After slashing its forecast for the region in March, the ADB reversed course in its updated Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2009. The bank said developing economies in Asia would grow by 3.9% this year, up from its previous forecast of 3.4%.

“Despite worsening conditions in the global economic environment, developing Asia is poised to lead the recovery from the worldwide slowdown,” said ADB Chief Economist Jong-Wha Lee.

However, the growth will not be evenly distributed. Economic growth in East Asia will be driven largely by China’s dynamic economy. But economic growth in Southeast Asia will be sluggish, because the recoveries of Vietnam and Indonesia will not be enough to offset weakness in Malaysia, Thailand and Cambodia.

ADB boosted its outlook for annual economic growth in China to 8.2% from 7% earlier this year, and the bank believes China’s economic expansion will accelerate to 8.9% next year. That will help push economic growth in East Asia to an annual rate of 4.4%, compared to 0.1% growth in Southeast Asia.

ADB had underestimated China’s resilience in March when it predicted just 3.6% growth for East Asia.

“In the People’s Republic of China, aggressive monetary easing and the massive fiscal stimulus package rolled out by the government bolstered the region’s largest economy, which is now expected to grow by 8.2% in 2009 and 8.9% in 2010, up from the March forecast of 7% and 8% respectively,” said ADB.

Indeed, the potency of China’s $587 billion (4 trillion yuan) stimulus plan caught many analysts off guard.  Two of the world’s key global institutions – the World Bank and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) – and a large swath of investment banks were forced to raise their 2009 and 2010 growth estimates for China’s economy after the country announced second-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.9%.

The OECD said it now expects China’s economy to grow by 7.7% this year and the World Bank boosted its projection to 7.2% growth.  GDP will expand by 9.3% in 2010, according to OECD estimates.

BNP Paribas SA (OTC: BNPQY), Barclays Capital, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM), UBS AG (NYSE: UBS), Morgan Stanley (MS), Standard Chartered Bank, and RBC Capital Markets all raised their forecasts for China’s economy as well.

China’s stimulus package gave the economy a big kick in the first half of the year, spurring bank lending and driving fixed asset investment. It even stimulated the oft-maligned Chinese consumer, boosting domestic demand while the market for exports remained dormant.

Chinese banks lent about $1.08 trillion (7.37 trillion yuan) in the first half of the year, nearly double the total loans extended throughout all of 2008.

Fixed-asset investment rose 33.5% in the first half year to $1.34 trillion (9.132 trillion yuan), according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). Investment in infrastructure rose 57.4% year-over-year, with spending on railways up 126.5% and highway spending up 54.7%. Property sales were up 53% in the first six months from a year earlier.

Of course, fixed-asset investment has been consistently strong in China for the past decade. The real turnaround in the past six months has been that the frugal Chinese consumer has begun to spend more liberally.

China’s retail sales in the first half of the year rose 15% to $859.6 billion (5.87 trillion yuan).

Still, the ADB did warn Asian countries that their strong recovery is still uncertain and said they should continue to carry out stimulus measures until Western countries catch up.

“The improved regional outlook should not make developing Asian economies complacent,” said Lee. “A protracted global slowdown or the hasty withdrawal of stimulus packages can degrade the region’s ongoing recovery.”

Source: Asian Economies to ‘Lead the Recovery,’ Says ADB

Here in the United States, at a cost of a mere $3 billion, the “Cash-for-Clunkers” program appears to have given new hope to the U.S. auto industry.

But that new hope is destined to be short-lived.

It’s true that – in terms of value delivered for the money invested – “Cash for Clunkers” has eclipsed every other stimulus program that has been tried. But the program has a projected lifespan of only three months, meaning it can’t reverse the powerful global forces that are destined to turn the U.S. auto market from leader to laggard on the global stage.

Financial Crisis Fallout Reshapes Sector

Thanks to the financial crisis whose impact continues to be felt, worldwide automobile demand had dropped on an overall basis since 2008.

But regional differences are already emerging.

In the United States, for instance, the benchmark seasonally adjusted annual sales rate (SAAR) finally jumped up past the 11-million mark in July after failing to eclipse the “breakeven point” of 10 million vehicles in any prior month this year. But the actual year-to-date sales of 5.81 million vehicles through July was still 33% below the 8.55 million that had been sold by that point in 2008, and is 67% below the all-time annual record of 17.4 million achieved in 2000 and 65% below the decade average of 16.4 million.

(Prior to the global financial crisis and accompanying recession – which prompted the U.S. auto industry to restructure and shift its breakeven point down to 10 million vehicles – the breakeven point was actually 16 million vehicle sales in a year. Below that point, several or all of the U.S. “Big Three” would be spinning their wheels in red ink.)

It’s a much different story abroad, however, where several markets are in a long-term growth mode. In India, for example, sales were up 31% on a year-over-year basis, while auto sales in China were an astonishing 70% above those of a year ago. Even if U.S. auto sales continue to improve, China’s automobile market may outsell its U.S. counterpart for a full year for the first time ever.

Granted, India’s auto market – around 2.5 million cars and light trucks a year – is still much smaller than either China or the United States. However, its growth makes it comparable to the Japanese or German markets, the next largest automobile markets after its U.S. and China counterparts.

Thus, global automobile sales are undergoing a major reorientation towards Asia and away from the United States and Europe. This will inevitably have a huge effect on the structure of the sector.

That’s why Asia will become the new Detroit – the future center of the automaking world.

Gone For Good?

In the United States, General Motors Corp. and Chrysler Group LLC have lost market share because of the government takeover. They are unlikely to get it back in spite of the debt costs they have relinquished through bankruptcy.

For Chrysler, the partnership with Fiat SpA (OTC ADR: FIATY) is unlikely to help much. Fiat is among the weakest of the European companies, and has not been competitive in the United States since the 1980s. The U.S. market is undoubtedly moving toward smaller automobiles. That trend is being “fueled” by the new Corporate Average Fuel Economy (CAFE) standards for 2015 and probably by higher fuel taxes for environmental and budget reasons. Nevertheless, it seems unlikely that the Chrysler/Fiat partnership will have the models to compete.

General Motors has the model range to compete in the United States. However, GM is doing much better in China, thanks largely to its joint venture with Shanghai Automotive Industry Corp., which expects to sell 1.4 million vehicles in 2009. Since GM is also selling Opel, its European operation, GM (NYSE:GRM) will find itself driven primarily by the demands of the Chinese market. Given the growth of that market, it will probably make the most economic sense for GM to become Chinese-owned. Politics may delay this, but probably only for a few years.

The United States’ One “Better Idea”

Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) has picked up market share in the United States from GM and Chrysler’s problems. It should benefit both from “Cash for Clunkers,” and from the early stages of the U.S. market recovery. If GM and Chrysler continue to have difficulties, Ford may be in a good position here in the large U.S. market – as the most-effective manufacturer of the large automobiles that Americans continue to prefer – no matter what the government tells Ford to do.

Nor is that Ford’s only competitive advantage going forward. Ford Europe is big and viable enough to allow Ford to remain credible as a producer of smaller cars, primarily in the higher price brackets.

Outside the United States, European manufacturers will find themselves increasingly confined to the luxury end of the market. However, as global incomes rise and the newly wealthy become brand-conscious – particularly in the emerging economies of Asia – that upscale portion of the auto market should continue to be strong.

Japanese and Korean manufacturers will continue to dominate their domestic markets. And such companies as Honda Motor Co. Ltd. (NYSE ADR: HMC), Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE ADR: TM) and Kia Motors Corp., will also do well in the United States and Europe, and in countries where they have been able to establish viable local manufacturing operations, and lower labor costs.

But it will be the players from China and India who are destined to be the big market-share gainers on a global basis.

The New Leaders

For U.S. investors, India’s Tata Motors Ltd. (NYSE ADR: TTM) is the best known of the newly emerging global auto elite. Tata’s $2,500 for-the-masses “Nano” car has been well received. Over the long term, the Nano may expand the entry-level portion of the worldwide auto market, forcing other manufacturers to produce equivalent low-price models.

Indeed, the introduction of $2,500 cars may greatly expand the market’s size in India and other emerging markets, much as Ford’s Model T did after its introduction in 1908, or the Volkswagen AG (OTC ADR: VLKAY) VW Beetle did in the 1950s and 1960s.

Tata looked to be in financial difficulty after it bought the loss-making Jaguar and Land Rover brands in 2008 at the top of the market. However, the $300 million loan for its Jaguar Land Rover Unit announced on Aug. 10 gives Tata the room it needed to maneuver. Market growth in India, combined with the strength of its Tata Group parent now suggest that Tata Motors has the strength to survive without dismemberment.

The bottom line: Tata and its India-based competitors – Maruti Suzuki India Ltd. (Mumbai: MSIL) and Mahindra and Mahindra Ltd. (London: MHID) – as well as such top China carmakers as Chery Automobile Co. Ltd. (still publicly owned), Geely Automobile Holdings Ltd. (OTC: GELYF) and Great Wall Motor Co. (OTC: GWLLF), are thus the companies that will see most growth in the automotive market of the decade to come.

By 2020, the global auto sector will look nothing like it does today. Given that most of the muscle will be in Asia, investors shouldn’t be surprised.

Source: Why Asia Will Supplant Detroit as the Global Center of the Auto Industry

Most of the time, backdoor plays offer the largest profits in growth industries like this one. Sometimes, however, a straightforward approach is your best chance at the quickest gains. This is one of those times.

Take China Mobile (NYSE:CHL), for instance. This telecom behemoth is the most obvious play in the region. In the last three years, the company doubled the number of subscribers and grew its bottom line 107%. That’s a rare feat for a $230 billion company.

China Mobile’s growth is impressive, but it’s nothing compared with what a small-cap player can do in this field. And with the telecom industry in Asia predicted to almost double by 2013, there’s plenty of room for other players to grow too.

That’s why we’ve been looking for under-the-radar Internet providers in Asia. And we just we found the only place worth looking at…

The Forgotten Power in Asia: Investing in Hong Kong

Most people think of China, India and Japan when you bring up Asia. The place most often left out of the conversation is Hong Kong — a Chinese territory that in 1997 ended 156 years of British rule.

Other than the small island nation of Brunei, Hong Kong has the largest GDP per capita in the entire region. In fact, the small territory is No. 14 in the whole world, and it’s only four spots behind the U.S.

Most are writing Hong Kong off these days, however. With the recent global financial collapse, Hong Kong’s large financial services industry was slaughtered. Even so, the world can’t just forget about this tiny-but-affluent region.

The Hong Kong Stock Exchange, for instance, is host to companies worth a total $2.7 trillion. That’s 10 times larger than the American Stock Exchange!

Another surprising tidbit about Hong Kong is the resilience of its tourism industry. While nearly every country in the world saw a decline in number of tourists, as well as income from its tourism industry, Hong Kong actually saw its tourism grow. Last year, the number of visitors to Hong Kong grew 5%, and average spending per overnight visitor grew 6.2%.

Needless to say, this is an overlooked region, but it shouldn’t be. Hong Kong is very capable of producing winners.

Right now, there is a small handful of exciting Hong Kong telecom plays that are worth looking at, but unfortunately, at this stage, it’s a case of look but don’t touch. Many of them are too speculative to mention here right now.

Watch the region — we’ll let you know when that changes.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

Source: How to Profit from the Asian Internet Boom

The suits on the Street ask themselves these questions every day. They don’t realize that these superpowers aren’t the only places you can make big money.

Indonesia has the world’s fourth largest population, over 200 million people, but it ranks no. 16 in GDP purchasing power. Poverty and disease plague this sleeping giant. That’s why the median age of the country is just 28 years old.

The country has made some progress of late through the presidency of Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. Elected in 2004, Yudhoyono was an already important and popular figure in Indonesia after a few stints in the first couple cabinets of the fairly new democracy. He has the rank of General and is a very influential military leader worldwide.

He continues to stay popular and will, in all probability, get reelected later this year. Yudhoyono is not only a military-focused politician, he’s also an economic visionary in a country that desperately needs that kind of vision.

In just his first term, he’s already signed an important trade agreement with Japan, opening his country’s enormous population to the world’s second largest economy.

Barack Obama recently invited Yudhoyono to the White House to discuss the U.S.’s role in helping developing countries during this economic recession. The two met again a few weeks later at the G-20, which Indonesia recently joined.

All of this prestige helped Yudhoyono make Time’s 100 Most Influential Persons list this year. But it’s also helped segments of Indonesia’s population obtain some new G-20 benefits.

Even with all of the international help, Indonesia may not ever become a superpower. But the country does provide unique opportunities…if you know where to look.

The Growth Story of the Century

One of the most exciting growth industries in the Far East is Internet service providers. According to InternetWorldStats.com, 73.8% of Japanese and 76.1% of South Koreans are online. Even about one in every four Chinese citizens now has Internet access…

Indonesia is trailing in the region with just 10.5% of its population online. Here’s our growth opportunity! In 2000, only two million Indonesians had the Internet. That number is set to reach 25 million this year.

But this growing ISP industry is only part of the story…

While Indonesia continues to struggle with some basic luxuries that the Western world takes for granted — such as cable television and wireless Internet access — its citizens do have cell phones. In fact, around 58% of the population already has a cell phone subscription — that’s over 130 million subscriptions.

Even with so many current subscribers, growth hasn’t slowed at all. The mobile phone industry is still growing at a 36% clip annually.

The reason I bring these two industries up together is because of a unique opportunity. I found a company with a 46% market share of both the broadband Internet and the cellular industries. That’s the top spot. This is like finding Ma Bell at the turn of the 20th century — minus the anti-trust issues.

You see, this company’s largest investor is the Indonesian government. It’s a rock solid company that I’ll be recommending early next week to my Lifetime Income Report readers.

Sincerely,
Jim Nelson

Source: A Second Chance to Buy AT&T at the Turn of the Century

This from Money Morning:

If you’re an emerging-markets investor, and you happened to peruse the study that the Institute for International Finance released this week, you must’ve experienced alarm – if not panic. The IIF expects the inflow of private funds into these markets to plunge to only $165 billion this year – an amount that’s just 18% of the $929 billion that flowed into these very same markets in 2007.

For investors, the message is clear: We’d better concentrate on those emerging markets whose inhabitants have hefty piggybanks of their own.

The details of the investment slowdown are as alarming as the headline. Bank loans to emerging markets will decline from an inflow of $165 billion to a net outflow of $61 billion. Private non-bank debt investment will decline from $125 billion to $31 billion, and even official flows will decline from $41 billion to $29 billion.

Net portfolio equity investment will remain negative, though the outflow will be only $3 billion compared to 2008’s $89 billion. Only direct foreign investment will increase, rising 12% from 2008 to $195 billion.

In terms of regions, emerging Europe will suffer worst, with inflows plummeting from 13% of regional gross domestic product (GDP) in 2007 to just 1% in 2009. Latin America will also suffer, with inflows dropping from 11% of regional GDP to 3%.

Overall, inflows to emerging markets will drop by 5.8% of emerging market GDP between 2007 and 2009 – almost double the declines of the late 1990s crisis (3.7% of emerging market GDP) and early 1980s (3.2%). Emerging market cash flows will also be affected by the need to repay $223 billion of private market debt this year.

This will cause a reordering of the economic pecking order in the emerging markets.

From 2003 to 2007, the availability of natural resources and/or cheap labor was more important than high foreign reserves or a big domestic savings base, so Argentina (natural resources) and emerging Europe (cheap labor, relative to the EU average) did well. In 2009, access to capital will be more critical than either of those other strengths. Countries without a large domestic savings base, or with substantial balance-of-payments deficits, or with low foreign exchange reserves, are likely to suffer badly.

Many emerging Europe countries have balance of payments deficits exceeding 10% of GDP so will suffer badly. Within that region, the Baltic states – fairly uncorrupt and friendly to foreign investment – will do much better than Romania and Bulgaria, which are both corrupt and xenophobic.

In Latin America, Brazil has an excellent domestic savings base, which it has been nurtured by policies that keep interest rates much higher than the rate of inflation. It is also quite friendly to foreign direct investment. Hence, in spite of its high foreign debt, Brazil should do fine.

Conversely, Mexico has a lower domestic savings base, relies heavily on remittances from Mexicans in the United States (which have declined sharply) and is quite hostile to foreign investment, particularly in the energy sector. Hence it is likely to have a tough year.

In Asia, China – with huge domestic savings, $1.95 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, and low foreign borrowing – will do fine. Conversely, India’s high domestic savings are offset by a profligate government, which runs a wasteful deficit of more than 10% of GDP. Hence India is quite reliant on foreign borrowing, and is likely to have problems.

For investors, the message is clear. Our emerging markets investments must be concentrated in countries that will not be badly affected by the decline in foreign capital inflows, preferably where domestic savers have piggybanks that are large enough to fund expansion locally. In particular, without delving into particular stocks, the following country-specific exchange traded funds (ETFs) are worth looking at:

• The iShares MSCI Brazil Index (NYSE:EWZ) has net assets of $3.4 billion, a Price/Earnings (P/E) ratio of 7.0, and a dividend yield of 6%. Money Morning Contributing Editor Horacio Marquez recently recommended this Brazilian ETF in this weekly “Buy, Sell or Hold” series.
• The iShares MSCI Chile investable index (NYSE:ECH) has net assets of only $112 million and a P/E of 13. However, Chile is interesting because it built up a reserve fund of $21 billion (12% of GDP) during the years when copper prices were high – it is thus not dependent on foreign-fund inflows.
• The iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (NYSE:FXI) invests in the 25 largest Chinese companies. Net assets are $5.9 billion, its P/E ratio 10, and its yield 2.7%.
• The iShares MSCI Taiwan Index (NYSE:EWT) has net assets of $1.3 billion, a P/E of 9 and a yield of 8%. Taiwan is highly liquid, with large reserves, a high savings rate and almost no foreign debt
• The iShares MSCI Singapore Index (NYSE:EWS) has net assets of $800 million, a P/E of 9 and a yield of 8%. Like Taiwan, Singapore is highly liquid, with large foreign exchange reserves and little debt. Taiwanese and Singapore companies may indeed benefit from the liquidity crunch by finding attractive investment opportunities in regional cash-short emerging markets with high growth potential, such as Vietnam.

Source: The Five Most Promising Emerging Markets ETFs for 2009

For investors in survivor mode, the report may be interpreted as an investment roadmap with a relatively safe course.

The report, titled Global Employment Trends, is an annual survey from the International Labour Office (ILO), arm of the U.N that brings together governments, employers and workers to jointly shape policies and programs for fair and humane employment practices.

Based on new developments in the labor market, the report says global unemployment in 2009 could increase over 2007 by a range of 18 million to 30 million workers, and more than 50 million if the situation continues to deteriorate.

The ILO also said that in this last scenario some 200 million workers, mostly in developing economies, could be pushed into extreme poverty.

The lowest unemployment rate was observed in East Asia at 3.8%, followed by South Asia and South-East Asia & the Pacific where respectively 5.4 and 5.7% of the labor force was unemployed in 2008, according to the ILO.

As per the report, three Asian regions – South Asia, South-East Asia & the Pacific and East Asia – accounted for 57% of global employment creation in 2008. In the Developed Economies and European Union region, 900,000 jobs were lost in 2008.

Compared with 2007, the largest increase in a regional unemployment rate was observed in the Developed Economies and European Union region, from 5.7 to 6.4%. The number of unemployed in the region jumped by 3.5 million in one year, reaching 32.3 million in 2008.

In looking at the breakdown of the Asian regions identified in the report, we see countries where cheap labor abounds. While this may not be the best possible news for the ILO, the lower unemployment rates in Asia could show an acceleration in outsourcing – not just from the industrialized West, but from mature emerging markets such as China and India.

For example, South Asia consists of India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and other countries. Pakistan’s large-scale manufacturing efforts have stumbled over the past few years due to rising commodity costs. Now that commodity prices have plunged, and manufacturers seek out lowest cost providers, Pakistan could see a turning point in this sector.

Bangladesh, meanwhile, has seen exports rise 60% since 2004. It is now the second largest exporter of apparel to the U.S. market after China.

Southeast Asia consists of Cambodia, Laos, Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam and Malaysia. Given their proximity to China and India, these countries could see trickle-down business as the two emerging-market giants move away from knock-offs to creating original intellectual property.

In East Asia, the countries to watch for growth are Hong Kong, Macau, Japan and South Korea. Although the global recession has certainly put a damper on these fast-growing economies, the investment returns from these regions could outpace industrialized countries based the ILO’s employment numbers.

This could be a prudent time for investors to investigate ETFs and other funds that get you into these markets without the risk of cherry picking stocks.

This from Money Morning:

Despite what you might be hearing about a global recession, consumer capitalism is alive and well in China.

And it’s still fueling growth.

Take a stroll through Beijing’s trendy Wangfujing area, a quick walk south of Tiananmen Square or the six-story Shin Kong Place in Beijing’s Dawanglu area, and you’ll find more than 100 top international designer brands on sale, including Prada, Gucci, Bvlgari, Dolce & Gabbana, and others. While you’re on the prowl, don’t forget Xidan Market, which the locals prefer. It’s also bursting at the seams from countless stores, fashionable-clothing shops and, of course, the ubiquitous and ever-present Starbucks (NYSE:SBUX).

In contrast to other global markets, like the Ginza, Beverly Hills’ Rodeo Drive or London’s Oxford Street, for example, where a heavy silence hangs over the once-bustling shopping areas, the sounds of commerce are everywhere.
Literally.

Cash registers clink and clank, and credit-card machines whiz, but not where most people would predict.

With the deepening of the global recession, throngs of Chinese consumers and expats no longer willingly stand for 40 minutes to get into stores selling Gucci, Vuitton and other top-end items. Instead, they’re pushing their way into places with names like Uniqlo (pronounced “uni-clo”), Lavinia, and Blur – all of which were once regarded as the illegitimate children of yuppie-dom, because of their bargain-based orientation.

Lately, though, they’re the unsung heroes. That might strike you as strange because Uniqlo hails from Japan, while Lavinia comes from Italy. Only Blur is a native Chinese operation. But all three specialize in providing high quality at super reasonable prices.

It’s always fun for me to shop at Uniqlo, in particular, since my family and I shop there each year when we’re home in Kyoto. Just to be unique, I often pick up something for my wife and kids from China’s Uniqlo stores. The service is top notch and I can’t help but chuckle over the fact that I can buy several shirts for less than I would ordinarily pay for just one in Europe, or here in the United States.

Locals – like my friends Hao Jun and Hairong Zhao – tell me the situation is much the same among China’s yuppies, or “Chuppies,” as they’re now known.

“We’re still buying what we like, if we can afford it,” Hairong says.

And judging from the latest figures, which said China’s domestic consumption advanced at a mind-boggling 28% in 2008, there’s lots to like.

Depending on which studies you believe, Chuppies account for slightly more than 7% of the population. That doesn’t sound like much, but that puts the number of Chuppies at more than 100 million – every one of them with a middle class income, appetite and purchasing power that can be expected to grow.

Granted, China’s overall consumption is slowing and 2009’s domestic growth could slow to the mid-teens, but that’s still more than double what we’re likely to experience here in the United States, or in Europe.

For some, this slowdown is the end game. But others understand that this is just the beginning. I’m in that latter camp, having spent considerable time in the region over the past two decades – more than enough to watch several boom-and-bust cycles in both Japan, and China, and to understand how they work and what to look for.

“While it’s clear that Chuppies can’t replace a drop in Western consumerism [all] on their own,” said my good friend and noted China expert, Robert Hsu, “they’re still spending in many sectors – like education, for example. And the government is still spending on the infrastructure that enables financial growth.”

That’s a mantra I’ve spent years encouraging investors to take to heart, if for no other reason than there will be growth “because” of Chinese policy that’s not just limited to the growth taking place “in” China. And that, in turn, leads to some appealing investment opportunities – particularly now that the markets have beaten the share prices of so many superb companies down so significantly.

Assuming this strategy is correct, history suggests there are two potential ways to profit. Clearly the results won’t be immediate, nor will they be straight up – like the returns we saw a few years ago, during China’s earlier period of frenetic growth.

Nevertheless, the payoffs to come could well be the best we see for a generation or more.

First, savvy investors in sync with Chinese buying patterns can target companies that sell to Chuppies, like New Oriental Education & Technology Group Inc. (NYSE:EDU), the Beijing-based provider of private-educational services, and YUM! Brands Inc. (NYSE:YUM), the well-run global operator of the KFC, Pizza Hut and Taco Bell fast-foot-restaurant chains. Both companies are enjoying superb year-over-year sales growth in China – even in the face of worsening global economic conditions. [For Money Morning's recent report on Yum Brands' successes in China, please click here. The report is free of charge.]
Second, investors who believe that infrastructure is the way to go can easily choose from dozens of companies engaged in China’s great economic build-out, including choices related to rail, air and construction.

Third, still another choice is to invest directly in the Chinese Yuan (Renminbi). Not only is China’s currency continuing to appreciate and gather strength; it’s likely to emerge as one of the world’s most powerful currencies, once both the dollar and euro are eviscerated.

Undoubtedly, a good number of people reading this will take issue with my assessment. And I don’t blame them. On the surface, it appears that China may be all washed up.

However, at a time when our own economy is sliding into a deep, dark hole, China’s relentless march forward suggests that this Asian country not only has a more promising future; it will emerge as an important economic and political force to be reckoned with.

Not to mention a powerful investment opportunity.

Source: China’s “Chuppies” Point the Way to Growth and Profits

Singapore’s declining forecasts raises questions about the government’s competence (or propaganda) and the duration of the global recession.

It was the second time in three weeks that Singapore lowered expectations. Whether this is government ineptitude or an ever-deepening economic sinkhole, the results are still the same for investors. If you’re already in Singapore, do you bail or hold? And if you’re not in Singapore, well, good for you.

Because yesterday, the city-state of Singapore said its economy should shrink by 2% to 5% as the year unfolds. It’s yet one more downward prediction from just three weeks ago, when the government predicted a worst-case decline of 2% and possible growth of 1%.

Now, with yesterday’s numbers, the government is blaming increasingly gloomy forecasts for important manufacturing exports such as electronics and chemicals.
That translated into a 4.1% decline in manufacturing last year.

From a global perspective, Singapore’s importance belies its size. Singapore is a major trade and finance hub. Economists consider it a leading indicator for Asia.

Singapore announced on Wednesday that GDP shrank at a seasonally adjusted annualized pace of 16.9% in the October-December period. Earlier this month, Singapore estimated its economy shrank in Q4 at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 12.5%. It was the biggest quarterly contraction since 1976.

The bad news is considered a harbinger of deteriorating numbers expected to come out of China, Japan and South Korea later this week. If you consider these emerging countries the proverbial canary in the coal mine, then it’s time to grab your hard hats and scramble the heck out of there.

We’ve always relied on the “Cell Phone Indicator” as a forecasting tool for potential economic growth in emerging economies. Now, based on a recent report, it looks like our long-term confidence in these nascent markets will hold fast despite the current malaise that has gripped the world.

Our informal “Cell Phone Indicator” posits that mobile communications have historically signaled the growth of a new economy. In many countries, cell phones are the only form of communications for an individual. Armed with a mobile gateway to the outside world, cell phones are literally the seeds to entrepreneurial growth. Craftsmen, farmers, fishermen, retailers – just about anyone involved in a small business – can order and ship products, and even exchange money, using these wireless, digital devices.

On a grander scale, widespread cell phone adoption indicates significant investments in national infrastructures. Towers, power stations and repeaters are installed to facilitate economic growth. From these, come the roads, harbors and bridges to help carry the goods from these wireless transactions.

Investors who ignore cell phones as an economic indicator do so at their own peril.

Now we have some new numbers just released that forecast explosive cell-phone growth in emerging markets. If these predictions are even remotely accurate, we can expect more rapid growth in many third-world countries that could harkens back to good old boom-town days of the so-called Commodity Supercycle.

According to Informa Telecoms & Media’s Global Mobile Forecasts, annual revenues from the global mobile market will top $1.03 trillion by 2013, when the number of subscriptions worldwide will have risen to more than 5.3 billion. The implications for investors are truly profound.

It took more than 20 years to reach 3 billion subscriptions, says the report, but another 1.9 billion net additions are forecast in just six years, with the global total nudging past the 5-billion by 2011.

Total annual revenues from mobile operators are expected to grow by over 30%, surging from $769 billion in 2007 to $1.03 trillion six years later.

Informa Telecoms & Media forecasts 78% of global net additions between 2007 and 2013 to come from markets in Asia Pacific, Africa and Latin America.

Five markets — India, China, Indonesia, Brazil and Russia – will account for 47% of those 1.9 billion new users.

By contrast, mature markets in North America and Western Europe will contribute just 8% of total global net adds, reflecting the high level of saturation in these markets.

The underlying message here is that we could see a real grass-roots growth in many of these countries – the kind of economic expansion that often slips under the radar of the major news outlets.

In January 2008, Beijing introduced new workplace legislation called the Labor Contract Law. Its objective was to ensure job security by making cursory dismissals more difficult. The Labor Contract Law comes in on heels of anti-discrimination labor laws instituted last year, which streamlined the process for workers to file grievances against their employers.

As a result, labor disputes have surged by approximately 119% since last year as workers exercise their new rights.

While the global recession throws a monkey wrench into China’s manufacturing engine, the Labor Contract law could compound the crisis by making labor in China more expensive. In fact, there is evidence that factories are already moving to Cambodia, Vietnam and Bangladesh, which promote owner-friendly labor laws.

If in fact this migration turns into a stampede, China’s entire economy could suffer longer term damage than anticipated. The higher salaries kicked in at a time when China’s manufacturing sector contracted for the fifth consecutive month in December, according to the CLSA China Purchasing Managers Index.

In the first 10 months of 2008, 15,661 enterprises in Guangdong, the manufacturing-heavy southern province, shut down. China’s manufacturing shrank for a third month in December as export demand fell, suggesting a long-drawn-out economic slump. Manufacturing comprises about 40% of China’s economic output. It comes as no surprise, therefore, that the World Bank forecast in November of last year China’s economic growth may slow down to 7.5% in 2009, the lowest since 1990.

While many of the closures are certainly tied to lower exports, factory owners are simply padlocking their doors rather than conform to the more restrictive and expensive labor laws – often absconding with the employees’ back pay.

The labor laws also sanction the once-unthinkable notion of labor unions in China. All employees are now eligible to joint the China Federation of Trade Unions (ACFTU), which is controlled by the Communist Party and has around 170 million members. The ACFTU is legally entitled to negotiate salaries, working hours, holidays, and benefits (although they are now allowed to strike). By the end of 2006, about 50,000 foreign companies in China entered into collective contracts and the ACFTU has said its goal to unionize nearly all foreign companies in the coming years.

While unionization and labor laws are long overdue for workers, they also create a new investment climate in China that could reduce windfall profits across the entire economy.