“I don’t know if I will live to see it,” said Brazil’s president Luiz (Lula) da Silva a couple weeks ago. “But Brazil has to transform itself into a big power in the 21st century. We have everything to make it happen. We are not talking about a little country here.”

No, indeed. Brazil is not “a little country” anymore. Any prudent investor has to consider how to hitch a ride on the Brazil growth story. Brazil is transforming into one of the world’s great powers in this century. It’s important to follow the news from Brazil. At the same time, you have to know where to look, and how to read between the lines.

By official count — what the Brazilian government will confirm — the rocks of Brazil hold nearly 20 billion barrels of proven reserves. That number is on par with the total for U.S. oil reserves, including Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico.

It’s an impressive number, but then there’s also the unofficial Brazilian reserve count. How much oil is “really” down there under Brazilian jurisdiction? It depends with whom you talk. Some Brazilian officials will smile and say the country has 50 billion barrels of resources. If the Brazilians can tap into this treasure, it adds up to more than twice the total reserves of the U.S., including Alaska.

Other knowledgeable — VERY knowledgeable — Brazilians give much larger estimates. I’ve seen estimates that place the resource number at “over 100 billion barrels.” This puts Brazil in with the largest of the large oil nations, such as Iraq, Iran and Saudi Arabia.

These massive oil resources offshore Brazil lie beneath deep water and thick layers of salt. And since it’s all within Brazilian waters, the government of Brazil is increasing its control over offshore development. This way, Brazil will have its own oilmen keeping an eye out for the overall national interest — and making big money for the Brazilian treasury.

The new level of Brazil’s state control over oil development is a strategic decision. Brazil is counting on the hydrocarbon resources to help propel it forward as one of the world’s major powers. And the development in Brazil will control the destiny of a good number of players in the OI portfolio.

Many companies whose fate is tied to the wheel of the Brazilian ship of state are in that portfolio. All of them have operations that span the globe. They’re not a pure play on Brazilian energy development. Just the same, it’s nice to know that they’ll be pulling down a big chunk of business in one booming region over the next couple of decades. As I see it, these firms are long-term core holdings for any diversified energy portfolio.

Gold on the Move

This week, the price of gold touched $1,040 per ounce. Silver also took the elevator to higher floors, to now over $17 per ounce. It’s been good news for all of the gold and silver miners in the OI portfolio.

We’re way up on many of the miners I’ve added this year to the OI portfolio. Some of the beaten-down guys are also showing us their inner Lazarus as precious metals prices soar.

What’s with the Rising Tide?

I just love it when the stocks in the OI portfolio are going up. It beats the heck out of what we experienced last October with the meltdown, that’s for sure. And it makes it easier to be the editor of a financial newsletter that focuses on precious metals, energy and other natural resources.

What’s going on? What’s with the rising tide? I believe we’re seeing some short covering in the precious metals arena. It has always amazed me in the past couple of years that there were people out there shorting gold. Huh? It’s like that scene from the movie The Deer Hunter in which Robert De Niro is playing Russian roulette with a pistol holding bullets in the chambers. You don’t have to be crazy to short gold, but it helps.

I may not have the same eyesight today as back when I flew Navy jets. But how close do you have to look to see that the U.S. dollar is in trouble? Yet people still want to bet on the dollar and against gold? Hey, it’s a free country. And I’ve spent the past few years feeling pretty lonely at times as I described my vision of monetary gloom and doom.

So now the dollar is dropping due to bad news on many fronts. The U.S. economy is NOT “recovering,” contrary to the propaganda from Washington. Unemployment is up, and it’ll stay up for a long time. There’s a structural readjustment going on within the U.S. economy, and it’ll take years (maybe decades) to play out. Meanwhile, U.S. tax policy, energy policy and the overall political process are a train wreck in living color. Can anyone explain to me how this has a happy ending?

The world, of course, is noticing. Now we read about a group of nations (the usual suspects, but add in modern allies Japan and France) trying to figure out how to ditch the dollar and use some other medium of exchange to trade oil. It’s not exactly a new rumor, but now it’s getting traction. And like people smelling smoke in a crowded theater, dollar holders are looking for the exit signs.

Is anyone surprised at this? How much fiscal and monetary abuse can the greenback stand? Hence, the precious metals prices are levitating.

We’ll probably see a pullback in precious metals prices, but that’s just going to be profit taking and the market working its magic. Long term, the metals are still going up.

It’s part of the long-term thesis of Outstanding Investments. Go with precious metals. Go with energy plays. Go with solid resource plays.

Until we meet again,
Byron King

Source: Energy, Brazil, Gold: What More Could You Want?

Unlike some stockpickers and newsletter analysts, who proudly trumpet all their winners, while shuffling the losers under the rug, I have no problem admitting when my calls go against me.

And to the delight of all the naysayers, this happened just a couple of days ago when gold prices shot to a record high. That triggered my sell-stop and, rather than let my pride come before a fall and hang on, it’s time to move on.

Don’t get me wrong, though… I’m still convinced that the yellow metal could suffer a correction for three main reasons…

• So far, inflation hasn’t reared its ugly head. If it stays in hiding much longer, disillusioned investors will probably head for the exits.
• If the U.S. economy recovers quicker than expected, investors will be inclined to abandon the safe haven of gold and reinvest in equities.
• The technicals point to a drop. The last four times gold spiked near or above $1,000 per ounce, it quickly (and sometimes precipitously) corrected.

However, giving into these convictions – and doubling down on gold – would mean abandoning two core investing disciplines that I swear by – position sizing and trailing-stops…

Have You Considered Using Trailing Stops & Position Sizing?

I know… you’ve heard about them countless times before. But indulge me for a moment, as I explain an aspect of both trailing stops and position sizing that you’ve probably never considered…

• When I speak at investment conferences, I always like to ask people to share their biggest loser. Heads go down and nary a hand rises.
• Conversely, when I ask them to share their biggest winner, it’s like I just offered free candy to an auditorium full of kindergarteners. Everyone’s hand shoots up and there’s a chorus of anxious, “Oohs!”

Nobody likes to talk about losing investments. Instead, we want to thump our chest over the latest 1,000% gainer. The reason for that is obvious, so let’s focus on the fear about talking about our losers.

Many investors turn their biggest loser into a total loss. Instead of employing a trailing-stop and exiting a trade as the price tumbles, they make it a long-term investment to save face. Or worse, they invest more at lower prices. Most times, the stock goes belly up and they lose even more.

Even the professionals can’t claim immunity here.

• For instance, take Bill Miller, the famous manager of the Legg Mason Value Trust Fund (LMVFX). Although Miller beat the S&P 500 for 15 consecutive years, he refused to man up to his mistakes when the market took a nosedive in 2008. He kept averaging down in stocks like Countrywide, Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac (NYSE:FRE), Merrill Lynch, Washington Mutual (OTC:WAMUQ) and AIG.
• He revealed the true depth of his arrogance when he was asked how he knew when to stop buying a falling stock. “When we can no longer get a quote,” he replied. In other words, the only price at which he was unwilling to buy more was zero.

Here’s my point…

Avoid Losses With A Position Sizing & Trailing Stop Discipline

When I joined The Oxford Club, I immediately stopped worrying about my losses. That’s because we religiously adhere to a 25% trailing-stop discipline and a position size of no more than 4% in any one investment. Thus, losses are always contained.

The beauty of such a simple, disciplined approach is two-fold…

• The results add up, decidedly on the plus side. Case in point: The independent Hulbert Financial Digest has ranked The Oxford Club newsletter (The Communiqué) among the top five in the nation. That’s based on 10-year returns, too.
• A trailing-stop and position sizing policy allow me to keep making bold calls without regret. The bolder they are, the smaller my position size.

For instance, for my short gold call, I only invested 2%. For a hypothetical $100,000 portfolio, that means investing  $2,000 and losing $500, or less than 1% of the total portfolio value.

Bottom line: I don’t ever let an investment turn into an unacceptable loss. And I never put too many eggs in one basket. Sure I might lose 25% here or 25% there, but when I keep my position sizes small, in the grand scheme of things, it’s no big deal.

Such a strategy leaves me with plenty of capital to re-deploy and keep gunslinging. And while gold didn’t work out, some other contrarian bets are already making up for the loss and then some.

• Take Sotheby’s (NYSE: BID), for example. Back in June, I advised readers to buy shares when everyone else believed the market for investing in fine art was going into a long hibernation. The fundamentals faltered, but they didn’t collapse. As a result, Sotheby’s rallied 68% from my entry point.
• Then there’s my recommendation last Thursday to buy into the beleaguered retail sector with hhgregg (NYSE: HGG). It’s up 5.7% since then.

If I take profits on both now, my misstep by shorting gold doesn’t even matter.

The Critical Component to a Disciplined Investment Approach: Accountability

But of course, a disciplined investment approach is useless without the critical component of accountability… In terms of position sizing, there’s only one person who can keep you honest: Yourself.

But when it comes to implementing trailing-stops, multiple options exist…

• A So-So Option: Enter the stop levels with your broker. However, this is not ideal. Market makers can manipulate prices to trigger these stops.
• A Better Option: Use a service like TradeStops (www.tradestops.com). For a nominal annual fee, it will alert you via text message and/or e-mail when your stocks hit their trailing-stops.
• The Best Option: Excuse my bias, but the best value for your money is The Oxford Club. We constantly remind you about position sizing and more importantly, notify you immediately when we hit a stop-loss or trailing-stop. And our members keep each other honest.

In addition, membership also comes with a constant stream of high quality, profitable recommendations. And they make up for the occasional downer, like my short gold recommendation! To find out more, take a few minutes to read our report on how it all works.

Good investing,

Louis Basenese

Source: Two Tips to Avoid Letting a Bad Stock Sucker-Punch You

Yesterday, it touched a new record – $1,050 – even as the dollar rose, oil slumped under $70 and stocks dipped very slightly.

Well, what do you expect? The United States added $1 trillion to its monetary base in the last year or so. The federal government is running a deficit of $1.7 trillion this year. And along comes Barack Obama with an idea to stimulate employment – spend more money! This time, Obama’s plan is a kind of ‘Cash for Workers’ program…in which businesses get a tax credit for hiring new employees.

Gold investors must think the new program will be the straw they’ve been waiting for. Government has piled on bales of costly new initiatives on this poor camel’s back. Still, he stands up straight.

So, is gold at $1,000 a bargain…or a trap? Or both.

We begin by asking: where’s the inflation? We don’t see any inflation. What we do see is deflation.

Barclays Capital says gold could go to $1,500. We don’t know where they got that number. It could go to $15,000 for all we know. Or it could go down, too.

Our guess is that it will go down enough scare the bejesus out of speculators. Then, it will soar.

But, hey, we’re just guessing – along with everyone else.

Sooner or later gold is probably headed to the lunatic moon. We’re sticking with the yellow metal. We don’t want to miss that ride.

But when?

Ah…we’re going to stick our necks out and say “eventually.” We’re sure we’re right about this. Just don’t ask us for more precision; we have none. And what bothers us is that between eventually and now there could be a lot of time and a lot of trouble. And one trouble that could come up pretty fast is another crash in the stock market.

If the stock markets of the world take another dive…like they did last year…gold will probably go down with them. Not as much, but down nonetheless. So, if we were speculating…we’d probably be short gold and short stocks too. We’d bet against bonds too – even though we think they will probably go up in the short run. The smart, long term money – in both stocks and bonds – is probably on the short side.

Here at The Daily Reckoning, however, we never speculate – except in print. As to ideas about how the world works we have plenty. We speculate daily. As to gold, stocks and commodities, we prefer to hold onto our long-term positions.

What seems fairly sure to us is that this recovery is a fraud. It’s a mountebank and a flimflam.

And now approaches a moment of truth – earnings announcements. Stock market investors bid up shares on the theory that sales and profits would rise. Will they? We don’t think so.

We think sales are going to be disappointing…and earnings will be even worse. If so, we’ll see analysts begin to change their expectations…and announce that the results are “not as bad as expected.”

If we get a few really bad announcements – with results much worse than expected – it could sink the rally. Then again, if we’re surprised with exceptionally good reports…it could send the market in the other direction.

Good results will also cause us here at The Daily Reckoning to question our position. Maybe the economy is not sinking into a chronic depression, after all. Could we be wrong?

Ha ha…are you kidding, dear reader? Of course, we can be wrong. When we were younger we were uncertain about things. But now that we’re older, we’re not so sure.

Here is what we’re pretty sure about:

1) The credit cycle has topped out.

Americans are saving – think of the poor boomers, 10 years older but not a penny richer than they were in 1999. Stocks have gone nowhere but down in real terms. Houses hit a high in 2006…now, they’re off 30%…and still going down. Jobs? Forget it…there are already 15 million people who are unemployed and about 200,000 more every month. The job market is unlikely to recover for another 6-13 years – that is, after many of the boomers are retired! And if you are lucky enough to have a job, you’re not likely to get a raise…not with so much spare capacity in the labor market.

Under those conditions, a consumer boom is very unlikely.

2) We know that a period of credit contraction is deflationary.

Prices go down as demand falls. Buyers disappear from the malls that once knew them, while the factories that produce stuff grow dusty and quiet.

But we know the feds hate falling prices. And we know they are taking extraordinary actions to get prices to go up. So far, their efforts have been a giant flop. Prices are falling in the United States at the fastest pace since the ’50s.

Most of the feds’ efforts have been directed towards keeping the bankers fat and happy…and getting themselves a bigger share of America’s output. They took funds designed to relaunch the US economy, for example, and used them to buy themselves a big position in the auto industry, the financial industry and the insurance industry.

3) We know too, by the way they conducted themselves in those affairs, that the feds have become much more aggressive…throwing their weight around in the private sector as never before.

What we don’t know is how this affects markets in the short term. So far, consumer prices are falling, but the stock market is enjoying a bounce. It is a real, new bull market? Or just a bear market bounce? It is probably a bear market bounce…but it has been going for long enough that we have to at least consider the idea that it is a genuine bull market. That’s why the numbers from this quarter are important…they’ll tell us if the companies themselves are expanding earnings fast enough to justify investors’ optimism.

4) We know too that there is a whole lot of ’flation going on.

We are just unable to tell you what kind of ’flation it is. The monetary base is way up – it increased by $1 trillion in the last 12 months. But the money-in-circulation has barely budged. The feds give the banks overnight loans at practically zero interest. Then, the banks lend it back to the feds at nearly 4% more.

What happens to it then? Well, what do you think…it is wasted on typical federal government scams and humbugs.

So, relatively little of the money actually ends up in the consumer economy. And so, we can’t tell you whether the ’flation will have a ‘in’ prefix or a ‘de’ prefix. They’re just two letters. But they will make a whole alphabet of difference to the economy and to your investments.

5) Most important, we are dead sure that the people running America’s financial policies are jackasses.

We say that with all due respect, which is probably not much. They have only one idea – and it is a bad one. They think economies are improved by more consumer spending. They don’t seem to care why consumers occasionally cut back on their spending. All that matters to them is finding ways to get the consumer shopping again. So they try tax cuts and government spending…bailouts and boondoggles…zero interest lending and federal takeovers…cash for clunkers, cash for houses, cash for employees….

…trillions worth of claptrap and folderol. But what a nuisance! The fool consumer still won’t shop!

But they’re determined to keep trying. That’s why we can be pretty sure that, eventually, they’ll get inflation rates up. One way or another. And then, gold at $1000 will seem like an outrageous bargain.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner

Source: Gold Touches a New Record

Good day… And a Thunderin’ Thursday to you! It’s raining here in St. Louis, so, it must be Thursday! It’s a big night for yours truly, but I’ll talk about that at the end… We’ve got some big moves going on in the currencies and metals, so we had better get to it, and save the chit-chat for later, eh? But first, today is the funding deadline on our latest BRIC MarketSafe CD… We’ll have one more in November and then that’s it!

OK, front and center this morning, Gold has soared to another all-time high! When I turned on the screen this morning, Gold was flashing a great big $1,055 figure… WOW! But wait! OK, now that sounded like an infomercial… But wait! If you act now, you can get double the Ginsu knives! HA! OK, getting back to the original, but wait… Gold and Silver for that matter, aren’t the only risk assets moving higher this morning… All 16 of the countries that are deemed to be the biggest U.S. trading partners, have currencies that are taking liberties VS the dollar this morning…

Basically, it’s like this folks… We keep seeing signs that a global recovery is taking place, I mean, the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) even hiked rates this week for crying out loud! And… With those signs of recovery, come the feelings that global rates will be rising, as witnessed by the RBA this week, and with global rates rising, the yield differential to the dollar becomes even greater in favor of the non-dollar currencies.

This is quite evident, when you look out on the currency landscape and see that Aussie dollars (A$) are trading with a 90-cent handle… Brazilian reals are trading 36% higher VS the dollar since March 1st!

Why did I highlight those two currencies? Well, as has been well documented, the RBA already hiked rates and increased their rate differential to the dollar this week, with the thought that they would come back again in November for another rate hike… And Brazil? Yesterday, I saw a story flash across the screen that the Brazilian Central Bank Gov. is mentioning at least 200 BPS of rate hikes before he leaves office next year! Talk about increasing the rate / yield differential!

Yesterday, I talked to you about the euro, and explained why it had not participated with the other currencies’ assault on the dollar… Well, the Big Dog /euro got off the porch to stretch its legs and chase the dollar down the street a bit last night… The euro is trading with an eye toward 1.48…

I’m waiting for some data to print from Germany this morning before I go on… So let’s wait a bit… OK, I’m back now… Well, keeping with the theme that a global recovery is taking place, German Industrial Production rose in August 1.7% from a decline in July. As reported here about a month ago, Germany exited their recession in the 2nd QTR, posting a positive, albeit negligible, GDP… I expect their 3rd QTR to be a bit stronger, as they build on this nascent recovery.

The European Central Bank (ECB) meets this morning, in fact, they’re meeting as I write… I don’t expect the ECB to move rates, announce any quantitative easing, or anything like that… What I’m half expecting though is for ECB President, Trichet, to attempt to put a tourniquet around the dollar, to stop the bleeding… Hey! Nobody in the U.S. is fighting to keep the dollar strong, so somebody has to!

OK… I’ve explained this many times before, but for the new readers, it’s really something that needs to be understood… Look, the ECB and Trichet, know all too well that the U.S. has painted itself into a corner, and the dollar is getting punished for their actions… And, they understand that all they would have to do is talk glowingly about the euro and it would deep six the dollar in a heartbeat! But what good would that do? It’s far better to just keep the lips zipped shut, and watch a general, slow, depreciation of the dollar… So… The euro’s run to the high 1.47 handle this morning, could be at risk to what Trichet has to say… But remember folks, he’s just wrapping a tourniquet around the dollar, it’s not like he’s in love with the dollar and the fundamentals behind it!

Last night, I was doing some reading / research and came across a story that really piqued my interest… Here’s a snippet from the Bloomberg…

“Central banks are diversifying away from the dollar “more aggressively,” according to Barclays Plc, the world’s third-largest currency trader.
The dollar accounted for 37 percent of the $115 billion foreign reserves central banks amassed in the second quarter, after adjustment for exchange-rate changes during the period, compared with 52 percent in the euro, according to a Barclays analysis of data that the International Monetary Fund released on Sept. 30. That was the first time that the dollar’s share fell below 40 percent in the new accumulated foreign reserves of $100 billion or more since the euro’s 1999 debut.”

Remember, about a week or so ago, when I told you that the IMF’s currency report basically showed a move away from the dollar too…

HEY! IF CENTRAL BANKS ARE DIVERSIFYING, SHOULDN’T YOU BE DOING IT TOO?

OH! And there was this quote from Canada’s Finance Minister, Flaherty said…”We are all concerned about the U.S. dollar”…

And then there was this… Haven’t you heard about the guy, known as the Cheater? it seems every day now, you hear people say now, Look out for the cheater, make way for the fool-hearted clown, look out for the cheater, he’s gonna build you up just to let you down… Come on… We all know who I’m talking about, you know him, you love him… It’s U.S. Treasury Sec. Tim Geithner!

Yes, the man that was in charge the NY Fed, and oversaw the banks in that region, of which, most of them needed TARP money didn’t they? Any way… The thing I want to talk about is his latest statement about the dollar… Here’s Timmy! “officials recognize that the dollar’s important role in the system conveys special burdens and responsibilities on us, and we are going to do everything necessary to make sure we sustain confidence.”

Yeah, sure you are… How many Treasuries have you auctioned off this year? Something like $1.6 Trillion? Now, that will give everyone in the world a warm and fuzzy about the dollar’s future won’t it? NOT!

OK, I had better go on to something else before I get too wound up!

The Bank of England (BOE) is also meeting this morning… And after an awful set of economic reports in the past month, the BOE members are scratching their heads and wondering what to do next… They cut rates to the bone… They’ve bought toxic assets from financial institutions… They’ve nationalized a few companies that were about to go under… They spent money on stimulus packages… And they’ve implemented Quantitative Easing…

Sounds like the U.S. doesn’t it? I’ll tell you who else it sounds like… It sounds like Japan in the last decade… I hate to be the one to half to tell these dolts that none of this works! It just makes a laughing stock out of your Central Bank, and puts your currency on the slippery slope downward…

Oh, but not to worry, Tim Geithner is maintaining the confidence in the dollar… ( I guess no one told Canada’s Finance Minister, eh?)

Again, Chuck, go on to something else, and quit coming back to this!

Well… Earlier in the Pfennig this morning, I told you about the rise in the A$… I didn’t tell you that it was trading at a 14-month high, as it was reported that Australian employment surged 40,600 in September! With a print like this, I think that’s it’s almost a given now that the RBA comes back in November and hikes rates again!

Another currency at a 14-month high is the New Zealand dollar / kiwi… Remember how I’ve told you about the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Gov. Bollard, and his penchant for jawboning kiwi lower? I despise him for these things, as a Central Banker, your job is to protect the value of your currency, not diss it!

Well, now Bollard has company… New Zealand Finance Minister, Bill English, has this to say… “We’re uncomfortable with it (kiwi) at this stage in the economic cycle.” You see, Mr. English is concerned that the economic recovery will be stamped out with a strong kiwi… Well, I’ve got a cure for you Mr. English… Tell Bollard and the boys over at the RBNZ not to raise interest rates, and that will do the trick! It’ll stop the speculation in its tracks! However, if the RBNZ does raise rates next month, then you have no one to blame but yourselves!

OK… Let’s get back to Gold, before we head to the recap and the Big Finish!

I did a video yesterday on Gold… And I talked about how you can go about your life without an inflation hedge in your back pocket and suffer the consequences of not only having your purchasing power reduced by the falling dollar, but having what dollars you have left eaten away by inflation… OR… you can get that inflation hedge… and put it away for a rainy day… or pull out to play it like a “Get Out of Jail Free Card” when inflation hits…

To recap… Gold has soared to another all-time high of $1,055 overnight. And the non-dollar currencies are all gaining VS the dollar on the thoughts that a global recovery will result in wider yield differentials in those currencies VS the dollar. A$ and kiwi have both traded at 14-month highs overnight… And… We could see some downside risk to the euro if ECB President Trichet decides to defend the dollar today after the ECB meeting this morning.

Currencies today 10/8/09: A$ .9050, kiwi .7398, C$ .9475, euro 1.4770, sterling 1.6060, Swiss .9745, rand 7.3440, krone 5.6545, SEK 6.9890, forint 182.75, zloty 2.8655, koruna 17.4375, RUB 29.60, yen 88.30, sing 1.39, HKD 7.75, INR 46.36, China 6.8260, pesos 13.31, BRL 1.7480, dollar index 76.03, Oil $70.23, 10-year 3.19%, Silver $17.84, and Gold… $1,055.08

That’s it for today… Have a Thunderin’ Thursday.

Chuck Butler

Source: Gold Soars To Another All-Time High!

He noted that “These people who were often truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government. All of this behavior supporting the aristocracy,” he says, “only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America.”

This goes along with an article in the St. Petersburg Times about Tom James, chairman and chief executive of Raymond, James Financial, who had “some tough words for the wizards of Washington, DC who oversaw the $700-billion bailout package”.

He reports, “The Brave And Wonderful Mogambo (BAWM) was right all along! Those government weenies are the biggest freaking morons you ever saw, and we as a country should be ashamed of ourselves for having elected such corrupt, half-witted, utter failures and congenital idiots!”

As you have probably guessed by now, he did not say those exact words, but he implied every syllable when he said, “Legislators were almost embarrassingly ignorant of how the financial system works”, which I figure explains how they don’t understand the linkage between their own Bad, Bad Performance (BBP) as legislators and the subsequent Bad, Bad Performance (BBP) of the economy, and he says that only 3 of 16 legislators that he talked to actually understood what was going on in the “credit crisis.” Less than 20%! Hahaha! We’re doomed!

Well, maybe these Congressional losers will understand the unfolding economic slowdown, as evidenced by the Baltic Dry Index, which is an index of the cost to transport stuff by cargo ship, and which has fallen precipitously, which seems very important to me, and to Junior Mogambo Ranger (JMR) Riccardo, too, who is also alarmed by this like – as I previously said – me.

It’s actually beyond scary, in a terrifying kind of “ain’t nobody buying nothing in a consumer economy” kind of way, which means that without the consumer buying stuff as his or her contribution to the famous statistic of “the consumer is 70% of the economy”, we are, in case you ain’t heard, freaking doomed!

Well, maybe not all buying is drying up, as silver market analyst, Ted Butler, reports that in the last 10 months, “some 150 million ounces of silver can easily be documented to have been bought by investors. Undocumented purchases would add tens of millions more ounces.”

In fact, when you add it all up, “Investment demand for silver this year is running at a full 25% of world mine production and over 20% of total production (including recycling). This is a remarkable historical turnabout.”

Thus, it is easy to see why Mr. Butler is “bullish beyond belief for silver”, since this kind of demand means that “In silver, the documented 150 million ounces bought in the first ten months of this year is equal to 15% of all the silver bullion equivalent thought to exist!” Wow!

More than one-seventh of all the silver bullion “thought to exist” in the whole world was suddenly bought up in less than a year, and yet the price of silver has been pounded down to less than 10 bucks an ounce? No wonder I am so bullish on silver!

He also notes that the gold/silver ratio is at more than 80, which is “one of the biggest differences in history.”

And not only that, but since there are 4 to 5 billion ounces of gold in the world versus only 1 billion ounces of silver, that means that “the total dollar value of all the gold in the world is worth 300 to 400 times more than all the silver in the world (80 times 4 or 5)”.

Talk about undervalued! Hey! This investing stuff is easy! Whee!

Until next time,

The Mogambo Guru

Source: A Bull in a Silver Shop

Well… Friday’s Jobs Jamboree did disappoint as I had the feeling they would, printing a disappointing -263,000 jobs lost in September. The Unemployment Rate also rose to 9.8%… Now we all know that when all the people that are truly unemployed are counted, that the Unemployment Rate goes to 16%, but the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will have none of that so-called counting ACTUAL Unemployed people!

On a sidebar, a reader sent me a note and said that I need to remember that the difference between the weekly initial jobless claims, and the Jobs Jamboree is that the Jobs Jamboree “nets” out the jobs created to the ones lost, while the Weekly Claims only counts jobs lost… And that’s fair… I truly understand… The point I’ve tried to make and probably didn’t do such a good job at, was to say… The BLS could use the Weekly Claims as their starting point… But they don’t… They use a “survey” instead… Dolts all of them!

So, the non-dollar currencies acted a little strangely on Friday after the Jobs report… The trading pattern for 9 months now has been to reward the non-dollar currencies whenever the data was good for the U.S. (one realizes that this is the exact opposite of what currencies trading on fundamentals would do). However, on Friday… When the disappointing jobs report printed, the currencies reacted as they SHOULD! The rallied against the dollar! Holy Cow Batman, are we returning to Fundamentals? I don’t know, folks… But we did on Friday…

Then this past weekend the G-7 Finance Ministers met and left… Without a word about the currencies… So, the rumor going ’round on Friday morning that G-7 was going to hand over the currency watchdog duties to G-20, must be true… The thing that a lot of traders are looking at right now, is the fact that G-7 hasn’t said that they were handing over their currency watchdog duties, and they ended their meeting with no statement whatsoever that they were concerned with dollar weakness…

So… Traders not willing to believe the rumors, and still thinking that G-7 is the currency watchdog until otherwise stated, believe that G-7 was giving the green light to further dollar weakness… For, if it’s not a concern of the G-7 Finance Ministers, then why should it be a concern of those wanting to take the dollar lower?

And take it lower they have… But, not by leaps and bounds mind you… No, this has been a 1/2-cent move… It’s as though the traders are “testing the waters” to see if their thoughts on G-7 are correct or not…

The euro also breathed a sigh of relief when the results of the Lisbon Treaty vote in Ireland printed yesterday… In a substantially decided vote (67% to 33%) the Irish voted in favor of the Treaty, which now goes to Poland and Czech Republic, who are the only two left to ratify the Treaty… There are some rumors going around that the Czech Republic (CR) might hold it up, causing a delay, which could deep six the whole thing…

Speaking of the euro… The European Central Bank (ECB) meets this Thursday… Look for rates to remain unchanged…. However, recently, ECB President, Trichet has been propping up the dollar with statements about dollar strength here and there… Remember, he HAS TO DO THIS! He can not be seen banging the drum for a stronger euro… That could deep six the dollar in a heartbeat… So…on Thursday this week, the markets will be listening to Trichet’s statement following the rate announcement to see if he “props up the dollar” again…

And speaking of rate announcements… The BIG ONE tonight is the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) While I think that Rocktober is too early for a rate hike, what I’m looking for is any indication that November will be the month we see the first rate hike after the 2 years of rate cuts around the world. I’m going out on the limb here and saying that the RBA will hike rates 25 BPS next month! So… Put that in your calendar to see if I’m bang on or just plain whiffed at the pitch!

Recall, that at one time it looked as though Norway’s Norges Bank would be the first to raise rates, but the RBA has edged in front now… But, that’s not that bad of thing to be the first loser, or 2nd place as most people call it, as long as the Norges Bank comes through on the rate hike… Right now, it looks as though the Norges Bank will wait until December…

Rate differentials can and should go a very long way toward currency strength… It’s not the end-all, as the Japanese yen can attest to… But, for the most part, it carries a lot of weight in currency valuation… And that’s the reason I make such a big deal out of the RBA And Norges Bank being the first Central Banks to raise rates… They already enjoy a rate differential to the dollar… And rate hikes will simply widen that differential…

So, when investors around the world want to find yield… They will look for countries that have rate differentials to the base rate in their country… And the wider the better!

Well, that is, as long as we’re not talking about a country that is whacked out, corrupt, politically unstable, or unable to attract foreign investment, so they hike rates up to levels that stand out like a man with a hatchet in his head!

So… Back to Australia for a moment… The A$ really recovered nicely after the G-7 “no-statement” I’m sure some traders are taking a flyer that the RBA would spring a surprise rate hike tonight… So, the downside risk for the A$ tomorrow is there, slightly… But today, it’s all seashells and balloons for the A$!

Gold remained above $1,000 overnight… It sure looks to me, as though the price of Gold is simply forming a new base at $1,000, before moving on to higher levels… But, that’s just me… I don’t have a crystal ball, and I don’t read tea leaves! Just an opinion on what it looks like to me… Which is why I’ve changed my line… Remember, 6-9 months ago, when I would say that I thought it to be a good idea to look to buy on the dips below $900? Well, I’m changing that to look to buy on the dips below $1,000…

Not that I want to “jinx” the Indian rupee, but I’ve noticed the past couple of weeks, how the rupee has been gaining VS the dollar… Inch by inch, the moves aren’t anything to shake the earth, but they are positive moves VS the dollar nonetheless! So… Good show rupee!

You know… Over the past couple of years, you’ve got to have noticed how the once “fringe countries” like India, and Brazil, are the ones doing all the right things and pulling the right strings with their economies, while the U.S. continues to walk the plank of catastrophe!

Well, after last week’s data deluge, the data cupboard takes a break today and tomorrow, coming back on Wednesday with the Monthly Budget Statement… The Budget Deficit in the U.S. has become the focal point of dollar bears… The Budget Deficit continues to grow, as the deficit spending continues to go on and on, like the Energizer Bunny! The rest of the week is pretty low-key with regards to data. Friday, we’ll see the latest Trade Deficit… So, the “Twin Deficits” on display this week…

So… To recap, the Jobs Jamboree was very disappointing with job losses shooting up to 263,000 in September. G-7 did not make any statement about the currencies, so traders have taken that to mean they don’t care about how weak the dollar is… The RBA meets tonight, and I’m looking for them to raise rates next month, not tonight. And Gold is back above $1,000…

Currencies today 10/5/09: A$ .8745, kiwi .7205, C$ .9310, euro 1.4625, sterling 1.5940, Swiss .9675, rand 7.6090, krone 5.7770, SEK 7.04, forint 182.85, zloty 2.8840, koruna 17.3870, RUB 30.08, yen 89.90, sing 1.4105, HKD 7.75, INR 47.55, China 6.8264, pesos 13.60, BRL 1.7815, dollar index 76.86, Oil $69.16, 10-year 3.20%, Silver $16.23, and Gold… $1,004

That’s it for today…I hope yours is Marvelous!

Chuck Butler

Source: Jobs Disappoint…

The new movie – Zombieland – about a group of survivors in a world of zombies, was the biggest grossing film in America and Canada over the weekend. It must reflect the zeitgeist of the North American public…a deep feeling that we are living in a decaying world.

Maybe it comes from the growing awareness that the old bubble economy of the 2002-2007 period is dead. Now, survivors must defend themselves from the zombies.

Survivors are being attacked in the streets, in their homes, and at their workplaces. Zombie banks – kept alive by artificial stimulants provided by the feds – take their money and their houses. Living-dead companies block new competitors. And the zombies at the Fed and the Treasury department try to gnaw on their savings, encouraging inflation to eat away the purchasing power of the dollar.

As to this last point, the feds have gotten nowhere. They wear down their teeth for nothing. Prices are going down, not up. Houses are 30% cheaper than they were in 2006. Hotel rooms are 20% cheaper than last year. You want a luxury room? Just ask for an upgrade. Chances are good that no one is renting the luxury suites. Just make them an offer. Discounts are available almost everywhere. The Sony Playstation, for example, is now available – 25% off.

Stocks are cheaper too. They’ve been going up for the last seven months, but they’re still about a third less than they were in 2007.

Stocks fell again on Friday. Investors began to fret that maybe…just maybe…the authorities don’t have this zombie problem under control.

“Jobs news gets worse,” The New York Times tells us.

Since the stock market began going back up in March, the United States has lost 2.5 million jobs. It has lost jobs every month since December 2007. Now, unemployment – officially at one in ten workers – is the worst it has been in 26 years.

What kind of recovery is this? We don’t know, but if it continues much longer we’ll all be unemployed.

But not to worry, dear reader. Secretary of the Treasury Tim Geithner says the signs of recovery are “stronger” than expected.

We wonder what signs he’s looking at. Of course, this is the same doctor who was on the scene at the New York Fed when strange things began happening. The financial industry started acting funny in the bubble years…spending money like there was no tomorrow. And then, wouldn’t you know it, there wasn’t any tomorrow. They dropped dead in the crash of ’07-’08. But with huge injections from the Fed, they’ve turned into Zombies.

Of course, Tim Geithner missed the whole thing. So maybe he’s not the best source of recovery sightings.

A survey by Business Roundtable tells us that the ranks of the unemployed are likely to swell. Only 13% of employers have plans to hire more workers. The rest are either sitting tight…or turning workers loose.

Naturally, of all those people cut off from paychecks, more than a few are looking a little peaked. Their eyes sink back in their heads. Their skin turns grey. Soon, they’re starving for raw meat.

“Personal bankruptcies soar,” says The Wall Street Journal.

And not surprisingly, when they become desperate, they tend to default on their mortgages. We know already that auto sales drove off a cliff when the summertime ‘Cash for Clunkers’ program came to an end. Now, summer’s over. Housing sales should decline too – forcing more homeowners into default and foreclosure.

The zombies are having a depressing effect everywhere. The stock market went down again on Friday…the Dow fell 21 points. The oil market didn’t do much better, with the price of the black good still below $70.

As for gold, the yellow metal continues to hold above $1,000. It fell below $1,0 00 for just a couple days. On Friday, it was back to $1,004.

The $1,000 level used to be a ceiling for the gold price. Now it seems like a floor. Are the Chinese buying below $1,000? Maybe. Do we have a Beijing put option available to us? That is, has the risk been taken out of the gold market by China’s desire to stock its vault with something other than dollars? It is an intriguing thought. We don’t know the answer.

We are holding onto our gold. It’s insurance – protection against the feds. If they do something really stupid, the price of gold will soar. If they don’t do anything really stupid, well, we’ll be surprised. After all, they’ve already turned America into Zombieland.

On our last visit to the French countryside, in Normandy, we noticed a big pile of hay beside the road, with a sign on it: “Free Milk”

Another pile of hay had another message: “Farmers On Strike.”

The story behind these signs has a depression-era, black and white, look to it. Newsreels from the Great Depression show US farmers dumping milk rather than sell it at deflated prices. Now, French farmers do the same. Prices have fallen so low that many refuse to sell it at all.

But they can’t stop milking the cows. So what do they do with the milk? They give it away. Or, in a few instances, they throw it at the government’s farm agency offices.

Meanwhile, a story in The New York Times explains one of the reasons why milk has become so cheap. New technology makes it easier and cheaper to produce good milk cows.

Technology and globalization are inherently deflationary. The former increases productivity, thus lowering the cost of output. The latter lowers prices by directing business to the world’s lowest-cost producers.

Deflation is the natural order of things. Inflation is always an artifice caused by government. Central banks ‘target’ a certain level of inflation because they think – or say they think – that a bit of inflation helps create full employment. And it does, sometimes. But it does it by treachery. Inflation hoodwinks the working class. It reduces their real wages, making them cheaper to employ. Then, the proles wise up. They realize that prices are rising. They demand more wage increases. That is when inflation begins to get out of control and presidents get out the ‘Whip Inflation Now’ buttons.

Every time government offers to solve a problem, it inevitably makes the problem worse – except, occasionally, in rare episodes when a government-organized national defense pays off.

Two interesting news items in the British press, one inspiring…one pathetic.

The first concerns how to fight terrorism…and win! Terrorists use the local population in Northwest Pakistan like the New Jersey militia used the local population of Pennsylvania when it was putting down the Whisky Rebellion. That is, they barge into houses and demand food and lodging.

One brave man said ‘no.’

The terrorists were giving him a good thrashing when his daughter took the initiative. She hit one with an axe, took is AK47, and shot him dead. The other two fled.

Once again, we see how private initiative – at negligible cost – can succeed where trillion-dollar government boondoggles fail. Why make a federal case out of it? Got a problem with a terrorist? Whack him!

The other story was front-page fodder for the Telegraph last week. It illustrated the real problem with suicidal people – they think only of themselves.

A young woman was depressed because she couldn’t have children. She decided to kill herself. She drank poison…and then called the ambulance. At the hospital, she was still conscious and told doctors that under UK legislation she had a “right to die.” The doctors were forbidden from treating her. She died.

Naturally, her parents were upset. Hadn’t the doctors taken an oath? Weren’t they morally bound to intervene, no matter what the law said? She made them all complicit in a homicide. A more considerate person would have stayed home.

Until tomorrow,

Bill Bonner

Source: Welcome to Zombieland

Good day… And a Wonderful Wednesday to you… Instead of a “turn around Tuesday”, we’re seeing a whiplash Wednesday! And for once in a month of Sundays, the Big Dog, euro didn’t lead the other little dogs (currencies) off the porch to chase the dollar down the street!

No… This time it was the currencies of Australia and New Zealand that led the charge VS the dollar… The euro has taken up the charge since opening the doors to a new day of trading in Europe, so… It looks like it’s a “take the dollar to the woodshed day”…

OK… Let’s start first with the goings on yesterday and then build to a big crescendo! Yeah, right, like I can do that! HA! Any way…

As a reminder, yesterday we had the Russian rate cut, and the Japanese Fin Min giving the dollar a boost… We then saw some data that at first glance seemed to be good, but a quick look under the hood told the markets otherwise… Home Prices fell in July VS June, but are still down 13.3% VS last year… And Consumer Confidence surprised everyone by falling this month. It was expected to gain. So… As the day went on, it just didn’t look like the U.S. data would be strong enough to cause dollar selling…

But then, overnight, we had a strong Retail Sales report in Australia, and a strong Business Confidence report in New Zealand, and the “global recovery thoughts” were back on! Game on, as Wayne and Garth would say! Yesterday morning, the Russian rate cut said “step back on the thoughts for a global recovery”… And then overnight, the reports from Australia and New Zealand said, “step forward on the thoughts for a global recovery”!

And so it is… We end the month, and quarter with the dollar on the losing end VS many currencies… This marks the second consecutive quarter of dollar losses… Does that sound like a trend to anyone? To me, I do not consider this to be a “new trend”, but instead, simply a return to the underlying weak dollar trend, that went dormant for 6 months while the world sorted out the financial meltdown.

This is where, when I go out on the road and speak to people, I say that trends are not One Way Streets… There can be volatility within the trend. And thus this explains the 6 months from August of 2008 trough Feb of 2009… For most people that got into diversification using currencies and precious metals, they saw it for what it was, and simply battened down the hatches, and looked for deep discounts to add to their diversification… For some people, who got in for all the wrong reasons, and never thought about diversification, then they panicked and sold out at losses… For those that battened down the hatches, they were rewarded with this latest 6-month move… And that’s all I’m going to say about that!

The boys and girls over at the IMF are trying really hard to keep the currencies in check and not let this become another rout on the dollar. The IMF issued a statement saying that there are still risks in the global recovery… Unfortunately, for the IMF, nobody is listening to them, judging from the dollar selling I’ve seen since I came in this morning!

Hey! I don’t give the French much credit for anything… But I did see last night that they are cutting taxes on business! WOW! What a novel idea! And one that I think would behoove the current U.S. administration to follow… This is really a great way to get real traction in the economy… Give Businesses more room to breathe, and they will hire people, expand capital purchases, etc. Good show!

Yesterday, I was interviewed by Reuters for a story on dollar / yen… I was then quoted in a story that ran later in the day. I had said when I hung up the phone, that it would have been easier if the writer had just read the Pfennig that day! All I did was tell them what I had already told you in the Pfennig much earlier in the day! But… It was great to see my name in a national story anyway, eh?

OK… Getting back to Aussie and Kiwi… The Aussie Retail Sales report for August climbed .9%, erasing the -.9% loss in July! This report plays well with the recovery story and the thoughts that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) will raise rates before year-end…

New Zealand saw their Employment Confidence Index climb to 103 last quarter, from 96.1, the previous 3 months… The report showed that 32.2% of companies surveyed, expected sales and profits to rise over the next 12 months… I know that doesn’t sound like a resounding vote of confidence, but the previous number was 26%… So that’s quite a jump!

Of these two, I expect The RBA to lead with the rate hikes, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will drag its feet… They don’t need the kiwi to start rising aggressively, as exporters in New Zealand are having a tough time now, with kiwi as strong as it is now!

Whenever the Commodity Currencies of Australia and New Zealand have good performances VS the dollar, the other Commodity Currencies get to play along… So that means the performances VS the dollar of Canada, South Africa, Norway, and Brazil have been good.

There is some risk in the currency markets today though… First, we have some data due, and second we have Fed Vice Chairman Donald Kohn, and European Central Bank (ECB) President, Trichet, due to speak today… Could this be more Central Bank parlance for propping up the dollar, that is seen as being on the skids again this morning? I think it just might… Especially, if Kohn doesn’t mention that the Fed is going to keep rates at near zero for some time to come. If we don’t hear that… Then I think the “con” is on to prop up the dollar…

But don’t let that bother you too much… These guys can only affect the currencies for short periods of time with their verbal jawboning… After that, they need to walk the walk with coordinated intervention, if they’re going to talk the talk!

Speaking of the data… We’ll see the color of the 2nd QTR GDP, and the wild and wacky ADP Employment Change reports… The Chicago PMI (manufacturing for that region) will also show its colors… All of these are expected to show improvement in the U.S. economy… And, if the trading pattern remains in place… Any signs of improvement in the U.S. economy normally results in more dollar weakness!

So… In the end, the data inducing dollar weakness, might be offset by the Central Bank jawboning… In which case, we’ll spend the day in a tight trading range for sure! But what happens if Kohn and Trichet, don’t support the dollar in their speeches? Then it will all be up to the data!

This morning, Canada will print their latest GDP report… The forecasts are for a very weak report… I’m going to go out on a limb, yes it will be a big fat one to support me, and say that I expect Canada’s GDP to surprise on the up-side… If so, the loonie would look to add to gains it already has booked this morning VS the dollar.

With the Commodity Currencies on the rise this morning, Gold has returned to $1,000! Gold remained below $1,000 for about 5 days, in which there were ample opportunities to buy the dips below $1,000…

And… As we close out the month and quarter, the Russian rate cut is all but forgotten about, which is exactly how I told you it would play out… The global recovery theme is back with a vengeance!

OK… I’m going to step up on the soap box now, so if you do not care to listen to another Chuck soap box rant, then skip ahead two paragraphs!

You know… We wouldn’t be having these discussions about dollar weakness every day, if the Budget Deficits weren’t piling up on top of other deficits… Hey! Remember when I used to take the previous administration to the woodshed for piling up $450 Billion dollar Budget Deficits? Well, that certainly seems to be but a drop in the bucket of the nearly $2 Trillion Budget Deficit that will post this year, and the forecast for $9 Trillion more in the next 9 years…

That all leads me to this… We need to express to our representatives in Washington D.C. that is very important, and the they should focus their attention on this first and foremost! I doubt that we’ll ever get there again, but, wouldn’t that be nice for our grand kids? I just don’t understand why we go around spending money on this that and the other things, and don’t ever stop to think about the immoral things we are doing to our future generations… I guess I mean to say that the “we” I’m talking about is not you and me! It’s the knuckleheads in D.C… That is, other than Ron Paul, who seems to be the only person in D.C. that understands all this deficit spending…

Ok, down from the soap box now… You’re free to move about the Pfennig!

To recap… Aussie and kiwi lead the currencies higher VS the dollar overnight, after each respective country printed a strong economic report, thus putting the global recovery thoughts back on track. We have data, and Central Bank speeches to navigate through today. The non-dollar currencies close a second consecutive quarter of gains VS the dollar, and Gold has returned to $1,000….

Currencies today 9/30/09: A$ .8835, kiwi .7220, C$ .9330, euro 1.4665, sterling 1.61, Swiss .9725, rand 7.4240, krone 5.7675, SEK 6.96, forint 183.90, zloty 2.88, koruna 17.1570, RUB 30, yen 89.50, sing 1.41, HKD 7.75, INR 48.11, China 6.8264, pesos 13.48, BRL 1.7870, dollar index 76.56, Oil $67.78, 10-year 3.31%, Silver $16.48, and Gold… $1,003.45

That’s it for today…Be sure to make today a Wonderful Wednesday!

Chuck Butler

Source: Whiplash Wednesday!

Although I have great sympathy for the deflation crowd, given the reckless attitude of the central bankers and their ability to create debt-based money, I do not believe deflation (contraction in the supply of money and total debt) is very likely.

For sure, in this post-bubble environment, American consumer debt continues to contract, but this is being more than offset by the expansion in federal debt. Over the past year alone, federal debt in America has surged from US$9.645 trillion to US$11.813 trillion. In other words, during the past twelve months, American federal debt has risen by a shocking 24.47% and it now stands at 83.52% of GDP! Now, given the ability of the American establishment to essentially create dollars out of thin air, I have no doubt in my mind that it be able to inflate the economy. However, this will come at a huge cost and the victim will be the American currency.

In fact, the recent weakness in the US dollar is a sign that central-bank sponsored inflation has started to dominate the private-sector debt contraction in the West. Furthermore, over the past few weeks, various governments have issued US dollar-denominated debt and this suggests that the carry-trade is back in vogue. In a startling move, Germany recently announced that it plans to borrow money in US dollars!

Now, given the ongoing federal debt inflation, debasement of paper currencies, sky-high budget deficits and competitive currency devaluations, the macro-economic environment has never been better for precious metals. Yet, both gold and silver continue to frustrate the bulls by staying below the record-highs recorded in spring 2008.

So, what is going on here? Have we already seen the end of the precious metals bull-market or are we about to witness an explosive rally? Before I attempt to answer this question, I want to make it clear that even though gold failed to better its all-time high during last autumn’s panic, it was the only asset, (apart from US Treasuries) which stayed relatively firm. And looking at the various markets today, gold is the only asset that is flirting with its all-time high. So, whether you like it or not, gold deserves some credit for fulfilling its role as a safe haven.

Now, unlike some of the die-hard gold bugs, I don’t believe that gold is the ultimate asset to own at all times. Without a doubt, there have been times in history when gold has proven to be a lousy investment. For instance, between 1980 and 2001, the nominal price of the yellow metal fell by an astonishing 70%. This horrible price action spawned an entire generation who grew up hating gold and up until a few years ago, the vast majority considered gold a barbaric relic.

However, during other periods in history, when macro-economic uncertainty was high and inflationary expectations were running out of control, gold turned out to be a fantastic asset to own.

If my take on the macro-economic situation is valid, then we are in such a period now and gold must form a part of every investment portfolio.

You may remember that over the past year, central banks have injected trillions of dollars into the banking system and it is only a matter of time before inflationary expectations start spiraling out of control. Up until now, this ‘stimulus’ money hasn’t permeated through the economy in the West but once money velocity picks up, prices will start rising and the investment community will become very concerned about inflation. When the deflation scare abates and people start protecting the purchasing power of their savings, capital will start to flow towards precious metals.

Long-term clients and subscribers will recall that about two years ago, I highlighted gold’s tendency to rocket higher every other year. Figure 1 captures this trend perfectly and you can see that since the outset, gold’s bull-market has been punctuated by lengthy consolidations and the yellow metal has surged to a new high every alternate year.

Figure 1: Is gold about to shine?

So, if gold remains in a bull-market and its trend consistency is intact, its price should surge over the following months. Conversely, if the price of gold fails to climb above its all-time high before year-end, it should start to ring alarm bells as this would open up the possibility that the bull-market may be over. Remember, certainty does not exist in the investment world and savvy investors should remain open to all outcomes.

Now, given the uncertainty in the world today and the ticking inflationary time-bomb, my view is that gold will soon embark on its north-bound journey. So, I suggest that investors hold on to gold and the related mining companies which will probably continue to perform well until next spring.

As far as silver is concerned, it has always been a high-beta play on the direction of gold. If the next up leg in gold’s bull-market materialises, the price of silver will also head towards the heavens. Accordingly, investors may also want to allocate a portion of their investment portfolio to silver bullion and silver producing companies.

Regards,

Puru Saxena

Source:Inflation is Our Future

In my column last week, I showed you some of the spectacular moves that the four most actively traded commodities (oil, natural gas, gold and silver) have made over the past couple of years.

And when you see the wide trading ranges, it also gives you an idea of just how lucrative they can be.

But you don’t need to be an expert to take advantage. You just need to know how to play them intelligently, using strategies that minimize your risk and maximize your profit potential.

Easier said than done, right? Nope. That’s what I’m here for. And today, I’m going to show you how to add commodities to your portfolio in a much easier way than through futures or futures options, and a much better way than by just buying commodity stocks outright.

Two Reasons Why You Should Use A Put Option Strategy

Perhaps the best way to play commodities is through the options market.

But if you think “commodities and options” in the same sentence sounds scary, think again! Let me explain to you how you can do so, using one of my favorite strategies when you want to take a bullish stance.

It’s called “put-option selling.”

Let’s run through the basics first…

In the options market, a buyer of put options has a bearish stance on the underlying asset (be it the overall market, or stock). Alternatively, a seller of put options is adopting a neutral or bullish stance on the underlying asset.

And the flexibility of the options market allows you to sell options as an opening transaction instead of having to buy them.

In this case, we’re the put-option sellers – a technique that has a superb double benefit.

• You receive income upfront – yours to keep, no matter what happens with the rest of the trade.
• You have a chance to buy the underlying asset at the price you want – and at a large discount to the current price.

Here’s how it works…

Create Your Own “Discount Store”

Whenever you sell an option contract (either a call or put option), the option buyer pays you for it. This money is yours to keep and it gets immediately placed into your trading account.

When you sell a put option contract in particular, not only do you get the immediate cash payment, but you are also giving yourself the chance to buy the underlying asset at the (strike) price you select.

In short, someone is paying you cash so that you can buy the asset at the price you want. How great is that?

Let’s run through a hypothetical example – using the commodities market – to show how put-option selling is as simple as it seems…

Say you’re bullish on a gold stock, but the price has run up too much for your liking. You want to wait for a pullback to the 200-day moving average area before you buy.

Now that commodities exchange traded funds are an extremely popular and easy way to trade commodities, you decide that you’re going to use the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSE: GLD). Here’s how…

How to Buy Gold At the Price You Want

GLD tracks the price movement of physical gold and is roughly one-tenth the size of the front-month gold futures contract.

And because it’s an ETF, it trades just like a stock, so you can buy and sell it through a regular stock brokerage account.

However, with it currently trading around $97, you want to wait for a pullback to the $91 area before buying, as that’s the price at which you feel comfortable owning the shares.

So what’s the best way to take advantage? Regular investors may put in a stock buy order at $91 and hope GLD comes down to that level. But if it doesn’t, you’ve wasted your time.

Here’s where the put-selling strategy comes into play.

• Instead of placing a buy order, you could opt to sell a GLD December 2009 $91 strike put option contract (GLD-XM) for $1.40 per contract.
• What does this do for us? Well, for every put option contract you sell, the option buyer will immediately pay you $140 (because there are 100 shares in each options contract – $1.40 multiplied by 100 = $140).
• If you sell 10 of these put option contracts, you’ll receive $1,400 into your trading account.

That’s right… instant cash just for placing a trade. So what’s the catch? Only that you’re obligating yourself to buy those GLD shares at $91 – which is the price you want!

However, you must ensure that you only sell as many contracts as corresponds to the number of shares you want to buy. For example, if you sell just one contract, you’re obligated to buy 100 shares of GLD for $91 by options expiration. And if you sell 10 contracts, you’d be on the hook for 1,000 shares at that $91 price.

Get Proactive Through Put Option Selling & Get Cash

So instead of just sitting and waiting to see if GLD gets back down to $91 before you buy it, at least when you sell put option contracts, you pocket $1,400 in cash (on 10 contracts) while you wait.

It’s a win-win situation: not only do you get paid money while you wait, you still gain the opportunity to buy GLD shares at the price you want ($91) if it trades back down there by options expiration.

Speaking of options expiration, let’s cover that scenario…

Your Two Scenarios At Options Expiration

Only two scenarios will occur when the December options expiration rolls around…

• If GLD is still trading above your strike price of $91, then the put options will expire worthless and you just keep the $1400 free and clear. The trade is now over.
• If GLD is trading below your strike price of $91, then you’ll be “assigned” the shares on your put options and will become a regular shareholder of GLD at $91 per share. At this point, you’ll have to pay cash in full for the shares. But remember, you get to buy GLD at your chosen price.

A few points to remember:

• You’re selling the put option contract as the opening transaction, not buying it.
• You can buy the option back any time you wish. You don’t need to wait for option expiration to take action.
• You must be approved to trade option contracts through your stockbroker. The broker will also require you to keep a portion of the money it would cost for the shares in your account during the trade (a “margin requirement”) – but not the full amount.
• If you’re assigned the shares, you simply take the same risk management actions you would for any other bullish stock position you own.

The Bottom Line on Selling Puts

If you’re bullish on a stock, but find the price is too high, why just hang around and wait for it to decline? You can earn some cash while you wait through the put-selling strategy.

If the stock ends up below your strike price (the price you want to buy the shares) at option expiration, then you succeeded in your quest. You’ll be able to buy the shares at your comfort level, while still retaining the cash paid to you on day one of the transaction. A no-brainer in my book.

Good investing,

Lee Lowell

Source: How to Buy Gold… At the Price You Want & Get Paid for It