If passed, President Obama’s healthcare plan will reduce the quality and increase the cost of healthcare in America. But more importantly, it will severely undermine our already weak economy. To burden a country currently in the throes of a violent recession with such a bureaucratic albatross clearly illustrates the scarcity of economic intelligence in Washington.

In the first place, specifically taxing the rich to pay for healthcare for the uninsured is the wrong way to think about tax policy and is an unconstitutional redistribution of wealth. While the government has the constitutional power to tax to “promote the general welfare,” it does not have the right to tax one group for the sole and specific benefit of another.

If the government wishes to finance national health insurance, the burden of paying for it should fall on every American. If that were the case, perhaps Congress would think twice before passing such a monstrosity.

In the second place, the healthcare bill is just bad economics. For an administration that supposedly wants to create jobs, this bill is one of the biggest job-killers yet devised. By increasing the marginal income tax rate on high earners (an extra 5.4% on incomes above $1 million), it reduces the incentives for small business owners to expand their companies.

When you combine this tax hike with the higher taxes that will kick in once the Bush tax-cuts expire, and add in the higher income taxes being imposed by several states, many business owners might simply choose not to put in the extra effort necessary to expand their businesses. Or, given the diminishing returns on their labor, they may choose to enjoy more leisure. More leisure for employers means fewer jobs for employees.

More directly, mandating insurance coverage for employees increases the cost of hiring workers. Under the terms of the bill, small businesses that do not provide insurance will be required to pay a tax as high as 8% of their payroll. Since most small businesses currently cannot afford to grant 8% across-the-board pay hikes, they will have to offset these costs by reducing wages. However, for employees working at the minimum wage, the only way for employers to offset the costs would be through layoffs.

The uninsured self-employed, or those working as independent contractors, will be forced to buy insurance or pay a tax equal to 2.5% of annual income. Either choice will divert resources from more productive uses into an already out-of-control healthcare bureaucracy.

Sadly, the bill does nothing to restrain or alter the dynamics that have caused healthcare costs to spiral ever higher. In fact, the bill will intensify these pressures.
The simplest explanation of why healthcare costs so much is that demand exceeds supply. Demand is a function of how much people are prepared to pay. Insuring more people will drive demand for healthcare services even higher.

As costs continue to soar, expect additional tax hikes to fund the added expense. As these additional taxes further encumber a weak economy, the diminished tax base will yield lower total tax revenues – despite higher rates. As the politicians attempt to pass higher tax increases to make up for revenue shortfalls, a vicious cycle toward insolvency will ensue.

The worst part of the whole fiasco is trying to imagine the bureaucracy necessary to administer this plan. My guess is that the government provider will mis-price its policies on the low side, pushing employers to dump private sector insurance for the taxpayer-subsidized alternative. Such a system will further distort healthcare pricing and, ultimately, make a bad situation intolerable.

The enormity, complexity, and expense of this bill could well pull the rug out from what many of my cheerleading colleagues believe to be the beginning of an economic recovery. The way I see it, the economy is walking dead anyway, and this measure is the equivalent of a stake through the heart. But even if we manage to escape the grave this time, Congress is working on a few other ideas that will surely keep us buried.

Source: Obama’s Healthcare Plan: A Prescription for Disaster

[Editor's Note: Peter D. Schiff, Euro Pacific Capital Inc.'s president and chief global strategist, is a well-known author and commentator, and is a periodic contributor to Money Morning. Schiff is the author of two New York Times best sellers: "Crash Proof: How to Profit from the Coming Economic Collapse," as well as "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets." For a more-detailed look at the United States' ongoing financial problems - and for some strategies that will help you protect your wealth and preserve your purchasing power before it's too late - download EuroPac's brand-new free special report, "Peter Schiff's Five Favorite Investment Choices for the Next Five Years." After one of the most-torrid rebounds on record this spring, U.S. stocks have stalled - once forcing investors to make important decisions against a backdrop of intense uncertainty. However, a a new offerfrom Money Morning seeks to eradicate at least some of that uncertainty, and actually represents a two-part bargain for investors by offering a Schiff best-selling investment book and a subscription to The Money Map Report newsletter. Schiff's new book - "The Little Book of Bull Moves in Bear Markets" - shows investors how to profit no matter which way the market moves, while our monthly newsletter,The Money Map Report, provides ongoing analysis of the global financial markets and some of the best profit plays you'll find anywhere. To find out how to get both, Check out our newest offer.]

• British GDP shrank 2.4% in the 1Q (more than the 1.9% shrinkage expected)
• The VIX – a widely used measure of market volatility is – fell 25 points. But it’s still 25% higher than average.
• US equity trading volume is also down – signaling a lack of demand… and a possible sagging in the recent bear market rally
• US Treasury yields have remained more or less unchanged over the month of June despite the boys at the Department of the Treasury flooding the market with an impressive $176 billion in new issuance
• Crude oil prices are up over $71 a barrel. Meanwhile, the IEA has lowered its forecast for oil consumption. (There is enough storage for 62 days of global consumption – 10 days above Opec’s stated goal.)
• June auto sales are will come in at about 10 million units annualized. This is less than 50% their peak and roughly back at levels last seen in the 1960s.

Rosenberg writes that “the crisis at the lower levels of government in the US is now so intense that as many as TEN states may not have a budget prepared for the fiscal year that is about to commence next month!”

Wow!

Notes faithful will be aware that we view the fiscal crisis in California as a precursor of what’s to come in America. The mechanics of this are very simple. The government spends too much money out of an empty pocket to appease and please. It relies on a just about half of the population (according to the IRS the top 50% of earners pay 97% of income taxes) to contribute the majority of the tax revenues. This upside down pyramid eventually topples (revenues shrink while spending increases), and the government is thrown into a “budget crisis” (which is really a spending crisis by a different name).

The US federal government isn’t far behind state governments (a) because it has a larger tax base to rely on and (b) because it can borrow seemingly infinite amounts of money on the international debt markets thanks to the dollar’s status as world’s reserve currency (foreign governments and banks need dollars to buy a wide range of commodities, which are priced in the US currency).

But one day (sooner rather than later in our humble opinion) foreign buyers of US debt wake up and realize that huge increase of dollar-denominated debt on the market is causing the value of the buck to decline… and they look for alternatives.

This is happening already. China and its fellow “Bric” nations, Brazil, Russia and India are already vocalizing their discontent with the dollar-pegged system. The problem is they don’t yet have an alternative mechanism to the dollar. But they’re working on it. And when they come up with an answer to their dilemma, $174 billion in Treasury bonds a month will no longer find a happy home. The feds will have no alternative but to raise yields to attract investors. Higher yields mean higher borrowing rates overall, which mean you can forget about a sustained recovery or a return to the golden years of US economic dominance.

According to Rosie, the situation in the ten problem US states “is so acute that state governments are now threatening to go after unused gift cards for sales revenues — affecting $7 billion of income for the retailing sector.”

Nobody seemed particularly interested in the far greater scam being pulled off on a daily basis by the US government (a scam that, incidentally, pays for Judge Chin’s salary and Madoff’s stay in the “big house”).

But it’s clear to us here at Notes at least that the government’s $15 billion a day borrowing habit dwarfs Madoff’s $65 billion Ponzi scheme.

As of June 18 2009, total US federal debt was $11,342,734,351,973 –  or about $36,989 for every American. This represents 82.5% of one year’s worth of US economic output as measured by GDP. President Obama’s 2010 budget estimates that total debt relative to GDP will rise to 97% by 2010 and stabilize at approximately 100% thereafter.

In other words, this borrowed money cannot be paid back. It is mathematically impossible – even if income taxes rose to 100%, which itself is impossible. Just paying the $260 billion in interest owed on the national debt (just over half what the government spent on defense last year) requires further borrowing. And the more the government borrows, the more it needs to borrow to pay off the interest owed.

It’s a generational Ponzi scheme of truly epic proportions. And one as sure to end in tears as poor old Bernie Madoff’s.

We’d also love to hear from Team Obama what the difference  is between the Madoff fraud and Social Security is. The answer, of course, is coercion. This from Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust (Hat tip, The Business Insider):

Both depend, or in the case of Madoff, depended, on being able to get new contributors into the scheme in order to pay off the previous contributors. The Social Security Administration has the power of the law to force new contributors into its scheme. Madoff did not have the power of the law to force new contributors into his scheme, therefore, he has been accused of breaking the law. Just another example of how it’s good to be the king.

The mainstream media was also strangely silent yesterday on the role Wall Street insiders played in legitimizing Madoff’s scam.

Many big finance insiders knew all too well that Madoff was a crook. Madoff’s returns were simply too good to be true. That’s why they invested in him. Problem is they thought he was inside trading, not a Ponzi scheme. This from ClusterStock.com:

For years and years I’ve heard people say that [Bernie's] investment performance was too good to be true. The returns were too steady – like GE earnings under Welch – and too high given the supposed strategy.

One Madoff investor, himself a legend, told me that Madoff’s performance “just doesn’t make sense. The numbers can’t be straight.” Another sophisticated Madoff investor actually went through trade confirms in order to reverse-engineer the strategy and said, “It doesn’t add up.”

So why did these smart and skeptical investors keep investing? They, like many Madoff investors, assumed Madoff was somehow illegally trading on information from his market-making business for their benefit. They didn’t consider the possibility that he was clean on that score but running a good old-fashioned Ponzi scheme.