German and Japanese car makers.

Now we’re seeing a return to higher gas prices as drillers cut back on exploration.

Oil and gas drilling activity in the U.S. in the wake of falling energy prices.

In its weekly accounting, Baker Hughes Inc. reported Friday that the number of drilling rigs working in the U.S. had fallen to 1,790, down 12% from the September peak and down 2% from the same time last year.

Given that rising gas prices are in the cards, it seems that consumers will now be forced to stay home rather than try to conserve fuel through green vehicles for years to come.