Now that the dust has cleared, it appears that the China plan is not entirely as big as advertised — further diminishing the halo effect on the global economy.

When originally unveiled, China’s $600-billion plan proposed a massive infrastructure build-out through 2010 to help create jobs and shift the country away from it’s over-reliance on exports, which have suffered from the global recession.

The announcement was framed as a brand-new initiative. The blueprint China laid out before the world included projects for low-cost housing, airports, roads, highways and aid to farmers. Pundits saw the investment by China as an overnight boom for raw materials, although we took a wait-and-see approach.

Asian stock markets surged on news. Japan’s Nikkei index jumped 5.8% while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index gained 3.5%. In China, the Shanghai Composite index jumped 7.3%.

So much for the herd…

Because it now seems that many of the projects China had included as part of the $600 stimulus were already in the works prior to the big announcement. So what had initially appeared as a grand stimulus turned out to be a staged PR event.

Reuters recently characterized the stimulus package as comprised of “old budget commitments, double-counting and empty promises. It was thus mainly propaganda, to convince China’s own people and the outside world that the government was serious about stimulating demand at home.”

Reuters quoted Shanghai Citigroup Ken Peng as saying, “The stimulus package is big, but it’s actually a combination of a lot of things that have already been announced.”

A glaring example of China’s PR machine in action is that the $600-billion package included nearly $3 billion that Beijing had already earmarked for rebuilding in Sichuan province and other regions devastated by the earthquake earlier this year.

The stimulus plan also called for some $292 billion on the railway system. But Ting Lu, a Merrill Lynch analyst, reported that most of it had been previously allocated. He pegged the real number at $58 billion of new funds — still a sizeable number but far short of what China led the world to believe.

Given China’s lack of transparency, the ultimate net number of new funding will be almost impossible to ferret out. But in the end, it becomes increasingly apparent that Beijing is playing a shell game with investors. You can try to figure out where the pea is, or put your money someplace else.

At the New York close on Friday, the blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average Index had plunged 312.62 points (-3.6%), to trade at 8,378.63. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite Index shed 51.88 points (-3.23%), to reach 1,562.03. And the broader Standard & Poor’s 500 Index dropped 31.45 points (-3.46%), to hit 876.66.

“It’s a bear market on steroids,” David King, a money manager at Putnam Investments, who helps manage about $137 billion, told Bloomberg Television. “It’s very accelerated by the pace of financial markets today.”

Prior to the New York opening bell, pre-market traded futures for all three major U.S. indices fell their maximum allowed daily limit, causing safety measures to kick in and halt futures trading until the market’s open. Dow futures crashed 550 points, or 6.27%, to 8,224. The S&P 500’s futures index plunged 60 points, or 6.56%, to 855.20, and Nasdaq futures skidded 85 points, or 6.20%, to 1,175.75.

But despite the bleak picture futures painted, the U.S. markets recovered from the day’s deeper lows to close higher than originally indicated.

Commodities tumbled on fears of demand destruction from weak economic growth. Gold traded down to $681.00 an ounce from an opening level of $713.30. Oil also declined despite production cuts from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). [For a related story in Money Morning on OPEC’s production cut, please click here.]

“Selling is across all asset classes,” Robin Bhar, a commodities analyst at Calyon in London, told Bloomberg News. “A month ago we were on the edge of a cliff and now we’re in freefall.”

In overseas markets, Japan’s Nikkei Index had an 811.90-point decline to close at 7,649.08, its lowest level in over five years. Hong Kong’s blue-chip Hang Seng Index plummeted 1,142.11 points to close at 12,618.40, its lowest level since August 2004.

“The market is pretty desperate and at a loss. Four days running of big losses, though the turnover is quite low,” Howard Gorges, vice chairman South China Securities, told Reuters, speaking of the Hong Kong markets. The Hang Seng Index has dropped 55% so far this year.

“People are just standing aside. These are dangerous markets to play around with. That’s the main reason for getting into cash,” Gorges said.

In Europe, major indices sunk on news that the United Kingdom’s gross domestic product contracted more than expected with a decline of 0.5% in the third quarter.

“We are obviously not sure exactly how this whole situation will develop. We’ve had some quite deep and severe recessions in the UK before, and hopefully we can avoid that sort of situation in the current circumstances, but the risks of that have increased,” Andrew Sentance, a member of the Bank of England’s rate-setting monetary policy committee, told BBC Radio Leeds.

The FTSEurofirst 300 Index of blue-chip European shares skidded 4.9% to close at 829.73 points, its lowest closing level since May 2003, Reuters reported.

The Paris-based CAC40, London’s FTSE 100, Madrid’s IBEX 35 and the Frankfurt-based DAX all posted triple-digit losses.

At the New York close, the dollar had gained ground against the euro [up 2.46%] and the pound sterling [up 2.02%], but lost ground against the yen [down 2.94%].

Source: Global Sell-Off Takes a Toll on U.S. Equities

From November through March U.S. stocks (and most global equity markets) suffered a string of five-straight monthly declines. That’s a very rare occurrence that has only happened on a handful of occasions in the past 40 years.

Sure enough, April saw a sharp reversal of the five-month downtrend. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had fallen over 11% at the March low. But the Dow got up off the mat in April and rose 4.5%. The Dow wasn’t alone. In fact, international stock markets pulled off much more dramatic reversals.

Japan is perhaps the most striking turnaround. I’ve been bullish on Japan since last year… and had been proven way too early through March. But Japan rallied strongly last month – soaring 11% in April alone – it’s biggest single-month gain since 1995! In spite of this rally, Japan remains one of the world’s most undervalued major markets, but now it looks like global investors are catching on.

Hong Kong, another one of my favorite overseas markets, also pulled off a major turnaround in April. After dropping -18% in the first quarter of 2008, the Hang Seng Index jumped 13% last month.

Taiwan, another favorite, rose 4% in April. Mainland China bounced back too – 6.3% last month. But Shanghai shares still have lots of “heavy lifting” ahead -they’re still down 30% year to date.

Perhaps the biggest surprise was commodities. Gold and crude oil rallied pretty much in tandem through the end of 2007 and early 2008. Oil was up another 12% in April – adding to gains of nearly 20% year to date.

The yellow metal however declined nearly 6% last month. That’s gold’s second consecutive monthly decline – perhaps this precious metal will go for five in a row too!

Of course last month’s market action could prove very fleeting indeed. And I doubt that the ultimate “bottom” of this bear market has yet been reached. However, with such broad-based strength in equity markets around the world, we may be in for a decent rally that has some legs.

On Wednesday, the Fed cut rates again as I expected to 2%. The financial media seems convinced that the Fed intends to “pause” sometime soon. That has helped the beleaguered U.S. dollar (talk about a bear market!) to stabilize somewhat.

If the buck can stage a more convincing reversal of fortune at this point, I would expect commodities to correct further, while global stocks (particularly emerging markets) should continue to get a boost. Stay tuned…MIKE BURNICK, Senior Editor & Global Markets Analyst