The obvious answer is that they’re four of the most successful technology companies on the planet.

But they’re also heavily involved in the modernization plans for America’s “Smart Grid” – a topic I introduced in a previous column.

Make no mistake, with a decade-long project as monumental as modernizing the country’s “Smart Grid,” the devil is truly in the details. And the Commerce Department released the finer details of the initiative last week.

Until now, one of the big problems with the “Smart Grid” was the lack of set standards. Without them, each power company would be free to do as it pleases, resulting in a hodge-podge of small grids that, in all likelihood, wouldn’t work together.

To put this in perspective, just imagine how well the Internet would work if there weren’t hundreds (or perhaps even thousands) of standards in place so that everything works seamlessly.

So the National Institute of Standards (NIST) prepared the detailed standards that the Commerce Department wants the power industry to use as they build intelligence into the electrical power grid.

Job #1: Setting Up an American “Smart Grid” Standard

The standards released last week are the result of NIST’s review of proposed measures it sent out to companies like Cisco, IBM, AT&T and Intel, plus hundreds of others, seeking industry comments.

This plan basically details the integration and connection of smart meters, plus data sharing on energy usage among utilities and cyber security standards.

With regard to the latter, the big four firms lobbied vigorously for certain data and communications standards. This is because they want to integrate the essential “hooks” into their product lines as soon as possible.

And the NIST standards require internet-protocol (IP) technology in any system connected to the “Smart Grid.” The idea here is that the existing Internet could be used as the information highway for “Smart Grid” data communications and also for control purposes.

That’s good news for Cisco, in particular. It’s already a leader in IP technology, having integrated it into the “Smart Grid” systems that it currently sells.

But this brings up a potentially big problem…

Smart Meters By Name… But Not By Nature

If “Smart Grid” communication is based on IP technology, how vulnerable is it to hacking?

In order to attack the hardware, you first need to gain access to it to determine the kind of programming required to hack it. Smart hackers could simply walk up to a house where no one is home and steal one using a pair of pliers.

Once the hacker has access to the smart meter’s programming and special software codes, he can then begin communicating with all the meters made by that same manufacturer. As utilities continue their rollout of smart meters, those numbers will be in the millions.

As Mike Davis, a senior security consultant at IOActive, says, current smart meters are “probably not mature enough” and can easily be hacked.

Davis has tested a number of currently available meters (he hasn’t publicly revealed which ones) and identified vulnerabilities that could allow an experienced hacker to shut off large numbers of meters all at once from anywhere in the world.

Imagine a hacker issuing a command to several hundred thousand meters, telling them to simultaneously turn off all at once… and then immediately back on. The resulting surge would blow just about every breaker in the utilities’ grid, taking hours if not days to restore. And the next day, they could do it all over again.

Clearly, this is a serious problem for the utilities and meter makers to address. So what’s being done about it?

These Four Tech Titans Are Poised to Cash In

The good news is that with standards now in place, the Obama administration is ready to start issuing checks – perhaps as early as November. And those checks are worth a total $4.5 billion – money that the government earmarked for the “Smart Grid” project back in January.

And the beneficiaries of this windfall? Cisco, IBM, AT&T, Intel and others.

This just goes to show that it’s not just the obvious candidates that stand to profit from the electrical “Smart Grid” plans (utilities, etc). These great tech giants are ready and waiting to deliver crucial services, too.

Good investing,

David Fessler

Source: Four Companies Set to Profit from a Federal Cash Injection

It’s a world shrouded in deep myths and folklore that include stories of people losing their homes, or having 5,000 bushels of soybeans dumped on their front lawn.

I’m talking about the commodities world, of course.

But despite these tall tales, commodities aren’t necessarily dangerous investments. Not if you know what you’re doing and take adequate precautions. Rather, the “secret society” stuff comes from the belief that the sector is a murky one that many investors simply don’t understand. Just the mere sound of “commodity futures and futures options contracts” was enough to send people running for cover…

However, nothing could be further from the truth when dealing with commodities. And over the past few years, we’ve seen great changes in the financial world that have opened the doors to this “secret society.”

Step Out of Your Comfort Zone… Don’t Be Afraid of Futures & Futures Options

I’ll tell you what I’ve told my friends and acquaintances over the years: Don’t be scared of commodity futures and futures options, they’re essentially little different than stock and stock options. If you know how to trade stocks and stock options, then there’s no difference from futures and futures options.

For example, if you can buy and sell IBM (NYSE: IBM) shares and IBM options, then why can’t you buy and sell sugar futures and sugar options? There is no difference. As long as you have an idea of where an investment (be it IBM or sugar) might move to and its underlying fundamentals, then what is there to be scared about?

Here’s the problem as I see it (based on my 18 years of experience in the commodities sector): Most people just don’t know enough about the underlying fundamentals of commodities – how/why soybeans, cocoa, cotton, or live cattle trade in a certain way. The majority of people know stocks and that’s that. They don’t like change and are fearful to step out of their comfort zone.

But all commodities that are available to trade on various U.S. exchanges are highly regulated. They have strict rules, which are efficient and assure the integrity and safety of your capital.

So if you’re looking to add some great potential gains to your portfolio, then consider what commodities can do for you…

Four Commodities… Four Explosive Moves

Want some examples of how explosive the world of commodities can be? Just look at these moves for oil, natural gas, gold and silver over the past year…

How would you have liked to hop aboard some of those moves?

Oil: When it started rising in 2007 and topped in 2008, it encompassed a staggering $90,000 move if you’d held just one contract. And the freefall that ended last March brought in an unheard of $110,000 for anyone being bearish.

If you’d held 10 contracts during those moves, you could have seen gains of over $1 million! And that’s just one direction. Double it if you went both ways.

Natural Gas: The move up in the summer of 2007 to the top in 2008 encompassed an $85,000 move, while the drop back down to the lows hit just two weeks ago and saw an even larger haul of $110,000. And this was for holding just one measly little contract. Imagine if you had 100 contracts.

Gold: From the gold chart below, you can see the trend higher from 2002. But even if you got onboard as late as 2006, the move could still have netted you $45,000.

Silver: A bullish position taken in 2006 would have scored $60,000 on just one contract. And if you’d hopped on the bear train near the highs in the spring of 2008, you could have pocketed another $65,000 just six months later.

This is some serious money folks.

And the great thing about commodities is that it’s normal for them to cycle from highs to lows and then back again. This gives you opportunities to profit on the way up and the way down. Moreover, it’s in contrast to the stock market, where most moves are biased to the upside.

Now, if you want to profit today…

Three Reasons Why You Should Trade These Four ETFs

Due to the changes that have taken place in the commodities world, regular investors have a chance to take part in the sector without leaving the comfort of a stockbroker.

We’re talking about commodity-related exchange-traded-funds (ETFs), which mimic the moves of the underlying asset. So you can use them to play some of the most popular and active commodity markets.

For example, if you’d like to go for oil, natural gas, gold, and silver, consider these ETFs:

• Oil: United States Oil Fund (NYSE: USO)
• Natural Gas: United States Natural Gas Fund (NYSE: UNG)
• Gold: SPDR Gold Shares (NYSE: GLD)
• Silver: iShares Silver Trust (NYSE: SLV)

If you want to gain exposure to the often lucrative commodities world, here’s why you should trade these ETFs…

1. Simple: ETFs trade like stocks, so you can buy and sell them as you would with shares of any other company from a regular stock brokerage account. So you don’t even need to get involved with commodity brokers, futures, or futures options contracts.
2. Options: The ETFs also have options available, which offers you more leverage and can reduce your risk.
3. Liquidity: Because all four of these ETFs are the largest ones available for their respective commodities, there is enough volume to be able to get in and out quickly and safely.

Next time, I’ll show you one of my favorite ways to use an options strategy to execute a bullish commodity trade. But in the meantime, check out those ETFs above.

Good trading,

Lee Lowell

Source: Four Easy Ways to Trade the World’s Top Commodities

Oracle reported revenue for the three months ended Aug. 31 fell 5%, to $5.05 billion. Analysts were expecting $5.2 billion of sales.

Net income rose 4% to $1.1 billion, or 22 cents a share, by Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), but the company leaned heavily on support contracts and cost cutting to maintain profitability. The world’s second-largest software maker blamed the drop on declining overseas sales and a stronger U.S. dollar.

“Oracle’s results were impacted by the reduced value of foreign currencies when compared to U.S. dollars, reducing Q1 GAAP earnings by $0.02 per share,” the company said. “Without this impact, Oracle’s Q1 GAAP and non-GAAP earnings per share would have been $0.24 and $0.32, respectively.”

Oracle issued a more positive outlook for its fiscal second quarter, which ends in November. The summer is traditionally a slow period for the company which typically sees business pick up as its fiscal year moves forward. Additionally, the global economy is showing signs of improvement.

Oracle President Safra Catz said profit would be 35 cents to 36 cents per share in the second quarter. The company forecast revenue of about $5.6 billion to $5.8 billion for the period.

However, analysts remain skeptical that a fledgling economic recovery will necessarily lead to an increase in earnings.

“Just because people are starting to feel better about the economy doesn’t mean they’re ready to spend money on software,” said Partrick Walravens, an analyst at JMP Securities Inc. (NYSE: JMP), told BusinessWeek.

Sales of new software licenses – a key indicator of future revenue – fell 17% to $1.03 billion. Sales of database and middleware licenses plunged 21.5%. Middleware is software that helps different kinds of programs share information.

Additionally, Oracle’s $7.4 billion acquisition of Sun Microsystems has not gone as smoothly as planned.

Sun Setbacks

In April, Oracle announced it would takeover Sun in a move that gives it control of the database market as well as Sun’s coveted Java programming language. Java-based software is not operating system-dependent and runs on over 1 billion devices worldwide, from cell phones to supercomputers.

JMP’s Walravens believes the buyout is partly responsible for Oracle’s lackluster first-quarter earnings.

“There’s a ton of pre-merger planning you want to do before an acquisition, and [first-quarter sales decline] shows management were probably distracted by the Sun purchase,” he told Bloomberg in an interview. Walravens rates Oracle’s shares “market perform” and doesn’t own them.

Of course, the bigger threat to Oracle’s business is an ongoing antitrust investigation that has been launched by the European Commission (EC). While, the U.S. Justice Department approved the deal last month, the EC is worried that by acquiring Sun, Oracle will be too strong a presence in the database market.

“Databases are a key element of company IT systems,” said Neelie Kroes, The EC’s competition commissioner. “In the current economic context, all companies are looking for cost-effective IT solutions, and systems based on open-source software are increasingly emerging as viable alternatives to proprietary solutions. The Commission has to ensure that such alternatives would continue to be available.”

It’s possible that Oracle will have to spin off Sun’s MySQL open-source database to accommodate the EC. The commission has until January 19 to reach a verdict on the merger. But as the commission deliberates, former Sun customers are defecting to Oracle’s biggest competitors.

Hewlett-Packard Co. (Nasdaq: HPQ) says it signed deals with more than 100 Sun customers between February and July, BusinessWeek reported. Meanwhile, International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) has lured 250 customers from Sun to its own computer systems since January, and is adding about two accounts a week, according to Inna Kuznetsova, IBM’s director of Linux strategy.

“The longer [the closing process] wears on, the more Sun’s business deteriorates, and the more market share IBM and Hewlett-Packard take away,” said Walravens.

Faced with an exodus of Sun clients, Oracle has taken some small steps to inspire more confidence in its fleeing customer base.

Earlier this month the company unveiled the Sun-Oracle Exadata Database Machine V2, a co-developed co-branded system that is meant to show that close engineering cooperation between the two companies is already underway.

The databased server is “a perfect example of what we can do together,” said Oracle’s Catz. “We continue to do what we can at arm’s length.

Oracle and Sun don’t have to be merged to make a product together. However, the first version of the machine was manufactured with Hewlett Packard.

“While the first version was built in partnership with H-P, this version leverages Sun’s hardware, clearly signaling the company’s intentions for Sun’s hardware division under the pending acquisition,” Tom Klasell, an analyst with Thomas Weisel Partners, wrote in a note to clients.

Oracle also took out an advertisement in The Wall Street Journal that said it plans to spend more money on Sun’s Solaris and SPARC development. That ad was meant to stem the tide of defections from Sun’s computer systems, as it made specific reference to increased competition with IBM. On its Web site, IBM describes Sun’s hardware business as “highly uncertain” and having an “undefined future.”

“I think someone at Oracle suddenly realized that Sun was bleeding so badly that what would be left when Oracle finally got control would be worth a small fraction of what they paid and no one would buy the hardware unit,” Rob Enderle, an independent analyst, told ComputerWorld.

The ad was a positive step for many Sun customers, but if Oracle is going to stop the bleeding it’s going to have to keep the pressure on until the merger is finally approved.

“A lot of our clients are nervous, and they want to know what’s going to happen,” Irene Griffith, Sun customer and owner of PetroSys Solutions Inc. in Houston, told ComputerWorld.

“IBM is very good at creating FUD” – fear, uncertainty and doubt, she said. Adding to her anxiety, Griffith said that she has been unsuccessful at getting information from Sun. “They’re not talking to us, they’re not reaching out to us,” she said.

Source: Oracle’s Future Clouded by Sun Takeover Complications

You’ve probably heard a lot of people talk about the P/E ratio. It’s one of the most popular fundamental analysis numbers out there. Moreover, it has earned a reputation as one of the key ways we value stocks. And in my book, it’s one you simply can’t avoid.

In a nutshell, the P/E ratio gives us a clue into the real value of a stock. It does so by taking the price of the stock and dividing it by the company’s earnings over the last 12 months. Spelled out:

P/E Ratio = Stock Price / Yearly Earnings

Let’s say XYZ is selling for $20 a share. Over the last 12 months, the company has earned $2. As a result…

XYZ P/E Ratio = $20 / $2 = 10

Since XYZ stock is currently selling for $20 and over the past 12 months the company has earned $2 a share, XYZ’s P/E ratio is 10.

So getting the P/E number is pretty straightforward. But by itself, figuring that XYZ has a P/E of 10 doesn’t really do much for us. It’s just the starting place that makes valuing a company easier. Without it, we’re sort of left in the dark about whether a stock’s price is really worth what people are paying for it. So now we need to dig deeper.

Using the P/E Ratio Makes Valuations Easier

Think about it a second. In our example above, XYZ is selling for $20 a share. But how do we know that $20 a share is a fair price for XYZ?

First off, we take XYZ’s P/E and compare it with other companies in XYZ’s industry. If other companies in the same industry carry P/Es lower than XYZ’s, then we say the XYZ is “overvalued.” Let’s look at a real-life example…

As you can see from this graph, IBM carries a P/E ratio of 12.8. That means its share price is valued at nearly 13 times its last 12 months of earnings. The average P/E for companies in IBM’s sector is just 10.7. As a result, we can figure that IBM is slightly overvalued.

In other words, compared with other companies in its marketplace, you’re going to pay a little bit more for IBM than other players. And the P/E ratio helped us get to this determination very quickly and with very little fuss.

Since IBM is slightly overvalued, does that mean we shouldn’t buy the stock? Not at all. While the P/E ratio tells us something about IBM’s value, it’s not the whole story.

IBM (NYSE:IBM) is an industry leader. So just as with any big-name brand, you’re going to pay a little bit more for it. And in my book, the slight difference between IBM’s P/E of 12.8 and the sector’s 10.7 is well worth the premium.

Now, if you are looking to invest in a company with lots of solid growth prospects, you’re quickly going to see that the company’s P/E ratio could easily be much higher than IBM’s 12.8. And the reason that’s so is pretty simple…

Companies with high growth prospects command a higher P/E ratio because investors believe the growth rate is going to translate into higher stock prices down the road. And since stock prices reflect what investors think is going to happen to a company, these high-growth companies usually carry higher P/Es.

Should these higher P/Es drive us away? Not necessarily. Companies with higher growth rates are going to deserve higher P/Es. But the higher P/Es have to be justified by other solid fundamental factors, like exciting new products, top management and good financial operations.

Look at Both the “P” and “E” for Historical Comparisons

In addition to comparing a company’s P/E with its sector, I also like comparing its current P/E with what’s happened in the past. Let’s take another look at XYZ…

Currently, the company carries a P/E ratio of 10. But let’s say that a year ago, XYZ’s P/E was 8. So what does this tell us about the value of XYZ?

Looking just at these numbers, I would conclude that XYZ is becoming higher valued. In other words, investors like the growth prospects for XYZ and are bidding up the stock’s price to prove it.

But before we pop open the champagne, it’s a good idea to take a look at what’s happened to both parts of XYZ’s P/E over the last year.

If the “P” – the price – of XYZ has gone up and XYZ’s “E” – earnings – have gone up, then we’re looking at a growth company that’s commanding a higher stock price. In my book, that’s a positive.

But if the “P” of XYZ has gone up and the “E” has remained the same – or, worse, gone down – then investors are piling into XYZ without much care for earnings. While that’s not always a bad thing, a lower “E” with a higher “P” is certainly cause for concern in my book.

P/E for the Broader Market

No matter what kind of company you’re looking at, it’s always a good idea to have an idea of where its P/E stacks up against the stock market as a whole. And a good way of doing that is to look at historical P/Es for the S&P 500. Take a look at the next graph.

As you can see from this graph, the P/E ratio for the broader U.S. stock market fluctuated between 17 and 25 from March 2005 to September 2008. In fact, the average P/E for the S&P 500 was 19.5 during this period.

In December 2008, the S&P 500’s P/E ballooned to 61. With my data going back to 1936, this is by far the highest P/E on record. And with the mess the market and the economy were in, it goes without saying that this astronomical P/E wasn’t driven by high growth and excellent earnings.

So what’s the takeaway? Simply, that when looking at P/Es for the broader market, it’s important to pay attention to long-term trends with exceptions – like last December’s quarter – taken into consideration.

Drawbacks to the P/E Ratio

Just like every indicator in the book, the P/E has drawbacks. And you need to keep these in mind when you use this popular ratio.

First off, the bottom of the equation – the earnings part – is calculated by the company based on accounting rules. And while many of these rules are in place to protect investors, there’s little doubt that figuring out how a company arrives at its “E” is a monumental task.

Companies can also massage numbers to make their “E” more attractive. And I don’t have to tell you that the unscrupulous ones aren’t above just plain falsifying their books.

But that’s not all…

The P/E ratio can also be calculated using different time frames for the earnings part. The one we’ve used here – the trailing 12-month historical P/E – is the most common, but sometimes the P/E is based on projections that haven’t happened yet. As a result, projected P/Es are less reliable to me than historical P/Es. And you have to know which kind of P/E you’re dealing with.

Best wishes,
Wayne Burritt

Source: The Secret of Wall Street’s Most Powerful Number

Investment News Briefs Wednesday, September 9, 2009

And it’s this time component that is a critical factor when it comes to valuing the price of a LEAP option and the amount of risk involved.

An option’s price is determined by a computer program – either the Options Pricing Model or the Black-Scholes Model. Black, Scholes and Merton developed the latter model in the 1970s, winning a Nobel Prize for it.

Essentially, both models take the same main factors into account…

• The amount of time until expiration.
• The price of the underlying shares.
• The volatility of the share price.
• The risk-free rate of return.

Let’s take a look at these factors, so you know how to pick the right options with the best chance of yielding handsome profits…

Put Time on Your Side With LEAP Options

Time Until Expiration: When most people think about options, they think about getting the biggest bang for their buck and profiting in the shortest amount of time.

But be careful, because it isn’t that simple. With short-term options, time is against you. If the outcome you desire isn’t achieved within a short period of time, your option expires worthless.

However, LEAP options give you plenty of time for you to be correct and profit from the trade. Time is a critical component of a LEAPS trade.

• For example, I’ve seen a LEAP option on a gold stock recommendation move from the $3 price we paid, to $0.50, then right back up to $16… all during a 12-month period.
• Contrast that with a short-term option, which would have flamed out a long time before the share price recovered.

With LEAPS, you have time to withstand a bad earnings report, a market correction, a terrorist attack, or a plethora of other shocks that would otherwise mean a world of hurt for your position.

Stock-Watching: How the Share Price Affects the Option Price

Price of the Underlying Shares: It stands to reason that the price of the underlying shares is another key factor in determining how much you pay for the LEAPS options.

Basically, the closer the strike price (the price at which you have the right to buy or sell the stock) is to the current share price, the more expensive the option will be.

• For example, if IBM (NYSE: IBM) trades for $100, a $95 call option would be considered in-the-money since the strike price is less than the current option price. In this case, the option premium will have intrinsic value. For example, if the option cost $9, $5 of that would be intrinsic value and $4 would be the amount paid for time and risk.
• If your option is out-of-the-money, you pay for time and risk. So if IBM was at $100 and you bought a $105 call option for $5, the entire $5 would be for time and risk. But while the option premium is less than an in-the-money option, the probability of winning is also lower.

How Much Will Your Option Move? This Volatility Number Will Tell You

Volatility: When we talk about volatility here, we’re referring to how the share price performs in relation to the broader market. This is known as a stock’s beta.

Simply put, a stock with a beta of 1 will move in line with the market. A number under 1 means it’s less volatile, while a number higher than 1 means it’s more prone to volatility. So if the S&P 500 moves down 1% and your stock moves down 2%, your stock has a very high beta – double that of the market.

The higher the beta, the more expensive the options are, since options have the ability to move with greater speed in either direction.

• For example, the beta on shares of tech giant Apple (Nasdaq: AAPL) will be much higher than the beta on a stodgy pharma company like Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG).

Risk Free Rate of Return: Measuring the cost of money at the cheapest possible price and the best possible return with no risk, this final factor is usually associated with government Treasury securities, especially 10-year Treasury bonds.

Together, these four features – time to expiration, underlying share price, volatility and risk-free rate of return – represent the critical components in determining the price of LEAP options (or any options, for that matter).

Next time, we’ll explore the economics of the LEAP strategy along with how you can invest in the market with 15% of your cash while the rest of the world is foolishly using 100% of theirs.

Good investing,

Karim Rahemtulla

Source: Put Time on Your Side With This Trading Strategy

But Obama’s high-speed rail initiative has gotten off to a sluggish start, while a much bigger, $300 billion plan to create the world’s largest and most sophisticated high-speed rail network is already rapidly unfolding in China.

“Railroads were always the pride of America, and stitched us together. Now Japan, China, all of Europe have high-speed rail systems that put ours to shame,” Obama said in April.

In a proposal called “A  Vision  for  High-Speed  Rail  in  America” Obama and the Federal Railroad Administration outlined a plan to develop 10 “potential” 100-600 mile corridors in the United States, “similar to how interstate highways and the U.S. aviation system were developed in the 20th century.”

Developing all 10 high-speed corridors could eliminate 6 billion pounds, or about 3 million tons, of greenhouse gas emissions each year, the FRA said.

But the plan was pitched as more than a way to make travel cleaner and more efficient. It was touted as a way of creating jobs. In April, when Obama gave his speech, the unemployment rate stood at 8.9%. It’s since risen to 9.4% in July and will likely test 10% by the end of the year.

Meanwhile, the FRA has until 2012 to disperse the first $8 billion of the total $13 billion allocated to high-speed rail. And when that money is finally paid out, it’s more likely to go towards upgrading existing infrastructure than laying new high-speed rail.

“No one expects we are going to begin, let alone complete, the high-speed rail system with $8 billion,” FRA spokesman Warren Flatau told CNNMoney. But the stimulus funds represent the “groundwork for a more sustainable program of funding in the future.”

The remaining $5 billion has been included in the president’s budget over the next five years.

Already, it that amount seems to be woefully inadequate. Last month, more than 40 states submitted 278 pre-applications for stimulus-funded high-speed rail projects. The total amount of funds requested amounted to $102.5 billion in requests, according to CNN.

China Fast-Tracks High Speed Investment

High-speed rail may be on its way to the United States but it’s already arrived in China.

China introduced a 270mph maglev train service in March 2004 and regular high-speed train services in April 2007. But it’s not stopping there.

Beijing will spend $50 billion on high-speed rail this year alone, and the central government plans to spend another $250 billion over the next decade. By 2020, China will have laid nearly 16,000 miles of high-speed track capable of carrying the fastest trains on the planet. By comparison, America has just 457 miles of high-speed track.

And unlike in the United States, China’s high-speed railroad initiative is already producing jobs. So far, the construction of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed route alone has created about 110,000 jobs and is playing an enormous part in China’s economic recovery.

Spending on railways jumped 126.5% year-over-year in the first half of 2009, leading to a huge increase in the nation’s steel production at a time when global demand was decidedly weak. China’s crude steel output in July reached a record 50.68 million metric tons, up 12.6% compared with last year, according to figures from the National Bureau of Statistics.

There is no doubt that “the acceleration of [the massive railroad build-out is playing a key role in China’s recovery,” David Li, an economist at Beijing’s Tsinghua University told Fortune.

Liang Yi, the vice CEO of the China Railway Construction Co. (CRCC) subsidiary working on the Beijing-Shanghai route told Fortune that his company may hire up to 20,000 new university grads to meet the growing workload. Liang said his unit alone is absorbing 8,000 more workers this year than it did last.

Of course, that doesn’t mean Chinese companies are the only ones profiting from China’s railroad expansion.

International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) won a contract to provide software for high-speed trains the Guangdong province. Also, IBM last month announced that it was opening a “Global Rail Innovation Center” in Beijing.

“In the next five years, China is investing more in high speed rail than the rest of the world combined,” Keith Dierkx, the director of this new center, told TheInfrastructurist.com. “This enormous build out of the HSR frees up their traditional rail network for freight. So, they’ll have more high-speed rail than the rest of the world combined–but they’ll also be getting better freight capacity.”

Canada’s Bombardier Inc., the world’s largest rail equipment manufacturer, also got in on China’s massive HSR initiative when it won a contract for work on 40 high-speed trains, as well as a signaling system.

Fortune estimates that foreign companies have won about $10 billion worth of contracts for work on China’s high-speed rail system.

Still, Money Morning Investment Director Keith Fitz-Gerald believes that the best way to capitalize on China’s massive rail build-out is by investing in Chinese companies that will have a long-term presence.

“There’s certainly hay to be made on high-speed rail development in the United States, but if you really want to capitalize on this trend you should look at China, which accounts for 25% of the world’s railroad traffic but has only 6% of the world’s rails,” Fitz-Gerald said. “To the extent that China builds high-speed rail, then effectively railroad companies across the country will benefit from increased traffic.”

In a recent Money Morning Webinar, Fitz-Gerald named Guangshen Railway Co. (NYSE ADR: GSH) as company that has good long-term prospects in China’s transportation sector.

“Guangshen is involved in high speed, it’s involved in capacity and it’s got relatively low debt,” said Fitz-Gerald. “It’s just another example of a Chinese company capitalizing on a huge infrastructure expansion that’s backed by billions of dollars in government investment.”

Guangshen’s 2008 operating revenue jumped 11.23% in 2008, in part because of HSR development.

Source: High-Speed Rail Puts Investors on the Fast Track to Profits in China, but Languishes in the U.S.

When the U.S. Commerce Department on Friday said the U.S. economy contracted at a 1% annual pace in the second quarter, the report was actually seen as good news: It was a slower decline than in each of the two prior quarters, and economists had expected a contraction of 1.5%.

“This is good news,” Nariman Behravesh, an economist with IHS Global Insight Inc. (NYSE: IHS), told The San Francisco Chronicle.

But here’s the wild card: Although government spending did increase during the April-to-June quarter, only about 7.7% – $60.4 billion – of U.S. President Barack Obama’s stimulus package had actually made its way into the U.S. economy by June 30, the quarter’s official conclusion. Of that total, the largest component went to U.S. states to help defray the jump in Medicaid costs, CNNMoney.com reported.

Much of the $43 billion in stimulus tax relief – including the “Making Work Pay” tax credit for individual workers – also took effect during the second quarter, CNNMoney said.

At this point, it’s really difficult to “see how the effect of stimulus has been very large,” Edward Lazear, an economics professor at Stanford’s Graduate School of Business – who served as an advisor to former U.S. President George W. Bush – told CNN. “Very little has gone out.”
And that’s the problem.

In short, it looks like we’re already experiencing an economic rebound – without the Obama stimulus having really even kicked in … yet. In fact, the impatience over the continued U.S. malaise, the slowness of the economic turnaround and the fact that when growth does return we’re almost assured of a “jobless recovery” actually has some Washington legislators already pushing for a second stimulus.

That means the economy will be in rebound mode when nearly three-quarters of a trillion dollars in stimulus money starts to flow in. Dumping all that money into an already-growing economy won’t just serve as a simple tailwind that gives the economy a gentle push; it will be more like the head-snapping start followed by the thunderous charge down the quarter mile that we see from one of the supercharged Top Fuel Funny Cars driven by National Hot Rod Association (NHRA) star John Force. (From a standing start, Top Fuel Funny Cars cover a quarter mile in less than five seconds at speeds well in excess of 325 miles per hour).

And there’s only one outcome from that scenario – rampant inflation. In fact, U.S. consumers are probably headed for the worst bout of inflationsince the 1980s. And that makes the so-called “exit strategy” of U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke all the more important.
To be sure, the Obama stimulus has given the economy a bit of a boost. So far:

• The states have deployed what stimulus money they have received, which helped fuel the biggest surge in state and local spending since 2007.
• Some early pieces of the stimulus – such as the $25 increase in unemployment benefits – have allowed consumers to spend more.
• And one economist – Economic Policy Institute’s Josh Bivens – said Obama stimulus money may have boosted growth by as much as three percentage points during the second quarter.

But other economists say that – given the environment – the second-quarter GDP numbers were much too strong. After all, business spending dropped 8.9% and hours worked fell 7%. Somehow that doesn’t translate into a mere 1% drop in GDP. That latter figure will most certainly be revised downward in the future.

Unless or until that happens, look for the third quarter GDP statistics to give us a better picture of the U.S. economy’s health. Complaints that the promised stimulus money isn’t getting where it needs to be have Obama’s economic team working overtime to iron out the problems that keep cropping up.

Mark Thoma, an economics professor at the University of Oregon, toldCNNMoney that “the third quarter will be a critical time period for assessing the stimulus package.”

And for assessing the inflation threat – which Money Morning has repeatedly warned is a very real threat. Gold, commodities, and other hard assets will be key holdings. The same is true for dividend-paying stocks. And make sure to go global – the best growth prospects will continue to be overseas.

Market Matters

A report by the New York Attorney General’s Office claims the initial nine institutions that received Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) money paid out $33 billion in bonuses in 2008.  Of particular note, Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) and Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) rewarded a combined 900 employees (combined) with bonuses of at least $1 million, despite having received $45 billion each in government aid (and that doesn’t count the $3.6 billion Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. employees received).  Imagine how much they would have made if the companies were actually doing well?

While President Obama continued his road trip across America to promote health care reform, a group of conservative Democrats (Blue Dogs) came up with their version of a bill, but offered no timetable for completion.

Meanwhile, regulators pushed forward with proposed rules aimed at reducing speculation in the marketplace and focused on so-called “naked” short selling and on lpacing strict limits on commodities contracts.

In corporate news, deals were the theme of the week.  Microsoft Corp. (Nasdaq: MSFT) made amends with Yahoo! Inc. (Nasdaq: YHOO) and forged a 10-year partnership to cut into Google Inc.’s (Nasdaq:GOOG) share of the Internet search business. And International Business Machines Inc. (NYSE: IBM) is expanding its software empire with the purchase of SPSS Inc. (Nasdaq: SPSS) for $1.2 billion.

On the earnings front, energy companies highlighted the week’s reports and the results were not pretty (though were expected).  On a positive note, Motorola Inc. (NYSE: MOT) surprised analysts by reporting an unexpected profit, while offering a promising outlook, and Deutsche Bank AG (NYSE: DB) continued the favorable trend among (previously depressed) financials by posting strong earnings on solid investment banking operations.

Investors digested the mixed earnings news and chose to focus more on the positives.  Despite a temporary setback in China (5% index decline before encouraging comments by its central bank), the Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher late in the week after General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) was upgraded to a “Buy” by a major analyst, a sign of an improving climate.  The Nasdaq Composite Index even flirted with 2,000 for the first time since October 2008, and theStandard & Poor’s 500 Index edged closer to 1,000, a level not seen since last November.

The Dow ended July with its best monthly performance since October 2002.  Japanese stocks moved to their highest levels in about 10 months and European equities soared to nine-month highs.  Bond investors breathed sighs of relief as a record $115 billion Treasury auctions came to a close and foreign bankers emerged as buyers on the final day.

Economically Speaking

Has Fed Chairman Bernanke suddenly become Mr. Optimist these days? Early in the week, he proclaimed that the financial debacle ultimately would produce favorable results as “not only will we will be back on track, but the economy will be stronger than it had been before this started.”  He also urged Congress to move forward with a regulatory reform package to ensure that such dire times will not be repeated.

The Fed’s Beige Book showed that the economy remained weak, though signs of stabilization and improvements in manufacturing, housing, and even labor are occurring across several regions of the country.  Some districts reported enhanced corporate hiring, particularly within the healthcare and technology sectors.

The afore-mentioned second-quarter GDP report was better than expected, giving yet another indication that the recession is drawing closer to an end.

Still, it’s a much deeper recession than most realized: For the first time since records have been kept (1947), economic activity has declined for four consecutive quarters.  New homes sales skyrocketed in June by 11%, the fourth increase in the last six months, and home prices even climbed on a month-over-month basis for the first time since July 2006 according to the S&P Case-Shiller index.

Durable good orders fell in June, though once the volatile transportation category was removed from the statistic, orders actually increased.  Consumer confidence fell in June, as ongoing pressures on the labor markets brought continued concerns and many Americans are refraining from major purchases (now and for the foreseeable future).

On the other hand, jobless claims rose in the most recent week, though analysts pointed to discrepancies from the auto industry.   Looking at the four-week moving average as a better gauge, claims for unemployment benefits actually fell to the lowest level since January and continuous claims unexpectedly declined, as well.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Why the Obama Stimulus Has Us on a Collision Course with Inflation

• Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) representatives are yesterday (Tuesday) defended their commodities trading business on Capitol Hill, where regulators may set limits on speculators in the sector. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said that the energy trading community may have played a major role in the volatility of energy prices over the last few years, and may need to expand its oversight of the practice. “The American people are tired of excessive speculation and bubble economies caused by Wall Street greed,” Senator Bernard Sanders, an independent from Vermont, said at the hearing, according to The New York Times. “They are tired of hedge fund managers and firms like Goldman Sachs making a fortune betting that the subprime mortgage market will continue to get worse or that more companies will go bankrupt.”

• Consumer confidence in the United States continues to wane: The Conference Board’s confidence index fell to 46.6 this month following a 49.3 reading in June. The key factor affecting confidence is unemployment. “Folks are still concerned about their jobs,” Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC told Bloomberg News.

• Month-to-month U.S. home prices in May grew 0.5% in May, the first increase in nearly three years according to the Standard & Poor’s/Case-Shiller Home Price Indicies. Year-on-year prices continue to decline on the 20-city index, falling 17.1%. “The pace of descent in home price values appears to be slowing,” said David M. Blitzer, chairman of the Index Committee at S&P in a prepared statement. “While many indicators are showing signs of life in the U.S. housing market, we should remember that on a year-over-year basis home prices are still down about 17% on average across all metro areas, so we likely do have a way to go before we see sustained home price appreciation.”

• In a move that should appease public outrage over Wall Street pay, the U.S. House Financial Services Committee approved legislation that would enable regulators to ban incentive pay at banks and give shareholders a vote on bonuses, Bloomberg News reported. The bill, adopted 40-28 yesterday (Tuesday),would allow agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to prohibit compensation that encourages financial companies to take “inappropriate risks.” The House of Representatives and Senate must pass the bill before U.S. President Barack Obama signs it into law. The House could vote as soon as Friday.

• International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) acquired Chicago-based predictive analytics firm SPSS Inc. (Nasdaq: SPSS) for $1.2 billion in cash, or $50 per share. The deal was valued at 40% above SPSS’ closing price of $35.09 on Monday. SPSS’ shares soared on the news yesterday (Tuesday), closing at $49.45, up 40.92% or $14.36. The worldwide market for business analytics software will swell to $25 billion this year, growing 4% over 2008, IBM said, citing Interactive Data Corp. (NYSE: IDC) information.

• Viacom Inc. (NYSE: VIA) suffered a 32% drop in its second quarter bottom line, citing a challenging global economy. The media giant’s profit fell to $277 million, or 46 cents a share on revenue of $3.29 million for the quarter ended June 30. That compares to a net income of $406 million, or 64 cents a share on revenue of $3.85 billion in the same period last year. The company was encouraged that its premium movie channel, Epix, coming this fall, will appear in the lineup for subscribers of Verizon Communications Inc.’s (NYSE: VZ) FiOS television service. “While we view this as an encouraging sign, we note that Verizon FiOS has a very limited base of TV subscribers,” Spencer Wang said in a Reuters report. “We continue to believe securing distribution from larger operators [such as major cable companies] will be challenging.”

Source: Investment News Briefs Wednesday, July 29, 2009

With options running out over the weekend, CIT advisors began preparations for a bankruptcy filing. As of Sunday, JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) and Morgan Stanley (MS) were talking with other banks about a debtor-in-possession loan, used to fund a company’s operations after it seeks court protection from creditors, Bloomberg News reported.

Bondholders held calls last week to discuss whether to swap some claims for equity to reduce indebtedness. Thomas Lauria, a lawyer at White & Case LLP, told Bloomberg that a group of CIT creditors he represents offered to provide $3 billion in new loans to bridge CIT to an out-of-court restructuring or an orderly bankruptcy, but had yet to hear back from CIT management.

“It seems CIT was ill-prepared for this moment, so they’re scrambling,” Scott Peltz, a managing director at consulting firm RSM McGladrey Inc. told Bloomberg. “Unless you have all these bondholders holding hands and singing Kumbaya, I think they’re too far behind the eight ball to avoid filing.”

While CIT is not nearly the household name of Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)or Bank of America Corp. (NYSE: BAC), the lender finances over 1 million businesses – including Dunkin Donuts and Eddie Bauer.

Three prominent retail trade groups sent letters to financial regulators this week warning that the failure of CIT would undermine the industry supply chain.
“[Retailers] are unbelievably concerned right now,” New York bankruptcy lawyer Jerry Reisman told the Buffalo News. “What we may have here is a total disruption in small business.”

Reisman said he received more than two dozen calls from panicked stores and apparel manufacturers, some of which said they may not have the money to pay their employees.

An otherwise light week on the economic calendar gives way to the next round of earnings as Apple Inc (Nasdaq: AAPL) and Texas Instruments Inc. (NYSE: TXN) highlight the corporate releases this week, while consumer companies The Coca Cola Co. (NYSE: KO),McDonalds Corp. (NYSE: MCD), and Amazon.com Inc. (Nasdaq:AMZN) join the mix.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will head to Congress where several critics await.  As for the healthcare debate, the August deadline seems less likely, though the Senate has its two cents to add in the coming days.  Expect plenty of politicized talk about the ballooning deficit and the impact on small businesses.

Market Matters

The financial sector appears to be on the mend as earnings season brought several positive signs that the worst is over and soon “business as usual” will return to Wall Street.  Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) easily surpassed analysts’ earnings estimates on solid trading revenues, while JP Morgan got a boost from its investment banking division to shatter the forecasts.

Even Citigroup and Bank of America posted solid results (thanks to one-time gains), though both entities have many ongoing challenges to overcome before the Feds let them fend for themselves.

Of course, the possibility that CIT will file for bankruptcy protection has left panicked customers without a significant source of funding for their daily operations.  After late hour negotiations failed, the government chose to pass on another sizable bailout and allow true capitalism to play itself out.  CIT turned to private firm and bondholders to help devise a financing plan and avoid the fate of Lehman Bros. and others.  But now, nervous retailers and manufacturers are lining up alternative funding sources with the hope of dodging significant business interruptions.

Bed Bath & Beyond (Nasdaq: BBBY) and Wal-Mart Stores Inc. (NYSE: WMT) are among CIT’s largest customers, though many are small independent operations.  A CIT failure could prove devastating for those firms considered the lifeblood of American business.

In other earnings news, techs enjoyed another decent quarter as Intel Corp. (INTC) easily bested expectations (that is, before that $1.45 billion antitrust fine) and International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) earnings grew by double-digits, while management raised its outlook for the next few quarters.  Though both offered encouraging signs for the sector (and economy as a whole), Dell Inc. (Nasdaq:DELL) warned that lower margins are impacting its operations andGoogle Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) experienced its lowest rate of revenue growth since going public five years ago.

The travel industry continued to struggle as consumers and business professionals delayed trips and Marriott International Inc. (NYSE:MAR) and American Airlines parent AMR (NYSE: AMR) posted disappointing results.

Market/ Index	Year Close (2008)	Qtr Close (06/30/09)	Previous Week (07/10/09)	Current Week (07/17/09)	YTD Change
Dow Jones Industrial	8,776.39	8,447.00	8,146.52	8,743.94	-0.37%
NASDAQ	1,577.03	1,835.04	1,756.03	1,886.61	+19.63%
S&P 500	903.25	919.32	879.13	940.38	+4.11%
Russell 2000	499.45	508.28	480.98	519.22	+3.96%
Global Dow	1526.21	1,629.31	1,561.11	1,664.23	+9.04%
Fed Funds	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0.25%	0 bps
10 yr Treasury (Yield)	2.24%	3.52%	3.30%	3.65%	+141 bps

Economically Speaking

The White House also experienced a “good news/bad news” week as House Democrats began to push forward a major healthcare overhaul.  Before the real lobbying could begin in earnest, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) Director proclaimed the proposal would have no positive results on reducing costs or expanding coverage and would actually increase government spending.

Investors shrugged off the CIT developments and focused on positive earnings and economic data.  Stocks surged early on the Goldman news and soared right through the technology reports.  Technicians joined the fun as the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index broke beyond resistance at 930, a strong sign for traders who monitor charts.  Major indexes snapped a month-long losing streak and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed to levels not seen since last October, while fixed income suffered reverse “flight-to-quality” trades.  Oil rebounded on the favorable market and economic signs.

While the debate over a healthcare overhaul rages on, the Treasury Department reported that the budget deficit ballooned beyond a record $1 trillion and seemed prime to move even higher if Congress cannot reign in spending.   Analysts fear that interest rates ultimately will move higher should the alarming trend continue and foreign investors shy away from U.S. securities.

But for now, inflation seems very much under control, despite sizable jumps in both the retail and wholesale gauges.  Though gasoline prices surged by 17% in June, prices have already begun dropping at the pumps and most economists do not expect a repeat performance in the months to come.

Though retail sales increased in June for the second consecutive month, much of the gain was related to the rising gas prices and consumers remain reluctant to part with their hard-earned income in light of the weakening labor picture.

On a positive note, weekly jobless claims fell to its lowest level since January. However, naysayers claimed that much of the decline was due to calculation problems stemming from auto closures and layoffs are still very much on the rise.

Finally, the hectic economic calendar ended on a positive note as the housing sector showed renewed signs of a rebound as both new construction and permits for future activity experienced unexpected strength.  Even Dr. Doom himself, NYU professor Nouriel Roubini, the man best known for predicting the current crisis, reversed course and claimed the global economy would move out of recession by late 2009.

The minutes from the June Fed meeting showed that policymakers revised (positively) their forecasts for economic activity in 2009 and 2010, though they expect the unemployment situation to remain weak through next year.  Most Fed watchers do not see any change in the funds rate for the foreseeable future.

On another note, numerous renown economists (about 200), including a few Nobel prize winners, called on Congress to cease the grandstanding and stop criticizing the Fed’s handling of the financial crisis and economic downturn (particularly Bernanke’s “tactics” surrounding the Bank of America/Merrill Lynch deal).  The strongly worded letter by some of the nation’s sharpest minds stated that such politicizing could prove detrimental to the recovery.

Weekly Economic Calendar

Source: Market Recoils as CIT Edges Toward Bankruptcy