That’s how we signed off our March 4 column. Back then, big base-metal miners, including Lundin Mining, Southern Copper, and Freeport-McMoRan were in one of their worst slumps in recent memory. Investors couldn’t stand the thought of owning their shares. Copper prices are highly dependent on global economic health… and that health was in question.

But as we’ve covered with Home Depot and the Dow Transports, the market is now answering the global economic question with, “You know… things don’t look so bad.”

In addition to the strength in the Depot and the Transports, the price of copper refuses to decline from all-time highs near $4 per pound. These are all signs of economic strength. If this strength continues, expect the prediction above to come true… and expect Freeport-McMoRan (the world’s largest public copper producer) to keep rising.

Source: Expect The World’s Largest Copper Producer to Keep Rising

Net earnings for the biggest home-improvement retailer in the United States decreased to $356 million, or 21 cents a share, down from $1.05 billion, or 53 cents a share, the company earned during the same period last year.

Home Depot’s earnings report soured markets yesterday (Tuesday), which opened lower on the news.

“The home-improvement market remains difficult, but we believe the results show that Home Depot is making early progress in its efforts to refocus,” Chris Horvers, an analyst with The Bear Stearns Cos. Inc. (BSC), wrote in a research note today, Bloomberg reported.

Some of those refocusing efforts include closing doors. Earlier this month, Home Depot announced that it will shut down 15 of its core retail stores in a move that will curb operating costs and affect 1,300 employees. The announcement came 7 1/2 months after company CEO Blake said there were no plans to close any core retail stores.

The stores to be closed include: three in Wisconsin, two in Ohio, two in New Jersey, two in Indiana and one each in Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, New York and Vermont.

The company also plans to delay expansion plans, saving $1 billion over the next three years, Blake said on a conference call.

“Home Depot is bouncing back from the problems that (former CEO Robert) Nardelli passed along,” Burt Flickinger, managing director at New York-based Strategic Resource Group, said in a Bloomberg Television interview.

Flickinger said that Blake “is doing a great job with his team in rebuilding the business for the future.”

Though Home Depot didn’t lower its full-year forecast, Chief Financial Officer Carol Tome said earnings could be at the low end of its forecast.

Such wasn’t the case for its rival, Lowe’s Cos. Inc. (LOW), which after reporting an 18% decline in first-quarter profit, lowered its full-year outlook. The No. 2 home-improvement retailer in the United States said it expects a per-share profit of $1.45 to $1.55 for the year. Previously, its outlook for the fiscal year ending Jan. 30 was pegged at $1.50 to $1.58 a share.

“The external pressures facing our industry will likely persist throughout 2008,” said Chief Executive Robert Niblock on a conference call.

Indeed, Home Depot and Lowe’s have a litany of problems in the near future. Gasoline prices are above $3.75 a gallon. Consumer confidence is at its lowest level in almost 28 years, according to Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment released May 16.

Specific to the housing industry, sales of previously owned homes (which comprises 85% of the housing market) fell again in March, the seventh decline in eight months. Those homebuyers are reliable customers for both Home Depot and Lowe’s, as they often buy their homes with renovations and remodeling in mind.

Source: Home Depot Reports 66% Quarterly Profit Decline, Suffers Storm with Lowe’s

• Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) said yesterday (Thursday) that record crude prices helped its first-quarter profit climb 17% to $10.9 billion – the second-biggest U.S. quarterly corporate profit ever, the Associated Press reported. The company said earnings for the first three months of the year came to $2.03 per share, up from $9.3 billion, or $1.62 per share, a year ago.

• General Motors Corp. (GMC) has taken an undisclosed stake in Mascoma Corp., a renewable energy company that is working to develop ethanol from wood chips, waste paper sludge and switch grass, according to the Associated Press. GM said the new collaboration would further develop non-grain forms of ethanol for more environmentally friendly vehicles.

• The Home Depot Inc. (HD) announced yesterday (Thursday) that it will shut down 15 of its core retail stores in a move that will affect 1,300 employees. The announcement comes 7 1/2 months after its Chief Executive Officer Fred Blake said there were no plans to close any core retail stores. The stores to be closed consist of three in Wisconsin, two in Ohio, two in New Jersey, two in Indiana and one each in Kentucky, Louisiana, Minnesota, North Dakota, New York and Vermont, the Canadian Press reported.

• Ajman, one of the United Arab Emirates, announced that it has partnered with Solidere International to develop a $60 billion new coastal city to be named Al-Zorah, Bloomberg reported. Twelve kilometers of coastline will be set aside for development of officers, shops, schools and hotels.

• Wheat hit a five-month low yesterday, as rising supplies and a resurgent greenback have pushed the soft commodity’s July delivery futures to $7.7835 a bushel, Bloomberg reported. Since hitting a record $13.495 on Feb. 27, wheat prices have fallen 42%.

• Shares of NetManage Inc. (NETM) surged over 67% yesterday (Thursday) after London-based Micro Focus International PLC announced it would buy the California-based software firm for $73.3 million, or $7.20 per share, Reuters reported. NetManage stock gained $2.79 per share to close at $6.94.

• Miami-based Burger King Holdings Inc. (BKC) announced first quarter earnings increased 21%. The fast food burger restaurant said it earned $41 million, or 30 cents per share, an increase from $34 million, or 25 cents per share for the same period last year. Revenue increased to  $594 million from $539 million for the same period in the prior year.

• PharmaNet Development Group Inc. (PDGI) shares plunged yesterday (Thursday) after the company announced a first quarter loss of $10.1 million, or 53 cents per share, due to canceled contracts. The global drug firm also lowered its outlook for full-year 2008. The stock dropped $6.76, a decline of 28%, to close at $17.10.

During the great credit crisis of 2007, Home Depot led America’s “consumer sensitive” stocks off a cliff. Shares in America’s largest home retailer fell from $40 to $25 in just seven months. But despite horrible housing headlines, the Depot has refused to break its January low.

We don’t know if the worst is over for the U.S. economy. But we can look to stocks like Home Depot for clues on how things will turn out. Home Depot lives and dies by America’s ability to spend money on roofing, room additions, and lawn supplies. If folks aren’t spending money on the American dream, we’re in trouble. Unemployment claims are likely to keep rising, and housing numbers are likely to keep sinking. But stocks tend to look six to 12 months ahead and price themselves accordingly. Right now, Home Depot is casting its ballot with the “things aren’t so bad” camp.