You wanna know what is going on? David Rosenberg explains…

First, a historical note…US equities have just come off their best July since 1989. Overall, the market is up over 8% for the year. But if we look backward (after all, hindsight is 20/20), March 1989 also saw a huge run up. It was followed by an even stronger rally in July, during which volume dried up. It appears the same is happening now. What came next in 1989 was a big sell-off in September, followed by an even greater one in October.

Gold added about five bucks to its price from the time that trading began in the Far East Thursday…and the London a.m. gold fix. Then from there, it gave back seven dollars going into the p.m. gold fix…and after that, it gained over eight dollars until half past lunchtime in New York. Then a really serious seller showed up taking nine bucks off the price between then and the close of electronic trading in New York. It was pretty choppy trading all around…and it was obvious that every rally ran into serious resistance. The same could be said for silver.

All was calm in Far East trading on Friday morning. Both metals began to slip a little starting at 3:00 p.m. on Friday afternoon in Hong Kong. This lasted through London trading as well…and by the time the Comex opened, gold was down $10 and silver had slid about 23 cents.

China made headlines around the world this week when it revealed that its foreign reserves had eclipsed the $2 trillion market for the first time, rising by a record $178 billion in the second quarter – thanks to a flood of “hot money” that flowed into the world’s most promising economy.

From the first paragraph of my Saturday commentary…”I don’t know what it is about that [one hour and change] stretch of time between the Sydney close and the London open…but if there is going to be a down day…it starts right there a large percentage of the time.” Any questions? Actually, both gold and silver got sold off the moment that the New York bullion banks opened for business 6:00 p.m. on Sunday night…which is very early Monday morning in Far East trading. Shortly before 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong, gold had almost made it back to unchanged…and silver was actually up a couple of cents when the hammer fell. The bottom for gold came very shortly after the London…

Gold price action on Monday looked similar to Friday’s. The bottom for gold in the Far East came shortly after 3:00 p.m. in Hong Kong…rose until shortly after London opened, declined a couple of bucks…but once the London a.m. gold fix was in [10:30 a.m. in London...5:30 a.m. in New York], gold rose to its high of the day shortly after 11:00 a.m. This high [once again over $940] lasted until 9:00 a.m. in New York, shortly after the Comex opened…then it got taken down eight bucks to its low of the day at 10:00 a.m. in New York…which just happens to be the London p.m. fix…3:00 p.m. over there.

From the Globex open in New York on Wednesday night…and until 3:00 a.m. New York time [4 p.m. Thursday afternoon in Hong Kong trading], gold added about five dollars or so to its price. As I’ve mentioned many times in the past, this is often a time when there are changes in market direction. Thursday was no exception. From there, gold sold off quietly until about 10:40 a.m. in New York. This selling effect was especially pronounced in silver, where it sold off about 32 cents over the same period of time.

Gold hugged the $875 mark all through Far East trading yesterday…and as I mentioned in my rant yesterday…gold got sold off a quick five-spot shortly after London opened. From there, it wandered around the $870 mark until the London p.m. fix [3:00 p.m. London/10:00 a.m. New York], where another eight bucks got shaved off the price. This turned out to be the low of the day…and from there, gold recovered almost all it lost in the prior twelve hours.