This from the WSJ:

Fifty-one percent of the respondents said demand from China and India was the prime factor in soaring energy prices, and 40% said demand was the chief contributor to rising food costs. Constrained supply was cited second most-often; 20% blamed supply problems for higher food prices and 15% for increasing energy prices.

“It’s a combination of demand and supply issues,” said Joseph Carson of AllianceBernstein.

“Soft commodities are now the best-performing sub-set of the commodity bull market,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“The world’s supply is withering. The demand for these precious commodities is booming in emerging markets, while the world’s crop yields are plunging, trade restrictions are suppressing supplies and the bio-fuel craze is stealing crops for energy, rather than food.

Read on to find out about the blizzard of commodities ETFs launched over the last 12 months. These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.

It appears that inflationary concerns are being put on the back burner as the Fed scrambles to fix what it believes to be more pressing economic concerns. But what is this going to do to fix rising costs in energy and other sectors?
More Cuts, More Concerns

Markets exaggerate in both directions. They create bubbles of overvaluation when expectations are high; they create troughs of undervaluation when expectations are low. At the present time, there is a struggle between optimism and pessimism, in which London is a good deal more optimistic than New York or Washington.

The Bank of England has published the latest issue of its twice-yearly Financial Stability Report. The Financial Times leads on the story under the optimistic heading “Bank of England Signals Worst Is Over.” The report’s argument was summarized by John Gieve, the deputy governor of the bank: “While there remain downside risks, the most likely path ahead is that confidence and risk appetite will return gradually in the coming months.” The bank’s optimism extends even to the U.S. housing market.

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Even with a further decline in U.S. house prices, the bank does not expect any default in AAA-rated subprime mortgage-backed securities. That means that those securities are significantly undervalued and that some of the writing down has been much greater than necessary.

This optimistic review was published on the day that the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a further quarter percentage point, to 2%. This was only slightly mitigated by the Fed’s hint that there might be a pause in rate cuts at the next meeting, in June.

There is now a very wide gap between the interest rate philosophy of European central banks, including the Bank of England, and the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Europeans have shown little willingness to counter the credit crunch by large and repeated interest rate cuts. The Fed has continued to follow the much-criticized Alan Greenspan policy of cutting rates early and often.

The pessimistic American view is supported by most New York opinion. Jim O’Neill, the chief economist of Goldman Sachs, says that Britain is “in the eye of the storm of a deleveraging world economy… The U.K. mortgage market is effectively frozen. House prices are going to go through negative changes. It’s going to be a challenge for U.K. policymakers.” This American view has even penetrated to the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, where an American member of the committee, David Blanchflower, has said that a 30% fall in house prices by 2010 is not implausible. Such a fall would be comparable to the fall in house prices in the United States.

My own view is that the Bank of England is probably premature in spotting a turn in the market. For some time yet, banks will be rewriting their capital bases. They will be concerned to reassure themselves and their customers about their own financial situation and will, therefore, remain risk averse and reluctant to lend. The banks have had a very nasty fright, in which it was impossible to value major investments and difficult to be sure of the true solvency position of major banks. That was a global phenomenon.

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It may be true that the worst of the immediate panic has passed, but the mood of caution, even of exaggerated caution, has not. There are also, in the U.K., problems with the falling valuation of commercial property that are as worrying as the concerns about U.K. residential policy. The Bank of England wants to help restore confidence, but it will take time for banks to return to their more relaxed attitude to the lending risk. Indeed, the Bank of England would not want them to go back to the mood of 2006, when lending standards were too low.

However, the European view is not merely one of optimism about the future trend of asset values, but one of greater pessimism about inflation. Record prices for property may have peaked; some commodities, including gold, have reacted, as well. But energy and food prices are at record levels and have not yet turned down.

European bankers remain relatively anxious about the threat of a return to inflation. That is why European Central Bankers are reluctant to follow the Fed in cutting interest rates. The Bank of England is also worried about the rising budget deficit of the British government. High interest rates tend to offset the inflationary effect of the deficit, which itself seems to be rising by the day.

I find it easy to see the pessimistic case. I expect the U.K. housing and commercial property markets to continue to fall. In London, they are very closely linked. I expect the U.K. budget deficit to continue to rise. I expect Bank of England interest rate policy to remain cautious, as will that of the European Central Bank. I expect these financial conditions to continue in 2009, and probably 2010, as well. There is not all that much encouragement for optimism.

Regards,
Lord William Rees-Mogg

Greg’s Endnote: For the time being, the dollar appears to be rebounding. But that’s not necessarily the case. If European central banks raise interest rates, you can expect the dollar to slide yet again. This means that oil and energy prices will go right back up, and will most likely push even farther. Click here to read about why oil prices are destined to stay on the rise…

Greg’s Final Endnote: If you’d like to hear more from our resident commodities expert and Resource Trader Alert editor, Kevin Kerr, on why he thinks the commodity bull market is far from over, you can see his full interview from MarketWatch.com which aired this morning by clicking here.

Unfortunately, there is still no specific ETF for rice. But that doesn’t mean there aren’t any commodities ETFs to help investors profit from the rise in rice and grain prices.

“Commodity service-providers have launched a blizzard of commodities ETFs over the last 12 months,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.

“It’s no wonder investors have poured an extra US$30 billion into commodities within the first 60 days of the year alone compared to just US$10 billion in 1998. The boom has arrived and everyone wants a piece of the action as the dollar slides, rates plunge and emerging markets feed their bustling infrastructure and populations.”

Global ETF specialist Mike Burnick is also bullish on commodities ETFs.

“I’m really excited about the relatively new class of ETFs that were launched just in the last few years that track commodities. As you know, commodities have been a red-hot investment over the last – really, over the last five or six years of this bull market. We’ve seen crude oil more than double; some of the industrial metals have more than tripled; gold is up above $950 an ounce.

“Now, on the London Stock Exchange, there’s a company that listed a whole series of ETFs that cover everything in the commodities sector that you could imagine. Everything from aluminum to zinc, and everything in between. I’m really excited about these agricultural commodities.”

Read Mike’s article on hot ETFs.

According to the Washington Times, “Costco and other grocery stores in California reported a run on rice, which has forced them to set limits on how many sacks of rice each customer can buy.”

Meanwhile, reports the paper, “Filipinos in Canada are scooping up all the rice they can find and shipping it to relatives in the Philippines, which is suffering a severe shortage that is leaving many people hungry.

The reports of food rationing in California come as US rice futures hit record highs.

Many smart investors are asking: Is there a rice ETF? And the internet is hopping with questions about the existence of commodities ETFs to profit from the situation.

Soft commodities are now the best-performing sub-set of the commodity bull market,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“It’s the perfect storm for investors — especially when just about everything else in the investment world has continued to post big declines since last July.

“Commodity service-providers have launched a blizzard of commodities ETFs over the last 12 months. These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.””It’s agricultural Armageddon,” says ETF expert Mike Burnick.

“The escalating food crisis is easily the biggest problem facing Asia and other emerging markets — much more troubling than the credit crunch. After all, people in these nations can do without bank loans or new credit cards, but they can’t stop eating!”

The price of rice, which has doubled in the past year, jumped 2.3% in Chicago today.

“Soft commodities are now the best-performing sub-set of the commodity bull market,” says Eric Roseman in the Offshore A-Letter.

“It’s the perfect storm for investors – especially when just about everything else in the investment world has continued to post big declines since last July.

“Commodity service-providers have launched a blizzard of commodities ETFs over the last 12 months. These new ETFs allow both individual and institutional investors access to hot commodities like coffee, wheat, sugar and corn, to name only a few.”