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		<title>Time to Remove Stimulus?</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/time-to-remove-stimulus/20339</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/time-to-remove-stimulus/20339#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Sep 2009 19:34:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Chuck Butler</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[US Dollar & Forex Trading]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Australian Dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[British pound]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Canadian Loonie]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chuck Butler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[euro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gols prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GROW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Swiss Franc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Timothy Geithner]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[unemployment crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US dollar]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Chinese stocks rise 5%!              Risk Assets follow!             OECD forecasts faster global rowth&#8230;Gold &#38; Silver kicking sand again!                             And Now&#8230; Today&#8217;s Pfennig!</p>
<p>Good day&#8230; And a Tub Thumpin&#8217; Thursday to you! Let&#8217;s hope it remains a Tub Thumpin&#8217; Thursday later today, as I head downtown to watch my beloved Cardinals play a day game! For those of you who are baseball fans, you know what I mean when I carry on about how baseball should only be played during the day!</p>
<p>OK&#8230; Before I get to the currencies, economies and the dolts in the world, I wanted to briefly talk about the SEC, who made an announcement yesterday that they had done an investigation of the Madoff audits, and did not find any&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span id="Label1">Chinese stocks rise 5%!              Risk Assets follow!             OECD forecasts faster global rowth&#8230;Gold &amp; Silver kicking sand again!                             And Now&#8230; Today&#8217;s Pfennig!<span id="more-20339"></span></span></p>
<p><span id="Label1">Good day&#8230; And a Tub Thumpin&#8217; Thursday to you! Let&#8217;s hope it remains a Tub Thumpin&#8217; Thursday later today, as I head downtown to watch my beloved Cardinals play a day game! For those of you who are baseball fans, you know what I mean when I carry on about how baseball should only be played during the day!</p>
<p>OK&#8230; Before I get to the currencies, economies and the dolts in the world, I wanted to briefly talk about the SEC, who made an announcement yesterday that they had done an investigation of the Madoff audits, and did not find any fraud&#8230; Just mistakes&#8230; Really? Mistakes? That&#8217;s what they call them? Even Bernie Madoff himself says that he was &#8220;astonished&#8221; that the SEC failed to shut him down after interviewing him in 2006!</p>
<p>Well&#8230; The currencies, led by the euro, have scratched and clawed their way back to levels they traded at before Tuesday&#8217;s sell off&#8230; The European Central Bank (ECB) is meeting this morning, and while the markets are not expecting rates to move here, they are holding out hope that ECB President, Trichet, will announce that the economic growth expectations have been raised. So&#8230; With these thoughts going through the markets, it&#8217;s no wonder the euro is back to 1.43 this morning.</p>
<p>However, not knowing what Trichet might say, opens Pandora&#8217;s Box of risks for the euro&#8230; For if Trichet does not talk glowingly about the economic growth expectations for the Eurozone, the euro will be hung out on a line. So&#8230; Let&#8217;s hope, Mr. Trichet had a good breakfast, and is feeling spry today!</p>
<p>But for now, it&#8217;s all skipping in the sun for the euro&#8230; The ECB rarely ever ends their meeting before I hit the &#8220;send&#8221; button on the Pfennig, so&#8230; I guess we&#8217;ll take it all up tomorrow!</p>
<p>The euro isn&#8217;t the only currency that has scratched and clawed back against the dollar&#8230; Yesterday, I told you how the Aussie dollar (A$) was rallying on the back of a stronger than expected 2nd QTR GDP report&#8230; Well, now that the euro has joined in, the A$ is really making tracks higher, trading right now, within spittin&#8217; distance of 84-cents&#8230;</p>
<p>And&#8230; Not to gloat or anything&#8230; But, let me go back to yesterday&#8217;s Pfennig and quote something I said&#8230; This is from the Pfennig 9/2&#8230;</p>
<p>&#8220;Talk about getting &#8220;dumped&#8221; that&#8217;s what happened to the Brazilian real yesterday&#8230; Yes, most of the currencies sold off&#8230; But real was really sold off! That makes some sense in that real had out performed most currencies this year, and therefore, the selling, or profit taking would be on a larger scale&#8230; I think this selling was overdone though, and I would look for the real to make an attempt to come back today&#8230;&#8221;</p>
<p>Well&#8230; Guess what happened yesterday? That&#8217;s right! The real came back with a vengeance! Yesterday morning the real was trading 1.9140&#8230; This morning it&#8217;s trading 1.8850! OK&#8230; It&#8217;s not that I&#8217;m auditioning for some kind of &#8220;spot trading&#8221; position&#8230; Geez Louise, no! I like to sleep at night! I just wanted to show that sometimes even a blind squirrel can find an acorn! (with me being the blind squirrel, in case that was confusing!)</p>
<p>The real, and not Brazilian real, but real winner in terms of moves VS the dollar yesterday were the Precious Metals of Gold and Silver&#8230; Kicking sand in the face of the dollar, and laughing! Gold and Silver are both stronger again this morning too!</p>
<p>There&#8217;s a great report going around by Frank Holmes, CEO and CIO of U.S. Global Investors. (NASDAQ:<a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=U.S.+Global+Investors">GROW</a>) I had dinner with Frank Holmes in Las Vegas about 5 years ago, and run into him at conferences throughout the years&#8230; Any way&#8230; Frank Holmes put together a strong report on how September is the best month for Gold&#8230; &#8220;The gold price has risen in 16 of the 20 Septembers since 1989, by far the best success ratio of any month of the year.&#8221; My good friend, David Galland, has the full story in his daily letter from yesterday&#8230; I think you can sign up for it here&#8230; http://www.caseyresearch.com/casey-services/free-publications/caseys-daily-dispatch/</p>
<p>OK&#8230; Chinese stocks rose 5% overnight, and that has the risk takers coming out the woodwork! That&#8217;s quite a rebound for Chinese stocks. With all the talk going around about how it&#8217;s time to get out of stocks before the BIG sell off, one has to wonder if this isn&#8217;t akin to a star burning out&#8230; It&#8217;s burns brightest just before going dark&#8230;</p>
<p>The Swedish krona got hit with a blow to the mid-section yesterday when the central Bank (Riksbank) announced that they were going to keep rates at historical lows until the 3rd QTR of 2010! What? How can they say that? I mean I know, they open their mouths and begin to use their voice box&#8230; But what I&#8217;m talking about is what backs up what they are saying? How do they know that? What a bunch of dolts! I used to think the Riksbank was a good Central Bank, but this blows it for them! (Not that they will be worried that the Pfennig no longer believes them to be a good Central Bank!) So&#8230; These are the cards that have been dealt to the krona&#8230; Too bad&#8230;</p>
<p>So&#8230; The Fed is tossing around the idea of removing pieces of the stimulus&#8230; Treasury Sec. Geithner, a.k.a. the cheater, and not the song by Bob Kuban and the In Men from the 60&#8217;s! (if I recall correctly that was printed on the Pepsi label!) Any way, Geithner doesn&#8217;t agree and has stated that he believes it to be &#8220;too early&#8221; to exit stimulus strategies&#8230; Geithner is getting ready for the G-20 meeting of finance ministers and Central Bankers beginning tomorrow in London, and had this to say&#8230; &#8220;We&#8217;ve come a very long way but I think we have to be realistic, we&#8217;ve got a long way to go still.&#8221;</p>
<p>Well&#8230; That&#8217;s the most intelligent thing I&#8217;ve heard him say so far!</p>
<p>Hey did you see that bond king, Bill Gross of PIMCO, chimed in on this&#8230; &#8220;To the extent that we have had a trillion dollars worth of stimulus, from the standpoint of deficits, and more, the government basically has to continue to do that and to add to that in order to keep the economy chugging along,&#8221; he said. &#8220;To the extent that that&#8217;s limited, to the extent that they pull back on some of those stimulus programs &#8212; &#8216;Cash for Clunkers&#8217; and those types of things &#8212; then the double dip moves into the realm of possibility.&#8221;</p>
<p>Yes&#8230; Double dipping&#8230; It&#8217;s my call for this economy&#8230; And I&#8217;ve said that for a lonnnnnnngggggg time now!</p>
<p>The OECD&#8230; The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, issued a report yesterday that says the global economy is emerging from its worst slump since WWII, and much faster than the OECD forecast just 3 months ago!</p>
<p>That&#8217;s nice&#8230;</p>
<p>You know&#8230; Whenever the currencies rally, the dollar and yen get sold, and vice versa&#8230; But&#8230; Sometimes, the yen rallies alongside its currency brothers, which is an indication of a real rout on the dollar. And that&#8217;s what we&#8217;ve got going on this morning&#8230; The Japanese yen has joined the &#8220;dark side&#8221; and is rallying alongside its currency brothers&#8230;</p>
<p>Well, yesterday&#8217;s data cupboard printed a stronger than expected Productivity number here in the U.S. So, doesn&#8217;t that make you feel better, that you probably had to work longer hours at the same wage, because 1 in 5 American workers are out of jobs, and you have to take up the slack? That&#8217;s the root of Productivity folks&#8230; Sure there are other things like technology, etc. but at the root&#8230; It&#8217;s all about you&#8230;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s why I don&#8217;t like this report&#8230; So now I&#8217;ve given it more Pfennig space than it deserves! UGH!</p>
<p>Today, we&#8217;ll see the Weekly Initial Jobless Claims as usual on a Tub Thumpin&#8217; Thursday, and we&#8217;ll also see the color of the &#8220;services&#8221; piece of the ISM&#8230; Tomorrow is the Big Kahuna though, with the Jobs Jamboree for August&#8230;</p>
<p>Last week, I told you that the U.S. had to deal with another large amount of Treasuries to auction off&#8230; Last week it was $197 Billion&#8230; And no word of problems dealing with these&#8230; But, have you noticed that the 10-year yield, which just a few weeks ago was 3.80%, has fallen to 3.34%? Hmmm&#8230; I wonder how that happened? It means that the price of the 10-year has been rising, which would only happen if there was a truckload of buying&#8230; Hmmm&#8230; I had better go to the Big Finish here before I blow out a gasket!</p>
<p>Currencies today 9/3/09: A$ .8395, kiwi .6785, C$ .9090, euro 1.4310, sterling 1.6380, Swiss .9460, rand 7.7650, krone 6.0270, SEK 7.20, forint 192, zloty 2.8820, koruna 17.8720, RUB 31.67, yen 92.40, sing 1.44, HKD 7.7510, INR 48.91, China 6.8305, pesos 13.57, BRL 1.8850, dollar index 78.22, Oil $69.15, 10-year 3.34%, Silver $15.75, and Gold&#8230; $984.50</p>
<p>Chuck Butler</span></p>
<p><span><a href="http://www.dailypfennig.com/currentIssue.aspx?date=9/3/2009">Source: Time to Remove Stimulus?</a><br />
</span></p>
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		<title>Dow Component Alcoa Kicks Off Lackluster Earnings Season With a Lower-Than-Expected Loss</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/dow-component-alcoa-kicks-off-lackluster-earnings-season-with-a-lower-than-expected-loss/18969</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/dow-component-alcoa-kicks-off-lackluster-earnings-season-with-a-lower-than-expected-loss/18969#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Jul 2009 14:55:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Money Morning Staff</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AA]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aluminum Producer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BNY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[credit crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GROW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jennifer Johnson]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAA" target="_blank">AA</a>) reported a lower-than-expected second-quarter loss on Wednesday, the first in what is <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/06/us-corporate-earnings/" target="_blank">projected to be a lackluster season</a> for U.S. corporate earnings.</p>
<p>Alcoa reported a loss of $312 million, or 32 cents a share, well ahead of analysts’ estimates of a loss of 38 cents a share – but down from its year-ago profit of 66 cents per share. The giant aluminum producer is the first component of the bellwether <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI" target="_blank">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> to report its second-quarter performance, marking the beginning of the U.S. corporate earnings season.</p>
<p>Overall, earnings expectations are bleak. The companies that make up the <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX" target="_blank">Standard &#38; Poor’s 500 Index</a> are <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124713782249017585.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" target="_blank">expected to post declining profits for the eighth consecutive quarter, a 36% decline</a>, according to<strong><em>Thompson Reuters</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Alcoa’s performance was a result of&#8230;</p></div>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="entry">
<p>Alcoa Inc. (NYSE: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AAA" target="_blank">AA</a>) reported a lower-than-expected second-quarter loss on Wednesday, the first in what is <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/06/us-corporate-earnings/" target="_blank">projected to be a lackluster season</a> for U.S. corporate earnings.<span id="more-18969"></span></p>
<p>Alcoa reported a loss of $312 million, or 32 cents a share, well ahead of analysts’ estimates of a loss of 38 cents a share – but down from its year-ago profit of 66 cents per share. The giant aluminum producer is the first component of the bellwether <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXDJX:.DJI" target="_blank">Dow Jones Industrial Average</a> to report its second-quarter performance, marking the beginning of the U.S. corporate earnings season.</p>
<p>Overall, earnings expectations are bleak. The companies that make up the <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXSP:.INX" target="_blank">Standard &amp; Poor’s 500 Index</a> are <a href="http://online.wsj.com/article/SB124713782249017585.html?mod=googlenews_wsj" target="_blank">expected to post declining profits for the eighth consecutive quarter, a 36% decline</a>, according to<strong><em>Thompson Reuters</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Alcoa’s performance was a result of cost-cutting measures undertaken by the company.</p>
<p>“At first glance it looks constructive. <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/31801817" target="_blank">They were able to do better than expected from cost savings</a>. Year-over-year production is down, and down sequentially as well, but it looks like they were able to contain costs,” Brian Hicks, co-manager of the U.S. Global Investors Inc. (Nasdaq: <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGROW" target="_blank">GROW</a>) natural resources fund, told cable-TV channel <strong><em>CNBC</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Upcoming earnings reports are likely to be similar to Alcoa’s – <a href="http://blogs.barrons.com/stockstowatchtoday/2009/07/09/wish-you-were-here-sold-in-may-went-away-so-where-am-i/" target="_blank">not as bad as expected, but still losses.</a></p>
<p>Companies are cutting costs across the board to boost their bottom line, but this will give stocks – at best – only a limited boost.  Analysts say that until Alcoa and the other sector leaders start recording actual increases in sales and profits, stocks will remain locked in a narrow trading range, and prices will be volatile.</p>
<p>“<a href="http://money.cnn.com/news/newsfeeds/articles/djf500/200907091256DOWJONESDJONLINE000754_FORTUNE5.htm" target="_blank">As the old saying goes, you can’t save your way to prosperity</a>,” Nicholas Colas, chief market strategist at <a href="http://www.google.com/finance?cid=10416555" target="_blank">BNY ConvergEx Group LLC</a>, told<strong><em>CNNMoney.com</em></strong>.</p>
<p>While Alcoa marks the beginning of the earnings season, most other companies won’t report for another two weeks – leaving the market in “wait-and-see” mode until more definitive reports give the market some direction.</p>
<p>Source: <a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/07/10/alcoa-second-quarter-earnings/">Dow Component Alcoa Kicks Off Lackluster Earnings Season With a Lower-Than-Expected Loss</a></div>
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		<title>Mutual Funds With Low Minimums Can Put Investors Back on the Winning Path</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/mutual-funds-with-low-minimums-can-put-investors-back-on-the-winning-path/13179</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 09 Feb 2009 18:47:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GROW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TROW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USCOX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[VWELX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[William Patalon III]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Is it possible to save and even grow your money in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression? William Patalon from <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a> believes so.</p>
<p>And in his first installment of a new series, he shows you exactly how you can do that with low-minimum mutual funds.</p>
<p></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Just this week, a friend told me that he wanted to jump-start his long-neglected saving-and-investing efforts, but was worried it wouldn’t be possible on his current household budget.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">I’d be willing to bet that a lot of folks are asking that  very same question right now.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">I mean, let’s face it: Everyone knows how important it is to save money. But in the middle of what may well be the worst U.S. financial crisis&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is it possible to save and even grow your money in the midst of the worst financial crisis since the Great Depression? William Patalon from <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a> believes so.</p>
<p>And in his first installment of a new series, he shows you exactly how you can do that with low-minimum mutual funds.</p>
<p><span id="more-13179"></span></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Just this week, a friend told me that he wanted to jump-start his long-neglected saving-and-investing efforts, but was worried it wouldn’t be possible on his current household budget.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">I’d be willing to bet that a lot of folks are asking that  very same question right now.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">I mean, let’s face it: Everyone knows how important it is to save money. But in the middle of what may well be the worst U.S. financial crisis since the Great Depression, finding the cash to create an emergency fund – or to invest in a mutual fund that requires a $10,000 initial outlay – can appear so daunting that many investors decide to not even bother.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Don’t that same mistake.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">There’s an option: Mutual funds with a low initial  investment threshold. We all know, for example, that Vanguard Wellington (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AVWELX">VWELX</a>) is a great  fund – indeed, it’s a favorite of <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald – but here in the depths of a financial crisis, not everyone has the $10,000 in cash needed to become a new shareholder.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">The upshot: Unfortunately, a lot of folks stop right there,  and don’t bother to jump-start their saving-and-investing program.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Don’t that same mistake.</p>
<h3 style="padding-left: 30px;">When a Small Start is a Good Start</h3>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">One way around is to seek mutual funds that allow investors to start with either a very small initial investment – or with no initial investment at all (provided you’re willing to let the fund company take $50 or $100 a month directly out of your checking or savings account).</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">This approach has a couple of advantages, <strong><em>Money  Morning</em></strong>’s Fitz-Gerald says:</p>
<ul style="padding-left: 30px;" type="disc">
<li>First, it induces you to keep investing, even in a bad market, which history shows is a key element of better long-term results.</li>
<li>Second, by taking advantage of the electronic-investing option many fund companies offer, you’re investing consistently – for instance, investing the same amount of money on the same day each month.</li>
<li>Third,       for the ultra-cautious the lower investment thresholds can serve as a <em>de       facto</em> risk-management tool, since it means that you’re putting less money at risk in the market at a time when the market is uncertain (although, at the same time, you’re still investing).</li>
</ul>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">“It’s a way to insure that you continue to invest, even when the markets stink,” Fitz-Gerald says. “If you are gun-shy, and don’t really want to put a lot of cash at risk, this is a good way to continue your forward-investing momentum, to continue even when the markets aren’t optimum.”<br />
Where do you look for funds like this?</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">One good place to start your search is with <strong><em>Morningstar</em></strong>,  the noted financial-products researcher. For some help, we turned to <strong><em>Morningstar.com’s</em></strong> handy <a href="http://screen.morningstar.com/FundSelector.html">mutual fund  screener</a>. And here’s what we did. We looked for funds with an initial purchase of $500 or less. Not wanting big chunks of our capital to for sales commissions, we set the “load” status to “No-Load Funds Only.” And we opted for low-expense offerings, meaning we screened for funds featuring expense ratios of 1.00% or less.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Wanting to cull this further – and to hopefully end up with the “best-in-breed” funds – we limited our search to funds that were rated as “five-star” products by <strong><em>Morningstar</em></strong>. Lastly, since we’re looking chiefly as equity funds in this exercise, we ran one screen for domestic stock funds and another for international stock funds.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">We ended up with 23 funds in the domestic-stock category and  16 funds in the international stock category.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">What this demonstrates is “that there are quality funds out there,” even for investors who have smaller amounts to invest, Fitz-Gerald says.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong><em>Morningstar</em></strong>’s mutual fund screening program – which is free – allows for investors to include other parameters, too, including those for risk, returns, portfolio turnover, and management tenure. We were attempting to keep it simple to show what’s possible, and also figured you’d want to do some of your own research to find funds that match your personal financial needs. The program can also screen for bond funds. One task it does not perform is to identify which of the funds are close to new investors.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><img src="http://www.moneymorning.com/images2/Funds.gif" alt="" /></p>
<h3 style="padding-left: 30px;">Go Global or Get Left Behind</h3>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">The <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> graphic shows the results of  our search for International stock funds – and for a good reason. As regular  readers of <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong> know, we believe a global investing strategy is key to any investor’s long-term success. Unfortunately, too many investors de-emphasize the international or global elements of their portfolio, believing that domestic investments are less risky.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">There are many different kinds of risk, however – including the risk of getting left behind. Long-term, most of the growth that’s expected in the decades to come will be outside U.S. borders.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">If you want proof, just ask the World Bank.</p>
<ul style="padding-left: 30px;" type="disc">
<li>Today, the United States and       Asia each account for 28% of the worldwide economy. Combined, that’s a       total of 56%.</li>
<li>Twenty-five years from now, America’s share of the global economic pie will have slipped to 24%. But Asia’s will have soared to 55%.</li>
</ul>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">In short, in slightly more than two decades, Asia will be  twice the economic powerhouse that the United States is today.<br />
It’s true that a number of overseas markets have been problem-plagued in recent months. But that’s just a short-term problem. And as the World Bank statistics demonstrate, the long-term outlook for growth outside the U.S. borders is exceptionally strong.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">By focusing only on U.S. stocks, you’ll be looking at only a quarter of the world’s investment opportunities. You’ll miss out on some of the world’s fastest-growing markets. And you’ll get left behind.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">The greatest growth will come from China, India and the newly capitalist economies of Eastern and Southern Asia. There may be some other growth areas, such as resource-rich Latin America.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Famed Wharton Business School Professor <a href="http://www.jeremysiegel.com/">Jeremy Siegel</a> recently pronounced that the long-held conventional wisdom on international investing should be thrown out the window. For decades, we’ve heard over and over how international investments should comprise 5%, 10% or at most 15% of our portfolio’s total value. Any more than that is foolhardy and risky, we were programmed to believe.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">According to Siegel, however, the truly foolhardy act is to limit our international exposure that much. In other words, the biggest risk U.S. investors now face isn’t just the possibility of losses incurred when some foreign market plunges. The real risk now is the possibility that U.S. investors face – getting left behind financially because of all the growth that’s expected to be generated beyond U.S. borders.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Investment advisors who stick with the old asset-allocation model are actually doing their clients a huge disservice, Siegel says.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Siegel now believes that international investments should comprise about 40% of your total holdings. Most individual investors know Siegel for his best-selling book, <a href="http://www.amazon.com/Stocks-Long-Run-Jeremy-Siegel/dp/0071494707/ref=pd_bbs_sr_4/002-1019342-9804060?ie=UTF8&amp;s=books&amp;qid=1184345815&amp;sr=8-4"><strong>Stocks  for the Long Run: The Definitive Guide to Financial Market Returns and  Long-Term Investment Strategies</strong></a>. The book first came out in 1994, and is considered one of a handful of “must-read’ titles in investing finance. The new edition, which appeared in November 2007, includes a long addition addressing the international arena, and how investors must adapt their strategies to the new realities of globalization.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">The nation’s wealthy already really understand what’s at stake and are already profiting from these trends &#8211; and in a big way. According to a 2007 study by the <a href="http://www.spectrem.com/">Spectrem Group</a>, 40% of affluent U.S. households are continuing to invest internationally, while a full one-third are actually planning to invest more. Their chief country of choice when it comes to investing abroad: China.</p>
<h3 style="padding-left: 30px;">Other Options</h3>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">For cash-challenged investors who want to capitalize on China’s growth, there is a solid option – the China Region Opportunities Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=uscox">USCOX</a>), which is operated  by the San Antonio, Texas-based U.S. Global Investors Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=grow">GROW</a>). As it does with most  of its funds, U.S. Global offers interested China fund investors its  trademarked “<a href="http://www.usfunds.com/docs/guides/USCOX/guide_pg6.asp">ABC  Investment Plan</a>,” which permits investors to make a $100 initial investment and subsequent monthly investments of $30 a month, so long as the new shareholder consents to an automated electronic transfer. You can even tell the company which day of the month you want the money to be invested.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">A number of other companies offer similar programs, which are known in the industry as “automated investment plans,” or AIPs. One other company known for operating quality funds is the Baltimore-based T. Rowe Price Group Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3ATROW">TROW</a>), a firm I covered during my time as a business journalist. With most of its funds, the minimum initial investment is waived as long as you agree to have at least $50 a month per fund automatically transferred from your checking account and invested. That arrangement must be maintained until you reach the specified minimums to avoid any extraneous fees.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">(One point worthy of note: When my wife and I bought our house nearly nine years ago, the down payment came from two T. Rowe Price funds that I’d built up over a couple of years solely through AIP investments).</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Here’s a list of T. Rowe Price funds of all types <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=trow">that are ranked four and five  stars</a> by <strong><em>Morningstar</em></strong>.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">One final note about low-initial investment funds: This is a great way to get you started back on the savings pathway. At some point, however, you’ll likely want to either add funds or boost your regular investment total to start amassing capital.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">“One thing that investors too often don’t understand: You never want to stop  investing altogether,” says <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>’s Fitz-Gerald. “Even if it’s only a couple of bucks here and there. History shows that those who continue to invest through thick and thin are those who generate the best returns.”</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">At least, however, this strategy is a great way to get you started back on the savings pathway. At some point, however, you’ll likely want to either add funds or boost your regular investment total to start amassing capital.</p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;">Source: <a class="titleref" rel="bookmark" href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2009/02/09/investment-funds/">Mutual Funds With  Low Minimums Can Put Investors Back on the Winning Path</a></p>
<p style="padding-left: 30px;"><strong></strong>Editor’s Note: This is the first installment of a new series that will explore sound strategies for investing during the ongoing financial crisis<strong>.</strong></p>
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		<title>6 Reasons to Invest in China and 5 China Profit Plays</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/6-reasons-to-invest-in-china-and-5-china-profit-plays/4821</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/6-reasons-to-invest-in-china-and-5-china-profit-plays/4821#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Aug 2008 12:40:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Investors who abandon <strong>China </strong>now will live to regret their decision, says <strong>William Patalon III</strong> in <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a>.</p>
<p>William says every successful investor needs a <strong>China investing  strategy</strong>, despite the fact that China&#8217;s benchmark index, the Shanghai stock index, is <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/20/china-stimulus-package/" onclick="s_objectID=">down 56%  so far this year</a>.</p>
<p>Following <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/jim-rogers-says-china-remains-a-strong-profit-play/4722" title="Read on at ContrarianProfits.com.">Jim Rogers&#8217; bullish comments</a> on China in a recent exclusive interview with Money Morning, Bill gives six reasons to invest in China and five solid China profit plays. </p>
<blockquote><p>In an <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/20/jim-rogers-interview/" onclick="s_objectID=">exclusive  interview</a> with <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>, global investing guru Jim Rogers said that giving up on that country now would be like selling all your U.S. stocks at the start of the 1900s &#8211; before America created massive wealth by evolving into a world superpower.</p>
<p>“I have never sold any&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Investors who abandon <strong>China </strong>now will live to regret their decision, says <strong>William Patalon III</strong> in <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a>.</p>
<p>William says every successful investor needs a <strong>China investing  strategy</strong>, despite the fact that China&#8217;s benchmark index, the Shanghai stock index, is <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/20/china-stimulus-package/" onclick="s_objectID=">down 56%  so far this year</a>.</p>
<p>Following <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/jim-rogers-says-china-remains-a-strong-profit-play/4722" title="Read on at ContrarianProfits.com.">Jim Rogers&#8217; bullish comments</a> on China in a recent exclusive interview with Money Morning, Bill gives six reasons to invest in China and five solid China profit plays. <span id="more-4821"></span></p>
<blockquote><p>In an <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/20/jim-rogers-interview/" onclick="s_objectID=">exclusive  interview</a> with <strong><em>Money Morning</em></strong>, global investing guru Jim Rogers said that giving up on that country now would be like selling all your U.S. stocks at the start of the 1900s &#8211; before America created massive wealth by evolving into a world superpower.</p>
<p>“I have never sold any of my Chinese companies,” Rogers said. “You know, selling China in 2008 is like selling America in 1908. Sure, let’s say the market goes down another 40% &#8211; so what! You look back over 100 years, you look back from the beauty of 1928, or even 1938 [in the depths of the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">Great  Depression</a>], and there is somebody who bought shares in 1908. He was still  a lot better off having not sold in 1908.”</p>
<p>Even if the U.S. economy skids into a recession, China’s long-term growth outlook remains strong – and that’s after nearly 30 years of double-digit growth that country has already logged.</p>
<p>Here are some of the key points – as well as some profit plays – to  consider:</p>
<p><strong><u>First, China remains one of the strongest economies in the world</u></strong>. Even after China reduced its growth outlook, the country remains on track for an economic expansion of better than 9% for the year to come. We aren’t so naïve as to expect a straight path of uninterrupted growth. But neither do we expect a U.S. downturn to squelch the Red Dragon’s long-term growth prospects.</p>
<p>For broad exposure to China’s growth, consider the China Region Opportunity  Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=uscox" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="uscox_1">USCOX</a>), managed  by the San Antonio-based U.S. Global Investors Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=grow&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="grow&amp;hl=en_1">GROW</a>).</p>
<p><strong><u>Second, China remains awash in liquidity, with $1.68 trillion in  foreign reserves</u>. </strong>And much of that excess capital is being focused on the upside, particularly when it comes to boosting disposable income and then building brand awareness for its own products.</p>
<p>And now that liquidity is allowing the country to go on a global shopping  spree, enabling its companies and its <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/02/18/outlook-2008-three-ways-to-profit-from-sovereign-wealth-funds-the-next-wall-street/" onclick="s_objectID=">state-run  sovereign wealth funds to pick up such choice assets at bargain prices</a>. One  beneficiary of such outside capital: Companies such as MGM Mirage (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mgm&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="mgm&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">MGM</a>),  which is being positioned as a<strong> </strong><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/09/27/heres-why-mgm-is-a-high-profit-play-on-china/" onclick="s_objectID=">high-profit  play on China</a>.</p>
<p><strong><u>Third, China’s markets are quickly becoming much &#8220;narrower</u></strong>.<strong>&#8221; </strong>Money is being reallocated from highly risky ventures into more-predictable enterprises. That’s an important trend for investors to track, for history shows time and again that these more-predictable ventures fare the best during uncertain, volatility-laced markets. One advantage that these companies have, believe it or not, is that they don’t have to tap into the credit markets at a time when credit is costly, or not available at all. Weaker companies won’t be able to get financing, even if it is available. Consider such potential “New Dragon” companies as online media player SINA Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=sina" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="sina_1">SINA</a>) or fast-growing  advertising play Focus Media Holding Ltd. (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fmcn&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="fmcn&amp;hl=en_1">FMCN</a>), for instance. As the economy becomes more “normalized,” consumers will increasingly need such products as insurance, so take a look at China Life Insurance Co. Ltd. (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=lfc" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="lfc_1">LFC</a>).</p>
<p><strong><u>Fourth, many of China’s companies are now reporting real profits</u></strong>. For decades, most Chinese companies operated on the slimmest of margins, with profits that were actually based on taxes or export-incentive “loopholes.” They were kept on life support with an endless stream of bank loans. All of this is being eradicated by Beijing. Money is being taken out of highly risky ventures, or the uncompetitive, state-run enterprises that are ridden with debt. In China, that capital is now being redeployed into the innovative, more-promising ventures that we refer to as the “New Dragons” – many of which are destined to rival the U.S.-based “Global Titans” as the dominant global brands and investor stalwarts of tomorrow. One New Dragon that’s already making a global splash is solar-energy player First Solar Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fslr&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="fslr&amp;hl=en_1">FSLR</a>). Also  consider Huaneng Power International Inc. (ADR: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=hnp&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="hnp&amp;hl=en_1">HNP</a>), the domestic  China power producer that’s also getting involved in projects outside its home  market.</p>
<p><strong><u>Fifth, the still-weak U.S. greenback will make brand-name imports  (both products and services) even more popular in China</u></strong>. And rapidly growing consumer income will give China’s consumers the cash to spend on such one-time luxuries as travel and tourism. One big beneficiary: The Boeing Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ba&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="ba&amp;hl=en_1">BA</a>) of the United  States, which says that China and other Asian nations <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2007/11/13/chinas-growth-will-clear-340-billion-worth-of-airliner-sales-for-takeoff-over-the-next-20-years/" onclick="s_objectID=">will  need $340 billion worth of new aircraft</a> over the next two decades.</p>
<p><strong><u>Sixth, look for companies that generate revenue “from” China, even if  they’re not based “in” China</u></strong>. This is a great risk-management strategy: It’s a way for investors to profit from China, while enjoying the investor protections and regulatory oversight of such developed markets as the United States and Europe. The Global Titans are our No. 1 choice here. Many pay a dividend, as well.</p>
<p>If you’re seeking some solid, specific picks, some of the best ones to  consider include PepsiCo Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3APEP" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3APEP_1">PEP</a>), Diageo PLC (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ADEO" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3ADEO_1">DEO</a>), Yum! Brands  Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=yum&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="yum&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">YUM</a>),  McDonald’s Corp. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=mcd&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="mcd&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">MCD</a>),  The Coca-Cola Co. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ko&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="ko&amp;hl=en_1">KO</a>),  and a few others.</p>
<p><strong><u>The bottom line is this</u>:</strong> These days, and forever more, every investor has to have a China investing strategy. And while choosing to sit on the sidelines certainly qualifies as a strategy, remember this: Over the long haul, it’s probably not a profitable plan to follow.</p></blockquote>
<p>P.S. The first part of this two-part story, <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/08/china-investment/" onclick="s_objectID=">Why Every Investor  Should Have a China Investment Strategy</a>, appeared in the Aug. 8 issue of Money  Morning.</p>
<p>Source:  	  <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/08/22/international-income-investing/" onclick="s_objectID=" class="titleref" rel="bookmark">How to Profit From A China Investing Strategy</a></p>
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		<title>The Lost Decade: How the U.S. Financial Crisis Resembles Japan’s Ten Years of Misery &#8211; And How to Play it for Profit</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-lost-decade-how-the-us-financial-crisis-resembles-japan%e2%80%99s-ten-years-of-misery-and-how-to-play-it-for-profit/3904</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 18 Jul 2008 17:50:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>William Patalon III</dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[<p> A &#8220;Lost Decade&#8221; doesn’t have to translate into lost profit  opportunities.As the global financial crisis continues to escalate, the  United States is increasingly facing the prospect of a <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/17/the-lost-decade/" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">long malaise  that could easily eclipse Japan’s Lost Decade of the 1990s</a> in both duration  and depth.</p>
<p>And history shows that such periods can be the worst for investors to navigate &#8211; especially when they follow a record stock-market run, such as the all-time-highs that U.S. share prices reached last fall.</p>
<p>In the United States, for instance, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?cid="983582_1" target="_blank">Dow Jones Industrial  Average</a> hit 381 on Sept. 3, 1929, a record pinnacle achieved in advance of  both the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">Great  Crash</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">Great  Depression</a> that followed &#8211; and a level that wouldn’t be eclipsed again  until November 1954 &#8211; more&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p> A &#8220;Lost Decade&#8221; doesn’t have to translate into lost profit  opportunities.As the global financial crisis continues to escalate, the  United States is increasingly facing the prospect of a <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/17/the-lost-decade/" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">long malaise  that could easily eclipse Japan’s Lost Decade of the 1990s</a> in both duration  and depth.<span id="more-3904"></span></p>
<p>And history shows that such periods can be the worst for investors to navigate &#8211; especially when they follow a record stock-market run, such as the all-time-highs that U.S. share prices reached last fall.</p>
<p>In the United States, for instance, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=983582" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?cid="983582_1" target="_blank">Dow Jones Industrial  Average</a> hit 381 on Sept. 3, 1929, a record pinnacle achieved in advance of  both the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Great_Crash,_1929" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">Great  Crash</a> and the <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">Great  Depression</a> that followed &#8211; and a level that wouldn’t be eclipsed again  until November 1954 &#8211; more than 25 years later.</p>
<p>From the Great Crash, fast-forward 60 years, to 1989 Japan. On Dec. 29 of  that year, the <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5EN225" onclick="s_objectID=" q?s="%5EN225_1" target="_blank">Nikkei  225 Index</a> topped out at 38,957.44, before closing at 38,915.87. By the following September, stock prices had nearly been halved &#8211; and there was still much more bloodletting to go. (Despite several subsequent rallies up over the 20,000 threshold, the Nikkei ultimately bottomed at 7,830 in April 2003. It closed yesterday &#8211; Thursday &#8211; at 12,887.95, still down 67% from its trading high 19 years ago).</p>
<p>The fallout from Japan’s slow motion, stock-and-real-estate-market meltdowns was incredible. By early 2004, Japanese houses were selling at 1/10th their peak value, and commercial real estate was selling for less than 1/100th of its record highs. All told, an estimated $20 trillion in stock and real estate wealth was vaporized (although one could easily argue that the peak values weren’t real to start with).</p>
<p>That’s scary stuff, especially because many experts fear the U.S. version of the Lost Decade that’s to follow could be much worse. After all, the U.S. financial crisis is much, much bigger, and the resultant malaise is arguably going to take much longer to work through.</p>
<p>Let’s look at some of the some of the profit plays that will allow investors to sidestep a long U.S. slumber &#8211; and profit just the same.</p>
<p><strong>1. <u>Miss the Market Meltdown</u></strong>: The Dow closed at an all-time record high of 14,164.53 on Oct. 9 of last year. With yesterday’s 207-point rally, the Dow closed at 11,446.66 &#8211; leaving the 30-stock blue-chip index down 19% from the October record, leaving it right on the doorstep of a bear market.</p>
<p>But what if things were to get much worse? For the Dow to match the Nikkei’s wrenching decline of 67%, it would have to drop all the way down to 4,574.29 &#8211; an area it hasn’t seen since the first half of the 1990s.</p>
<p>Will  the Dow drop that much? Probably not.</p>
<p>But  it doesn’t hurt to hedge. That brings me to a key point: There’s a big  difference between &#8220;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diversification_%28finance%29" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">diversification</a>,&#8221;  which most individual investors equate with &#8220;protection,&#8221; and actual &#8220;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hedging" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">hedging</a>,&#8221; which is part of an investment-protection package that professional traders employ. If we believe a market poised for a real fall, we want to hedge and find an investment that’s going to go up in value while everything else is going down.</p>
<p>For us, that investment is the <strong>Rydex Inverse S&amp;P 500  Strategy Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Ryurx&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="Ryurx&amp;hl=en_1" target="_blank">RYURX</a>)</strong>.  RYDEX URSA is a so-called &#8220;inverse fund&#8221; that’s designed to profit as the <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?cid=626307" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?cid="626307_1" target="_blank">Standard &amp; Poor’s 500  Index</a> declines in value. In that way, it complements our other holdings by  providing some portfolio stability.</p>
<p>As <strong><em><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Money Morning</a></em></strong> Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald says, hedging is such a compelling strategy because financial studies demonstrate that &#8220;even though broad sections of the markets may decline over time and our portfolios with it, we need only have a small section permanently hedged at any given time. The reason is that, by having a small portion of our assets (5%-10% or less) earning above-average returns, our overall returns are far higher over time.&#8221;</p>
<p>2.<strong> <u>Gold Isn’t Just for Hedging Anymore</u></strong>:  Mention the word &#8220;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation" onclick="s_objectID=" target="_blank">stagflation</a>&#8221; to anyone who worked and invested during the 1970s, and I’ll bet you’ll actually see that person physically shudder at the memory. Stagflation &#8211; the double-whammy combination of stagnant economic growth and high inflation &#8211; was thought to be an impossibility, until it showed up during that decade, leaving ruin in its wake.</p>
<p>But for our purposes, no matter whether we’re looking at stagflation or inflation, one thing is clear &#8211; we’re looking at higher prices. And when prices are on the upswing, gold is the one investment you certainly want to own.</p>
<p>Then there’s also the whole &#8220;Lost Decade&#8221; outlook for the U.S. economy. In a misguided attempt to slowly deflate the asset bubbles it created with a years of overly expansive monetary policies, the U.S. Federal Reserve is now keeping interest rates at artificially low levels &#8211; gambling it will still be able to launch a successful counterattack on inflation later on. What’s more, the central bank also has made the ill-fated decision to diversify into the &#8220;bailout business&#8221; with its intervention in the <strong>Bear Stearns Cos. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=bsc&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="bsc&amp;hl=en_1" target="_blank">BSC</a>)</strong> and <strong>Fannie  Mae (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fnm&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="fnm&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1" target="_blank">FNM</a>)</strong> and <strong>Freddie Mac (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=fre&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="fre&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1" target="_blank">FRE</a>)</strong> debacles.</p>
<p>The artificially low interest rates will continue to punish the U.S. greenback, sending it lower and causing inflation to accelerate. And the trillions in debt the U.S. government’s balance sheet will take on from the Fannie and Freddie bailouts certainly won’t help.</p>
<p>In addition to the bleak-sounding inflation-case for gold, there’s also what I like to call the &#8220;wealth case&#8221; for the &#8220;yellow metal.&#8221; As the consumer classes in China, India, Latin America and Emerging Europe grow in both breadth and depth, their ability to buy luxury goods will finally intersect with their desire. And gold will be a major beneficiary.</p>
<p>But how best to play it? There are mining companies, bullion, coins and even jewelry. Everybody has his or her preferences for gold investments, including us. We prefer the<strong> SPDR Gold Trust Exchange Traded  Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gld" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="gld_1" target="_blank">GLD</a>)</strong>. There’s  no delivery risk, it’s liquid, and you can buy and sell easily through any  online brokerage.</p>
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		<title>Cleveland-Cliffs Taps Into Emerging Market Steel Demand with $10 Billion Buyout of Alpha Natural Resources</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/cleveland-cliffs-taps-into-emerging-market-steel-demand-with-10-billion-buyout-of-alpha-natural-resources/3891</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/cleveland-cliffs-taps-into-emerging-market-steel-demand-with-10-billion-buyout-of-alpha-natural-resources/3891#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 17 Jul 2008 21:14:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jason Simpkins</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ANR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRIC Nations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CLF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GROW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Iron Ore]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Simpkins]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACLF" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3ACLF_1" target="_blank">CLF</a>), a top producer of iron ore pellets and supplier of metallurgical coal in North America, will buy Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AANR" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3AANR_1" target="_blank">ANR</a>) in an effort to  bolster its coal reserves and exploit the soaring demand for steel among  emerging markets worldwide.</p>
<p>Cleveland-Cliffs is paying $10 billion for Alpha Natural Resources, a company that specializes in mining thermal coal used in steel production, the company said on its website. The deal values Alpha at $128.12 per share, a 35% premium to its closing share price on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Alpha shareholders will receive 0.95 Cleveland-Cliffs shares and $22.23 in cash for each share they hold. Alpha shareholders will hold 40% of the resultant company.</p>
<p>&#8220;By combining our companies’ complementary operations and management capabilities,&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cleveland-Cliffs Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ACLF" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3ACLF_1" target="_blank">CLF</a>), a top producer of iron ore pellets and supplier of metallurgical coal in North America, will buy Alpha Natural Resources Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AANR" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3AANR_1" target="_blank">ANR</a>) in an effort to  bolster its coal reserves and exploit the soaring demand for steel among  emerging markets worldwide.</p>
<p>Cleveland-Cliffs is paying $10 billion for Alpha Natural Resources, a company that specializes in mining thermal coal used in steel production, the company said on its website. The deal values Alpha at $128.12 per share, a 35% premium to its closing share price on Tuesday.</p>
<p>Alpha shareholders will receive 0.95 Cleveland-Cliffs shares and $22.23 in cash for each share they hold. Alpha shareholders will hold 40% of the resultant company.</p>
<p>&#8220;By combining our companies’ complementary operations and management capabilities, we will be well positioned to meet the world’s increasing demand for raw materials,&#8221; Joseph Carrabba, Cleveland-Cliffs’ chairman and chief executive officer, said in a statement.</p>
<p>The new company, which will be known as Cliffs Natural Resources, will operate nine iron ore facilities and more than 60 coal mines throughout North America, South America, and Australia. The company’s iron-ore reserves will total one billion tons, while its coal reserves will more than triple to 916 million tons. The annual savings from cost synergies will be at least $200 million by 2010.</p>
<p>Cleveland-Cliffs brought in $2.28 billion in revenue last year, while Alpha took in $1.64 billion. Together, the companies expect to see total revenue of $10 billion by 2009.</p>
<p>&#8220;<a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aw_bRsaFzmlk&amp;refer=home" onclick="s_objectID=" news?pid="20601087&amp;sid=aw_bRsaFzmlk&amp;refer=home_1" target="_blank">This transaction is a good strategic fit for Cleveland-Cliffs as it gives them a stronger presence in the very tight metallurgical coal market and complements their iron-ore business</a>,&#8221; Brian Hicks, co-manager of the $2 billion Global  Resources Fund at U.S. Global Investors Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NASDAQ%3AGROW" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NASDAQ%3AGROW_1" target="_blank">GROW</a>) told <strong><em>Bloomberg  News</em></strong>.</p>
<p>Coal and iron ore are the two key ingredients in the production of steel, which is in high demand throughout the developing world.</p>
<p>&#8220;Global steel demand growth continues to be led by emerging economies to meet the requirements of expanding industrial sectors and infrastructure growth,&#8221; Risaburo Nezu, chairman of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) steel committee, told <em><strong>Forbes</strong></em>. &#8220;Demand in  many mature economies has slowed in line with weaker economic activity.&#8221;</p>
<p>According to Nezu, steel use continues to grow most rapidly in the so-called &#8220;BRIC&#8221; economies of Brazil, Russia, India, and China. In 2007, steel use rose:</p>
<ul type="disc">
<li>18.6% in Brazil</li>
<li>13.5% in Russia</li>
<li>11.3% in India</li>
<li>13% in China</li>
</ul>
<p>All told, those four countries found uses for 521 metric  tons of steel, with China accounting for 78% of that total.</p>
<p>While the price of U.S. steel-sheet hit a record $1,052 a ton in June, rising from $532 a year earlier, the price of coking coal and iron ore have doubled in the past year as well. As a producer of both products Cliffs Natural Resources will be well positioned to exploit emerging market growth.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/07/17/cleveland-cliffs-taps-into-emerging-market-steel-demand-with-10-billion-buyout-of-alpha-natural-resources/">Source: Cleveland-Cliffs Taps Into Emerging Market Steel Demand with $10 Billion Buyout of Alpha Natural Resources</a></p>
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		<title>Popular Stock Indicator Tells Investors to Hit the BRICs</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/popular-stock-indicator-tells-investors-to-hit-the-brics/2711</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/popular-stock-indicator-tells-investors-to-hit-the-brics/2711#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 02 Jun 2008 15:06:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Jennifer Yousfi</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Emerging Markets]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRIC Nations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRK.A]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[BRK.B]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[china]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[etfs etns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[EWZ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[FXI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs Group Inc]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Gross Domestic Product]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GROW]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Growth Ratio]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[India]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[INP]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[LUKOY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[OGZPY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PBR]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[peg ratios]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PKX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Price Earnings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RDY]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RIO]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[RSX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[South Korea]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Market Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Stock Valuations]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TTM]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[US stocks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USCOX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Warren Buffett]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[<p>Global investors seeking undervalued markets might want to  look at Russia, China, India, Malaysia, South Korea or Brazil. And if they want to avoid overvalued markets, they’d be best to eschew Italy, the United States, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, or Germany.</p>
<p>What’s tipping us off? The so-called Price/Earnings-to- Growth ratio, better known  to investors as the &#8220;PEG&#8221; ratio.</p>
<p>Let me explain …</p>
<p>One of the most popular stock valuations is the Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. If you take that calculation one step further and include a stock’s expected growth rate you hit on the P/E-to-growth ratio, or <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp" onclick="s_objectID=">PEG ratio</a>.</p>
<p>Analysts have been using PEG ratios for years, now, to pick undervalued stocks, but now you also can use that same ratio to determine which countries are&#8230;</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Global investors seeking undervalued markets might want to  look at Russia, China, India, Malaysia, South Korea or Brazil. And if they want to avoid overvalued markets, they’d be best to eschew Italy, the United States, Japan, Canada, Switzerland, or Germany.<span id="more-2711"></span></p>
<p>What’s tipping us off? The so-called Price/Earnings-to- Growth ratio, better known  to investors as the &#8220;PEG&#8221; ratio.</p>
<p>Let me explain …</p>
<p>One of the most popular stock valuations is the Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio. If you take that calculation one step further and include a stock’s expected growth rate you hit on the P/E-to-growth ratio, or <a href="http://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/pegratio.asp" onclick="s_objectID=">PEG ratio</a>.</p>
<p>Analysts have been using PEG ratios for years, now, to pick undervalued stocks, but now you also can use that same ratio to determine which countries are trading at good value.</p>
<p>A recent <strong><em><a href="http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/" onclick="s_objectID=">Bespoke  Investment Group</a> </em></strong>report used the popular PEG ratio to identify  which country’s stocks are currently undervalued.</p>
<p>&#8220;Late last year, we began performing this analysis on countries to get a better comparison of the valuations of both developed and emerging markets,&#8221; the B.I.G. Tips report read.  &#8220;To do this, we divide the country’s [gross domestic product] growth estimate into the estimated P/E ratio of its major stock market index.&#8221;</p>
<p>Like an individual security’s PEG ratio, the lower the  ratio, the more undervalued the stock.</p>
<p>The top-three spots on that list go to Russia (1.37), China  (1.91) and India (2.06). Brazil clocks in at sixth with 2.80. <strong><em>Money  Morning</em></strong> readers may recognize them as member of the &#8220;<a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BRIC" onclick="s_objectID=">BRIC</a>&#8221; nations &#8211; a term coined by  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=gs&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="gs&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">GS</a>)  in 2003 identifying rapidly growing emerging economies (Brazil, Russia, India,  China). <strong>[For a complete listing of the PEG ratios of the respective  countries, please see the chart below.]</strong></p>
<p>Rounding out the top six are Malaysia (2.37) and South Korea  (2.66), the latter of which is another investing favorite of both <strong><em>Money  Morning</em></strong> and <a href="http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Warren_buffet" onclick="s_objectID=">Warren  Buffett</a>, chairman of Berkshire Hathaway Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABRK.A" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3ABRK.A_1">BRK.A</a>, <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3ABRK.B" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3ABRK.B_1">BRK.B</a>).</p>
<p>The United States, on the other hand, comes in near the  bottom with an estimated PEG ratio for 2008 of 11.39.</p>
<p>When using the calculations to make investment picks, it’s important to remember that both the P/E ratio and the 2008 GDP growth are only estimates. Still, it’s easy to see how fast-growing economies have the leg up on more mature markets such as Japan and the United States.</p>
<h4>How to Play the PEG for Profits</h4>
<p>One of the easiest ways for U.S. investors to cash in on a foreign country’s expected stock market growth is with an American-listed exchange-traded fund (ETF) or exchange-traded note (ETN) that mirrors a foreign stock market index.</p>
<p>For the BRICs, you could try the iShares MSCI Brazil Index (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=ewz&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="ewz&amp;hl=en_1">EWZ</a>), the Market  Vector Russia ETF Trust (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=rsx" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="rsx_1">RSX</a>),  the Barclays IPath India Index ETN (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=inp" onclick="s_objectID=" q?s="inp_1">INP</a>),  or the iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE%3AFXI" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE%3AFXI_1">FXI</a>).</p>
<p>If you prefer to stick to individual securities:</p>
<p><strong><u>Russia</u>: </strong>OAO Gazprom (OTC: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=OTC%3AOGZPY" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="OTC%3AOGZPY_1">OGZPY</a>), the  state-owned natural gas monopoly with ambitions to control Western Europe’s gas  supplies.</p>
<p>Lukoil (OTC: <a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LUKOY.PK&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="LUKOY.PK&amp;hl=en_1">LUKOY</a>), the  other obvious Russian heavyweight, is the largest state-controlled oil company.</p>
<p><strong><u>China</u>: </strong>A terrific<strong> </strong>way to play China is  with the Region Opportunity Fund (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=Uscox&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="Uscox&amp;hl=en_1">USCOX</a>), a mutual  fund run by San Antonio-based U.S. Global Investors Inc. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=grow&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="grow&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">GROW</a>). Indeed, U.S. Global, itself, is a pretty good play on international growth. It manages some of the best emerging-market funds, and natural-resources funds, in the business. As global growth fuels global investments &#8211; and it will &#8211; U.S. global will see more money pour into its funds, boosting the management fees it collects, as well as its profits and stock price.</p>
<p><strong><u>India</u>:</strong> One of India’s titans is Tata Motors  Ltd. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:TTM" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="NYSE:TTM_1">TTM</a>), which recently sealed both ends of the consumer automotive spectrum with its forthcoming $2,500 Nano and its recent $2.3 billion acquisition of the Jaguar and Land Rover brands.</p>
<p>Another is option could be the pharmaceutical company Dr. Reddy’s  Laboratories Ltd. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=RDy&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="RDy&amp;hl=en_1">RDY</a>). As many U.S. pharmaceutical patents expire in the next five years, this major generic-drugs manufacturer can expect to benefit.</p>
<p><strong><u>South Korea</u>:</strong> Back in October 2007, Buffett  took a 4% stake in this country’s Number One steelmaker, POSCO Ltd. (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pkx&amp;hl=en" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="pkx&amp;hl=en_1">PKX</a>). Studies have  shown that <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/01/28/how-buying-like-warren-buffett-can-boost-your-portfolio-profits/" onclick="s_objectID=">following  Buffett’s investment moves, even months after the fact can be the pathway to  profits</a>.</p>
<p><strong><u>Brazil</u>: </strong>Companhia Vale do Rio Doce, now  referred to only as Vale (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=rio&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="rio&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">RIO</a>), is an iron-ore company with ancillary operations in gold, nickel, copper and other metals. It’s one of the true global blue chips, with a market capitalization of almost $200 billion.</p>
<p>Another Brazilian firm worth a look is Petrobras (<a href="http://finance.google.com/finance?q=pbr&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den" onclick="s_objectID=" finance?q="pbr&amp;hl=en&amp;meta=hl%3Den_1">PBR</a>). It’s one of the few emerging market oil companies with access to modern technology &#8211; and the willingness to work with the oil majors.</p>
<p>Source: <a href="http://www.moneymorning.com/2008/06/02/popular-stock-indicator-tells-investors-to-hit-the-brics/"> Popular Stock Indicator Tells Investors to Hit the BRICs </a></p>
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