This from Money Morning:

Between September 2007 and June 2008, oil prices doubled, gold rose 30% and commodities, in general, advanced by a similar percentage.

So why, six months later, when prices have fallen back below last year’s levels, does everybody think they won’t rise again? The difficulties of extraction haven’t gone away, nor have the prospects of increasing consumption in the faster-growing emerging markets such as China. Yes, the prices of commodities are severely affected by marginal moves in supply and demand, but this is ridiculous!

Rest assured, commodities prices will rebound in the New Year. The reasons will soon become quite clear.

The decline in commodities prices since the summer is broad-based. The Reuters Continuous Commodities Index traded recently at 341, down 25% from a year earlier and off about 45% from its June high. At $48 a barrel, oil is trading at less than one-third of its June high. And gold, which appreciated less than other commodities in the spring, is still down 18% from the $1,000-per-ounce level it reached earlier this year.

Conventional wisdom blames the decline in commodity prices squarely on the global recession. Since the rise in demand from emerging markets – particularly the huge consumption bases of China and India – had caused the previous run-up, it seems natural that the absence of that demand growth would cause prices to decline. After all, that happened in 1982, when a deep recession in the United States spread to a number of other countries. Oil prices plunged from $40 a barrel to a mere $10, breaking the back of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) in the process.

This time around, however, the math doesn’t seem to work. For one thing, the world as a whole is by no means locked into recession. We in the rich countries think of our economies as spiraling into a deep decline, but the reality is that we may only be witnessing a secular shift caused by the narrowing of income differentials between rich and poor countries as globalization proceeds.

In countries such as China, India and Brazil – three of the four so-called “BRIC” economies – growth has slowed and many are suffering imbalances in their financial structures, but there is little sign of actual decline in any of them. Indeed, if China’s recently announced $590 billion infrastructure investment serves to redirect growth toward domestic consumers, it is possible that the demand for oil and other commodities there may show very little dip at all; it takes a great deal of iron ore and other commodities to produce $100 billion worth of railroads, for example, one of China’s stated objectives.

On the supply side, OPEC was full of spare capacity in the 1980s. South Africa and the Soviet Union were still expanding gold production, and the explorations of the 1970s had produced surpluses of many other commodities. But in the past two and a half decades, things have changed.

Oil, for example, remains in short supply. Both deep offshore fields – like those discovered by Petroleo Brasileiro SA, or Petrobras (ADR: PBR), in the Tupi Complex – and the tar sands (like the ones in Canada and Venezuela), are economically unfeasible with oil trading at such a low price. And, if prices remain low, the expansion and exploration of new sources of production will be curtailed even further.

More importantly, though, supply and demand is only one of the reasons commodity prices rise and fall. What really spurred the big price rise in commodities that took place earlier this year was the explosion in the money supply throughout the world.

Money supply, unlike demand, is something that hasn’t evaporated with the economic downturn. In fact, it has actually ramped up. Even though money markets have become illiquid, central banks throughout the world are forcing down interest rates and pumping out liquidity by every means they can think of [Indeed, the policymaking arm of the U.S. Federal Reserve meets today (Tuesday), and is expected to cut rates yet again. For a related story, click here].

Meanwhile, governments everywhere (except Germany) are implementing massive “stimulus packages” that will destabilize budgets and insert huge additional demand into the global economy. Since the governments will have to borrow the money to finance those stimulus packages – and the budget deficits that are inevitable in an economic downturn – central banks will be compelled to pump out even more money to accommodate all the increased debt; otherwise, interest rates would go through the roof and finance for the private sector would become unobtainable, hardly the object of this whole costly exercise.

The future is thus one of rapidly increasing inflation, combined with a healthy recovery in global demand, at least in the emerging markets, as Europe and the United States may suffer deep recessions this time around.

To take advantage of this likely trend, I would recommend a broad portfolio of shares whose prices are closely linked to the prices of major commodities. Among those you might consider:

• Vale (ADR:RIO): As a gigantic Brazilian iron ore producer, Vale will benefit enormously from China’s new infrastructure program (Think of all those steel rails!). The stock is currently trading at just over $12 a share with a Price/Earnings ratio (P/E) of about 7.0 and a yield of slightly more than 1.0%.

• Rio Tinto PLC (ADR:RTP): Another huge mining conglomerate, the long-and-bloody attempted takeover of Rio Tinto by BHP-Billiton Ltd. (ADR: BHP) recently fell apart. At $93, Rio Tinto shares have a yield of 5.8% and a prospective P/E of about 3.0. The company is overleveraged, so somewhat dangerous, but you’d be getting paid for the risk.

• Suncor Energy Inc. (NYSE:SU): The largest pure player in the Canada’s Athabasca tar sands, Suncor’s marginal cost of production from operating facilities is about $30 per barrel and the cost of opening new facilities is about $60 per barrel. It’s currently trading with a P/E of 8.0 but has a yield of less than 1.0%, as it needs all its cash.

• SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD)exchange-traded fund (ETF): The largest ETF that invests in gold, GLD has more than 750 tons of the “yellow metal” held in trust.

Yanzhou Coal Mining Co. (ADR:YZC): China’s largest coal miner, Yanzhou has a P/E of 4.0, yields 3.5% and enjoys low costs – not to mention a super-close proximity to the gigantic market that is China.

Source: Five Ways to Profit from the New Year Rebound in Commodity Prices

This from The Daily Reckoning:

Global financial markets are acting as though the world is about to implode. Over the past four months, the investment community has dumped all assets; regardless of their underlying economic fundamentals. We have seen unbelievable wealth destruction on a global scale and trillions of dollars have evaporated and returned to monetary heaven.

The rate of decline has been astonishing and in the past twelve months, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (Dow) has seen its worst one-year performance – ever! It is interesting to observe that the Dow’s recent plunge has been even worse than the 1929 decline which preceded the Great Depression of the 1930’s (Figure 1). So, are we really witnessing the end of the world as we know it?

Regardless of the Armageddon fears prevalent today, I would argue that this slump may turn out to be a fantastic buying opportunity for the patient, long-term investor.

Now, the mainstream media seems to be convinced that our planet is headed into a permanent global depression and investor-sentiment certainly reflects this thought process. The same cheerleaders who, only a few months ago, were gleefully shouting about the emergence of a new global economy are now forecasting eternal disaster. Furthermore, investors are liquidating all assets as images of their children living in shanty towns fill their fearful minds. ‘Demand destruction’ and ‘de-leveraging’ have replaced ‘liquidity’ and ‘global growth’ as the new buzz-words. Stocks are down significantly from the highs, corporate bonds have taken a beating and even commodities (including precious metals) have joined the bear parade. And those who naively bought structured products from private banks have seen total losses. So, where do we go from here?

The best way to begin is by reiterating that global markets are now extremely oversold and undervalued, hence attractive. This may sound counter-intuitive but it is vital to understand that a decline of 40% in US stocks (and even more in some countries) has set the stage for fantastic long-term gains. If my assessment proves to be correct, investors who buy the unimpaired sectors today should make a fortune over the coming decade.

Remember, the best time to buy is when everyone is despondently selling. As John Templeton (founder of Templeton Funds) often said, “bull-markets are born on pessimism, grow on scepticism, mature on optimism and due on euphoria”. And you can be sure that the investment community is feeling extremely pessimistic and fearful today.

At present, a lot of ‘gloom and doom’ and ‘deflation’ chatter is doing the rounds in the mainstream media. The recent selling panic is frequently being described at the worst crisis since the Great Depression. However, this hype does not imply that the economic outlook is similar to the 1930’s. One of the biggest reasons why the Great Depression occurred was due to the failure or inability of the money-supply to expand in line with the need for this money.

Furthermore, the failure of roughly 5,000 banks did not help the situation either as millions of Americans lost their savings! In the current situation, however, various central banks and governments are throwing trillions of dollars into the monetary system and all bank deposits have been guaranteed. And if need be, the authorities will print money until the world runs out of trees. So, in my view, a prolonged deflationary phase or a global depression is not likely to happen.

The recent sharp declines in the markets can be attributed to the fact that two separate negative events caught the public’s attention at roughly the same time – depth of the financial crisis and fears of a US recession. Now, as far as the first issue is concerned, it is my belief that the worst is behind us. For sure, we may hear of sporadic bank busts in the months ahead, but the recent government guarantees prevented a total collapse of the banking system. For the record, I do not agree with the recent bail-outs because they are immoral and are going to cause huge inflation in the future. However, we all have to deal with reality and for now, it seems that the credit markets are starting to function again.

Our research reveals that currently US$3.5 trillion is sitting on the sidelines, waiting to be invested. And when investors deploy this cash into the markets, it will flow towards sectors which have been unharmed in this financial crisis. Now, I do not know about you, but apart from natural resources (where supply and demand imbalances persist) and industrials (which may benefit from massive government-sponsored infrastructure projects), I cannot find any other sector which has strong fundamentals. Housing faces severe over-supply, autos are struggling, banks will suffer due to over-regulation and consumer discretionary stocks will also fare poorly as the over-stretched public in the West tightens its belts.

The one sector of the economy which remains in excellent condition is commodities. Demand is holding firm, supplies of key resources are still tight and the ongoing credit crisis will only delay many projects which were previously meant to come online. This will create additional supply shortages in the future, thereby leading to much higher prices.

As far as precious metals are concerned, it is worth remembering that our world’s financial system has been hijacked by money-printers. Whether it is the Federal Reserve, Bank of England or the European Central Bank – they are all creating money ‘out of thin air’ and inflating the supply of paper currencies.

As this rampant inflation continues, what is astonishing though is that so many investors are being hoodwinked into believing that our world faces a genuine deflationary bust. These days, opinion is divided as to whether we will witness continuing inflation or gut-wrenching deflation. In my view, this discussion is absurd and deflation (or a contraction in the supply of money) is out of the question.

Banks are in the business of lending money and debt creation is essential for their very survival and prosperity. So, you can be sure that the modern-day money lenders will find a new way to further expand the supply of money and debt.

Whilst paper currencies (cash) regained some purchasing power in the past few months due to forced liquidation in the asset markets, there is no chance that they will maintain their value over the medium to long-term. History is littered with numerous paper currencies which became totally worthless and I suspect many of the current ones will also disappear. In fact, a remarkable study confirms that only 23% of paper currencies ever issued have survived the test of time! The vast majority were destroyed due to hyperinflation and are no longer in circulation.

Accordingly, I would urge investors to sit tight with their positions in hard assets (precious metals, energy and agriculture) and add more capital at such depressed levels. Under the best-case scenario, global markets bottomed out over the past two months and even if they did not, at the very least, we should get a multi-month rally in commodities and related stocks.

Source: The End of the World…Or the Right Time to Buy?

This from Sovereign Society:

The time to start building fresh positions in oil, gold, silver and TIPs has arrived. Even distressed real estate should be accumulated if credit can be secured.

Over the next 6-12 months the United States, Europeans, Japanese and Chinese will eventually arrest deflation. And long before that materializes, hard assets will begin a major reversal following months of crippling losses.

Since peaking in July, the entire gamut of inflation assets has collapsed amid a growing threat of deflation or an environment of accelerated price declines. The last deflation in the United States occurred in the 1930s, purging household balance sheets, corporations, states, municipalities and even the government following two New Deals.

Thus far, U.S. CPI or the consumer price index has not turned negative year-over-year. Yet as oil prices continue to lose altitude and other commodities have been crushed, input costs and price pressures continue to decline dramatically since October. The only major component of CPI that continues to post modest year-over-year gains is wages. And with unemployment now rising aggressively this quarter it’s highly likely wage demands will also come to a screeching halt.

Plunging Bond Yields Discount Danger

In the span of just six months, foreign currencies (except the yen), commodities, stocks, non-Treasury debt, real estate and art have all declined sharply in value in the worst panic-related sell-off in decades. More than $10 trillion dollars’ worth of asset value has been lost worldwide in 2008.

What’s working since July? U.S. Treasury bonds and the U.S. dollar as investors scramble for safety and liquidity.

On December 5, 30-day and 60-day T-bills yielded just 0.01% – the lowest since the 1930s while the benchmark 10-year T-bond traded below 2.55% – its lowest yield since Eisenhower was president in 1955. Even 30-year bonds have surged as the yield recently dropped below 3% for the first time in more than four decades.

The market is now pricing a severe recession and – possibly – another Great Depression. Despite a series of formidable regular market interventions by central banks since August 2007, the credit crisis is still alive and kicking. The authorities have not won the battle …at least not yet.

Heightened inter-bank lending rates, soaring credit default swaps for sovereign government debt and plunging Treasury yields all confirm that the primary trend is still deflation.

To be sure, credit markets worldwide have improved markedly since the dark days of early October. Investment-grade corporate debt is rallying, commercial-paper is flowing again and companies are starting to issue debt once more – but only the highest and most liquid of companies. For the most part, banks are still hoarding cash and borrowers can’t obtain credit.

The real economy is now feeling the bite as consumption falls off a cliff, foreclosures soar and the unemployment rate surges higher. These primary trends are deflationary as broad consumption is severely curtailed, with consumers preparing for the worst economy since 1981 and rebuilding devastated household balance sheets.

But at some point over the next 12 months, the market might transition from outright deflation or negative consumer prices to some sort of disinflation or at least an environment of stable prices. That’s when inflation assets should start rallying again.

Inflate or Die: The Name of the Game in 2009

The battle now being waged by global central banks, including the Federal Reserve is an outright attack on deflation. Through the massive expansion of credit, the Fed and her overseas colleagues are on course to print money like there’s no tomorrow to finance bulging fiscal spending plans, bailouts, tax cuts and anything else that helps to alleviate economic stress.

Earlier in November, the Fed announced it would target “quantitative easing” and “monetization,” unorthodox monetary policy tools rarely or never used in the post-WW II era.

Without getting too technical, the term “quantitative easing” means the Fed will act as the buyer of last resort to monetize Treasury debt and other government agency paper in an attempt to bring interest rates down. Quantitative easing aims to flood the financial system with liquidity and absorb excess cash through monetization or purchasing of government securities.

Through monetary policy, the Fed controls short-term lending rates but cannot influence long-term rates that are largely set by the markets; the Fed now hopes it can influence long-term rates through quantitative easing. And since its announcement two weeks ago, long-term fixed mortgage rates have declined sharply.

These and other open market operations directed by the Fed and Treasury will eventually arrest the broad-based deflation engulfing asset prices. It will take time. Inflation is the desired goal and is the preferred evil to deflation, a monetary phenomenon that threatens to destroy or seriously compromise the financial system. Policy-makers have studied the Great Depression, including Fed Chairman Bernanke, and the consequences of failed central bank and government intervention in times of severe economic duress are unthinkable.

Ravenous Monetary Expansion

According to Federal Reserve Board data, the Fed is now embarking on a spectacular expansion of credit unseen in the history of modern financial markets.

The total amount of Federal Reserve bank credit has increased from $800 billion dollars to $2.2 trillion dollars (or from 6% to 15% of gross domestic product) as the central bank expands its various liquidity facilities in an attempt to preserve normal functioning of the financial system.

The Fed’s ongoing operations to arrest falling prices are targeted namely at housing – the epicenter of this financial crisis. It is highly unlikely that the United States economy will bottom until housing prices find a floor. Quantitative easing hopes to stabilize this market.

Buy Gold Now

Relative to other assets in 2008, gold prices have declined far less. The ongoing liquidity squeeze has forced investors to dump assets, including gold to raise dollars. I suspect this short-term phenomenon will end in 2009 once the ongoing panic subsides and credit markets become largely functional again.

Gold should be accumulated now ahead of market stabilization. As the financial system gradually comes back to life over the next several months or sooner, the dollar should commence another period of weakness; there will be little incentive to hold dollars with short-term rates at or close to zero percent. The Fed will be in no hurry to raise lending rates.

Still, the Japanese experience in the 1990s warns investors of the travails of long-term deflation.

The Japanese, unlike the United States, only started to seriously attack falling prices in the economy in 1998 through massive fiscal spending. In contrast, the U.S. is already throwing everything at the crisis after just 17 months.

I expect the United States to print its way out of misery and, over time, and conquer deflation. But the cost will be humungous and at the expense of the dollar, U.S. financial hegemony and calls for a new monetary system anchored by gold.

It’s literally “inflate or die” for global central banks. Inflation will win.

Source:  Inflation on “Sale” as Deflation Dominates Global Markets

This from Money Morning:

In November 2002, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke cracked wise in his now infamous ‘Helicopter Theory’ speech. When it came time to pay our debts back, he said, we could simply fire up the printing press. The world would be forced to accept our paper in lieu of those debts. If need be, the Fed “could drop dollars from helicopters” in order to get the money into circulation.

Unfortunately, traders around the globe didn’t react kindly to his comments: Since his speech, the dollar has declined over 40% against a basket of world currencies.

It’s likely we’ll continue to see a steady downward trend in the dollar, occasionally punctuate by rallies as traders take profits. And it’s unlikely our government will be able to do anything soon to stop it.

Here’s why…

The Fed’s in a box

There are a number of factors weighing on or bouying the dollar. But Bernanke is the 300-pound gorilla in the current chess game – and his latest moves seem destined to keep the dollar in the doldrums.

The Federal Reserve, which rode boldly to the rescue in past economic slumps, can’t do much this time around. Cutting interest rates, as the Fed has been doing for the last year to spur economic growth, hurts the dollar. On the other hand, raising interest rates to help the dollar would probably send the economy into a tailspin.

Then there’s the economic facts of life…

The U.S. lives beyond its means, buying more than it sells. As a net debtor nation, we’re running a huge trade deficit with the rest of the world, about $700 billion annually.

That’s financed by foreign money inflows – mostly by foreign investors buying U.S. Treasury bonds. That leaves them holding an ever-ballooning number of U.S. dollars. Altogether, they now hold $3 trillion in government debts and liabilities.

The subprime crisis, a deteriorating stock market and consumer malaise has accelerated the greenback’s slide. The overall impact, is that the global market now takes a more cautious view of the relative strength of both the U.S. economy and the dollar.

The solution, according to the currency markets, is for the dollar to sink. That would cause U.S. exports to rise as U.S. goods get cheaper for overseas buyers. In turn, U.S. imports would fall as the declining greenback makes foreign goods more expensive for U.S. consumers and businesses.

However, there’s a large fly in the ointment. Having foreigners buy T-bonds inflates the money supply even as it leads to higher economic output and rising inflation.

Inflation rears its ugly head

The slowing economy has been a major concern for the Federal Reserve, prompting the central bank to make a series of interest rate cuts since last September. But the Fed has to figure out how to balance the risk of inflation against the risk of further weakness in the economy.

“Unacceptably high headline inflation has heightened the FOMC’s concerns about inflation, but continuing strains in the financial markets and evidence of spreading economic softness will force the FOMC to toe a fine line between the two risks,” David Resler, chief economist at Nomura Securities, wrote in a note to clients.

But, according to the government’s numbers, consumer inflation rose 0.8% in June, the biggest monthly increase since February 1981.

That figure is artificially low because drastic changes have been made in how it’s calculated. Food and energy are no longer even taken into account. In fact, using Consumer Price Index (CPI) calculations in effect during Clinton’s presidency, the CPI would be about 6% now.

A number like that sends shivers through the Fed’s bones. You see, once inflation has entrenched itself in an economy, getting it back under control is like pulling teeth.

But they really don’t want to talk about the “I” word.

The Federal Reserve stopped reporting the M3 value, the U.S. money supply, in 2006. Best guess is it’s increasing at about a 10% rate. But about $1.5 trillion of additional ‘money’ in bank bailouts and credit will be put into the financial system in 2008 alone.

When that much paper money is printed or electronically pumped into the credit markets you can bet your bottom dollar (excuse the pun) inflation will follow.

And that puts the main engine of the American economy, the consumer, on the defensive.

Consumers pull back

Make no mistake, consumer spending makes up about 70% of the U.S. economy. But with the foreclosure storm in full fury, and the credit crunch tightening the screws, the consumer is pulling in the reins.

So naturally, the feds are stepping up to the plate. Federal government spending rose at a real rate of 6.7% in the last quarter, while personal consumption rose only 1.5%.

Meanwhile, consumer spending is not even keeping up with income. The government recently handed out billions in tax rebates, which boosted incomes by 4% – more than twice the level of consumer spending increases.

So where does that leave the Fed? For now, in between a rock and hard place.

Any solution that would strengthen the dollar would probably involve sharply raising interest rates, increase the rate of savings, and curtail private consumption.

Don’t hold your breath waiting for those kinds of measures to come to your neighborhood.

No reason to panic…yet

Conventional wisdom has long held that foreigners would continue to support the dollar. After all, what could replace it?

But that argument may no longer hold water.

China with its $1.6 trillion, and other countries with huge reserves, are looking elsewhere to invest. Many governments, especially in the Middle East, have created sovereign wealth funds not limited to U.S. investments.

They’ve been plowing their winnings into foreign telecommunications companies, airlines and financial companies. China and India are spending their increasingly valuable currency on importing food, energy and other resources,

But despite the gnashing of teeth by foreign central banks, there’s scant evidence that they’re abandoning the dollar even as it tests new lows. The International Monetary Fund’s numbers show a slow shift from dollars into euros, with the dollar’s share falling to 63% of all global reserves in 2007, from 65% in 2006.

That doesn’t add up to a willy-nilly stampede out of dollars. Instead, look for a gradual decline in the dollar to continue as developing markets rake in more of the world’s cash.

What to do now…

Hedge with real assets: The inflationary nature of this environment means you should look to own the stocks of companies that produce goods, not services. Companies that own gold, ferrous metals and iron mines, for instance.

Gold isn’t reliant on a government promise to maintain the value of any currency. And while gold is up over 150% in the last 18 months alone, we think it still has room to run.

Martin Hutchinson, an analyst here at Money Morning, thinks you might want to consider

streetTRACKS Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD), an exchange traded fund (ETF). You might also look at Market Vectors Gold Miners (NYSE:GDX), which tracks the major players in the field.

Go Global: The current meltdown in the U.S. credit markets couldn’t have come at a worse time. Huge blowouts in dollar-denominated vehicles severely eroded the competitive edge U.S. dollar investments had over developing markets. That means foreign central banks will look to developing markets for the returns they used to get from U.S. assets.

Four places in particular stand to benefit. The BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India and China) all have burgeoning economies and significant natural resources.

Horacio Marquez, another of our analysts, likes Petroleo Brasileiro SA (NYSE:PBR), Brazil’s state-owned oil exploration company recently discovered the Tupi oil field, the second-largest discovery in 20 years. It also boasts top-notch management and leads the world in deep-water drilling technology.

If you’re looking for more safety and diversification, Rio Tinto PLC (NYSE:RTP) could fill the bill. It’s the largest iron ore supplier in the world and just signed lucrative new contracts to feed China’s voracious steel mills.

That gives you a starting place to look for relief from a weakening dollar. But the dollar probably won’t implode in a sudden burst of volatility. There’s simply too much riding on it for that to happen.

Here’s the bottom line – the value of the dollar is largely determined by the confidence investors around the world foresee in the future success of the U.S. economy.

For right now that confidence is flagging and is likely to continue to slowly let the air out of the dollar in the future.

Source: Why the Federal Reserve Can’t Save the Dollar

This from Whiskey & Gunpowder:

Though Citicorp (NYSE:C) is deemed too big to fail, it’s hardly reassuring to know that it’s been allowed to sink its fangs into the Mother Zombie that the U.S. Treasury has become and sucked out a multi-billion dollar dose of embalming fluid so it can go on pretending to be a bank for a while longer.

I employ this somewhat clunky metaphor to point out that the U.S. Government is no more solvent than the financial zombies it is keeping on walking-dead support. And so this serial mummery of weekend bailout schemes is as much of a fraud and a swindle as the algorithm-derived-securities shenanigans that induced the disease of bank zombification in the first place. The main question it raises is whether, eventually, the creation of evermore zombified U.S. dollars will exceed the amount of previously-created U.S. dollars now vanishing into oblivion through compressive debt deflation.

My guess, given the usual time-lag factor, is that the super-inflation snap-back will occur six to eighteen months from now. And the main result of all this will be our inability to buy the imported oil that comprises two-thirds of the oil we require to keep Wal-Mart and Walt Disney World running. At some point, then, in the early months of the Obama administration, we’ll learn that “change” is not a set of mere lifestyle choices but a wrenching transition away from all our familiar and comfortable habits into a stark and rigorous new economic landscape.

The credit economy is dead and the dead credit residue of that dead economy is going where dead things go. It came into the world as “money” and it is going out of this world as a death-dealing disease, and we’re not going to get over this disease until we stop generating additional zombie money out of no productive activity whatsoever. The campaign to sustain the unsustainable is, besides war, the greatest pitfall this society can stumble into. It represents a squandering of our remaining scant resources and can only produce the kind of extreme political disappointment that wrecks nations and leads to major conflicts between them. I don’t know how much Mr. Obama buys into the current adopt-a-zombie program — his Treasury designee Timothy Geithner was apparently in on this weekend’s Citicorp deal — but the President would be wise to steer clear of whatever the walking dead in the Bush corner are still up to.

All the activities based on getting something-for-nothing are dead or dying now, in particular buying houses and cars on credit and so it should not be a surprise that the two major victims are the housing and car industries. Notice, by the way, that these are the two major ingredients of an economy based on building suburban sprawl. That’s over, too. We’re done building it and the stuff we’ve already built is destined to lose both money value and usefulness as the wrenching transition goes forward.

All this obviously begs the question: what kind of economy are we going to live in if the old one is toast? Well, it’s also pretty obvious that it will have to be based on activities productively aimed at keeping human beings alive in an ecology that has a future. Once you grasp this, you will see that there is no reason to despair and more than enough for all of us to do, so we can recover from the zombie nation disease and get on with the next chapter of American history — and I sure hope that Mr. Obama will get with the new program.

To be specific about this new economy, we’re going to have to make things again, and raise things out of the earth, locally, and trade these things for money of some kind that we earn through our own productive activities. Don’t make the mistake of thinking this is optional. The only other option is to go through a violent sociopolitical convulsion. We ought to know from prior examples in world history that this is not a desirable experience. So, to avoid that, we really have to put our shoulders to the wheel and get to work on things that matter, and do it at a scale that is consistent with what the world really has to offer right now, especially in terms of available energy.

In my view — and I know this is controversial — a much larger proportion of the U.S. population will have to be employed in growing the food we eat. There are many ways of arranging this, some more fair than others, and I hope the better angels of our nature steer us in the direction of fairness and justice. The prospects of a devalued dollar imply that we very shortly will not be able to get the all the oil-and-gas based “inputs” that have made petro-agriculture possible the past century. The consequences of this are so unthinkable that we have not been thinking about it. And, of course, the further implications of current land-use allocation, and the property ownership issues entailed, suggests formidable difficulties in re-arranging the farming sector. The sooner we face all this, the better.

As the fiesta of “globalism” (Tom Friedman-style) draws to a close — another consequence of currency problems — we’ll have to figure out how to make things in this country again. We will not be manufacturing things at the scale, or in the manner, we were used to in, say, 1962. We’ll have to do it far more modestly, using much more meager amounts of energy than we did in the past.

My guess is that we will get the electricity for doing this mostly from water. It may actually be too late — from a remaining capital resources point-of-view — to ramp up a new phase of the nuclear power industry (and there are plenty of arguments from the practical and economic to the ethical against it). But we have to hold a public discussion about it, if only to clear the air and get on with other things, namely the new activities of alt. energy. But I would hasten to warn readers (again!) that we’ll probably have to do these things more modestly too (don’t count on giant wind “farms”), and that we are liable to be disappointed by what they can actually provide for us (don’t expect to run Wal-Mart on wind, solar, algae-fuels, etc).

In any case, we’re not going back to a “consumer” economy. We’re heading into a hard work economy in which people derive their pleasures and gratification more traditionally — mainly through the company of their fellow human beings (which is saying a lot, for those of you who have forgotten what that’s about). Our current investments in “education” — i.e. training people to become marketing executives for chain stores — will delude Americans for a while about what kind of work is really available. But before long, the younger adults will realize that there are enormous opportunities for them in a new and very different economy.

We will still have commerce — even if it’s not the K-Mart blue-light-special variety — and the coming generation will have to rebuild all the local, multi-layered networks of commercial inter-dependency that were destroyed by the rise of the chain stores. In short, get ready for local business. It will surely be part-and-parcel of our local food-growing and manufacturing activities.

I hate to keep harping on this — but since nobody else is really talking about it, at least in the organs of public discussion, the job is left to me — we have to get cracking on the revival of the railroad system in this country, if we expect to remain a united country. This is such a no-brainer that the absence of any talk about it is a prime symptom of the zombie disease that has eaten away our brains.

Automobiles (the way we use them) and airplanes are utterly dependent on liquid hydrocarbon fuels, and you can be certain we’ll have trouble getting them. You can run trains by other means — electricity being state-of-the-art in those parts of the world that do it most successfully. I know that California just voted to create a high-speed rail link between Los Angeles and San Francisco. It’s an optimistic sign, but it shows more than a little techno-grandiose over-reach. High-speed rail would require a mega-expensive re-do of the tracks. We need to scale our ambitions for this more realistically.

California (and every other region of America) would benefit much more from normal-speed trains running every hour on the hour on tracks that already exist than from a mega-expensive, grandiose sci-fi program that might not get built for ten years. The dregs of the Big Three automakers can and should be reorganized to produce the rolling stock for a revived railroad system.

Even amidst the financial carnage underway right now, the public is enjoying a respite from high-priced gasoline, but it is due to be short-lived. As I’ve already said, we are in danger not just of oil prices going way back up again, but of losing access to our supplies from the exporting countries. In other words, we’re just as likely to face shortages as high prices, and soon.

Oil shortages are certain to produce a political freak-out here unless we get our heads screwed on right — and this means that the next President had better prepare quickly for a comprehensive action plan in the face of such an emergency (which has to include a robust public information initiative).

That this meltdown is building straight into the Christmas holidays is one of those accidents of history that leaves one reeling in wonder and nausea. The cable networks better be prepared to bombard the public with round-the-clock showings of It’s a Wonderful Life, because they’re going to need all the moral support they can get as zombies stalk through the silent night, holy night.

Source: Zombie Economics, Part I