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	<title>Contrarian Stock Market Investing News - Featuring Bargain Stocks &#187; Hog Prices</title>
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		<title>High Corn Prices Make Livestock ETFs a Great Profit Play</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/high-corn-prices-make-livestock-etfs-a-great-profit-play/2509</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/high-corn-prices-make-livestock-etfs-a-great-profit-play/2509#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 May 2008 16:00:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Contrarian Profits</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Financial News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Beef Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Beef Producer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CATL.L]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cattle ETF]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Constant Maturity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corn Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Feed Cattle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[food crisis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Grain Fed]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Growth Stock]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hog Farmers]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/high-corn-prices-make-livestock-etfs-a-great-profit-play/2509</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p>A perfect storm is gathering that may make investing in a livestock ETF one of the best profit plays for 2008.</p>
<p>According to a report by <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&#38;sid=axIrowbBQ7fo&#38;refer=exclusive" title="Open a new broswer window to learn more." target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, cattle prices may rise 13% by the end of the year on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Brazil&#8217;s Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros. More from this story:</p>
<blockquote><p>Not since 1996, when corn reached what was then a record $5 a bushel, have cattle been this cheap relative to their primary source of feed. Cattle are the seventh-worst performer of the 26-member UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index in the past year, a time when soybeans, oil and copper jumped to records. After adjusting for inflation, cattle are down 27 percent from their 1988 peak.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s pretty&#8230;</p></blockquote>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A perfect storm is gathering that may make investing in a livestock ETF one of the best profit plays for 2008.</p>
<p>According to a report by <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&amp;sid=axIrowbBQ7fo&amp;refer=exclusive" title="Open a new broswer window to learn more." target="_blank">Bloomberg</a>, cattle prices may rise 13% by the end of the year on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange and Brazil&#8217;s Bolsa de Mercadorias e Futuros. More from this story:</p>
<blockquote><p>Not since 1996, when corn reached what was then a record $5 a bushel, have cattle been this cheap relative to their primary source of feed.<span id="more-2509"></span> Cattle are the seventh-worst performer of the 26-member UBS Bloomberg Constant Maturity Commodity Index in the past year, a time when soybeans, oil and copper jumped to records. After adjusting for inflation, cattle are down 27 percent from their 1988 peak.</p>
<p>&#8220;It&#8217;s pretty certain that we&#8217;ll see a decline in domestic supply in the U.S.,&#8221; Joesley Batista, chief executive officer of JBS SA, the world&#8217;s biggest beef producer, told reporters in Sao Paulo on May 15. &#8220;As a result, we&#8217;ll have price hikes and improved margins.&#8221;</p>
<p>Production also is dropping or failing to keep pace with demand in China, Brazil and the European Union, mostly for grain-fed beef, analysts and government data show.</p>
<p>&#8220;We expect meat prices, especially beef prices, to rise this year,&#8221; said Peter Weeks, chief economist at Meat &amp; Livestock Australia, a trade group in Sydney. &#8220;We&#8217;ve already seen big increases in beef prices in China, Russia, India and throughout Southeast Asia.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p>Now is a great time to <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-commodity-the-bull-market-forgot/2017" title="Read more">invest in a livestock ETF</a>, says Ian Davis in The Growth Stock Wire. And hog prices are set for a similar upswing to cattle prices.</p>
<p>&#8220;Hog farmers are not running charities. When the input costs for hog producers soar, the price of hogs must also rise. By buying hogs, we are piggybacking (excuse the pun) on the uptrend in agriculture and crude oil.</p>
<p>&#8220;So when the uptrend finally begins, how should we play it?</p>
<p>Read on how to profit when this upswing kicks in with this <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-commodity-the-bull-market-forgot/2017" title="Read more.">livestock ETF</a>.</p>
<p>“When the gold price rises, jewelry gets more expensive,&#8221; says <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/author/tom-dyson/"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">Tom Dyson</a> in <a href="http://www.dailywealth.com"  class="alinks_links" onclick="return alinks_click(this);" title=""  style="padding-right: 13px; background: url(http://www.contrarianprofits.com/wp-content/plugins/alinks/images/external.png) center right no-repeat;" rel="external">DailyWealth</a>. It’s the same way with farm animals. <a href="http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/the-largest-freezer-in-the-world/2084" title="Read more.">When the corn price rises, livestock must get more expensive.</a> Corn has doubled in the past 18 months, but livestock prices are still in the same range they were six years ago. They will catch up with corn.”</p>
<p>Tom also recommends that his readers invest in a livestock ETF.</p>
<p>“Two trade in London under the symbols CATL.L and HOGS.L,” says Tom. “They track the Dow Jones AIG sub-indexes for live cattle and hogs.”</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>A Commodity the Bull Market Forgot</title>
		<link>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-commodity-the-bull-market-forgot/2017</link>
		<comments>http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-commodity-the-bull-market-forgot/2017#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 12 May 2008 22:15:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Ian Davis</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Gold Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Commodity Market]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[corn]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Crude Oil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Goldman Sachs Commodity Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hog Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hog Prices]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Natural Resource]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[resources]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[steel]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Dyson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.contrarianprofits.com/articles/a-commodity-the-bull-market-forgot/2017</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Two years ago, making money was simple&#8230;You just grabbed a newspaper, closed your eyes, and  randomly pointed to a commodity&#8230; <em>any </em>commodity.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Crude oil, for example, is up 102% since January 2006 –  impressive, but nothing compared to some of the other commodities&#8230; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The price of steel is up 139% over the same period, and corn has soared 192%. Nearly every natural resource on the planet has climbed to multi-decade highs. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">But a few commodities are being left behind&#8230; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The price of hogs has barely inched its way higher in the last two years. In fact, it&#8217;s risen by a measly 17% since the beginning of 2006. When you adjust for inflation, hogs are only up 9.9%.</font></p>
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<strong>The World&#8217;s Safest&#8230;</strong></font></p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Two years ago, making money was simple&#8230;You just grabbed a newspaper, closed your eyes, and  randomly pointed to a commodity&#8230; <em>any </em>commodity.</font><span id="more-2017"></span></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Crude oil, for example, is up 102% since January 2006 –  impressive, but nothing compared to some of the other commodities&#8230; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The price of steel is up 139% over the same period, and corn has soared 192%. Nearly every natural resource on the planet has climbed to multi-decade highs. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">But a few commodities are being left behind&#8230; </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The price of hogs has barely inched its way higher in the last two years. In fact, it&#8217;s risen by a measly 17% since the beginning of 2006. When you adjust for inflation, hogs are only up 9.9%.</font></p>
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<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">On May 30th, one company will pay out over 90% of its profits to shareholders. In fact, this company has reliably paid its shareholders EVERY month for the past 6 years.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">No wonder <em>Barron&#8217;s</em> has called this investment &#8220;attractive to investors seeking income&#8221;&#8230;</font></p>
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<p></font><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">So the prices of all commodities  – <em>and corn in particular</em> – have  soared, but hogs remain as cheap as ever. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Take a look at this chart&#8230; </font></p>
<table align="center" width="90%">
<tr>
<td>
<p align="center"><strong><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">The Price of Hogs Is Unchanged<br />
Despite Soaring Feed Costs </font></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2"><font size="2"><strong><img src="http://www.growthstockwire.com/images/charts/2008/may/20080512_chart_a.gif" border="0" height="250" width="400" /></strong></font></font></td>
</tr>
</table>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">This chart compares the S&amp;P Goldman Sachs Commodity  Index (GSCI) live-hog index to the S&amp;P GSCI corn spot index. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">As I wrote in March, <a href="http://www.growthstockwire.com/archive/2008/mar/2008_mar_31.asp" target="_blank">corn  makes an attractive investment right now</a> (along with all agriculture).  However, what we should really be on the lookout for is an uptrend in hog  prices. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Hogs, like most commodities, went nowhere for 30 years. In 1977, hogs sold for about 55.5 cents per pound. Today hogs sell for only about 79 cents per pound. That&#8217;s a rise of 42% in 31 years, or an annualized return of 1.1%&#8230; well below the inflation rate.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Why are hogs so cheap? One reason may be that an overabundance of cheap corn for decades led to an oversupply of hogs. According to the Iowa Farm Outlook produced by Iowa State University, corn accounts for about 80% of hog feed. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">But now, the brutal combination of pricey corn, increased energy costs (for processing and shipping), and cheap hogs is wreaking havoc on hog farmers worldwide.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">This trend cannot continue. Hog farmers are not running charities. When the input costs for hog producers soar, the price of hogs must also rise. By buying hogs, we are piggybacking (excuse the pun) on the uptrend in agriculture and crude oil.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">So when the uptrend finally begins, how should we play it?</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Well, as my colleague Tom Dyson pointed out in <a href="http://www.dailywealth.com/archive/2008/may/2008_may_07.asp" target="_blank">this essay</a>, we have a few choices&#8230; You could go into hog farming, for example. Or if you have a futures trading account, you could buy hog futures directly. </font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">An easier option is to buy one of the large hog producers like Tyson, Hormel, or Smithfield Foods. But as Tom pointed out, these aren&#8217;t pure plays on the price of hogs.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Another choice is COW, a fund that tracks AIG&#8217;s livestock index, which is 59.3% cattle and 40.7% hogs. Cows eat boatloads of corn, too, and like hog prices, cattle prices haven&#8217;t nearly matched corn&#8217;s gain.</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Good investing,</font></p>
<p><font face="Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">Ian</font></p>
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